Predictions - 6 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Clippers at Heat - Heat by 12
Pacers at Nets - Pacers by 2
76ers at Knicks - Knicks by 3
Magic at Celtics - Celtics by 3

College Basketball

(1) Ohio State at (20) Minnesota - Ohio State by 8
Rutgers at (8) Notre Dame - Notre Dame by 14
Michigan State at (18) Wisconsin - Wisconsin by 12
Florida State at North Carolina - North Carolina by 12

Super Bowl

Packers vs. Steelers - Packers by 2

NBA Player of the Day

Pau Gasol - LAL - 34 pts, 10 reb, 3 ast, 13-17 FG, 8-9 FT
Before the game, Kobe asked Pau to be more selfish with the ball, and the result was a return of old Pau, the early-season MVP candidate who had the Lakers rolling. The Lakers needed a big night from their big man to beat a very good New Orleans team on the road, and the game was the first time in nearly two years that both Kobe and Gasol scored over 30 points in the same game.

Prediction Results - 5 Feb

NBA: 5/9 (.556) 408/569 overall (.717)
College Basketball: 19/23 (.826) 385/475 overall (.811)
Upsets: 2/4 (.500) 101/165 overall (.612)

NBA MVP Rankings - 2008-2009

2009 was an exciting season for the NBA. LeBron James, who had been the league's best player for quite a while, won his first MVP award as he led the Cavaliers to the league's best record. Three teams finished with at least 60 wins, and one of those, the Los Angeles Lakers, ended up taking home the championship, with Kobe Bryant winning his first NBA Finals MVP award. I have re-ranked the contenders for each of the major awards that year statistically, and the following is where I would have ranked each one, with actual voting results in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James - CLE - 28.4 pts, 7.6 reb, 7.2 ast (1)

Not much of a question here. He was the league's best player. His team had the league's best record. He was name Eastern Conference Player of the Month 4 times. He was named to the All-NBA First Team and All-Defensive First Team. He was 2nd in the NBA in scoring. The only knock on LeBron's season is that Cleveland failed to win the championship, but this award is for the regular season only.

2. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 26.8 pts, 5.2 reb, 4.9 ast (2)

Kobe's stats were down across the board from his MVP season, but I'm pretty sure you won't hear him complaining that he won the Finals MVP rather than the regular season version. His team won the Western Conference by 11 games in the regular season, then went 16-7 in the playoffs as Kobe earned his 4th ring.

3. Pau Gasol - LAL - 18.9 pts, 9.6 reb, 3.5 ast (NR)

If you want to know why the Lakers were able to improve so quickly and win the title despite Kobe having a decrease in production, look no further than the Lakers' new big man. Pau was the piece the Lakers had been missing since Shaq left, and while he took a small statistical hit when he moved to LA, the title makes it all worth it.

4. Dwight Howard - ORL - 20.6 pts, 13.8 reb, 2.9 blk (4)

Howard led the league in rebounding and blocked shots while winning the Defensive Player of the Years award for the first time, then guided Orlando through upsets of Boston and Cleveland in the playoffs before losing to the Lakers in the Finals.

5. Brandon Roy - POR - 22.6 pts, 4.7 reb, 5.1 ast (9)

Roy had his best overall season as he led Portland to a tie for the second-best record in the West and a trip to the playoffs. The former Rookie of the Year set career highs that are still standing in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage and was named to the All-NBA Second Team.

6. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 30.2 pts, 5.0 reb, 7.5 ast (3)

Wade led the league in scoring and was probably the only reason that Miami made the playoffs, but they were barely above .500 for the season and lost in the first round of the playoffs. It was the first time in three years that Wade had not missed significant time to injuries, and he took advantage, posting his best season to date.

7. Chris Paul - NOH - 22.8 pts, 11.0 ast, 2.8 stl (5)

Paul was another example of a great player on an average team, leading the league in both assists and steals for the second straight year while averaging over 20 points as well. It was also the only time that Paul had shot over 50% for a full season, and it remains the best season of his career.

8. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 25.9 pts, 8.4 reb, 2.4 ast (10)

Dirk had a better year statistically that he did in 2007, when he won the MVP, but the Mavericks were only good enough to grab the sixth seed in the Western Conference playoffs, although they were able to upset San Antonio in the first round. It was his 9th straight season averaging over 20 points per game, and he isn't through yet.

9. Tim Duncan - SAS - 19.3 pts, 10.7 reb, 3.5 ast (11)

Duncan averaged under 20 points per game, just the 3rd time that had happened, and the Spurs ended up ranked 3rd in the West going into the playoffs, where they were upset by the Mavericks in the first round. Even though he wasn't at his peak anymore, he was still the face of the Spurs and their best player.

