College Football Preseason Rankings

In two weeks, football will be back, so it is time for my annual college football preview. As usual, I have taken each team's final rating from last season, adjusted it for all roster changes, and used that to determine each team's preliminary season rating. I then analyzed each team's schedule in order to determine strength of schedule and projected final record. Here are my first rankings of the 2014 season:

				Record		Proj		SOS
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Curr	Overall
1	2	Oregon	-38.679			11	2		15
2	3	Baylor	-36.418			12	0		73
3	1	Florida State	-35.893			12	1		79
4	9	Auburn	-35.283			11	1		22
5	11	UCLA	-34.821			11	2		1
6	23	Michigan State	-32.12			11	2		51
7	4	Alabama	-31.625			12	1		53
8	5	Stanford	-31.557			9	3		2
9	6	Arizona State	-29.341			10	2		9
10	33	North Carolina	-27.785			11	2		41
11	43	Iowa	-26.031			11	2		65
12	41	Houston	-24.819			11	1		101
13	40	Washington State	-24.526			8	4		8
14	29	Mississippi State	-23.961			10	2		80
15	15	South Carolina	-23.475			10	3		32
16	17	USC	-23.421			8	4		11
17	25	Brigham Young	-21.821			10	2		44
18	30	Miami (FL)	-20.726			9	3		19
19	10	Ohio State	-20.549			9	3		27
20	18	Georgia	-20.506			9	3		37
21	69	Maryland	-20.48			9	3		25
22	26	Utah	-20.056			6	6		7
23	42	Bowling Green	-18.755			12	1		115
24	32	Oregon State	-18.399			7	5		12
25	35	Texas	-17.318			8	4		20
26	31	Kansas State	-16.339			8	4		35
27	28	Ole Miss	-15.511			8	4		17
28	54	Tennessee	-14.609			8	4		28
29	39	Boise State	-14.58			10	3		59
30	37	Duke	-14.191			8	4		66
31	8	Missouri	-13.969			9	3		60
32	14	Wisconsin	-13.389			9	3		58
33	72	Louisiana-Lafayette	-13.22			10	2		117
34	13	Oklahoma State	-13.1			7	5		23
35	38	Virginia Tech	-12.636			8	4		57
36	45	Marshall	-10.98			12	1		128
37	51	Navy	-10.844			10	2		87
38	55	TCU	-10.675			8	4		46
39	7	Washington	-10.576			7	6		21
40	52	Pittsburgh	-10.281			7	5		36
41	24	Louisville	-9.4603			8	4		84
42	53	Nebraska	-9.0258			7	5		33
43	63	Penn State	-8.9325			7	5		45
44	93	Memphis	-8.8038			8	4		76
45	107	Army	-8.6699			9	3		95
46	86	Virginia	-8.3483			4	8		5
47	49	East Carolina	-8.0588			8	4		77
48	64	Syracuse	-7.9426			8	4		67
49	20	Georgia Tech	-7.9247			6	6		30
50	44	Texas Tech	-7.3359			7	5		39
51	27	Utah State	-7.2728			9	4		93
52	60	Minnesota	-7.1439			7	5		48
53	46	Michigan	-6.8343			6	6		34
54	21	Oklahoma	-6.7044			6	6		38
55	47	Florida	-6.6786			7	5		47
56	82	Arkansas	-5.926			5	7		24
57	105	Connecticut	-5.54			7	5		72
58	12	Clemson	-5.318			7	5		61
59	67	Northwestern	-5.2868			7	5		55
