Top 50 NFL Quarterbacks: #50 - Joe Theismann

Joe Theismann

Today, Joe Theismann is probably best known for the gruesome leg injury that ended his career in 1985, but in the few seasons leading up to that he had become one of the top quarterbacks in the game, and who knows how much more he would have accomplished had he been able to keep playing.

He was drafted by the Miami Dolphins in 1971, but after being unable to reach a contract agreement, he elected to play in the CFL, where he was an all-star twice in three seasons. In 1974, Miami gave up and traded his rights to Washington, and he decided to move back to the States and join his new team. He was a punt returner for his first couple of seasons, before moving up to backup quarterback for two years, then finally starting quarterback in 1978, at the age of 29.

He improved slowly year by year, increasing his passing yardage each year through 1981, when he threw for 3568, but Washington could not make the playoffs. That changed in 1982, when the season was shortened to 9 games by a strike. Theismann led the Redskins to an 8-1 record, tops in the league, then plowed through the first three rounds of the playoffs, winning all three games by at least 14 points.

The Redskins relied heavily on running back John Riggins in Super Bowl XVII, but it was Theismann who made one of the biggest plays of the game. Late in the third quarter, with his team trailing 17-13, Theismann's pass was tipped at the line and was about to be intercepted when Theismann stepped in and batted the ball away, preventing a sure touchdown and a double-digit deficit. Washington went on to win 27-17.

The following season was the best of his career, as he threw for career highs of 3714 yards and 29 touchdowns, and again led Washington to the league's best record, this time at 14-2. He was named the league MVP for his performance, and it kept going in the playoffs, as the Redskins outscored their first two opponents 75-28 on their way to a repeat appearance in the Super Bowl. He lost the chance at a repeat title, though, when he was outplayed by Jim Plunkett and the Raiders, losing the game 38-9.

1984 brought another playoff berth and division title, but they were surprised by the Chicago Bears in the playoffs, ending their season prematurely. He was off to a rough start in 1985 when his career ended on a sack by Lawrence Taylor. As he was taken down, his lower leg was snapped in half, and when it healed, his right leg was significantly shorter than the left, forcing him to retire.

He got a late start on his career, and it ended earlier than expected, but at his peak in 1982 and 1983, he led his team to a 28-4 overall record and won an MVP and a Super Bowl. The strength of those two seasons is what earned him this position on the all-time list.

Top 50 NFL Quarterbacks: Intro

Four years ago I released the first version of my rankings of the 50 greatest NFL quarterbacks of all time. While I feel that it was a somewhat good representation of their greatness over time, I did feel like there were some flaws in the system, causing some players to be ranked too high or too low, or to miss out on the top 50 altogether.

One issue I discovered is that players from all eras were being judged on the basis of the current game, which emphasizes passing more than it did in previous eras. I felt it was more fair to judge players based on how well they performed in the league in which they played, so I calculated the average quarterback output in each major category on a per dropback basis for each season, then calculated how far above or below average each quarterback was during that specific season. Each positive score was added together to attain a cumulative career score for each player, while negative scores were discarded.

Another issue that I discovered is that the rushing abilities of many quarterbacks was being minimized, which made many of the other per dropback averages look bad. I was able to incorporate this more fully into the formula this time, putting it on equal footing with yards gained through the air, because both are positives for the team.

This system rewards not only short periods of greatness, but also sustained periods of solid play, with the top players on the list having sustained periods of greatness. Players need to play at a high level, meaning minimizing turnovers and yards lost, while maximizing positive yardage and scoring. In addition, longevity is very important, though that longevity must go along with solid play. Also, winning matters, because quarterback is the single most important position in sports and has the greatest impact on team success, so playoff performance is also included in the formula, giving players a bonus for how well they performed in postseason games. Winning the Super Bowl does not always mean positive points for a player, because sometimes the team wins in spite of quarterback play, but great play, especially in a championship situation, can give a big boost to a player.

Nine of the 10 players from my previous top 10 remained in those spots in this iteration of the rankings, and 38 of the previous top 50 are back this time, with only 3 of those spots being taken by current players who played their way onto the list and 9 coming from older players who were missed on the previous version. 30 teams have a representative on the list, meaning a player who earned points while playing for that team, with just the Texans and Jaguars, two of the newest franchises, being shut out. An additional 4 teams, the Buccaneers, Cardinals, Jets, and Lions, are not the primary team of any player on the list, while the 49ers top the list with 4 such players.

There are 9 players each whose primary decade was the 2010's, 2000's, or 1990's, with slightly fewer in each of the earlier decades when there were fewer teams and players. There are also 9 current quarterbacks on the list, with three others who have retired in the past few years. 60 total championships are represented, including many before the creation of the Super Bowl, but 24 of the players represented do not have a ring.

