Saturday, April 25, 2015

Predictions - 25 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Atlanta at Brooklyn - Hawks by 5
Chicago at Milwaukee - Bulls by 3
Golden State at New Orleans - Warriors by 6
Memphis at Portland - Trail Blazers by 1

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 3-0 (1.000) 19-3 overall (.864)
Upsets: 1-0

Friday, April 24, 2015

Predictions - 24 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Houston at Dallas - Rockets by 1
Toronto at Washington - Wizards by 2
LA Clippers at San Antonio - Spurs by 3

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 3-0 (1.000) 16-3 overall (.842)

Thursday, April 23, 2015

NBA Playoff Odds - 23 Apr

Two games have now been completed in each playoff series, and 7 of the 8 series stand at 2-0, with only Washington and San Antonio winning on the road so far. I've updated each team's chances of winning their first round series from its current standing, as well as advancing through each remaining round below:

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Warriors - 99.1% (+3.0)
2. Hawks - 98.1% (+4.9)
3. Bulls - 94.4% (+15.8)
4. Cavaliers - 93.7% (+17.2)
5. Rockets - 93.0% (+19.1)
6. Grizzlies - 83.2% (+36.2)
7. Wizards - 82.5% (+48.6)
8. Spurs - 58.1% (+1.4)
9. Clippers - 41.9% (-1.4)
10. Raptors - 17.5% (-48.6)
11. Trail Blazers - 16.8% (-36.2)
12. Mavericks - 7.0% (-19.1)
13. Celtics - 6.3% (-17.2)
14. Bucks - 5.6% (-15.8)
15. Nets - 1.9% (-4.9)

The smallest changes came from the #1 seeds, which had little space to improve their odds, and from the Spurs, which earned a split with the Clippers, which pretty much makes it a 5-game series with San Antonio holding home court.

Odds of Winning Second Round

1. Warriors - 92.4% (+2.7)
2. Hawks - 79.6% (+6.6)
3. Cavaliers - 62.6% (+9.1)
4. Spurs - 46.0% (-2.4)
5. Bulls - 34.9% (+1.9)
6. Clippers - 31.3% (-3.0)
7. Rockets - 22.3% (+6.7)
8. Wizards - 16.3% (+9.9)
9. Grizzlies - 6.4% (+2.8)
10. Raptors - 3.7% (-15.3)
11. Celtics - 1.9% (-7.7)

The biggest jump here belongs to Washington, which was not expected to win the first round originally but took a 2-0 lead on the road in Toronto. Cleveland also moved up well after earning two tough victories over a hot Celtics squad.

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 65.6% (+4.0)
2. Hawks - 39.6% (-0.7)
3. Cavaliers - 38.8% (+6.3)
4. Spurs - 18.4% (-3.2)
5. Bulls - 17.4% (+1.3)
6. Clippers - 11.0% (-1.5)
7. Rockets - 3.5% (+1.0)
8. Wizards - 2.8% (+1.6)
9. Grizzlies - 1.3% (+1.3)

The Cavaliers had the biggest jump this week, mostly because they were projected to have a long series with Boston, which is not looking to be the case at this point.

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 57.4% (+2.9)
2. Spurs - 14.6% (-3.2)
3. Cavaliers - 8.3% (+1.8)
4. Clippers - 8.2% (-1.3)
5. Hawks - 6.9% (-0.3)
6. Bulls - 2.3% (+0.3)
7. Rockets - 1.7% (+0.5)

Golden State made the largest leap here after handling their business at home, which is all they need to do to win this year's title.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Cleveland at Boston - Cavaliers by 2
Chicago at Milwaukee - Bulls by 2
Golden State at New Orleans - Warriors by 6

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 2-1 (.667) 13-3 overall (.813)

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Predictions - 22 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Brooklyn at Atlanta - Hawks by 9
Portland at Memphis - Grizzlies by 2
San Antonio at LA Clippers - Clippers by 2

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 2-1 (.667) 11-2 overall (.846)

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Predictions - 21 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Boston at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 6
Washington at Toronto - Raptors by 3
Dallas at Houston - Rockets by 5

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 2-0 (1.000) 9-1 overall (.900)

Monday, April 20, 2015

Predictions - 20 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Milwaukee at Chicago - Bulls by 6
New Orleans at Golden State - Warriors by 11

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 4-0 (1.000) 7-1 overall (.875)

Sunday, April 19, 2015

Predictions - 19 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Boston at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 5
Brooklyn at Atlanta - Hawks by 9
Portland at Memphis - Grizzlies by 2
San Antonio at LA Clippers - Clippers by 1

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 3-1 (.750)