10. Tony Parker - SAS - 22.0 pts, 3.1 reb, 6.9 ast (8)

This appeared to be the year that the Spurs passed the torch from Duncan to Parker, who set career highs in scoring and assists as he led San Antonio to the playoffs yet again. Injuries have prevented him from duplicating his performance from that season, but he's young enough that he may still have a chance to regain it.

Not quite there:

Carmelo Anthony

Rookie of the Year

1. Derrick Rose - CHI - 16.8 pts, 3.9 reb, 6.3 ast (1)

Rose's stellar rookie year was a sign of things to come in Chicago. In just his first year, he was able to lead the Bulls back to the playoffs and very deservingly won the Rookie of the Year award against a pretty good class of contenders. As good as he was then, he is that much better today.

2. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 15.3 pts, 4.9 reb, 5.3 ast (4)

I can't quite figure out why Westbrook was voted 4th in the Rookie of the Year race after a season in which he showed that he could do it all. Besides his very solid numbers in scoring, rebounds, and assists, he averaged over a steal per game and didn't miss a single game, a streak that is still intact today.

3. O.J. Mayo - MEM - 18.5 pts, 3.8 reb, 3.2 ast (2)

Mayo may have been the highest scoring rookie, but Rose and Westbrook both had better assist and rebound numbers. Mayo has not been able to return to the form of his rookie year, with significant drops in every statistical category each season.

4. Eric Gordon - LAC - 16.1 pts, 2.6 reb, 2.8 ast (5)

Gordon may not be in the potential MVP class of Rose and Westbrook yet, but at least he hasn't fallen down where Mayo has. The current leading scorer for Los Angeles played his way into the starting lineup within his first month with the team, and he's stayed there ever since.

5. Brook Lopez - NJN - 13.0 pts, 8.1 reb, 1.8 blk (3)

Lopez immediately showed that he was ready to be an NBA big man with a very strong rookie year for the Nets. He shot over 53% for the season and has not missed a single game yet in his career. His career, like most on this list, continues to show a lot of promise.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Jason Terry - DAL - 19.6 pts, 2.4 reb, 3.4 ast (1)

Terry had his best scoring season since his sophomore campaign with the Atlanta Hawks nearly a decade earlier and gave Dallas the firepower it needed off the bench. He also shot 88% from the free throw line, very close to his career high set 6 years before.

2. Nate Robinson - NYK - 17.2 pts, 3.9 reb, 4.1 ast (3)

The 5-foot, 9-inch Robinson showed that he was more than just someone to entertain at the All-Star Dunk Contest with his best season by far. He set career highs in every category, all of which are still standing, and ensured that he would be around the league for many more seasons.

3. J.R. Smith - DEN - 15.2 pts, 3.7 reb, 2.8 ast (2)

The long-range marksman got the most consistent playing time of his career and rewarded the Nuggets by having his best season up to that point. He may not score big every night, but when he's hot, no one in the league can stop him.

4. Lamar Odom - LAL - 11.3 pts, 8.2 reb, 2.6 ast (4)

Odom became a bench player for the first time in his career, but his production per minute didn't change at all. Odom's move to the bench opened up space for Pau Gasol on the front line, a move that proved to be very important for the Lakers in their championship run.

5. Ramon Sessions - MIL - 12.4 pts, 3.4 reb, 5.7 ast (NR)

In Sessions' first full NBA season, he showed a lot of promise after a great stint with the Bucks after being called up from the D-League the previous season. He may not have great shooting range, but his assist to turnover ratio was very close to 3 while guiding the team off the bench.

Most Improved Player

1. Nene - DEN - +9.3 pts, +2.4 reb, +0.5 ast (5)

My guess is that Nene didn't win this award because many saw him as a better candidate for the Comeback Player of the Year Award, which no longer exists. After missing 2 of the 3 previous seasons due to a torn ACL and testicular cancer, his strong resurgence in 2009 deserves recognition.

2. Kevin Durant - OKC - +5.0 pts, +2.1 reb, +0.4 ast (3)

In the team's first year in Oklahoma City, Durant went from the runaway Rookie of the Year winner to superstar in just his second year. He finished 6th in the league in scoring before becoming the league scoring leader in his third year, a very tough jump to make when you're already a very good player.

3. Marquis Daniels - IND - +5.4 pts, +1.7 reb, +0.2 ast (NR)

Daniels took over as a starter in Indiana when Mike Dunleavy went down with an injury, and he had the best season of his career. It wasn't enough to convince the Pacers to keep him after the season, but he was able to land a spot on Boston's bench the next year, where he has been a solid role player.

4. Paul Millsap - UTA - +5.4 pts, +3.0 reb, +0.8 ast (4)

Millsap spent a lot of time starting in place of an injured Carlos Boozer, and looked a lot like a previous Jazz power forward from Louisiana Tech. His performance made Boozer expendable, and now that he is a full-time starter, he's living up to the high expectations.