I plan to reveal the 50 players over the course of the summer, finishing up before the new season starts, and I will update this post with a list of the players who have been revealed and a link to their writeup. While no ranking system can be perfect, especially with differing opinions and favoritism toward players on your favorite team, I feel that this ranking is a very good representation of the best players ever at the position. My purpose is not to create arguments about a player's worthiness to be on the list or at a certain rank, but rather to celebrate the greatness of these 50 men. I hope you enjoy it.

1. Tom Brady - Patriots - 2010's
2. Joe Montana - 49ers - 1980's
3. Steve Young - 49ers - 1990's
4. Peyton Manning - Colts - 2000's
5. Otto Graham - Browns - 1950's
6. Aaron Rodgers - Packers - 2010's
7. Drew Brees - Saints - 2010's
8. Brett Favre - Packers - 1990's
9. Dan Marino - Dolphins - 1980's
10. John Elway - Broncos - 1990's
11. Sid Luckman - Bears - 1940's
12. Terry Bradshaw - Steelers - 1960's
13. Bart Starr - Packers - 1960's
14. Roger Staubach - Cowboys - 1970's
15. Kurt Warner - Rams - 2000's
16. Fran Tarkenton - Vikings - 1970's
17. Donovan McNabb - Eagles - 2000's
18. Ben Roethlisberger - Steelers - 2000's
19. Steve McNair - Titans - 2000's
20. Johnny Unitas - Colts - 1960's
21. Matt Ryan - Falcons - 2010's
22. Randall Cunningham - Eagles - 1990's
23. Tobin Rote - Chargers - 1950's
24. Russell Wilson - Seahawks - 2010's
25. Ken Anderson - Bengals - 1970's
26. Len Dawson - Chiefs - 1960's
27. Cam Newton - Panthers - 2010's
28. Troy Aikman - Cowboys - 1990's
29. Jeff Garcia - 49ers - 2000's
30. Daryle Lamonica - Raiders - 1960's
31. Warren Moon - Oilers - 1990's
32. Rich Gannon - Raiders - 2000's
33. Ken Stabler - Raiders - 1970's
34. Alex Smith - Chiefs - 2010's
35. Daunte Culpepper - Vikings - 2000's
36. Charlie Conerly - Giants - 1950's
37. Jim McMahon - Bears - 1980's
38. Philip Rivers - Chargers - 2010's
39. Dan Fouts - Chargers - 1980's
40. Tony Romo - Cowboys - 2010's
41. Michael Vick - Eagles - 2000's
42. Roman Gabriel - Rams - 1960's
43. Boomer Esiason - Bengals - 1980's
44. Y.A. Tittle - 49ers - 1950's
45. Jeff Hostetler - Giants - 1990's
46. Norm Van Brocklin - Rams - 1950's
47. Kordell Stewart - Steelers - 1990's
48. Steve Grogan - Patriots - 1980's
49. Jim Kelly - Bills - 1990's
50. Joe Theismann - Redskins - 1980's

NBA Finals Odds

The NBA Finals begin this weekend, with the two-time defending champs facing the Toronto Raptors in a very interesting matchup. (By the way, this is the matchup I predicted at the beginning of the playoffs.)

First of all, the Golden State Warriors are only the second team to reach the NBA Finals for 5 straight seasons, joining the Boston Celtics, who reached 10 straight from 1957-1966. The Toronto Raptors, meanwhile, are playing in their first ever championship series, meaning Game 1 will be the first Finals game ever played outside the United States.

This series also boasts 4 of the past 5 Finals MVP's, with 2014 MVP Kawhi Leonard now in Toronto, 2015 MVP Andre Iguodala playing an important supporting role for the Warriors, two-time defending MVP Kevin Durant questionable to play for the Warriors after injuring his leg a couple weeks ago. Though Durant may be the best player on either team, his absence doesn't kill the Warriors' chances. In fact, the Warriors are 33-4 when Curry plays but Durant does not over the past 3 seasons, meaning that Curry is stepping in to fill that void when he is needed.

This series also boasts 3 of the past 4 Defensive Players of the Year, with 2017 winner Draymond Green and Kawhi Leonard, who won the award during the two previous seasons, facing off this year. Both are versatile defenders who are usually assigned to the opponent's best player, but the Warriors also have Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala available to defend Leonard, while Golden State's best player is Curry right now, and his speed may be tough for Leonard to cover.

