The season has ended, and with Alabama's huge upset of LSU, no team has finished the season undefeated. Meanwhile, there are still 5 teams that lost only once this season. Because there is no playoff to crown a definitive champion, the best way to determine which team is best is by ranking them statistically based on performance and strength of schedule, which is exactly what I do. Are you ready to see who this year's national champion is? Here is my final top 25 of the season, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (ESPN)
1. (3) Alabama (12-1) -35.19 (1)
2. (1) LSU (13-1) -32.71 (2)
3. (2) Oklahoma State (12-1) -28.61 (3)
4. (4) Oregon (12-2) -25.89 (4)
5. (5) Wisconsin (11-3) -24.67 (11)
6. (6) Stanford (11-2) -24.48 (7)
7. (7) Oklahoma (10-3) -21.89 (15)
8. (9) Boise State (12-1) -21.08 (6)
9. (10) Houston (13-1) -19.45 (14)
10. (8) USC (10-2) -18.91 (NR)
11. (12) Arkansas (11-2) -18.15 (5)
12. (11) Michigan (11-2) -16.06 (9)
13. (13) Michigan State (11-3) -15.23 (10)
14. (14) Texas A&M (7-6) -14.95 (32)
15. (18) South Carolina (11-2) -14.53 (8)
16. (15) Baylor (10-3) -12.65 (12)
17. (16) Notre Dame (8-5) -12.64 (36)
18. (20) TCU (11-2) -12.63 (13)
19. (23) Georgia (10-4) -12.02 (20)
20. (NR) Southern Miss (12-2) -11.91 (19)
21. (NR) West Virginia (10-3) -11.71 (18)
22. (22) Texas (8-5) -11.70 (28)
23. (17) Kansas State (10-3) -11.02 (16)
24. (21) Florida State (9-4) -10.70 (23)
25. (24) Missouri (8-5) -9.88 (27)
Dropped Out
(19) California (7-6) -9.64 (NR)
(25) Vanderbilt (6-7) -9.09 (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 12 - 7
SEC - 5
Pac 12 - 3
Big 10 - 3
MWC - 2
CUSA - 2
Ind - 1
Big East - 1
ACC - 1
Bowl Record by Conference
1. Big 12 (6-2)
2. MAC (4-1)
2. CUSA (4-1)
4. SEC (6-3)
5. Big East (3-2)
6. Ind (1-1)
7. MWC (2-3)
8. Sun Belt (1-2)
9. Big 10 (4-6)
10. Pac 12 (2-5)
11. WAC (0-3)
12. ACC (2-6)
It is interesting to note that the conference with the best overall record in bowl games is the same one that has had the most teams in my rankings all season long. Is it a coincidence? No. This formula treats all teams equally and measures exactly how they should perform against any other team based on what they've already done, which also explains how I was able to predict over 70% of this season's games correctly.
The ACC, which has had only one or two ranked teams all season long according to my formula, ended up with the worst record of any conference in bowl games, highlighted by two embarrassing losses in the BCS, especially Clemson's 70-33 loss to West Virginia, the champion of a conference that has been looked down upon for a while among the BCS hierarchy.
Two of the non-AQ conferences ended up with 4-1 records in bowl games, including a 2-1 record against teams from the AQ conferences. Houston's 30-14 blowout of Penn State proved that the Cougars belonged in the top 10, where they spent a few weeks late in the season, and SMU manhandling Pitt, a co-champion of the Big East, showed that there is not as much separation between the bottom and top as many would like to believe.
Going into the championship game, LSU looked like they would end up on top of my rankings unless they were blown out, and it turns out that that was exactly what happened, dropping a team that had been sitting at #1 for nearly 2 months to #2, but not by a close margin. Alabama was the best team this season, although I wish we could have seen them prove it against Oklahoma State, Oregon, and some of the other top teams. At least they left no doubt with their shutout.
Prediction Results
College Football: 26-9 (.743) 398-158 overall (.716)
Upsets: 4-5 (.444) 49-72 overall (.405)
My upset percentage was not as high as I would have liked this season, but my overall pick percentage for college football rose from 66% last season to nearly 72% this year, which is quite a jump. Next year I'll aim to hit 75%, and I hope to have all of my followers back to watch it happen.
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