Sunday, September 21, 2014

College Football Rankings - 21 Sep

We are now far enough into the season that last year's data can be removed, which caused a few teams to move in ways that seem a little unnatural this week, such as Florida State's drop of a spot despite a win over Clemson on Saturday. Here are my full current rankings, including each team's projected final records:





Record
Proj
SOS
Rank
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
Curr
Overall
1
5
Texas A&M
-39.999
4
0
11
2
22
2
2
10
Georgia
-34.154
2
1
10
3
27
26
3
9
Oklahoma
-31.955
4
0
11
1
20
47
4
2
Baylor
-31.808
3
0
11
1
113
76
5
1
Auburn
-30.697
3
0
9
3
18
1
6
4
Ole Miss
-29.492
3
0
9
3
59
6
7
7
Arkansas
-28.677
3
1
8
4
34
4
8
14
Alabama
-27.151
4
0
8
4
60
7
9
59
North Texas
-26.973
2
2
10
3
57
88
10
11
UCLA
-25.814
3
0
11
2
5
13
11
6
Memphis
-25.318
2
1
10
2
33
83
12
18
Mississippi State
-24.556
4
0
8
4
40
14
13
31
Georgia Southern
-24.172
2
2
9
3
38
108
14
3
Brigham Young
-24.076
4
0
11
1
19
80
15
13
Clemson
-23.329
1
2
9
3
11
58
16
53
Wisconsin
-23.008
2
1
11
2
55
107
17
58
Temple
-21.28
2
1
9
3
30
64
18
16
Louisville
-20.893
3
1
9
3
61
41
19
30
LSU
-20.839
3
1
7
5
48
8
20
26
Utah
-20.831
3
0
9
3
128
45
21
33
South Carolina
-20.727
3
1
8
4
3
3
22
44
Notre Dame
-20.044
3
0
9
3
71
51
23
8
Oregon
-19.796
4
0
10
3
87
59
24
17
West Virginia
-19.789
2
2
8
4
23
28
25
12
Ohio State
-19.15
2
1
9
3
77
69
26
56
Marshall
-19.136
4
0
11
2
105
102
27
21
East Carolina
-18.982
3
1
10
2
43
99
28
75
North Carolina State
-18.046
4
0
10
3
86
72
29
41
Texas
-17.77
1
2
7
5
4
11
30
20
USC
-17.594
2
1
8
4
41
24
31
27
Louisiana Tech
-17.274
2
2
8
4
10
33
32
24
Nebraska
-16.81
4
0
10
2
97
87
33
25
Michigan State
-16.536
2
1
8
4
109
81
34
35
Florida
-15.586
2
1
7
4
45
38
35
39
Virginia
-15.237
2
2
7
5
29
20
36
15
Stanford
-14.587
2
1
6
6
115
34
37
29
Boise State
-13.941
3
1
11
2
35
90
38
37
Florida State
-13.866
3
0
8
4
44
29
39
42
Penn State
-13.853
4
0
10
3
47
65
40
22
Navy
-13.758
2
2
8
4
9
70
41
36
TCU
-13.369
2
0
8
4
117
54
42
52
Tennessee
-12.901
2
1
6
6
12
5
43
43
Miami (FL)
-12.258
2
2
7
5
31
46
44
19
Arizona State
-11.608
3
0
7
5
114
52
45
50
Duke
-11.556
4
0
9
4
127
104
46
28
Virginia Tech
-11.503
2
2
7
5
16
27
47
40
California
-11.498
2
1
7
5
67
44
48
60
Maryland
-11.416
3
1
7
5
78
50
49
73
Georgia Tech
-11.341
4
0
7
5
50
17
50
34
Oklahoma State
-11.267
2
1
6
6
74
32
51
23
Pittsburgh
-11.256
3
1
8
4
15
73
52
67
Kentucky
-11.168
2
1
6
6
89
23
53
70
UAB
-10.25
2
1
6
6
98
37
54
38
Houston
-10.192
2
2
7
5
85
94
55
48
Arizona
-9.8919
4
0
8
4
82
43
56
69
Michigan
-9.5658
2
2
6
6
25
30
57
66
Rutgers
-9.3374
3
1
6
6
81
25
58
49
Kansas State
-9.308
2
1
6
6
64
35
59
61
Middle Tennessee
-9.2912
2
2
7
5
32
75
60
68
Boston College
-9.0137
3
1
7
5
84
55
61
32
Missouri
-8.384
3
1
5
7
103
16
62
55
UTSA
-7.141
1
2
7
5
8
56
63
62
Appalachian State
-7.0798
1
2
8
4
79
121
64
45
Texas State
-6.7862
1
2
8
4
121
115
65
47
Northern Illinois
-6.7632
3
1
11
2
56
125
66
54
Colorado State
-6.7318
2
1
9
3
83
118
67
65
Western Kentucky
-6.2323
1
2
6
6
49
60
68
51
Washington State
-6.0244
1
3
4
8
99
57
69
78
UCF
-5.4557
1
2
6
6
7
77
70
93
Rice
-4.8717
0
3
5
7
1
22
71
77
Minnesota
-4.759
3
1
7
5
70
78
72
107
Western Michigan
-3.7103
2
1
8
4
110
119
73
76
Indiana
-3.6045
2
1
5
7
80
48
74
71
Nevada
-2.2291
2
1
7
6
73
92
75
80
Oregon State
-2.1899
3
0
6
6
119
67
76
46
Cincinnati
-1.5311
2
0
5
7
122
68
77
82
Arkansas State
-1.3148
2
