College Basketball Bracket Odds and Predictions

The wait is over. The greatest month of basketball begins tonight, as 68 teams are whittled down to one, and the field has never been more wide-open. I have broken down the odds of each team advancing to any point in the tournament, and am also predicting the total number of upsets and Cinderellas to expect and which teams are over- and under-rated. Let the fun begin.

Best Teams Left Out of the Field

Teams are listed according to final ranking by my formula.

37. Stony Brook
39. Iowa
40. Virginia
42. Baylor
43. Kentucky
45. Denver
46. Southern Miss
47. Maryland

None of these teams is a major snub, although I really would have liked to see Stony Brook play on, after the way they dominated the American East Conference through the regular season before falling in the conference tournament. Of the five teams I felt were left out of the field last year, 3 were included in this season's field: Miami, Middle Tennessee, and Arizona. You can expect some of these teams to be strong again next year.

Teams That Should Have Been Left Out

Teams listed by my final ranking, with tournament seed in parentheses.

49. LaSalle (13)
52. Oklahoma (10)
53. UCLA (6)
55. Colorado (10)
58. Butler (6)
63. Temple (9)
64. Villanova (9)
72. California (12)

The bottom 3 are the ones I definitely feel should not be in the tourney, but if only the best teams got in, none of these teams would still be playing games that matter. Among the 5 teams I felt shouldn't have made it last year, 3 lost in the first round, with Xavier making the Sweet 16 due to two very lucky matchups.

Most Underseeded Teams

These teams were not seeded as high as I feel they should have been according to their body of work over the course of the season, and that makes each of them a candidate to pull off some early upsets.

1. Middle Tennessee
2. Ole Miss
3. Saint Mary's
4. Pittsburgh
5. Albany
6. Minnesota
7. Missouri
8. Creighton
9. Boise State
10. Belmont
11. Wisconsin

Among last season's underseeded teams, Florida had the most success, going two rounds farther than expected as they advanced to the Elite Eight as a #7 seed. Belmont makes its third straight appearance on this list, but not at the #1 spot that they are used to. Sadly, Middle Tennessee and Saint Mary's have to play each other in a play-in game, so one of them will not be able to show what they can do, but either one should have a good chance at beating Memphis in the round of 64. Ole Miss and Wisconsin are also playing in the first round, so one of them will also be going home without going as far as they should.

Most Overseeded Teams

These are the teams that were given too much credit for their season, and may fall prey to an early-round upset.

1. Marquette
2. Butler
3. Kansas State
4. UCLA
5. UNLV
6. Temple
7. Villanova
8. Miami
9. Memphis
10. Illinois

Last season, 7 of the 9 teams I put on this list lost in the first round, and Xavier would have but they were facing another team on this list in round 1. Kansas State, UCLA, and Memphis are all in the most trouble of the teams on this list, since they are all facing teams on my underseeded list.

Number of First-Round Upsets

10.4

Last season I predicted 10.9 first-round upsets, and there were a total of 10, so my prediction was right on. Anywhere from 9 to 11 is quite likely this time around, so make sure not to pick too many or too few.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

Which upsets should you picks to fill in those 10.4 spots? Here are the ones that are most likely to happen.

(11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA - 57.4%
(11) Middle Tennessee/Saint Mary's over (6) Memphis - 54.7%
(9) Missouri over (8) Colorado State - 53.7%
(11) Bucknell over (6) Butler - 50.3%
(10) Colorado over (7) Illinois - 48.5%
(10) Iowa State over (7) Notre Dame - 48.1%
(11) Belmont over (6) Arizona - 46.9%
(13) Boise State/LaSalle over (4) Kansas State - 46.3%
(14) Davidson over (3) Marquette - 44.7%
(10) Oklahoma over (7) San Diego State - 43.7%
(12) Ole Miss over (5) Wisconsin - 41.5%
(9) Temple over (8) North Carolina State - 41.3%
(12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State - 40.8%
(9) Wichita State over (8) Pittsburgh - 40.7%
(9) Villanova over (8) North Carolina - 40.4%

These 15 games are the best places to look for your upsets. Last season, 7 of the 10 upsets that happened were on my list of 13 possible upsets, so you should definitely pull most of your upsets from here.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull Off an Upset

(15) Albany over (2) Duke - 27.2%
(15) Iona over (2) Ohio State - 23.0%
(15) Pacific over (2) Miami - 20.7%
(15) Florida Gulf Coast over (2) Georgetown - 20.3%

This season's batch of #16 seeds is pretty weak, so it's up to the #15 seeds to pull off the big upset. Last season, I listed Lehigh over Duke as the most likely huge upset, and I'm sure you remember what happened to the Blue Devils. There's a pretty good chance that you will see one of these upsets happen this year, but I wouldn't go so far as to guarantee it.

Most Likely Cinderellas

These are the lower-seeded teams most likely to reach the Sweet 16.

