Tuesday, October 21, 2014

NFL Rankings and Weekend Predictions

The Denver Broncos took care of business again this week, dismantling the 49ers 42-17, which allowed them to hold the top spot for the third straight week. Two division rivals are still in the top 4 as well, meaning they won't have an easy path to the playoffs, but it seems almost impossible at this point that Denver won't win their division yet again. Here are this week's full rankings, along with picks for all of this weekend's games:





Rec
ProjRec
SOS

TW
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
Curr
Over
Seed
1
1
Denver
-18.9091
5
1
13
3
4
4
A1
2
2
Indianapolis
-16.0875
5
2
12
4
9
18
A2
3
4
Kansas City
-12.3777
3
3
10
6
1
8
A5
4
3
San Diego
-10.4648
5
2
10
6
17
2
A6
5
5
Baltimore
-10.1045
5
2
11
5
32
27
A3
6
7
Green Bay
-9.36781
5
2
11
5
22
28
N1
7
8
Dallas
-8.03058
6
1
11
5
25
19
N2
8
6
Seattle
-7.91549
3
3
9
7
3
5

9
12
Philadelphia
-7.87866
5
1
11
5
23
16
N5
10
11
Arizona
-7.4772
5
1
11
5
7
9
N3
11
9
New England
-5.21374
5
2
9
7
21
11
A4
12
10
San Francisco
-5.16122
4
3
9
7
2
7

13
17
Miami
-4.53931
3
3
8
8
13
14

14
13
Detroit
-2.23163
5
2
10
6
28
24
N6
15
14
Houston
-1.3611
3
4
8
8
14
20

16
20
NY Giants
-0.24427
3
4
7
9
11
15

17
15
Buffalo
0.36044
4
3
8
8
16
13

18
16
Cleveland
1.7478
3
3
8
8
26
26

19
18
Cincinnati
2.09553
3.5
2.5
8.5
7.5
12
21

20
19
Chicago
2.1723
3
4
7
9
18
23

21
22
Tennessee
3.07346
2
5
6
10
6
12

22
23
Washington
3.549
2
5
6
10
15
17

23
24
Pittsburgh
3.67472
4
3
8
8
27
22

24
25
New Orleans
4.26376
2
4
7
9
30
32

25
28
NY Jets
5.30133
1
6
4
12
5
10

26
31
Jacksonville
5.65276
1
6
4
12
8
6

27
21
Carolina
6.53032
3.5
3.5
7.5
8.5
19
29
N4
28
29
Minnesota
6.9034
2
5
6
10
20
25

29
26
Oakland
7.49056
0
6
2
14
10
1

30
30
St Louis
7.64112
2
4
5
11
24
3

31
27
Atlanta
8.64429
2
5
6
10
29
30

32
32
Tampa Bay
17.4456
1
5
3
13
31
31


Kansas City pulled off the road upset of San Diego on Sunday, which pushed the Chiefs ahead of the Chargers for the #3 spot in the rankings and gave them the advantage in case of a tie at the end of the season, which is where they appear to be headed right now. This week they host in-state rival St. Louis, which shouldn't be overlooked after upsetting the Seahawks on Sunday.

The Eagles jumped into the top 10 this week during their bye, with the teams they have already beaten going 4-1 this week, with even Jacksonville getting in on the action with their first win of the season. They are headed to Arizona this week in a showdown of 1-loss teams.

Arizona is the lowest ranked of the 1-loss teams, and with good reason. Of the 5 opponents they have beaten, only 1 (San Diego) is looking like a playoff team, and that win came by a single point. In their only other matchup with a real team, the Cardinals were destroyed by Denver while Peyton Manning set a career high for passing yardage in a game.

Playoff Picks

Wild Card

(6) San Diego over (3) Baltimore
(4) New England over (5) Kansas City
(3) Arizona over (6) Detroit
(5) Philadelphia over (4) Carolina

Divisional Round

(1) Denver over (6) San Diego
(2) Indianapolis over (4) New England
(5) Philadelphia over (1) Green Bay
(3) Arizona over (2) Dallas

Conference Championships

(1) Denver over (2) Indianapolis
(5) Philadelphia over (3) Arizona

Super Bowl

(1) Denver over (5) Philadelphia

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Tuesday

Arkansas State at Louisiana-Lafayette - Red Wolves by 4

Thursday

Connecticut at (18) East Carolina - Pirates by 32
Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech - Hokies by 4

