With less than 3 weeks remaining in the regular season, the playoff races are getting tighter. In the West, the Lakers have started to slip a little, and the Jazz and Mavericks are heating up, creating a 3-way race for that final playoff spot. In the East, which looked like it was completely decided weeks ago, the Milwaukee Bucks are doing everything they can to not make the playoffs, and the 76ers aren't completely dead yet, despite how bad they've been all year. Here are my current rankings, with projected final record and playoff seeding included, as well as the change in that projection from last week.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (Projected) Seed (Change)
1. (1) Oklahoma City (2-1) 53-20 (60-22) 2W
2. (2) Miami (3-1) 57-15 (65-17) 1E
3. (3) San Antonio (2-1) 55-17 (62-20) 1W (+1)
4. (4) LA Clippers (2-2) 49-24 (55-27) 4W (-1)
5. (5) Denver (2-2) 50-24 (56-26) 3W
6. (6) Indiana (3-1) 46-27 (52-30) 2E (+1)
7. (7) Memphis (2-2) 48-24 (54-28) 5W
8. (8) Houston (1-2) 39-33 (45-37) 7W (-1)
9. (9) New York (4-0) 45-26 (51-31) 3E (+1)
10. (10) Brooklyn (2-2) 42-30 (48-34) 4E
11. (11) LA Lakers (1-2) 37-36 (42-40) 8W
12. (12) Golden State (2-1) 41-32 (46-36) 6W
13. (14) Boston (2-2) 38-34 (43-39) 7E
14. (15) Atlanta (2-2) 40-33 (45-37) 6E
15. (18) Chicago (3-0) 39-31 (46-36) 5E (+2)
16. (16) Utah (3-1) 37-36 (41-41) 9W
17. (13) Dallas (2-1) 35-37 (40-42) 10W
18. (17) Portland (0-3) 33-39 (37-45) 11W (-1)
19. (20) Minnesota (2-2) 26-45 (31-51) 12W
20. (19) Milwaukee (1-2) 35-36 (40-42) 8E
21. (22) Washington (1-3) 26-46 (30-52) 11E (-1)
22. (23) Sacramento (2-2) 27-46 (30-52) 13W (+1)
23. (21) Toronto (1-2) 27-45 (31-51) 10E (-1)
24. (26) Philadelphia (3-1) 29-43 (33-49) 9E (+1)
25. (24) New Orleans (1-2) 25-48 (28-54) 14W
26. (25) Cleveland (0-2) 22-49 (26-56) 13E (-2)
27. (28) Phoenix (0-3) 23-50 (25-57) 15W (-1)
28. (27) Detroit (1-2) 24-49 (27-55) 12E (-1)
29. (29) Orlando (1-2) 19-54 (21-61) 14E
30. (30) Charlotte (1-3) 17-55 (19-63) 15E
The hottest team in the league right now is New York, and the hottest player not named LeBron is JR Smith. He has scored 30 points off the bench in 3 straight games, becoming the first reserve to achieve that since Ricky Pierce in 1990, when Smith was only 5 years old. The Knicks' win streak has reached 7 games, and they have taken over the #2 seed in the East once again, and now they look like they're here to stay.
Philadelphia kept their slim playoff hopes alive this week with 3 wins in the same week for the first time since November, and one of the teams they beat was Milwaukee, the team they need to catch to slip into the playoffs. If they make the playoffs, they will have the worst record of a qualifying team in decades, since they have already lost 43 times, but the bottom of the East is so weak that they just might pull it off.
Minnesota also had a great week, nearly upsetting the Lakers on Wednesday before breaking through last night against the top-ranked Oklahoma City Thunder, taking down the defending Western Conference champs for their second win of the week. While they haven't been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet, it's almost a certainty that it will happen this week, so once again they'll have to wait for next year.
No list of the league's hottest teams would be complete without including the Sacramento Kings, who have been a fixture on this list for the last month. They keep on winning games that they aren't expected to, such as their road win at Golden State this week. Tonight they are hosting the Los Angeles Lakers, and there are several teams that would be grateful if they continued their hot streak.
Saturday, March 30, 2013
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Updated NCAA Tournament Odds - 26 Mar
2 full rounds are down, and 68 teams have been whittled down to 16, but which of those teams has a realistic chance of winning it all? I've added in all of the past week's results, including those from the NIT, and have recalculated each team's odds of advancing deeper into the tournament. I'll start out with each team's current ranking according to my formula, then go into the breakdown.
TW. (LW) Team
1. (1) Louisville
2. (3) Florida
3. (2) Indiana
4. (5) Duke
6. (6) Kansas
7. (7) Ohio State
8. (12) Michigan
9. (13) Michigan State
10. (11) Syracuse
12. (17) Miami
15. (21) Arizona
19. (29) Wichita State
34. (54) Oregon
43. (38) Marquette
45. (49) LaSalle
84. (122) Florida Gulf Coast
Best Losing Teams
5. (4) Gonzaga
11. (14) VCU
13. (9) Creighton
14. (8) Wisconsin
16. (10) Pittsburgh
17. (15) Georgetown
18. (26) Minnesota
Odds of Making the Final Four
Florida - 57.1%
Louisville - 47.6%
Indiana - 42.8%
Ohio State - 35.7%
Duke - 27.2%
Miami - 25.6%
Wichita State - 25.0%
Arizona - 24.5%
Kansas - 22.4%
Syracuse - 21.7%
Michigan - 19.1%
Michigan State - 18.0%
LaSalle - 14.7%
Florida's path to the Final Four got much easier with Georgetown's demise in the first round, giving them the edge as the most likely team to represent its region. Louisville, Indiana, and Ohio State round out the most likely Final Four.
Odds of Winning the Championship
Florida - 21.3%
Louisville - 18.8%
Indiana - 13.0%
Duke - 8.1%
Ohio State - 7.0%
Kansas - 5.7%
Michigan - 4.4%
Miami - 4.3%
Michigan State - 4.2%
Syracuse - 4.0%
Arizona - 3.5%
Wichita State - 3.0%
Florida has also jumped to the top of this list, becoming the most likely team to win the title, although that doesn't make them the best team, just the one with the best chance to get there and win it. The Big 10 has a 28.6% chance of having the champion, while the Big East has 23.6% odds, with 7 teams representing the nation's two best conferences.
Random Championship Game Odds
All #1's - 11.2%
All Red - 11.0%
All Big 10 - 8.1% (All Big 10 Final Four - 0.5%)
All Birds - 5.1%
All Big East - 3.7%
All #3's - 3.7%
All State Nicknames - 3.6%
All #2's - 3.2%
All M's - 2.1%
All Colored Mascots - 1.9%
All ACC - 1.6%
All Kansas - 1.0%
All Mammals - 0.9%
All Michigan - 0.9%
All Mid-Majors - 0.04%
All Double Digit Seeds - 0.02%
Best Teams Left Out
Of the 8 teams that I felt should not have been left out of the field, 7 won their first NIT games, with only Kentucky losing. 5 of the 8 are still alive and among the final 8 teams in the NIT, and the two that lost between the first round and now lost to one of the 5 still alive.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Of the 8 teams I felt should have been left out, only LaSalle is still alive, and they were only one spot below my original tournament cutoff. Of the other 7, 3 won a game before falling in the round of 32, and 4 didn't even get out of the gates.
Underseeded Teams
On my underseeded teams list, Ole Miss and Minnesota both pulled off opening round upsets, while the others weren't able to overcome their poor seeding to keep themselves alive.
Overseeded Teams
Only 2 of my overseeded teams are still alive, and Marquette is lucky to be there, nearly falling in each of its first two games.
Number of First-Round Upsets
I predicted 10.4, and there were 10 that actually happened, so this one was right on for the second year in a row.
Most Likely Upsets
7 of the 10 upsets that happened were on my list of the 14 most likely upsets, just like last year, with 3 of the less likely ones coming through.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to pull off an Upset
I gave Florida Gulf Coast 20.3% odds of upsetting Georgetown, and while that was the lowest of any #15 seed, they pulled it off, fulfilling the one huge upset guess.
Number of Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
I predicted 3.5, and there are exactly 3 still alive, so this one was also right on.
Most Likely Cinderellas
Oregon and LaSalle were both on my top 10 Cinderellas list, but Florida Gulf Coast was not even on the radar, so I didn't catch them all this time.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
10 of my 12 most likely teams are still in the running, with Gonzaga and Georgetown not living up to expectations.
TW. (LW) Team
1. (1) Louisville
2. (3) Florida
3. (2) Indiana
4. (5) Duke
6. (6) Kansas
7. (7) Ohio State
8. (12) Michigan
9. (13) Michigan State
10. (11) Syracuse
12. (17) Miami
15. (21) Arizona
19. (29) Wichita State
34. (54) Oregon
43. (38) Marquette
45. (49) LaSalle
84. (122) Florida Gulf Coast
Best Losing Teams
5. (4) Gonzaga
11. (14) VCU
13. (9) Creighton
14. (8) Wisconsin
16. (10) Pittsburgh
17. (15) Georgetown
18. (26) Minnesota
Odds of Making the Final Four
Florida - 57.1%
Louisville - 47.6%
Indiana - 42.8%
Ohio State - 35.7%
Duke - 27.2%
Miami - 25.6%
Wichita State - 25.0%
Arizona - 24.5%
Kansas - 22.4%
Syracuse - 21.7%
Michigan - 19.1%
Michigan State - 18.0%
LaSalle - 14.7%
Florida's path to the Final Four got much easier with Georgetown's demise in the first round, giving them the edge as the most likely team to represent its region. Louisville, Indiana, and Ohio State round out the most likely Final Four.
Odds of Winning the Championship
Florida - 21.3%
Louisville - 18.8%
Indiana - 13.0%
Duke - 8.1%
Ohio State - 7.0%
Kansas - 5.7%
Michigan - 4.4%
Miami - 4.3%
Michigan State - 4.2%
Syracuse - 4.0%
Arizona - 3.5%
Wichita State - 3.0%
Florida has also jumped to the top of this list, becoming the most likely team to win the title, although that doesn't make them the best team, just the one with the best chance to get there and win it. The Big 10 has a 28.6% chance of having the champion, while the Big East has 23.6% odds, with 7 teams representing the nation's two best conferences.
Random Championship Game Odds
All #1's - 11.2%
All Red - 11.0%
All Big 10 - 8.1% (All Big 10 Final Four - 0.5%)
All Birds - 5.1%
All Big East - 3.7%
All #3's - 3.7%
All State Nicknames - 3.6%
All #2's - 3.2%
All M's - 2.1%
All Colored Mascots - 1.9%
All ACC - 1.6%
All Kansas - 1.0%
All Mammals - 0.9%
All Michigan - 0.9%
All Mid-Majors - 0.04%
All Double Digit Seeds - 0.02%
Best Teams Left Out
Of the 8 teams that I felt should not have been left out of the field, 7 won their first NIT games, with only Kentucky losing. 5 of the 8 are still alive and among the final 8 teams in the NIT, and the two that lost between the first round and now lost to one of the 5 still alive.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Of the 8 teams I felt should have been left out, only LaSalle is still alive, and they were only one spot below my original tournament cutoff. Of the other 7, 3 won a game before falling in the round of 32, and 4 didn't even get out of the gates.
Underseeded Teams
On my underseeded teams list, Ole Miss and Minnesota both pulled off opening round upsets, while the others weren't able to overcome their poor seeding to keep themselves alive.
Overseeded Teams
Only 2 of my overseeded teams are still alive, and Marquette is lucky to be there, nearly falling in each of its first two games.
Number of First-Round Upsets
I predicted 10.4, and there were 10 that actually happened, so this one was right on for the second year in a row.
Most Likely Upsets
7 of the 10 upsets that happened were on my list of the 14 most likely upsets, just like last year, with 3 of the less likely ones coming through.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to pull off an Upset
I gave Florida Gulf Coast 20.3% odds of upsetting Georgetown, and while that was the lowest of any #15 seed, they pulled it off, fulfilling the one huge upset guess.
Number of Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
I predicted 3.5, and there are exactly 3 still alive, so this one was also right on.
Most Likely Cinderellas
Oregon and LaSalle were both on my top 10 Cinderellas list, but Florida Gulf Coast was not even on the radar, so I didn't catch them all this time.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
10 of my 12 most likely teams are still in the running, with Gonzaga and Georgetown not living up to expectations.
Saturday, March 23, 2013
NBA Rankings - 23 Mar
Teams have been gobbling up playoff berths all week, leaving only 8 spots up for grabs, but since the 4 in the East are pretty much already determined and Memphis won't miss out, there are really only 6 teams going for the final 3 spots in the West. Two teams are on winning streaks of at least 14 games, with Miami's streak becoming the first ever to get within 10 of the Lakers' amazing 33-game streak 31 years ago. Here are my current rankings, with teams grouped by similar level of performance and projected final record in parentheses, as well as projected seeding and the change in projected record from last week.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (Projected) Seed (Change)
1. (1) Oklahoma City (3-2) 51-19 (60-22) 2W (-2)
2. (3) Miami (5-0) 54-14 (65-17) 1E (+1)
3. (2) San Antonio (3-0) 53-16 (61-21) 1W
4. (4) LA Clippers (2-1) 47-22 (56-26) 4W
5. (5) Denver (4-0) 48-22 (56-26) 3W (+2)
6. (8) Indiana (3-2) 43-26 (51-31) 2E (-1)
7. (6) Memphis (2-3) 46-22 (54-28) 5W (-2)
8. (7) Houston (3-1) 38-31 (46-36) 6W
9. (10) New York (3-1) 41-26 (50-32) 3E (+2)
10. (12) Brooklyn (2-1) 40-28 (48-34) 4E (+1)
11. (9) LA Lakers (2-2) 36-34 (42-40) 8W (-1)
12. (15) Golden State (2-2) 39-31 (46-36) 7W (+1)
13. (11) Dallas (3-2) 33-36 (40-42) 10W (+1)
14. (13) Boston (1-3) 36-32 (43-39) 7E (-2)
15. (14) Atlanta (3-2) 38-31 (45-37) 5E
16. (16) Utah (1-3) 34-35 (41-41) 9W
17. (18) Portland (3-2) 33-36 (38-44) 11W
18. (17) Chicago (1-2) 36-31 (44-38) 6E
19. (20) Milwaukee (2-3) 34-34 (40-42) 8E (-1)
20. (24) Minnesota (2-3) 24-43 (31-51) 12W (+1)
21. (19) Toronto (1-3) 26-43 (32-50) 9E (-2)
22. (22) Washington (4-1) 25-43 (31-51) 11E (+2)
23. (25) Sacramento (2-1) 25-44 (29-53) 13W (+1)
24. (21) New Orleans (2-3) 24-46 (28-54) 14W (-1)
25. (23) Cleveland (0-5) 22-47 (28-54) 13E (-1)
26. (26) Philadelphia (2-2) 26-42 (32-50) 10E (+2)
27. (27) Detroit (0-3) 23-47 (28-54) 12E (-1)
28. (28) Phoenix (1-4) 23-47 (26-56) 15W (-1)
29. (29) Orlando (0-5) 18-52 (21-61) 14E
30. (30) Charlotte (2-2) 16-52 (19-63) 15E (+1)
I didn't expect much out of Golden State this week as they headed out for their final extended road trip of the season, so the fact that they won 2 of 3 and won them both convincingly makes me think that the Warriors are pretty solidly in the playoffs. 9 of their final 12 games are at home, and only 4 of those games are against teams that will probably be in the playoffs, 2 coming against the Lakers, so the Warriors should finish with a pretty good record and could possibly get to the #6 spot and avoid the Thunder or Spurs in the first round.
Not only did Brooklyn clinch a playoff berth with their win in Dallas last night, they also dealt a serious blow to the Mavericks' hopes, especially considering that the Jazz and Lakers also lost last night, and it would have allowed the Mavs to make up a full game on both. The Nets pulled away from Atlanta this week and are looking like a pretty solid #4 seed now, which they'll need to get through the first round, since they won't be going any farther.
New York won 3 straight this week and also clinched a playoff berth, and it looks like they are disputing Indiana's claim to be the second-best team in the East. New York obviously has more star power than Indiana, but having home court when the two face off in round 2 would certainly help their chances of reaching an Eastern Conference Final showdown with the smoking Heat.