5. Jeff Green - OKC - +6.0 pts, +2.0 reb, +0.5 ast (25)

Green's improvement wasn't noticed as much as Durant's, but he also proved that the was an important piece of Oklahoma City's future along with rookie Russell Westbrook. It was Green's best season so far, but he hasn't dropped very far in the two seasons since.

NBA Player of the Day

Elton Brand - PHI - 33 pts, 16 reb, 2 stl, 2 blk, 14-23 FG, 5-5 FT

This is not a throwback like everything else in this post, even if it looks like it. Elton Brand actually scored over 30 points for the first time in over 3 years as he led the 76ers to an upset of the Knicks last night. The 76ers used a 15-0 run in the 4th quarter to eke out the victory right at the end.

Predictions - 5 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Hawks at Wizards - Hawks by 5
Mavericks at Bobcats - Mavs by 4
Trail Blazers at Cavaliers - Blazers by 7
Lakers at Hornets - Hornets by 1
Grizzlies at Rockets - Rockets by 3
Pistons at Bucks - Bucks by 6
Nuggets at Timberwolves - Nuggets by 5
Thunder at Jazz - Jazz by 1
Bulls at Warriors - Bulls by 6

College Basketball

(2) Kansas at Nebraska - Kansas by 8
Texas Tech at (3) Texas - Texas by 27
Cincinnati at (4) Pittsburgh - Pitt by 13
North Carolina State at (5) Duke - Duke by 24
TCU at (6) San Diego State - San Diego State by 23
(7) Connecticut at Seton Hall - UConn by 1
UNLV at (9) BYU - BYU by 11
(11) Kentucky at (23) Florida - Kentucky by 1
West Virginia at (12) Villanova - Nova by 5
DePaul at (13) Louisville - Louisville by 26
Providence at (14) Georgetown - Georgetown by 16
Colorado at (15) Missouri - Missouri by 8
Baylor at (16) Texas A&M - Texas A&M by 8
(17) Syracuse at South Florida - Syracuse by 6
(19) Washington at Oregon - Washington by 9
Boise State at (21) Utah State - Utah State by 12
(22) Arizona at California - Arizona by 4
(24) Illinois at Northwestern - Northwestern by 1
South Carolina at (24) Vanderbilt - Vandy by 18
Wake Forest at Maryland - Maryland by 26
Duquesne at Saint Bonaventure - Duquesne by 9
Belmont at North Florida - Belmont by 13
Loyola Marymount at Saint Mary's - Saint Mary's by 22

Prediction Results - 4 Feb

NBA: 9/12 (.750) 403/560 overall (.720)
Upsets: 2/3 (.667) 99/161 overall (.615)

NBA MVP Rankings - 4 Feb

Both LeBron James and Kevin Durant had huge scoring explosions this week, and with both teams winning this week, they were the two biggest movers in the MVP race. Dirk Nowitzki is also back, and the Mavericks are back on a winning roll, so he should be able to continue moving back up the rankings over the next several weeks. Here are this week's rankings, with last week's ranking in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James - MIA - 26.6 pts, 7.2 reb, 7.3 ast (1)

LeBron just finished off a week in which the Heat won four straight in spectacular fashion, by becoming the first player this season to score 50 points, and he did it against the Orlando Magic and Defensive Player of the Year candidate Dwight Howard. Just when you start to question whether he is still the league's best player, he goes out and proves it.

2. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 25.4 pts, 6.7 reb, 4.1 ast (2)

D-Wade may not be as good as LeBron (nobody is), but he has scored at least 30 points in 10 of his past 15 games for Miami. It's very rare that the two best players in the league are on the same team outside of the All-Star Game, but Miami has been able to make that claim for several weeks now.

3. Derrick Rose - CHI - 24.6 pts, 4.6 reb, 8.2 ast (3)

Rose now says that his ulcer troubles are behind him, and he proved it on Wednesday, scoring 32 points while leading to the Bulls to a win over the Clippers at the Staples Center, a feat no team had accomplished in a month. He also has Chicago on a 6-game winning streak and just one-half game behind Miami for the #2 spot in the East.

4. Kevin Durant - OKC - 29.3 pts, 6.8 reb, 2.8 ast (6)

Durant has now scored over 40 points in 3 of the last 4 games for Oklahoma City, and in the game he failed to reach that milestone, he managed only a measly 33. His scoring average is inching closer to 30 each time he steps on the court, and the Thunder have now taken control of the Northwest Division.

5. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 25.4 pts, 5.1 reb, 5.0 ast (5)

It was bound to happen sooner or later. Kobe is now officially the best player on the Lakers this season. Before last night's clunker against the Spurs, Bryant was averaging 37 points per game for the week, which makes up for the fact that his team has now lost 3 of 4 again.

6. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 22.4 pts, 5.1 reb, 8.5 ast (7)

Kevin Durant was not named Player of the Day both times he scored over 40 points this week, due to the fact that in one of those games his teammate, Westbrook, put up an even more impressive line with 35 points, 13 rebounds, and 13 assists. While the rest of his week was not nearly as impressive, the strength of that performance alone nudged him up a spot.

7. Pau Gasol - LAL - 18.4 pts, 10.5 reb, 1.9 blk (4)

As Pau goes, so go the Lakers. When the big man failed to reach a double-double this week, the Lakers lost all 3. In the game that he put up 26 points and 16 rebounds, the Lakers pulled off a win against Houston. Kobe will continue to score, win or lose, but for the Lakers to win the title, Pau has to be the driving force.

8. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 23.2 pts, 6.9 reb, 2.5 ast (9)

Last week I mentioned that Dirk's shooting percentage had not returned to where it was pre-injury, and that it was the main reason the Mavs were not winning consistently. That now appears to be a thing of the past, as Dirk shot 65.7% from the field this week as Dallas extended its new winning streak to 6.

9. Dwight Howard - ORL - 22.3 pts, 13.6 reb, 2.2 blk (8)

Howard averaged over 25 points and 16 rebounds per game this week, including 40 points against Chicago and a 20-20 game against Cleveland, but he slips a spot this week due to the fact that Orlando only won one game this week, and that game was against a team with one win in the past 2 months.

10. Amare Stoudemire - NYK - 26.1 pts, 8.7 reb, 2.2 blk (10)

Amare is still playing well despite a knee injury that has been slowing him down. The only place on the stat sheet that has showed a noticeable drop since he started limping is rebounds, where he is averaging only 6 per game over the past 10 days.

Closing in:

Al Horford, Carlos Boozer

Rookie of the Year

1. Blake Griffin - LAC - 23.0 pts, 12.7 reb, 3.6 ast (1)

Griffin's accomplishments up to this point in his rookie year were rewarded this week with a reserve spot on the All-Star team, a first for a rookie since 2003, when Yao was voted in by the fans. He's the first rookie selected by the coaches since Tim Duncan in 1998, which is very good company to be in.

2. John Wall - WAS - 14.7 pts, 4.1 reb, 9.3 ast (2)

Wall finally had a game in which both his scoring and assist numbers were solid, putting up 17 and 10 against Dallas last week, then followed it up with 4 points and 7 assists in a loss at New Orleans the next night. He's very solidly entrenched in this #2 spot, but there is no chance he will every make it to #1.

3. Landry Field - NYK - 10.0 pts, 7.2 reb, 1.9 ast (3)

After last week's big game against Miami, Fields did nothing this week to follow it up. His scoring totals slipped a little lower each day, and he is very close to dropping behind Cousins on this list.

4. DeMarcus Cousins - SAC - 13.7 pts, 7.7 reb, 1.8 ast (4)

Cousins was the key player in Sacramento's upsets of the Lakers and Hornets this week, averaging 26 points and 11 rebounds in the two wins. He also posted 20 points in the Kings' loss to Boston on Monday, but his rebounding numbers were slightly down and the Kings lost a close one.

5. Evan Turner - PHI - 7.4 pts, 4.5 reb, 2.0 ast (5)

Turner's biggest scoring output of the week was only 11 points, but due to the lack of any really good rookies this year, he retains his spot in the top 5. Any other year, Turner would not even make the All-Rookie 2nd Team.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Jason Terry - DAL - 15.5 pts, 2.1 reb, 4.4 ast (2)

Terry won the head-to-head meeting of the top sixth man candidates this week, outscoring Crawford 18 to 11 while his Mavericks beat the Hawks by 11. He also handed out 11 assists in that game, the first time this year that he had eclipsed 10 assists in a game.

2. Jamal Crawford - ATL - 15.7 pts, 1.8 reb, 3.4 ast (1)

He may have lost the battle of top sixth men this week, but Crawford is still one of the best at coming off the bench in the league. Sadly, the loss to Dallas may have been his best game this week, and he can't afford to have many more weeks like this.

3. J.R. Smith - DEN - 11.8 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.0 ast (4)

Smith finally started scoring again this week, posting 23 against Philadelphia and 16 against Portland. His 3-point stroke seems to be missing still, as he only shot 3 for 9 from long range, a trend that started the night after he hit 8 of 14 from downtown against Miami.

4. Thaddeus Young - 11.7 pts, 5.1 reb, 1.1 ast (3)

Young had a very up-and-down week, starting with a down (9 points against Memphis), then peaking with 21 points against the Nuggets, before bottoming out on Tuesday against New Jersey, where he scored only 2 points.

5. Ramon Sessions - CLE - 11.3 pts, 2.7 reb, 4.8 ast (NR)

Sessions is currently starting for the Cavaliers, but only until Daniel Gibson returns from injury, and he is taking advantage of the extra playing time, as you can see from the 25 points he scored in Cleveland's 22nd straight loss on Tuesday.

