With less than 3 weeks remaining in the regular season, the playoff races are getting tighter. In the West, the Lakers have started to slip a little, and the Jazz and Mavericks are heating up, creating a 3-way race for that final playoff spot. In the East, which looked like it was completely decided weeks ago, the Milwaukee Bucks are doing everything they can to not make the playoffs, and the 76ers aren't completely dead yet, despite how bad they've been all year. Here are my current rankings, with projected final record and playoff seeding included, as well as the change in that projection from last week.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (Projected) Seed (Change)
1. (1) Oklahoma City (2-1) 53-20 (60-22) 2W
2. (2) Miami (3-1) 57-15 (65-17) 1E
3. (3) San Antonio (2-1) 55-17 (62-20) 1W (+1)
4. (4) LA Clippers (2-2) 49-24 (55-27) 4W (-1)
5. (5) Denver (2-2) 50-24 (56-26) 3W
6. (6) Indiana (3-1) 46-27 (52-30) 2E (+1)
7. (7) Memphis (2-2) 48-24 (54-28) 5W
8. (8) Houston (1-2) 39-33 (45-37) 7W (-1)
9. (9) New York (4-0) 45-26 (51-31) 3E (+1)
10. (10) Brooklyn (2-2) 42-30 (48-34) 4E
11. (11) LA Lakers (1-2) 37-36 (42-40) 8W
12. (12) Golden State (2-1) 41-32 (46-36) 6W
13. (14) Boston (2-2) 38-34 (43-39) 7E
14. (15) Atlanta (2-2) 40-33 (45-37) 6E
15. (18) Chicago (3-0) 39-31 (46-36) 5E (+2)
16. (16) Utah (3-1) 37-36 (41-41) 9W
17. (13) Dallas (2-1) 35-37 (40-42) 10W
18. (17) Portland (0-3) 33-39 (37-45) 11W (-1)
19. (20) Minnesota (2-2) 26-45 (31-51) 12W
20. (19) Milwaukee (1-2) 35-36 (40-42) 8E
21. (22) Washington (1-3) 26-46 (30-52) 11E (-1)
22. (23) Sacramento (2-2) 27-46 (30-52) 13W (+1)
23. (21) Toronto (1-2) 27-45 (31-51) 10E (-1)
24. (26) Philadelphia (3-1) 29-43 (33-49) 9E (+1)
25. (24) New Orleans (1-2) 25-48 (28-54) 14W
26. (25) Cleveland (0-2) 22-49 (26-56) 13E (-2)
27. (28) Phoenix (0-3) 23-50 (25-57) 15W (-1)
28. (27) Detroit (1-2) 24-49 (27-55) 12E (-1)
29. (29) Orlando (1-2) 19-54 (21-61) 14E
30. (30) Charlotte (1-3) 17-55 (19-63) 15E
The hottest team in the league right now is New York, and the hottest player not named LeBron is JR Smith. He has scored 30 points off the bench in 3 straight games, becoming the first reserve to achieve that since Ricky Pierce in 1990, when Smith was only 5 years old. The Knicks' win streak has reached 7 games, and they have taken over the #2 seed in the East once again, and now they look like they're here to stay.
Philadelphia kept their slim playoff hopes alive this week with 3 wins in the same week for the first time since November, and one of the teams they beat was Milwaukee, the team they need to catch to slip into the playoffs. If they make the playoffs, they will have the worst record of a qualifying team in decades, since they have already lost 43 times, but the bottom of the East is so weak that they just might pull it off.
Minnesota also had a great week, nearly upsetting the Lakers on Wednesday before breaking through last night against the top-ranked Oklahoma City Thunder, taking down the defending Western Conference champs for their second win of the week. While they haven't been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet, it's almost a certainty that it will happen this week, so once again they'll have to wait for next year.
No list of the league's hottest teams would be complete without including the Sacramento Kings, who have been a fixture on this list for the last month. They keep on winning games that they aren't expected to, such as their road win at Golden State this week. Tonight they are hosting the Los Angeles Lakers, and there are several teams that would be grateful if they continued their hot streak.
Saturday, March 30, 2013
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Updated NCAA Tournament Odds - 26 Mar
2 full rounds are down, and 68 teams have been whittled down to 16, but which of those teams has a realistic chance of winning it all? I've added in all of the past week's results, including those from the NIT, and have recalculated each team's odds of advancing deeper into the tournament. I'll start out with each team's current ranking according to my formula, then go into the breakdown.
TW. (LW) Team
1. (1) Louisville
2. (3) Florida
3. (2) Indiana
4. (5) Duke
6. (6) Kansas
7. (7) Ohio State
8. (12) Michigan
9. (13) Michigan State
10. (11) Syracuse
12. (17) Miami
15. (21) Arizona
19. (29) Wichita State
34. (54) Oregon
43. (38) Marquette
45. (49) LaSalle
84. (122) Florida Gulf Coast
Best Losing Teams
5. (4) Gonzaga
11. (14) VCU
13. (9) Creighton
14. (8) Wisconsin
16. (10) Pittsburgh
17. (15) Georgetown
18. (26) Minnesota
Odds of Making the Final Four
Florida - 57.1%
Louisville - 47.6%
Indiana - 42.8%
Ohio State - 35.7%
Duke - 27.2%
Miami - 25.6%
Wichita State - 25.0%
Arizona - 24.5%
Kansas - 22.4%
Syracuse - 21.7%
Michigan - 19.1%
Michigan State - 18.0%
LaSalle - 14.7%
Florida's path to the Final Four got much easier with Georgetown's demise in the first round, giving them the edge as the most likely team to represent its region. Louisville, Indiana, and Ohio State round out the most likely Final Four.
Odds of Winning the Championship
Florida - 21.3%
Louisville - 18.8%
Indiana - 13.0%
Duke - 8.1%
Ohio State - 7.0%
Kansas - 5.7%
Michigan - 4.4%
Miami - 4.3%
Michigan State - 4.2%
Syracuse - 4.0%
Arizona - 3.5%
Wichita State - 3.0%
Florida has also jumped to the top of this list, becoming the most likely team to win the title, although that doesn't make them the best team, just the one with the best chance to get there and win it. The Big 10 has a 28.6% chance of having the champion, while the Big East has 23.6% odds, with 7 teams representing the nation's two best conferences.
Random Championship Game Odds
All #1's - 11.2%
All Red - 11.0%
All Big 10 - 8.1% (All Big 10 Final Four - 0.5%)
All Birds - 5.1%
All Big East - 3.7%
All #3's - 3.7%
All State Nicknames - 3.6%
All #2's - 3.2%
All M's - 2.1%
All Colored Mascots - 1.9%
All ACC - 1.6%
All Kansas - 1.0%
All Mammals - 0.9%
All Michigan - 0.9%
All Mid-Majors - 0.04%
All Double Digit Seeds - 0.02%
Best Teams Left Out
Of the 8 teams that I felt should not have been left out of the field, 7 won their first NIT games, with only Kentucky losing. 5 of the 8 are still alive and among the final 8 teams in the NIT, and the two that lost between the first round and now lost to one of the 5 still alive.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Of the 8 teams I felt should have been left out, only LaSalle is still alive, and they were only one spot below my original tournament cutoff. Of the other 7, 3 won a game before falling in the round of 32, and 4 didn't even get out of the gates.
Underseeded Teams
On my underseeded teams list, Ole Miss and Minnesota both pulled off opening round upsets, while the others weren't able to overcome their poor seeding to keep themselves alive.