60	108	Akron	-4.7878			8	4		108
61	59	Cincinnati	-3.5719			6	6		62
62	85	Nevada	-3.2731			8	5		74
63	56	Northern Illinois	-2.9683			10	3		118
64	91	Iowa State	-2.8011			5	7		26
65	22	Texas A&M	-2.2577			6	6		29
66	34	UCF	-1.6331			6	6		75
67	94	Rutgers	-1.6304			4	8		13
68	66	Colorado State	-1.578			8	4		112
69	79	Colorado	-1.0588			4	8		10
70	68	Western Kentucky	-0.4726			7	5		88
71	19	Arizona	0.16451			4	8		6
72	74	South Alabama	0.16593			7	5		89
73	75	Florida Atlantic	0.50266			8	4		105
74	111	Central Michigan	1.17009			9	3		124
75	50	Fresno State	1.43451			6	6		78
76	97	Temple	2.46066			5	7		64
77	112	Purdue	2.501			5	7		63
78	99	California	2.69805			2	10		3
79	80	UTSA	3.15439			7	6		97
80	78	Tulane	3.21642			5	7		52
81	110	New Mexico	3.91878			6	6		94
82	57	Indiana	4.814			3	9		16
83	36	Notre Dame	4.83516			2	10		4
84	88	West Virginia	4.91057			3	9		14
85	106	Texas State	5.31239			9	3		127
86	101	Kent State	5.91744			5	7		83
87	16	LSU	6.52336			4	8		42
88	65	Ball State	7.91355			6	6		90
89	81	Middle Tennessee	8.01945			6	6		109
90	48	Vanderbilt	8.10352			4	8		50
91	83	Kentucky	8.73604			4	8		54
92	77	San Jose State	8.97394			4	8		70
93	92	San Diego State	9.99748			5	7		81
94	113	Louisiana Tech	10.1942			6	6		104
95	114	Air Force	10.2012			4	8		86
96	70	Toledo	10.2141			5	7		91
97	62	Arkansas State	11.2378			6	6		107
98	100	Hawaii	11.8799			4	9		85
99	71	Rice	11.9024			6	6		106
100	87	Troy	12.0606			7	5		121
101	90	North Carolina State	12.9032			5	7		82
102	84	Illinois	13.6395			2	10		31
103	109	South Florida	14.6878			3	9		71
104	58	North Texas	14.8962			6	6		125
105	89	UNLV	15.0719			3	10		69
106	76	Buffalo	15.5466			5	7		100
107	98	Louisiana-Monroe	15.9459			5	7		119
108		Appalachian State	16.1273			6	6		126
109	104	Kansas	18.9447			1	11		18
110	118	UTEP	19.014			4	8		113
111		Georgia Southern	19.273			4	8		120
112		Old Dominion	19.9359			4	8		116
113	73	Wake Forest	22.2984			2	10		49
114	116	Western Michigan	22.4822			3	9		111
115	119	Massachusetts	22.5638			3	9		99
116	125	Florida International	22.6064			3	9		114
117	123	Miami (OH)	22.6786			3	9		103
118	102	Wyoming	22.8144			1	11		43
119	124	Eastern Michigan	22.9376			2	10		92
120	95	Southern Methodist	23.1744			1	11		40
121	61	Boston College	25.3535			1	11		56
122	117	Georgia State	29.4433			2	10		110
123	120	Idaho	29.8678			2	10		123
124	96	Ohio	30.4982			2	10		102
125	103	Tulsa	31.2688			1	11		68
126	115	UAB	31.9066			2	10		98
127	122	Southern Miss	34.6062			1	11		96
128	121	New Mexico State	35.192			1	11		122