Most Improved Player

1. Dorell Wright - GSW - +9.6 pts, +2.4 reb, +1.9 ast (1)

Wright continued to play very well for the Warriors this week, averaging nearly 18 points per game as Golden State won 2 of 3 games. Wright often gets overlooked because he plays for a bad team on the West Coast, but he is the most improved player in the league this year.

2. D.J. Augustin - CHA - +8.7 pts, +1.8 reb, +3.9 ast (2)

Augustin has been making this a real race over the past month, putting up two more 20-point games this week, including an awesome 27 points and 12 assists when his Bobcats beat Wright's Warriors last week.

3. Kevin Love - MIN - +7.4 pts, +4.6 reb, +0.2 ast (4)

The league's best big man won't be playing in the All-Star game this year unless David Stern names him as Yao Ming's injury replacement at center, although Pau Gasol is also in the running for that spot. He played his worst game of the season on Tuesday, finishing with just 10 points and 10 rebounds, but did enough to keep his double-double streak alive.

4. Nick Young - WAS - +8.7 pts, +1.4 reb, +0.7 ast (3)

Young continues to score big as Washington's first option, and the Wizards continue to lose on the road. You can't blame him for all of the Wizards' troubles, especially since they traded away their 3 All-Stars from a few years ago for next to nothing, but at least one road win would be nice.

5. Jrue Holiday - PHI - +6.1 pts, +1.4 reb, +2.9 ast (NR)

Holiday reentered this list due to his first career triple-double on Wednesday, when he finished with 11 points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds in the 76ers' win over New Jersey. The 10 rebounds may have been a bit of a fluke, but the scoring and assists were not.

NBA Player of the Day

LeBron James - MIA - 51 pts, 11 reb, 8 ast, 17-25 FG, 3-5 3P, 14-17 FT

LeBron made this an easy choice today, scoring the most points of any player all season, and by far the most of anyone last night (Monta Ellis was 2nd with 24). He started the night off strong, scoring 23 points in the first quarter and hitting his first 11 field goals. It was the 9th time LeBron has reached 50 in his career, and all 9 have come on the road.

Predictions - 4 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Trail Blazers at Pacers - Pacers by 2

Knicks at 76ers - 76ers by 4

Magic at Wizards - Magic by 8

Timberwolves at Raptors - Raptors by 3

Heat at Bobcats - Heat by 7

Clippers at Hawks - Hawks by 7

Nets at Pistons - Pistons by 4

Mavericks at Celtics - Celtics by 5

Cavaliers at Grizzlies - Grizzlies by 15

Thunder at Suns - Suns by 1

Spurs at Kings - Spurs by 9

Jazz at Nuggets - Nuggets by 6

Prediction Results - 3 Feb

NBA: 1/3 (.333) 394/548 overall (.719)

College Basketball: 5/6 (.833) 366/452 overall (.810)

Upsets: 0/2 (.000) 97/158 overall (.614)

NBA Regular Season and Playoff Predictions - 3 Feb

Starting with today's standings, I took each team's remaining schedule and added up it's chances of winning each of its remaining games, then used that to predict where each team would stack up at the end of the regular season. Assuming that there are no major injuries or trades, the teams should end up within 3 or 4 games of these predictions by the end of the regular season. Each team's current conference standing is in parentheses after its projected record.

Eastern Conference

1. Boston (61-21) (1)
2. Miami (60-22) (3)
3. Chicago (58-24) (2)
4. Orlando (53-29) (5)
5. Atlanta (49-33) (4)
6. New York (42-40) (6)
7. Philadelphia (40-42) (7)
8. Milwaukee (37-45) (10)

9. Indiana (36-46) (9)
10. Charlotte (34-48) (8)
11. Detroit (30-52) (11)
12. New Jersey (25-57) (12)
13. Toronto (24-58) (14)
14. Washington (24-58) (13)
15. Cleveland (14-68) (15)

There are 3 teams with a good chance at being the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but Boston's current lead in the standings gives them the inside edge. Orlando and Atlanta will almost definitely face off in the first round, with Orlando probably at home. Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Indiana, and Charlotte will be fighting for the final 2 playoff spots, and the 76ers are looking pretty safe for spot #7. Any one of the other 3 could take the last spot, but Milwaukee is the best of the 3 overall, though Charlotte has been hot lately and could sneak in.