Overseeded Teams
Only 2 of my overseeded teams are still alive, and Marquette is lucky to be there, nearly falling in each of its first two games.
Number of First-Round Upsets
I predicted 10.4, and there were 10 that actually happened, so this one was right on for the second year in a row.
Most Likely Upsets
7 of the 10 upsets that happened were on my list of the 14 most likely upsets, just like last year, with 3 of the less likely ones coming through.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to pull off an Upset
I gave Florida Gulf Coast 20.3% odds of upsetting Georgetown, and while that was the lowest of any #15 seed, they pulled it off, fulfilling the one huge upset guess.
Number of Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
I predicted 3.5, and there are exactly 3 still alive, so this one was also right on.
Most Likely Cinderellas
Oregon and LaSalle were both on my top 10 Cinderellas list, but Florida Gulf Coast was not even on the radar, so I didn't catch them all this time.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
10 of my 12 most likely teams are still in the running, with Gonzaga and Georgetown not living up to expectations.
TW. (LW) Team
1. (1) Louisville
2. (3) Florida
3. (2) Indiana
4. (5) Duke
6. (6) Kansas
7. (7) Ohio State
8. (12) Michigan
9. (13) Michigan State
10. (11) Syracuse
12. (17) Miami
15. (21) Arizona
19. (29) Wichita State
34. (54) Oregon
43. (38) Marquette
45. (49) LaSalle
84. (122) Florida Gulf Coast
Best Losing Teams
5. (4) Gonzaga
11. (14) VCU
13. (9) Creighton
14. (8) Wisconsin
16. (10) Pittsburgh
17. (15) Georgetown
18. (26) Minnesota
Odds of Making the Final Four
Florida - 57.1%
Louisville - 47.6%
Indiana - 42.8%
Ohio State - 35.7%
Duke - 27.2%
Miami - 25.6%
Wichita State - 25.0%
Arizona - 24.5%
Kansas - 22.4%
Syracuse - 21.7%
Michigan - 19.1%
Michigan State - 18.0%
LaSalle - 14.7%
Florida's path to the Final Four got much easier with Georgetown's demise in the first round, giving them the edge as the most likely team to represent its region. Louisville, Indiana, and Ohio State round out the most likely Final Four.
Odds of Winning the Championship
Florida - 21.3%
Louisville - 18.8%
Indiana - 13.0%
Duke - 8.1%
Ohio State - 7.0%
Kansas - 5.7%
Michigan - 4.4%
Miami - 4.3%
Michigan State - 4.2%
Syracuse - 4.0%
Arizona - 3.5%
Wichita State - 3.0%
Florida has also jumped to the top of this list, becoming the most likely team to win the title, although that doesn't make them the best team, just the one with the best chance to get there and win it. The Big 10 has a 28.6% chance of having the champion, while the Big East has 23.6% odds, with 7 teams representing the nation's two best conferences.
Random Championship Game Odds
All #1's - 11.2%
All Red - 11.0%
All Big 10 - 8.1% (All Big 10 Final Four - 0.5%)
All Birds - 5.1%
All Big East - 3.7%
All #3's - 3.7%
All State Nicknames - 3.6%
All #2's - 3.2%
All M's - 2.1%
All Colored Mascots - 1.9%
All ACC - 1.6%
All Kansas - 1.0%
All Mammals - 0.9%
All Michigan - 0.9%
All Mid-Majors - 0.04%
All Double Digit Seeds - 0.02%
Best Teams Left Out
Of the 8 teams that I felt should not have been left out of the field, 7 won their first NIT games, with only Kentucky losing. 5 of the 8 are still alive and among the final 8 teams in the NIT, and the two that lost between the first round and now lost to one of the 5 still alive.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Of the 8 teams I felt should have been left out, only LaSalle is still alive, and they were only one spot below my original tournament cutoff. Of the other 7, 3 won a game before falling in the round of 32, and 4 didn't even get out of the gates.
Underseeded Teams
On my underseeded teams list, Ole Miss and Minnesota both pulled off opening round upsets, while the others weren't able to overcome their poor seeding to keep themselves alive.
Overseeded Teams
Only 2 of my overseeded teams are still alive, and Marquette is lucky to be there, nearly falling in each of its first two games.
Number of First-Round Upsets
I predicted 10.4, and there were 10 that actually happened, so this one was right on for the second year in a row.
Most Likely Upsets
7 of the 10 upsets that happened were on my list of the 14 most likely upsets, just like last year, with 3 of the less likely ones coming through.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to pull off an Upset
I gave Florida Gulf Coast 20.3% odds of upsetting Georgetown, and while that was the lowest of any #15 seed, they pulled it off, fulfilling the one huge upset guess.
Number of Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
I predicted 3.5, and there are exactly 3 still alive, so this one was also right on.
Most Likely Cinderellas
Oregon and LaSalle were both on my top 10 Cinderellas list, but Florida Gulf Coast was not even on the radar, so I didn't catch them all this time.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
10 of my 12 most likely teams are still in the running, with Gonzaga and Georgetown not living up to expectations.
Saturday, March 23, 2013
NBA Rankings - 23 Mar
Teams have been gobbling up playoff berths all week, leaving only 8 spots up for grabs, but since the 4 in the East are pretty much already determined and Memphis won't miss out, there are really only 6 teams going for the final 3 spots in the West. Two teams are on winning streaks of at least 14 games, with Miami's streak becoming the first ever to get within 10 of the Lakers' amazing 33-game streak 31 years ago. Here are my current rankings, with teams grouped by similar level of performance and projected final record in parentheses, as well as projected seeding and the change in projected record from last week.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (Projected) Seed (Change)
1. (1) Oklahoma City (3-2) 51-19 (60-22) 2W (-2)
2. (3) Miami (5-0) 54-14 (65-17) 1E (+1)
3. (2) San Antonio (3-0) 53-16 (61-21) 1W
4. (4) LA Clippers (2-1) 47-22 (56-26) 4W
5. (5) Denver (4-0) 48-22 (56-26) 3W (+2)
6. (8) Indiana (3-2) 43-26 (51-31) 2E (-1)
7. (6) Memphis (2-3) 46-22 (54-28) 5W (-2)
8. (7) Houston (3-1) 38-31 (46-36) 6W
9. (10) New York (3-1) 41-26 (50-32) 3E (+2)
10. (12) Brooklyn (2-1) 40-28 (48-34) 4E (+1)
11. (9) LA Lakers (2-2) 36-34 (42-40) 8W (-1)
12. (15) Golden State (2-2) 39-31 (46-36) 7W (+1)
13. (11) Dallas (3-2) 33-36 (40-42) 10W (+1)
14. (13) Boston (1-3) 36-32 (43-39) 7E (-2)
15. (14) Atlanta (3-2) 38-31 (45-37) 5E
16. (16) Utah (1-3) 34-35 (41-41) 9W
17. (18) Portland (3-2) 33-36 (38-44) 11W
18. (17) Chicago (1-2) 36-31 (44-38) 6E
19. (20) Milwaukee (2-3) 34-34 (40-42) 8E (-1)
20. (24) Minnesota (2-3) 24-43 (31-51) 12W (+1)
21. (19) Toronto (1-3) 26-43 (32-50) 9E (-2)
22. (22) Washington (4-1) 25-43 (31-51) 11E (+2)
23. (25) Sacramento (2-1) 25-44 (29-53) 13W (+1)
24. (21) New Orleans (2-3) 24-46 (28-54) 14W (-1)
25. (23) Cleveland (0-5) 22-47 (28-54) 13E (-1)
26. (26) Philadelphia (2-2) 26-42 (32-50) 10E (+2)
27. (27) Detroit (0-3) 23-47 (28-54) 12E (-1)
28. (28) Phoenix (1-4) 23-47 (26-56) 15W (-1)
29. (29) Orlando (0-5) 18-52 (21-61) 14E
30. (30) Charlotte (2-2) 16-52 (19-63) 15E (+1)
I didn't expect much out of Golden State this week as they headed out for their final extended road trip of the season, so the fact that they won 2 of 3 and won them both convincingly makes me think that the Warriors are pretty solidly in the playoffs. 9 of their final 12 games are at home, and only 4 of those games are against teams that will probably be in the playoffs, 2 coming against the Lakers, so the Warriors should finish with a pretty good record and could possibly get to the #6 spot and avoid the Thunder or Spurs in the first round.