Portland's week didn't start off too well, losing at Milwaukee and Philadelphia, two teams that wouldn't even be in the playoff discussion in the West, but then they took down Atlanta and Chicago, two teams that will be in, which kept the Blazers' season alive. I still have them being left out, mostly because of the strength of their remaining schedule, which contains only teams that will make the playoffs or are still alive (Dallas and Utah). Not a single cupcake the rest of the way gives them no chance of passing 3 teams in the next month.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (Projected) Seed (Change)
1. (1) Oklahoma City (3-2) 51-19 (60-22) 2W (-2)
2. (3) Miami (5-0) 54-14 (65-17) 1E (+1)
3. (2) San Antonio (3-0) 53-16 (61-21) 1W
4. (4) LA Clippers (2-1) 47-22 (56-26) 4W
5. (5) Denver (4-0) 48-22 (56-26) 3W (+2)
6. (8) Indiana (3-2) 43-26 (51-31) 2E (-1)
7. (6) Memphis (2-3) 46-22 (54-28) 5W (-2)
8. (7) Houston (3-1) 38-31 (46-36) 6W
9. (10) New York (3-1) 41-26 (50-32) 3E (+2)
10. (12) Brooklyn (2-1) 40-28 (48-34) 4E (+1)
11. (9) LA Lakers (2-2) 36-34 (42-40) 8W (-1)
12. (15) Golden State (2-2) 39-31 (46-36) 7W (+1)
13. (11) Dallas (3-2) 33-36 (40-42) 10W (+1)
14. (13) Boston (1-3) 36-32 (43-39) 7E (-2)
15. (14) Atlanta (3-2) 38-31 (45-37) 5E
16. (16) Utah (1-3) 34-35 (41-41) 9W
17. (18) Portland (3-2) 33-36 (38-44) 11W
18. (17) Chicago (1-2) 36-31 (44-38) 6E
19. (20) Milwaukee (2-3) 34-34 (40-42) 8E (-1)
20. (24) Minnesota (2-3) 24-43 (31-51) 12W (+1)
21. (19) Toronto (1-3) 26-43 (32-50) 9E (-2)
22. (22) Washington (4-1) 25-43 (31-51) 11E (+2)
23. (25) Sacramento (2-1) 25-44 (29-53) 13W (+1)
24. (21) New Orleans (2-3) 24-46 (28-54) 14W (-1)
25. (23) Cleveland (0-5) 22-47 (28-54) 13E (-1)
26. (26) Philadelphia (2-2) 26-42 (32-50) 10E (+2)
27. (27) Detroit (0-3) 23-47 (28-54) 12E (-1)
28. (28) Phoenix (1-4) 23-47 (26-56) 15W (-1)
29. (29) Orlando (0-5) 18-52 (21-61) 14E
30. (30) Charlotte (2-2) 16-52 (19-63) 15E (+1)
I didn't expect much out of Golden State this week as they headed out for their final extended road trip of the season, so the fact that they won 2 of 3 and won them both convincingly makes me think that the Warriors are pretty solidly in the playoffs. 9 of their final 12 games are at home, and only 4 of those games are against teams that will probably be in the playoffs, 2 coming against the Lakers, so the Warriors should finish with a pretty good record and could possibly get to the #6 spot and avoid the Thunder or Spurs in the first round.
Not only did Brooklyn clinch a playoff berth with their win in Dallas last night, they also dealt a serious blow to the Mavericks' hopes, especially considering that the Jazz and Lakers also lost last night, and it would have allowed the Mavs to make up a full game on both. The Nets pulled away from Atlanta this week and are looking like a pretty solid #4 seed now, which they'll need to get through the first round, since they won't be going any farther.
New York won 3 straight this week and also clinched a playoff berth, and it looks like they are disputing Indiana's claim to be the second-best team in the East. New York obviously has more star power than Indiana, but having home court when the two face off in round 2 would certainly help their chances of reaching an Eastern Conference Final showdown with the smoking Heat.
Portland's week didn't start off too well, losing at Milwaukee and Philadelphia, two teams that wouldn't even be in the playoff discussion in the West, but then they took down Atlanta and Chicago, two teams that will be in, which kept the Blazers' season alive. I still have them being left out, mostly because of the strength of their remaining schedule, which contains only teams that will make the playoffs or are still alive (Dallas and Utah). Not a single cupcake the rest of the way gives them no chance of passing 3 teams in the next month.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
College Basketball Bracket Odds and Predictions
The wait is over. The greatest month of basketball begins tonight, as 68 teams are whittled down to one, and the field has never been more wide-open. I have broken down the odds of each team advancing to any point in the tournament, and am also predicting the total number of upsets and Cinderellas to expect and which teams are over- and under-rated. Let the fun begin.
Best Teams Left Out of the Field
Teams are listed according to final ranking by my formula.
37. Stony Brook
39. Iowa
40. Virginia
42. Baylor
43. Kentucky
45. Denver
46. Southern Miss
47. Maryland
None of these teams is a major snub, although I really would have liked to see Stony Brook play on, after the way they dominated the American East Conference through the regular season before falling in the conference tournament. Of the five teams I felt were left out of the field last year, 3 were included in this season's field: Miami, Middle Tennessee, and Arizona. You can expect some of these teams to be strong again next year.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Teams listed by my final ranking, with tournament seed in parentheses.
49. LaSalle (13)
52. Oklahoma (10)
53. UCLA (6)
55. Colorado (10)
58. Butler (6)
63. Temple (9)
64. Villanova (9)
72. California (12)
The bottom 3 are the ones I definitely feel should not be in the tourney, but if only the best teams got in, none of these teams would still be playing games that matter. Among the 5 teams I felt shouldn't have made it last year, 3 lost in the first round, with Xavier making the Sweet 16 due to two very lucky matchups.
Most Underseeded Teams
These teams were not seeded as high as I feel they should have been according to their body of work over the course of the season, and that makes each of them a candidate to pull off some early upsets.
1. Middle Tennessee
2. Ole Miss
3. Saint Mary's
4. Pittsburgh
5. Albany
6. Minnesota
7. Missouri
8. Creighton
9. Boise State
10. Belmont
11. Wisconsin
Among last season's underseeded teams, Florida had the most success, going two rounds farther than expected as they advanced to the Elite Eight as a #7 seed. Belmont makes its third straight appearance on this list, but not at the #1 spot that they are used to. Sadly, Middle Tennessee and Saint Mary's have to play each other in a play-in game, so one of them will not be able to show what they can do, but either one should have a good chance at beating Memphis in the round of 64. Ole Miss and Wisconsin are also playing in the first round, so one of them will also be going home without going as far as they should.
Most Overseeded Teams
These are the teams that were given too much credit for their season, and may fall prey to an early-round upset.
1. Marquette
2. Butler
3. Kansas State
4. UCLA
5. UNLV
6. Temple
7. Villanova
8. Miami
9. Memphis
10. Illinois
Last season, 7 of the 9 teams I put on this list lost in the first round, and Xavier would have but they were facing another team on this list in round 1. Kansas State, UCLA, and Memphis are all in the most trouble of the teams on this list, since they are all facing teams on my underseeded list.
Number of First-Round Upsets
10.4
Last season I predicted 10.9 first-round upsets, and there were a total of 10, so my prediction was right on. Anywhere from 9 to 11 is quite likely this time around, so make sure not to pick too many or too few.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
Which upsets should you picks to fill in those 10.4 spots? Here are the ones that are most likely to happen.
(11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA - 57.4%
(11) Middle Tennessee/Saint Mary's over (6) Memphis - 54.7%
(9) Missouri over (8) Colorado State - 53.7%
(11) Bucknell over (6) Butler - 50.3%
(10) Colorado over (7) Illinois - 48.5%
(10) Iowa State over (7) Notre Dame - 48.1%
(11) Belmont over (6) Arizona - 46.9%
(13) Boise State/LaSalle over (4) Kansas State - 46.3%
(14) Davidson over (3) Marquette - 44.7%
(10) Oklahoma over (7) San Diego State - 43.7%
(12) Ole Miss over (5) Wisconsin - 41.5%
(9) Temple over (8) North Carolina State - 41.3%
(12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State - 40.8%
(9) Wichita State over (8) Pittsburgh - 40.7%
(9) Villanova over (8) North Carolina - 40.4%
These 15 games are the best places to look for your upsets. Last season, 7 of the 10 upsets that happened were on my list of 13 possible upsets, so you should definitely pull most of your upsets from here.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull Off an Upset
(15) Albany over (2) Duke - 27.2%
(15) Iona over (2) Ohio State - 23.0%
(15) Pacific over (2) Miami - 20.7%
(15) Florida Gulf Coast over (2) Georgetown - 20.3%
This season's batch of #16 seeds is pretty weak, so it's up to the #15 seeds to pull off the big upset. Last season, I listed Lehigh over Duke as the most likely huge upset, and I'm sure you remember what happened to the Blue Devils. There's a pretty good chance that you will see one of these upsets happen this year, but I wouldn't go so far as to guarantee it.
Most Likely Cinderellas
These are the lower-seeded teams most likely to reach the Sweet 16.
(11) Middle Tennessee/Saint Mary's - 28.1% (16.1%/12.0%)
(11) Belmont - 24.4%
(11) Bucknell - 23.6%
(12) Ole Miss - 22.6%
(14) Davidson - 22.4%
(10) Colorado - 21.2%
(10) Iowa State - 20.3%
(10) Oklahoma - 18.7%
(12) Oregon - 18.6%
(13) Boise State/LaSalle - 17.8% (9.3%/8.5%)
(9) Missouri - 16.5%
(11) Minnesota - 16.2%
(12) Akron - 15.2%
Last season, all 3 actual Cinderellas were listed among my top 9, so you probably shouldn't look elsewhere for your deep tourney runs by low seeds.
Number of Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
3.5
Last season I predicted 3.8, and there ended up being 3, so you'd be pretty safe to pick 3 of them to play into the second week again this year.
Number of #1 Seeds in the Final Four
1.3
Last season the number was 1.1, and exactly one top seed made it to the Final Four, so picking one or two is probably the best way to go. Seeing 3 or 4 is very unlikely.
Odds That a #1 Seed Wins the Tournament
44.9%
Last season I only had it at 37.2%, and Kentucky ended up winning, so this year there's a pretty good chance that one of those 4 will be the final team standing.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
(1) Indiana - 77.5%
(3) Florida - 74.9%
(1) Louisville - 70.9%
(1) Gonzaga - 64.4%
(1) Kansas - 64.2%
(4) Syracuse - 54.7%
(2) Miami - 48.9%
(2) Ohio State - 48.5%
(2) Georgetown - 47.4%
(2) Duke - 45.2%
(4) Michigan - 42.6%
(3) Michigan State - 38.6%
(4) Saint Louis - 37.8%
(5) Wisconsin - 37.0%
(3) New Mexico - 36.8%
(5) VCU - 34.8%
(5) Oklahoma State - 32.5%
(7) Creighton - 31.1%
(3) Marquette - 30.7%
Last season, I picked the 10 most likely Sweet 16 teams, and 7 of them made it at least that far. Wisconsin is the seed most likely to make the Sweet 16 that shouldn't according to its seed, and Florida and Syracuse are the two teams that aren't #1 or #2 who are most likely to get through this week.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
(1) Indiana - 42.9%
(1) Louisville - 35.4%
(3) Florida - 34.9%
(1) Gonzaga - 28.8%
(1) Kansas - 20.7%
(2) Ohio State - 15.5%
(2) Duke - 15.4%
(4) Syracuse - 14.0%
(2) Miami - 12.2%
Many analysts have said that Indiana has the toughest path to the Final Four of any of the top seeds, but in fact the opposite is true. Their regions features overrated teams at #2, #3, #5, #6, #7, and #9, with only Syracuse posing a real threat to the Hoosiers making a deep run. Last season, 3 of the 5 teams I listed as most likely to make the Final Four were there, with Louisville the only surprise.
Most Likely Champions
(1) Indiana - 16.0%
(1) Louisville - 13.7%
(3) Florida - 12.9%
(1) Gonzaga - 9.3%
(1) Kansas - 5.9%
(2) Duke - 4.7%
(2) Ohio State - 3.8%
(4) Syracuse - 3.0%
(2) Miami - 2.2%
(4) Michigan - 2.1%
(5) Wisconsin - 2.0%
While I don't think Indiana is the best team, they are the most likely to win because of their easy path to the Final Four. Last season, I had Kentucky as the most likely team to win the championship, just ahead of Ohio State.
Overall Bracket
This is how the bracket will turn out if the better team wins every game, with upset picks in italics.
First Round
(1) Louisville
(9) Missouri
(5) Oklahoma State
(4) Saint Louis
(11) Middle Tennessee/Saint Mary's
(3) Michigan State
(7) Creighton
(2) Duke
(1) Gonzaga
(8) Pittsburgh
(5) Wisconsin
(4) Kansas State
(6) Arizona
(3) New Mexico
(7) Notre Dame
(2) Ohio State
(1) Kansas
(8) North Carolina
(5) VCU
(4) Michigan
(11) Minnesota
(3) Florida
(7) San Diego State
(2) Georgetown
(1) Indiana
(8) North Carolina State
(5) UNLV
(4) Syracuse
(11) Bucknell
(3) Marquette
(7) Illinois
(2) Miami
Sweet 16
(1) Louisville
(5) Wisconsin
(3) New Mexico
(2) Ohio State
(1) Gonzaga
(4) Saint Louis
(3) Michigan State
(2) Duke
(1) Kansas
(4) Michigan
(3) Florida
(2) Georgetown
(1) Indiana
(4) Syracuse
(3) Marquette
(2) Miami
Elite Eight
(1) Louisville
(2) Ohio State
(1) Gonzaga
(2) Duke
(1) Kansas
(3) Florida
(1) Indiana
(2) Miami
Final Four
(1) Louisville
(1) Gonzaga
(3) Florida
(1) Indiana
Championship
(1) Louisville
(1) Indiana
Champion
(1) Louisville
These obviously aren't my official picks, because I like to try to include plenty of upsets in the brackets I submit to contests, but last season, picking according to my formula before the tourney began, I was able to pick 75% of the first round correct, and at least half of the teams that would advance to each round, although Ohio State was my pick to win last season, which didn't quite happen. Feel free to use these odds as a guideline to help you find the best upsets and favorites to ride through the tourney, and have fun watching the greatest month in sports.
Best Teams Left Out of the Field
Teams are listed according to final ranking by my formula.
37. Stony Brook
39. Iowa
40. Virginia
42. Baylor
43. Kentucky
45. Denver
46. Southern Miss
47. Maryland
None of these teams is a major snub, although I really would have liked to see Stony Brook play on, after the way they dominated the American East Conference through the regular season before falling in the conference tournament. Of the five teams I felt were left out of the field last year, 3 were included in this season's field: Miami, Middle Tennessee, and Arizona. You can expect some of these teams to be strong again next year.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Teams listed by my final ranking, with tournament seed in parentheses.
49. LaSalle (13)
52. Oklahoma (10)
53. UCLA (6)
55. Colorado (10)
58. Butler (6)
63. Temple (9)
64. Villanova (9)
72. California (12)
The bottom 3 are the ones I definitely feel should not be in the tourney, but if only the best teams got in, none of these teams would still be playing games that matter. Among the 5 teams I felt shouldn't have made it last year, 3 lost in the first round, with Xavier making the Sweet 16 due to two very lucky matchups.
Most Underseeded Teams
These teams were not seeded as high as I feel they should have been according to their body of work over the course of the season, and that makes each of them a candidate to pull off some early upsets.
1. Middle Tennessee
2. Ole Miss
3. Saint Mary's
4. Pittsburgh
5. Albany
6. Minnesota
7. Missouri
8. Creighton
9. Boise State
10. Belmont
11. Wisconsin
Among last season's underseeded teams, Florida had the most success, going two rounds farther than expected as they advanced to the Elite Eight as a #7 seed. Belmont makes its third straight appearance on this list, but not at the #1 spot that they are used to. Sadly, Middle Tennessee and Saint Mary's have to play each other in a play-in game, so one of them will not be able to show what they can do, but either one should have a good chance at beating Memphis in the round of 64. Ole Miss and Wisconsin are also playing in the first round, so one of them will also be going home without going as far as they should.
Most Overseeded Teams
These are the teams that were given too much credit for their season, and may fall prey to an early-round upset.
1. Marquette
2. Butler
3. Kansas State
4. UCLA
5. UNLV
6. Temple
7. Villanova
8. Miami
9. Memphis
10. Illinois
Last season, 7 of the 9 teams I put on this list lost in the first round, and Xavier would have but they were facing another team on this list in round 1. Kansas State, UCLA, and Memphis are all in the most trouble of the teams on this list, since they are all facing teams on my underseeded list.
Number of First-Round Upsets
10.4
Last season I predicted 10.9 first-round upsets, and there were a total of 10, so my prediction was right on. Anywhere from 9 to 11 is quite likely this time around, so make sure not to pick too many or too few.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
Which upsets should you picks to fill in those 10.4 spots? Here are the ones that are most likely to happen.
(11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA - 57.4%
(11) Middle Tennessee/Saint Mary's over (6) Memphis - 54.7%
(9) Missouri over (8) Colorado State - 53.7%
(11) Bucknell over (6) Butler - 50.3%
(10) Colorado over (7) Illinois - 48.5%
(10) Iowa State over (7) Notre Dame - 48.1%
(11) Belmont over (6) Arizona - 46.9%
(13) Boise State/LaSalle over (4) Kansas State - 46.3%
(14) Davidson over (3) Marquette - 44.7%
(10) Oklahoma over (7) San Diego State - 43.7%
(12) Ole Miss over (5) Wisconsin - 41.5%
(9) Temple over (8) North Carolina State - 41.3%
(12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State - 40.8%
(9) Wichita State over (8) Pittsburgh - 40.7%
(9) Villanova over (8) North Carolina - 40.4%
These 15 games are the best places to look for your upsets. Last season, 7 of the 10 upsets that happened were on my list of 13 possible upsets, so you should definitely pull most of your upsets from here.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull Off an Upset
(15) Albany over (2) Duke - 27.2%
(15) Iona over (2) Ohio State - 23.0%
(15) Pacific over (2) Miami - 20.7%
(15) Florida Gulf Coast over (2) Georgetown - 20.3%
This season's batch of #16 seeds is pretty weak, so it's up to the #15 seeds to pull off the big upset. Last season, I listed Lehigh over Duke as the most likely huge upset, and I'm sure you remember what happened to the Blue Devils. There's a pretty good chance that you will see one of these upsets happen this year, but I wouldn't go so far as to guarantee it.
