Monday, December 17, 2018

Basketball Predictions - 18 Dec

Upset picks are in italics.
Pick of the Day in bold.

NBA

Cleveland at Indiana - Pacers by 14
Washington at Atlanta - Wizards by 4
LA Lakers at Brooklyn - Lakers by 1
Dallas at Denver - Nuggets by 8.5

NCAA

Princeton at (2) Duke - Blue Devils by 33
Florida A&M at Oregon - Ducks by 21
Appalachian State at Georgetown - Hoyas by 9.5
Youngstown State at (15) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 27.5
Albany at Providence - Friars by 16
Binghamton at Notre Dame - Irish by 25
Charleston at Siena - Cougars by 3
Drexel at Connecticut - Huskies by 12
Tennessee State at Akron - Zips by 13.5
Charleston Southern at Clemson - Tigers by 13.5
Xavier at Missouri - Tigers by 0.5
Oakland at Georgia - Bulldogs by 9.5
Mt. St. Mary's at American - Eagles by 18
UNC Asheville at Stetson - Hatters by 11
South Florida at FIU - Golden Panthers by 3
St. Bonaventure at Vermont - Catamounts by 14.5
Elon at Kennesaw State - Owls by 3.5
Citadel at Campbell - Bulldogs by 1.5
Radford at UNC Greensboro - Spartans by 9
IUPUI at Fort Wayne - Mastodons by 1
Franciscan at St. Francis (PA) - Red Flash by 28
Morehead State at Wright State - Raiders by 11
Louisiana College at Northwestern State - Demons by 15.5
Alabama State at Sam Houston State - Bearkats by 4.5
Louisiana at McNeese - Ragin Cajuns by 2
Bradley at Georgia Southern - Eagles by 13
East Carolina at Charlotte - Pirates by 0.5
South Dakota at (1) Kansas - Jayhawks by 24
(14) Buffalo at Syracuse - Bulls by 2
Liberty vs. Alabama - Flames by 3
Mercer at Florida - Gators by 14.5
Rice at UT Rio Grande Valley - Vaqueros by 13.5
Nicholls at UL Monroe - Warhawks by 10
Missouri State at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 4
Alcorn State at UAB - Blazers by 9
Williams Baptist at New Orleans - Privateers by 25
Evansville at Murray State - Racers by 20.5
Benedictine at Loyola Chicago - Ramblers by 33.5
North Alabama at Jacksonville State - Gamecocks by 15
Presbyterian at Butler - Bulldogs by 14.5
Stephen F Austin at Baylor - Bears by 20.5
Huston-Tillotson at Texas A&M-CC - Islanders by 22.5
Chattanooga at UT Martin - Skyhawks by 3.5
UT Arlington at (8) Gonzaga - Bulldogs by 28.5
North Dakota at (20) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 21
Western Carolina at (23) Iowa - Hawkeyes by 24
North Texas at New Mexico - Mean Green by 1.5
Creighton at Oklahoma - Sooners by 10
Montana State at Denver - Pioneers by 7
South Dakota State at Eastern Washington - Jackrabbits by 9
San Jose State at Stanford - Cardinal by 23
USC at Santa Clara - Trojans by 5.5
Cal Poly at CSU Bakersfield - Roadrunners by 9.5

Results

NBA: 5-1 (.833) 282-166 overall (.629)
Upsets: 43-42 overall (.506)
NCAA: 16-2 (.889) 1623-390 overall (.806)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 82-91 overall (.474)
Pick of the Day: 39-2 (.951)

NCAA Basketball Rankings - 17 Dec

The top few teams remained the same this week, but there was some good movement lower down in the rankings. The hottest team of the week was Belmont, who went to LA and beat the other Bruins in a big upset, which moved them up 20 spots to #37 on this week's list. The team that dropped the farthest was Ohio State, who fell 8 spots despite winning, because they narrowly escaped against Bucknell in a home game that they should have won easily. Here are my full current rankings, with projected conference champs in bold, at-large teams underlined, and teams whose in/out status changed in italics:





Record

TW
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
MOV
SOS
1
1
Duke
-25.06
9
1
1
55
2
2
Michigan State
-22.08
9
2
16
8
3
3
Virginia Tech
-21.13
9
1
4
89
4
5
North Carolina
-20.85
8
2
13
25
5
4
Michigan
-19.66
11
0
15
61
6
6
Gonzaga
-19.32
9
2
36
7
7
13
Nebraska
-17.83
9
2
17
108
8
7
Nevada
-17.61
11
0
19
75
9
14
Texas Tech
-17.31
10
0
2
311
10
12
Utah State
-17.3
9
2
6
135
11
8
Kansas
-17.25
9
0
88
4
12
11
Wisconsin
-16.95
9
2
34
22
13
15
Tennessee
-16.77
8
1
24
97
14
17
Virginia
-16.71
9
0
9
210
15
18
Oklahoma
-15.95
9
1
57
20
16
10
Auburn
-15.9
9
1
12
215
17
9
Ohio State
-15.89
9
1
32
90
18
16
Buffalo
-15.8
10
0
10
168
19
22
NC State
-15.64
9
1
5
302
20
24
Mississippi State
-15.4
9
1
37
82
21
21
Cincinnati
-14.7
9
2
43
87
22
20
Louisville
-14.66
8
3
82
24
23
19
Purdue
-14.52
6
5
105
3
24
27
Florida State
-14.37
8
1
56
56
25
25
Iowa State
-14.35
9
2
26
156
26
33
Murray State
-14.01
7
1
3
305
27
23
San Francisco
-13.91
10
1
8
303
28
35
Iowa
-13.54
8
2
100
33
29
26
Indiana
-13.49
9
2
77
44
30
29
Arizona State
-13.15
8
1
71
71
31
36
Maryland
-12.9
9
2
55
159
32
38
Ole Miss
-12.81
8
2
49
93
33
28
Florida
-12.8
5
4
124
15
34
42
Texas
-12.74
7
3
150
21
35
32
Butler
-12.62
7
3
72
58
36
44
Lipscomb
-12.57
7
3
30
88
37
57
Belmont
-12.36
8
1
28
123
38
50
TCU
-12.23
8
1
39
205
39
34
Marquette
-12.22
8
2
110
51
40
30
UCF
-12.17
9
2
51
172
41
40
UCLA
-11.6
7
3
137
62
42
37
Georgia Tech
-11.41
5
3
68
119
43
47
Kansas State
-11.34
7
2
53
140
44
54
Creighton
-11.26
7
3
157
28
45
55
Villanova
-11.18
8
4
98
45
46
48
Kentucky
-11.12
8
2
67
214
47
45
Oregon
-11.02
7
3
78
144
48
41
Wofford
-11.01
9
3
18
293
49
61
Toledo
-10.93
10
1
21
265
50
31
Arizona
-10.89
7
4
128
32
51
39
Houston
-10.74
10
0
41
254
52
46
Northwestern
-10.69
7
3
96
106
53
64
San Diego
-10.44
9
3
50
170
54
51
Penn State
-10.23
5
5
193
11
55
43
Arkansas
-10.16
7
2
44
264
56
67
LSU
-10.08
8
3
91
112
57
82
Notre Dame
-10.01
7
3
118
109
58
52
Saint Mary's
-9.872
7
5
114
67
59
49
Liberty
-9.817
9
2
7
346
60
60
St. John's
-9.464
10
0
48
229
61
63
Rutgers
-9.191
5
5
167
26
62
72
New Mexico State
-9.08
7
2
83
239
63
98
Loyola Marymount
-8.928
10
1
27
272
64
74
Fresno State
-8.875
7
2
61
238
65
69
Vanderbilt
-8.869
6
2
81
213
66
58
VCU
-8.812
7
4
170
37
67
97
Rhode Island
-8.811
5
3
102
83
68
76
Xavier
-8.783
7
4
165
43
69
71
Colorado
-8.738
8
1
31
246
70
87
Pittsburgh
-8.585
8
3
65
237
71
59
Syracuse
-8.583
7
3
138
115
72
77
Clemson
-8.568
7
3
147
96
73
56
Yale
-8.518
5
3
130
29
74
75
Vermont
-8.477
8
3
90
78
75
81
Seton Hall
-8.47
7
3
172
52
76
53
UNC Greensboro
-8.424
10
2
23
282
77
80
Washington
-8.418
7
4
202
23
78
62
Dayton
-8.394
5
5
190
40
79
105