Western Conference

1. San Antonio (64-18) (1)
2. LA Lakers (56-26) (2)
3. Dallas (54-28) (3)
4. Oklahoma City (51-31) (4)
5. New Orleans (51-31) (5)
6. Denver (49-33) (6)
7. Memphis (44-38) (9)
8. Utah (44-38) (7)

9. Portland (42-40) (8)
10. Houston (40-42) (11)
11. Phoenix (39-43) (10)
12. Golden State (34-48) (12)
13. LA Clippers (32-50) (13)
14. Sacramento (22-60) (14)
15. Minnesota (21-61) (15)

The Spurs have already wrapped up the #1 seed and most likely home court throughout the playoffs. Oklahoma City's win over New Orleans last night gave them the tiebreaker should the two teams end up tied at the end of the regular season, which would give them home court in their first round matchup. Denver will make the playoffs (assuming Carmelo is not traded for nothing), and could challenge for the 4th seed. Either Portland or Houston could pass the Jazz or Grizzlies for a spot in the playoffs, and the Suns have a very slim chance at making it in also, although it would be very surprising.

Playoffs

Close series are in italics.

First Round

Celtics over Bucks
Heat over 76ers
Bulls over Knicks
Magic over Hawks
Spurs over Jazz
Lakers over Grizzlies
Mavericks over Nuggets
Hornets over Thunder

Second Round

Celtics over Magic
Heat over Bulls
Spurs over Hornets
Lakers over Mavericks

Conference Finals

Heat over Celtics
Spurs over Lakers

Finals

Heat over Spurs

The Heat are my current favorite to win the title, but any of the top 4 seeds in the East and either of the top two seeds in the West have a realistic chance at the title, and the Mavericks could possible make the Finals, although I don't think they would win. The final 8 teams, in order of likelihood to win the championship, are:

Miami
San Antonio
Boston
Chicago
LA Lakers
Orlando
Dallas
New Orleans

NBA Player of the Day

Kevin Durant - 43 pts, 10 reb, 5 ast, 14-19 FG, 5-7 3P, 10-11 FT
Durant topped 40 points for the third time in the past 4 games as he led the Thunder to a very important win over the New Orleans Hornets. The win put Oklahoma City in 4th place in the West, just ahead of the Hornets, and gave them the season series, which will be the first tiebreaker if they end up tied at the end of the season.

Predictions - 3 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Heat at Magic - Magic by 1
Bucks at Warriors - Warriors by 1
Spurs at Lakers - Lakers by 2

College Basketball

Michigan at (1) Ohio State - Ohio State by 20
(8) Notre Dame at DePaul - Notre Dame by 13
(19) Washington at Oregon State - Washington by 16
(22) Arizona at Stanford - Arizona by 6
Belmont at Jacksonville - Belmont by 7
Pepperdine at Saint Mary's - Saint Mary's by 24

Prediction Results - 2 Feb

NBA: 8/11 (.727) 393/545 overall (.721)
College Basketball: 7/9 (.778) 361/446 overall (.809)
Upsets: 2/4 (.500) 97/156 overall (.622)

College Basketball Rankings - 2 Feb

We're now down to one undefeated team, the Ohio State Buckeyes, and they haven't been without their share of close calls. Only one team left the top 25 completely, but there was a lot of movement this week as upsets happened left and right, especially on Saturday. In all, 14 of last week's top 25 teams lost at least once this week, and two of the others avoided that fate by not playing. Here are the new rankings, with each team's name followed by this week's record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Kansas (2-0) (21-1) -22.85 (3)
2. Ohio State (1-0) (22-0) -22.49 (1)
3. Duke (1-1) (19-2) -21.12 (2)
4. Texas (3-0) (19-3) -20.84 (5)
5. Washington (0-1) (15-5) -19.91 (4)
6. Kentucky (1-1) (16-5) -18.84 (6)
7. Pittsburgh (1-0) (20-2) -18.61 (9)
8. BYU (1-1) (20-2) -18.13 (7)
9. San Diego State (1-1) (21-1) -17.83 (12)
10. North Carolina (3-0) (16-5) -17.15 (22)
11. Purdue (1-1) (18-5) -17.04 (10)
12. Wisconsin (1-1) (16-5) -16.74 (8)
13. Georgetown (3-0) (17-5) -16.44 (17)
14. Louisville (2-1) (17-5) -15.76 (21)
15. Illinois (1-1) (15-7) -15.74 (15)
16. Maryland (2-0) (14-7) -15.16 (24)
17. Arizona (2-0) (18-4) -15.13 (16)
18. West Virginia (1-1) (14-6) -15.04 (NR)
19. Belmont (2-0) (20-4) -14.96 (20)
20. Connecticut (0-1) (17-3) -14.67 (14)
21. Notre Dame (0-0) (17-4) -14.61 (23)
22. Vanderbilt (1-2) (15-6) -14.56 (11)
23. Saint Mary's (1-1) (18-4) -14.50 (19)
24. Missouri (0-1) (17-4) -14.03 (18)
25. Villanova (0-2) (17-4) -13.94 (13)

Dropping out:
UNLV (0-0) (16-5) -12.66 (25)

Ranked teams by conference:

Big East: 7
Big 10: 4
Big 12: 3
ACC: 3
Pac 10: 2
SEC: 2
MWC: 2
Atl Sun: 1
WCC: 1

Early Spring

North Carolina went 3-0 this week, which included a 20-point win over North Carolina State and a 32-point win at Boston College, who may have just played their way out of the tournament picture. This week they take on Florida State, the first team to take down Duke this year, and if they handle them the way they've handled their other recent opponents, they may have a chance at Duke next week.