Most Likely Cinderellas
These are the lower-seeded teams most likely to reach the Sweet 16.
(11) Middle Tennessee/Saint Mary's - 28.1% (16.1%/12.0%)
(11) Belmont - 24.4%
(11) Bucknell - 23.6%
(12) Ole Miss - 22.6%
(14) Davidson - 22.4%
(10) Colorado - 21.2%
(10) Iowa State - 20.3%
(10) Oklahoma - 18.7%
(12) Oregon - 18.6%
(13) Boise State/LaSalle - 17.8% (9.3%/8.5%)
(9) Missouri - 16.5%
(11) Minnesota - 16.2%
(12) Akron - 15.2%
Last season, all 3 actual Cinderellas were listed among my top 9, so you probably shouldn't look elsewhere for your deep tourney runs by low seeds.
Number of Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
3.5
Last season I predicted 3.8, and there ended up being 3, so you'd be pretty safe to pick 3 of them to play into the second week again this year.
Number of #1 Seeds in the Final Four
1.3
Last season the number was 1.1, and exactly one top seed made it to the Final Four, so picking one or two is probably the best way to go. Seeing 3 or 4 is very unlikely.
Odds That a #1 Seed Wins the Tournament
44.9%
Last season I only had it at 37.2%, and Kentucky ended up winning, so this year there's a pretty good chance that one of those 4 will be the final team standing.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
(1) Indiana - 77.5%
(3) Florida - 74.9%
(1) Louisville - 70.9%
(1) Gonzaga - 64.4%
(1) Kansas - 64.2%
(4) Syracuse - 54.7%
(2) Miami - 48.9%
(2) Ohio State - 48.5%
(2) Georgetown - 47.4%
(2) Duke - 45.2%
(4) Michigan - 42.6%
(3) Michigan State - 38.6%
(4) Saint Louis - 37.8%
(5) Wisconsin - 37.0%
(3) New Mexico - 36.8%
(5) VCU - 34.8%
(5) Oklahoma State - 32.5%
(7) Creighton - 31.1%
(3) Marquette - 30.7%
Last season, I picked the 10 most likely Sweet 16 teams, and 7 of them made it at least that far. Wisconsin is the seed most likely to make the Sweet 16 that shouldn't according to its seed, and Florida and Syracuse are the two teams that aren't #1 or #2 who are most likely to get through this week.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
(1) Indiana - 42.9%
(1) Louisville - 35.4%
(3) Florida - 34.9%
(1) Gonzaga - 28.8%
(1) Kansas - 20.7%
(2) Ohio State - 15.5%
(2) Duke - 15.4%
(4) Syracuse - 14.0%
(2) Miami - 12.2%
Many analysts have said that Indiana has the toughest path to the Final Four of any of the top seeds, but in fact the opposite is true. Their regions features overrated teams at #2, #3, #5, #6, #7, and #9, with only Syracuse posing a real threat to the Hoosiers making a deep run. Last season, 3 of the 5 teams I listed as most likely to make the Final Four were there, with Louisville the only surprise.
Most Likely Champions
(1) Indiana - 16.0%
(1) Louisville - 13.7%
(3) Florida - 12.9%
(1) Gonzaga - 9.3%
(1) Kansas - 5.9%
(2) Duke - 4.7%
(2) Ohio State - 3.8%
(4) Syracuse - 3.0%
(2) Miami - 2.2%
(4) Michigan - 2.1%
(5) Wisconsin - 2.0%
While I don't think Indiana is the best team, they are the most likely to win because of their easy path to the Final Four. Last season, I had Kentucky as the most likely team to win the championship, just ahead of Ohio State.
Overall Bracket
This is how the bracket will turn out if the better team wins every game, with upset picks in italics.
First Round
(1) Louisville
(9) Missouri
(5) Oklahoma State
(4) Saint Louis
(11) Middle Tennessee/Saint Mary's
(3) Michigan State
(7) Creighton
(2) Duke
(1) Gonzaga
(8) Pittsburgh
(5) Wisconsin
(4) Kansas State
(6) Arizona
(3) New Mexico
(7) Notre Dame
(2) Ohio State
(1) Kansas
(8) North Carolina
(5) VCU
(4) Michigan
(11) Minnesota
(3) Florida
(7) San Diego State
(2) Georgetown
(1) Indiana
(8) North Carolina State
(5) UNLV
(4) Syracuse
(11) Bucknell
(3) Marquette
(7) Illinois
(2) Miami
Sweet 16
(1) Louisville
(5) Wisconsin
(3) New Mexico
(2) Ohio State
(1) Gonzaga
(4) Saint Louis
(3) Michigan State
(2) Duke
(1) Kansas
(4) Michigan
(3) Florida
(2) Georgetown
(1) Indiana
(4) Syracuse
(3) Marquette
(2) Miami
Elite Eight
(1) Louisville
(2) Ohio State
(1) Gonzaga
(2) Duke
(1) Kansas
(3) Florida
(1) Indiana
(2) Miami
Final Four
(1) Louisville
(1) Gonzaga
(3) Florida
(1) Indiana
Championship
(1) Louisville
(1) Indiana
Champion
(1) Louisville
These obviously aren't my official picks, because I like to try to include plenty of upsets in the brackets I submit to contests, but last season, picking according to my formula before the tourney began, I was able to pick 75% of the first round correct, and at least half of the teams that would advance to each round, although Ohio State was my pick to win last season, which didn't quite happen. Feel free to use these odds as a guideline to help you find the best upsets and favorites to ride through the tourney, and have fun watching the greatest month in sports.
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Basketball Predictions - 17 Mar
Upset picks are in italics.
NBA
Miami at Toronto - Heat by 6
Orlando at Milwaukee - Bucks by 9
New York at LA Clippers - Clippers by 8
Golden State at Houston - Rockets by 8
New Orleans at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 3
Oklahoma City at Dallas - Thunder by 6
Atlanta at Brooklyn - Nets by 3
Sacramento at LA Lakers - Lakers by 9
College Basketball
(25) VCU vs. (16) Saint Louis - Rams by 2
North Carolina vs. (9) Miami - Hurricanes by 1
Ole Miss vs. (13) Florida - Gators by 10
(22) Wisconsin vs. (10) Ohio State - Badgers by 1
Prediction Results
NBA: 4-2 (.667) 663-318 overall (.676)
College Basketball: 14-7 (.667) 1151-325 overall (.780)
Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 127-99 overall (.562)
NBA
Miami at Toronto - Heat by 6
Orlando at Milwaukee - Bucks by 9
New York at LA Clippers - Clippers by 8
Golden State at Houston - Rockets by 8
New Orleans at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 3
Oklahoma City at Dallas - Thunder by 6
Atlanta at Brooklyn - Nets by 3
Sacramento at LA Lakers - Lakers by 9
College Basketball
(25) VCU vs. (16) Saint Louis - Rams by 2
North Carolina vs. (9) Miami - Hurricanes by 1
Ole Miss vs. (13) Florida - Gators by 10
(22) Wisconsin vs. (10) Ohio State - Badgers by 1
Prediction Results
NBA: 4-2 (.667) 663-318 overall (.676)
College Basketball: 14-7 (.667) 1151-325 overall (.780)
Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 127-99 overall (.562)
Saturday, March 16, 2013
Basketball Predictions - 16 Mar
Upset picks are in italics.
College Basketball
Wisconsin vs. (3) Indiana - Hoosiers by 7
(19) Syracuse vs. (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 6
(11) Kansas State vs. (7) Kansas - Jayhawks by 6
(8) Michigan State vs. (10) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 1
North Carolina State vs. (9) Miami - Hurricanes by 1
Alabama vs. (13) Florida - Gators by 15
UNLV vs. (15) New Mexico - Rebels by 5
Butler vs. (16) Saint Louis - Billikens by 4
Southern Miss vs. (20) Memphis - Tigers by 1
Oregon vs. (21) UCLA - Bruins by 1
Massachusetts vs. (25) VCU - Rams by 10
Albany at Vermont - Catamounts by 1
Maryland vs. North Carolina - Tar Heels by 4
Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss - Commodores by 1
Prairie View A&M vs. Southern - Jaguars by 13
North Carolina A&T vs. Morgan State - Bears by 2
Ohio vs. Akron - Zips by 2
Northwestern State vs. Stephen F Austin - Lumberjacks by 4
Weber State at Montana - Grizzlies by 1
UC-Irvine vs. Pacific - Tigers by 1
Texas-Arlington vs. New Mexico State - Aggies by 5
NBA
Phoenix at Washington - Wizards by 6
Charlotte at Boston - Celtics by 14
Indiana at Philadelphia - Pacers by 6
Cleveland at San Antonio - Spurs by 14
Memphis at Utah - Grizzlies by 2
Detroit at Portland - Trail Blazers by 7
Prediction Results
NBA: 8-2 (.800) 659-316 overall (.676)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 115-88 overall (.567)
College Basketball: 29-11 (.725) 1137-328 overall (.776)
Upsets: 3-6 (.333) 126-97 overall (.565)
College Basketball
Wisconsin vs. (3) Indiana - Hoosiers by 7
(19) Syracuse vs. (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 6
(11) Kansas State vs. (7) Kansas - Jayhawks by 6
(8) Michigan State vs. (10) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 1
North Carolina State vs. (9) Miami - Hurricanes by 1
Alabama vs. (13) Florida - Gators by 15
UNLV vs. (15) New Mexico - Rebels by 5
Butler vs. (16) Saint Louis - Billikens by 4
Southern Miss vs. (20) Memphis - Tigers by 1
Oregon vs. (21) UCLA - Bruins by 1
Massachusetts vs. (25) VCU - Rams by 10
Albany at Vermont - Catamounts by 1
Maryland vs. North Carolina - Tar Heels by 4
Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss - Commodores by 1
Prairie View A&M vs. Southern - Jaguars by 13
North Carolina A&T vs. Morgan State - Bears by 2
Ohio vs. Akron - Zips by 2
Northwestern State vs. Stephen F Austin - Lumberjacks by 4
Weber State at Montana - Grizzlies by 1
UC-Irvine vs. Pacific - Tigers by 1
Texas-Arlington vs. New Mexico State - Aggies by 5
NBA
Phoenix at Washington - Wizards by 6
Charlotte at Boston - Celtics by 14
Indiana at Philadelphia - Pacers by 6
Cleveland at San Antonio - Spurs by 14
Memphis at Utah - Grizzlies by 2
Detroit at Portland - Trail Blazers by 7
Prediction Results
NBA: 8-2 (.800) 659-316 overall (.676)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 115-88 overall (.567)
College Basketball: 29-11 (.725) 1137-328 overall (.776)
Upsets: 3-6 (.333) 126-97 overall (.565)
Friday, March 15, 2013
NBA Rankings - 15 Mar
San Antonio has now joined Miami in the playoff berth club, and Oklahoma City is looking to join them this week. Despite the fact that they will be the third team to clinch their berth, they are still the top team in my rankings, holding that spot for the third straight week, even after losing to the Spurs during the week. Here are my full rankings, with teams grouped by similar level of performance and projected final record in parentheses, as well as the change from last week's projection.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (Projected) Seed (Change)
1. (1) Oklahoma City (2-1) 48-17 (62-20) 1W
2. (2) San Antonio (2-1) 50-16 (61-21) 2W (-1)
3. (3) Miami (3-0) 49-14 (64-18) 1E (+1)
4. (4) LA Clippers (1-1) 45-21 (56-26) 3W (-1)
5. (5) Denver (3-0) 44-22 (54-28) 5W (+1)
6. (8) Memphis (3-0) 44-19 (56-26) 4W (+2)
7. (7) Houston (1-1) 35-30 (46-36) 6W (-1)
8. (6) Indiana (1-1) 40-24 (52-30) 2E
9. (10) LA Lakers (2-1) 34-32 (43-39) 8W
10. (9) New York (1-3) 38-25 (48-34) 3E (-2)
11. (16) Dallas (2-1) 30-34 (39-43) 10W (+1)
12. (15) Brooklyn (2-1) 38-27 (47-35) 4E (+1)
13. (11) Boston (1-2) 35-29 (45-37) 6E
14. (12) Atlanta (1-2) 35-29 (45-37) 5E (-1)
15. (17) Golden State (2-1) 37-29 (45-37) 7W
16. (14) Utah (1-2) 33-32 (41-41) 9W (-1)
17. (13) Chicago (0-2) 35-29 (44-38) 7E (-1)
18. (19) Portland (1-2) 30-34 (38-44) 11W
19. (18) Toronto (1-1) 25-40 (34-48) 9E
20. (20) Milwaukee (2-2) 32-31 (41-41) 8E
21. (22) New Orleans (1-2) 22-43 (29-53) 13W
22. (23) Washington (2-1) 21-42 (29-53) 12E
23. (21) Cleveland (1-1) 22-42 (29-53) 11E
24. (24) Minnesota (1-3) 22-40 (30-52) 12W
25. (27) Sacramento (1-1) 23-43 (28-54) 14W
26. (26) Philadelphia (1-2) 24-40 (30-52) 10E
27. (25) Detroit (0-3) 23-44 (29-53) 13E
28. (28) Phoenix (1-2) 22-43 (27-55) 15W
29. (29) Orlando (1-1) 18-47 (21-61) 14E
30. (30) Charlotte (1-1) 14-50 (18-64) 15E (+1)
Sacramento is once again one of the hottest teams in the league, which is quite strange since they are so far out of playoff contention and haven't won consecutive games in over a month, but they blew out the Chicago Bulls by 42 points the other night, getting them their first win over a playoff-bound team since they beat Houston on February 10th. It may not mean much, but I'm sure the fans in Sacramento appreciate the hot finish.
Dallas has also been hot lately, but in their case it could mean something. The Mavericks still have some hope of making the playoffs, although with how hot the Lakers have been lately, it may be tough to catch up with so few games left. Their only loss this week was by 1 point in San Antonio last night, and a win there would have really helped, but instead they had to settle for a moral victory.
Memphis has also been playing well, and their most recent win was a very important one in the playoff race, because it came against the team they are fighting for the #3 seed, the Los Angeles Clippers. Not only did they win the game, but it came in LA, and it gave them 6 straight wins and 14 in their last 15 games, with the only loss coming to Miami, who is on a historic winning streak at the moment.
Speaking of hot, have you seen the Charlotte Bobcats lately? Probably not, but they pulled a surprise upset on Tuesday against Boston, taking out the Celtics in a 26-point blowout, getting their first win over a potential playoff team since last time the Celtics came to town, one month earlier. Charlotte is still the favorite to end up with the worst record and get the best odds in the draft lottery, but you have to give them credit when they do something well, right?
