Friday, December 31, 2010

NBA MVP Rankings - 31 Dec

It's the last day of the year, and there are some familiar faces leading each of the awards heading into the year 2011. A player's previous ranking is in parentheses following his season stats.

Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James - MIA - 24.4 pts, 6.7 reb, 7.3 ast (1)
LeBron was the Player of the Day for his Christmas Day triple-double against the Lakers, which he followed up with a double-double against the streaking Knicks. The Heat have now won 16 of 17, and James has been their best player so far this year, although Dwyane Wade is coming up fast in his rearview mirror.

2. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 24.5 pts, 4.2 ast, 6.5 reb (4)
Wade returned with a vengeance from his sore knee this week, notching back-to-back 40 point games and earning Player of the Day honors for both performances. The Heat's winning streak started when Wade started playing well again, which will give him a lot of weight with voters if the Heat remain red-hot for the rest of the season.

3. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 24.1 pts, 7.4 ast, .545 FG% (2)
Nowitzki scored 13 points in only 12 minutes before injuring his knee against the Thunder. With Nowitzki sitting on the bench in a suit, the Mavericks lost back-to-back games for just the second time this season. Only D-Wade's amazing week was enough to knock Dirk down a spot after a week when he showed just how valuable he is to the Mavs.

4. Kevin Durant - OKC - 28.1 pts, 6.4 reb, 3.1 ast (7)
Durant averaged 33 points, including 44 on Christmas Day against the Nuggets, to boost his league-leading average above 28 per game, and led the Thunder to wins over Denver and New Jersey and a close game against the second-place Mavericks. Durant is now completely back to form and the unquestioned leader of the Thunder.

5. Pau Gasol - LAL - 18.9 pts, 11.0 reb, 2.0 blk (3)
Gasol's downturn in productivity continued this week, as he averaged only 12 points per game, and the Lakers struggles also continued, as they lost to the Heat and Spurs, two of the primary contenders to take away their title this year. Gasol must return to form for the Lakers to rebound and defend their championship.

6. Derrick Rose - CHI - 24.0 pts, 8.5 ast, 1.2 stl (6)
Rose put together another respectable week, including 23 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists against the Pistons, but losing to the New York Knicks on Christmas cost him a chance to move up in the rankings. With Gasol and the Lakers struggling, he could make his move next week.

7. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 25.1 pts, 5.0 reb, 4.5 ast (5)
Kobe still seemed a little off his game this week, averaging less than 20 points while the Lakers went 1-2 against some of the toughest teams in the league. With both Gasol and Bryant struggling, the Lakers don't have a leader to give them a realistic chance at the title. If both can turn it around, they'll be tough to beat.

8. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 22.3 pts, 8.1 ast, 2.1 stl (8)
Kevin Durant's resurgence has relegated Westbrook to playing second fiddle for the Thunder again, but he seems to be adjusting to it just fine, and the handoff of power didn't seem to affect the direction of Oklahoma City's season. They were lucky Westbrook was there to hold down the fort while Durant got his rhythm back.

9. Amare Stoudemire - NYK - 26.4 pts, 9.1 reb, 2.3 blk (9)
Amare put together another pair of 30 points games this week, and moved into second place among the league scoring leaders, but the Knicks lost both of their road games in Florida, despite his best efforts. Amare has proven he is one of the best players in the league, and he has turned the Knicks around faster than anybody expected, but they are still not championship caliber.

10. Deron Williams - UTA - 22.3 pts, 9.4 ast, 1.2 stl (10)
Williams scored 31 points in a loss to the Trail Blazers this week, and mildly injured his wrist in the same game, and it has showed in the past two games, both of which were a bit below his averages for the season. It doesn't appear to be serious, so he should recover this week.

Trying to crash the New Year's Party:

Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Al Horford, Carlos Boozer

Rookie of the Year

1. Blake Griffin - LAC - 21.5 pts, 12.4 reb, 3.2 ast (1)
The double-double streak now stands at 20, and the past 9 games in that streak have all included at least 20 points. Griffin is currently one of the 10 best players in the entire league, and an All-Star Game without him would not be a true showcase of the best the league has to offer.

2. Landry Fields - NYK - 10.0 pts, 7.5 reb, 1.0 stl (2)
Fields played very well in the Knicks' Christmas Day win over Chicago, putting up 14 points and 11 rebounds for his second straight double-double, but scored a total of only 3 points on the Florida road trip that ended with 2 losses. He's a good rookie, but average overall.

3. John Wall - WAS - 15.4 pts, 8.6 ast, 2.0 stl
Wall returned from his knee injury this week, and his minutes and production gradually increased throughout the week. His shooting percentage this week was only 28.6%, which will have to improve if he hopes to become the full-time starter for the Wizards.

4. DeMarcus Cousins - SAC - 11.5 pts, 7.7 reb, 1.5 ast (3)
Cousins' punishment for his choking gesture against the Warriors appears to be over, as evidenced by his 21 points and 16 rebounds in 37 minutes against the Grizzlies two nights ago. If he can mature a little bit, I can see him being a very solid producer for a long time, but it's up to him.

5. Eric Bledsoe - LAC - 7.3 pts, 4.4 ast, 1.0 stl (4)
Bledsoe's role with the Clippers seems to be diminishing, as you can see by looking at the 10 points he scored over 3 games this week, and it may be partly due to shooting only 3 for 16 in those 3 games. It may not be long before Gary Neal, Evan Turner, or Wesley Johnson pass him and join the top 5 rookies.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Jason Terry - DAL - 15.6 pts, 4.6 ast, 1.5 stl (2)
Terry was expected to carry more of the load with Nowitzki out, but he only managed to score 8 points in the Mavericks' loss to San Antonio yesterday. His move to #1 happened because Wilson Chandler has become a starter in New York, not because of an increase in production.

2. Antawn Jamison - CLE - 14.8 pts, 5.7 reb, 1.4 ast (3)
Jamison averaged 21 points per game this week, but the results didn't change for the Cavaliers, who have lost 5 in a row and 15 of their last 16 games. Jamison has been one of the few bright spots for Cleveland since the exodus of LeBron.

3. Gilbert Arenas - ORL - 15.5 pts, 5.5 ast, 1.4 stl
Arenas has been coming off the bench since his trade from the Wizards, and although he is only averaging 10 points per game since then, his scoring is the only thing that is down. It remains to be seen if he can actually play a full season, something he hasn't come close to doing since 2007.

4. Daniel Gibson - CLE - 13.7 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.0 ast (4)
Gibson scored in double figures in both games he played this week, but he left the Cavaliers' game against Charlotte with a thigh contusion, and it's unclear how long he'll be out or whether he will even miss any time.

5. Nick Young - WAS - 15.1 pts, 2.3 reb, .394 3P%
Young's time on this list will be short-lived, as he became a starter after Gilbert Arenas was traded away. He has scored over 20 points in 6 of the last 8 games for Washington, and is finally showing the promise that made him a first-round pick in 2007.

Most Improved Player

1. Dorell Wright - GSW - 15.7 pts, 6.2 reb, 3.1 ast (1)
Despite setting new career highs in every category, including a jump of 7.8 in scoring average, Wright continues to be overlooked by many of the experts. For example, he is not even mentioned in ESPN's Awards Watch column. Maybe his 32 points and 11 rebounds against Atlanta will make someone take notice.

2. D.J. Augustin - CHA - 13.6 pts, 5.9 ast, .907 FT% (3)
New coach, new D.J. Since Paul Silas took over coaching duties in Charlotte, Augustin has scored 27 and 28 points in consecutive games while shooting 69% from the field. That's pretty impressive for a point guard, especially one who had only scored 20 once so far in the month of December.

3. Kevin Love - MIN - 20.8 pts, 15.5 reb, 2.4 ast (2)
Love has extended his double-double streak to 19 games, just one behind the Clippers' Blake Griffin, and continues to lead the league in rebounds. In my opinion, Love is now the best forward in the Western Conference, even with Durant, Nowitzki, Griffin, and Gasol included.

4. Daniel Gibson - CLE - 13.7 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.0 ast (4)
Gibson is a contender for two major awards this year, but it appears that there is too much competition for him to achieve both. His best chance may be if he becomes a starter, in which case he won't win the Sixth Man, but he'll improve his odds at earning the Most Improved Player.

5. Eric Gordon - LAC - 23.8 pts, 4.6 ast, 3.3 reb
Many people do not realize this, but Gordon is actually the Clippers' leading scorer, even though you hear so much more about Blake Griffin. In LA's win over Sacramento on Monday, Gordon scored 31 points and hit 6 of 7 3-pointers, both of which are becoming more commonplace for the former Hoosier.

NBA Player of the Day

Dwight Howard - ORL - 24 pts, 18 reb, 8-19 FG, 8-13 FT
While his shooting percentages weren't exemplary, he took care of business in the paint as the Magic were able to avoid being upset by the Knicks and Amare Stoudemire, who scored 30 points in the game. Howard did pick up his 12th technical foul of the season, which leads the league, so he needs to be careful not to pick up #13 and the suspension that accompanies it.

Predictions - 31 Dec

Upset picks are in italics.

College Football

South Florida vs. Clemson - Clemson by 6
Notre Dame vs. Miami - Notre Dame by 1
Georgia vs. (25) UCF - Georgia by 5
(20) South Carolina vs. (23) Florida State - Florida State by 4

NBA

Hornets at Celtics - Celtics by 9
Nets at Bulls - Bulls by 13
Wizards at Pacers - Pacers by 6
Warriors at Bobcats - Bobcats by 1
Raptors at Rockets - Rockets by 7
Hawks at Thunder - Thunder by 4
Pistons at Suns - Suns by 5
76ers at Lakers - Lakers by 9

College Basketball

Northwestern at (11) Purdue - Purdue by 13
(12) Kentucky at (20) Louisville - Louisville by 5
(2) Ohio State at Indiana - Ohio State by 14
South Florida at (4) Connecticut - Connecticut by 18
(13) Minnesota at (19) Michigan State - Michigan State by 9
Coppin State at (14) Texas - Texas by 31
North Florida at (17) Kansas State - Kansas State by 22
McNeese State at (18) Texas A&M - Texas A&M by 31
Washington at UCLA - Washington by 8
Hartford at Saint Mary's - Saint Mary's by 28

Prediction Results - 30 Dec

College Football: 0/4 (.000) 44/69 overall (.638)
NBA: 1/3 (.333) 211/292 overall (.723)
College Basketball: 7/7 (1.000) 175/206 overall (.850)



Thursday, December 30, 2010

College Basketball Overrated and Underrated - 30 Dec

These are the five most overrated and underrated teams in college basketball so far this season, based on their standing in the AP poll. Three teams left these rankings this week, and all in the right direction: Florida fell from the AP rankings, and Louisville and Vanderbilt finally got the recognition they deserve. Here are the freshly updated standings, with last week's ranking in parentheses.

Overrated

1. Memphis (1)
2. Minnesota (2)
3. Connecticut
4. Missouri (3)
5. Michigan State (5)

All five of these teams could realistically lose this week, and I'm actually predicting that a minimum of three will. Memphis lost its last game to Georgetown, and a loss tonight to Lipscomb (7-3) is possible, although I would put it at about 35%. Minnesota faces Michigan State in a matchup of two overrated teams tomorrow, and I believe Michigan State will take that game easily. Connecticut is coming off a loss to Pittsburgh, and they are going to South Bend to take on Notre Dame on Tuesday, where I have a 68% chance of an upset happening. Michigan State, after taking care of Minnesota tomorrow, has to face Northwestern, and I would give Northwestern a 65% chance of winning that game. Missouri looks like the safest overrated team this week, with only a 25% chance of losing to Old Dominion tonight.