San Diego at Denver - Broncos by 12

Friday

South Florida at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 20
Troy at South Alabama - Jaguars by 28
BYU at Boise State - Broncos by 11
(6) Oregon at California - Ducks by 13

Saturday

UAB at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 17
Memphis at SMU - Tigers by 43
North Carolina at Virginia - Cavaliers by 12
Texas at (11) Kansas State - Wildcats by 21
Minnesota at Illinois - Golden Gophers by 5
Maryland at Wisconsin - Badgers by 6
Rutgers at (16) Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 26
North Texas at Rice - Owls by 13
Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan - Huskies by 11
San Jose State at Navy - Midshipmen by 7
Ohio at Western Michigan - Broncos by 17
Massachusetts at Toledo - Rockets by 9
Akron at Ball State - Zips by 5
Georgia Southern at Georgia State - Eagles by 27
(25) UCLA at Colorado - Bruins by 15
Kent State at Miami (OH) - Redhawks by 13
Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 7
Central Michigan at Buffalo - Bulls by 1
Oregon State at Stanford - Cardinal by 13
FAU at (23) Marshall - Thundering Herd by 36
Louisiana Tech at Southern Miss - Bulldogs by 8
Michigan at (8) Michigan State - Spartans by 29
(22) West Virginia at Oklahoma State - Mountaineers by 8
Texas Tech at (10) TCU - Horned Frogs by 33
Boston College at Wake Forest - Golden Eagles by 17
(1) Mississippi State at Kentucky - Bulldogs by 19
Vanderbilt at Missouri - Tigers by 23
Old Dominion at Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers by 19
UNLV at Utah State - Aggies by 27
(15) Arizona at Washington State - Wildcats by 3
Temple at UCF - Knights by 3
Syracuse at (21) Clemson - Tigers by 28
Wyoming at Colorado State - Rams by 25
UTEP at UTSA - Roadrunners by 16
Texas State at Louisiana-Monroe - Warhawks by 1
(3) Ole Miss at (24) LSU - Rebels by 10
South Carolina at (5) Auburn - Tigers by 26
(4) Alabama at Tennessee - Crimson Tide by 14
(13) Ohio State at Penn State - Buckeyes by 19
(20) USC at (19) Utah - Utes by 3
(14) Arizona State at Washington - Sun Devils by 3

Sunday

Nevada at Hawaii - Wolf Pack by 8

Detroit at Atlanta - Lions by 8
Saint Louis at Kansas City - Chiefs by 23
Houston at Tennessee - Texans by 1
Minnesota at Tampa Bay - Vikings by 7
Seattle at Carolina - Seahawks by 11
Baltimore at Cincinnati - Ravens by 9
Miami at Jacksonville - Dolphins by 7
Chicago at New England - Patriots by 11
Buffalo at NY Jets - Bills by 2
Philadelphia at Arizona - Cardinals by 3
Oakland at Cleveland - Browns by 9
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh - Colts by 17
Green Bay at New Orleans - Packers by 10

Monday

Washington at Dallas - Cowboys by 15

Prediction Results

College Football: 36-17 (.679) 357-134 overall (.727)
Upsets: 2-3 (.400) 24-54 overall (.308)
NFL: 10-5 (.667) 69-36 overall (.657)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 7-10 overall (.412)

Monday, October 20, 2014

College Football Rankings - 19 Oct

The SEC, which already held the top 4 spots in last week's rankings, found a way to improve upon that unprecedented feat, grabbing the top 5 spots on this week's list. Alabama's 59-0 win was a major factor in many moves, with the Crimson Tide moving up to #1, while Mississippi State slipped a few spots since their win over the Aggies was by only 17. Here are this week's full college rankings, as well as my updated picks for the college football playoff:





Rec
ProjRec
SOS
TW
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
Curr
Over
1
3
Ole Miss
-33.528
7
0
11
2
8
3
2
10
Alabama
-33.41
6
1
10
2
7
4
3
1
Auburn
-30.719
5
1
9
3
1
1
4
4
Georgia
-29.549
6
1
11
2
18
35
5
2
Mississippi State
-28.127
6
0
10
2
9
6
6
9
Marshall
-27.651
7
0
12
1
105
97
7
13
Ohio State
-26.796
5
1
11
2
78
65
8
18
Michigan State
-23.642
6
1
10
2
100
73
9
7
TCU
-23.017
5
1
10
2
86
81
10
11
Clemson
-22.469
5
2
10
3
13
57
11
5
Oklahoma
-21.161
5
2
9
3
12
42
12
23
Nebraska
-19.708
6
1
11
2
59
71
13
19
Memphis
-19.24
3
3
9
3
10
96
14
21
Oregon
-19.101
6
1
10
3
50
52
15
12
Arkansas
-18.805
3
4
6
6
6
2
16
17
LSU
-18.685
6
2
7
5
54
8
17
6
Baylor
-18.67
6
1
10
2
90
84
18
16
Louisville
-16.682
6
2
8
4
43
38
19
26
USC
-16.543
5
2
8
4
25
15
20
15
Florida State
-16.477
7
0
10
2
76
51
21
20
UCLA
-16.04
5
2
9
4
4
10
22
31
Kansas State
-15.706
5
1
9
3
71
48
23
34
West Virginia
-15.216
5
2
8
4
20
17
24
24
Georgia Southern
-14.975
5
2
9
3
108
125
25
8
Texas A&M
-14.848
5
3
7
5
3
7
26
29
Utah
-14.088
5
1
8
4
51
32
27
14
Tennessee
-13.795
3
4
6
6
2
5
28
32
Miami (FL)
-13.613
4
3
7
5
15
14
29
35
Virginia Tech
-12.516
4
3
7
5
19
33
30
37
Notre Dame
-11.92
6
1
9
3
69
34
31
25
Louisiana Tech
-11.731
4
3
8
5
28
54
32
54
Arizona State
-10.869
5
1
8
4
40
37
33
36
East Carolina
-10.45
5
1
10
2
117
115
34
66
Missouri
-10.242
5
2
8
4
34
39
35
33
Duke
-10.222
6
1
10
3
115
104
36
43
Boston College
-10.015
4
3
7
5
41
36
37
28
Stanford
-9.7972
4
3
6
6
52
22
38
48
Boise State
-9.7384
5
2
9
4
24
67
39
52
Arizona
-9.6351
5
1
8
4
48
45
40
44
South Carolina
-9.5594
4
3
6
6
29
9
41
39
Colorado State
-9.4881
6
1
10
2
74
105
42
38
Arkansas State
-9.3724
4
2
9
3
88
110
43
46
Pittsburgh
-8.7463
4
3
7
5
39
56
44
41
Wisconsin
-8.6535
4
2
7
5
126
93
45
62
Houston
-8.3921
4
3
8
4
93
124
46
40
Utah State
-7.5398
4
3
8
5
35
89
47
55
Maryland
-7.4415
5
2
7
5
66
49
48
61
Middle Tennessee
-7.4165
5
3
8
4
21
62
49
47
Georgia Tech
-7.3601
5
2
7
5
32
11
50
53
Virginia
-6.9535
4
3
6
6
57
28
51
30
UAB
-6.8168
3
4
5
7
84
40
52
27
Temple
-6.8038
4
2
7
5
125
90
53
45
Minnesota
-6.0727
6
1
8
4
80
44
54
22
Florida
-5.6637
3
3
5
6
14
19
55
72
Nevada
-4.8313
4
3
7
5
37
79
56
51
Navy
-4.7987
3
4
6
6
58
74
57
56
UCF
-4.4788
4
2
8
4
81
116
58
49
Brigham Young
-4.0835
4
3
7
5
55
75
59
50
Western Kentucky
-3.7316
3
3
7
5
38
82
60
81
Western Michigan
-3.5893
4
3
8
4
87
119
61
91
Cincinnati
-3.389
3
3
7
5
31
77
62
65
Rice
-3.1217
3
3
6
6
64
70
63
58
Washington
-3.1043
5
2
8
5
102
68
64
74
San Jose State
-2.8706
3
3
6
6
62
58
65
63
Penn State
-2.7851
4
2
7
5
89
61
66
60
South Alabama
-2.7737
4
2
7
5
77
88
67
67
Akron
-2.5087
4
3
8
5
95
113
68
71
Oregon State
-2.1875
4
2
7
5
61
55
69
42
Kentucky
-2.1661
5
2
6
6
110
21
70
59
Oklahoma State
-2.0705
5
2
6
6
91
27
71
70
Washington State
-1.9214
2
5
4
8
26
30
72
76
Iowa
-1.4621
5
2
7
5
106
86
73
73
California
-1.3879
4
3
6
6
63
46
74
78
North Carolina State
-1.1278
4
4
6
6
27
60
75
82
North Carolina
-0.5374
3
4
5
7
16
12
76
101
Louisiana-Lafayette
-0.4164
3
3
7
5
36
99
77
86
Fresno State
-0.179
3
5
5
7
22
69
78
79
Michigan
0.02253
3
4
5
7
68
31
79
104
Appalachian State
0.03525
2
5
5
7
99
117
80
57
Texas