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
LA Lakers at Indiana - Pacers by 6
Charlotte at Toronto - Raptors by 12
New Orleans at Washington - Wizards by 3
Phoenix at Atlanta - Hawks by 9
Minnesota at Houston - Rockets by 11
Orlando at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 21
Miami at Milwaukee - Heat by 6
Cleveland at Dallas - Mavericks by 7
Memphis at Denver - Nuggets by 4
Chicago at Golden State - Warriors by 4
College Basketball
Maryland vs. (2) Duke - Blue Devils by 12
Illinois vs. (3) Indiana - Hoosiers by 12
(24) Notre Dame vs. (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 9
(19) Syracuse vs. (5) Georgetown - Orange by 1
(6) Michigan vs. (22) Wisconsin - Wolverines by 1
Iowa State vs. (7) Kansas - Jayhawks by 5
Iowa vs. (8) Michigan State - Spartans by 5
Boston College vs. (9) Miami - Hurricanes by 9
Nebraska vs. (10) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 14
(14) Oklahoma State vs. (11) Kansas State - Cowboys by 2
LSU vs. (13) Florida - Gators by 18
San Diego State vs. (15) New Mexico - Lobos by 1
Charlotte vs. (16) Saint Louis - Billikens by 12
(18) Arizona vs. (21) UCLA - Wildcats by 4
Tulsa vs. (20) Memphis - Tigers by 10
Saint Joseph's vs. (25) VCU - Rams by 9
Butler vs. LaSalle - Explorers by 2
North Carolina State vs. Virginia - Cavaliers by 1
Tennessee vs. Alabama - Volunteers by 3
Prairie View A&M vs. Jackson State - Tigers by 4
UTEP vs. Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 6
Bethune Cookman vs. Morgan State - Bears by 4
Southeast Louisiana vs. Stephen F Austin - Lumberjacks by 13
Kent State vs. Akron - Zips by 4
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky - Wildcats by 6
North Dakota vs. Weber State - Wildcats by 12
North Carolina A&T vs. Delaware State - Aggies by 5
Sam Houston State vs. Northwestern State - Demons by 6
Florida State vs. North Carolina - Tar Heels by 9
Texas State vs. New Mexico State - Aggies by 12
Western Michigan vs. Ohio - Bobcats by 6
Massachusetts vs. Temple - Owls by 4
Alabama A&M vs. Southern - Jaguars by 14
UC-Irvine vs. Long Beach State - Anteaters by 5
Missouri vs. Ole Miss - Tigers by 3
Northern Colorado at Montana - Grizzlies by 10
Texas-San Antonio vs. Texas-Arlington - Mavericks by 4
Utah vs. Oregon - Ducks by 6
Colorado State at UNLV - Rebels by 5
Cal Poly vs. Pacific - Tigers by 1
Prediction Results
NBA: 1-1 (.500) 651-314 overall (.675)
College Basketball: 32-19 (.627) 1108-317 overall (.778)
Upsets: 5-6 (.455) 123-91 overall (.575)
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (Projected) Seed (Change)
1. (1) Oklahoma City (2-1) 48-17 (62-20) 1W
2. (2) San Antonio (2-1) 50-16 (61-21) 2W (-1)
3. (3) Miami (3-0) 49-14 (64-18) 1E (+1)
4. (4) LA Clippers (1-1) 45-21 (56-26) 3W (-1)
5. (5) Denver (3-0) 44-22 (54-28) 5W (+1)
6. (8) Memphis (3-0) 44-19 (56-26) 4W (+2)
7. (7) Houston (1-1) 35-30 (46-36) 6W (-1)
8. (6) Indiana (1-1) 40-24 (52-30) 2E
9. (10) LA Lakers (2-1) 34-32 (43-39) 8W
10. (9) New York (1-3) 38-25 (48-34) 3E (-2)
11. (16) Dallas (2-1) 30-34 (39-43) 10W (+1)
12. (15) Brooklyn (2-1) 38-27 (47-35) 4E (+1)
13. (11) Boston (1-2) 35-29 (45-37) 6E
14. (12) Atlanta (1-2) 35-29 (45-37) 5E (-1)
15. (17) Golden State (2-1) 37-29 (45-37) 7W
16. (14) Utah (1-2) 33-32 (41-41) 9W (-1)
17. (13) Chicago (0-2) 35-29 (44-38) 7E (-1)
18. (19) Portland (1-2) 30-34 (38-44) 11W
19. (18) Toronto (1-1) 25-40 (34-48) 9E
20. (20) Milwaukee (2-2) 32-31 (41-41) 8E
21. (22) New Orleans (1-2) 22-43 (29-53) 13W
22. (23) Washington (2-1) 21-42 (29-53) 12E
23. (21) Cleveland (1-1) 22-42 (29-53) 11E
24. (24) Minnesota (1-3) 22-40 (30-52) 12W
25. (27) Sacramento (1-1) 23-43 (28-54) 14W
26. (26) Philadelphia (1-2) 24-40 (30-52) 10E
27. (25) Detroit (0-3) 23-44 (29-53) 13E
28. (28) Phoenix (1-2) 22-43 (27-55) 15W
29. (29) Orlando (1-1) 18-47 (21-61) 14E
30. (30) Charlotte (1-1) 14-50 (18-64) 15E (+1)
Sacramento is once again one of the hottest teams in the league, which is quite strange since they are so far out of playoff contention and haven't won consecutive games in over a month, but they blew out the Chicago Bulls by 42 points the other night, getting them their first win over a playoff-bound team since they beat Houston on February 10th. It may not mean much, but I'm sure the fans in Sacramento appreciate the hot finish.
Dallas has also been hot lately, but in their case it could mean something. The Mavericks still have some hope of making the playoffs, although with how hot the Lakers have been lately, it may be tough to catch up with so few games left. Their only loss this week was by 1 point in San Antonio last night, and a win there would have really helped, but instead they had to settle for a moral victory.
Memphis has also been playing well, and their most recent win was a very important one in the playoff race, because it came against the team they are fighting for the #3 seed, the Los Angeles Clippers. Not only did they win the game, but it came in LA, and it gave them 6 straight wins and 14 in their last 15 games, with the only loss coming to Miami, who is on a historic winning streak at the moment.
Speaking of hot, have you seen the Charlotte Bobcats lately? Probably not, but they pulled a surprise upset on Tuesday against Boston, taking out the Celtics in a 26-point blowout, getting their first win over a potential playoff team since last time the Celtics came to town, one month earlier. Charlotte is still the favorite to end up with the worst record and get the best odds in the draft lottery, but you have to give them credit when they do something well, right?
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
LA Lakers at Indiana - Pacers by 6
Charlotte at Toronto - Raptors by 12
New Orleans at Washington - Wizards by 3
Phoenix at Atlanta - Hawks by 9
Minnesota at Houston - Rockets by 11
Orlando at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 21
Miami at Milwaukee - Heat by 6
Cleveland at Dallas - Mavericks by 7
Memphis at Denver - Nuggets by 4
Chicago at Golden State - Warriors by 4
College Basketball
Maryland vs. (2) Duke - Blue Devils by 12
Illinois vs. (3) Indiana - Hoosiers by 12
(24) Notre Dame vs. (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 9
(19) Syracuse vs. (5) Georgetown - Orange by 1
(6) Michigan vs. (22) Wisconsin - Wolverines by 1
Iowa State vs. (7) Kansas - Jayhawks by 5
Iowa vs. (8) Michigan State - Spartans by 5
Boston College vs. (9) Miami - Hurricanes by 9
Nebraska vs. (10) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 14
(14) Oklahoma State vs. (11) Kansas State - Cowboys by 2
LSU vs. (13) Florida - Gators by 18
San Diego State vs. (15) New Mexico - Lobos by 1
Charlotte vs. (16) Saint Louis - Billikens by 12
(18) Arizona vs. (21) UCLA - Wildcats by 4
Tulsa vs. (20) Memphis - Tigers by 10
Saint Joseph's vs. (25) VCU - Rams by 9
Butler vs. LaSalle - Explorers by 2
North Carolina State vs. Virginia - Cavaliers by 1
Tennessee vs. Alabama - Volunteers by 3
Prairie View A&M vs. Jackson State - Tigers by 4
UTEP vs. Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 6
Bethune Cookman vs. Morgan State - Bears by 4
Southeast Louisiana vs. Stephen F Austin - Lumberjacks by 13
Kent State vs. Akron - Zips by 4
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky - Wildcats by 6
North Dakota vs. Weber State - Wildcats by 12
North Carolina A&T vs. Delaware State - Aggies by 5
Sam Houston State vs. Northwestern State - Demons by 6
Florida State vs. North Carolina - Tar Heels by 9
Texas State vs. New Mexico State - Aggies by 12
Western Michigan vs. Ohio - Bobcats by 6
Massachusetts vs. Temple - Owls by 4
Alabama A&M vs. Southern - Jaguars by 14
UC-Irvine vs. Long Beach State - Anteaters by 5
Missouri vs. Ole Miss - Tigers by 3
Northern Colorado at Montana - Grizzlies by 10
Texas-San Antonio vs. Texas-Arlington - Mavericks by 4
Utah vs. Oregon - Ducks by 6
Colorado State at UNLV - Rebels by 5
Cal Poly vs. Pacific - Tigers by 1
Prediction Results
NBA: 1-1 (.500) 651-314 overall (.675)
College Basketball: 32-19 (.627) 1108-317 overall (.778)
Upsets: 5-6 (.455) 123-91 overall (.575)
Thursday, March 14, 2013
Basketball Predictions - 14 Mar
Upset picks are in italics.
NBA
Dallas at San Antonio - Spurs by 11
New York at Portland - Knicks by 1
College Basketball
Villanova vs. (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 12
Cincinnati vs. (5) Georgetown - Hoyas by 3
Penn State vs. (6) Michigan - Wolverines by 15
Texas Tech vs. (7) Kansas - Jayhawks by 23
Texas vs. (11) Kansas State - Wildcats by 7
(24) Notre Dame vs. (12) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 1
Baylor vs. (14) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 4
(19) Syracuse vs. (17) Pittsburgh - Panthers by 1
Colorado vs. (18) Arizona - Wildcats by 3
Tulane vs. (20) Memphis - Tigers by 10
Arizona State vs. (21) UCLA - Bruins by 4
Texas A&M vs. Missouri - Tigers by 10
Buffalo vs. Kent State - Golden Flashes by 5
Nebraska vs. Purdue - Boilermakers by 6
Saint Joseph's vs. Xavier - Hawks by 1
Wake Forest vs. Maryland - Terrapins by 7
Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas - Razorbacks by 2
Southern Utah vs. North Dakota - No Mascots by 4
Sam Houston State vs. Oral Roberts - Golden Eagles by 6
Morgan State vs. Savannah State - Bears by 1
Utah vs. California - Golden Bears by 6
Clemson vs. Florida State - Tigers by 1
George Washington vs. Massachusetts - Minutemen by 2
Cal State-Fullerton vs. Long Beach State - Titans by 1
Prairie View A&M vs. Alcorn State - Braves by 3
Northwestern vs. Iowa - Hawkeyes by 10
Texas-San Antonio vs. Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 12
Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan - Broncos by 6
Tulsa vs. East Carolina - Pirates by 1
Northern Colorado vs. Montana State - Bears by 5
Hawaii vs. UC-Irvine - Anteaters by 4
Texas-Arlington vs. Utah State - Aggies by 4
Washington vs. Oregon - Ducks by 4
Georgia Tech vs. Boston College - Yellowjackets by 1
Charlotte vs. Richmond - Spiders by 7
Minnesota vs. Illinois - Golden Gophers by 3
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma - Cyclones by 2
LSU vs. Georgia - Tigers by 1
UAB vs. Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 9
Alabama State vs. Jackson State - Tigers by 5
Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina State - Wolfpack by 11
Dayton vs. Butler - Flyers by 1
Idaho vs. New Mexico State - Aggies by 7
UC-Santa Barbara vs. Pacific - Tigers by 6
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee - Volunteers by 16
Houston vs. UTEP - Miners by 5
Northern Arizona vs. Weber State - Wildcats by 15
Texas State vs. Denver - Pioneers by 18
UC-Davis vs. Cal Poly - Mustangs by 2
Delaware State vs. Hampton - Pirates by 2
McNeese State vs. Southeast Louisiana - Cowboys by 1
Prediction Results
NBA: 9-2 (.818) 650-313 overall (.675)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 113-88 overall (.562)
College Basketball: 19-8 (.704) 1076-298 overall (.783)
Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 118-85 overall (.581)
NBA
Dallas at San Antonio - Spurs by 11
New York at Portland - Knicks by 1
College Basketball
Villanova vs. (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 12
Cincinnati vs. (5) Georgetown - Hoyas by 3
Penn State vs. (6) Michigan - Wolverines by 15
Texas Tech vs. (7) Kansas - Jayhawks by 23
Texas vs. (11) Kansas State - Wildcats by 7
(24) Notre Dame vs. (12) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 1
Baylor vs. (14) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 4
(19) Syracuse vs. (17) Pittsburgh - Panthers by 1
Colorado vs. (18) Arizona - Wildcats by 3
Tulane vs. (20) Memphis - Tigers by 10
Arizona State vs. (21) UCLA - Bruins by 4
Texas A&M vs. Missouri - Tigers by 10
Buffalo vs. Kent State - Golden Flashes by 5
Nebraska vs. Purdue - Boilermakers by 6
Saint Joseph's vs. Xavier - Hawks by 1
Wake Forest vs. Maryland - Terrapins by 7
Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas - Razorbacks by 2
Southern Utah vs. North Dakota - No Mascots by 4
Sam Houston State vs. Oral Roberts - Golden Eagles by 6
Morgan State vs. Savannah State - Bears by 1
Utah vs. California - Golden Bears by 6
Clemson vs. Florida State - Tigers by 1
George Washington vs. Massachusetts - Minutemen by 2
Cal State-Fullerton vs. Long Beach State - Titans by 1
Prairie View A&M vs. Alcorn State - Braves by 3
Northwestern vs. Iowa - Hawkeyes by 10
Texas-San Antonio vs. Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 12
Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan - Broncos by 6
Tulsa vs. East Carolina - Pirates by 1
Northern Colorado vs. Montana State - Bears by 5
Hawaii vs. UC-Irvine - Anteaters by 4
Texas-Arlington vs. Utah State - Aggies by 4
Washington vs. Oregon - Ducks by 4
Georgia Tech vs. Boston College - Yellowjackets by 1
Charlotte vs. Richmond - Spiders by 7
Minnesota vs. Illinois - Golden Gophers by 3
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma - Cyclones by 2
LSU vs. Georgia - Tigers by 1
UAB vs. Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 9
Alabama State vs. Jackson State - Tigers by 5
Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina State - Wolfpack by 11
Dayton vs. Butler - Flyers by 1
Idaho vs. New Mexico State - Aggies by 7
UC-Santa Barbara vs. Pacific - Tigers by 6
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee - Volunteers by 16
Houston vs. UTEP - Miners by 5
Northern Arizona vs. Weber State - Wildcats by 15
Texas State vs. Denver - Pioneers by 18
UC-Davis vs. Cal Poly - Mustangs by 2
Delaware State vs. Hampton - Pirates by 2
McNeese State vs. Southeast Louisiana - Cowboys by 1
Prediction Results
NBA: 9-2 (.818) 650-313 overall (.675)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 113-88 overall (.562)
College Basketball: 19-8 (.704) 1076-298 overall (.783)
Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 118-85 overall (.581)
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Basketball Predictions - 13 Mar
Upset picks are in italics.
NBA
Miami at Philadelphia - Heat by 9
Milwaukee at Washington - Wizards by 1
Minnesota at Indiana - Pacers by 11
Toronto at Boston - Celtics by 4
LA Lakers at Atlanta - Hawks by 2
Phoenix at Houston - Rockets by 13
Utah at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 13
Chicago at Sacramento - Bulls by 2
New York at Denver - Nuggets by 7
Memphis at LA Clippers - Clippers by 6
Detroit at Golden State - Warriors by 8
College Basketball
Wyoming vs. (15) New Mexico - Lobos by 8
Seton Hall vs. (19) Syracuse - Orange by 13
Rutgers vs. (24) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 7
Fresno State vs. Colorado State - Rams by 8
Oregon State vs Colorado - Buffaloes by 7
McNeese State vs. Nicholls State - Colonels by 1
Bethune-Cookman vs. Norfolk State - Spartans by 4
Buffalo vs. Ball State - Bulls by 4
Saint John's vs. Villanova - Wildcats by 5
Rice vs. Houston - Cougars by 13
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia - Mountaineers by 8
Lafayette at Bucknell - Bison by 16
Mississippi State vs. South Carolina - Gamecocks by 5
North Carolina A&T vs. North Carolina Central - Eagles by 5
Central Arkansas vs. Sam Houston State - Bearkats by 5
Utah vs. USC - Trojans by 1
Grambling State vs. Alabama A&M - Bulldogs by 19
Miami-Ohio vs. Eastern Michigan - Redhawks by 2
TCU vs. Texas - Longhorns by 11
Marshall vs. Tulane - Green Wave by 5
Auburn vs. Texas A&M - Aggies by 7
Washington State vs. Washington - Huskies by 1
Boise State vs. San Diego State - Aztecs by 2
Cincinnati vs. Providence - Bearcats by 3
Arizona State vs. Stanford - Cardinal by 4
Air Force vs. UNLV - Rebels by 6
SMU vs. UAB - Blazers by 1
Prediction Results
NBA: 5-3 (.625) 641-311 overall (.673)
College Basketball: 9-2 (.818) 1057-290 overall (.785)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 117-83 overall (.585)
NBA
Miami at Philadelphia - Heat by 9
Milwaukee at Washington - Wizards by 1
Minnesota at Indiana - Pacers by 11
Toronto at Boston - Celtics by 4
LA Lakers at Atlanta - Hawks by 2
Phoenix at Houston - Rockets by 13
Utah at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 13
Chicago at Sacramento - Bulls by 2
New York at Denver - Nuggets by 7
Memphis at LA Clippers - Clippers by 6
Detroit at Golden State - Warriors by 8
College Basketball
Wyoming vs. (15) New Mexico - Lobos by 8
Seton Hall vs. (19) Syracuse - Orange by 13
Rutgers vs. (24) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 7
Fresno State vs. Colorado State - Rams by 8
Oregon State vs Colorado - Buffaloes by 7
McNeese State vs. Nicholls State - Colonels by 1
Bethune-Cookman vs. Norfolk State - Spartans by 4
Buffalo vs. Ball State - Bulls by 4
Saint John's vs. Villanova - Wildcats by 5
Rice vs. Houston - Cougars by 13
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia - Mountaineers by 8
Lafayette at Bucknell - Bison by 16
Mississippi State vs. South Carolina - Gamecocks by 5
North Carolina A&T vs. North Carolina Central - Eagles by 5
Central Arkansas vs. Sam Houston State - Bearkats by 5
Utah vs. USC - Trojans by 1
Grambling State vs. Alabama A&M - Bulldogs by 19
Miami-Ohio vs. Eastern Michigan - Redhawks by 2
TCU vs. Texas - Longhorns by 11
Marshall vs. Tulane - Green Wave by 5
Auburn vs. Texas A&M - Aggies by 7
Washington State vs. Washington - Huskies by 1
Boise State vs. San Diego State - Aztecs by 2
Cincinnati vs. Providence - Bearcats by 3
Arizona State vs. Stanford - Cardinal by 4
Air Force vs. UNLV - Rebels by 6
SMU vs. UAB - Blazers by 1
Prediction Results
NBA: 5-3 (.625) 641-311 overall (.673)
College Basketball: 9-2 (.818) 1057-290 overall (.785)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 117-83 overall (.585)
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Basketball Predictions - 12 Mar
Upset picks are in italics.