Underrated

1. Saint Mary's (3)
2. Washington (2)
3. Arizona (1)
4. Belmont
5. Southern Mississippi

Washington is the only one of these five schools with a real chance to impress voters this week, with a game against UCLA (9-4) coming up. Arizona plays Oregon and Oregon State, both of which are in the lower half of the Pac 10. Belmont has played its last ranked team of the season, so they will probably have to go nearly undefeated the rest of the way to even get noticed. Saint Mary's will open some eyes when they destroy Gonzaga later this year.

NBA Player of the Day

Dwyane Wade - MIA - 45 pts, 7 reb, 17-24 FG, 10-10 FT
Wade becomes the first player to win this award on consecutive days after he improved upon his previous day's performance by scoring 45 and hitting over 70% of his field goals and having a perfect night from the free throw line. He became the first player since Kobe in March 2007 to score over 40 points on consecutive days, and helped the Heat become the first team in history to win 10 straight road games in a single month.

Predictions - 30 Dec

Upset picks are in italics.

College Football

Army vs. SMU - SMU by 5
Kansas State vs. Syracuse - Kansas State by 5
North Carolina vs. Tennessee - Tennessee by 5
(18) Nebraska vs. Washington - Nebraska by 12

NBA

Knicks at Magic - Magic by 7
Spurs at Mavericks - Mavericks by 1
Jazz at Trail Blazers - Jazz by 1

College Basketball

Temple at (8) Villanova - Villanova by 10
Old Dominion at (10) Missouri - Missouri by 10
(16) BYU at Buffalo - BYU by 6
Princeton at (21) UCF - UCF by 15
Lipscomb at (22) Memphis - Memphis by 6
Central Michigan at UNLV - UNLV by 27
Arizona at Oregon - Arizona by 15

Prediction Results - 29 Dec

College Football: 1/3 (.333) 44/65 overall (.677)
NBA: 7/11 (.636) 210/289 overall (.727)
College Basketball: 9/10 (.900) 168/199 overall (.844)

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

College Basketball Rankings - 29 Dec

I've updated my college basketball games to include all games through yesterday, December 28. With the Christmas holiday, there were not as many games this week, so the overall movement in the rankings is smaller than normal, but with conference play beginning, there should be some very interesting games starting this week. Team name is followed by this week's record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Ohio State (2-0) (13-0) -25.84 (2)
2. Duke (0-0) (11-0) -24.61 (1)
3. Kansas (1-0) (11-0) -23.23 (4)
4. Washington (1-0) (8-3) -20.83 (3)
5. Purdue (1-0) (12-1) -19.96 (9)
6. Kentucky (2-0) (10-2) -19.49 (7)
7. Pittsburgh (2-0) (13-1) -19.43 (5)
8. Georgetown (1-0) (11-1) -18.99 (8)
9. Vanderbilt (0-0) (9-2) -18.81 (6)
10. Arizona (1-0) (11-2) -18.72 (10)
11. BYU (1-0) (12-1) -18.70 (12)
12. Saint Mary's (1-0) (10-2) -18.65 (17)
13. Louisville (2-0) (11-1) -18.58 (11)
14. Texas (1-0) (10-2) -16.48 (22)
15. Villanova (1-0) (10-1) -16.16 (NR)
16. Butler (3-0) (9-4) -16.03 (23)
17. UNLV (0-0) (11-2) -15.66 (16)
18. North Carolina (1-0) (9-4) -15.51 (NR)
19. San Diego State (1-0) (14-0) -15.33 (15)
20. West Virginia (0-0) (8-2) -15.24 (13)
21. Texas A&M (0-0) (11-1) -14.95 (18)
22. Wisconsin (2-0) (11-2) -14.83 (20)
23. Belmont (0-1) (9-3) -14.56 (25)
24. Syracuse (2-0) (14-0) -14.02 (19)
25. Maryland (1-0) (8-4) -13.97 (NR)

Dropping out:

UCF (1-0) (11-0) -13.43 (14)
Duquesne (0-1) (5-5) -11.17 (24)
Indiana (0-3) (9-5) -7.31 (21)

Ranked teams by conference:

Big East: 6
Big 10: 3
ACC: 3
Big 12: 3
MWC: 3
Pac 10: 2
SEC: 2
WCC: 1
Hor: 1
Atl Sun: 1

The Big East made a big move this week, as did the ACC, while the Big 10 dropped off overall. The Big 10 did, however, claim the top spot with Ohio State's very impressive week and got another top 5 with Purdue's larger-than-expected victory at Michigan.

Saint Mary's moved up this week even though its most recent win, by 20 points over New Mexico State, wasn't anything that impressive. The teams ranked directly in front of them all managed to have off-weeks at the same time, thereby allowing the Gaels to make a strong move.

Texas made a big move after beating Michigan State on the road this week, just 4 days after beating North Carolina, who was able to enter my top 25 this week. The next big game for the Longhorns is January 8, when the overrated Connecticut Huskies come to town.

Villanova joined the rankings this week after a 40-point victory over Monmouth, but with no victories over teams currently in the top 25, they will need to pick up some quality wins in conference play to maintain their standing.

The Butler Bulldogs won the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii over the holiday weekend with consecutive victories over Utah, Florida State, and Washington State, each more impressive than the last. It sure seemed that they would drop off after Gordon Hayward left for the NBA, but they are looking like a probably tournament team who may be able to at least return to the Sweet 16.

North Carolina joined the list of the ranked with a big win over Rutgers in New York City yesterday. They have lost 4 games already this year, and none of the 4 qualifies as a bad loss. They lost to Texas, who is ranked, Vanderbilt, who should be, Illinois, who sits just outside my rankings, and Minnesota, who is ranked nationally, even if I don't think they should be. They are also one of 2 teams who have beaten Kentucky so far this season, so their ranking is not without merit.

Despite not playing this week, West Virginia fell 7 spots in the rankings. There are two good reasons for this. Their close win over Duquesne doesn't look quite as impressive after the Dukes fell at home to George Mason. The other problem is that one of the teams they have lost to, Minnesota, fell in its conference opener to Wisconsin, making the Mountaineers look slightly less strong.

The Belmont Bruins are the only team in my rankings who lost a game in the past week, but they do deserve their ranking. The loss was by one point on the road to the Tennessee Volunteers, who were ranked at the time and are still a good team from a power conference. Take away their road losses to SEC teams from Tennessee, and the Bruins are undefeated.

The Maryland Terrapins enter my rankings just one day after beating NJIT by 39 points, but their next real test doesn't come for another week, when they travel down to North Carolina to take on the undefeated Duke Blue Devils. If they can keep that game close, it will verify to me that they belong in this spot. If not, they will definitely drop back out.

UCF dropped from my rankings because of an underwhelming victory over UMass, coupled with a weak overall schedule. The only ranked team they will face the rest of the way is Memphis, who I have called overrated repeatedly for several weeks.

Indiana fell far from the rankings after being upset twice at the Las Vegas Classic, then losing their first conference game at home to the Penn State Nittany Lions. They looked just as weak over the past 7 days as they looked strong over the week before, and I don't expect to see them back in the rankings or the NCAA Tournament this year.

NBA Player of the Day

Dwyane Wade - MIA - 40 pts, 9 reb, 13-28 FG, 13-16 FT
D-Wade scored 15 of his season-high 40 points in the fourth quarter as he helped the Heat hold off a late New York Knicks rally to win their 15th game in the past 16. This is the 2nd straight time that a Heat player took this honor on the day of their game, after LeBron was Player of the Day after their Christmas Day win over the Lakers.

Predictions - 29 Dec

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Warriors at Hawks - Hawks by 8
Pacers at Wizards - Pacers by 3
Cavaliers at Bobcats - Bobcats by 6
Celtics at Pistons - Celtics by 11
Lakers at Hornets - Lakers by 1
Nuggets at Timberwolves - Nuggets by 6
Nets at Thunder - Thunder by 9
Heat at Rockets - Heat by 5
76ers at Suns - Suns by 3
Grizzlies at Kings - Grizzlies by 6
Jazz at Clippers - Jazz by 4

College Football

East Carolina vs. Maryland - Maryland by 21
Illinois vs. Baylor - Baylor by 1
(14) Oklahoma State vs. Arizona - Arizona by 1

College Basketball

(1) Duke at North Carolina-Greensboro - Duke by 31
Texas-Arlington at (3) Kansas - Kansas by 35
(9) Georgetown at (15) Notre Dame - Notre Dame by 1
Furman at (21) UCF - UCF by 14
(25) Illinois at Iowa - Illinois by 2
Saint John's at West Virginia - West Virginia by 10
North Florida at Maryland - Maryland by 27
Marquette at Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt by 14
Washington at USC - Washington by 4
Mississippi State vs. Saint Mary's - Saint Mary's by 23

Prediction Results - 28 Dec

NFL: 0/1 (.000) 57/96 overall (.594)
College Football: 0/2 (.000) 43/62 overall (.694)
NBA: 6/7 (.857) 203/278 overall (.730)
College Basketball: 4/4 (1.000) 159/189 overall (.841)

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

NFL Rankings - 28 Dec

Due to the postponement of the Vikings-Eagles game from Sunday to Tuesday, my NFL rankings will not include one game from this week, so both teams will have more of a chance to make a move before the final rankings of the regular season come out next week. The team's name is followed by its record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. New England (13-2) -15.23 (1)
2. Green Bay (9-6) -11.64 (2)
3. Pittsburgh (11-4) -8.93 (4)
4. Baltimore (11-4) -7.16 (7)
5. Atlanta (12-3) -6.34 (6)
6. Philadelphia (10-4) -6.14 (5)
7. NY Jets (10-5) -5.02 (8)
8. San Diego (8-7) -4.30 (3)
9. New Orleans (11-4) -3.97 (13)
10. Chicago (11-4) -3.79 (9)
11. Indianapolis (9-6) -2.98 (11)
12. Detroit (5-10) -2.26 (15)
13. Kansas City (10-5) -1.79 (14)
14. NY Giants (9-6) -0.96 (10)
15. Miami (7-8) -0.37 (16)
16. Cleveland (5-10) -0.10 (18)
17. Tennessee (6-9) 0.30 (12)
18. Tampa Bay (9-6) 0.38 (23)
19. Cincinnati (4-11) 0.46 (25)
20. Oakland (7-8) 1.50 (17)
21. Houston (5-10) 3.15 (19)
22. Dallas (5-10) 3.24 (20)
23. Washington (6-9) 3.63 (24)
24. Jacksonville (8-7) 4.147 (21)
25. Minnesota (5-9) 4.154 (26)
26. Buffalo (4-11) 4.27 (22)
27. Saint Louis (7-8) 4.65 (27)
28. San Francisco (5-10) 6.49 (28)
29. Denver (4-11) 9.01 (30)
30. Seattle (6-9) 10.47 (29)
31. Arizona (5-10) 10.77 (31)
32. Carolina (2-13) 12.78 (32)

Baltimore looked strong in its win over the Cleveland Browns, and now they need to root for the Cleveland Browns to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in their next game to give the Ravens a chance at the division title and a first-round bye. Even if they don't win the division, they would most likely play Indianapolis or Jacksonville in the first round, which would still make them a favorite to advance.

