NBA Playoff Odds

For the first time in several years, the Warriors and Cavaliers are not locks to reach the NBA Finals, and they may not even be favorites thanks to strong teams in each conference emerging this year, along with Stephen Curry sitting out due to an ankle injury for at least the first round. I took the data from every game played this season, adjusted for momentum and playoff experience, and worked out the odds of any team beating any other in a series to determine each team's championship odds. Here is my breakdown of each team's chance to pass through each round and ultimately win the title, along with my picks for each round:

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Raptors - 91.95%
2. Rockets - 91.92%
3. Warriors - 83.3%
4. 76ers - 82.7%
5. Celtics - 77.9%
6. Cavaliers - 70.5%
7. Trail Blazers - 59.5%
8. Thunder - 52.6%
9. Jazz - 47.4%
10. Pelicans - 40.5%
11. Pacers - 29.5%
12. Bucks - 22.1%
13. Heat - 17.3%
14. Spurs - 16.7%
15. Timberwolves - 8.08%
16. Wizards - 8.05%

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

1. Rockets - 78.0%
2. Raptors - 74.8%
3. Warriors - 67.1%
4. 76ers - 53.7%
5. Celtics - 36.4%
6. Cavaliers - 18.6%
7. Trail Blazers - 14.8%
8. Thunder - 10.16%
9. Spurs - 10.15%
10. Jazz - 9.2%
11. Pelicans - 8.0%
12. Heat - 5.7%
13. Pacers - 4.253%
14. Bucks - 4.251%
15. Timberwolves - 2.7%
16. Wizards - 2.4%

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

1. Rockets - 61.3%
2. Raptors - 57.7%
3. Warriors - 24.4%
4. 76ers - 20.2%
5. Celtics - 10.2%
6. Cavaliers - 8.9%
7. Thunder - 4.2%
8. Jazz - 3.8%
9. Trail Blazers - 2.4%
10. Spurs - 2.2%
11. Pacers - 1.3%
12. Pelicans - 0.9%
13. Timberwolves - 0.75%
14. Heat - 0.71%
15. Wizards - 0.6%
16. Bucks - 0.4%

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

1. Rockets - 46.6%
2. Raptors - 25.9%
3. Warriors - 13.3%
4. 76ers - 5.4%
5. Celtics - 1.91%
6. Cavaliers - 1.87%
7. Thunder - 1.6%
8. Jazz - 1.4%
9. Spurs - 0.8%
10. Trail Blazers - 0.6%
11. Pelicans - 0.21%
12. Timberwolves - 0.19%
13. Pacers - 0.14%
14. Heat - 0.052%
15. Wizards - 0.049%
16. Bucks - 0.03%

My Picks

First Round

(1) Raptors over (8) Wizards in 5
(2) Celtics over (7) Bucks in 5
(3) 76ers over (6) Heat in 5
(4) Cavaliers over (5) Pacers in 7
(1) Rockets over (8) Timberwolves in 5
(2) Warriors over (7) Spurs in 5
(3) Trail Blazers over (6) Pelicans in 6
(5) Jazz over (4) Thunder in 7

Second Round

(1) Raptors over (4) Cavaliers in 5
(3) 76ers over (2) Celtics in 6
(1) Rockets over (5) Jazz in 5
(2) Warriors over (3) Trail Blazers in 5

Conference Finals

(1) Raptors over (3) 76ers in 7
(1) Rockets over (2) Warriors in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Rockets over (1) Raptors in 6