2
7
5
53
112
78
81
Washington
-0.6559
4
0
6
7
125
82
79
108
Old Dominion
-0.4707
3
1
6
6
94
91
80
63
Akron
0.36953
1
2
7
5
37
120
81
57
Syracuse
0.60255
2
1
4
8
123
18
82
79
San Jose State
1.15484
1
2
6
6
6
84
83
105
Fresno State
1.20484
1
3
6
6
17
96
84
83
Northwestern
1.7144
1
2
3
9
95
63
85
86
Louisiana-Lafayette
2.18845
1
3
6
6
14
100
86
87
Utah State
2.22349
2
2
6
7
90
93
87
90
Texas Tech
2.31261
2
1
4
8
54
21
88
95
Illinois
2.76118
3
1
5
7
88
74
89
72
North Carolina
2.99495
2
1
3
9
76
15
90
96
Florida Atlantic
3.15276
1
3
3
9
24
36
91
64
San Diego State
3.47867
1
2
6
6
100
123
92
94
Air Force
3.67216
2
1
6
6
120
117
93
111
Southern Methodist
3.6935
0
3
3
9
2
9
94
74
Bowling Green
3.98948
2
2
7
5
36
114
95
109
Ohio
4.85468
2
2
6
6
58
111
96
102
Buffalo
4.92445
2
2
7
6
92
128
97
113
Southern Miss
5.09449
2
2
3
9
13
10
98
84
Colorado
5.43592
2
2
3
9
91
39
99
112
Purdue
5.71483
2
2
4
8
68
97
100
92
Iowa
5.90143
3
1
5
7
112
89
101
121
Louisiana-Monroe
6.45916
2
1
5
7
72
62
102
98
UTEP
6.6628
2
1
3
9
124
71
103
117
Vanderbilt
6.70826
1
3
2
10
21
12
104
85
Army
6.88875
1
2
5
7
52
116
105
118
Miami (OH)
7.06748
0
4
4
8
42
109
106
106
Wake Forest
7.20392
2
2
3
9
104
40
107
103
South Alabama
7.42111
1
2
4
8
93
61
108
88
Connecticut
7.44632
1
3
3
9
63
79
109
91
Toledo
7.83497
2
2
6
6
39
122
110
100
Wyoming
8.36492
3
1
5
7
66
101
111
101
Florida International
9.38611
1
3
2
10
96
66
112
  99
Hawaii
9.9546
1
3
4
9
106
110
113
122
South Florida
9.98588
2
2
3
9
69
49
114
89
Iowa State
10.0362
1
2
2
10
101
53
115
127
Idaho
10.3928
0
3
3
8
75
98
116
110
Tulane
11.2251
1
3
2
10
107
42
117
97
Ball State
11.4763
1
3
4
8
116
127
118
120
Kansas
12.3488
2
1
3
9
108
31
119
115
Massachusetts
13.1444
0
4
3
9
51
124
120
104
Central Michigan
14.835
2
2
4
8
111
126
121
119
New Mexico State
14.9409
2
2
3
9
126
113
122
124
Tulsa
15.1223
1
2
2
10
28
19
123
114
New Mexico
15.3129
1
2
3
9
102
106
124
116
UNLV
16.0124
1
3
3
10
46
86
125
123
Troy
16.8789
0
4
2
10
62
85
126
126
Georgia State
20.8431
1
3
1
11
118
95
127
125
Kent State
22.769
0
3
1
11
65
105
128
128
Eastern Michigan
23.0891
1
3
2
10
26
103

Texas A&M took over the top spot this week, fresh off their fourth straight blowout victory, and their average margin of victory so far is nearly 44 points per game. The last three games may have been cakewalks, but the next month is a minefield, with 4 straight tough SEC opponents standing in the way. Their strength of schedule for the season ranks #2 overall, so there would be no shame in having a loss or two, though more than that would definitely knock them out of the playoff picture.

Georgia moved up to #2 after a 66-0 shutout of bottom 4 team Troy, even though they lost just last week. The team that beat them, South Carolina, is at #21, and the loss was by only three points on the road, while home field advantage is worth about 5 points, meaning that Georgia is the slightly better team overall. Their big season-opening win over Clemson is also a big help, since the Tigers have been very strong since the loss.

Oklahoma is the top non-SEC team so far this year, winning by an average of 28 points per game, with recent wins over Tennessee and West Virginia, both of which are better than expected this year. Along with #4 Baylor, the Sooners have a big advantage over all of the SEC teams in the top 10, because their overall schedule is much softer, giving them a much smoother road to the playoff.