Last week, San Diego was looking like the team to beat in the AFC West, but something strange happened on Sunday. Not only did Kansas City win a very tough game against Tennessee, but the Chargers managed to lose to the Cincinnati Bengals, who were still in the hunt for the worst record and the #1 draft pick before the game. Now the Chargers have been eliminated from the playoff picture, and the Chiefs will represent the division and play their first playoff game at home.

New Orleans managed to beat the Atlanta Falcons in Atlanta on Monday Night Football, and in the process kept themselves in the running for the NFC South title and a possible first-round bye. The upset victory was Atlanta's first home loss of the season, as well as its first divisional loss. The defending champions don't look quite as strong as they did last season, but they have now won 7 of their past 8, and their momentum may give them a hand up in the playoffs.

The Detroit Lions won their third straight game this week, after a season in which they had many close calls. The Lions have been the best team with a losing record for many weeks, and they're finally showing that they have been underrated all season long.

The New York Giants looked like the NFC East Champions just two weeks ago, but now they will need some help to even make the playoffs after their second consecutive loss. Because the loss to Green Bay gives the Packers the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Giants must win and hope that the Packers lose to the Bears in their final game, both of which are possible, but still not guaranteed.

Tampa Bay was picked to beat the Seahawks on Sunday, but I definitely didn't expect them to blow out Seattle like they did. The win kept them in the playoff picture, but to earn the final wild card spot, they need to beat the Saints, who still have something to play for, and hope that both Green Bay and the New York Giants lose their final games. I still believe that their winning record is the result of a weak schedule more than improved play.

Cincinnati was very impressive in their huge upset win over the San Diego Chargers, who were still playing for the division title, while the Bengals have had nothing to play for since early November. Maybe having Terrell Owens out of the picture raised morale enough in the locker room that they've been able to perform better on the field.

Jacksonville's overtime loss to the Washington Redskins this week made their playoff hopes dim, although they are still alive. They must beat the Texans on the road and hope that the Colts lose a home game to the slumping Titans. The Jaguars have been one of the most overrated teams all season, and I feel they were lucky to be in the playoff picture at all.

Playoff Predictions

The Patriots have locked up the #1 seed. Pittsburgh will get the #2 seed unless they lose and Baltimore loses. In that case, Pittsburgh could drop all the way to the #6 seed, because they lost to the Jets earlier this year. Kansas City will clinch the #3 seed with a win or a Colts loss. Baltimore will be the #5 seed unless they earn the #2 seed with a win and a Pittsburgh loss. The Jets will be #6 unless Pittsburgh loses, Baltimore wins, and the Jets win. Jacksonville will be the #4 seed if they win and Indianapolis loses, otherwise they are out.

1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas City
4. Indianapolis
5. Baltimore
6. NY Jets

First Round

Jets over Chiefs
Ravens over Colts

Second Round

Steelers over Ravens
Patriots over Jets

Championship

Patriots over Steelers

NFC

The winner of the NFC South will most likely be the #1 seed in the NFC, but if both Atlanta and New Orleans lose and Philadelphia wins both of their remaining games, the Eagles would be #1. If the Falcons, Saints, and Eagles all lose once and the Bears win, they would earn the #1 seed. The rest of the playoff picture is equally complicated, with the only sure thing being that the winner of the Seattle-Saint Louis game will be the #4 seed, and that the #5 seed will be either Atlanta or New Orleans. Green Bay has the tiebreaker over both New York and Tampa Bay for the #6 seed.

1. Atlanta
2. Philadelphia
3. Chicago
4. Saint Louis
5. New Orleans
6. Green Bay

First Round

Packers over Bears
Saints over Rams

Second Round

Packers over Falcons
Eagles over Saints

Championship

Packers over Eagles

Super Bowl

Patriots over Packers

I believe that the wild card teams will win all of their first round games, unless New York or Tampa Bay manage to sneak in, in which case I would pick them to lose. However, the only wild card I would pick to get any farther would be the Packers, who are almost impossible to beat when they are at full health.

NBA Player of the Day

Michael Beasley - MIN - 30 pts, 9 reb, 7 ast, 12-20 FG, 3-4 3P, 3-3 FT
Beasley was able to outplay his fellow Timberwolves forward, Kevin Love, as well as the entire Hornets front line, as he led Minnesota to an upset victory over the New Orleans Hornets. Beasley also hit two 3-pointers in the final 7 minutes of the game to help Minnesota maintain their big lead and put the Hornets away.

Predictions - 28 Dec

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Magic at Cavaliers - Magic by 10
Celtics at Pacers - Celtics by 6
Knicks at Heat - Heat by 12
Bucks at Bulls - Bulls by 9
Raptors at Mavericks - Mavericks by 14
Lakers at Spurs - Spurs by 5
Trail Blazers at Nuggets - Nuggets by 3

NFL

Vikings at Eagles - Eagles by 13

College Football

(22) West Virginia vs. North Carolina State - West Virginia by 1
(12) Missouri vs. Iowa - Missouri by 4

College Basketball

Providence at (5) Syracuse - Syracuse by 16
(11) Purdue at Michigan - Purdue by 5
Coppin State at (12) Kentucky - Kentucky by 35
(13) Minnesota at (24) Wisconsin - Wisconsin by 13

I believe that Minnesota is extremely likely to lose today, while there is also a good chance that another Big 10 rival, Purdue, could also lose their conference opener in an upset.

Prediction Results - 27 Dec

NFL: 0/1 (.000) 57/95 overall (.600)
NBA: 6/10 (.600) 197/271 overall (.727)
College Football: 1/1 (1.000) 43/60 overall (.717)
College Basketball: 4/4 (1.000) 155/185 overall (.838)

Monday, December 27, 2010

NBA Rankings - 27 Dec

Only four teams went undefeated during the week of Christmas, which kept most teams from moving around too much. There were a few very surprising upsets, which made all the difference in who stayed ahead and who fell behind. So here it is, my final NBA ranking of the year 2010. Team name is followed by this week's record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Miami (2-1) (22-9) -8.86 (2)
2. Boston (1-1) (23-5) -7.37 (1)
3. San Antonio (3-1) (26-4) -6.20 (3)
4. Dallas (2-0) (23-5) -5.81 (5)
5. LA Lakers (0-2) (21-9) -4.14 (4)
6. Chicago (3-1) (19-10) -4.01 (7)
7. Orlando (2-2) (18-12) -3.24 (8)
8. Utah (2-0) (21-9) -2.80 (6)
9. New Orleans (2-1) (18-12) -2.35 (10)
10. Oklahoma City (2-1) (21-10) -1.61 (11)
11. Denver (0-3) (16-13) -1.21 (9)
12. Houston (2-0) (14-15) -0.47 (13)
13. Atlanta (2-1) (19-13) -0.23 (15)
14. Portland (1-1) (15-15) 0.27 (17)
15. Memphis (1-1) (13-17) 0.31 (16)
16. New York (2-0) (18-12) 0.44 (20)
17. Philadelphia (1-2) (12-18) 0.68 (12)
18. Milwaukee (2-1) (12-16) 1.25 (19)
19. Indiana (1-1) (13-15) 1.37 (14)
20. Phoenix (0-3) (13-16) 1.56 (18)
21. LA Clippers (2-1) (9-22) 4.19 (23)
22. Golden State (2-1) (11-18) 4.38 (24)
23. New Jersey (1-1) (9-21) 5.14 (25)
24. Detroit (1-1) (10-20) 5.35 (26)
25. Toronto (0-1) (10-19) 5.80 (21)
26. Charlotte (0-2) (9-19) 6.61 (22)
27. Washington (1-2) (7-21) 6.96 (28)
28. Minnesota (1-2) (7-24) 7.15 (27)
29. Sacramento (0-2) (5-22) 8.92 (30)
30. Cleveland (0-3) (8-22) 8.93 (29)

Rising like smoke

Portland jumped three spots this week, but not necessarily because of their own work. They had an impressive win over the Milwaukee Bucks, but their loss to the Warriors, even though it was on the road, does not look good for a team struggling to make the playoffs. They moved up because the teams they passed, Indiana, Memphis, and Philadelphia, all struggled mightily this week, thereby making the Blazers look like monsters by comparison.

The New York Knicks bounced back from their 3-game losing streak with two straight home wins over top 10 teams, the Thunder and the Bulls. Maybe their big winning streak wasn't just a result of the easy schedule. Maybe Amare Stoudemire really did bring a winning attitude to New York. Only time will tell, but for now they look like they're for real.

Falling like snow

Last week I put the Philadelphia 76ers up at #12, despite their losing record overall, mostly due to their recent hot streak. That all changed the next night, when they lost to Chicago by 45 points. Their close loss to the Celtics and a win over the Melo-less Nuggets looked all right, but no good team should ever lose by 45.

The Indiana Pacers, despite some promise early in the season, have been slowly dropping all month long. In fact, they have yet to win two straight games during the entire month of December, and their only chance may be back-to-back games against the Wizards to end the calendar year.

The Toronto Raptors played only one game in the past week, and it sure wasn't the game you would want to be your only memory of a week. They lost by 22 points at home to the Detroit Pistons, who aren't exactly playoff material. They take a road trip to Memphis, Dallas, and Houston this week, so they most likely won't have many good memories of this week either.

Charlotte's two losses this week, by 33 to Washington and by 18 to Oklahoma City, were enough to cost legendary coach Larry Brown his job. This team made the playoffs last year, so the talent is there, but will Paul Silas be able to turn them around in time to avoid missing the playoffs yet again?

Side note
Utah's 2-spot drop this week despite not losing may look strange on paper, but the two wins were over Cleveland and Minnesota, and the average margin of victory in those two wins was only 8 points. Utah is still a quality team, and they will hopefully prove it this week when they take on the surging Trail Blazers and Clippers.

NBA Player of the Day

Rudy Gay - MEM - 30 pts, 8 reb, 5 ast, 5 stl, 11-20 FG, 3-3 3P, 5-5 FT
Gay led the Grizzlies in scoring and filled up most of the stat sheet last night, with a strong night rebounding and 5 steals out of his team's 7 overall. He also hit a 17-foot jump shot with just over 6 minutes left that gave the Grizzlies a 10-point lead that they never relinquished.

Predictions - 27 Dec

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Magic at Nets - Magic by 6
Pistons at Bobcats - Bobcats by 2
Hawks at Bucks - Bucks by 1
Hornets at Timberwolves - Hornets by 7
Mavericks at Thunder - Mavericks by 1
Raptors at Grizzlies - Grizzlies by 8
Wizards at Rockets - Rockets by 10
Trail Blazers at Jazz - Jazz by 6
Clippers at Kings - Clippers by 2
76ers at Warriors - 76ers by 1

NFL

Saints at Falcons - Falcons by 7

College Football

Air Force vs. Georgia Tech - Air Force by 6

College Basketball

Tennessee-Martin at (2) Ohio State - Ohio State by 43
(4) Connecticut at (6) Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh by 9
Northern Illinois at (10) Missouri - Missouri by 24
Morgan State at (25) Louisville - Louisville by 33

I hope that the UConn-Pitt game is a bit of a blowout, because I don't believe that UConn deserves the ranking they have, but if they win, they will most likely earn a spot it my top 10, because Pittsburgh has already shown it's a very solid team.