Hofstra
-8.213
8
3
52
209
80
90
Furman
-8.186
12
0
11
344
81
66
Northern Colorado
-8.133
6
2
20
314
82
68
Georgia Southern
-8.121
7
3
59
206
83
70
Oregon State
-8.092
6
3
85
138
84
73
Davidson
-7.988
8
2
119
131
85
79
Minnesota
-7.977
9
2
146
84
86
78
Miami
-7.955
5
4
115
134
87
128
South Dakota State
-7.943
9
4
33
301
88
106
Austin Peay
-7.854
6
4
29
236
89
86
The Citadel
-7.847
8
2
25
326
90
99
Saint Louis
-7.78
7
3
168
63
91
65
Stanford
-7.757
5
4
195
16
92
100
Texas State
-7.367
10
1
22
315
93
84
Connecticut
-7.283
8
3
99
249
94
110
DePaul
-7.135
7
2
76
261
95
95
BYU
-7.133
8
5
95
204
96
131
Baylor
-7.013
6
3
103
187
97
91
Ball State
-6.99
6
4
135
60
98
83
East Tennessee State
-6.955
8
4
60
227
99
114
UC Irvine
-6.942
10
2
75
196
100
94
Penn
-6.908
9
2
54
271
101
89
Temple
-6.876
9
2
136
107
102
92
Alabama
-6.847
6
3
199
65
103
113
Illinois
-6.839
4
7
248
13
104
120
Old Dominion
-6.689
8
3
84
225
105
85
West Virginia
-6.685
6
4
171
120
106
115
Providence
-6.639
8
3
162
143
107
101
Oklahoma State
-6.62
4
6
217
12
108
102
Northeastern
-6.58
5
6
225
6
109
104
Harvard
-6.263
4
5
173
5
110
122
Loyola-Chicago
-6.263
6
5
166
128
111
93
Northern Kentucky
-6.253
9
3
46
297
112
119
San Diego State
-6.207
6
4
123
171
113
108
North Texas
-6.144
10
1
14
352
114
88
Southern Illinois
-5.957
7
5
183
74
115
111
Holy Cross
-5.898
6
4
189
31
116
127
Marshall
-5.826
7
4
145
103
117
116
Jacksonville State
-5.792
6
4
62
153
118
107
Akron
-5.578
6
4
58
328
119
140
Utah Valley
-5.311
8
4
89
179
120
112
Kent State
-5.301
8
2
93
233
121
153
Charleston
-5.298
9
2
104
199
122
123
Massachusetts
-5.227
6
5
178
151
123
117
UC Santa Barbara
-5.186
8
2
42
310
124
130
Rider
-5.098
4
3
126
117
125
135
Drake
-5
6
2
121
173
126
137
Radford
-4.968
6
4
87
166
127
142
USC
-4.93
5
5
244
72
128
118
Samford
-4.795
9
2
73
288
129
96
Gardner-Webb
-4.752
7
5
45
290
130
125
Lehigh
-4.598
6
3
129
95
131
152
Colgate
-4.549
8
4
92
175
132
134
Saint Joseph's
-4.517
5
5
187
100
133
139
Tulsa
-4.473
9
3
191
190
134
155
Louisiana Tech
-4.458
9
3
63
306
135
109
Stony Brook
-4.354
10
2
86
203
136
121
American
-4.327
5
3
106
158
137
103
Georgetown
-4.265
7
3
197
146
138
124
Georgia State
-4.241
7
4
229
27
139
151
Memphis
-4.129
5
5
255
54
140
133
Boston College
-4.065
8
2
155
274
141
141
IUPUI
-4.062
8
3
79
295
142
129
Wichita State
-3.99
6
4
260
80
143
159
UNLV
-3.963
5
4
218
186
144
126
Abilene Christian
-3.873
9
2
35
343
145
148
Missouri
-3.849
6
3
212
141
146
138
Boston University
-3.806
7
5
107
155
147
160
Dartmouth
-3.739
8
5
108
226
148
169
Green Bay
-3.645
6
6
186
99
149
165
NJIT
-3.62
11
2
94
235
150
149
Mercer
-3.618
4
6
101
245
151
167
Texas A&M
