This week, several of the top 10 teams found themselves on the losing end of games against unranked opponents, and in nearly every case, that upset was predicted right here one week ago. Only three teams remain undefeated, with Syracuse and Baylor from the power conferences and Murray State from the Ohio Valley, which makes them the least likely to lose because they have fewer powerful opponents left to face. All of the upsets have shaken up the rankings, and don't expect the number of upsets to decrease with conference play in full swing. Here are my latest rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (ESPN)
1. (1) Ohio State (2-0) (15-2) -22.13 (5)
2. (3) Syracuse (2-0) (17-0) -18.51 (1)
3. (2) North Carolina (1-0) (14-2) -17.85 (3)
4. (6) Kansas (2-0) (12-3) -17.67 (10)
5. (10) Michigan State (1-0) (14-2) -17.39 (7)
6. (9) Duke (1-1) (13-2) -16.45 (6)
7. (5) Kentucky (2-0) (15-1) -16.35 (2)
8. (15) UNLV (1-0) (16-2) -15.96 (12)
9. (17) Missouri (1-1) (14-1) -15.95 (9)
10. (8) Indiana (2-0) (15-1) -15.68 (8)
11. (4) Wisconsin (0-2) (12-5) -15.24 (26)
12. (14) Murray State (2-0) (16-0) -13.57 (14)
13. (16) BYU (2-0) (14-4) -13.13 (NR)
14. (7) Saint Mary's (1-0) (14-2) -13.05 (27)
15. (11) Florida (1-1) (12-4) -12.91 (19)
16. (22) Kansas State (1-1) (12-2) -12.75 (18)
17. (NR) Iona (3-0) (13-3) -12.56 (NR)
18. (12) Wichita State (2-0) (12-3) -12.45 (35)
19. (19) Creighton (2-0) (13-2) -12.32 (21)
20. (18) Saint Louis (1-1) (13-3) -12.07 (NR)
21. (NR) Alabama (2-0) (12-3) -11.97 (32)
22. (23) Marquette (0-2) (12-4) -11.30 (24)
23. (NR) California (1-1) (13-4) -11.19 (NR)
24. (20) New Mexico (2-0) (14-2) -11.18 (30)
25. (13) Baylor (2-0) (15-0) -10.78 (4)
Dropped Out
(21) Georgetown (1-1) (13-2) -10.41 (11)
(24) Belmont (2-1) (11-6) -9.98 (NR)
(25) Virginia Tech (0-1) (11-4) -9.12 (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 10 - 4
Big 12 - 4
SEC - 3
Big East - 2
ACC - 2
MWC - 2
WCC - 2
MVC - 2
OVC - 1
MAAC - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Pac 12 - 1
Michigan State has opened conference play in the most difficult conference with 3 victories, two against top 10-caliber opponents. This week's victim was Wisconsin, who had been ranked #1 in my rankings just two weeks ago, and the fact that the game took place in Madison made the Spartans' victory mean even more. Coincidentally, that game was the only upset I picked this week that didn't come through.
UNLV moved into the top 10 this week after winning their only game on the road by 32 points. Even though that opponent was only Cal State-Bakersfield, the margin by itself is amazing. This week they face a real test on the road at San Diego State, which entered the ESPN poll this week, but still has some ground to make up in my rankings. A big win over the Rebels would help.
Missouri joined my top 10 this week despite losing their first game of the season to Kansas State. The jump was aided by their 38-point victory over Oklahoma, and the loss did not hurt them that much because they were expected to lose, as I correctly predicted last week. Even though Baylor is currently ranked higher, Missouri and the Kansas schools all look like they'll finish ahead of the Bears once conference play has concluded.
BYU continues its strong showing in my rankings despite not earning a single vote in the national polls. Sure, they may have lost Jimmer to the NBA, but Brandon Davies is back and playing like a star, and three of their losses are to teams that are among my top 25. Do not be surprised if the Cougars end Gonzaga's 11-year streak as WCC champions in their first season in the conference.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
Miami at (3) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 20
(4) Baylor at (18) Kansas State - Wildcats by 10
(5) Ohio State at Illinois - Buckeyes by 9
Iowa at (7) Michigan State - Spartans by 24
(15) Louisville at Providence - Cardinals by 4
Georgia at (19) Florida - Gators by 23
Northern Iowa at (21) Creighton - Bluejays by 14
Chicago State at (22) San Diego State - Aztecs by 34
(25) Harvard at Monmouth - Crimson by 14
Illinois State at Wichita State - Shockers by 16
Wednesday
(1) Syracuse at Villanova - Orange by 7
(2) Kentucky at Auburn - Wildcats by 13
(9) Missouri at Iowa State - Tigers by 2
(10) Kansas at Texas Tech - Jayhawks by 15
Northwestern at (13) Michigan - Wolverines by 14
Saint John's at (24) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 22
Temple at Saint Louis - Billikens by 13
LSU at Alabama - Crimson Tide by 16
Thursday
(17) Virginia at (6) Duke - Blue Devils by 18
Minnesota at (8) Indiana - Hoosiers by 21
Jacksonville State at (14) Murray State - Racers by 28
Tennessee at (20) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 10
(23) Gonzaga at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 11
Wisconsin at Purdue - Boilermakers by 3
Manhattan at Iona - Gaels by 18
Colorado at California - Golden Bears by 16
Friday
(24) Creighton at Illinois State - Bluejays by 1
Bradley at Wichita State - Shockers by 28
Saturday
Providence at (1) Syracuse - Orange by 29
(2) Kentucky at Tennessee - Wildcats by 5
(3) North Carolina at Florida State - Tar Heels by 4
Oklahoma State at (4) Baylor - Bears by 16
(7) Michigan State at Northwestern - Spartans by 6
Texas at (9) Missouri - Tigers by 15
Iowa State at (10) Kansas - Jayhawks by 20
(12) UNLV at (22) San Diego State - Rebels by 2
(13) Michigan at Iowa - Wolverines by 1
Tennessee Tech at (14) Murray State - Racers by 22
DePaul at (15) Louisville - Cardinals by 20
(16) Connecticut at Notre Dame - Irish by 7
(18) Kansas State at Oklahoma - Wildcats by 1
(19) Florida at South Carolina - Gators by 6
Alabama at (20) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 2
(23) Gonzaga at Loyola Marymount - Bulldogs by 5
Pittsburgh at (24) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 14
George Washington at (25) Harvard - Crimson by 18
Santa Clara at BYU - Cougars by 27
Portland at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 29
Saint Louis at Charlotte - 49ers by 2
New Mexico at Wyoming - Cowboys by 4
Utah at California - Golden Bears by 36
Sunday
(8) Indiana at (5) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 14
(6) Duke at Clemson - Blue Devils by 5
(11) Georgetown at Saint Johns - Hoyas by 5
Southern Illinois at (24) Creighton - Bluejays by 24
Wichita State at Indiana State - Shockers by 6
Nebraska at Wisconsin - Badgers by 24
Loyola-Maryland at Iona - Gaels by 21
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 40-7 (.851) 205-29 overall (.876)
Upsets: 6-1 (.857) 18-4 overall (.818)
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