Prediction Results - 26 Dec

NFL: 7/12 (.583) 57/94 overall (.606)
NBA: 3/7 (.429) 191/261 overall (.732)
College Football: 0/1 (.000) 42/59 overall (.712)

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Predictions - 26 Dec

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Suns at Clippers - Suns by 1
Timberwolves at Cavaliers - Cavaliers by 1
Bulls at Pistons - Bulls by 6
Hawks at Hornets - Hornets by 5
Grizzlies at Pacers - Pacers by 4
Wizards at Spurs - Spurs by 15
76ers at Nuggets - Nuggets by 6

College Football

Florida International vs. Toledo - Toledo by 3

NFL

Patriots at Bills - Patriots by 13
Jets at Bears - Bears by 2
Ravens at Browns - Ravens by 4
Titans at Chiefs - Titans by 1
49ers at Rams - Rams by 3
Lions at Dolphins - Dolphins by 2
Redskins at Jaguars - Jaguars by 4
Chargers at Bengals - Chargers by 9
Texans at Broncos - Texans by 6
Colts at Raiders - Colts by 2
Giants at Packers - Packers by 8
Seahawks at Buccaneers - Buccaneers by 8
Vikings at Eagles - Eagles by 14

NBA Player of the Day

LeBron James - MIA - 27 pts, 11 reb, 10 ast, 4 stl, 8-14 FG, 5-6 3P, 6-6 FT
Not only did James achieve a Christmas Day triple-double in a big win over the defending champion Lakers in Los Angeles, he was also very efficient. He scored 27 points with only 14 field goal attempts, and the Heat showed that they are true championship contenders the day after I named James my current MVP favorite.

Prediction Results - 24/25 Dec

NFL: 0/1 (.000) 50/82 overall (.610)
NBA: 2/5 (.400) 188/254 overall (.740)
College Football: 0/1 (.000) 42/58 overall (.724)
College Basketball: 0/2 (.000) 151/181 overall (.834)


Friday, December 24, 2010

NBA MVP Rankings - 24 Dec

There were a few changes at the top of the MVP rankings this week, with a lot of teams losing long streaks this week, and some players struggling. The new #1 should be a familiar face, but it may not be who you expect. Previous ranking is in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James - MIA - 24.7 pts, 6.5 reb, 7.1 ast (3)
The 2-time defending MVP may be able to pick up a third straight if he keeps up his recent performance level. He scored at least 30 in each of the Heat's 3 wins this week, but only 19 in their loss to Dallas, which ended their 12-game winning streak. He's not the obvious, dominant MVP he has been the past 2 years, but he is a very viable candidate to three-peat.

2. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 24.5 pts, 7.6 reb, .544 FG% (2)
Dirk and the Mavericks may have ended the Heat's winning streak this week, but Dirk's lone 20-point game was that win over Miami. His shooting percentage has taken quite a dip, thanks to his 37% over the past week, but his perfection from the free throw line over the past 5 games has nearly made up for it and kept him up here near the top.

3. Pau Gasol - LAL - 19.6 pts, 11.1 reb, 2.0 blk (1)
Pau failed to reach the 20-point plateau even once this week, and his 15-point performance in a loss to Milwaukee is the biggest reason that he lost his #1 ranking this week. The dropoff is partially due to Andrew Bynum's return, so he may return to the top unless Bynum gets injured yet again.

4. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 23.5 pts, 6.4 reb, 4.3 ast (6)
Wade had scored 20 or more in 11 straight games before sitting out against the Suns because of a sore knee. He is expected to play against the Lakers tomorrow, so the injury doesn't look like it will have any long-term impact on his production.

5. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 25.7 pts, 5.0 reb, 4.6 ast (4)
Kobe scored only 9 points in the Lakers win over Philadelphia this week, which appears to be due to a hurt finger. It does appear to be affecting his shooting, as he failed to make a single 3-pointer all week (0 for 7). Kobe rarely sits out for anything, so this injury could affect his production for a while, and his MVP chances.

6. Derrick Rose - CHI - 24.3 pts, 8.4 ast, 4.4 reb (9)
Rose made a big jump this week after averaging 27 points over 3 games, including 34 points and 8 assists in their close loss to the Clippers and his former coach, Vinny Del Negro. He appears to have fully recovered from his neck soreness, and may be looking to jump into the top 5 next week.

7. Kevin Durant - OKC - 27.5 pts, 6.6 reb, 3.0 ast (7)
Durant matched his average this week with 27.5 points per game over 4 games, but the Thunder managed to lose twice during the week, both in games they should have won. The Thunder are definitely going to make the playoffs, but they don't seem to have made the jump to title contender that many expected.

8. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 22.8 pts, 8.3 ast, 5.0 reb (5)
Westbrook's production was off again this week, with averages of only 19.5 points and 6 assists over four games, which the Thunder split. It now seems that Durant has regained his form from last year, but the Thunder need Westbrook to match his early-season production to make them true contenders.

9. Amare Stoudemire - NYK - 26.4 pts, 9.3 reb, 2.1 blk (8)
Amare's streak of 30-point games may have ended, but his streak of 14 consecutive 20-point games is still intact. The Knicks loss to Cleveland this week was disastrous, but they bounced back well in an upset of the Oklahoma City Thunder, which may have saved Stoudemire's spot in the top 10.

10. Deron Williams - UTA - 22.4 pts, 9.6 ast, 4.0 reb (10)
Williams didn't have his best week, reaching his customary 20-10 just once this week, but the Jazz lost just once, and Williams is obviously their team leader. His line of 10 points and 5 assists in a huge loss to New Orleans hardly looks MVP-worthy, but looking at his season as a whole, he still merits recognition.

Not quite on the nice list: Carmelo Anthony

Rookie of the Year

1. Blake Griffin - LAC - 20.9 pts, 12.4 reb, 3.2 ast (1)
The debate with Griffin isn't really whether or not he'll win the Rookie of the Year award, but whether or not he should be in the All-Star Game. Griffin now has 17 consecutive double-doubles, the last 6 with at least 20 points, so I would say that right now he deserves one of the reserve spots for the West.

2. Landry Fields - NYK - 10.4 pts, 7.5 reb, 1.9 ast (3)
Fields is now the leader in the race for #2 rookie, due mostly to fellow rookie John Wall's lingering knee injury that has caused him to miss 12 games this year. The gap between Fields and Griffin is pretty wide and not likely to shrink, but the Knicks' rookie did pick up a double-double in his last game. Just 16 more in a row to catch Griffin.

3. DeMarcus Cousins - SAC - 11.4 pts, 7.4 reb, 1.4 ast (5)
When Cousins is playing, he puts up decent numbers. The problem is, he is still so immature that disciplinary problems keep causing him problems. He was sent back to the bench following his choking taunt against the Warriors, and ended up with only 2 points and 5 rebounds in the following game.

4. Eric Bledsoe - LAC - 7.7 pts, 4.6 ast, 3.3 reb (4)
Bledsoe only reached double figures in scoring once this week, which may be partially due to the fact that the Clippers actually had a chance to win every game this week. Alongside Griffin and Eric Gordon, the Clippers have a good young nucleus to build around for the future.

5. Wesley Johnson - MIN - 9.3 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.1 ast (NR)
Johnson enters the rookie rankings this week after scoring 14 points in 40 minutes against the Utah Jazz on Wednesday. Like most of the best rookies, he won't be playing in the postseason, but if he can become more consistent, the Timberwolves could be a very scary team in the future.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Wilson Chandler - NYK - 17.3 pts, 6.2 reb, 1.8 ast (1)
This will most likely be Chandler's final week on top of these rankings, but not because of a lack of production. He has started the past 12 games for the Knicks and therefore will be ineligible to win the Sixth Man Award, which leaves the door open for some other very talented bench players, including two former award winners.

2. Jason Terry - DAL - 15.9 pts, 4.4 ast, 1.5 stl (2)
Terry looks more comfortable as a reserve than any other player in the league right now, and has now hit double figures in scoring in 11 straight games. While some won't vote for him because he hasn't scored as much as he did over the past 2 seasons, he will most likely move into the top reserve spot in my rankings next week, right where he belongs.

3. Antawn Jamison - CLE - 14.0 pts, 5.9 reb, 1.5 ast (5)
After spending most of his career as a starter, Jamison has been playing a reserve role for the Cavaliers this year, and he's starting to fit into that role well. He scored 23 points against the Hawks and 21 against the Knicks this week, which moved him ahead of a couple of other contenders on this list.

4. Daniel Gibson - CLE - 13.7 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.0 ast (3)
Gibson is having the most productive season of his career off the bench, which he highlighted this week with 29 points, including 7 of 8 3-pointers, on Monday against Utah. He does show some inconsistency, like his 4 points against Indiana, but he's still done a lot to help Cleveland out in the first season without LeBron.

5. Jamal Crawford - ATL - 14.8 pts, 3.5 ast, 1.8 reb (4)
Crawford has now missed 5 straight games with a back injury, but the Hawks still managed to win 3 of those 5. He may be dropping off the list soon, unless Wilson Chandler's departure helps him hold on.

Most Improved Player

1. Dorell Wright - GSW - 14.6 pts, 6.0 reb, 3.2 ast (1)
Wright shot 50% only once this week, when he scored 17 points in a win over the Sacramento Kings. He's definitely good enough to be a starter, but he needs to improve his shot selection if he wants to become a star player.

2. Kevin Love - MIN - 20.9 pts, 15.6 reb, 2.3 ast (3)
Love's 43 points and 17 rebounds against the Nuggets this week may have been the best game by anyone this year, with the possible exception of his 31 point, 31 rebound game against the Knicks earlier in the year. Love has become a superstar, and it will be a crime is he isn't starting in the All-Star Game.

3. D.J. Augustin - CHA - 12.6 pts, 6.0 ast, 3.3 reb (2)
Augustin had a very down week, scoring in double figures only once and never dishing out more than 4 assists. It will be interesting to see if a new coach can help him get back to where he was when the season began.

4. Daniel Gibson - CLE - 13.7 pts, 3.0 ast, 3.4 reb (NR)
With LeBron out of town, Gibson's playing time has increased dramatically, and he may be able to eventually earn a starting spot with the Cavs if he keeps making his shots. The Cavaliers could desperately use the production, so this is a golden opportunity for him.

5. Paul Millsap - UTA - 17.9 pts, 8.1 reb, 1.6 stl (4)
Millsap had his first double-double of the month against the Timberwolves, finishing the game with 23 points and 11 rebounds in the win. He's looking like a future All-Star at this point, but he's not quite there yet.

NBA Player of the Day

Jared Dudley - PHX - 33 pts, 12 reb, 3 stl, 11-16 FG, 7-10 3P, 4-6 FT
The Suns may have lost to Miami last night, but Dudley certainly wasn't the reason. He set a new career-high for scoring for the second consecutive game and is making a case for a starting job in Phoenix now that Richardson has left town.

Predictions - 24/25 Dec

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Bulls at Knicks - Bulls by 2
Celtics at Magic - Celtics by 2
Heat at Lakers - Heat by 1
Nuggets at Thunder - Thunder by 2
Blazers at Warriors - Blazers by 2

NFL

Cowboys at Cardinals - Cowboys by 8

College Football

Tulsa at (24) Hawaii - Hawaii by 17

College Basketball

(15) Baylor vs. Florida State - Baylor by 1
Washington State vs. Butler - Washington State by 2

The Christmas Day NBA games all look like they will be very close, as do the college basketball games taking place in Hawaii. Baylor may be looking at a second straight upset, and Washington State may finally make a name for itself. Oh, and my formula's bowl perfection is still intact. Merry Christmas!