West Virginia performed much better than expected this week, especially considering that their leading scorer has been suspended by the team. They nearly pulled out a win at heavy favorite Louisville, then knocked off the Cincinnati Bearcats on the road over the weekend. I guess that I proclaimed their demise a little too early.

Saint John's had an interesting week. First, they went to DC and got blown out by the resurgent Georgetown Hoyas, then they hosted Duke 4 days later and blew out the defending national champions. They were expected to lose big to the Hoyas, so it didn't hurt them that much, but the huge win over Duke has them very much in the discussion to be the Big East's 11th tournament team in March.

The Colorado Buffaloes nearly pulled off an upset victory at Baylor this week before coming home and totally dismantling Iowa State, who had been ranked around #50 all season long. Colorado hasn't been this good since Chauncey Billups left school over 13 years ago, and they may be looking to make the tournament in their final year as a member of the Big 12.

Maryland got two impressive conference road victories this week, beating Virginia and Georgia Tech by a combined 35 points on their home courts. Next up for the Terrapins is a huge game against Duke tonight, and I would not be one bit surprised to see the Blue Devils go down again.

Six More Weeks of Winter

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are just not as good as their ranking would suggest, and for proof, you only need to look at their loss to a struggling Purdue team this past weekend. Yes, the Gophers are missing their starting guards, but you don't get wins based on the players who should have played, and Minnesota is looking at a couple more big losses this week.

Richmond was looking like a conference contender until they played Xavier on Saturday. The 23-point blowout on their home court probably removed them from the Atlantic 10 title picture, but they still have a chance at an at-large berth, especially if they can beat Temple on the road in two weeks.

Vanderbilt was down all week, starting with a squeaker of a victory over the usually noncompetitive Mississippi State Bulldogs. They followed that up with a home loss to Arkansas, a team that hasn't been good in years, then lost in overtime to Florida last night. For a while I've thought the Commodores would have a chance to beat Kentucky this month, but if they don't rebound this week, I'm not so sure about that.

Duke's cold week is the result of one very bad game, the same game that put Saint John's among the week's hottest teams. The Blue Devils only have one win against a team currently ranked in my top 25, and they'll have to repeat that feat tonight against Maryland if they don't want to find themselves back out in the cold next week.

Villanova lost two games that they should have won this week, first against Providence, who is ranked #14 in the Big East, then at home against Georgetown. The Wildcats have now lost 3 of their last 4, and unless they can protect their home court this week against serious challenges from West Virginia and Marquette, they will fall out of my top 25.

NBA Player of the Day

LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - 40 pts, 11 reb, 2 ast, 3 stl, 16-23 FG, 8-9 FT
Aldridge seems to be making a very strong case for a spot on the All-Star team, setting a career-high in scoring against the best team in the NBA. Aldridge led the Blazers in points, rebounds, blocks, and steals in Portland's surprising upset victory over the top-ranked Spurs.

Predictions - 2 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Raptors at Hawks - Hawks by 10
Pacers at Cavaliers - Pacers by 7
76ers at Nets - 76ers by 3
Bobcats at Pistons - Pistons by 2
Mavericks at Knicks - Knicks by 1
Grizzlies at Timberwolves - Grizz by 3
Hornets at Thunder - Thunder by 1
Bucks at Suns - Suns by 2
Trail Blazers at Nuggets - Nuggets by 4
Rockets at Jazz - Jazz by 2
Bulls at Clippers - Bulls by 4

College Basketball

(5) Duke at Maryland - Duke by 1
(6) San Diego State at Colorado State - San Diego State by 5
(17) Syracuse at (7) Connecticut - UConn by 7
(9) BYU at Wyoming - BYU by 18
Marquette at (12) Villanova - Nova by 6
(15) Missouri at Oklahoma State - Missouri by 3
(20) Minnesota at Indiana - Indiana by 7
Nevada at (21) Utah State - Utah State by 16
Seton Hall at West Virginia - West Virginia by 13

Prediction Results - 1 Feb

NBA: 3/4 (.750) 385/534 overall (.721)
College Basketball: 5/6 (.833) 354/437 overall (.810)
Upsets: 1/1 (1.000) 95/152 overall (.625)

College Basketball Overrated and Underrated - 1 Feb

This week, two teams each exited my overrated and underrated rankings, and all went the right direction. Florida State was blown out by Clemson, just as I predicted, and lost their standing in the national polls. Syracuse lost to Marquette, which I saw coming, but what I didn't see was the loss to Seton Hall. North Carolina entered the AP top 25 this week after blowing out NC State on Saturday, and Marquette also made a big move in the polls after upsetting Syracuse and nearly beating UConn also. Here are this week's updated rankings, with last week's ranking in parentheses.

