2 full rounds are down, and 68 teams have been whittled down to 16, but which of those teams has a realistic chance of winning it all? I've added in all of the past week's results, including those from the NIT, and have recalculated each team's odds of advancing deeper into the tournament. I'll start out with each team's current ranking according to my formula, then go into the breakdown.
TW. (LW) Team
1. (1) Louisville
2. (3) Florida
3. (2) Indiana
4. (5) Duke
6. (6) Kansas
7. (7) Ohio State
8. (12) Michigan
9. (13) Michigan State
10. (11) Syracuse
12. (17) Miami
15. (21) Arizona
19. (29) Wichita State
34. (54) Oregon
43. (38) Marquette
45. (49) LaSalle
84. (122) Florida Gulf Coast
Best Losing Teams
5. (4) Gonzaga
11. (14) VCU
13. (9) Creighton
14. (8) Wisconsin
16. (10) Pittsburgh
17. (15) Georgetown
18. (26) Minnesota
Odds of Making the Final Four
Florida - 57.1%
Louisville - 47.6%
Indiana - 42.8%
Ohio State - 35.7%
Duke - 27.2%
Miami - 25.6%
Wichita State - 25.0%
Arizona - 24.5%
Kansas - 22.4%
Syracuse - 21.7%
Michigan - 19.1%
Michigan State - 18.0%
LaSalle - 14.7%
Florida's path to the Final Four got much easier with Georgetown's demise in the first round, giving them the edge as the most likely team to represent its region. Louisville, Indiana, and Ohio State round out the most likely Final Four.
Odds of Winning the Championship
Florida - 21.3%
Louisville - 18.8%
Indiana - 13.0%
Duke - 8.1%
Ohio State - 7.0%
Kansas - 5.7%
Michigan - 4.4%
Miami - 4.3%
Michigan State - 4.2%
Syracuse - 4.0%
Arizona - 3.5%
Wichita State - 3.0%
Florida has also jumped to the top of this list, becoming the most likely team to win the title, although that doesn't make them the best team, just the one with the best chance to get there and win it. The Big 10 has a 28.6% chance of having the champion, while the Big East has 23.6% odds, with 7 teams representing the nation's two best conferences.
Random Championship Game Odds
All #1's - 11.2%
All Red - 11.0%
All Big 10 - 8.1% (All Big 10 Final Four - 0.5%)
All Birds - 5.1%
All Big East - 3.7%
All #3's - 3.7%
All State Nicknames - 3.6%
All #2's - 3.2%
All M's - 2.1%
All Colored Mascots - 1.9%
All ACC - 1.6%
All Kansas - 1.0%
All Mammals - 0.9%
All Michigan - 0.9%
All Mid-Majors - 0.04%
All Double Digit Seeds - 0.02%
Best Teams Left Out
Of the 8 teams that I felt should not have been left out of the field, 7 won their first NIT games, with only Kentucky losing. 5 of the 8 are still alive and among the final 8 teams in the NIT, and the two that lost between the first round and now lost to one of the 5 still alive.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Of the 8 teams I felt should have been left out, only LaSalle is still alive, and they were only one spot below my original tournament cutoff. Of the other 7, 3 won a game before falling in the round of 32, and 4 didn't even get out of the gates.
Underseeded Teams
On my underseeded teams list, Ole Miss and Minnesota both pulled off opening round upsets, while the others weren't able to overcome their poor seeding to keep themselves alive.
Overseeded Teams
Only 2 of my overseeded teams are still alive, and Marquette is lucky to be there, nearly falling in each of its first two games.
Number of First-Round Upsets
I predicted 10.4, and there were 10 that actually happened, so this one was right on for the second year in a row.
Most Likely Upsets
7 of the 10 upsets that happened were on my list of the 14 most likely upsets, just like last year, with 3 of the less likely ones coming through.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to pull off an Upset
I gave Florida Gulf Coast 20.3% odds of upsetting Georgetown, and while that was the lowest of any #15 seed, they pulled it off, fulfilling the one huge upset guess.
Number of Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
I predicted 3.5, and there are exactly 3 still alive, so this one was also right on.
Most Likely Cinderellas
Oregon and LaSalle were both on my top 10 Cinderellas list, but Florida Gulf Coast was not even on the radar, so I didn't catch them all this time.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
10 of my 12 most likely teams are still in the running, with Gonzaga and Georgetown not living up to expectations.
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