Not only did Brooklyn clinch a playoff berth with their win in Dallas last night, they also dealt a serious blow to the Mavericks' hopes, especially considering that the Jazz and Lakers also lost last night, and it would have allowed the Mavs to make up a full game on both. The Nets pulled away from Atlanta this week and are looking like a pretty solid #4 seed now, which they'll need to get through the first round, since they won't be going any farther.
New York won 3 straight this week and also clinched a playoff berth, and it looks like they are disputing Indiana's claim to be the second-best team in the East. New York obviously has more star power than Indiana, but having home court when the two face off in round 2 would certainly help their chances of reaching an Eastern Conference Final showdown with the smoking Heat.
Portland's week didn't start off too well, losing at Milwaukee and Philadelphia, two teams that wouldn't even be in the playoff discussion in the West, but then they took down Atlanta and Chicago, two teams that will be in, which kept the Blazers' season alive. I still have them being left out, mostly because of the strength of their remaining schedule, which contains only teams that will make the playoffs or are still alive (Dallas and Utah). Not a single cupcake the rest of the way gives them no chance of passing 3 teams in the next month.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (Projected) Seed (Change)
1. (1) Oklahoma City (3-2) 51-19 (60-22) 2W (-2)
2. (3) Miami (5-0) 54-14 (65-17) 1E (+1)
3. (2) San Antonio (3-0) 53-16 (61-21) 1W
4. (4) LA Clippers (2-1) 47-22 (56-26) 4W
5. (5) Denver (4-0) 48-22 (56-26) 3W (+2)
6. (8) Indiana (3-2) 43-26 (51-31) 2E (-1)
7. (6) Memphis (2-3) 46-22 (54-28) 5W (-2)
8. (7) Houston (3-1) 38-31 (46-36) 6W
9. (10) New York (3-1) 41-26 (50-32) 3E (+2)
10. (12) Brooklyn (2-1) 40-28 (48-34) 4E (+1)
11. (9) LA Lakers (2-2) 36-34 (42-40) 8W (-1)
12. (15) Golden State (2-2) 39-31 (46-36) 7W (+1)
13. (11) Dallas (3-2) 33-36 (40-42) 10W (+1)
14. (13) Boston (1-3) 36-32 (43-39) 7E (-2)
15. (14) Atlanta (3-2) 38-31 (45-37) 5E
16. (16) Utah (1-3) 34-35 (41-41) 9W
17. (18) Portland (3-2) 33-36 (38-44) 11W
18. (17) Chicago (1-2) 36-31 (44-38) 6E
19. (20) Milwaukee (2-3) 34-34 (40-42) 8E (-1)
20. (24) Minnesota (2-3) 24-43 (31-51) 12W (+1)
21. (19) Toronto (1-3) 26-43 (32-50) 9E (-2)
22. (22) Washington (4-1) 25-43 (31-51) 11E (+2)
23. (25) Sacramento (2-1) 25-44 (29-53) 13W (+1)
24. (21) New Orleans (2-3) 24-46 (28-54) 14W (-1)
25. (23) Cleveland (0-5) 22-47 (28-54) 13E (-1)
26. (26) Philadelphia (2-2) 26-42 (32-50) 10E (+2)
27. (27) Detroit (0-3) 23-47 (28-54) 12E (-1)
28. (28) Phoenix (1-4) 23-47 (26-56) 15W (-1)
29. (29) Orlando (0-5) 18-52 (21-61) 14E
30. (30) Charlotte (2-2) 16-52 (19-63) 15E (+1)
I didn't expect much out of Golden State this week as they headed out for their final extended road trip of the season, so the fact that they won 2 of 3 and won them both convincingly makes me think that the Warriors are pretty solidly in the playoffs. 9 of their final 12 games are at home, and only 4 of those games are against teams that will probably be in the playoffs, 2 coming against the Lakers, so the Warriors should finish with a pretty good record and could possibly get to the #6 spot and avoid the Thunder or Spurs in the first round.
Not only did Brooklyn clinch a playoff berth with their win in Dallas last night, they also dealt a serious blow to the Mavericks' hopes, especially considering that the Jazz and Lakers also lost last night, and it would have allowed the Mavs to make up a full game on both. The Nets pulled away from Atlanta this week and are looking like a pretty solid #4 seed now, which they'll need to get through the first round, since they won't be going any farther.
New York won 3 straight this week and also clinched a playoff berth, and it looks like they are disputing Indiana's claim to be the second-best team in the East. New York obviously has more star power than Indiana, but having home court when the two face off in round 2 would certainly help their chances of reaching an Eastern Conference Final showdown with the smoking Heat.
Portland's week didn't start off too well, losing at Milwaukee and Philadelphia, two teams that wouldn't even be in the playoff discussion in the West, but then they took down Atlanta and Chicago, two teams that will be in, which kept the Blazers' season alive. I still have them being left out, mostly because of the strength of their remaining schedule, which contains only teams that will make the playoffs or are still alive (Dallas and Utah). Not a single cupcake the rest of the way gives them no chance of passing 3 teams in the next month.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
College Basketball Bracket Odds and Predictions
The wait is over. The greatest month of basketball begins tonight, as 68 teams are whittled down to one, and the field has never been more wide-open. I have broken down the odds of each team advancing to any point in the tournament, and am also predicting the total number of upsets and Cinderellas to expect and which teams are over- and under-rated. Let the fun begin.
Best Teams Left Out of the Field
Teams are listed according to final ranking by my formula.
37. Stony Brook
39. Iowa
40. Virginia
42. Baylor
43. Kentucky
45. Denver
46. Southern Miss
47. Maryland
None of these teams is a major snub, although I really would have liked to see Stony Brook play on, after the way they dominated the American East Conference through the regular season before falling in the conference tournament. Of the five teams I felt were left out of the field last year, 3 were included in this season's field: Miami, Middle Tennessee, and Arizona. You can expect some of these teams to be strong again next year.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Teams listed by my final ranking, with tournament seed in parentheses.
49. LaSalle (13)
52. Oklahoma (10)
53. UCLA (6)
55. Colorado (10)
58. Butler (6)
63. Temple (9)
64. Villanova (9)
72. California (12)
The bottom 3 are the ones I definitely feel should not be in the tourney, but if only the best teams got in, none of these teams would still be playing games that matter. Among the 5 teams I felt shouldn't have made it last year, 3 lost in the first round, with Xavier making the Sweet 16 due to two very lucky matchups.
Most Underseeded Teams
These teams were not seeded as high as I feel they should have been according to their body of work over the course of the season, and that makes each of them a candidate to pull off some early upsets.