-3.604
4
4
215
122
152
147
South Florida
-3.565
7
2
143
294
153
150
Brown
-3.525
7
4
117
230
154
156
Central Michigan
-3.488
8
2
47
289
155
157
Georgia
-3.474
5
4
154
241
156
154
UL Monroe
-3.321
5
4
125
150
157
185
Presbyterian
-3.268
6
5
66
325
158
132
Grand Canyon
-3.191
5
5
206
195
159
183
Western Michigan
-3.176
5
5
160
125
160
162
Southern Utah
-3.108
5
3
64
296
161
168
Duquesne
-3.054
8
2
164
259
162
158
Seattle
-2.92
9
3
74
348
163
172
Ohio
-2.902
7
3
196
198
164
145
South Carolina
-2.854
4
5
226
137
165
163
Miami (OH)
-2.833
6
5
132
212
166
143
Marist
-2.702
4
5
188
50
167
136
Western Kentucky
-2.618
5
5
230
59
168
210
Troy
-2.516
5
5
153
222
169
198
SMU
-2.364
7
4
180
270
170
213
Bucknell
-2.354
4
4
181
160
171
146
Weber State
-2.32
5
5
184
207
172
144
Coastal Carolina
-2.311
6
5
80
300
173
180
CS Fullerton
-2.183
3
8
203
102
174
170
Winthrop
-2.171
5
4
69
298
175
173
Wright State
-2.098
5
6
174
219
176
176
Montana
-1.868
5
3
122
278
177
171
Florida Atlantic
-1.779
7
3
97
324
178
186
Hartford
-1.591
5
7
235
164
179
194
Southern Miss
-1.561
7
3
38
351
180
184
Washington State
-1.264
5
3
111
337
181
209
Florida International
-1.197
8
2
70
347
182
166
Bowling Green
-1.196
6
5
139
250
183
177
Louisiana
-1.145
7
4
169
242
184
190
Campbell
-1.111
5
4
127
285
185
179
North Florida
-1.1
5
7
246
49
186
182
St. Francis (PA)
-1.017
3
6
285
10
187
193
Northern Illinois
-0.966
5
4
116
312
188
203
Boise State
-0.965
4
6
177
221
189
175
Central Connecticut
-0.806
5
6
213
130
190
191
Drexel
-0.702
6
5
156
275
191
174
Bradley
-0.454
7
4
175
269
192
205
Charleston Southern
-0.312
4
6
149
256
193
195
UMass Lowell
-0.307
6
7
185
189
194
208
Delaware
-0.293
8
4
141
276
195
197
Appalachian State
-0.124
4
6
158
232
196
188
Utah
-0.026
4
5
280
101
197
226
Western Illinois
0.0974
4
7
140
262
198
187
Fort Wayne
0.1538
6
7
239
147
199
201
Fordham
0.1559
8
3
134
341
200
206
Cornell
0.1582
4
5
194
180
201
202
Sacred Heart
0.1618
4
6
182
183
202
211
Sacramento State
0.2069
6
2
40
353
203
207
George Mason
0.2502
5
6
267
178
204
181
UT Rio Grande Valley
0.2981
7
5
238
104
205
224
Omaha
0.4089
4
7
251
57
206
250
Grambling
0.5109
5
6
152
228
207
234
Oakland
0.6195
5
7
208
255
208
215
Pepperdine
0.6265
6
5
179
284
209
223
St. Bonaventure
0.6327
4
6
227
273
210
199
Northern Iowa
0.7137
4
6
294
114
211
216
Cal Baptist
0.754
5
5
131
316
212
240
High Point
0.8108
5
5
237
169
213
245
LIU Brooklyn
0.8427
5
5
222
181
214
212
Indiana State
0.8448
6
3
198
257
215
259
CSU Bakersfield
0.869
6
4
148
279
216
241
New Mexico
0.8902
5
4
277
121
217
221
Long Beach State
0.9213
3
9
305
17
218
225
North Dakota State
0.9404
4
7
291
48
219
178
Hampton
0.956