NBA
Boston at Charlotte - Celtics by 9
LA Lakers at Orlando - Lakers by 7
Washington at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 3
New Orleans at Brooklyn - Nets by 6
Atlanta at Miami - Heat by 10
Dallas at Milwaukee - Bucks by 2
San Antonio at Minnesota - Spurs by 10
Memphis at Portland - Grizzlies by 3
College Basketball
Mount Saint Mary's at Long Island - Blackbirds by 5
South Florida vs. Seton Hall - Pirates by 2
Nevada vs. Wyoming - Cowboys by 6
DePaul vs. Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 4
Howard vs. Delaware State - Hornets by 3
Texas State vs. Seattle - Redhawks by 4
North Dakota State vs. South Dakota State - Bison by 2
Wright State at Valparaiso - Crusaders by 11
San Jose State vs. Texas-San Antonio - Roadrunners by 4
Coppin State vs. Bethune Cookman - Wildcats by 4
Florida A&M vs. North Carolina A&T - Aggies by 7
Prediction Results
NBA: 3-2 (.600) 636-308 overall (.674)
College Basketball: 10-2 (.833) 1048-288 overall (.784)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 116-82 overall (.586)
NBA
Boston at Charlotte - Celtics by 9
LA Lakers at Orlando - Lakers by 7
Washington at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 3
New Orleans at Brooklyn - Nets by 6
Atlanta at Miami - Heat by 10
Dallas at Milwaukee - Bucks by 2
San Antonio at Minnesota - Spurs by 10
Memphis at Portland - Grizzlies by 3
College Basketball
Mount Saint Mary's at Long Island - Blackbirds by 5
South Florida vs. Seton Hall - Pirates by 2
Nevada vs. Wyoming - Cowboys by 6
DePaul vs. Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 4
Howard vs. Delaware State - Hornets by 3
Texas State vs. Seattle - Redhawks by 4
North Dakota State vs. South Dakota State - Bison by 2
Wright State at Valparaiso - Crusaders by 11
San Jose State vs. Texas-San Antonio - Roadrunners by 4
Coppin State vs. Bethune Cookman - Wildcats by 4
Florida A&M vs. North Carolina A&T - Aggies by 7
Prediction Results
NBA: 3-2 (.600) 636-308 overall (.674)
College Basketball: 10-2 (.833) 1048-288 overall (.784)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 116-82 overall (.586)
Monday, March 11, 2013
College Basketball Rankings - 11 Mar
The regular season has ended, and the majority of teams are now fighting their way through the conference tournaments, which are meaningless for some but very important for others who are hoping to improve their seeding or grab a couple more quality wins. Here are my current rankings, with teams grouped by similar level of performance and AP ranking in parentheses.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (AP)
1. (1) Indiana (1-1) 26-5 (3)
2. (2) Florida (1-1) 24-6 (13)
3. (3) Louisville (2-0) 26-5 (4)
4. (4) Gonzaga (1-0) 30-2 (1)
5. (6) Duke (2-0) 27-4 (2)
6. (5) Kansas (1-1) 26-5 (7)
7. (12) Pittsburgh (1-0) 24-7 (17)
8. (14) Creighton (3-0) 27-7 (23)
9. (7) Syracuse (1-1) 23-8 (19)
10. (8) Michigan State (2-0) 24-7 (8)
11. (10) VCU (1-1) 24-7 (25)
12. (11) Ohio State (2-0) 23-7 (10)
13. (9) Wisconsin (1-1) 21-10 (22)
14. (13) Michigan (1-1) 25-6 (6)
15. (20) Georgetown (1-1) 24-5 (5)
16. (18) Missouri (1-1) 22-9 (NR)
17. (15) Middle Tennessee (1-1) 28-5 (NR)
18. (17) Oklahoma State (1-1) 23-7 (14)
19. (19) Saint Mary's (1-0) 27-5 (26)
20. (16) Miami (1-1) 24-6 (9)
21. (NR) Colorado State (2-0) 24-7 (29)
22. (24) Arizona (1-0) 24-6 (18)
23. (23) New Mexico (1-1) 26-5 (15)
24. (NR) North Carolina (1-1) 22-9 (28)
25. (21) Minnesota (0-2) 20-11 (NR)
Dropped Out
(22) San Diego State (1-1) 21-9 (NR)
(25) Virginia (1-1) 21-10 (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 10 - 6
Big East - 4
ACC - 3
SEC - 2
MWC - 2
Big 12 - 2
WCC - 2
MVC - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Pac 12 - 1
Sun Belt - 1
Duke has been the hottest team in college basketball lately, winning both of their games this week in impressive fashion, and they have pretty much locked up a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They have only 4 losses this season, all on the road against foes who have hopes of making the tournament next week, which made their last win even bigger, because they took down their rival Tar Heels on the road by 16 points, putting no doubt in anyone's mind that they are still the class of the ACC, whether they win the title or not.
Creighton recovered from a rough patch that had dropped them from the national rankings for the first time all season by walking right through the MVC tournament, beating the Wichita State Shockers in the final to reclaim the conference crown for their own. The wins moved them back into the top 25 of the AP poll, but in my rankings it moved them into the top 10, a height they hadn't reached since the end of January.
Colorado State moved back into my top 25 this week by winning both of its games, which has been very difficult for any team in the Mountain West to accomplish lately. 6 of their 7 losses have come against teams that deserve to keep playing beyond this week, and they have also racked up 5 wins over teams of that same caliber.
Georgetown lost for the first time in 6 weeks at Villanova this week, but they redeemed themselves by beating up on Syracuse to close out the regular season, and as a result they moved up 5 spots in my rankings. With a strong showing in the conference tournament, the Hoyas could easily find themselves in the top 10 heading into March Madness.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Saint Mary's vs. (1) Gonzaga - Bulldogs by 7
Maryland-Eastern Shore vs. Savannah State - Tigers by 13
James Madison vs. Northeastern - Huskies by 1
Miami-Ohio at Bowling Green - Falcons by 9
Central Michigan at Buffalo - Bulls by 11
Charleston vs. Davidson - Wildcats by 8
Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan - Eagles by 12
Western Kentucky vs. Florida International - Hilltoppers by 1
IPFW vs. South Dakota State - Jackrabbits by 6
Manhattan vs. Iona - Gaels by 5
South Carolina State vs. Morgan State - Bears by 14
North Dakota State vs. Western Illinois - Bison by 7
NBA
Brooklyn at Philadelphia - Nets by 3
Oklahoma City at San Antonio - Spurs by 1
Detroit at Utah - Jazz by 8
Denver at Phoenix - Nuggets by 7
New York at Golden State - Knicks by 1
Prediction Results
NBA: 7-2 (.778) 633-306 overall (.674)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 112-87 overall (.563)
College Basketball: 11-9 (.550) 1038-286 overall (.784)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 114-82 overall (.582)
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (AP)
1. (1) Indiana (1-1) 26-5 (3)
2. (2) Florida (1-1) 24-6 (13)
3. (3) Louisville (2-0) 26-5 (4)
4. (4) Gonzaga (1-0) 30-2 (1)
5. (6) Duke (2-0) 27-4 (2)
6. (5) Kansas (1-1) 26-5 (7)
7. (12) Pittsburgh (1-0) 24-7 (17)
8. (14) Creighton (3-0) 27-7 (23)
9. (7) Syracuse (1-1) 23-8 (19)
10. (8) Michigan State (2-0) 24-7 (8)
11. (10) VCU (1-1) 24-7 (25)
12. (11) Ohio State (2-0) 23-7 (10)
13. (9) Wisconsin (1-1) 21-10 (22)
14. (13) Michigan (1-1) 25-6 (6)
15. (20) Georgetown (1-1) 24-5 (5)
16. (18) Missouri (1-1) 22-9 (NR)
17. (15) Middle Tennessee (1-1) 28-5 (NR)
18. (17) Oklahoma State (1-1) 23-7 (14)
19. (19) Saint Mary's (1-0) 27-5 (26)
20. (16) Miami (1-1) 24-6 (9)
21. (NR) Colorado State (2-0) 24-7 (29)
22. (24) Arizona (1-0) 24-6 (18)
23. (23) New Mexico (1-1) 26-5 (15)
24. (NR) North Carolina (1-1) 22-9 (28)
25. (21) Minnesota (0-2) 20-11 (NR)
Dropped Out
(22) San Diego State (1-1) 21-9 (NR)
(25) Virginia (1-1) 21-10 (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 10 - 6
Big East - 4
ACC - 3
SEC - 2
MWC - 2
Big 12 - 2
WCC - 2
MVC - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Pac 12 - 1
Sun Belt - 1
Duke has been the hottest team in college basketball lately, winning both of their games this week in impressive fashion, and they have pretty much locked up a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They have only 4 losses this season, all on the road against foes who have hopes of making the tournament next week, which made their last win even bigger, because they took down their rival Tar Heels on the road by 16 points, putting no doubt in anyone's mind that they are still the class of the ACC, whether they win the title or not.
Creighton recovered from a rough patch that had dropped them from the national rankings for the first time all season by walking right through the MVC tournament, beating the Wichita State Shockers in the final to reclaim the conference crown for their own. The wins moved them back into the top 25 of the AP poll, but in my rankings it moved them into the top 10, a height they hadn't reached since the end of January.
Colorado State moved back into my top 25 this week by winning both of its games, which has been very difficult for any team in the Mountain West to accomplish lately. 6 of their 7 losses have come against teams that deserve to keep playing beyond this week, and they have also racked up 5 wins over teams of that same caliber.
Georgetown lost for the first time in 6 weeks at Villanova this week, but they redeemed themselves by beating up on Syracuse to close out the regular season, and as a result they moved up 5 spots in my rankings. With a strong showing in the conference tournament, the Hoyas could easily find themselves in the top 10 heading into March Madness.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Saint Mary's vs. (1) Gonzaga - Bulldogs by 7
Maryland-Eastern Shore vs. Savannah State - Tigers by 13
James Madison vs. Northeastern - Huskies by 1
Miami-Ohio at Bowling Green - Falcons by 9
Central Michigan at Buffalo - Bulls by 11
Charleston vs. Davidson - Wildcats by 8
Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan - Eagles by 12
Western Kentucky vs. Florida International - Hilltoppers by 1
IPFW vs. South Dakota State - Jackrabbits by 6
Manhattan vs. Iona - Gaels by 5
South Carolina State vs. Morgan State - Bears by 14
North Dakota State vs. Western Illinois - Bison by 7
NBA
Brooklyn at Philadelphia - Nets by 3
Oklahoma City at San Antonio - Spurs by 1
Detroit at Utah - Jazz by 8
Denver at Phoenix - Nuggets by 7
New York at Golden State - Knicks by 1
Prediction Results
NBA: 7-2 (.778) 633-306 overall (.674)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 112-87 overall (.563)
College Basketball: 11-9 (.550) 1038-286 overall (.784)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 114-82 overall (.582)
Sunday, March 10, 2013
Basketball Predictions - 10 Mar
Upset picks are in italics.
NBA
Boston at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 12
Chicago at LA Lakers - Lakers by 4
Cleveland at Toronto - Raptors by 5
Philadelphia at Orlando - 76ers by 1
Indiana at Miami - Heat by 6
Portland at New Orleans - Hornets by 2
Dallas at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 1
Milwaukee at Sacramento - Bucks by 1
Detroit at LA Clippers - Clippers by 14
College Basketball
(2) Indiana at (7) Michigan - Hoosiers by 2
Northwestern at (10) Michigan State - Spartans by 23
(21) VCU at Temple - Rams by 3
(22) Wisconsin at Penn State - Badgers by 10
Florida International vs. Middle Tennessee - Blue Raiders by 16
Wichita State vs. Creighton - Bluejays by 3
Fairfield vs. Manhattan - Stags by 1
James Madison vs. Delaware - Blue Hens by 2
UMBC vs. Vermont - Catamounts by 12
Maryland at Virginia - Cavaliers by 10
Appalachian State vs. Davidson - Wildcats by 15
IPFW vs. Oakland - Golden Grizzlies by 3
Albany vs. Stony Brook - Seawolves by 3
Charleston vs. Elon - Cougars by 2
UMKC vs. North Dakota State - Bison by 19
Western Kentucky vs. Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 2
Liberty vs. Charleston Southern - Buccaneers by 7
Illinois at (14) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 12
George Mason vs. Northeastern - Patriots by 3
Iona vs. Niagara - Gaels by 4
Prediction Results
NBA: 4-3 (.571) 626-304 overall (.673)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 110-86 overall (.561)
College Basketball: 46-21 (.687) 1027-277 overall (.788)
Upsets: 7-3 (.700) 113-81 overall (.582)
NBA
Boston at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 12
Chicago at LA Lakers - Lakers by 4
Cleveland at Toronto - Raptors by 5
Philadelphia at Orlando - 76ers by 1
Indiana at Miami - Heat by 6
Portland at New Orleans - Hornets by 2
Dallas at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 1
Milwaukee at Sacramento - Bucks by 1
Detroit at LA Clippers - Clippers by 14
College Basketball
(2) Indiana at (7) Michigan - Hoosiers by 2
Northwestern at (10) Michigan State - Spartans by 23
(21) VCU at Temple - Rams by 3
(22) Wisconsin at Penn State - Badgers by 10
Florida International vs. Middle Tennessee - Blue Raiders by 16
Wichita State vs. Creighton - Bluejays by 3
Fairfield vs. Manhattan - Stags by 1
James Madison vs. Delaware - Blue Hens by 2
UMBC vs. Vermont - Catamounts by 12
Maryland at Virginia - Cavaliers by 10
Appalachian State vs. Davidson - Wildcats by 15
IPFW vs. Oakland - Golden Grizzlies by 3
Albany vs. Stony Brook - Seawolves by 3
Charleston vs. Elon - Cougars by 2
UMKC vs. North Dakota State - Bison by 19
Western Kentucky vs. Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 2
Liberty vs. Charleston Southern - Buccaneers by 7
Illinois at (14) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 12
George Mason vs. Northeastern - Patriots by 3
Iona vs. Niagara - Gaels by 4
Prediction Results
NBA: 4-3 (.571) 626-304 overall (.673)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 110-86 overall (.561)
College Basketball: 46-21 (.687) 1027-277 overall (.788)
Upsets: 7-3 (.700) 113-81 overall (.582)
Saturday, March 9, 2013
NBA Rankings - 9 Mar
The push for the playoffs has started with Miami clinching a playoff berth, and although there is very little debate over which teams will make the playoffs, there is still a lot of drama taking place as teams battle for seeding. The only team not currently in playoff position with a real chance to sneak in is Los Angeles, but somebody's got to fade for the Lakers to get in. Here are my current NBA rankings, with teams grouped by similar level of performance and projected record and seeding included as well.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (Projected) Seed
1. (1) Oklahoma City (4-1) 46-16 (62-20) 1W
2. (2) San Antonio (3-1) 48-15 (62-20) 2W
3. (3) Miami (5-0) 46-14 (63-19) 1E
4. (4) LA Clippers (2-2) 44-20 (57-25) 3W
5. (7) Denver (4-0) 41-22 (53-29) 5W
6. (5) Indiana (3-1) 39-23 (52-30) 2E
7. (6) Houston (3-1) 34-29 (47-35) 6W
8. (8) Memphis (3-1) 41-19 (54-28) 4W
9. (9) New York (3-2) 37-22 (50-32) 3E
10. (10) LA Lakers (3-1) 32-31 (43-39) 8W
11. (13) Boston (4-0) 34-27 (45-37) 7E
12. (11) Atlanta (1-4) 34-27 (46-36) 5E
13. (12) Chicago (2-2) 35-27 (45-37) 6E
14. (17) Utah (1-3) 32-30 (42-40) 9W
15. (14) Brooklyn (2-2) 36-26 (46-36) 4E
16. (16) Dallas (3-1) 28-33 (38-44) 11W
17. (15) Golden State (2-3) 35-28 (45-37) 7W
18. (18) Toronto (1-4) 24-39 (34-48) 9E
19. (24) Portland (3-1) 29-32 (38-44) 10W
20. (19) Milwaukee (2-1) 30-29 (41-41) 8E
21. (23) Cleveland (1-3) 21-41 (29-53) 12E
22. (22) New Orleans (1-2) 21-41 (29-53) 13W
23. (21) Washington (1-3) 19-41 (29-53) 13E
24. (20) Minnesota (1-2) 21-37 (30-52) 12W
25. (25) Detroit (0-4) 23-41 (30-52) 11E
26. (26) Philadelphia (1-4) 23-38 (31-51) 10E
27. (28) Sacramento (2-3) 22-42 (28-54) 14W
28. (27) Phoenix (1-2) 21-41 (27-55) 15W
29. (29) Orlando (1-4) 17-46 (21-61) 14E
30. (30) Charlotte (0-5) 13-49 (17-65) 15E
The hottest team in the league right now is the Portland Trail Blazers, who are making a playoff push, even though it may be a little too late. Last night, they turned a halftime tie at San Antonio into a 30-point blowout, the largest home loss in Tim Duncan's career. I'm currently projecting them to come in 10th in the West, and I just don't see them catching both Utah and Los Angeles, but that's no reason not to try.
