NFL Playoff Odds

The NFL playoffs begin this weekend with the 4 Wild Card games, and though the favorites all have byes this week, it is quite common for teams playing during Wild Card Weekend to reach or win the Super Bowl, so don't ignore these games. I have broken down the odds of each possible matchup and each team's odds of winning any given matchup to project each team's odds of advancing through the playoffs and winning it all.

Odds of Winning Wild Card Game

1. Steelers - 73.4%
2. Seahawks - 64.8%
3. Raiders - 58.8%
4. Packers - 58.7%
5. Giants - 41.3%
6. Texans - 41.2%
7. Lions - 35.2%
8. Dolphins - 26.6%

Pittsburgh should win, and Seattle will be a favorite, but the other two games are pretty much toss-ups, which make for fun games. There are 4 Super Bowl champs starting at QB this weekend, but only one waiting at home with a bye.

Odds of Reaching Conference Championships

1. Patriots - 76.6%
2. Falcons - 71.4%
3. Cowboys - 70.0%
4. Chiefs - 62.0%
5. Steelers - 29.6%
6. Raiders - 19.3%
7. Packers - 19.2%
8. Seahawks - 18.2%
9. Giants - 12.7%
10. Lions - 8.5%
11. Texans - 7.8%
12. Dolphins - 4.7%

The top seeds are the clear favorites to reach the Conference Championship games, with Kansas City facing the toughest path because of the high probability that they will face Pittsburgh in their first playoff game.

Odds of reaching Super Bowl

1. Patriots - 50.2%
2. Cowboys - 40.3%
3. Falcons - 39.4%
4. Chiefs - 27.1%
5. Steelers - 12.7%
6. Raiders - 7.5%
7. Seahawks - 7.2%
8. Packers - 7.1%
9. Giants - 4.4%
10. Lions - 2.2%
11. Texans - 1.9%
12. Dolphins - 1.1%

Nobody is out of the running to make the Super Bowl, but there is a very good chance that you will see Tom Brady and the Patriots playing in February again, and he probably won't meet his Kryptonite, Eli Manning, in that game.

Odds of winning Super Bowl

1. Patriots - 28.3%
2. Falcons - 21.3%
3. Cowboys - 20.2%
4. Chiefs - 13.4%
5. Steelers - 5.9%
6. Raiders - 3.3%
7. Packers - 2.9%
8. Seahawks - 2.8%
9. Giants - 1.7%
10. Lions - 0.7%
11. Texans - 0.5%
12. Dolphins - 0.3%

There are plenty of teams that could win it all, but there is an 83% chance the winner will be on bye this weekend, though there is a 43% chance that at least one of the teams will be playing this weekend.

My Picks

Wild Card
Steelers 28, Dolphins 18
Raiders 24, Texans 20
Seahawks 24, Lions 17
Giants 24, Packers 21

Divisional

Patriots 27, Raiders 19
Steelers 24, Chiefs 20
Cowboys 24, Giants 17
Falcons 30, Seahawks 21

Conference Championships

Patriots 25, Steelers 18
Falcons 27, Cowboys 26

Super Bowl

Patriots 27, Falcons 26