(11) Middle Tennessee/Saint Mary's - 28.1% (16.1%/12.0%)
(11) Belmont - 24.4%
(11) Bucknell - 23.6%
(12) Ole Miss - 22.6%
(14) Davidson - 22.4%
(10) Colorado - 21.2%
(10) Iowa State - 20.3%
(10) Oklahoma - 18.7%
(12) Oregon - 18.6%
(13) Boise State/LaSalle - 17.8% (9.3%/8.5%)
(9) Missouri - 16.5%
(11) Minnesota - 16.2%
(12) Akron - 15.2%

Last season, all 3 actual Cinderellas were listed among my top 9, so you probably shouldn't look elsewhere for your deep tourney runs by low seeds.

Number of Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16

3.5

Last season I predicted 3.8, and there ended up being 3, so you'd be pretty safe to pick 3 of them to play into the second week again this year.

Number of #1 Seeds in the Final Four

1.3

Last season the number was 1.1, and exactly one top seed made it to the Final Four, so picking one or two is probably the best way to go. Seeing 3 or 4 is very unlikely.

Odds That a #1 Seed Wins the Tournament

44.9%

Last season I only had it at 37.2%, and Kentucky ended up winning, so this year there's a pretty good chance that one of those 4 will be the final team standing.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(1) Indiana - 77.5%
(3) Florida - 74.9%
(1) Louisville - 70.9%
(1) Gonzaga - 64.4%
(1) Kansas - 64.2%
(4) Syracuse - 54.7%
(2) Miami - 48.9%
(2) Ohio State - 48.5%
(2) Georgetown - 47.4%
(2) Duke - 45.2%
(4) Michigan - 42.6%
(3) Michigan State - 38.6%
(4) Saint Louis - 37.8%
(5) Wisconsin - 37.0%
(3) New Mexico - 36.8%
(5) VCU - 34.8%
(5) Oklahoma State - 32.5%
(7) Creighton - 31.1%
(3) Marquette - 30.7%

Last season, I picked the 10 most likely Sweet 16 teams, and 7 of them made it at least that far. Wisconsin is the seed most likely to make the Sweet 16 that shouldn't according to its seed, and Florida and Syracuse are the two teams that aren't #1 or #2 who are most likely to get through this week.

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Indiana - 42.9%
(1) Louisville - 35.4%
(3) Florida - 34.9%
(1) Gonzaga - 28.8%
(1) Kansas - 20.7%
(2) Ohio State - 15.5%
(2) Duke - 15.4%
(4) Syracuse - 14.0%
(2) Miami - 12.2%

Many analysts have said that Indiana has the toughest path to the Final Four of any of the top seeds, but in fact the opposite is true. Their regions features overrated teams at #2, #3, #5, #6, #7, and #9, with only Syracuse posing a real threat to the Hoosiers making a deep run. Last season, 3 of the 5 teams I listed as most likely to make the Final Four were there, with Louisville the only surprise.

Most Likely Champions

(1) Indiana - 16.0%
(1) Louisville - 13.7%
(3) Florida - 12.9%
(1) Gonzaga - 9.3%
(1) Kansas - 5.9%
(2) Duke - 4.7%
(2) Ohio State - 3.8%
(4) Syracuse - 3.0%
(2) Miami - 2.2%
(4) Michigan - 2.1%
(5) Wisconsin - 2.0%

While I don't think Indiana is the best team, they are the most likely to win because of their easy path to the Final Four. Last season, I had Kentucky as the most likely team to win the championship, just ahead of Ohio State.

Overall Bracket

This is how the bracket will turn out if the better team wins every game, with upset picks in italics.

First Round

(1) Louisville
(9) Missouri
(5) Oklahoma State
(4) Saint Louis
(11) Middle Tennessee/Saint Mary's
(3) Michigan State
(7) Creighton
(2) Duke

(1) Gonzaga
(8) Pittsburgh
(5) Wisconsin
(4) Kansas State
(6) Arizona
(3) New Mexico
(7) Notre Dame
(2) Ohio State

(1) Kansas
(8) North Carolina
(5) VCU
(4) Michigan
(11) Minnesota
(3) Florida
(7) San Diego State
(2) Georgetown

(1) Indiana
(8) North Carolina State
(5) UNLV
(4) Syracuse
(11) Bucknell
(3) Marquette
(7) Illinois
(2) Miami

Sweet 16

(1) Louisville
(5) Wisconsin
(3) New Mexico
(2) Ohio State

(1) Gonzaga
(4) Saint Louis
(3) Michigan State
(2) Duke

(1) Kansas
(4) Michigan
(3) Florida
(2) Georgetown

(1) Indiana
(4) Syracuse
(3) Marquette
(2) Miami

Elite Eight

(1) Louisville
(2) Ohio State

(1) Gonzaga
(2) Duke

(1) Kansas
(3) Florida

(1) Indiana
(2) Miami

Final Four

(1) Louisville
(1) Gonzaga
(3) Florida
(1) Indiana

Championship

(1) Louisville
(1) Indiana

Champion

(1) Louisville

These obviously aren't my official picks, because I like to try to include plenty of upsets in the brackets I submit to contests, but last season, picking according to my formula before the tourney began, I was able to pick 75% of the first round correct, and at least half of the teams that would advance to each round, although Ohio State was my pick to win last season, which didn't quite happen. Feel free to use these odds as a guideline to help you find the best upsets and favorites to ride through the tourney, and have fun watching the greatest month in sports.