Thursday, December 23, 2010

College Basketball Overrated and Underrated - 23 Dec

These are the five most overrated and underrated teams in college basketball using this week's AP poll and my rankings as of today as measuring points. The team's previous ranking is in parentheses if applicable.

Overrated

1. Memphis (1)
2. Minnesota (2)
3. Missouri
4. Florida
5. Michigan State

This week's overrated rankings are brought to you by the letter M. Obviously, the voters still haven't noticed that Memphis and Minnesota aren't as good as advertised, but maybe Memphis' game with Georgetown today will change some minds.

Underrated

1. Arizona
2. Washington (3)
3. Saint Mary's
4. Louisville
5. Vanderbilt (5)

The Pac 10 hasn't been able to regain the respect it lost with last year's debacle of a season. Both Arizona and Washington are much better than believed, and Washington State is sitting right outside the top 5 at #7. With conference play starting soon, they may not get the chance to prove their strength until the NCAA Tournament, when I expect they will all be underseeded, which will make them prime upset material.

NBA Player of the Day

Carlos Boozer - CHI - 30 pts, 10 reb, 7 ast, 11-18 FG, 8-11 FT
Boozer led the Bulls in points, rebounds, and assists in their victory over the Washington Wizards on the road. He played the final 7 minutes with 5 fouls, and still managed to hit the layup that clinched the victory with 35 seconds left. The Bulls are 9-3 since he returned from a broken hand, and he's showing that he was worth the wait.

Predictions - 23 Dec

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Spurs at Magic - Spurs by 3
Bucks at Kings - Bucks by 6
Heat at Suns - Heat by 5

College Football

Navy at San Diego State - San Diego State by 7

NFL

Panthers at Steelers - Steelers by 23

College Basketball

Oakland at (2) Ohio State - Ohio State by 21
(9) Georgetown at (17) Memphis - Georgetown by 7
UMKC at (11) Kansas State - Kansas State by 27
Washington State vs. (15) Baylor - Washington State by 1
South Dakota State at (16) Minnesota - Minnesota by 9
Belmont at (18) Tennessee - Tennessee by 4
UTEP at (23) BYU - BYU by 18
Coppin State at Wisconsin - Wisconsin by 29
Saint Mary's at New Mexico State - Saint Mary's by 12

Baylor, Minnesota, and Tennessee should all be on upset alert today, and I wouldn't be surprised to see all 3 go down. Baylor seems the most likely to lose, but Tennessee has been losing to unranked teams constantly for weeks, so a loss to Belmont would be fitting. Minnesota needs a loss to prove to the voters that they are overrated (see above).

Prediction Results - 22 Dec

NBA: 7/9 (.778) 184/246 overall (.748)
College Football: 1/1 (1.000) 41/56 overall (.732)
College Basketball: 16/19 (.842) 142/170 overall (.835)

My formula has been perfect at predicting college football bowl games through fives games this year, but unfortunately I am not. I tried to use logic to say that Northern Illinois would lose their bowl game because they lost their coach, but I should have stuck with the numbers.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

College Basketball Rankings - 22 Dec

There were quite a few upsets in college basketball this week, which caused a lot of movement in the top 25. The teams' name is followed by this week's record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Duke (1-0) (11-0) -24.10 (1)
2. Ohio State (3-0) (11-0) -23.27 (6)
3. Washington (1-0) (7-3) -20.81 (3)
4. Kansas (1-0) (10-0) -20.19 (2)
5. Pittsburgh (1-0) (11-1) -19.51 (8)
6. Vanderbilt (2-0) (9-2) -19.47 (11)
7. Kentucky (1-0) (8-2) -18.51 (4)
8. Georgetown (1-0) (10-1) -18.28 (7)
9. Purdue (2-0) (11-1) -17.72 (14)
10. Arizona (2-0) (10-2) -17.44 (9)
11. Louisville (1-0) (9-1) -17.09 (NR)
12. BYU (1-1) (11-1) -16.71 (5)
13. West Virginia (1-0) (8-2) -16.44 (10)
14. UCF (2-0) (10-0) -15.76 (25)
15. San Diego State (2-0) (13-0) -15.66 (15)
16. UNLV (2-1) (11-2) -15.62 (18)
17. Saint Mary's (1-0) (9-2) -15.39 (12)
18. Texas A&M (2-0) (11-1) -15.207 (24)
19. Syracuse (2-0) (12-0) -15.206 (22)
20. Wisconsin (0-0) (9-2) -14.75 (16)
21. Indiana (2-0) (9-2) -14.43 (NR)
22. Texas (1-0) (9-2) -14.33 (NR)
23. Butler (1-0) (6-4) -14.31 (NR)
24. Duquesne (1-0) (5-4) -14.12 (NR)
25. Belmont (3-0) (9-2) -14.08 (NR)

Dropping out:

Michigan State (1-0) (8-3) -13.99 (17)
Illinois (0-1) (10-2) -13.53 (13)
Kansas State (0-2) (9-3) -12.69 (19)
Temple (1-0) (8-2) -11.63 (20)
Drexel (1-0) (8-1) -10.78 (21)
Boston College (1-0) (9-2) -9.68 (23)

Ranked teams by conference

Big East: 5
Big 10: 4
Big 12: 3
MWC: 3
Pac 10: 2
SEC: 2
ACC: 1
CUSA: 1
WCC: 1
Hor: 1
Atl 10: 1
Atl Sun: 1

The ACC is now the only power conference with only one ranked team, while the Mountain West continues to have three ranked members from a mid-major conference. The ACC's ranked team does happen to be ranked #1, which makes the regular season more of a race for #2 in the ACC. Two of the MWC's top teams were upset this week, so they no longer have a top 10 representative.

Ohio State moved back up to #2 with 3 consecutive blowouts, and with Oakland and Indiana in its upcoming schedule, they could become #1 if they perform well. It also helps that the entire Big 10 is performing better than expected, with Purdue, Indiana, and Wisconsin all looking extra strong, and Michigan State and Illinois still with lots of potential.

Washington continues to sit much higher in my rankings than the national polls, and a big part of the reason is that all three teams they have lost to went undefeated this week, and all 3 are in the top 25 nationally and the top 26 of my rankings. The Pac 10 still isn't as strong as it was a few years ago, but it's much improved over last year.

Vanderbilt continues to be overlooked, but with wins over Belmont and a decent North Carolina team, along with close losses to Missouri and underrated West Virginia, they are a team to watch. Their late-season matchups with Kentucky should open some eyes and get them into the tournament, win or lose.

I don't think anybody expected Purdue to play this well without Robbie Hummel, but their early season schedule has been pretty tame, and with conference play starting in a week, we will see how strong they really are when they face ranked teams every week.

Louisville has beaten Butler and UNLV, both of which had good comeback weeks, and Drexel, the only team to beat them, is a favorite to win their conference and enter the NCAA Tournament. Their blowout over Gardner-Webb showed that they still are a very strong team, despite an imperfect record.

BYU's loss to UCLA was unexpected and unacceptable, but it doesn't erase what they did to both Saint Mary's and Arizona earlier this season. They play a surging UTEP team this week in a game they must win to maintain national respect.

I can't wait for UCF's matchup with Memphis in January, because the conference rivals are among the most underrated and overrated teams in the country, and it could turn into a blowout that most people will not foresee.

Indiana entered the rankings this week with two huge blowouts of small schools. Their only two losses have been on the road to good schools, but they need to show they can beat a good team on the road to stay where they are.

Texas beat North Carolina this week in a game between two teams that were lurking right outside the top 25. This week's game with Michigan State will give us a good idea which one of these teams is a contender and which is a pretender.

Butler keeps finding a way to get into the top 25 despite their 4 losses. None of the losses looks really bad, and this week's blowout of Stanford was impressive, no matter how far Stanford and the rest of the Pac 10 have fallen.

Duquesne is another 4-loss mid-major that keeps finding their way into the lower section of the rankings. Losing close games to Big East powers Pittsburgh and West Virginia helps their cause, and blowing out most of their other opponents does the rest.

Belmont is a team most people haven't even heard of, but they have only two losses, identical 85-76 scores at their larger in-state rivals, Vanderbilt and Tennessee, both of which are among the leaders of the SEC this year. A rematch with slumping Tennessee tomorrow could get them a little real attention.

NBA Player of the Day

I forgot to mention yesterday's winner, LaMarcus Aldridge, who is also the first repeat winner of the award. His 29 points and 19 rebounds powered the Trail Blazers to a 26-point demolition of the Bucks.

The best player last night was Kevin Durant, the star of the Oklahoma City Thunder. His 32 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists, helped the Thunder outscore Charlotte 31-12 in the 4th quarter and turn a close game into a blowout. This performance may help Durant move up the the MVP rankings this Friday.

Predictions - 22 Dec

College Football

(19) Utah vs. (10) Boise State - Boise State by 18

NBA

Cavaliers at Hawks - Hawks by 12
Bulls at Wizards - Bulls by 10
Pistons at Raptors - Raptors by 5
76ers at Celtics - Celtics by 14
Thunder at Knicks - Thunder by 1
Nets at Hornets - Hornets by 10
Jazz at Timberwolves - Jazz by 8
Nuggets at Spurs - Spurs by 8
Rockets at Clippers - Rockets by 2

College Basketball

(3) Kansas at California - Kansas by 9
Harvard at (4) Connecticut - Connecticut by 6
Drexel at (5) Syracuse - Syracuse by 10
American at (6) Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh by 25
(7) San Diego State vs. IUPUI - San Diego State by 16
(8) Villanova at Monmouth - Villanova by 15
(21) Illinois at (10) Missouri - Missouri by 4
(22) Texas at (12) Michigan State - Michigan State by 5
Winthrop at (14) Kentucky - Kentucky by 26
San Diego vs. (15) Baylor - Baylor by 21
Radford at (19) Florida - Florida by 35
UMBC at (20) Notre Dame - Notre Dame by 34
(25) Louisville at Western Kentucky - Louisville by 10
UCF at Massachusetts - UCF by 12
Northern Iowa at Indiana - Indiana by 18
George Mason at Duquesne - Duquesne by 8
Robert Morris at Arizona - Arizona by 15
Nevada at Washington - Washington by 32
Utah at Butler - Butler by 17

I'm not predicting any specific upsets today, but with 6 games involving top 25 teams that my formula has predicted to be within 10 points, I would guess that 2 or 3 of them will end up going against the favorite. Missouri, Michigan State, and Connecticut are the 3 I am personally thinking are most likely to go down.