Utah is playing well right now as well, despite their current 3-game losing streak. All three games were on the road in the Eastern Conference, and each came down to the final possession before Utah went down. Right now it's looking like the Lakers will catch the Jazz and keep Utah just outside the playoffs, but if they can win just one game that they shouldn't, it could be enough to hold off LA.
Memphis has won 11 of their last 12 games, and the lone loss during that stretch came at Miami, who has now won 16 games in a row. Even though I have them ranked behind 5 Western Conference teams, this current hot streak has given them enough of a cushion that they should still end up with the #4 seed and home court advantage in the first round, which will be very important if they face Denver to open the playoffs.
Sacramento has won only 3 of their last 12 games, but those 3 came against the teams they should beat, the three lowest-ranked teams on my list this week. The Kings pulled ahead of Phoenix yesterday thanks to their 9-point victory, and they may be able to pass a couple more teams before the season ends and the NBA leaves Sacramento forever.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Brooklyn at Atlanta - Hawks by 4
Utah at New York - Knicks by 5
Charlotte at Washington - Wizards by 11
New Orleans at Memphis - Grizzlies by 10
Minnesota at Denver - Nuggets by 11
Houston at Phoenix - Rockets by 7
Milwaukee at Golden State - Warriors by 4
College Basketball
Loyola Marymount vs. (1) Gonzaga - Bulldogs by 23
(3) Duke at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 1
(4) Kansas at Baylor - Jayhawks by 4
(17) Syracuse at (5) Georgetown - Hoyas by 2
Clemson at (6) Miami - Hurricanes by 15
(24) Notre Dame at (8) Louisville - Cardinals by 14
(9) Kansas State at (13) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 9
(11) Florida at Kentucky - Gators by 6
(12) New Mexico at Air Force - Lobos by 2
(15) Marquette at Saint John's - Golden Eagles by 2
LaSalle at (16) Saint Louis - Billikens by 6
Arizona State at (18) Arizona - Wildcats by 13
(19) Oregon at Utah - Ducks by 2
(20) Pittsburgh at DePaul - Panthers by 10
(23) UCLA at Washington - Huskies by 1
UAB at (25) Memphis - Tigers by 16
Minnesota at Purdue - Golden Gophers by 1
New Hampshire vs. Vermont - Catamounts by 6
VMI vs. Charleston Southern - Buccaneers by 10
Georgia Southern vs. Davidson - Wildcats by 15
Florida Gulf Coast at Mercer - Bears by 7
Long Island at Wagner - Seahawks by 9
Ole Miss at LSU - Tigers by 1
Iowa State at West Virginia - Cyclones by 4
UMBC vs. Hartford - Hawks by 9
North Carolina State at Florida State - Wolfpack by 3
Lehigh at Lafayette - Mountain Hawks by 1
Liberty vs. Gardner Webb - Bulldogs by 7
Nebraska at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 14
Siena vs. Niagara - Purple Eagles by 11
Furman vs. Appalachian State - Mountaineers by 10
Mount Saint Mary's at Robert Morris - Colonials by 10
Indiana State vs. Creighton - Bluejays by 11
San Diego State at Boise State - Broncos by 4
Drexel vs. George Mason - Patriots by 1
Missouri at Tennessee - Volunteers by 1
South Florida at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 16
Oregon State at Colorado - Buffaloes by 15
Canisius vs. Iona - Gaels by 2
Army at Bucknell - Bison by 13
Oklahoma at TCU - Sooners by 12
Illinois State vs. Wichita State - Shockers by 3
Cornell at Harvard - Crimson by 18
Hofstra vs. Delaware - Blue Hens by 10
Wright State vs. Detroit - Titans by 6
UNC-Greensboro vs. Elon - Phoenix by 6
Fresno State at UNLV - Rebels by 16
Binghamton vs. Stony Brook - Seawolves by 26
Murray State vs. Belmont - Bruins by 11
Louisiana Tech at Denver - Pioneers by 8
Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Florida International - Golden Panthers by 2
IUPUI vs. South Dakota State - Jackrabbits by 20
Texas A&M-CC at Stephen F Austin - Lumberjacks by 22
Fairfield vs. Rider - Broncs by 1
Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Middle Tennessee - Blue Raiders by 19
Long Beach State at Pacific - Tigers by 10
Maine at Albany - Great Danes by 19
West Carolina vs. Charleston - Cougars by 5
William & Mary vs. James Madison - Dukes by 1
Green Bay at Valparaiso - Crusaders by 12
Nevada at Colorado State - Rams by 21
Northern Arizona at Montana - Grizzlies by 17
Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama - Hilltoppers by 1
Manhattan vs. Loyola-Maryland - Greyhounds by 3
South Dakota vs. Western Illinois - Leathernecks by 5
Troy vs. Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 11
San Diego vs. Saint Mary's - Gaels by 15
Prediction Results
NBA: 11-1 (.917) 622-301 overall (.674)
Upsets: 3-0 (1.000) 110-85 overall (.564)
College Basketball: 13-10 (.565) 981-256 overall (.793)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 106-78 overall (.576)
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (Projected) Seed
1. (1) Oklahoma City (4-1) 46-16 (62-20) 1W
2. (2) San Antonio (3-1) 48-15 (62-20) 2W
3. (3) Miami (5-0) 46-14 (63-19) 1E
4. (4) LA Clippers (2-2) 44-20 (57-25) 3W
5. (7) Denver (4-0) 41-22 (53-29) 5W
6. (5) Indiana (3-1) 39-23 (52-30) 2E
7. (6) Houston (3-1) 34-29 (47-35) 6W
8. (8) Memphis (3-1) 41-19 (54-28) 4W
9. (9) New York (3-2) 37-22 (50-32) 3E
10. (10) LA Lakers (3-1) 32-31 (43-39) 8W
11. (13) Boston (4-0) 34-27 (45-37) 7E
12. (11) Atlanta (1-4) 34-27 (46-36) 5E
13. (12) Chicago (2-2) 35-27 (45-37) 6E
14. (17) Utah (1-3) 32-30 (42-40) 9W
15. (14) Brooklyn (2-2) 36-26 (46-36) 4E
16. (16) Dallas (3-1) 28-33 (38-44) 11W
17. (15) Golden State (2-3) 35-28 (45-37) 7W
18. (18) Toronto (1-4) 24-39 (34-48) 9E
19. (24) Portland (3-1) 29-32 (38-44) 10W
20. (19) Milwaukee (2-1) 30-29 (41-41) 8E
21. (23) Cleveland (1-3) 21-41 (29-53) 12E
22. (22) New Orleans (1-2) 21-41 (29-53) 13W
23. (21) Washington (1-3) 19-41 (29-53) 13E
24. (20) Minnesota (1-2) 21-37 (30-52) 12W
25. (25) Detroit (0-4) 23-41 (30-52) 11E
26. (26) Philadelphia (1-4) 23-38 (31-51) 10E
27. (28) Sacramento (2-3) 22-42 (28-54) 14W
28. (27) Phoenix (1-2) 21-41 (27-55) 15W
29. (29) Orlando (1-4) 17-46 (21-61) 14E
30. (30) Charlotte (0-5) 13-49 (17-65) 15E
The hottest team in the league right now is the Portland Trail Blazers, who are making a playoff push, even though it may be a little too late. Last night, they turned a halftime tie at San Antonio into a 30-point blowout, the largest home loss in Tim Duncan's career. I'm currently projecting them to come in 10th in the West, and I just don't see them catching both Utah and Los Angeles, but that's no reason not to try.
Utah is playing well right now as well, despite their current 3-game losing streak. All three games were on the road in the Eastern Conference, and each came down to the final possession before Utah went down. Right now it's looking like the Lakers will catch the Jazz and keep Utah just outside the playoffs, but if they can win just one game that they shouldn't, it could be enough to hold off LA.
Memphis has won 11 of their last 12 games, and the lone loss during that stretch came at Miami, who has now won 16 games in a row. Even though I have them ranked behind 5 Western Conference teams, this current hot streak has given them enough of a cushion that they should still end up with the #4 seed and home court advantage in the first round, which will be very important if they face Denver to open the playoffs.
Sacramento has won only 3 of their last 12 games, but those 3 came against the teams they should beat, the three lowest-ranked teams on my list this week. The Kings pulled ahead of Phoenix yesterday thanks to their 9-point victory, and they may be able to pass a couple more teams before the season ends and the NBA leaves Sacramento forever.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Brooklyn at Atlanta - Hawks by 4
Utah at New York - Knicks by 5
Charlotte at Washington - Wizards by 11
New Orleans at Memphis - Grizzlies by 10
Minnesota at Denver - Nuggets by 11
Houston at Phoenix - Rockets by 7
Milwaukee at Golden State - Warriors by 4
College Basketball
Loyola Marymount vs. (1) Gonzaga - Bulldogs by 23
(3) Duke at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 1
(4) Kansas at Baylor - Jayhawks by 4
(17) Syracuse at (5) Georgetown - Hoyas by 2
Clemson at (6) Miami - Hurricanes by 15
(24) Notre Dame at (8) Louisville - Cardinals by 14
(9) Kansas State at (13) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 9
(11) Florida at Kentucky - Gators by 6
(12) New Mexico at Air Force - Lobos by 2
(15) Marquette at Saint John's - Golden Eagles by 2
LaSalle at (16) Saint Louis - Billikens by 6
Arizona State at (18) Arizona - Wildcats by 13
(19) Oregon at Utah - Ducks by 2
(20) Pittsburgh at DePaul - Panthers by 10
(23) UCLA at Washington - Huskies by 1
UAB at (25) Memphis - Tigers by 16
Minnesota at Purdue - Golden Gophers by 1
New Hampshire vs. Vermont - Catamounts by 6
VMI vs. Charleston Southern - Buccaneers by 10
Georgia Southern vs. Davidson - Wildcats by 15
Florida Gulf Coast at Mercer - Bears by 7
Long Island at Wagner - Seahawks by 9
Ole Miss at LSU - Tigers by 1
Iowa State at West Virginia - Cyclones by 4
UMBC vs. Hartford - Hawks by 9
North Carolina State at Florida State - Wolfpack by 3
Lehigh at Lafayette - Mountain Hawks by 1
Liberty vs. Gardner Webb - Bulldogs by 7
Nebraska at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 14
Siena vs. Niagara - Purple Eagles by 11
Furman vs. Appalachian State - Mountaineers by 10
Mount Saint Mary's at Robert Morris - Colonials by 10
Indiana State vs. Creighton - Bluejays by 11
San Diego State at Boise State - Broncos by 4
Drexel vs. George Mason - Patriots by 1
Missouri at Tennessee - Volunteers by 1
South Florida at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 16
Oregon State at Colorado - Buffaloes by 15
Canisius vs. Iona - Gaels by 2
Army at Bucknell - Bison by 13
Oklahoma at TCU - Sooners by 12
Illinois State vs. Wichita State - Shockers by 3
Cornell at Harvard - Crimson by 18
Hofstra vs. Delaware - Blue Hens by 10
Wright State vs. Detroit - Titans by 6
UNC-Greensboro vs. Elon - Phoenix by 6
Fresno State at UNLV - Rebels by 16
Binghamton vs. Stony Brook - Seawolves by 26
Murray State vs. Belmont - Bruins by 11
Louisiana Tech at Denver - Pioneers by 8
Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Florida International - Golden Panthers by 2
IUPUI vs. South Dakota State - Jackrabbits by 20
Texas A&M-CC at Stephen F Austin - Lumberjacks by 22
Fairfield vs. Rider - Broncs by 1
Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Middle Tennessee - Blue Raiders by 19
Long Beach State at Pacific - Tigers by 10
Maine at Albany - Great Danes by 19
West Carolina vs. Charleston - Cougars by 5
William & Mary vs. James Madison - Dukes by 1
Green Bay at Valparaiso - Crusaders by 12
Nevada at Colorado State - Rams by 21
Northern Arizona at Montana - Grizzlies by 17
Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama - Hilltoppers by 1
Manhattan vs. Loyola-Maryland - Greyhounds by 3
South Dakota vs. Western Illinois - Leathernecks by 5
Troy vs. Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 11
San Diego vs. Saint Mary's - Gaels by 15
Prediction Results
NBA: 11-1 (.917) 622-301 overall (.674)
Upsets: 3-0 (1.000) 110-85 overall (.564)
College Basketball: 13-10 (.565) 981-256 overall (.793)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 106-78 overall (.576)
Friday, March 8, 2013
Basketball Predictions - 8 Mar
Upset picks are in italics.
NBA
Oklahoma City at Charlotte - Thunder by 18
Indiana at Orlando - Pacers by 10
Washington at Brooklyn - Nets by 5
Dallas at Detroit - Mavericks by 1
Memphis at Cleveland - Grizzlies by 4
Atlanta at Boston - Celtics by 3
Philadelphia at Miami - Heat by 15
Utah at Chicago - Bulls by 3
Portland at San Antonio - Spurs by 15
Toronto at LA Lakers - Lakers by 6
Phoenix at Sacramento - Kings by 3
Houston at Golden State - Rockets by 2
College Basketball
Drake vs. Creighton - Bluejays by 12
Louisiana-Monroe vs. Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers by 13
Princeton at Yale - Tigers by 3
Tennessee State vs. Belmont - Bruins by 10
Kent State at Akron - Zips by 11
Missouri State vs. Wichita State - Shockers by 15
North Texas vs. Louisiana-Lafayette - Ragin Cajuns by 1
Siena vs. Marist - Red Foxes by 7
Stetson vs. Florida-Gulf Coast - Eagles by 6
Citadel vs. West Carolina - Catamounts by 9
Illinois-Chicago vs. Green Bay - Phoenix by 4
Eastern Kentucky vs. Murray State - Colonels by 5
Saint Peter's vs. Fairfield - Stags by 9
Troy vs. Florida Atlantic - Owls by 5
Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa - Redbirds by 1
Loyola Marymount vs. Santa Clara - Broncos by 8
San Diego vs. BYU - Cougars by 9
Georgia Southern vs. Wofford - Terriers by 4
Furman vs. Samford - Bulldogs by 10
Indiana State vs. Evansville - Aces by 2
USC Upstate vs. Mercer - Bears by 12
UNC-Greensboro vs. Chattanooga - Spartans by 1
Youngstown State vs. Wright State - Raiders by 5
Prediction Results
NBA: 2-0 (1.000) 611-300 overall (.671)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 107-85 overall (.557)
College Basketball: 16-6 (.727) 968-246 overall (.797)
Upsets: 4-2 (.667) 104-78 overall (.571)
NBA
Oklahoma City at Charlotte - Thunder by 18
Indiana at Orlando - Pacers by 10
Washington at Brooklyn - Nets by 5
Dallas at Detroit - Mavericks by 1
Memphis at Cleveland - Grizzlies by 4
Atlanta at Boston - Celtics by 3
Philadelphia at Miami - Heat by 15
Utah at Chicago - Bulls by 3
Portland at San Antonio - Spurs by 15
Toronto at LA Lakers - Lakers by 6
Phoenix at Sacramento - Kings by 3
Houston at Golden State - Rockets by 2
College Basketball
Drake vs. Creighton - Bluejays by 12
Louisiana-Monroe vs. Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers by 13
Princeton at Yale - Tigers by 3
Tennessee State vs. Belmont - Bruins by 10
Kent State at Akron - Zips by 11
Missouri State vs. Wichita State - Shockers by 15
North Texas vs. Louisiana-Lafayette - Ragin Cajuns by 1
Siena vs. Marist - Red Foxes by 7
Stetson vs. Florida-Gulf Coast - Eagles by 6
Citadel vs. West Carolina - Catamounts by 9
Illinois-Chicago vs. Green Bay - Phoenix by 4
Eastern Kentucky vs. Murray State - Colonels by 5
Saint Peter's vs. Fairfield - Stags by 9
Troy vs. Florida Atlantic - Owls by 5
Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa - Redbirds by 1
Loyola Marymount vs. Santa Clara - Broncos by 8
San Diego vs. BYU - Cougars by 9
Georgia Southern vs. Wofford - Terriers by 4
Furman vs. Samford - Bulldogs by 10
Indiana State vs. Evansville - Aces by 2
USC Upstate vs. Mercer - Bears by 12
UNC-Greensboro vs. Chattanooga - Spartans by 1
Youngstown State vs. Wright State - Raiders by 5
Prediction Results
NBA: 2-0 (1.000) 611-300 overall (.671)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 107-85 overall (.557)
College Basketball: 16-6 (.727) 968-246 overall (.797)
Upsets: 4-2 (.667) 104-78 overall (.571)
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Basketball Predictions - 7 Mar
Upset picks are in italics.