1. Middle Tennessee
2. Ole Miss
3. Saint Mary's
4. Pittsburgh
5. Albany
6. Minnesota
7. Missouri
8. Creighton
9. Boise State
10. Belmont
11. Wisconsin
Among last season's underseeded teams, Florida had the most success, going two rounds farther than expected as they advanced to the Elite Eight as a #7 seed. Belmont makes its third straight appearance on this list, but not at the #1 spot that they are used to. Sadly, Middle Tennessee and Saint Mary's have to play each other in a play-in game, so one of them will not be able to show what they can do, but either one should have a good chance at beating Memphis in the round of 64. Ole Miss and Wisconsin are also playing in the first round, so one of them will also be going home without going as far as they should.
Most Overseeded Teams
These are the teams that were given too much credit for their season, and may fall prey to an early-round upset.
1. Marquette
2. Butler
3. Kansas State
4. UCLA
5. UNLV
6. Temple
7. Villanova
8. Miami
9. Memphis
10. Illinois
Last season, 7 of the 9 teams I put on this list lost in the first round, and Xavier would have but they were facing another team on this list in round 1. Kansas State, UCLA, and Memphis are all in the most trouble of the teams on this list, since they are all facing teams on my underseeded list.
Number of First-Round Upsets
10.4
Last season I predicted 10.9 first-round upsets, and there were a total of 10, so my prediction was right on. Anywhere from 9 to 11 is quite likely this time around, so make sure not to pick too many or too few.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
Which upsets should you picks to fill in those 10.4 spots? Here are the ones that are most likely to happen.
(11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA - 57.4%
(11) Middle Tennessee/Saint Mary's over (6) Memphis - 54.7%
(9) Missouri over (8) Colorado State - 53.7%
(11) Bucknell over (6) Butler - 50.3%
(10) Colorado over (7) Illinois - 48.5%
(10) Iowa State over (7) Notre Dame - 48.1%
(11) Belmont over (6) Arizona - 46.9%
(13) Boise State/LaSalle over (4) Kansas State - 46.3%
(14) Davidson over (3) Marquette - 44.7%
(10) Oklahoma over (7) San Diego State - 43.7%
(12) Ole Miss over (5) Wisconsin - 41.5%
(9) Temple over (8) North Carolina State - 41.3%
(12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State - 40.8%
(9) Wichita State over (8) Pittsburgh - 40.7%
(9) Villanova over (8) North Carolina - 40.4%
These 15 games are the best places to look for your upsets. Last season, 7 of the 10 upsets that happened were on my list of 13 possible upsets, so you should definitely pull most of your upsets from here.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull Off an Upset
(15) Albany over (2) Duke - 27.2%
(15) Iona over (2) Ohio State - 23.0%
(15) Pacific over (2) Miami - 20.7%
(15) Florida Gulf Coast over (2) Georgetown - 20.3%
This season's batch of #16 seeds is pretty weak, so it's up to the #15 seeds to pull off the big upset. Last season, I listed Lehigh over Duke as the most likely huge upset, and I'm sure you remember what happened to the Blue Devils. There's a pretty good chance that you will see one of these upsets happen this year, but I wouldn't go so far as to guarantee it.
Most Likely Cinderellas
These are the lower-seeded teams most likely to reach the Sweet 16.
(11) Middle Tennessee/Saint Mary's - 28.1% (16.1%/12.0%)
(11) Belmont - 24.4%
(11) Bucknell - 23.6%
(12) Ole Miss - 22.6%
(14) Davidson - 22.4%
(10) Colorado - 21.2%
(10) Iowa State - 20.3%
(10) Oklahoma - 18.7%
(12) Oregon - 18.6%
(13) Boise State/LaSalle - 17.8% (9.3%/8.5%)
(9) Missouri - 16.5%
(11) Minnesota - 16.2%
(12) Akron - 15.2%
Last season, all 3 actual Cinderellas were listed among my top 9, so you probably shouldn't look elsewhere for your deep tourney runs by low seeds.
Number of Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
3.5
Last season I predicted 3.8, and there ended up being 3, so you'd be pretty safe to pick 3 of them to play into the second week again this year.
Number of #1 Seeds in the Final Four
1.3
Last season the number was 1.1, and exactly one top seed made it to the Final Four, so picking one or two is probably the best way to go. Seeing 3 or 4 is very unlikely.
Odds That a #1 Seed Wins the Tournament
44.9%
Last season I only had it at 37.2%, and Kentucky ended up winning, so this year there's a pretty good chance that one of those 4 will be the final team standing.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
(1) Indiana - 77.5%
(3) Florida - 74.9%
(1) Louisville - 70.9%
(1) Gonzaga - 64.4%
(1) Kansas - 64.2%
(4) Syracuse - 54.7%
(2) Miami - 48.9%
(2) Ohio State - 48.5%
(2) Georgetown - 47.4%
(2) Duke - 45.2%
(4) Michigan - 42.6%
(3) Michigan State - 38.6%
(4) Saint Louis - 37.8%
(5) Wisconsin - 37.0%
(3) New Mexico - 36.8%
(5) VCU - 34.8%
(5) Oklahoma State - 32.5%
(7) Creighton - 31.1%
(3) Marquette - 30.7%
Last season, I picked the 10 most likely Sweet 16 teams, and 7 of them made it at least that far. Wisconsin is the seed most likely to make the Sweet 16 that shouldn't according to its seed, and Florida and Syracuse are the two teams that aren't #1 or #2 who are most likely to get through this week.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
(1) Indiana - 42.9%
(1) Louisville - 35.4%
(3) Florida - 34.9%
(1) Gonzaga - 28.8%
(1) Kansas - 20.7%
(2) Ohio State - 15.5%
(2) Duke - 15.4%
(4) Syracuse - 14.0%
(2) Miami - 12.2%
Many analysts have said that Indiana has the toughest path to the Final Four of any of the top seeds, but in fact the opposite is true. Their regions features overrated teams at #2, #3, #5, #6, #7, and #9, with only Syracuse posing a real threat to the Hoosiers making a deep run. Last season, 3 of the 5 teams I listed as most likely to make the Final Four were there, with Louisville the only surprise.
Most Likely Champions
(1) Indiana - 16.0%
(1) Louisville - 13.7%
(3) Florida - 12.9%
(1) Gonzaga - 9.3%
(1) Kansas - 5.9%
(2) Duke - 4.7%
(2) Ohio State - 3.8%
(4) Syracuse - 3.0%
(2) Miami - 2.2%
(4) Michigan - 2.1%
(5) Wisconsin - 2.0%
While I don't think Indiana is the best team, they are the most likely to win because of their easy path to the Final Four. Last season, I had Kentucky as the most likely team to win the championship, just ahead of Ohio State.
Overall Bracket
This is how the bracket will turn out if the better team wins every game, with upset picks in italics.