Prediction Results - 21 Dec

NBA: 4/6 (.667) 177/237 overall (.747)
College Football: 1/1 (1.000) 40/55 overall (.727)
College Basketball: 6/9 (.667) 126/151 overall (.834)

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

NFL Rankings - 21 Dec

It's hard to believe that only one team has clinched its division with only two weeks remaining in the regular season. There are plenty of teams that are "mathematically" alive, but there are only a few that have a realistic chance still. Here are the updated rankings and playoff picture. The team's name is followed by its record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. New England (12-2) -13.16 (1)
2. Green Bay (8-6) -9.80 (3)
3. San Diego (8-6) -7.83 (4)
4. Pittsburgh (10-4) -7.77 (2)
5. Philadelphia (10-4) -7.26 (7)
6. Atlanta (12-2) -6.52 (5)
7. Baltimore (10-4) -5.87 (6)
8. NY Jets (10-4) -5.52 (9)
9. Chicago (10-4) -4.96 (15)
10. NY Giants (9-5) -3.79 (8)
11. Indianapolis (8-6) -3.76 (11)
12. Tennessee (6-8) -3.71 (13)
13. New Orleans (10-4) -2.24 (10)
14. Kansas City (9-5) -1.10 (21)
15. Detroit (4-10) -1.04 (14)
16. Miami (7-7) -0.97 (12)
17. Oakland (7-7) -0.03 (17)
18. Cleveland (5-9) 0.15 (16)
19. Houston (5-9) 1.47 (18)
20. Dallas (5-9) 1.59 (19)
21. Jacksonville (8-6) 1.99 (22)
22. Buffalo (4-10) 2.17 (24)
23. Tampa Bay (8-6) 2.87 (20)
24. Washington (5-9) 3.58 (26)
25. Cincinnati (3-11) 3.62 (25)
26. Minnesota (5-9) 4.08 (23)
27. Saint Louis (6-8) 6.14 (27)
28. San Francisco (5-9) 6.74 (28)
29. Seattle (6-8) 9.05 (30)
30. Denver (3-11) 9.29 (31)
31. Arizona (4-10) 12.12 (29)
32. Carolina (2-12) 13.13 (32)

If you want to know how strong the Patriots are, just look at this week's results from its most recent blowout victims. The Jets went into Pittsburgh and surprised the favored Steelers, while the Bears blew out the Vikings on the road in a game that looked to be close. New England also beat another playoff contender themselves, making that five out of six weeks that they have beaten a team that is currently in playoff position.

The Packers moved back into the #2 spot with their strong performance against the Patriots, who were expected to beat them easily with Aaron Rodgers sitting out. The Packers only lost because Matt Flynn didn't have the experience to run the two-minute offense, but that still doesn't take away what they did.

Philadelphia went from possible missing the playoffs to probable division champion in just two weeks after engineering a huge comeback to beat chief division rival New York on the road. With the division title comes a home playoff game, which could be the advantage the Eagles need to move past the first round.

Kansas City looked very strong in its victory over the Rams, but it still may not be enough to win the division. This week's game against Tennessee is the key, because San Diego will most likely win out and owns the tiebreaker at this point. They cannot let down their guard at all if they want to keep playing in January.

I was very excited to see Detroit play Tampa Bay this week, because they have been the most underrated and most overrated teams in the league for most of the season, and the result was just as I predicted. Tampa is most likely out of playoff contention now, which is a good thing, because it's bad enough that one bottom 10 team will be getting in (the NFC West champ).

The bottom three appear to be in reverse order of what logic would say, since Arizona beat Denver and Carolina beat Arizona in the past two weeks, but this ranking is the result of a full season's performance, and those two games aren't enough to make up for what they have done in the first 12 games.

Playoff Picture

Rankings and results based on predicted results for final two weeks.

AFC

1. New England (14-2)
2. Pittsburgh (12-4)
3. San Diego (10-6)
4. Indianapolis (10-6)
5. Baltimore (12-4)
6. NY Jets (11-5)

First Round

Chargers over Jets
Colts over Ravens

Second Round

Steelers over Chargers
Patriots over Colts

Championship

Patriots over Steelers

NFC

1. Atlanta (14-2)
2. Philadelphia (12-4)
3. Chicago (11-5)
4. Saint Louis (8-8)
5. New Orleans (11-5)
6. Green Bay (10-6)

First Round

Packers over Bears
Saints over Rams

Second Round

Packers over Falcons
Eagles over Saints

Championship

Packers over Eagles

Super Bowl

Patriots over Packers

Predictions - 21 Dec

NBA

Mavericks at Magic - Mavericks by 1
Thunder at Bobcats - Thunder by 5
76ers at Bulls - Bulls by 6
Nets at Grizzlies - Grizzlies by 7
Warriors at Kings - Warriors by 1
Bucks at Lakers - Lakers by 12

College Basketball

North Carolina-Asheville at (2) Ohio State - Ohio State by 22
San Francisco vs. (7) San Diego State - San Diego State by 21
UNLV at (11) Kansas State - Kansas State by 5
IPFW at (13) Purdue - Purdue by 24
USC at (18) Tennessee - Tennessee by 9
(23) BYU at Weber State - BYU by 13
Wagner at (24) Texas A&M - Texas A&M by 20
Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee State - Vanderbilt by 12
Northwestern at Saint John's - Northwestern by 2

College Football

Southern Mississippi vs. Louisville - Louisville by 8

Prediction Results - 20 Dec

NFL: 1/1 (1.000) 49/80 overall (.613)
NBA: 7/9 (.778) 173/231 overall (.749)
College Basketball: 5/5 (1.000) 120/142 overall (.845)

I hope you noticed that my #1 overrated team, Memphis, struggled to beat Texas A&M-Corpus Christi yesterday. Let me hear it! O-VER-RA-TED!

Monday, December 20, 2010

NBA Rankings - 20 Dec

Here are the newly updated rankings for all games through December 19. The team's name is followed by this week's record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Boston (3-0) (22-4) -8.92 (1)
2. Miami (4-0) (21-8) -8.33 (2)
3. San Antonio (3-0) (23-3) -7.80 (3)
4. LA Lakers (4-0) (21-7) -6.98 (5)
5. Dallas (2-1) (21-5) -5.91 (4)
6. Utah (2-1) (19-9) -3.71 (7)
7. Chicago (2-1) (16-9) -3.64 (8)
8. Orlando (0-2) (16-10) -2.52 (6)
9. Denver (2-1) (16-10) -2.49 (11)
10. New Orleans (2-2) (16-11) -2.34 (12)
11. Oklahoma City (2-1) (19-9) -1.76 (10)
12. Philadelphia (3-1) (11-16) -0.93 (14)
13. Houston (3-1) (12-15) -0.87 (16)
14. Indiana (1-3) (12-14) -0.86 (13)
15. Atlanta (1-3) (17-12) -0.44 (9)
16. Memphis (2-2) (12-16) -0.03 (20)
17. Portland (2-2) (14-14) 0.04 (15)
18. Phoenix (2-1) (13-13) 0.11 (18)
19. Milwaukee (1-2) (10-15) 0.87 (19)
20. New York (0-3) (16-12) 1.07 (17)
21. Toronto (1-3) (10-18) 3.37 (21)
22. Charlotte (1-2) (9-17) 3.68 (22)
23. LA Clippers (2-1) (7-21) 3.95 (25)
24. Golden State (1-2) (9-17) 4.10 (24)
25. New Jersey (2-2) (8-20) 4.33 (23)
26. Detroit (2-1) (9-19) 5.71 (26)
27. Minnesota (0-4) (6-22) 5.84 (27)
28. Washington (0-3) (6-19) 7.16 (28)
29. Cleveland (1-2) (8-19) 7.50 (30)
30. Sacramento (0-4) (5-20) 8.08 (29)

Up, up, and away:

The Houston Rockets did a good job of dealing with Yao Ming's latest season-ending injury with a 3-1 week. The downside to the good week is that two of the wins were against the Sacramento Kings, who are not only the bottom team in my rankings, but the team with the overall worst record. Houston is somewhat underrated, and they're used to playing without Yao, so they should continue to improve.

Memphis won two very big home games against Portland and Charlotte this week before falling to two-thirds of the Texas Triangle, although their loss in San Antonio did go to overtime, so they have no reason to hang their heads. Memphis doesn't play another team with a winning record until the New Year, so they should finish off strong in 2010.

Down the chimney

The Jekyll and Hyde Atlanta Hawks followed up a very strong week with one that was definitely not. The loss to Boston was understandable. The losses to New Jersey and Detroit, however, were not. Their upcoming schedule is filled with struggling teams, so they may be able to recover, but if they don't pull it together soon, there may be some changes coming in Georgia.

The New York Knicks came into this week having won 13 of 14, but after a heartbreaking loss to the Celtics, they couldn't keep up with the Heat, then continued the downward trend by losing at Cleveland, who had been the worst team in the league to that point. They have 4 straight top 11 teams coming up, so things may be returning to normal in the Big Apple.

NBA Player of the Day

Tayshaun Prince - DET - 28 pts, 12 reb, 8 ast, 3 blk, 12-16 FG
Prince led the Pistons back from a 10-point halftime deficit to pull out a rare victory in overtime over the New Orleans Hornets. Not only did he lead them statistically, he also blocked a shot by Chris Paul that would have won the game in regulation.

Predictions - 20 Dec

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Magic at Hawks - Hawks by 1
Jazz at Cavaliers - Jazz by 8
Hornets at Pacers - Pacers by 1
Bobcats at Wizards - Bobcats by 1
Mavericks at Heat - Heat by 5
Suns at Spurs - Spurs by 11
Bucks at Blazers - Blazers by 4
Rockets at Warriors - Rockets by 2
Timberwolves at Clippers - Clippers by 5

College Basketball

Elon at (1) Duke - Duke by 45
Coppin State at (4) Connecticut - Connecticut by 33
Morgan State at (5) Syracuse - Syracuse by 23
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi at (17) Memphis - Memphis by 23
Belmont at Alabama State - Belmont by 25

NFL

Chicago at Minnesota - Chicago by 1

Prediction Results - 19 Dec

NFL: 9/14 (.643) 48/79 overall (.608)
NBA: 3/6 (.500) 166/222 overall (.748)
College Basketball: 2/2 (1.000) 115/137 overall (.839)

Sunday, December 19, 2010

College Basketball Overrated and Underrated - 19 Dec

These are the most over and underrated teams in college basketball currently, using discrepancy between my rankings and the current AP poll as measurements. I've found over time that the teams that are most overrated tend to lose in upsets or be challenged more than expected by unranked teams, and that my underrated teams seem to surprise some people with their victories or close calls. I am not guaranteeing that any upset will occur involving any of these teams this week, but it wouldn't surprise me if it happened.

Overrated

1. Memphis
2. Minnesota
3. Baylor
4. Syracuse
5. Villanova

We already saw Baylor get upset by Gonzaga yesterday, and even though I didn't predict an upset, it didn't really surprise me when it happened. Kansas State and Tennessee also came very close to being included here this week, and we've seen what's happened to them recently.

Underrated

1. Belmont
2. West Virginia
3. Washington
4. Duquesne
5. Vanderbilt

Surprisingly, 3 of these teams come from the so-called "power" conferences, yet they aren't getting any respect from the voters. West Virginia made a deep tournament run last season, so it surprises me to find them here. Keep an eye on these 5.

NBA Player of the Day

Kevin Love - MIN - 43 pts, 17 reb, 3 ast, 14-23 FG, 10-12 FT, 5-5 3P
Usually I won't consider a player from a losing team for my player of the day, but there is no way to ignore what Love did again last night. He outscored every other player last night, added to his league-leading rebound total, and hit all five of his three-pointers. Remember, he is a power forward. I believe that Love is currently one of the top 5 players in the entire league.