0.06732
3
4
4
8
53
26
81
69
Northwestern
0.25857
3
4
5
7
73
72
82
85
San Diego State
0.54461
4
3
7
6
114
106
83
64
Rutgers
0.70584
5
2
6
6
65
25
84
89
Syracuse
0.70915
3
4
4
8
56
23
85
75
Air Force
0.82581
5
2
8
4
116
109
86
100
Southern Miss
1.09325
3
4
5
7
11
13
87
92
UTSA
2.10484
2
5
5
7
33
78
88
77
Florida International
2.55539
3
5
5
7
72
83
89
95
Toledo
2.74789
4
3
7
6
101
120
90
97
Purdue
3.00329
3
5
4
8
75
64
91
102
Florida Atlantic
3.48529
3
4
5
7
23
24
92
90
Northern Illinois
4.24962
5
2
7
5
123
114
93
68
North Texas
4.33164
2
5
4
8
120
111
94
87
Colorado
4.6224
2
5
3
9
30
18
95
93
Iowa State
4.74871
2
5
4
8
42
47
96
94
Texas Tech
4.89068
3
4
4
8
60
29
97
80
Indiana
5.91572
3
4
5
7
46
50
98
84
Bowling Green
5.92339
5
3
7
5
107
112
99
96
Central Michigan
6.56284
4
4
6
6
124
127
100
105
Massachusetts
6.62719
2
6
4
8
122
123
101
107
Miami (OH)
7.44408
1
7
3
9
47
102
102
109
Ball State
7.45007
2
5
5
7
118
126
103
98
Illinois
7.59723
3
4
4
8
70
59
104
103
Hawaii
7.86424
2
5
4
9
109
95
105
99
Vanderbilt
7.96056
2
5
3
9
17
16
106
108
Ohio
8.38595
4
4
6
6
96
107
107
83
Texas State
9.4725
3
3
5
7
128
122
108
111
Old Dominion
9.73488
3
4
4
8
92
85
109
117
Wyoming
10.1065
3
4
4
8
45
53
110
121
New Mexico
10.2831
2
5
3
9
111
98
111
106
Buffalo
10.5394
3
4
5
7
127
128
112
110
Tulane
10.7076
2
5
3
9
94
63
113
88
Wake Forest
11.6898
2
5
3
9
67
41
114
119
South Florida
11.875
3
4
4
8
121
101
115
113
Kansas
12.6053
2
5
3
9
79
20
116
118
Idaho
12.8687
1
6
2
9
104
103
117
120
UTEP
13.2451
3
3
4
8
98
91
118
123
UNLV
14.002
2
5
4
9
49
76
119
112
Louisiana-Monroe
14.417
3
3
4
8
97
80
120
127
Kent State
14.8591
1
6
2
10
85
100
121
122
Connecticut
16.0804
1
5
3
9
113
108
122
114
Army
16.1372
2
5
4
8
119
118
123
115
Tulsa
16.3038
1
6
2
10
83
66
124
128
Georgia State
17.1333
1
6
2
10
103
87
125
124
New Mexico State
17.9871
2
6
3
9
112
121
126
116
Troy
19.9891
1
6
2
10
82
92
127
126
Eastern Michigan
20.3267
2
5
3
9
44
94
128
125
Southern Methodist
28.6661
0
6
1
11
5
43

Ole Miss took over the top spot this week, as they are one of only 4 remaining unbeaten teams, and happen to be leading the nation in scoring defense, giving up only 10.6 points per game. The Rebels win over Alabama helped them move to #1, while the Crimson Tide moved to #2, and their next two games are against LSU and Auburn, which doesn't allow much of a break.

Ohio State's 4th straight blowout victory moved them back into the top 10 this week, and as the favorite to win the Big 10, the Buckeyes are in complete control of their destiny, and if they can beat Michigan State on November 8, there will be nothing standing in their way but a possible showdown with Nebraska for the conference title.

USC climbed back into the top 25 after a 4-touchdown blowout of Colorado, marking their second straight win after losing on a Hail Mary to Arizona State. With only the loss to Boston College as a real negative on their resume, USC is positioning themselves well for a run at the Pac 12 title, where they are currently the favorites to face Oregon in the title game.

Playoff Picks

Ole Miss
Ohio State
Clemson
Alabama

Alternates: Marshall, Michigan State, TCU, Auburn