I've broken down the odds of any possible pattern of wins happening in this series, and am breaking it down by winner and length of series:

Raptors in 4 - 3.5%
Raptors in 5 - 9.9%
Raptors in 6 - 10.1%
Raptors in 7 - 15.9%
Raptors total - 39.4%

Warriors in 4 - 9.4%
Warriors in 5 - 14.8%
Warriors in 6 - 21.8%
Warriors in 7 - 14.5%
Warriors total - 60.6%

The first two games in Toronto will be super important. Toronto's best chance comes in a long series, which means they need to win their home games to keep the series going. The Warriors' best odds come in a medium length series, so they will need to steal home court from Toronto, which will be easier to do in the first two games, because a 2-0 road hole is difficult to overcome, though the Raptors proved it was possible just a couple days ago.

Taking everything into account, my prediction for this year's champion is:

Warriors in 6

Updated NBA Playoff Odds

Each NBA playoff series has now gone 2 games, with half of the series tied at 1-1, and half at 2-0 in favor of the higher seed. I've recalculated each team's odds of advancing after adding in the results of the past 5 days, and the results are below, with change since the beginning of the playoffs in parentheses:

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Bucks - 98.8% (+4.5)
2. Warriors - 89.2% (-5.5)
3. Rockets - 87.7% (+28.7)
4. Celtics - 87.6% (+22.4)
5. Raptors - 87.3% (-5.3)
6. Trail Blazers - 82.2% (+28.9)
7. 76ers - 68.3% (-7.1)
8. Nuggets - 52.1% (-7.6)
9. Spurs - 47.9% (+7.6)
10. Nets - 31.7% (+7.1)
11. Thunder - 17.8% (-28.9)
12. Magic - 12.7% (+5.3)
13. Pacers - 12.4% (-22.4)
14. Jazz - 12.3% (-28.7)
15. Clippers - 10.8% (+5.5)
16. Pistons - 1.2% (-4.5)

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

1. Bucks - 80.1% (+3.3)
2. Raptors - 76.5% (-3.6)
3. Warriors - 60.6% (-8.3)
4. Trail Blazers - 53.3% (+20.2)
5. Rockets - 34.8% (+15.6)
6. Nuggets - 21.4% (-4.2)
7. Celtics - 18.3% (+2.1)
8. 76ers - 15.6% (+0.4)
9. Spurs - 14.5% (+1.9)
10. Thunder - 10.8% (-17.9)
11. Magic - 4.7% (+2.0)
12. Jazz - 3.3% (-7.9)
13. Nets - 3.2% (+1.2)
14. Pacers - 1.4% (-4.3)
15. Clippers - 1.3% (+0.5)
16. Pistons - 0.2% (-1.2)

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

1. Bucks - 52.6% (+4.7)
2. Warriors - 50.0% (-7.4)
3. Raptors - 37.3% (-4.5)
4. Rockets - 23.8% (+11.2)
5. Trail Blazers - 15.4% (+6.4)
6. Celtics - 6.3% (+1.1)
7. Nuggets - 4.2% (-0.9)
8. 76ers - 2.9% (-0.4)
9. Thunder - 2.5% (-4.7)
10. Spurs - 2.1% (+0.3)
11. Jazz - 1.8% (-4.9)
12. Magic - 0.4% (+0.1)
13. Pacers - 0.33% (-0.97)
14. Clippers - 0.31% (+0.12)
15. Nets - 0.2% (+0.03)
16. Pistons - 0.03% (-0.13)

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

1. Bucks - 30.2% (+4.1)
2. Warriors - 29.7% (-5.7)
3. Raptors - 19.5% (-2.0)
4. Rockets - 10.9% (+5.4)
5. Trail Blazers - 4.9% (+2.0)
6. Celtics - 1.6% (+0.3)
7. Nuggets - 0.9% (-0.3)
8. Thunder - 0.7% (-1.6)
9. Jazz - 0.6% (-1.9)
10. 76ers - 0.5% (-0.1)
11. Spurs - 0.4% (+0.1)
12. Pacers - 0.05% (-0.15)
13. Clippers - 0.034% (+0.011)
14. Magic - 0.031% (+0.006)
15. Nets - 0.013% (+0.002)
16. Pistons - 0.0002% (-0.0128)

3 of the teams that are up 2-0 saw their odds rise quite a bit, while the Celtics are still stuck with the Bucks in the next round, so even winning this round doesn't help them that much.