Overrated

1. Minnesota (1)

2. Utah State

3. Texas A&M (2)

4. Connecticut (3)

5. Villanova

Minnesota lost at Purdue by 12 this week, just like I said, but still maintained the spot in the rankings they "earned" by beating the same Purdue team by 3 a week earlier. After they lose twice this week, to unranked Indiana and top-ranked Ohio State, they should move back to the ranks of the unranked, where they should remain.

I hate to put a mid-major here, especially one with a 20-2 record that plays in a town called Logan, but Utah State has yet to beat anybody of worth this season. I do think they are a good team that should definitely make the tournament this season, but I don't think they're quite ready for the top 25. Blowouts of Nevada and Boise State this week could change my mind.

Texas A&M lost by 9 to unranked Nebraska this week, yet somehow was kept at #16 by the national voters. To repay the voters' confidence, they played one of their worst games of the entire season last night against the Texas Longhorns, getting blown out by 20 points by their in-state rival for the second straight week. They may be able to beat Baylor this week, but it may be so close that the Aggies can't handle it.

Just when I thought UConn had earned their way out of my overrated rankings with their huge road win at Marquette, they lost a home game to Louisville, a team that has struggled on the road all season. They should be able to beat struggling Syracuse this week, but a road game at Seton Hall could be a trap if the Huskies aren't careful.

Villanova has now lost 3 of their last 4 and is still ranked at #12 in the AP poll. The one win in that stretch was against Syracuse, a win that is losing strength with every day, yet they are not falling down the rankings like they should. They play Marquette and West Virginia this week, both at home, but chances are they will not be able to beat both of these very solid conference rivals this week.

Underrated

1. Maryland (4)

2. Belmont (1)

3. Saint Mary's

4. Washington (5)

5. Illinois

Maryland beat two decent teams on the road this week, including a 24-point blowout at Virginia, yet they are not receiving votes. Tomorrow is the biggest game of the season for the Terrapins, with Duke coming to town, and as of right now, the game is too close for me to call, but don't be surprised if Duke loses again.

Belmont's loss at Lipscomb took a little bit of the bloom off the rose, but the Bruins roared back with huge wins over Florida-Gulf Coast and Stetson. Their next opponent, Jacksonville, may be the best opponent they have left, but I don't see them blowing another conference game.

I wasn't too impressed by the Gaels' loss at Portland either, but the win Saint Mary's posted at Gonzaga should have been enough to keep them ranked. The loss may not look as good as their other 3, but Portland is in the top 25% of college basketball teams and a possible threat to pull off an upset in the WCC Tournament. If the Gaels lose again this week, I may have to eat my words.

Washington's loss at rival Washington State wasn't that big of a surprise, but it's being treated that way, despite the fact that the Cougars have been sitting just outside my top 25 for a month. Washington should rebound nicely this week with a road trip to the Oregon schools, who represent the dregs of the Pac 10, but they need to beat Arizona and Washington State later this season for anybody to notice them.

Illinois has now lost 4 of their last 5 games and was dropped from the top 25 after being ranked for most of the season. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to Northwestern this week too, but that doesn't mean they were overrated. They are just going through a tough section of the schedule, and when they upset Minnesota and Purdue in two straight games next week, people will say that they are back, but they really never left.

NBA Player of the Day

Blake Griffin - LAC - 32 pts, 11 reb, 6 ast, 13-20 FG, 6-6 FT

This sort of stat line is starting to look normal for Griffin, who has the Clippers on a 9-game home winning streak, the 3rd-longest in team history. Despite leading scorer Eric Gordon sitting out, the Clippers have continued to win, and the team just received news that Gordon may be back much earlier than expected.

Predictions - 1 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Wizards at Hornets - Hornets by 12

Spurs at Trail Blazers - Spurs by 4

Celtics at Kings - Celts by 9

Rockets at Lakers - Lakers by 8

College Basketball

(2) Kansas at Texas Tech - Kansas by 17

(10) Purdue at (18) Wisconsin - Wisconsin by 5

(11) Kentucky at Mississippi - Kentucky by 8

(24) Vanderbilt at (23) Florida - Florida by 3

Penn State at (24) Illinois - Illinois by 13

North Carolina at Boston College - North Carolina by 1

Prediction Results - 31 Jan

NBA: 5/7 (.714) 382/530 overall (.721)

College Basketball: 2/2 (1.000) 349/431 overall (.810)

Upsets: 2/2 (1.000) 94/151 overall (.623)