Predictions - 19 Dec

Upset picks are in italics

NBA

Pacers at Celtics - Celtics by 11
Hawks at Nets - Hawks by 3
Lakers at Raptors - Lakers by 7
Hornets at Pistons - Hornets by 8
Rockets at Kings - Rockets by 6
Suns at Thunder - Thunder by 6

College Basketball

Stony Brook at (23) Notre Dame - Notre Dame by 24
Arizona at North Carolina State - Arizona by 4

NFL

Cardinals at Panthers - Cardinals by 3
Browns at Bengals - Browns by 1
Redskins at Cowboys - Cowboys by 5
Texans at Titans - Titans by 6
Jaguars at Colts - Colts by 8
Chiefs at Rams - Chiefs by 1
Bills at Dolphins - Dolphins by 8
Eagles at Giants - Giants by 2
Lions at Buccaneers - Lions by 2
Saints at Ravens - Ravens by 5
Falcons at Seahawks - Falcons by 14
Broncos at Raiders - Raiders by 12
Jets at Steelers - Steelers by 8
Packers at Patriots - Patriots by 8

Prediction Results - 18 Dec

College Football: 2/3 (.667) 39/54 overall (.722)
NBA: 4/8 (.500) 163/216 overall (.755)
College Basketball: 21/25 (.840) 113/135 overall (.837)

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Predictions - 18 Dec

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

76ers at Magic - Magic by 6
Heat at Wizards - Heat by 15
Knicks at Cavaliers - Knicks by 5
Clippers at Bulls - Bulls by 12
Jazz at Bucks - Bucks by 1
Grizzlies at Spurs - Spurs by 12
Timberwolves at Nuggets - Nuggets by 13
Warriors at Blazers - Blazers by 7

College Basketball

South Carolina at (2) Ohio State - Ohio State by 20
USC at (3) Kansas - Kansas by 21
Iona at (5) Syracuse - Syracuse by 14
(6) Kansas State at (24) Florida - Florida by 4
Maryland-Eastern Shore at (8) Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh by 44
Gonzaga at (9) Baylor - Baylor by 12
Cal-Santa Barbara at (10) San Diego State - San Diego State by 12
Delaware at (11) Villanova - Villanova by 14
Central Arkansas at (12) Missouri - Missouri by 32
Loyola-Maryland at (13) Georgetown - Georgetown by 25
(14) Illinois at Illinois-Chicago - Illinois by 18
Prairie View A&M at (15) Michigan State - Michigan State by 35
Mississippi Valley State at (16) Kentucky - Kentucky by 35
Indiana State at (17) Purdue - Purdue by 22
(18) BYU at UCLA - BYU by 11
Gardner-Webb at (21) Louisville - Louisville by 23
Southern Utah at (22) UNLV - UNLV by 25
(25) Texas at North Carolina - North Carolina by 6
Drexel at Saint Francis-PA - Drexel by 23
Northern Illinois at Temple - Temple by 32
Arkansas at Texas A&M - Texas A&M by 12
Cleveland State at West Virginia - West Virginia by 12
Long Beach State at Saint Mary's - Saint Mary's by 19
Southeastern Louisiana at Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt by 31
San Francisco at Washington - Washington by 30

College Football

BYU vs. UTEP - BYU by 14
Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State - Fresno State by 2
Ohio vs. Troy - Troy by 5

Prediction Results - 17 Dec

NBA: 10/11 (.909) 159/208 overall (.764)
College Basketball: 0/1 (.000) 92/110 overall (.836)

NBA Player of the Day

LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - 36 pts, 10 reb, 5 blk
It's tough to overlook LeBron's triple-double against the Knicks, but Aldridge takes today's prize by outscoring LeBron 36-32, outblocking him 5-0, and had a better shooting percentage from the field and from the line.

Friday, December 17, 2010

NBA MVP Rankings - 17 Dec

After having a little fun with last year's rankings yesterday, it's time to come back to the present and rank my current picks for each of this year's awards. Last week's ranking is in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. Pau Gasol - LAL (1) 19.8 pts, 11.2 reb, 2.2 blk
By Pau's standards, this was a pretty average week, and the only performance that really stood out at all was his 28 points against Indiana. He's still leading the defending champions in rebounds and blocks, but with Andrew Bynum returning, he may see a dip in his production. Don't be surprised to see a new face in this spot next week.

2. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL (3) 25.0 pts, 7.7 reb, .562 FG%
Dirk's 56% field goal percentage is the best of his career by far. He has only shot 50% for a season once (50.2% in 2007), and that was the season he walked away with the MVP award. If Dallas hadn't lost their winning streak against Milwaukee, he probably would have taken over the top spot this week.

3. LeBron James - MIA (4) 23.9 pts, 6.2 reb, 7.1 ast
LeBron scored over 20 points in all 4 games this week, and the Heat won them all to extend their season-best winning streak to 10 games. The competition was relatively weak this week, but that changes this week, with visits to New York and Phoenix along with a visit from the Mavericks.

4. Kobe Bryant - LAL (2) 26.7 pts, 5.2 reb, 4.7 ast
Once again, Kobe knows how to score points, reaching 20 points now in 19 consecutive games, but the Lakers' loss to Chicago in their lone challenge of the week showed that these Lakers are still not quite as good as last year's champs.

5. Russell Westbrook - OKC (5) 23.3 pts, 8.6 ast, 5.2 reb
We saw both sides of Westbrook this week, from his masterful 29-point, 10-assist performance at New Orleans to his ho-hum 17 -point, 5-assist game against the Rockets. As long as the Thunder continue to win and Westbrook puts up the numbers he has been, he will be in this race.

6. Dwyane Wade - MIA (10) 23.6 pts, 6.5 reb, 4.2 ast
D-Wade was simply great this week, averaging 32.5 points on 60.8% shooting as the Heat extended their winning streak to ten games. The winning streak has coincided with Wade's return to form, which makes me wonder whether he might actually be the team's most valuable player.

7. Kevin Durant - OKC (6) 27.5 pts, 6.9 reb, .917 FT%
Durant's numbers are still down across the board this year, but he is the current scoring leader, and he has seen an increase in nearly every category in December compared to November. If he can get back to the form he showed last season, he could jump teammate Russell Westbrook before long.

8. Amare Stoudemire - NYK (8) 26.7 pts, 9.1 reb, 2.0 blk
Stoudemire has now posted 9 consecutive 30-point games, including a 39-point performance against the Boston Celtics that would have been 42 points and a win if his buzzer-beating 3-pointer had counted. The Knicks are definitely one of the hottest teams in the league, and by the looks of their performance against Boston, very underrated.

9. Derrick Rose - CHI (7) 23.9 pts, 8.4 ast, 4.3 reb
Rose is currently being slowed by wrist and elbow injuries, but he is playing through them and still getting the ball to the right people to help Chicago win. The Bulls have won 7 straight, and if the injury doesn't slow him down for too long, he should be able to maintain his standing on this list.

10. Deron Williams - UTA (NR) 23.0 pts, 9.8 ast, 4.0 reb
It may seem that Williams regained this spot because of Manu Ginobili's recent statistical dip, but Williams turned in one of the strongest weeks of any player in the league, averaging 32 points while shooting 53% from the floor and from 3-point range while also hitting 90% of his free throws. The Jazz's only loss came to the equally hot Mavericks.

Falling out: Manu Ginobili
Waiting for next week: Kevin Garnett, Carmelo Anthony

Rookie of the Year

1. Blake Griffin - LAC 20.3 pts, 12.1 reb, 3.1 ast
It would take a monumental collapse for Griffin to not win the Rookie of the Year award. If the Clippers were only a better team, Griffin would find himself in the running for the MVP award, but as it is, he should still be a strong contender for a spot in the All-Star game.

2. John Wall - WAS 16.7 pts, 8.9 ast, 2.3 stl
The other #1 pick has been slowed by a knee injury for the past week, and he only scored a very disappointing 8 points when he attempted to play against New York. He needs to take the time to get healthy so that he can play at full strength. He's most likely going to be the ROY runner-up anyway.

3. Landry Fields - NYK 10.5 pts, 7.5 reb, 1.7 ast
The reigning Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month has a little different story than the two ranked above him. He was not a #1 pick. In fact, he wasn't drafted until the 2nd round, but New York found a gem and are definitely reaping the benefits, as they are looking much more likely to make the playoffs than the Clippers or Wizards.

4. Eric Bledsoe - LAC 7.9 pts, 3.5 reb, 4.7 ast
Bledsoe joins his college teammate, John Wall, and his current teammate, Blake Griffin, on the short list for Rookie of the Year, although more realistically he is just a candidate to make the All-Rookie First Team. He has been returned to the bench after averaging less than 3 points per game this week.

5. DeMarcus Cousins - SAC 11.3 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.3 ast
Cousins has played relatively well lately, other than a dud against Miami, but he is showing some definite promise. With Cousins and reigning Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans to build around, the Kings could become a respectable team in years to come.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Wilson Chandler - NYK 17.3 pts, 6.2 reb, 1.7 blk
The Knicks have yet another representative in my rankings thanks to the strong play of Wilson Chandler off the bench. In addition to scoring 27 points against Denver this week, he put up 18 points and 12 rebounds in the Knicks' close loss to Boston.

2. Jason Terry - DAL 15.8 pts, 4.4 ast, 1.6 stl
This is Terry's 4th season coming off the bench for the Mavericks, and it's obvious he has become comfortable in his role. There has been no dropoff in his production, and he already has one Sixth Man trophy sitting at home, from his incredible 2009 season in which he averaged nearly 21 points per game off the bench.

3. Daniel Gibson - CLE 13.7 pts, 3.3 reb, 3.0 ast
The Cavaliers have been starting Gibson for the past week, and if the position becomes full-time, it will impact his eligibility for this award. As of today, with only 4 starts on the season and the best numbers of his career, he has to be included.

4. Jamal Crawford - ATL 14.8 pts, 3.5 ast, 1.8 reb
Last year's Sixth Man winner has obviously been a little down from last season, and a recent back injury has done nothing to help. He scored onlt 2 points against Detroit before sitting out against Boston with the injury.

5. Antawn Jamison - CLE 13.2 pts, 5.6 reb, 1.5 ast
Jamison has also been receiving treatment for a back injury, but his dip in production hasn't been as pronounced as Crawford's. Depending on the severity of the injuries, we could be seeing one or two new names on this list next week.

Most Improved Player

(Last year's stats in parentheses)

1. Dorell Wright - GSW 14.9 pts, 6.1 reb, 3.1 ast (7.1 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.3 ast)
The move to Oakland and the opportunity to start have allowed Wright to show what he can do after 6 years on the bench in Miami. The only problem is that his shooting percentages have all dropped, so his numbers are up as a result of an increase in opportunity. We'll see how long he can maintain it.

2. D.J. Augustin - CHA 12.6 pts, 6.4 ast, 3.4 reb (6.4 pts, 2.4 ast, 1.2 reb)
Augustin became a full-time starter this season, and his numbers have seen a nice jump, although not unexpected. He had similar production as a rookie, then dropped off last season. He still struggles at times, like his 0 for 8 shooting night against Boston, but the good has outweighed the bad so far.

3. Kevin Love - MIN 20.3 pts, 15.6 reb, 2.2 ast (14.0 pts, 11.0 reb, 2.3 ast)
Love has gone from being a solid player to a likely All-Star and the league leader in rebounding in his third season. He now has 12 consecutive double-doubles and would be a leading MVP candidate if the Timberwolves could turn around their season.

4. Paul Millsap - UTA 17.9 pts, 8.1 reb, 2.4 ast (11.6 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.6 ast)
Millsap's assumption of the starting power forward position came one season later than expected for the Jazz, but the results have been exactly what they had expected. Millsap's steady production all season long has been one big reason that the Jazz are leading their division.