NBA
Oklahoma City at New York - Thunder by 5
LA Clippers at Denver - Nuggets by 1
College Basketball
(22) Wisconsin at (10) Michigan State - Spartans by 6
(19) Oregon at Colorado - Buffaloes by 6
USC-Upstate vs. Jacksonville - Spartans by 5
Liberty vs. High Point - Panthers by 5
Sacramento State at Montana - Grizzlies by 14
Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State - Aggies by 1
Texas-Arlington at Denver - Pioneers by 15
Sam Houston State at Stephen F Austin - Lumberjacks by 17
Loyola Marymount vs. San Francisco - Dons by 7
Southeast Missouri State vs. Eastern Kentucky - Colonels by 6
Southern Illinois vs. Missouri State - Salukis by 4
Long Beach State at UC-Davis - Aggies by 7
Pepperdine vs. San Diego - Toreros by 2
Winthrop vs. Charleston Southern - Buccaneers by 8
Longwood vs. VMI - Keydets by 7
East Tennessee State vs. Stetson - Hatters by 7
Campbell vs. Gardner-Webb - Bulldogs by 8
Virginia at Florida State - Cavaliers by 5
Kentucky at Georgia - Wildcats by 3
Drake vs. Bradley - Bulldogs by 2
Morehead State vs. Tennessee State - Tigers by 2
North Carolina A&T at Norfolk State - Spartans by 9
Prediction Results
NBA: 10-4 (.714) 609-300 overall (.670)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 106-85 overall (.555)
College Basketball: 23-9 (.719) 952-240 overall (.799)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 100-76 overall (.568)
NBA
Oklahoma City at New York - Thunder by 5
LA Clippers at Denver - Nuggets by 1
College Basketball
(22) Wisconsin at (10) Michigan State - Spartans by 6
(19) Oregon at Colorado - Buffaloes by 6
USC-Upstate vs. Jacksonville - Spartans by 5
Liberty vs. High Point - Panthers by 5
Sacramento State at Montana - Grizzlies by 14
Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State - Aggies by 1
Texas-Arlington at Denver - Pioneers by 15
Sam Houston State at Stephen F Austin - Lumberjacks by 17
Loyola Marymount vs. San Francisco - Dons by 7
Southeast Missouri State vs. Eastern Kentucky - Colonels by 6
Southern Illinois vs. Missouri State - Salukis by 4
Long Beach State at UC-Davis - Aggies by 7
Pepperdine vs. San Diego - Toreros by 2
Winthrop vs. Charleston Southern - Buccaneers by 8
Longwood vs. VMI - Keydets by 7
East Tennessee State vs. Stetson - Hatters by 7
Campbell vs. Gardner-Webb - Bulldogs by 8
Virginia at Florida State - Cavaliers by 5
Kentucky at Georgia - Wildcats by 3
Drake vs. Bradley - Bulldogs by 2
Morehead State vs. Tennessee State - Tigers by 2
North Carolina A&T at Norfolk State - Spartans by 9
Prediction Results
NBA: 10-4 (.714) 609-300 overall (.670)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 106-85 overall (.555)
College Basketball: 23-9 (.719) 952-240 overall (.799)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 100-76 overall (.568)
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Basketball Predictions - 6 Mar
Upset picks are in italics.
NBA
Brooklyn at Charlotte - Nets by 7
Utah at Cleveland - Jazz by 1
Boston at Indiana - Pacers by 7
Philadelphia at Atlanta - Hawks by 13
Orlando at Miami - Heat by 19
New York at Detroit - Knicks by 4
Portland at Memphis - Grizzlies by 9
LA Lakers at New Orleans - Lakers by 1
Washington at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 3
Houston at Dallas - Rockets by 3
Chicago at San Antonio - Spurs by 12
Toronto at Phoenix - Suns by 1
Milwaukee at LA Clippers - Clippers by 11
Sacramento at Golden State - Warriors by 8
College Basketball
(5) Georgetown at Villanova - Hoyas by 1
Georgia Tech at (6) Miami - Hurricanes by 18
(7) Michigan at Purdue - Wolverines by 3
Vanderbilt at (11) Florida - Gators by 23
(12) New Mexico at Nevada - Lobos by 8
(13) Oklahoma State at Iowa State - Cyclones by 2
(16) Saint Louis at Xavier - Billikens by 1
DePaul at (17) Syracuse - Orange by 23
Richmond at (21) VCU - Rams by 16
(23) UCLA at Washington State - Bruins by 2
Air Force at San Diego State - Aztecs by 14
Minnesota at Nebraska - Golden Gophers by 6
Colorado State at Wyoming - Rams by 1
North Carolina at Maryland - Terrapins by 2
Holy Cross at Lafayette - Leopards by 7
American at Army - Black Knights by 13
Navy at Bucknell - Bison by 25
George Washington at LaSalle - Explorers by 15
Colgate at Lehigh - Mountain Hawks by 18
Quinnipiac at Long Island - Blackbirds by 5
Tennessee-Martin vs. Morehead State - Eagles by 11
Saint Francis-New York at Robert Morris - Colonials by 12
Central Connecticut State at Wagner - Seahawks by 12
Mount Saint Mary's at Bryant - Bulldogs by 8
Lipscomb at Mercer - Bears by 18
Connecticut at South Florida - Huskies by 6
Wake Forest at North Carolina State - Wolfpack by 15
West Virginia at Oklahoma - Sooners by 15
Loyola Marymount vs. Portland - Lions by 2
Eastern Illinois vs. Southeast Missouri State - Redhawks by 6
Stanford at California - Golden Bears by 7
North Florida vs. Florida-Gulf Coast - Eagles by 7
Prediction Results
NBA: 3-0 (1.000) 599-296 overall (.669)
College Basketball: 15-4 (.789) 929-231 overall (.801)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 98-75 overall (.566)
NBA
Brooklyn at Charlotte - Nets by 7
Utah at Cleveland - Jazz by 1
Boston at Indiana - Pacers by 7
Philadelphia at Atlanta - Hawks by 13
Orlando at Miami - Heat by 19
New York at Detroit - Knicks by 4
Portland at Memphis - Grizzlies by 9
LA Lakers at New Orleans - Lakers by 1
Washington at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 3
Houston at Dallas - Rockets by 3
Chicago at San Antonio - Spurs by 12
Toronto at Phoenix - Suns by 1
Milwaukee at LA Clippers - Clippers by 11
Sacramento at Golden State - Warriors by 8
College Basketball
(5) Georgetown at Villanova - Hoyas by 1
Georgia Tech at (6) Miami - Hurricanes by 18
(7) Michigan at Purdue - Wolverines by 3
Vanderbilt at (11) Florida - Gators by 23
(12) New Mexico at Nevada - Lobos by 8
(13) Oklahoma State at Iowa State - Cyclones by 2
(16) Saint Louis at Xavier - Billikens by 1
DePaul at (17) Syracuse - Orange by 23
Richmond at (21) VCU - Rams by 16
(23) UCLA at Washington State - Bruins by 2
Air Force at San Diego State - Aztecs by 14
Minnesota at Nebraska - Golden Gophers by 6
Colorado State at Wyoming - Rams by 1
North Carolina at Maryland - Terrapins by 2
Holy Cross at Lafayette - Leopards by 7
American at Army - Black Knights by 13
Navy at Bucknell - Bison by 25
George Washington at LaSalle - Explorers by 15
Colgate at Lehigh - Mountain Hawks by 18
Quinnipiac at Long Island - Blackbirds by 5
Tennessee-Martin vs. Morehead State - Eagles by 11
Saint Francis-New York at Robert Morris - Colonials by 12
Central Connecticut State at Wagner - Seahawks by 12
Mount Saint Mary's at Bryant - Bulldogs by 8
Lipscomb at Mercer - Bears by 18
Connecticut at South Florida - Huskies by 6
Wake Forest at North Carolina State - Wolfpack by 15
West Virginia at Oklahoma - Sooners by 15
Loyola Marymount vs. Portland - Lions by 2
Eastern Illinois vs. Southeast Missouri State - Redhawks by 6
Stanford at California - Golden Bears by 7
North Florida vs. Florida-Gulf Coast - Eagles by 7
Prediction Results
NBA: 3-0 (1.000) 599-296 overall (.669)
College Basketball: 15-4 (.789) 929-231 overall (.801)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 98-75 overall (.566)
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Basketball Predictions - 5 Mar
Upset picks are in italics.
NBA
Boston at Philadelphia - Celtics by 2
LA Lakers at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 12
Denver at Sacramento - Nuggets by 7
College Basketball
(14) Ohio State at (2) Indiana - Hoosiers by 14
Virginia Tech at (3) Duke - Blue Devils by 24
TCU at (9) Kansas State - Wildcats by 25
(15) Marquette at Rutgers - Golden Eagles by 2
Saint John's at (24) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 12
(25) Memphis at UTEP - Tigers by 3
Arkansas at Missouri - Tigers by 12
Southern Miss at Marshall - Golden Eagles by 10
Cleveland State at Illinois-Chicago - Flames by 9
Liberty at Coastal Carolina - Chanticleers by 11
Milwaukee at Green Bay - Phoenix by 17
Alabama at Ole Miss - Rebels by 10
Boise State at UNLV - Rebels by 8
Winthrop vs. Radford - Eagles by 3
Longwood vs. North Carolina-Asheville - Bulldogs by 15
Presbyterian vs. Campbell - Camels by 5
Miami-Ohio at Akron - Zips by 22
Illinois at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 6
Loyola-Illinois at Youngstown State - Penguins by 4
Prediction Results
NBA: 6-1 (.857) 596-296 overall (.668)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 106-84 overall (.558)
College Basketball: 4-0 (1.000) 914-227 overall (.801)
NBA
Boston at Philadelphia - Celtics by 2
LA Lakers at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 12
Denver at Sacramento - Nuggets by 7
College Basketball
(14) Ohio State at (2) Indiana - Hoosiers by 14
Virginia Tech at (3) Duke - Blue Devils by 24
TCU at (9) Kansas State - Wildcats by 25
(15) Marquette at Rutgers - Golden Eagles by 2
Saint John's at (24) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 12
(25) Memphis at UTEP - Tigers by 3
Arkansas at Missouri - Tigers by 12
Southern Miss at Marshall - Golden Eagles by 10
Cleveland State at Illinois-Chicago - Flames by 9
Liberty at Coastal Carolina - Chanticleers by 11
Milwaukee at Green Bay - Phoenix by 17
Alabama at Ole Miss - Rebels by 10
Boise State at UNLV - Rebels by 8
Winthrop vs. Radford - Eagles by 3
Longwood vs. North Carolina-Asheville - Bulldogs by 15
Presbyterian vs. Campbell - Camels by 5
Miami-Ohio at Akron - Zips by 22
Illinois at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 6
Loyola-Illinois at Youngstown State - Penguins by 4
Prediction Results
NBA: 6-1 (.857) 596-296 overall (.668)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 106-84 overall (.558)
College Basketball: 4-0 (1.000) 914-227 overall (.801)
Monday, March 4, 2013
College Basketball Rankings - 4 Mar
Some conferences have finished their regular season and are starting conference tournaments this week, while others are wrapping up their regular season this week, all preparing for Selection Sunday on Saint Patrick's Day, just two weeks from now. Gonzaga has taken over the top spot in the AP poll for the first time in its history, but they haven't quite risen that high in my rankings. Here are my current top 25 teams, with AP rank in parentheses and teams grouped by similar level of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (AP)
1. (1) Indiana (1-1) 25-4 (2)
2. (2) Florida (1-1) 23-5 (11)
3. (4) Louisville (2-0) 24-5 (8)
4. (3) Gonzaga (2-0) 29-2 (1)
5. (10) Kansas (2-0) 25-4 (4)
6. (5) Duke (1-1) 25-4 (3)
7. (6) Syracuse (0-2) 22-7 (17)
8. (11) Michigan State (0-1) 22-7 (10)
9. (7) Wisconsin (1-1) 20-9 (22)
10. (14) VCU (1-0) 23-6 (21)
11. (12) Ohio State (1-0) 21-7 (14)
12. (9) Pittsburgh (2-0) 23-7 (20)
13. (8) Michigan (1-1) 24-5 (7)
14. (18) Creighton (2-0) 24-7 (34)
15. (15) Middle Tennessee (2-0) 27-4 (35)
16. (13) Miami (1-1) 23-5 (6)
17. (16) Oklahoma State (2-0) 22-6 (13)
18. (19) Missouri (2-0) 21-8 (36)
19. (NR) Saint Mary's (2-0) 26-5 (28)
20. (17) Georgetown (2-0) 23-4 (5)
21. (NR) Minnesota (2-0) 20-9 (33)
22. (23) San Diego State (0-1) 20-8 (NR)
23. (NR) New Mexico (2-0) 25-4 (12)
24. (21) Arizona (0-2) 23-6 (18)
25. (22) Virginia (1-1) 20-9 (NR)
Dropped Out
(20) Colorado State (1-1) 22-7 (39)
(24) Wichita State (0-2) 24-7 (NR)
(25) Belmont (2-0) 24-6 (38)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 10 - 6
Big East - 4
ACC - 3
SEC - 2
MWC - 2
Big 12 - 2
WCC - 2
MVC - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Pac 12 - 1
Sun Belt - 1
Kansas is the hottest team in the nation right now, winning 6 straight conference games since their 3-game skid to open February dropped them from #2 in the nation. This week they beat Iowa State in overtime, even though the referees took the win away from the Cyclones in regulation, then they blew out West Virginia. They have reclaimed the top spot in the conference and have probably locked up the top seed in next week's conference tourney.
Creighton ended their regular season on a high note, beating the Wichita State Shockers in a game that decided the regular season conference title. The Bluejays also had a 3-game skid at the beginning of February, but they have rebounded and look to be in good shape for a run later this month.
VCU had only one game this week, but it was an important one, as they hosted the Butler Bulldogs, the most respected team in their conference, and the game was a blowout from the start. They rushed out to a 31-12 lead, and never let the margin get below 14 the rest of the way. The Rams have been the only Atlantic 10 team in my rankings for most of the season, and they have now cracked my top 10 for the first time since January at just the perfect time.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers may not be as highly respected as they were when they started the season 15-1, especially since they lost 8 of 11 games in January and February, but this week they took out the #1 Indiana Hoosiers, then blew out Penn State to get themselves out of a funk. They close the regular season with road games against two of the bottom teams in the conference, so they should be able to get enough momentum to earn themselves a tournament berth.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Texas Tech at (4) Kansas - Jayhawks by 30
Cincinnati at (8) Louisville - Cardinals by 15
Florida A&M at Norfolk State - Spartans by 17
Montana at Southern Utah - Grizzlies by 6
NBA
New York at Cleveland - Knicks by 2
Utah at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1
Orlando at New Orleans - Hornets by 9
Miami at Minnesota - Heat by 8
Atlanta at Denver - Nuggets by 7
Charlotte at Portland - Trail Blazers by 11
Toronto at Golden State - Warriors by 4
Prediction Results
NBA: 9-0 (1.000) 590-295 overall (.667)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 105-84 overall (.556)
College Basketball: 5-2 (.714) 910-227 overall (.800)
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (AP)
1. (1) Indiana (1-1) 25-4 (2)
2. (2) Florida (1-1) 23-5 (11)
3. (4) Louisville (2-0) 24-5 (8)
4. (3) Gonzaga (2-0) 29-2 (1)
5. (10) Kansas (2-0) 25-4 (4)
6. (5) Duke (1-1) 25-4 (3)
7. (6) Syracuse (0-2) 22-7 (17)
8. (11) Michigan State (0-1) 22-7 (10)
9. (7) Wisconsin (1-1) 20-9 (22)
10. (14) VCU (1-0) 23-6 (21)
11. (12) Ohio State (1-0) 21-7 (14)
12. (9) Pittsburgh (2-0) 23-7 (20)
13. (8) Michigan (1-1) 24-5 (7)
14. (18) Creighton (2-0) 24-7 (34)
15. (15) Middle Tennessee (2-0) 27-4 (35)
16. (13) Miami (1-1) 23-5 (6)
17. (16) Oklahoma State (2-0) 22-6 (13)
18. (19) Missouri (2-0) 21-8 (36)
19. (NR) Saint Mary's (2-0) 26-5 (28)
20. (17) Georgetown (2-0) 23-4 (5)
21. (NR) Minnesota (2-0) 20-9 (33)
22. (23) San Diego State (0-1) 20-8 (NR)
23. (NR) New Mexico (2-0) 25-4 (12)
24. (21) Arizona (0-2) 23-6 (18)
25. (22) Virginia (1-1) 20-9 (NR)
Dropped Out
(20) Colorado State (1-1) 22-7 (39)
(24) Wichita State (0-2) 24-7 (NR)
(25) Belmont (2-0) 24-6 (38)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 10 - 6
Big East - 4
ACC - 3
SEC - 2
MWC - 2
Big 12 - 2
WCC - 2
MVC - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Pac 12 - 1
Sun Belt - 1
Kansas is the hottest team in the nation right now, winning 6 straight conference games since their 3-game skid to open February dropped them from #2 in the nation. This week they beat Iowa State in overtime, even though the referees took the win away from the Cyclones in regulation, then they blew out West Virginia. They have reclaimed the top spot in the conference and have probably locked up the top seed in next week's conference tourney.
