College Football Rankings - 29 Sep

If the movement among teams in today's version of my rankings seems a little strange, there is a good reason for that. Early in the season, when there is not enough game data to connect all the teams together in order to rank them, I use last season's data as a component in my formula in order to make it all work. Five weeks into the new season, enough new data has been gathered to remove last year's results from the formula, which caused some teams to drop or rise in the opposite direction that you would expect, since last year is no longer propping them up or holding them down. Alabama is the most obvious victim here, dropping to #7 despite a shutout of Ole Miss yesterday. Their strength of schedule took a hit after Texas A&M struggled to beat Arkansas, which is the biggest reason for their drop, and their weak conference schedule will mean that they need big wins every week if they want to regain the top spot this season. Here are my full current rankings, along with each team's predicted final record and odds of finishing undefeated:

Rank	LW	Team	Rec	Rating	Pred	Change	Undef %
1	1	Baylor	3-0	-46.6579	12-0		99.8
2	2	Oregon	4-0	-46.5527	13-0		61.5
3	10	Washington	4-0	-32.9663	10-2	+1	5.5
4	6	Florida State	4-0	-30.454	12-1	+1	18.7
5	7	Louisville	4-0	-29.2003	12-0		83.8
6	27	Stanford	4-0	-28.2081	10-2	+2	3.0
7	3	Alabama	4-0	-28.0624	11-2	-1	12.1
8	21	Utah State	3-2	-25.8524	11-2	+1
9	18	Georgia Tech	3-1	-25.2376	9-3
10	25	Arizona State	3-1	-24.7877	9-4	+1
11	5	Georgia	3-1	-24.1365	8-4	-2
12	30	Mississippi State	2-2	-24.002	8-4	+2
13	8	LSU	4-1	-23.6187	9-3
14	11	Miami (FL)	4-0	-23.4667	10-3	-1	1.3
15	13	Ohio State	5-0	-23.3416	12-1	+1	37.0
16	12	Wisconsin	3-2	-23.2089	9-3	-1
17	28	Florida	3-1	-23.077	8-4	+1
18	24	Clemson	4-0	-21.951	10-2	+1	3.5
19	22	Missouri	4-0	-21.9264	10-3	+2	1.1
20	4	Oklahoma State	3-1	-20.3827	10-2	-1
21	14	UCLA	3-0	-20.3012	7-5	-2
22	23	Arizona	3-1	-20.2637	8-4
23	44	Virginia Tech	4-1	-20.2354	10-2	+3
24	17	Utah	3-1	-20.1106	7-5	-1
25	38	Auburn	3-1	-19.5334	9-3	+2
26	45	Marshall	2-2	-18.6921	11-2	+2
27	16	South Carolina	3-1	-18.0368	8-4	-1
28	31	Texas Tech	4-0	-17.5997	10-2	+2
29	51	Tennessee	3-2	-16.1199	6-6	+1
30	26	Penn State	3-1	-15.0357	8-4
31	47	Navy	2-1	-14.9136	10-2
32	19	UCF	3-1	-14.6457	9-3	-2
33	32	Syracuse	2-2	-14.491	7-5
34	49	Houston	4-0	-14.2118	9-3	+1	0.3
35	9	Texas A&M	4-1	-14.1055	7-5	-2
36	39	USC	3-2	-12.5775	8-5	+1
37	53	Boise State	3-2	-12.325	8-4	+1
38	52	Indiana	2-2	-12.1383	7-5	+1
39	29	Brigham Young	2-2	-12.1168	6-6	-1
40	62	Illinois	3-1	-12.1122	8-4	+2
41	74	East Carolina	3-1	-11.01	9-3	+2
42	20	Ole Miss	3-1	-10.877	7-5	-2
43	56	Washington State	3-2	-10.8531	5-7
44	50	Cincinnati	3-1	-8.9171	8-4	-1
45	48	TCU	2-2	-8.89134	7-5	+1
46	75	Duke	3-2	-8.85655	6-6	+1
47	41	Vanderbilt	3-2	-8.58393	6-6
48	15	Oklahoma	4-0	-8.52098	8-4	-1
49	77	Western Kentucky	3-2	-8.46828	8-4	+1
50	42	Ball State	4-1	-8.46584	10-2
51	63	Ohio	3-1	-7.97666	11-2	+2
52	54	North Texas	2-2	-7.85698	9-4
53	46	Nebraska	3-1	-7.33474	8-5
54	66	Virginia	2-2	-7.11182	5-7
55	83	Pittsburgh	3-1	-6.61606	6-6	+2
56	43	Maryland	4-0	-6.43528	8-4
57	37	Northwestern	4-0	-6.21769	8-4
58	57	Wyoming	3-2	-6.12607	8-4
59	71	Kentucky	1-3	-5.80807	3-9
60	36	North Carolina	1-3	-5.70292	5-7	-3
61	61	Iowa	4-1	-5.06845	8-4	+2
62	68	Memphis	1-2	-4.31446	7-5	+1
63	84	Arkansas State	2-3	-3.57631	7-5	+1
64	40	Bowling Green	4-1	-3.54978	9-3	-1
65	87	Troy	2-3	-2.93588	6-6
66	64	Toledo	2-3	-2.83211	7-5
67	73	Rutgers	3-1	-2.58303	8-4	+1
68	99	Texas State	3-1	-2.1573	8-4	+2
69	101	South Alabama	2-2	-1.32378	7-5	+2
70	86	Northern Illinois	4-0	-1.24753	11-2	+2	2.8
71	69	Louisiana-Lafayette	2-2	-0.7199	7-5	-1
72	55	Oregon State	4-1	-0.31045	5-7	-1
73	88	Arkansas	3-2	0.932289	3-9
74	58	Rice	2-2	0.977024	8-4
75	93	Tulane	3-2	1.449731	7-5	+3
76	79	Fresno State	4-0	1.459353	10-3	+1
77	34	Michigan	4-0	2.253461	6-6	-3
78	33	Texas	2-2	2.293843	4-8	-2
79	70	Minnesota	4-1	2.394935	6-6
80	72	Middle Tennessee	3-2	2.549692	7-5	-1
81	90	San Jose State	1-3	2.793412	6-6	+1
82	91	Boston College	2-2	2.805346	5-7	+1
83	82	North Carolina State	3-1	3.07684	5-7
84	96	Buffalo	2-2	3.867919	7-5	+1
85	60	Kansas State	2-2	3.913647	5-7	-1
86	81	Florida Atlantic	1-4	4.053467	5-7	-1
87	103	California	1-3	4.181637	2-10
88	85	UAB	1-3	4.927699	5-7
89	65	UTSA	2-3	5.981803	5-7	-2
90	35	Notre Dame	3-2	6.561323	4-8	-4
91	59	Michigan State	3-1	6.828511	5-7	-2
92	100	Army	2-3	7.100016	5-7
93	80	Wake Forest	2-3	7.415344	3-9	-1
94	95	Nevada	3-2	8.155593	6-6	+1
95	78	Louisiana-Monroe	2-3	8.301222	4-8	-3
96	107	West Virginia	3-2	8.644086	5-7	+2
97	89	Colorado	2-1	9.201917	3-9	+1
98	76	Colorado State	2-3	10.05674	5-8	-1
99	97	Kansas	2-1	10.25976	4-8
100	102	Akron	1-4	10.43159	4-8
101	98	Kent State	2-3	11.64379	4-8
102	114	Iowa State	1-2	12.09577	2-10	+1
103	117	Air Force	1-4	13.80971	4-8	+2
104	92	Southern Methodist	1-3	13.81128	3-9	-1
105	112	UNLV	3-2	14.09457	5-7	+1
106	106	Hawaii	0-4	14.90942	2-10	-1
107	108	Temple	0-4	16.3553	1-11	-1
108	120	Miami (OH)	0-4	16.59797	3-9	+2
109	110	Louisiana Tech	1-4	16.94115	4-8
110	115	Eastern Michigan	1-3	17.43929	3-9	+1
111	105	New Mexico	1-3	18.04965	3-9	-2
112	94	Purdue	1-4	19.00203	1-11	-1
113	122	Idaho	1-4	20.23304	3-9	+2
114	67	Tulsa	1-3	20.49769	2-10	-5
115	111	San Diego State	1-3	20.63312	3-9	-1
116	104	Connecticut	0-4	21.63089	1-11	-2
117	109	UTEP	1-3	21.83443	3-9
118	119	Massachusetts	0-4	23.2421	2-10
119	118	Southern Miss	0-4	23.25711	1-11
120	113	Western Michigan	0-5	26.60107	1-11	-2
121	121	South Florida	0-4	27.31411	0-12
122	116	Central Michigan	1-4	28.48216	2-10	-1
123	123	Florida International	0-4	33.14088	0-12
124	124	New Mexico State	0-5	37.34708	0-12	-1
125	125	Georgia State	0-4	38.3354	0-12