5. Eric Gordon - LAC 24.1 pts, 3.3 reb, 4.6 ast (16.9 pts, 2.6 reb, 3.0 ast)
Gordon gives the 2008 Draft Class its third member on this list, as he has gone from being a solid starter to potential All-Star (if voters ignore the name on the front of his jersey). Before scoring only 16 points against the 76ers, he had reached 20 points in 12 consecutive games.

NBA Player of the Day

Tim Duncan - SAS 28 pts, 16 reb, 4 blk
Duncan set a season-high in points and was very close to his highs in rebounds and blocks, and looked just like himself from years past as he dominated the Nuggets' big men in a very close win that kept the Spurs in first place.

Predictions - 17 Dec

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Cavaliers at Pacers - Pacers by 11
Heat at Knicks - Heat by 5
Lakers at 76ers - Lakers by 4
Nets at Raptors - Raptors by 4
Bobcats at Hawks - Hawks by 8
Clippers at Pistons - Pistons by 4
Jazz at Hornets - Hornets by 1
Kings at Thunder - Thunder by 13
Grizzlies at Rockets - Rockets by 2
Suns at Mavericks - Mavericks by 9
Timberwolves at Blazers - Blazers by 10

College Basketball

(7) Tennessee at Charlotte - Tennessee by 12

Prediction Results - 16 Dec

NFL: 1/1 (1.000) 39/65 overall (.600)
NBA: 3/3 (1.000) 149/197 overall (.756)
College Basketball: 3/3 (1.000) 92/109 overall (.844)

I had a perfect day on predictions yesterday, but I was nearly done in by Memphis, who I have always felt was overrated. Maybe this will wake up the voters to the fact that they are not the top team in their own conference - that would be UCF, who I have had ranked all season long.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

2009-10 NBA MVP Rankings

I thought it would be fun to take a look back at the various NBA awards from last season and see what I would have done differently. I've gone through all of the major awards, with the exception of Defensive Player of the Year (which is hard to determine statistically), and ranked the players I believe should have received recognition for their contributions, and I've included their actual rank in the final voting in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James - CLE - (1) - 29.7 pts, 7.3 reb, 8.6 ast
LeBron won this award by a mile, and with good reason. He set career highs in assists and field goal percentage, was 2nd in the league in scoring average, and led his Cleveland Cavaliers to the league's best record. He wins no matter how you define MVP: as the best player in the league, the best player on the best team, or as the player who contributed most to his team's success.

2. Kobe Bryant - LAL - (3) - 27.0 pts, 5.4 reb, 5.0 ast
Kobe had yet another very solid year, finishing 4th in the league in scoring and leading the Lakers to the best record in the West and another NBA title. He obviously has to be ranked behind LeBron, who bettered him in every statistical category, but it's undeniable that Bryant remains one of the NBA's best players.

3. Kevin Durant - OKC - (2) - 30.1 pts, 7.6 reb, 2.8 ast
At only 21 years of age and in his 3rd year in the NBA, Kevin Durant led the league in scoring and set new career highs in every category while leading the very young Oklahoma City Thunder to a playoff berth. The Thunder were able to take two games from the top-seeded Lakers before falling in the first round, 4-2.

4. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - (7) - 25.0 pts, 7.7 reb, 2.7 ast
Dirk averaged at least 20 points per game for the tenth consecutive season and set a new career high in free throw percentage. The Mavericks won their division again, and Dirk was unquestionable their top player, but they once again fell short in the playoffs, losing to the Spurs in the first round.

5. Dwight Howard - ORL - (4) - 18.3 pts, 13.2 reb, 2.8 blk
Dwight Howard led the NBA in rebounding for the 3rd straight season and blocks for the 2nd straight year and helped Orlando finish with the second-best record in the league, just behind the Cavaliers. He also led the league in field goal percentage for the first time and won his second consecutive Defensive Player of the Year award.

6. Pau Gasol - LAL - (NR) - 18.3 pts, 11.3 reb, 3.4 ast
Pau finished with nearly identical numbers to Dwight Howard, but didn't receive the same attention from the MVP voters, probably because he was overshadowed by his more famous teammate, Kobe Bryant. Anyone who doubts Pau's value to the Lakers just needs to look at the team's record before Pau arrived and afterward. They went from 42 wins one year to 57+ over Pau's first 3 years with the team.

7. Carmelo Anthony - DEN - (6) - 28.2 pts, 6.6 reb, 3.2 ast
Carmelo was the league's 3rd leading scorer, nearly setting a new career high, and helped the Nuggets tie for the division title with the rival Utah Jazz. Sadly, they lost to those same Jazz in the first round of the playoffs, ending Carmelo's great year on a sour note.

8. Amare Stoudemire - PHX - (10) - 23.1 pts, 8.9 reb, 1.0 ast
The Suns' leader in points and rebounds was a big reason that they were able to return to the playoffs after a one-year absence and eventually return to the Western Conference Finals for the 3rd time in his career in Phoenix. He is another case of a dominant big man who doesn't get the recognition he deserves because of a more famous backcourt teammate.

9. Carlos Boozer - UTA - (NR) - 19.5 pts, 11.2 reb, 3.2 ast
Boozer's healthy return from injury gave Utah the boost it needed to gain a tie for the division title and a first round win over the division-rival Denver Nuggets. He was also shut out of the NBA voting in favor of a Deron Williams, but it's hard to ignore his contribution to another great season for the Jazz.

10. Dwyane Wade - MIA - (5) - 26.6 pts, 4.8 reb, 6.5 ast
The defending scoring champion had a dropoff in every major statistical category, yet was still able to end up in fifth place in the MVP voting despite only helping his Heat to 4 more wins than the previous season and a first-round playoff exit. This is an example of voting for the name rather than the game.

Rookie of the Year

1. Tyreke Evans - SAC - (1) - 20.1 pts, 5.3 reb, 5.8 ast
The #4 pick played more like the #1 pick from the beginning of the season until the end, joining the very exclusive 20-5-5 club in just his first season. The Kings still finished with one of the worst records in the NBA, but luckily for Evans, the ROY vote does not usually hinge on the team's success.

2. Stephen Curry - GSW - (2) - 17.5 pts, 4.5 reb, 5.9 ast
Curry was another top 10 pick who was able to prove that he was worth the risk, shooting over 43% from 3-point range and 88% from the free throw line while starting nearly every game for the Warriors. His contribution still wasn't enough to help Golden State make the playoffs, but he gives them a solid player to build around.

3. Brandon Jennings - MIL - (3) - 15.5 pts, 3.4 reb, 5.7 ast
Jennings caught everyone's attention when he scored 55 points against Golden State in just the 7th game of his career, but his production slowly declined as the season progressed. He was able to accomplish something the two rookies ahead of him weren't however, as Milwaukee made the playoffs with Jennings as a full-time starter.

4. Darren Collison - NOH - (4) - 12.4 pts, 2.5 reb, 5.7 ast
Collison spent most of the season as Chris Paul's backup, but was given the opportunity to start while Paul was out with an injury and showed that he has the potential to be a very good NBA point guard. The 21st pick in the draft also made the All-Rookie First Team, and was the only member of that team who had played a full four years of college basketball.

5. Jonny Flynn - MIN - (5) - 13.5 pts, 2.4 reb, 4.4 ast
Flynn had a solid season as the starting point guard for the Timberwolves, but just like the top 2 ROY candidates, his team finished far from a playoff berth. He never reached 30 points, 10 rebounds, or 10 assists in a game during the season, but did show that he has a future in the league.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Manu Ginobili - SAS - (4) - 16.5 pts, 3.8 reb, 4.9 ast
I think that some voters just got tired of voting for Manu every year, so they gave someone else the opportunity to win the award, but you can't deny that Manu coming off the bench gave the Spurs a spark and helped them reach the playoffs once again. This may be the last time he is eligible for this award, as he has become a full-time starter in 2010-11.

2. Carl Landry - HOU/SAC - (8) - 16.8 pts, 5.9 reb, 0.8 ast
Landry was a huge contributor off the bench for the Rockets before a trade to the Kings made him a starter for the remainder of the season, which is why he didn't receive the votes he deserved for this award. He only started 29 games over the course of the season, so he is still eligible for the award, and his production didn't increase that much when he became a starter, with increases of 0.7 pts and 0.4 rebounds from his Houston averages at the end of the season.

3. Jamal Crawford - ATL - (1) - 18.0 pts, 2.5 reb, 3.0 ast
Crawford may have scored more than the two players ranked ahead of his on this list, but his contribution to the Hawks basically ends there. He is not much of a rebounder or passer, and he is just an average shooter. He was able to make his first NBA playoff appearance this season, which may have contributed to the voters picking him over more worthy candidates.

4. Lamar Odom - LAL - (6) - 10.8 pts, 9.8 reb, 3.3 ast
Odom was overlooked for this award largely because his overall production took a big hit with his relegation to the bench. He had a career low in scoring, but was still a solid rebounder and gave the Lakers size off the bench in their quest for the championship.

5. Kevin Love - MIN - (11) - 14.0 pts, 11.0 reb, 2.3 ast
Love missed 22 games for Minnesota over the course of the season, but when he played he showed why he was the fifth pick in the draft, and he played himself into a starting role for the current season. His contributions still haven't made the Timberwolves winners, but he's a solid big man that they can build around for years to come.

Most Improved Player

1. Danilo Gallinari - NYK - (14) - 15.1 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.7 ast
Playing a full season with the Knicks helped Gallinari adapt to the NBA game, and he ended up among the league leaders in 3-pointers made. With some more experience he could continue to progress as a player and possible make an All-Star game at some point in his career.

2. Aaron Brooks - HOU - (1) - 19.6 pts, 2.6 reb, 5.3 ast
Brooks came out of nowhere to become the leader of the Rockets after both Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming were lost to injuries and did not return to the team. He led the league in 3-pointers made and played in every game for a team that desperately needed healthy leadership.

3. Channing Frye - PHX - (14) - 11.2 pts, 5.3 reb, 1.4 ast
Frye had made a total of 20 3-pointers in his NBA career before hitting 172 in his first season in Phoenix. His production cooled as the season progressed, but he easily had his best season overall and was a productive member of a team that made the Western Conference Finals.

4. George Hill - SAS - (4) - 12.4 pts, 2.6 reb, 2.9 ast
Hill went from benchwarmer to starter for the Spurs during the season, and the jump in his production showed the difference. He more than doubled his scoring average and increased his shooting percentage from 40% to 48% compared to his rookie year.

5. Monta Ellis - GSW - (26) - 25.5 pts, 4.0 reb, 5.3 ast
Ellis led the league in minutes per game as he saw big jumps in his scoring and assist averages. Not many people considered him for this award because he had previously won the award in 2007, but a mention on this list is definitely deserved.

Predictions - 16 Dec

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Wizards at Nets - Nets by 6
Hawks at Celtics - Celtics by 12
Spurs at Nuggets - Spurs by 1

NFL

49ers at Chargers - Chargers by 14

College Basketball

Oral Roberts at (12) Missouri - Missouri by 12
Austin Peay at (19) Memphis - Memphis by 15
Northern Arizona at Arizona - Arizona by 19

Prediction Results - 15 Dec

NBA: 11/11 (1.000) 146/194 overall (.753)
College Basketball: 4/5 (.800) 89/106 overall (.840)