Creighton ended their regular season on a high note, beating the Wichita State Shockers in a game that decided the regular season conference title. The Bluejays also had a 3-game skid at the beginning of February, but they have rebounded and look to be in good shape for a run later this month.
VCU had only one game this week, but it was an important one, as they hosted the Butler Bulldogs, the most respected team in their conference, and the game was a blowout from the start. They rushed out to a 31-12 lead, and never let the margin get below 14 the rest of the way. The Rams have been the only Atlantic 10 team in my rankings for most of the season, and they have now cracked my top 10 for the first time since January at just the perfect time.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers may not be as highly respected as they were when they started the season 15-1, especially since they lost 8 of 11 games in January and February, but this week they took out the #1 Indiana Hoosiers, then blew out Penn State to get themselves out of a funk. They close the regular season with road games against two of the bottom teams in the conference, so they should be able to get enough momentum to earn themselves a tournament berth.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Texas Tech at (4) Kansas - Jayhawks by 30
Cincinnati at (8) Louisville - Cardinals by 15
Florida A&M at Norfolk State - Spartans by 17
Montana at Southern Utah - Grizzlies by 6
NBA
New York at Cleveland - Knicks by 2
Utah at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1
Orlando at New Orleans - Hornets by 9
Miami at Minnesota - Heat by 8
Atlanta at Denver - Nuggets by 7
Charlotte at Portland - Trail Blazers by 11
Toronto at Golden State - Warriors by 4
Prediction Results
NBA: 9-0 (1.000) 590-295 overall (.667)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 105-84 overall (.556)
College Basketball: 5-2 (.714) 910-227 overall (.800)
Sunday, March 3, 2013
Basketball Predictions - 3 Mar
Upset picks are in italics.
NBA
Miami at New York - Heat by 2
Oklahoma City at LA Clippers - Thunder by 1
Philadelphia at Washington - Wizards by 5
Memphis at Orlando - Grizzlies by 8
Charlotte at Sacramento - Kings by 7
Dallas at Houston - Rockets by 8
Detroit at San Antonio - Spurs by 15
Chicago at Indiana - Pacers by 7
Atlanta at LA Lakers - Lakers by 4
College Basketball
(9) Michigan State at (4) Michigan - Wolverines by 5
Purdue at (17) Wisconsin - Badgers by 19
Villanova at (23) Pittsburgh - Panthers by 14
Virginia at Boston College - Cavaliers by 5
North Carolina State at Georgia Tech - Wolfpack by 1
Florida State at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 15
Albany at Stony Brook - Seawolves by 9
Prediction Results
NBA: 3-1 (.750) 581-295 overall (.663)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 103-84 overall (.551)
College Basketball: 40-8 (.833) 905-225 overall (.801)
Upsets: 10-3 (.769) 96-75 overall (.561)
NBA
Miami at New York - Heat by 2
Oklahoma City at LA Clippers - Thunder by 1
Philadelphia at Washington - Wizards by 5
Memphis at Orlando - Grizzlies by 8
Charlotte at Sacramento - Kings by 7
Dallas at Houston - Rockets by 8
Detroit at San Antonio - Spurs by 15
Chicago at Indiana - Pacers by 7
Atlanta at LA Lakers - Lakers by 4
College Basketball
(9) Michigan State at (4) Michigan - Wolverines by 5
Purdue at (17) Wisconsin - Badgers by 19
Villanova at (23) Pittsburgh - Panthers by 14
Virginia at Boston College - Cavaliers by 5
North Carolina State at Georgia Tech - Wolfpack by 1
Florida State at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 15
Albany at Stony Brook - Seawolves by 9
Prediction Results
NBA: 3-1 (.750) 581-295 overall (.663)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 103-84 overall (.551)
College Basketball: 40-8 (.833) 905-225 overall (.801)
Upsets: 10-3 (.769) 96-75 overall (.561)
Saturday, March 2, 2013
Basketball Predictions - 2 Mar
Upset picks are in italics.
College Basketball
Iowa at (1) Indiana - Hoosiers by 19
Portland at (2) Gonzaga - Bulldogs by 33
(5) Miami at (3) Duke - Blue Devils by 10
West Virginia at (6) Kansas - Jayhawks by 20
Rutgers at (7) Georgetown - Hoyas by 17
Alabama at (8) Florida - Gators by 22
(10) Louisville at (12) Syracuse - Orange by 3
(11) Arizona at UCLA - Bruins by 2
(13) Kansas State at Baylor - Bears by 5
Wyoming at (14) New Mexico - Lobos by 13
Texas at (15) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 17
(18) Saint Louis at George Washington - Billikens by 3
(19) Memphis at UCF - Tigers by 5
(20) Butler at VCU - Rams by 12
(21) Notre Dame at (22) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 6
San Jose State at (25) Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 23
Old Dominion at Northeastern - Huskies by 14
Jacksonville State at Belmont - Bruins by 21
Iowa State at Oklahoma - Sooners by 4
Tennessee at Georgia - Volunteers by 3
Connecticut at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 6
Georgia Southern at Davidson - Wildcats by 21
Duquesne at LaSalle - Explorers by 22
Wichita State at Creighton - Bluejays by 8
Penn State at Minnesota - Golden Gophers by 19
Saint Peter's at Niagara - Purple Eagles by 15
Valparaiso at Green Bay - Phoenix by 2
Mercer at Stetson - Bears by 1
Robert Morris at Central Connecticut State - Colonials by 1
Kentucky at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 1
UNLV at Nevada - Rebels by 6
LSU at Missouri - Missouri Tigers by 16
Coastal Carolina at Charleston Southern - Buccaneers by 10
Colorado at California - Golden Bears by 4
Ole Miss at Mississippi State - Rebels by 15
Nebraska at Illinois - Fighting Illini by 16
Harvard at Pennsylvania - Crimson by 5
Akron at Buffalo - Zips by 7
Bethune Cookman at Norfolk State - Spartans by 11
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky - Blue Raiders by 10
Long Beach State at UC-Irvine - Anteaters by 10
Bucknell at Navy - Bison by 13
Northwestern State at Stephen F Austin - Lumberjacks by 12
Colorado State at Boise State - Broncos by 3
Illinois State at Northern Iowa - Panthers by 3
Montana at Montana State - Grizzlies by 7
Alcorn State at Texas Southern - Tigers by 18
Santa Clara at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 16
NBA
Golden State at Philadelphia - Warriors by 1
Brooklyn at Chicago - Bulls by 4
Toronto at Milwaukee - Bucks by 3
Minnesota at Portland - Trail Blazers by 2
Prediction Results
NBA: 9-3 (.750) 578-294 overall (.663)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 102-84 overall (.548)
College Basketball
Iowa at (1) Indiana - Hoosiers by 19
Portland at (2) Gonzaga - Bulldogs by 33
(5) Miami at (3) Duke - Blue Devils by 10
West Virginia at (6) Kansas - Jayhawks by 20
Rutgers at (7) Georgetown - Hoyas by 17
Alabama at (8) Florida - Gators by 22
(10) Louisville at (12) Syracuse - Orange by 3
(11) Arizona at UCLA - Bruins by 2
(13) Kansas State at Baylor - Bears by 5
Wyoming at (14) New Mexico - Lobos by 13
Texas at (15) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 17
(18) Saint Louis at George Washington - Billikens by 3
(19) Memphis at UCF - Tigers by 5
(20) Butler at VCU - Rams by 12
(21) Notre Dame at (22) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 6
San Jose State at (25) Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 23
Old Dominion at Northeastern - Huskies by 14
Jacksonville State at Belmont - Bruins by 21
Iowa State at Oklahoma - Sooners by 4
Tennessee at Georgia - Volunteers by 3
Connecticut at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 6
Georgia Southern at Davidson - Wildcats by 21
Duquesne at LaSalle - Explorers by 22
Wichita State at Creighton - Bluejays by 8
Penn State at Minnesota - Golden Gophers by 19
Saint Peter's at Niagara - Purple Eagles by 15
Valparaiso at Green Bay - Phoenix by 2
Mercer at Stetson - Bears by 1
Robert Morris at Central Connecticut State - Colonials by 1
Kentucky at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 1
UNLV at Nevada - Rebels by 6
LSU at Missouri - Missouri Tigers by 16
Coastal Carolina at Charleston Southern - Buccaneers by 10
Colorado at California - Golden Bears by 4
Ole Miss at Mississippi State - Rebels by 15
Nebraska at Illinois - Fighting Illini by 16
Harvard at Pennsylvania - Crimson by 5
Akron at Buffalo - Zips by 7
Bethune Cookman at Norfolk State - Spartans by 11
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky - Blue Raiders by 10
Long Beach State at UC-Irvine - Anteaters by 10
Bucknell at Navy - Bison by 13
Northwestern State at Stephen F Austin - Lumberjacks by 12
Colorado State at Boise State - Broncos by 3
Illinois State at Northern Iowa - Panthers by 3
Montana at Montana State - Grizzlies by 7
Alcorn State at Texas Southern - Tigers by 18
Santa Clara at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 16
NBA
Golden State at Philadelphia - Warriors by 1
Brooklyn at Chicago - Bulls by 4
Toronto at Milwaukee - Bucks by 3
Minnesota at Portland - Trail Blazers by 2
Prediction Results
NBA: 9-3 (.750) 578-294 overall (.663)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 102-84 overall (.548)
Friday, March 1, 2013
NBA Rankings - 1 Mar
Since there were two shortened weeks around the All-Star Break, I took a break from my weekly rankings, but now everything is updated and my latest rankings are ready to go. The #1 spot switched hands yet again, but the sizzling Heat still haven't been able to crack the top spot. Here is how each team currently stacks up, with teams grouped by similar level of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall
1. (2) Oklahoma City (3-1) 42-15
2. (1) San Antonio (3-2) 45-14
3. (3) Miami (5-0) 41-14
4. (4) LA Clippers (3-1) 42-18
5. (9) Indiana (4-1) 36-22
6. (5) Houston (2-2) 31-28
7. (6) Denver (4-1) 37-22
8. (8) Memphis (5-0) 38-18
9. (7) New York (2-2) 34-20
10. (10) LA Lakers (4-1) 29-30
11. (12) Atlanta (4-1) 33-23
12. (11) Chicago (3-3) 33-25
13. (15) Boston (2-3) 30-27
14. (14) Brooklyn (3-2) 34-24
15. (13) Golden State (3-3) 33-25
16. (16) Dallas (2-3) 25-32
17. (17) Utah (1-3) 31-27
18. (18) Toronto (2-3) 23-35
19. (20) Milwaukee (2-3) 28-28
20. (21) Minnesota (1-4) 20-35
21. (22) Washington (3-2) 18-38
22. (19) New Orleans (1-5) 20-39
23. (26) Cleveland (4-1) 20-38
24. (24) Portland (1-3) 26-31
25. (23) Detroit (2-4) 23-37
26. (25) Philadelphia (0-5) 22-34
27. (27) Phoenix (3-3) 20-39
28. (28) Sacramento (1-4) 20-39
29. (29) Orlando (1-5) 16-42
30. (30) Charlotte (1-4) 13-44
Oklahoma City rebounded from their first 3-game losing streak of the season with a 3-game winning streak, even though the quality of the opponents was far inferior to those who beat them. The Thunder have been increasing their margin of victory during their latest streak, from 16 against Minnesota to 30 against Chicago to 45 against New Orleans. It's not likely to extend to tonight's game against Denver, but if it does, there would be no argument against them for #1
Cleveland is 4-1 since the All-Star Break, losing only against the Miami Heat on the road last Sunday. Their playoff hopes are not very high, but with Kyrie Irving playing like the All-Star he is, this team could turn in a solid second half and prepare for a playoff run next year.
It may be kind of weird to call a team that just ended a 6-game losing streak hot, but the Sacramento Kings are coming off their two best games of the season. First, they nearly beat the Miami Heat on Tuesday, taking the defending champs to double overtime on the road before falling by 12. The very next night, they went to Orlando and dominated the Magic by 24 points, and tonight they are in San Antonio, where they hope to keep this hot streak going in what could be their last hurrah.
The Clippers' last two games against fellow contenders did not go as planned, with blowout losses coming at the hands of Miami and San Antonio, but every other game they've played in the last 3 weeks has gone heavily in LA's favor. Last night they faced the Indiana Pacers, who have been just as hot lately, and they had no trouble nabbing the victory on the road, which kept them just ahead of Indiana in my rankings.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Indiana at Toronto - Pacers by 3
New York at Washington - Knicks by 2
Houston at Orlando - Rockets by 10
Golden State at Boston - Celtics by 4
LA Clippers at Cleveland - Clippers by 6
Memphis at Miami - Heat by 8
Dallas at Brooklyn - Nets by 3
Detroit at New Orleans - Hornets by 4
Sacramento at San Antonio - Spurs by 17
Charlotte at Utah - Jazz by 11
Atlanta at Phoenix - Hawks by 3
Oklahoma City at Denver - Thunder by 3
Prediction Results
NBA: 5-5 (.500) 569-291 overall (.662)
Upsets: 1-3 (.250) 100-84 overall (.543)
College Basketball: 18-8 (.692) 865-217 overall (.799)
Upsets: 1-4 (.200) 86-72 overall (.544)
TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall
1. (2) Oklahoma City (3-1) 42-15
2. (1) San Antonio (3-2) 45-14
3. (3) Miami (5-0) 41-14
4. (4) LA Clippers (3-1) 42-18
5. (9) Indiana (4-1) 36-22
6. (5) Houston (2-2) 31-28
7. (6) Denver (4-1) 37-22
8. (8) Memphis (5-0) 38-18
9. (7) New York (2-2) 34-20
10. (10) LA Lakers (4-1) 29-30
11. (12) Atlanta (4-1) 33-23
12. (11) Chicago (3-3) 33-25
13. (15) Boston (2-3) 30-27
14. (14) Brooklyn (3-2) 34-24
15. (13) Golden State (3-3) 33-25
16. (16) Dallas (2-3) 25-32
17. (17) Utah (1-3) 31-27
18. (18) Toronto (2-3) 23-35
19. (20) Milwaukee (2-3) 28-28
20. (21) Minnesota (1-4) 20-35
21. (22) Washington (3-2) 18-38
22. (19) New Orleans (1-5) 20-39
23. (26) Cleveland (4-1) 20-38
24. (24) Portland (1-3) 26-31
25. (23) Detroit (2-4) 23-37
26. (25) Philadelphia (0-5) 22-34
27. (27) Phoenix (3-3) 20-39
28. (28) Sacramento (1-4) 20-39
29. (29) Orlando (1-5) 16-42
30. (30) Charlotte (1-4) 13-44
Oklahoma City rebounded from their first 3-game losing streak of the season with a 3-game winning streak, even though the quality of the opponents was far inferior to those who beat them. The Thunder have been increasing their margin of victory during their latest streak, from 16 against Minnesota to 30 against Chicago to 45 against New Orleans. It's not likely to extend to tonight's game against Denver, but if it does, there would be no argument against them for #1
Cleveland is 4-1 since the All-Star Break, losing only against the Miami Heat on the road last Sunday. Their playoff hopes are not very high, but with Kyrie Irving playing like the All-Star he is, this team could turn in a solid second half and prepare for a playoff run next year.
It may be kind of weird to call a team that just ended a 6-game losing streak hot, but the Sacramento Kings are coming off their two best games of the season. First, they nearly beat the Miami Heat on Tuesday, taking the defending champs to double overtime on the road before falling by 12. The very next night, they went to Orlando and dominated the Magic by 24 points, and tonight they are in San Antonio, where they hope to keep this hot streak going in what could be their last hurrah.
The Clippers' last two games against fellow contenders did not go as planned, with blowout losses coming at the hands of Miami and San Antonio, but every other game they've played in the last 3 weeks has gone heavily in LA's favor. Last night they faced the Indiana Pacers, who have been just as hot lately, and they had no trouble nabbing the victory on the road, which kept them just ahead of Indiana in my rankings.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Indiana at Toronto - Pacers by 3
New York at Washington - Knicks by 2
Houston at Orlando - Rockets by 10
Golden State at Boston - Celtics by 4
LA Clippers at Cleveland - Clippers by 6
Memphis at Miami - Heat by 8
Dallas at Brooklyn - Nets by 3
Detroit at New Orleans - Hornets by 4
Sacramento at San Antonio - Spurs by 17
Charlotte at Utah - Jazz by 11
Atlanta at Phoenix - Hawks by 3
Oklahoma City at Denver - Thunder by 3
Prediction Results
NBA: 5-5 (.500) 569-291 overall (.662)
Upsets: 1-3 (.250) 100-84 overall (.543)
College Basketball: 18-8 (.692) 865-217 overall (.799)
Upsets: 1-4 (.200) 86-72 overall (.544)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)