4
7
109
327
220
248
Jacksonville
1.0479
7
5
120
319
221
273
UAB
1.0528
6
4
243
218
222
164
Portland State
1.089
5
5
163
321
223
267
UTEP
1.1973
4
5
231
266
224
222
Wake Forest
1.2713
5
3
210
291
225
219
UIC
1.2728
4
7
271
92
226
218
Evansville
1.2782
5
5
216
258
227
229
Nicholls
1.3038
5
5
233
127
228
189
Prairie View A&M
1.3504
1
9
302
1
229
217
St. Francis (BKN)
1.3862
7
4
159
287
230
244
South Dakota
1.3947
6
5
151
329
231
238
South Alabama
1.4147
5
5
220
260
232
233
Niagara
1.5216
5
4
252
177
233
260
Eastern Illinois
1.5405
6
5
224
193
234
230
Valparaiso
1.5518
6
4
142
330
235
242
Texas Southern
1.6436
4
6
292
19
236
200
California
1.6473
4
5
320
154
237
237
Pacific
1.6622
9
4
161
313
238
239
Eastern Michigan
1.8267
5
5
241
231
239
214
Howard
1.8377
6
5
144
307
240
192
Lamar
1.8862
4
6
200
202
241
196
UNC Wilmington
1.8903
4
7
299
105
242
204
Norfolk State
1.9048
4
8
236
223
243
161
UMBC
1.9089
6
6
201
277
244
228
Detroit Mercy
1.9177
3
8
322
14
245
246
Missouri State
1.9187
4
6
287
94
246
300
Florida Gulf Coast
1.9291
4
8
264
132
247
255
New Orleans
1.9788
4
4
133
345
248
227
Army
1.9929
5
7
253
152
249
253
Wagner
2.0437
4
5
232
201
250
235
Central Arkansas
2.0549
4
6
245
139
251
258
Houston Baptist
2.0677
3
5
276
68
252
256
Columbia
2.0853
3
7
204
286
253
257
Hawaii
2.1522
6
4
192
334
254
251
Eastern Kentucky
2.159
6
5
269
184
255
270
North Carolina A&T
2.2001
4
6
265
111
256
272
Illinois State
2.276
7
5
272
216
257
236
Quinnipiac
2.3653
4
5
268
113
258
232
East Carolina
2.4074
6
4
223
331
259
269
Fairfield
2.5633
2
9
284
73
260
263
Southeast Missouri State
2.5811
5
6
207
267
261
231
Tennessee State
2.6487
3
6
176
299
262
249
William & Mary
2.6614
4
7
274
116
263
264
Princeton
2.6892
5
4
205
308
264
254
Loyola (MD)
2.8735
4
7
257
124
265
243
Little Rock
2.8781
5
6
211
320
266
268
Siena
2.94
4
6
301
53
267
247
Cleveland State
2.9435
4
8
261
194
268
262
UMKC
2.9892
4
8
266
133
269
252
North Carolina Central
3.1758
4
8
228
217
270
265
Arkansas State
3.4146
4
6
275
149
271
293
Morehead State
3.492
3
7
282
162
272
261
North Dakota
3.501
6
5
112
349
273
282
Chattanooga
3.538
5
7
242
263
274
220
Richmond
3.6625
4
6
259
322
275
277
Tulane
3.6831
3
6
314
161
276
271
Fairleigh Dickinson
3.7368
4
5
240
292
277
280
James Madison
3.7976
7
5
214
309
278
292
Albany
3.9682
3
8
256
253
279
309
North Alabama
3.9945
3
8
262
182
280
304
UT San Antonio
4.0368
3
7
297
165
281
284
Idaho State
4.0556
4
3
221
283
282
274
UT Arlington
4.0657
3
7
295
148
283
287
Alabama State
4.1686
2
6
317
35
284
279
Longwood
4.3105
8
4
113
350
285
276
South Carolina State
4.3453
2
11
300
42
286
288
Iona
4.4634
2
7
309
76
287
281
Alcorn State
