I have created a player-rating formula for NBA players that equalizes all statistics across all positions, so that guards aren't penalized for not rebounding and centers aren't penalized for lack of assists, etc. It also means that players who do things not necessarily expected from their position get bonus points. For MVP ratings, I also take team performance into account. For example, Kevin Love has been playing extremely well lately, but due to his team's poor record, he won't appear in this list. Here is my official list of MVP contenders as of today. The spaces in between groups of players show that there is a gap between one group of players and another.
1. Pau Gasol - LAL - 22.9 pts, 12.2 reb, .550 FG%
2. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 26.3 pts, 6.2 reb, 5.0 ast
3. LeBron James - MIA - 22.1 pts, 5.8 reb, 8.9 ast
4. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 23.3 pts, 8.1 ast, 2.1 stl
5. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 24.0 pts, 6.0 reb, 3.5 ast
6. Paul Millsap - UTA - 21.5 pts, 9.5 reb, 0.582 FG%
7. Chris Paul - NOH - 17.8 pts, 10.2 ast, 2.5 stl
8. Kevin Durant - OKC - 28.0 pts, 6.4 reb, .926 FT%
9. Derrick Rose - CHI - 25.5 pts, 8.7 ast, 1.1 stl
10. Monta Ellis - GSW - 26.5 pts, 4.8 ast, 2.6 stl
Pau Gasol is in a league by himself right now, averaging career highs in points and rebounds and leading the Lakers to one of the best records in the league. He has also been extremely consistent, never logging less than 17 points or 7 rebounds in a game this year.
Kobe is still Kobe. He's sitting right around his career averages all around, and the Lakers are winning. If both players can maintain their current levels of production through the season, I don't think the Lakers can be stopped.
LeBron James' scoring may be down from his 2 MVP seasons, but he is still one of the best in the league, as can be seen by his assist average, currently 6th in the NBA. With better teammates, he hasn't needed to score as much, but he's still finding ways to help the Heat win, and their only losses have come to division-leading teams.
Russell Westbrook is a new, and maybe unexpected, name on this list. But he has earned this spot with his new career highs in every category while teammate Kevin Durant has struggled a little to start off the season, including 36 points in a win over Portland this week.
Dwyane Wade has maintained his usual high level of play, even with LeBron in town. His only off games have been against the Boston Celtics, their main rival in the East, but he played very well in their losses to the Hornets and Jazz.
Paul Millsap has become the player Utah always thought he would be, now that Carlos Boozer is gone. His 46 points in the comeback win over Miami cemented his place on this list, as well as making him an early leader in the Most Improved Player voting.
Chris Paul is the only player on this list averaging less than 20 pointer per game, but even though his averages may be slightly down from 2 years ago, he is the undisputed leader of the team with the best record in the NBA.
Kevin Durant's early-season struggles seem to be lifting, and his scoring average is again creeping up toward that 30-point plateau he hit last year. He has hit an incredible 40 of 41 free throws in his past 5 games for an average of .976 over that span.
Derrick Rose continues to improve on his All-Star performance from last year, topping all of his averages from last year. He also has consecutive 33-point games heading into this weekend, and the Bulls are looking good for the playoffs.
Monta Ellis' numbers look a lot like they did a year ago, but the biggest difference is that this year the Warriors are winning some games. Ellis opened the season with a 46-point performance against the Rockets, and currently owns a streak of 9 straight 20-point games.
Other players just outside the top 10: Carmelo Anthony, Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Rudy Gay, and Rajon Rondo.
NBA Predictions - 19 Nov
Thunder at Celtics - Celtics by 13
Bucks at 76ers - Bucks by 4
Grizzlies at Wizards - Grizzlies by 4
Rockets at Raptors - Raptors by 2
Bobcats at Heat - Heat by 18
Cavaliers at Hornets - Hornets by 17
Lakers at Timberwolves - Lakers by 13
Spurs at Jazz - Spurs by 1
Bulls at Mavericks - Mavericks by 7
Nets at Kings - Nets by 4
Knicks at Warriors - Warriors by 3
Prediction results - 18 Nov
NBA: 3/3 (1.000)
College Football: 1/1 (1.000)
This sounds a little like my stats project from last year only a lot more complex. I don't know how to equal everything out, so I guess I kinda penalized guards for lack of rebounds and centers for lack of three pointers and such.
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