NBA Playoff Odds - 2019

The NBA playoffs start in a few hours, so I've broken down all of the possible scenarios to determine which teams have the best chance of winning it all this year. Because playoff experience is a big factor in playoff success, I adjusted each team's rating based on past playoff minutes played by its roster and how much those players contributed to the team's overall production. Here are my odds of each team progressing through each round, as well as my picks for the full playoffs:

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Warriors - 94.7 %
2. Bucks - 94.3%
3. Raptors - 92.6%
4. 76ers - 75.4%
5. Celtics - 65.2%
6. Nuggets - 59.7%
7. Rockets - 59.0%
8. Trail Blazers - 53.3%
9. Thunder - 46.7%
10. Jazz - 41.0%
11. Spurs - 40.3%
12. Pacers - 34.8%
13. Nets - 24.6%
14. Magic - 7.4%
15. Pistons - 5.7%
16. Clippers - 5.3%

The Eastern Conference First Round is not nearly as good as that of the West. Other than the Warriors-Clippers series, anything could happen.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

1. Raptors - 80.1%
2. Bucks - 76.8%
3. Warriors - 68.9%
4. Trail Blazers - 33.1%
5. Thunder - 28.7%
6. Nuggets - 25.6%
7. Rockets - 19.2%
8. Celtics - 16.2%
9. 76ers - 15.2%
10. Spurs - 12.6%
11. Jazz - 11.2%
12. Pacers - 5.7%
13. Magic - 2.7%
14. Nets - 2.0%
15. Pistons - 1.4%
16. Clippers - 0.8%

The Warriors odds are a little lower here because the next two best teams in the West (the Rockets and Jazz) are lined up to face them in the second round.

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 57.4%
2. Bucks - 47.9%
3. Raptors - 41.8%
4. Rockets - 12.6%
5. Trail Blazers - 9.0%
6. Thunder - 7.2%
7. Jazz - 6.7%
8. Celtics - 5.2%
9. Nuggets - 5.1%
10. 76ers - 3.3%
11. Spurs - 1.8%
12. Pacers - 1.3%
13. Magic - 0.3%
14. Clippers - 0.19%
15. Nets - 0.17%
16. Pistons - 0.16%

If the Warriors make it through the second round, they are almost definitely going to make the Finals again, while the Eastern Conference is pretty much a toss-up between the top 2 seeds.

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 35.4%
2. Bucks - 26.1%
3. Raptors - 21.5%
4. Rockets - 5.5%
5. Trail Blazers - 2.9%
6. Jazz - 2.5%
7. Thunder - 2.3%
8. Celtics - 1.3%
9. Nuggets - 1.2%
10. 76ers - 0.6%
11. Spurs - 0.3%
12. Pacers - 0.2%
13. Magic - 0.025%
14. Clippers - 0.023%
15. Pistons - 0.013%
16. Nets - 0.011%

This is really a 3-team race, with the defending champs as the favorite. There are several other teams that should not be counted out, but the bottom 6 or 7 have virtually no chance.

My Picks

First Round

(1) Bucks over (8) Pistons in 4
(2) Raptors over (7) Magic in 4
(3) 76ers over (6) Nets in 7
(4) Celtics over (5) Pacers in 7
(1) Warriors over (8) Clippers in 4
(7) Spurs over (2) Nuggets in 7
(6) Thunder over (3) Trail Blazers in 7
(5) Jazz over (4) Rockets in 7

Second Round

(1) Bucks over (4) Celtics in 6
(2) Raptors over (3) 76ers in 6
(1) Warriors over (5) Jazz in 7
(6) Thunder over (7) Spurs in 7

Conference Finals

(2) Raptors over (1) Bucks in 7
(1) Warriors over (6) Thunder in 6

NBA Finals

(1) Warriors over (2) Raptors in 5

The Raptors will have home court advantage over the Warriors, but they will be no match for the defending champs, who will take home their 4th title in 5 years.

NBA Predictions - 10 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

Indiana at Atlanta - Pacers by 5
Miami at Brooklyn - Nets by 1.5
Orlando at Charlotte - Hornets by 0.5
Detroit at New York - Pistons by 6
Chicago at Philadelphia - 76ers by 12
Golden State at Memphis - Warriors by 6.5
Oklahoma City at Milwaukee - Bucks by 6.5
Dallas at San Antonio - Spurs by 5.5
Minnesota at Denver - Nuggets by 7.5
Utah at LA Clippers - Jazz by 2.5
Sacramento at Portland - Trail Blazers by 7.5

Results

NBA: 9-2 (.818) 794-425 overall (.651)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 72-86 overall (.456)

NBA Predictions - 9 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Charlotte at Cleveland - Hornets by 5
Memphis at Detroit - Pistons by 4.5
Boston at Washington - Celtics by 4
Philadelphia at Miami - 76ers by 0.5
New York at Chicago - Bulls by 3.5
Toronto at Minnesota - Raptors by 4
Golden State at New Orleans - Warriors by 5.5
Phoenix at Dallas - Mavericks by 9
Denver at Utah - Jazz by 4
Houston at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 0.5
Portland at LA Lakers - Trail Blazers by 4

Results

NBA: 7-7 (.500) 785-423 overall (.650)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 70-85 overall (.452)
NCAA: 1-0 (1.000) 48-19 overall (.716)