First Round
(1) Louisville
(9) Missouri
(5) Oklahoma State
(4) Saint Louis
(11) Middle Tennessee/Saint Mary's
(3) Michigan State
(7) Creighton
(2) Duke
(1) Gonzaga
(8) Pittsburgh
(5) Wisconsin
(4) Kansas State
(6) Arizona
(3) New Mexico
(7) Notre Dame
(2) Ohio State
(1) Kansas
(8) North Carolina
(5) VCU
(4) Michigan
(11) Minnesota
(3) Florida
(7) San Diego State
(2) Georgetown
(1) Indiana
(8) North Carolina State
(5) UNLV
(4) Syracuse
(11) Bucknell
(3) Marquette
(7) Illinois
(2) Miami
Sweet 16
(1) Louisville
(5) Wisconsin
(3) New Mexico
(2) Ohio State
(1) Gonzaga
(4) Saint Louis
(3) Michigan State
(2) Duke
(1) Kansas
(4) Michigan
(3) Florida
(2) Georgetown
(1) Indiana
(4) Syracuse
(3) Marquette
(2) Miami
Elite Eight
(1) Louisville
(2) Ohio State
(1) Gonzaga
(2) Duke
(1) Kansas
(3) Florida
(1) Indiana
(2) Miami
Final Four
(1) Louisville
(1) Gonzaga
(3) Florida
(1) Indiana
Championship
(1) Louisville
(1) Indiana
Champion
(1) Louisville
These obviously aren't my official picks, because I like to try to include plenty of upsets in the brackets I submit to contests, but last season, picking according to my formula before the tourney began, I was able to pick 75% of the first round correct, and at least half of the teams that would advance to each round, although Ohio State was my pick to win last season, which didn't quite happen. Feel free to use these odds as a guideline to help you find the best upsets and favorites to ride through the tourney, and have fun watching the greatest month in sports.
Best Teams Left Out of the Field
Teams are listed according to final ranking by my formula.
37. Stony Brook
39. Iowa
40. Virginia
42. Baylor
43. Kentucky
45. Denver
46. Southern Miss
47. Maryland
None of these teams is a major snub, although I really would have liked to see Stony Brook play on, after the way they dominated the American East Conference through the regular season before falling in the conference tournament. Of the five teams I felt were left out of the field last year, 3 were included in this season's field: Miami, Middle Tennessee, and Arizona. You can expect some of these teams to be strong again next year.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Teams listed by my final ranking, with tournament seed in parentheses.
49. LaSalle (13)
52. Oklahoma (10)
53. UCLA (6)
55. Colorado (10)
58. Butler (6)
63. Temple (9)
64. Villanova (9)
72. California (12)
The bottom 3 are the ones I definitely feel should not be in the tourney, but if only the best teams got in, none of these teams would still be playing games that matter. Among the 5 teams I felt shouldn't have made it last year, 3 lost in the first round, with Xavier making the Sweet 16 due to two very lucky matchups.
Most Underseeded Teams
These teams were not seeded as high as I feel they should have been according to their body of work over the course of the season, and that makes each of them a candidate to pull off some early upsets.
1. Middle Tennessee
2. Ole Miss
3. Saint Mary's
4. Pittsburgh
5. Albany
6. Minnesota
7. Missouri
8. Creighton
9. Boise State
10. Belmont
11. Wisconsin
Among last season's underseeded teams, Florida had the most success, going two rounds farther than expected as they advanced to the Elite Eight as a #7 seed. Belmont makes its third straight appearance on this list, but not at the #1 spot that they are used to. Sadly, Middle Tennessee and Saint Mary's have to play each other in a play-in game, so one of them will not be able to show what they can do, but either one should have a good chance at beating Memphis in the round of 64. Ole Miss and Wisconsin are also playing in the first round, so one of them will also be going home without going as far as they should.
Most Overseeded Teams
These are the teams that were given too much credit for their season, and may fall prey to an early-round upset.
1. Marquette
2. Butler
3. Kansas State
4. UCLA
5. UNLV
6. Temple
7. Villanova
8. Miami
9. Memphis
10. Illinois
Last season, 7 of the 9 teams I put on this list lost in the first round, and Xavier would have but they were facing another team on this list in round 1. Kansas State, UCLA, and Memphis are all in the most trouble of the teams on this list, since they are all facing teams on my underseeded list.
Number of First-Round Upsets
10.4
Last season I predicted 10.9 first-round upsets, and there were a total of 10, so my prediction was right on. Anywhere from 9 to 11 is quite likely this time around, so make sure not to pick too many or too few.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
Which upsets should you picks to fill in those 10.4 spots? Here are the ones that are most likely to happen.
(11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA - 57.4%
(11) Middle Tennessee/Saint Mary's over (6) Memphis - 54.7%
(9) Missouri over (8) Colorado State - 53.7%
(11) Bucknell over (6) Butler - 50.3%
(10) Colorado over (7) Illinois - 48.5%
(10) Iowa State over (7) Notre Dame - 48.1%
(11) Belmont over (6) Arizona - 46.9%
(13) Boise State/LaSalle over (4) Kansas State - 46.3%
(14) Davidson over (3) Marquette - 44.7%
(10) Oklahoma over (7) San Diego State - 43.7%
(12) Ole Miss over (5) Wisconsin - 41.5%
(9) Temple over (8) North Carolina State - 41.3%
(12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State - 40.8%
(9) Wichita State over (8) Pittsburgh - 40.7%
(9) Villanova over (8) North Carolina - 40.4%
These 15 games are the best places to look for your upsets. Last season, 7 of the 10 upsets that happened were on my list of 13 possible upsets, so you should definitely pull most of your upsets from here.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull Off an Upset
(15) Albany over (2) Duke - 27.2%
(15) Iona over (2) Ohio State - 23.0%
(15) Pacific over (2) Miami - 20.7%
(15) Florida Gulf Coast over (2) Georgetown - 20.3%
This season's batch of #16 seeds is pretty weak, so it's up to the #15 seeds to pull off the big upset. Last season, I listed Lehigh over Duke as the most likely huge upset, and I'm sure you remember what happened to the Blue Devils. There's a pretty good chance that you will see one of these upsets happen this year, but I wouldn't go so far as to guarantee it.
Most Likely Cinderellas
These are the lower-seeded teams most likely to reach the Sweet 16.
(11) Middle Tennessee/Saint Mary's - 28.1% (16.1%/12.0%)
(11) Belmont - 24.4%
(11) Bucknell - 23.6%
(12) Ole Miss - 22.6%
(14) Davidson - 22.4%
(10) Colorado - 21.2%
(10) Iowa State - 20.3%
(10) Oklahoma - 18.7%
(12) Oregon - 18.6%
(13) Boise State/LaSalle - 17.8% (9.3%/8.5%)
(9) Missouri - 16.5%
(11) Minnesota - 16.2%
(12) Akron - 15.2%
Last season, all 3 actual Cinderellas were listed among my top 9, so you probably shouldn't look elsewhere for your deep tourney runs by low seeds.
Number of Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
3.5
Last season I predicted 3.8, and there ended up being 3, so you'd be pretty safe to pick 3 of them to play into the second week again this year.
Number of #1 Seeds in the Final Four
1.3
Last season the number was 1.1, and exactly one top seed made it to the Final Four, so picking one or two is probably the best way to go. Seeing 3 or 4 is very unlikely.