4.5124
4
6
234
251
288
290
Florida A&M
4.6792
3
8
278
118
289
283
Colorado State
4.7327
5
6
290
280
290
294
Sam Houston State
4.7783
3
7
250
224
291
278
Bethune-Cookman
4.7808
4
8
263
247
292
266
Wyoming
4.783
3
7
319
192
293
285
Texas A&M-CC
4.7945
4
5
219
340
294
295
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
4.8264
3
7
326
18
295
289
Robert Morris
4.8617
4
7
254
220
296
297
Morgan State
4.917
4
5
304
110
297
275
VMI
5.0183
5
7
258
244
298
298
UT Martin
5.131
4
4
209
332
299
302
Cal Poly
5.1833
3
6
283
316
300
286
Western Carolina
5.1839
3
9
307
98
301
308
Milwaukee
5.3133
4
8
298
185
302
296
Air Force
5.3708
4
6
273
281
303
299
Denver
5.3892
4
8
296
157
304
291
UC Davis
5.4718
3
7
316
126
305
314
Towson
5.5402
3
7
288
211
306
315
Canisius
5.7176
3
6
325
81
307
313
Santa Clara
5.7195
5
6
249
336
308
301
South Carolina Upstate
5.7523
3
8
289
208
309
307
Middle Tennessee
5.7618
3
8
339
47
310
316
McNeese
6.0041
3
7
270
243
311
323
Youngstown State
6.2707
4
8
281
240
312
319
Eastern Washington
6.2714
1
8
342
2
313
317
Saint Peter's
6.4622
2
8
328
79
314
320
Maine
6.5229
2
10
321
66
315
303
Idaho
6.5681
3
7
247
339
316
312
SE Louisiana
6.9084
4
5
312
176
317
310
Montana State
7.1156
3
6
331
70
318
321
Northern Arizona
7.1755
2
6
293
174
319
305
Portland
7.1884
6
6
279
318
320
337
Oral Roberts
7.4481
4
9
303
200
321
322
Tennessee Tech
7.622
3
8
311
197
322
325
George Washington
7.6236
3
8
336
167
323
326
CSU Northridge
7.7676
3
7
315
248
324
318
UC Riverside
8.0204
3
8
308
191
325
329
Stephen F Austin
8.0919
5
4
286
333
326
330
Navy
8.1896
3
6
334
136
327
327
Lafayette
8.2195
2
7
327
142
328
331
Stetson
8.2466
2
10
329
86
329
328
Mt. St. Mary's
8.2696
1
9
337
36
330
306
Rice
8.2941
4
7
306
268
331
334
Charlotte
8.4573
2
5
332
163
332
324
Elon
8.6176
3
8
323
304
333
332
New Hampshire
8.7965
2
8
310
234
334
336
Southern
8.9992
1
10
338
38
335
311
Manhattan
9.0938
2
8
330
188
336
335
La Salle
9.1123
0
10
347
46
337
343
Jackson State
9.5648
1
9
333
77
338
333
Binghamton
9.9142
3
8
313
323
339
339
San Jose State
10.029
3
6
318
342
340
348
Kennesaw State
10.506
2
9
343
91
341
340
Monmouth
10.934
0
11
348
30
342
342
Maryland-Eastern Shore
11.754
1
10
346
39
343
349
Northwestern State
11.789
3
8
340
129
344
341
Chicago State
11.913
3
8
341
85
345
338
Savannah State
12.506
3
9
350
34
346
346
Incarnate Word
12.608
5
6
324
338
347
344
Mississippi Valley State
13.211
2
11
349
41
348
345
Bryant
13.407
2
7
345
145
349
347
UNC Asheville
13.698
1
9
351
69
350
351
SIU-Edwardsville
14.158
2
5
335
335
351
350
Coppin State
14.164
0
12
353
9
352
352
Alabama A&M
14.519
0
9
352
64
353
353
Delaware State
16.086
2
8
344
252