Sunday, September 23, 2018

NCAA Football Rankings - 23 Sep

Now that we are 4 full weeks into the season there is enough data available that last season's data and my preseason projections have been removed from the equation, meaning that these rankings are based solely on this season's performance, taking into account each team's strength of schedule. The larger jumps you see are the result of teams that are markedly improved (or worsened) since last season.

You may also notice that there is not a single Pac 12 team in the top 25. This is not a mistake. Out of the Power 5 conferences, the Pac 12 played the weakest nonconference schedule so far, and didn't perform well either. Against other Power 5 teams, the conference is just 3-4, and 2 of those wins are against North Carolina and Nebraska, the cellar-dwellers of their conferences. Against other FBS schools, they are 10-6, which means they are slightly above the average lower-level conference. There are a few opportunities left to improve their nonconference record, with 2 games against BYU and 2 against Notre Dame still looming, but for now, the Pac 12 is not on the same level as the other Power conferences.

These are my full current rankings, with projected conference champs in bold, and projected conference runners-up underlined:



Rec
ProjRec

TW
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
SOS
MOV
1
1
Alabama
-38.12
4
0
12
0
9
1
2
2
Penn State
-31.55
4
0
11
1
23
3
3
5
Georgia
-29.32
4
0
11
1
27
5
4
3
Appalachian State
-25.44
2
1
10
1
29
8
5
34
South Carolina
-25.02
2
1
8
3
1
56
6
4
Ohio State
-22.4
4
0
10
2
94
4
7
45
Texas Tech
-22.12
3
1
10
2
19
28
8
15
Clemson
-21.92
4
0
11
1
45
11
9
10
Miami
-21.53
3
1
10
2
28
27
10
7
Duke
-20.03
4
0
10
2
51
12
11
9
LSU
-20.05
4
0
9
3
22
30
12
11
Michigan
-19.75
3
1
8
4
62
16
13
23
North Texas
-19.34
4
0
12
0
105
2
14
36
Michigan State
-18.68
2
1
9
3
2
48
15
6
Oklahoma
-17.62
4
0
10
2
72
24
16
26
Texas A&M
-17.17
2
2
7
5
14
46
17
20
Boise State
-16.77
2
1
10
2
40
22
18
51
Houston
-16.46
3
1
10
2
54
23
19
28
Notre Dame
-16.52
4
0
11
1
25
44
20
48
Ole Miss
-15.05
3
1
8
4
10
72
21
42
Kentucky
-15.02
4
0
9
3
84
24
22
12
Auburn
-14.93
3
1
7
5
75
33
23
8
Mississippi State
-14.8
3
1
7
5
79
14
24
32
Utah State
-12.39
3
1
9
3
101
20
25
17
Oklahoma State
-13.68
3
1
8
4
74
39
26
16
Fresno State
-13.54
2
1
9
3
97
10
27
30
Wisconsin
-13.42
3
1
8
4
73
34
28
25
UCF
-13.46
3
0
10
1
123
6
29
24
Vanderbilt
-13.01
2
2
7
5
11
75
30
29
Indiana
-12.79
3
1
8
4
13
73
31
39
Buffalo
-12.26
4
0
11
1
90
19
32
18
Syracuse
-11.9
4
0
9
3
122
9
33
19
West Virginia
-11.82
3
0
7
4
124
7
34
14
Washington
-11.8
3
1
9
3
55
38
35
60
Coastal Carolina
-11.47
3
1
9
3
21
42
36
47
Army
-10.41
2
2
8
4
6
79
37
21
TCU
-10.57
2
2
7
5
34
47
38
61
Virginia
-10.17
3
1
8
4
86
37
39
71
Florida Intl
-9.497
2
2
9
3
18
74
40
33
Missouri
-9.267
3
1
7
5
66
49
41
62
Florida
-9.224
3
1
7
5
115
26
42
46
Eastern Michigan
-7.263
2
2
7
5
32
55
43
35
Stanford
-9.372
4
0
9
3
98
31
44
56
Toledo
-8.768
2
1
8
4
85
52
45
49
Texas
-8.758
3
1
7
5
64
61
46
22
Boston College
-8.44
3
1
8
4
87
32
47
38
BYU
-8.559
3
1
8
4
44
54
48
27
Cincinnati
-8.031
4
0
10
2
116
14
49
41
Washington State
-7.612
3
1
8
4
117
17
50
57