Odds That a #1 Seed Wins the Tournament
44.9%
Last season I only had it at 37.2%, and Kentucky ended up winning, so this year there's a pretty good chance that one of those 4 will be the final team standing.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
(1) Indiana - 77.5%
(3) Florida - 74.9%
(1) Louisville - 70.9%
(1) Gonzaga - 64.4%
(1) Kansas - 64.2%
(4) Syracuse - 54.7%
(2) Miami - 48.9%
(2) Ohio State - 48.5%
(2) Georgetown - 47.4%
(2) Duke - 45.2%
(4) Michigan - 42.6%
(3) Michigan State - 38.6%
(4) Saint Louis - 37.8%
(5) Wisconsin - 37.0%
(3) New Mexico - 36.8%
(5) VCU - 34.8%
(5) Oklahoma State - 32.5%
(7) Creighton - 31.1%
(3) Marquette - 30.7%
Last season, I picked the 10 most likely Sweet 16 teams, and 7 of them made it at least that far. Wisconsin is the seed most likely to make the Sweet 16 that shouldn't according to its seed, and Florida and Syracuse are the two teams that aren't #1 or #2 who are most likely to get through this week.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
(1) Indiana - 42.9%
(1) Louisville - 35.4%
(3) Florida - 34.9%
(1) Gonzaga - 28.8%
(1) Kansas - 20.7%
(2) Ohio State - 15.5%
(2) Duke - 15.4%
(4) Syracuse - 14.0%
(2) Miami - 12.2%
Many analysts have said that Indiana has the toughest path to the Final Four of any of the top seeds, but in fact the opposite is true. Their regions features overrated teams at #2, #3, #5, #6, #7, and #9, with only Syracuse posing a real threat to the Hoosiers making a deep run. Last season, 3 of the 5 teams I listed as most likely to make the Final Four were there, with Louisville the only surprise.
Most Likely Champions
(1) Indiana - 16.0%
(1) Louisville - 13.7%
(3) Florida - 12.9%
(1) Gonzaga - 9.3%
(1) Kansas - 5.9%
(2) Duke - 4.7%
(2) Ohio State - 3.8%
(4) Syracuse - 3.0%
(2) Miami - 2.2%
(4) Michigan - 2.1%
(5) Wisconsin - 2.0%
While I don't think Indiana is the best team, they are the most likely to win because of their easy path to the Final Four. Last season, I had Kentucky as the most likely team to win the championship, just ahead of Ohio State.
Overall Bracket
This is how the bracket will turn out if the better team wins every game, with upset picks in italics.
First Round
(1) Louisville
(9) Missouri
(5) Oklahoma State
(4) Saint Louis
(11) Middle Tennessee/Saint Mary's
(3) Michigan State
(7) Creighton
(2) Duke
(1) Gonzaga
(8) Pittsburgh
(5) Wisconsin
(4) Kansas State
(6) Arizona
(3) New Mexico
(7) Notre Dame
(2) Ohio State
(1) Kansas
(8) North Carolina
(5) VCU
(4) Michigan
(11) Minnesota
(3) Florida
(7) San Diego State
(2) Georgetown
(1) Indiana
(8) North Carolina State
(5) UNLV
(4) Syracuse
(11) Bucknell
(3) Marquette
(7) Illinois
(2) Miami
Sweet 16
(1) Louisville
(5) Wisconsin
(3) New Mexico
(2) Ohio State
(1) Gonzaga
(4) Saint Louis
(3) Michigan State
(2) Duke
(1) Kansas
(4) Michigan
(3) Florida
(2) Georgetown
(1) Indiana
(4) Syracuse
(3) Marquette
(2) Miami
Elite Eight
(1) Louisville
(2) Ohio State
(1) Gonzaga
(2) Duke
(1) Kansas
(3) Florida
(1) Indiana
(2) Miami
Final Four
(1) Louisville
(1) Gonzaga
(3) Florida
(1) Indiana
Championship
(1) Louisville
(1) Indiana
Champion
(1) Louisville
These obviously aren't my official picks, because I like to try to include plenty of upsets in the brackets I submit to contests, but last season, picking according to my formula before the tourney began, I was able to pick 75% of the first round correct, and at least half of the teams that would advance to each round, although Ohio State was my pick to win last season, which didn't quite happen. Feel free to use these odds as a guideline to help you find the best upsets and favorites to ride through the tourney, and have fun watching the greatest month in sports.
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Basketball Predictions - 17 Mar
Upset picks are in italics.
NBA
Miami at Toronto - Heat by 6
Orlando at Milwaukee - Bucks by 9
New York at LA Clippers - Clippers by 8
Golden State at Houston - Rockets by 8
New Orleans at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 3
Oklahoma City at Dallas - Thunder by 6
Atlanta at Brooklyn - Nets by 3
Sacramento at LA Lakers - Lakers by 9
College Basketball
(25) VCU vs. (16) Saint Louis - Rams by 2
North Carolina vs. (9) Miami - Hurricanes by 1
Ole Miss vs. (13) Florida - Gators by 10
(22) Wisconsin vs. (10) Ohio State - Badgers by 1
Prediction Results
NBA: 4-2 (.667) 663-318 overall (.676)
College Basketball: 14-7 (.667) 1151-325 overall (.780)
Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 127-99 overall (.562)
NBA
Miami at Toronto - Heat by 6
Orlando at Milwaukee - Bucks by 9
New York at LA Clippers - Clippers by 8
Golden State at Houston - Rockets by 8
New Orleans at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 3
Oklahoma City at Dallas - Thunder by 6
Atlanta at Brooklyn - Nets by 3
Sacramento at LA Lakers - Lakers by 9
College Basketball
(25) VCU vs. (16) Saint Louis - Rams by 2
North Carolina vs. (9) Miami - Hurricanes by 1
Ole Miss vs. (13) Florida - Gators by 10
(22) Wisconsin vs. (10) Ohio State - Badgers by 1
Prediction Results
NBA: 4-2 (.667) 663-318 overall (.676)
College Basketball: 14-7 (.667) 1151-325 overall (.780)
Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 127-99 overall (.562)
Saturday, March 16, 2013
Basketball Predictions - 16 Mar
Upset picks are in italics.
