NCAA Football Rankings - 21 Nov

There are just a couple of weeks left in the season, and the potential playoff teams have been narrowed down significantly. Here are my thoughts on each team:

Georgia is practically a lock to get in. 

The winner of Ohio State/Michigan will make it for sure if they beat Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game.

Alabama will make it if they beat Auburn and don't get blown out by Georgia. 

Oklahoma State will make it if they beat Oklahoma and Baylor. 

Cincinnati needs either an Oklahoma State loss or Wisconsin to win the Big 10. 

Baylor gets in if they win the Big 12, which requires Oklahoma State to beat Oklahoma, plus a loss by Cincinnati and Wisconsin winning the Big 10.

Notre Dame needs Cincinnati to lose, Wisconsin to win the Big 10, and Oklahoma to win the Big 12 by beating Oklahoma State twice.

For now, I'm picking Michigan to get in with the Big 10 title, though that spot could just as easily go to Ohio State. Alabama gets in with a close loss to Georgia, and Oklahoma State takes the 4th spot by winning the Big 12, leaving Cincinnati at #5.

Here are my full current rankings, with projected conference champs in bold, runners-up underlined, and playoff teams in red:

						Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L
1	1	Georgia	-24.58	11	0	12	0
2	2	Ohio State	-22.46	10	1	10	2
3	3	Michigan	-19.58	10	1	11	1
4	4	Alabama	-18.12	10	1	11	1
5	6	Cincinnati	-16.89	11	0	12	0
6	7	Notre Dame	-15.76	10	1	11	1
7	5	Wisconsin	-15.38	8	3	9	3
8	11	Penn State	-13.74	7	4	7	5
9	8	Michigan St	-12.95	9	2	10	2
10	15	Utah	-12.86	8	3	9	3
11	12	NC State	-12.81	8	3	9	3
12	13	Oklahoma State	-12.66	10	1	11	1
13	9	Wake Forest	-11.96	9	2	10	2
14	10	Ole Miss	-11.56	9	2	10	2
15	16	Boise State	-11.34	7	4	8	4
16	17	Texas A&M	-11.34	8	3	9	3
17	14	Pittsburgh	-11.33	9	2	10	2
18	20	Baylor	-10.91	9	2	10	2
19	27	Clemson	-10.57	8	3	9	3
20	25	Purdue	-10.05	7	4	8	4
21	21	Iowa	-9.904	9	2	9	3
22	24	Houston	-9.701	10	1	11	1
23	39	Appalachian St	-9.647	9	2	10	2
24	19	UT San Antonio	-9.56	11	0	12	0
25	23	Arkansas	-9.543	7	4	8	4
26	36	Minnesota	-9.245	7	4	7	5
27	28	Nebraska	-9.181	3	8	4	7
28	18	Oregon	-8.8	9	2	10	2
29	33	Oklahoma	-8.758	10	1	10	2
30	29	Mississippi St	-8.409	7	4	7	5
31	31	Air Force	-8.29	8	3	9	3
32	40	Tennessee	-8.26	6	5	7	5
33	41	Louisville	-8.199	6	5	7	5
34	38	West Kentucky	-8.066	7	4	7	5
35	34	Iowa State	-8.046	6	5	7	5
36	22	SMU	-7.937	8	3	9	3
37	32	BYU	-7.861	9	2	10	2
38	26	Auburn	-7.782	6	5	6	6
39	42	Marshall	-7.724	7	4	8	4
40	48	UCLA	-7.228	7	4	7	4
41	37	Arizona State	-6.652	7	4	8	4
42	49	Oregon State	-6.457	7	4	7	5
43	43	Florida	-6.287	5	6	6	6
44	47	Kentucky	-6.06	8	3	8	4
45	35	Army	-6.05	7	3	7	4
46	45	Nevada	-5.837	7	4	8	4