Washington was a big mover this week, thanks to a very impressive start, which includes a blowout of Boise State, Illinois' only loss, and a solid win over a tough Arizona team. With all due respect to the SEC West, the Huskies have the misfortune of playing in the toughest division in college football, the Pac 12 North, where they must face Stanford and Oregon in the next two weeks, both of which are in my top 6. Whichever teams wins that division should be part of the final BCS title game.

Stanford lost more players to graduation last year than almost any other team in the country, which led to their low showing in my rankings for the first several weeks, since they were basically starting over at almost every position. The Cardinal have proven that their success is due to the system, not the players in it, by winning each of their first 4 games by at least 14 points, which will be a tough feat to replicate when they host Washington next week.

Oklahoma State looked like they had the potential to be a national title contender through 3 games, but they ended that speculation yesterday when they allowed West Virginia to control the entire game in Morgantown. The Mountaineers were shut out by Maryland last week, so nobody expected them to beat a (supposedly) much tougher Cowboy team, but it happened, and now the Big 12 looks like it belongs to Baylor.

Virginia Tech is making an appearance in my top 25 this week after beating Georgia Tech on the road, a game that I thought wouldn't be close, but in the other direction. The Hokies' only loss is to Alabama, which is excusable, and since then they have won 4 straight against steadily improving competition. They have a shot at making the ACC title game, but they will have to go through Miami to get there.