College Basketball
Wisconsin vs. (3) Indiana - Hoosiers by 7
(19) Syracuse vs. (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 6
(11) Kansas State vs. (7) Kansas - Jayhawks by 6
(8) Michigan State vs. (10) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 1
North Carolina State vs. (9) Miami - Hurricanes by 1
Alabama vs. (13) Florida - Gators by 15
UNLV vs. (15) New Mexico - Rebels by 5
Butler vs. (16) Saint Louis - Billikens by 4
Southern Miss vs. (20) Memphis - Tigers by 1
Oregon vs. (21) UCLA - Bruins by 1
Massachusetts vs. (25) VCU - Rams by 10
Albany at Vermont - Catamounts by 1
Maryland vs. North Carolina - Tar Heels by 4
Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss - Commodores by 1
Prairie View A&M vs. Southern - Jaguars by 13
North Carolina A&T vs. Morgan State - Bears by 2
Ohio vs. Akron - Zips by 2
Northwestern State vs. Stephen F Austin - Lumberjacks by 4
Weber State at Montana - Grizzlies by 1
UC-Irvine vs. Pacific - Tigers by 1
Texas-Arlington vs. New Mexico State - Aggies by 5
NBA
Phoenix at Washington - Wizards by 6
Charlotte at Boston - Celtics by 14
Indiana at Philadelphia - Pacers by 6
Cleveland at San Antonio - Spurs by 14
Memphis at Utah - Grizzlies by 2
Detroit at Portland - Trail Blazers by 7
Prediction Results
NBA: 8-2 (.800) 659-316 overall (.676)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 115-88 overall (.567)
College Basketball: 29-11 (.725) 1137-328 overall (.776)
Upsets: 3-6 (.333) 126-97 overall (.565)
College Basketball
Wisconsin vs. (3) Indiana - Hoosiers by 7
(19) Syracuse vs. (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 6
(11) Kansas State vs. (7) Kansas - Jayhawks by 6
(8) Michigan State vs. (10) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 1
North Carolina State vs. (9) Miami - Hurricanes by 1
Alabama vs. (13) Florida - Gators by 15
UNLV vs. (15) New Mexico - Rebels by 5
Butler vs. (16) Saint Louis - Billikens by 4
Southern Miss vs. (20) Memphis - Tigers by 1
Oregon vs. (21) UCLA - Bruins by 1
Massachusetts vs. (25) VCU - Rams by 10
Albany at Vermont - Catamounts by 1
Maryland vs. North Carolina - Tar Heels by 4
Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss - Commodores by 1
Prairie View A&M vs. Southern - Jaguars by 13
North Carolina A&T vs. Morgan State - Bears by 2
Ohio vs. Akron - Zips by 2
Northwestern State vs. Stephen F Austin - Lumberjacks by 4
Weber State at Montana - Grizzlies by 1
UC-Irvine vs. Pacific - Tigers by 1
Texas-Arlington vs. New Mexico State - Aggies by 5
NBA
Phoenix at Washington - Wizards by 6
Charlotte at Boston - Celtics by 14
Indiana at Philadelphia - Pacers by 6
Cleveland at San Antonio - Spurs by 14
Memphis at Utah - Grizzlies by 2
Detroit at Portland - Trail Blazers by 7
Prediction Results
NBA: 8-2 (.800) 659-316 overall (.676)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 115-88 overall (.567)
College Basketball: 29-11 (.725) 1137-328 overall (.776)
Upsets: 3-6 (.333) 126-97 overall (.565)
Friday, March 15, 2013
NBA Rankings - 15 Mar
San Antonio has now joined Miami in the playoff berth club, and Oklahoma City is looking to join them this week. Despite the fact that they will be the third team to clinch their berth, they are still the top team in my rankings, holding that spot for the third straight week, even after losing to the Spurs during the week. Here are my full rankings, with teams grouped by similar level of performance and projected final record in parentheses, as well as the change from last week's projection.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (Projected) Seed (Change)
1. (1) Oklahoma City (2-1) 48-17 (62-20) 1W
2. (2) San Antonio (2-1) 50-16 (61-21) 2W (-1)
3. (3) Miami (3-0) 49-14 (64-18) 1E (+1)
4. (4) LA Clippers (1-1) 45-21 (56-26) 3W (-1)
5. (5) Denver (3-0) 44-22 (54-28) 5W (+1)
6. (8) Memphis (3-0) 44-19 (56-26) 4W (+2)
7. (7) Houston (1-1) 35-30 (46-36) 6W (-1)
8. (6) Indiana (1-1) 40-24 (52-30) 2E
9. (10) LA Lakers (2-1) 34-32 (43-39) 8W
10. (9) New York (1-3) 38-25 (48-34) 3E (-2)
11. (16) Dallas (2-1) 30-34 (39-43) 10W (+1)
12. (15) Brooklyn (2-1) 38-27 (47-35) 4E (+1)
13. (11) Boston (1-2) 35-29 (45-37) 6E
14. (12) Atlanta (1-2) 35-29 (45-37) 5E (-1)
15. (17) Golden State (2-1) 37-29 (45-37) 7W
16. (14) Utah (1-2) 33-32 (41-41) 9W (-1)
17. (13) Chicago (0-2) 35-29 (44-38) 7E (-1)
18. (19) Portland (1-2) 30-34 (38-44) 11W
19. (18) Toronto (1-1) 25-40 (34-48) 9E
20. (20) Milwaukee (2-2) 32-31 (41-41) 8E
21. (22) New Orleans (1-2) 22-43 (29-53) 13W
22. (23) Washington (2-1) 21-42 (29-53) 12E
23. (21) Cleveland (1-1) 22-42 (29-53) 11E
24. (24) Minnesota (1-3) 22-40 (30-52) 12W
25. (27) Sacramento (1-1) 23-43 (28-54) 14W
26. (26) Philadelphia (1-2) 24-40 (30-52) 10E
27. (25) Detroit (0-3) 23-44 (29-53) 13E
28. (28) Phoenix (1-2) 22-43 (27-55) 15W
29. (29) Orlando (1-1) 18-47 (21-61) 14E
30. (30) Charlotte (1-1) 14-50 (18-64) 15E (+1)
Sacramento is once again one of the hottest teams in the league, which is quite strange since they are so far out of playoff contention and haven't won consecutive games in over a month, but they blew out the Chicago Bulls by 42 points the other night, getting them their first win over a playoff-bound team since they beat Houston on February 10th. It may not mean much, but I'm sure the fans in Sacramento appreciate the hot finish.
Dallas has also been hot lately, but in their case it could mean something. The Mavericks still have some hope of making the playoffs, although with how hot the Lakers have been lately, it may be tough to catch up with so few games left. Their only loss this week was by 1 point in San Antonio last night, and a win there would have really helped, but instead they had to settle for a moral victory.
Memphis has also been playing well, and their most recent win was a very important one in the playoff race, because it came against the team they are fighting for the #3 seed, the Los Angeles Clippers. Not only did they win the game, but it came in LA, and it gave them 6 straight wins and 14 in their last 15 games, with the only loss coming to Miami, who is on a historic winning streak at the moment.
Speaking of hot, have you seen the Charlotte Bobcats lately? Probably not, but they pulled a surprise upset on Tuesday against Boston, taking out the Celtics in a 26-point blowout, getting their first win over a potential playoff team since last time the Celtics came to town, one month earlier. Charlotte is still the favorite to end up with the worst record and get the best odds in the draft lottery, but you have to give them credit when they do something well, right?
