All four home teams won on wild card weekend, despite the fact that both #4 seeds were underdogs, especially the Denver Broncos, who were playing a team with 4 more regular season wins and a quarterback who has been to 3 Super Bowls in the last 7 years. The #3 seeds both won convincingly and increased their odds of advancing, although one has much better odds than the other. Here are the updated rankings of each team that made the playoffs this year, with gaps where non-playoff teams appear in the rankings. Eliminated teams are in italics.
TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. New Orleans (14-3) -13.50 (1)
2. Green Bay (15-1) -10.37 (2)
3. New England (13-3) -9.82 (3)
5. San Francisco (13-3) -7.85 (4)
6. Detroit (10-7) -5.95 (6)
7. NY Giants (10-7) -4.11 (10)
8. Baltimore (12-4) -3.85 (8)
9. Pittsburgh (12-5) -3.21 (7)
10. Houston (11-6) -2.86 (12)
13. Atlanta (10-7) -1.82 (9)
20. Cincinnati (9-8) 1.85 (18)
28. Denver (9-8) 6.26 (28)
Top 5 Teams Sitting at Home
4. Philadelphia
6. Detroit
9. Pittsburgh
11. Seattle
12. San Diego
Odds of Making the Conference Championship
1. New England - 100.0% (+16.9)
2. Green Bay - 77.5% (-2.2)
3. Baltimore - 62.7% (-4.3)
4. New Orleans - 55.8% (+12.5)
5. San Francisco - 44.2% (-7.5)
6. Houston - 37.3% (+15.1)
7. NY Giants - 22.5% (+12.4)
8. Denver - 0.0% (-0.5)
New England's odds increased the most this week because of the Steelers upset loss in Denver, leaving the best team in the AFC with one that shouldn't even be in the playoffs. New Orleans played the toughest first round opponent of any of the favorites, but still managed to win convincingly, making a showdown with Green Bay seem even more likely. Houston and New York increased their odds by winning close games, and Denver's odds disappeared despite their win, because Houston's win means that the Broncos must face New England next, a team they will not beat.
Odds of Making the Super Bowl
1. New England - 77.7% (+13.9)
2. Green Bay - 45.1% (-3.6)
3. New Orleans - 31.9% (+7.8)
4. San Francisco - 18.3% (-3.1)
5. Baltimore - 14.6% (-6.1)
6. Houston - 7.7% (+1.6)
Odds of Winning the Super Bowl
1. New England - 37.1% (+6.6)
2. Green Bay - 25.0% (-3.7)
3. New Orleans - 20.5% (+4.5)
4. San Francisco - 8.9% (-2.3)
5. Baltimore - 4.5% (-2.3)
Predictions
New Orleans at San Francisco - Saints by 2
Denver at New England - Patriots by 20
Houston at Baltimore - Ravens by 5
NY Giants at Green Bay - Packers by 10
Prediction Results
NFL: 3-1 (.750) 171-89 overall (.658)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 26-22 overall (.542)
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