47	30	Liberty	-5.592	7	4	8	4
48	44	Kansas State	-5.519	7	4	7	5
49	51	Fresno State	-5.498	8	3	8	3
50	54	UAB	-5.32	7	4	8	4
51	50	San Diego State	-5.276	10	1	10	2
52	46	LSU	-5.064	5	6	5	7
53	68	Louisiana	-4.859	10	1	11	1
54	53	Coastal Carolina	-4.765	9	2	10	2
55	52	North Carolina	-4.321	6	5	6	6
56	58	Toledo	-4.042	6	5	7	5
57	61	Miami	-3.951	6	5	7	5
58	60	Texas	-3.283	4	7	5	7
59	59	Virginia	-3.262	6	5	7	5
60	63	UCF	-3.255	7	4	8	4
61	55	Rutgers	-2.881	5	6	6	6
62	56	Syracuse	-2.792	5	6	5	7
63	65	Washington St	-2.632	6	5	7	5
64	66	Miami (OH)	-2.575	6	5	7	5
65	62	Boston College	-2.458	6	5	6	6
66	67	Illinois	-1.849	4	7	4	7
67	70	West Virginia	-1.464	5	6	6	6
68	64	Virginia Tech	-1.301	5	6	5	7
69	77	California	-1.281	4	6	5	7
70	72	Florida State	-1.251	5	6	5	7
71	73	South Carolina	-1.052	6	5	6	6
72	57	Utah State	-0.882	8	3	9	3
73	71	East Carolina	-0.822	7	4	7	5
74	86	Central Michigan	-0.325	7	4	8	4
75	74	Memphis	0.9028	5	6	6	6
76	87	Missouri	0.9573	6	5	6	6
77	76	Washington	0.9753	4	7	4	8
78	85	Northern Illinois	1.0544	8	3	9	3
79	69	USC	1.0977	4	6	5	7
80	80	Eastern Michigan	1.1841	7	4	7	5
81	98	Wyoming	1.1846	6	5	7	5
82	75	Georgia Tech	1.5887	3	8	3	9
83	78	Maryland	1.6349	5	6	5	7
84	95	Tulsa	1.696	5	6	5	7
85	88	West Michigan	1.8135	6	5	6	6
86	79	Texas Tech	2.2155	6	5	6	6
87	82	TCU	2.462	5	6	5	7
88	81	Mid Tennessee	2.6274	5	6	5	7
89	91	Old Dominion	3.07	5	6	6	6
90	83	Florida Atlantic	3.1094	5	6	6	6
91	93	UTEP	3.3361	7	4	6	5
92	92	Colorado State	3.4912	3	8	3	9
93	84	Ball State	3.4915	5	6	6	6
94	89	Indiana	3.5393	2	9	2	10
95	100	Tulane	3.6584	2	9	2	10
96	94	Northwestern	3.8981	3	8	3	9
97	97	Georgia State	4.3193	6	5	7	5
98	99	Navy	4.6142	2	8	3	9
99	90	Stanford	5.0275	3	8	3	9
100	106	North Texas	5.1103	5	6	5	7
101	105	Colorado	5.724	4	7	4	8
102	110	Kent State	5.7761	6	5	6	6
103	104	South Alabama	6.3774	5	6	5	7
104	103	UNLV	6.4262	2	9	2	10
105	96	Louisiana Tech	6.5808	3	8	4	8
106	102	Troy	6.7255	5	6	5	7
107	107	Buffalo	7.0139	4	7	4	8
108	109	Hawaii	7.249	5	7	5	7
109	101	South Florida	7.6309	2	9	2	10
110	108	San Jose State	7.7027	5	6	4	7
111	113	Ohio	9.6898	3	8	3	9
112	111	Charlotte	10.105	5	6	5	7
113	114	Arizona	10.687	1	10	1	11
114	112	Duke	11.023	3	8	3	9
115	116	Rice	11.032	3	8	3	9
116	115	Bowling Green	11.403	3	8	4	8
117	119	Louisiana Monroe	12.004	4	7	4	8
118	118	Georgia Southern	12.188	3	8	3	9
119	124	Southern Miss	12.692	2	9	3	9
120	120	New Mexico	12.764	3	8	3	9
121	117	Temple	13.396	3	8	3	9
122	123	Arkansas State	13.797	2	9	3	9
123	122	Texas State	13.908	3	8	3	9
124	125	Vanderbilt	14.007	2	9	2	10
125	126	Kansas	14.407	2	9	2	10
126	121	Akron	15.934	2	9	2	10
127	128	New Mexico St	17.504	1	10	2	9
128	127	Florida Intl	18.99	1	10	1	11
129	129	Connecticut	19.334	1	10	1	10
130	130	UMass	20.789	1	10	1	11