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
LA Lakers at Indiana - Pacers by 6
Charlotte at Toronto - Raptors by 12
New Orleans at Washington - Wizards by 3
Phoenix at Atlanta - Hawks by 9
Minnesota at Houston - Rockets by 11
Orlando at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 21
Miami at Milwaukee - Heat by 6
Cleveland at Dallas - Mavericks by 7
Memphis at Denver - Nuggets by 4
Chicago at Golden State - Warriors by 4
College Basketball
Maryland vs. (2) Duke - Blue Devils by 12
Illinois vs. (3) Indiana - Hoosiers by 12
(24) Notre Dame vs. (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 9
(19) Syracuse vs. (5) Georgetown - Orange by 1
(6) Michigan vs. (22) Wisconsin - Wolverines by 1
Iowa State vs. (7) Kansas - Jayhawks by 5
Iowa vs. (8) Michigan State - Spartans by 5
Boston College vs. (9) Miami - Hurricanes by 9
Nebraska vs. (10) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 14
(14) Oklahoma State vs. (11) Kansas State - Cowboys by 2
LSU vs. (13) Florida - Gators by 18
San Diego State vs. (15) New Mexico - Lobos by 1
Charlotte vs. (16) Saint Louis - Billikens by 12
(18) Arizona vs. (21) UCLA - Wildcats by 4
Tulsa vs. (20) Memphis - Tigers by 10
Saint Joseph's vs. (25) VCU - Rams by 9
Butler vs. LaSalle - Explorers by 2
North Carolina State vs. Virginia - Cavaliers by 1
Tennessee vs. Alabama - Volunteers by 3
Prairie View A&M vs. Jackson State - Tigers by 4
UTEP vs. Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 6
Bethune Cookman vs. Morgan State - Bears by 4
Southeast Louisiana vs. Stephen F Austin - Lumberjacks by 13
Kent State vs. Akron - Zips by 4
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky - Wildcats by 6
North Dakota vs. Weber State - Wildcats by 12
North Carolina A&T vs. Delaware State - Aggies by 5
Sam Houston State vs. Northwestern State - Demons by 6
Florida State vs. North Carolina - Tar Heels by 9
Texas State vs. New Mexico State - Aggies by 12
Western Michigan vs. Ohio - Bobcats by 6
Massachusetts vs. Temple - Owls by 4
Alabama A&M vs. Southern - Jaguars by 14
UC-Irvine vs. Long Beach State - Anteaters by 5
Missouri vs. Ole Miss - Tigers by 3
Northern Colorado at Montana - Grizzlies by 10
Texas-San Antonio vs. Texas-Arlington - Mavericks by 4
Utah vs. Oregon - Ducks by 6
Colorado State at UNLV - Rebels by 5
Cal Poly vs. Pacific - Tigers by 1
Prediction Results
NBA: 1-1 (.500) 651-314 overall (.675)
College Basketball: 32-19 (.627) 1108-317 overall (.778)
Upsets: 5-6 (.455) 123-91 overall (.575)
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (Projected) Seed (Change)
1. (1) Oklahoma City (2-1) 48-17 (62-20) 1W
2. (2) San Antonio (2-1) 50-16 (61-21) 2W (-1)
3. (3) Miami (3-0) 49-14 (64-18) 1E (+1)
4. (4) LA Clippers (1-1) 45-21 (56-26) 3W (-1)
5. (5) Denver (3-0) 44-22 (54-28) 5W (+1)
6. (8) Memphis (3-0) 44-19 (56-26) 4W (+2)
7. (7) Houston (1-1) 35-30 (46-36) 6W (-1)
8. (6) Indiana (1-1) 40-24 (52-30) 2E
9. (10) LA Lakers (2-1) 34-32 (43-39) 8W
10. (9) New York (1-3) 38-25 (48-34) 3E (-2)
11. (16) Dallas (2-1) 30-34 (39-43) 10W (+1)
12. (15) Brooklyn (2-1) 38-27 (47-35) 4E (+1)
13. (11) Boston (1-2) 35-29 (45-37) 6E
14. (12) Atlanta (1-2) 35-29 (45-37) 5E (-1)
15. (17) Golden State (2-1) 37-29 (45-37) 7W
16. (14) Utah (1-2) 33-32 (41-41) 9W (-1)
17. (13) Chicago (0-2) 35-29 (44-38) 7E (-1)
18. (19) Portland (1-2) 30-34 (38-44) 11W
19. (18) Toronto (1-1) 25-40 (34-48) 9E
20. (20) Milwaukee (2-2) 32-31 (41-41) 8E
21. (22) New Orleans (1-2) 22-43 (29-53) 13W
22. (23) Washington (2-1) 21-42 (29-53) 12E
23. (21) Cleveland (1-1) 22-42 (29-53) 11E
24. (24) Minnesota (1-3) 22-40 (30-52) 12W
25. (27) Sacramento (1-1) 23-43 (28-54) 14W
26. (26) Philadelphia (1-2) 24-40 (30-52) 10E
27. (25) Detroit (0-3) 23-44 (29-53) 13E
28. (28) Phoenix (1-2) 22-43 (27-55) 15W
29. (29) Orlando (1-1) 18-47 (21-61) 14E
30. (30) Charlotte (1-1) 14-50 (18-64) 15E (+1)
Sacramento is once again one of the hottest teams in the league, which is quite strange since they are so far out of playoff contention and haven't won consecutive games in over a month, but they blew out the Chicago Bulls by 42 points the other night, getting them their first win over a playoff-bound team since they beat Houston on February 10th. It may not mean much, but I'm sure the fans in Sacramento appreciate the hot finish.
Dallas has also been hot lately, but in their case it could mean something. The Mavericks still have some hope of making the playoffs, although with how hot the Lakers have been lately, it may be tough to catch up with so few games left. Their only loss this week was by 1 point in San Antonio last night, and a win there would have really helped, but instead they had to settle for a moral victory.
Memphis has also been playing well, and their most recent win was a very important one in the playoff race, because it came against the team they are fighting for the #3 seed, the Los Angeles Clippers. Not only did they win the game, but it came in LA, and it gave them 6 straight wins and 14 in their last 15 games, with the only loss coming to Miami, who is on a historic winning streak at the moment.
Speaking of hot, have you seen the Charlotte Bobcats lately? Probably not, but they pulled a surprise upset on Tuesday against Boston, taking out the Celtics in a 26-point blowout, getting their first win over a potential playoff team since last time the Celtics came to town, one month earlier. Charlotte is still the favorite to end up with the worst record and get the best odds in the draft lottery, but you have to give them credit when they do something well, right?
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
LA Lakers at Indiana - Pacers by 6
Charlotte at Toronto - Raptors by 12
New Orleans at Washington - Wizards by 3
Phoenix at Atlanta - Hawks by 9
Minnesota at Houston - Rockets by 11
Orlando at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 21
Miami at Milwaukee - Heat by 6
Cleveland at Dallas - Mavericks by 7
Memphis at Denver - Nuggets by 4
Chicago at Golden State - Warriors by 4
College Basketball
Maryland vs. (2) Duke - Blue Devils by 12
Illinois vs. (3) Indiana - Hoosiers by 12
(24) Notre Dame vs. (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 9
(19) Syracuse vs. (5) Georgetown - Orange by 1
(6) Michigan vs. (22) Wisconsin - Wolverines by 1
Iowa State vs. (7) Kansas - Jayhawks by 5
Iowa vs. (8) Michigan State - Spartans by 5
Boston College vs. (9) Miami - Hurricanes by 9
Nebraska vs. (10) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 14
(14) Oklahoma State vs. (11) Kansas State - Cowboys by 2
LSU vs. (13) Florida - Gators by 18
San Diego State vs. (15) New Mexico - Lobos by 1
Charlotte vs. (16) Saint Louis - Billikens by 12
(18) Arizona vs. (21) UCLA - Wildcats by 4
Tulsa vs. (20) Memphis - Tigers by 10
Saint Joseph's vs. (25) VCU - Rams by 9
Butler vs. LaSalle - Explorers by 2
North Carolina State vs. Virginia - Cavaliers by 1
Tennessee vs. Alabama - Volunteers by 3
Prairie View A&M vs. Jackson State - Tigers by 4
UTEP vs. Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 6
Bethune Cookman vs. Morgan State - Bears by 4
Southeast Louisiana vs. Stephen F Austin - Lumberjacks by 13
Kent State vs. Akron - Zips by 4
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky - Wildcats by 6
North Dakota vs. Weber State - Wildcats by 12
North Carolina A&T vs. Delaware State - Aggies by 5
Sam Houston State vs. Northwestern State - Demons by 6
Florida State vs. North Carolina - Tar Heels by 9
Texas State vs. New Mexico State - Aggies by 12
Western Michigan vs. Ohio - Bobcats by 6
Massachusetts vs. Temple - Owls by 4
Alabama A&M vs. Southern - Jaguars by 14
UC-Irvine vs. Long Beach State - Anteaters by 5
Missouri vs. Ole Miss - Tigers by 3
Northern Colorado at Montana - Grizzlies by 10
Texas-San Antonio vs. Texas-Arlington - Mavericks by 4
Utah vs. Oregon - Ducks by 6
Colorado State at UNLV - Rebels by 5
Cal Poly vs. Pacific - Tigers by 1
Prediction Results
NBA: 1-1 (.500) 651-314 overall (.675)
College Basketball: 32-19 (.627) 1108-317 overall (.778)
Upsets: 5-6 (.455) 123-91 overall (.575)
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