College Basketball Bracket Predictions - 12 Dec

Joe Lunardi, a columnist at ESPN, does a special feature he calls Bracketology, which is his attempt to predict which teams will participate in the NCAA Tournament and their seeding, and his results are usually pretty accurate. Throughout the season he updates his bracket prediction based on the results of recent games, about once a month early in the season, then later weekly, and then daily right at the end of the season. His current predictions can be seen here.

This is my prediction of the results of the NCAA Tournament based on his prediction of the makeup of the bracket. These results are based on my College Basketball formula with home court advantage included if a team is scheduled to play in their home state or on a familiar court. The number before each team's name is its seed in Lunardi's bracket.

Sweet 16

East

1. Duke
5. Louisville
3. Michigan State
2. Georgetown

West

1. Kansas
5. BYU
3. Illinois
7. Texas

Southeast

1. Ohio State
4. UNLV
6. Arizona
7. Wisconsin

Southwest

1. Pittsburgh
4. San Diego State
3. Tennessee
7. West Virginia

Elite Eight

1. Duke
2. Georgetown
5. BYU
3. Illinois
1. Ohio State
6. Arizona
1. Pittsburgh
3. Tennessee

Final Four

1. Duke
5. BYU
1. Ohio State
3. Tennessee

Championship

Duke over Ohio State

As I was working through this bracket, I noticed something interesting. 5 of the top 6 teams in my current rankings (as of today, not the ones I posted on Wednesday) are in the same region of this proposed tournament bracket, the West. While all 5 should win first-round games, at least 2 would be eliminated before the Sweet 16, in this case Saint Mary's and Kentucky. Another, Kansas, would not reach the Elite Eight. I don't believe that the same situation will happen at the end of the season, but it makes it stand out to me that the Final Four are not necessarily the best four, but at least the Champion is still the best team, which is why the tournament works so well.

Predictions - 12 Dec

NBA

Nuggets at Knicks - Nuggets by 1
Hornets at 76ers - Hornets by 1
Lakers at Nets - Lakers by 7
Blazers at Spurs - Spurs by 10
Cavaliers at Thunder - Thunder by 13
Magic at Clippers - Magic by 6

College Basketball

West Carolina at (2) Ohio State - Ohio State by 30
Appalachian State at (10) Georgetown - Georgetown by 18
(12) Villanova at LaSalle - Villanova by 5
Northern Colorado at (17) Illinois - Illinois by 16
West Virginia at Duquesne - Duquesne by 1

Prediction Results - 11 Dec

NBA: 8/8 (1.000) 121/165 overall (.733)

College Basketball: 16/20 (.800) 77/90 overall (.856)

I had a perfect day of NBA predictions yesterday, which was very unexpected, since I had 4 games which I picked to be won by fewer than 6 points. The average for these "close games" is about 50% accuracy, so I'm very pleased with yesterday's results. To top that off, my first college basketball upset pick yesterday was correct, with Louisville knocking off previously undefeated UNLV, and my second upset pick was as close as it could be, with Oakland losing by 1 point to Michigan State. I also picked Washington and Texas A&M to be close, and the Aggies were able to pull off the upset that I didn't predict. Here's to another good day, although one with no upsets.