Arizona State
-7.657
2
2
7
5
33
67
51
40
Memphis
-6.632
3
1
8
4
126
18
52
69
Georgia Southern
-5.732
2
1
8
4
67
66
53
72
Louisiana Tech
-5.476
2
1
8
4
52
57
54
54
Colorado
-5.137
3
0
8
4
127
13
55
31
Akron
-5.126
2
1
7
4
70
68
56
91
Arizona
-5.092
2
2
7
5
50
69
57
65
Baylor
-4.719
3
1
6
6
102
41
58
70
Purdue
-4.027
1
3
4
8
41
89
59
73
Maryland
-4.169
3
1
6
6
89
53
60
44
Iowa State
-4.188
1
2
4
7
16
93
61
50
Arkansas State
-4.151
3
1
8
4
31
78
62
13
Virginia Tech
-4.047
2
1
6
5
109
29
63
78
Hawaii
-2.774
4
1
9
4
107
40
64
66
Western Michigan
-3.512
2
2
8
4
63
70
65
53
Northwestern
-2.987
1
2
5
7
8
102
66
59
California
-3.231
3
0
8
4
104
43
67
76
Temple
-2.668
2
2
6
6
83
71
68
81
UAB
-2.744
2
1
7
5
88
63
69
64
USC
-2.269
2
2
6
6
24
87
70
58
Air Force
-4.136
1
2
7
5
58
58
71
37
Iowa
-2.039
3
1
6
6
110
59
72
82
NC State
-1.942
3
0
7
4
128
21
73
63
South Florida
-1.827
4
0
8
4
111
45
74
83
Troy
-1.644
3
1
7
5
81
64
75
95
Kent State
-1.072
1
3
5
7
7
99
76
43
Minnesota
-0.403
3
1
6
6
106
62
77
88
Southern Miss
-0.355
2
1
6
5
129
35
78
68
Oregon
0.2163
3
1
6
6
130
36
79
96
Middle Tennessee
0.488
1
2
6
6
5
115
80
79
Liberty
0.7553
1
2
6
6
17
114
81
86
Louisville
0.6739
2
2
5
7
20
108
82
77
Ball State
0.7397
1
3
5
7
37
90
83
90
Navy
1.1155
2
2
5
8
78
76
84
87
New Mexico
1.236
2
1
6
6
103
51
85
55
Wake Forest
1.2465
2
2
5
7
71
86
86
67
Georgia Tech
1.2031
1
3
4
8
46
85
87
52
Utah
1.1726
2
1
5
7
108
60
88
89
Louisiana
1.3128
1
2
6
6
42
95
89
75
Kansas
1.549
2
2
4
8
112
50
90
110
Ohio
1.5291
1
2
6
6
36
84
91
80
San Diego State
-0.345
3
1
7
5
60
83
92
85
Nevada
1.596
2
2
6
6
56
81
93
101
Illinois
2.7215
2
2
5
7
61
106
94
74
Florida Atlantic
2.1964
2
2
6
6
26
103
95
84
Pittsburgh
3.0578
2
2
3
9
69
94
96
94
Tulane
3.5275
1
3
4
8
39
98
97
107
UMass
4.0165
2
3
5
7
47
92
98
115
Western Kentucky
4.2708
1
3
5
7
43
91
99
102
SMU
4.8666
1
3
4
8
3
124
100
97
Tulsa
4.854
1
3
4
8
57
96
101
99
UNLV
5.1647
2
2
5
7
118
64
102
122
Old Dominion
5.7949
1
3
5
7
76
103
103
98
Oregon State
6.1527
1
3
3
9
35
113
104
111
East Carolina
6.347
1
2
3
8
114
77
105
108
Arkansas
7.0252
1
3
2
10
53
105
106
100
UCLA
7.0078
0
3
2
10
4
129
107
106
Nebraska
7.2287
0
3
2
9
12
120
108
109
Louisiana Monroe
7.4594
2
2
5
7
49
110
109
112
Charlotte
7.9495
2
2
4
8
77
109
110
93
Tennessee
8.3429
2
2
3
9
121
82
111
119
South Alabama
8.3366
1
3
3
9
38
116
112
113
North Carolina
8.6594
1
2
3
8
59
101
113
92
Marshall
9.3676
2
1
5
6
119
80
114
104
Kansas State
9.9953
2
2
3
9
92
107
115
103
Florida State
10.271
2
2
3
9
100
100
116
123
Rice
10.852
1
3
4
9
48
118
117
114
Wyoming
10.863
2
2
4
8
96
97
118
116
Rutgers
12.38
1
3
2
10
30
121
119
118
Central Michigan
13.036
1
3
2
10
91
110
120
125
Connecticut
14.718
1
3
2
10
15
130
121
117
Miami (OH)
14.845
1
3
2
10
99
112
122
121
San Jose State
15.963
0
3
2
10
68
119
123
105
Northern Illinois
16.613
1
3
2
10
95
117
124
126
Texas State
17.122
1
3
3
9
120
88
125
120
Colorado State
17.862
1
4
2
10
80
123
126
124
Georgia State
18.603
1
3
2
10
65
125
127
127
UT San Antonio
20.188
1
3
2
10
82
122
128
129
New Mexico State
23.837
1
4
2
10
93
126
129
128
Bowling Green
24.449
1
3
1
11
113
127
130
130
UTEP
31.585
0
4
0
12
125
128
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