As usual, the Pac 12 is dominating the Strength of Schedule rankings, due to a 9-game conference schedule and a large number of quality teams, a combination no other conference can claim. For that reason, the conference has 4 of the top 10 teams and 8 of the top 25, including the #1 overall team, Oregon, who is projected to lose twice, with a schedule that includes Michigan State, Stanford, and UCLA, plus a potential rematch with UCLA in the Pac 12 title game, which would mean 4 games against the top 8 teams. If any Pac 12 team finishes undefeated, they should be the automatic top seed in the first college football playoff.

The only team projected to finish undefeated is Baylor, the class of the Big 12, which is returning a large portion of a team that finished 11-2 last season, with both losses to teams in the top 11. They will be helped along this season by a weak schedule, ranked in the bottom half of the nation, including only one opponent in my preseason top 25, #25 Texas. The Bears must finish undefeated to have a shot at the playoffs.

Last year's champions, the Florida State Seminoles, look to be in the running again this year, with the bulk of their lineup returning, a schedule that includes a load of cupcakes, and the confidence and momentum that comes from winning a championship decisively. Their only real test in the regular season will be a trip to Miami in mid-November, and they will also have to navigate the ACC title game, a hurdle Baylor will not have to face.

This year's SEC title should once again come down to the result of the Iron Bowl, where Auburn will be visiting Alabama in the rematch of one of the most exciting finishes in college football history. The Tigers look like the better team right now, but the Crimson Tide will have home field advantage in the rivalry game, so they are my pick to take the 4th and final spot in the playoff.

I will update my rankings weekly throughout the season, usually on the day after the week's final game has been played, and I will also post my predictions for each week's games before the week's slate of games begins. Last season I correctly predicted the winner in 77.5% of college football games, up 2% from the previous season, and I hope to top that number this season.

NBA Season Review and Finals Prediction

In the preseason, I predicted each team's regular season record and how far each would advance in the playoffs in a post you can see here. Just as with my NFL preview, I correctly predicted the two teams that would eventually meet in the championship before the season began. I also had quite a bit of success picking playoff teams and overall records, and some of the results are below:

Eastern Conference Playoff Teams

I correctly predicted 7 of the 8 teams that would make the playoffs in the East, including both Toronto and Washington, who had missed the playoffs the year before. I correctly predicted that Boston and Milwaukee would miss the playoffs after qualifying the season before, but incorrectly picked New York to make the playoffs rather than Charlotte.

Western Conference Playoff Teams

I also picked 7 of the 8 Western Conference playoff teams correctly, including Portland taking the place of the LA Lakers, which was not a very popular pick by the experts. My lone miss in the West was Dallas making the playoffs instead of the Nuggets, who fell apart in the middle of the season, while Dallas sneaked in during the final week of the season.

Eastern Conference Surprise

The Charlotte Bobcats won 43 games this season, 22 more than the season before, and 15 more than my original prediction. Al Jefferson had his best season since the lockout-shortened season in 2009, back when he was still in Minnesota, and his improvement was the biggest reason that Charlotte made the playoffs in their final season as the Bobcats.

Eastern Conference Disappointment

The Brooklyn Nets made the playoffs and even advanced through the first round, but bigger things were expected of a team that bought an All-Star-loaded roster in the offseason, racking up the biggest payroll in the league in the process. The roster was full of disappointments, with Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Andrei Kirilenko, Joe Johnson, and Deron Williams each having their worst seasons in over a decade and Brook Lopez spending most of the season injured.

Eastern Conference Perfect Pick

In the preseason I picked the Indiana Pacers to finish with a record of 56-26, an improvement of 7 games over last season, and they did exactly that. They actually did a little better in the postseason than I had picked, making it to the Conference Finals before losing, rather than losing in the second round, as I thought before the season.

Western Conference Surprise

The Phoenix Suns won 48 games, tying the record for most wins without making the playoffs, and they weren't eliminated from contention until the final week of the season, which was much different than my preseason prediction, which had them winning only 17 games and being eliminated by the All-Star break. It certainly helps when you have 3 of the top 10 vote-getters for Most Improved Player on the roster, as well as the runner-up for Coach of the Year on the bench.

Western Conference Disappointment

Denver did not perform well under rookie head coach Brian Shaw, much like Brooklyn under Jason Kidd. Andre Miller's blowup at the coach during their long mid-season losing streak was the lowlight, other than the fact that they missed the playoffs for the first time in 11 years, right after letting George Karl go as coach. Ty Lawson continues to improve, but when journeyman Randy Foye is your second-best player, you know you have problems.

Western Conference Perfect Pick

I predicted that the LA Clippers would win 59 games and take the #2 seed in the Western Conference this season, and I was only slightly off in that pick. The ended up with 57 wins and a #3 seed, but they still lost in the second round, just as I had picked. They are making steady improvement, and with a likely change of ownership coming this summer, they could become an even more enticing destination for free agents.

NBA Finals Prediction

In the preseason, I picked the Miami Heat to score a repeat victory over the San Antonio Spurs in the Finals. I am slightly modifying that prediction now, with the games getting ready to start tomorrow. My official prediction for this season's NBA champion is:

Spurs over Heat in 5 games.

The Spurs will win both home games to open the series, after which Miami will take game 3 at their arena, but San Antonio will close it out with a road win in game 4 and will finish off the series at home in game 5, the first time in 30 years that the format will be changed to allow the team with the better record to play game 5 at home. The Finals MVP voting will be close for the first time in years, with Tim Duncan nabbing his 4th postseason MVP award over Tony Parker.