Thursday, April 18, 2019

Updated NBA Playoff Odds

Each NBA playoff series has now gone 2 games, with half of the series tied at 1-1, and half at 2-0 in favor of the higher seed. I've recalculated each team's odds of advancing after adding in the results of the past 5 days, and the results are below, with change since the beginning of the playoffs in parentheses:

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Bucks - 98.8% (+4.5)
2. Warriors - 89.2% (-5.5)
3. Rockets - 87.7% (+28.7)
4. Celtics - 87.6% (+22.4)
5. Raptors - 87.3% (-5.3)
6. Trail Blazers - 82.2% (+28.9)
7. 76ers - 68.3% (-7.1)
8. Nuggets - 52.1% (-7.6)
9. Spurs - 47.9% (+7.6)
10. Nets - 31.7% (+7.1)
11. Thunder - 17.8% (-28.9)
12. Magic - 12.7% (+5.3)
13. Pacers - 12.4% (-22.4)
14. Jazz - 12.3% (-28.7)
15. Clippers - 10.8% (+5.5)
16. Pistons - 1.2% (-4.5)

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

1. Bucks - 80.1% (+3.3)
2. Raptors - 76.5% (-3.6)
3. Warriors - 60.6% (-8.3)
4. Trail Blazers - 53.3% (+20.2)
5. Rockets - 34.8% (+15.6)
6. Nuggets - 21.4% (-4.2)
7. Celtics - 18.3% (+2.1)
8. 76ers - 15.6% (+0.4)
9. Spurs - 14.5% (+1.9)
10. Thunder - 10.8% (-17.9)
11. Magic - 4.7% (+2.0)
12. Jazz - 3.3% (-7.9)
13. Nets - 3.2% (+1.2)
14. Pacers - 1.4% (-4.3)
15. Clippers - 1.3% (+0.5)
16. Pistons - 0.2% (-1.2)

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

1. Bucks - 52.6% (+4.7)
2. Warriors - 50.0% (-7.4)
3. Raptors - 37.3% (-4.5)
4. Rockets - 23.8% (+11.2)
5. Trail Blazers - 15.4% (+6.4)
6. Celtics - 6.3% (+1.1)
7. Nuggets - 4.2% (-0.9)
8. 76ers - 2.9% (-0.4)
9. Thunder - 2.5% (-4.7)
10. Spurs - 2.1% (+0.3)
11. Jazz - 1.8% (-4.9)
12. Magic - 0.4% (+0.1)
13. Pacers - 0.33% (-0.97)
14. Clippers - 0.31% (+0.12)
15. Nets - 0.2% (+0.03)
16. Pistons - 0.03% (-0.13)

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

1. Bucks - 30.2% (+4.1)
2. Warriors - 29.7% (-5.7)
3. Raptors - 19.5% (-2.0)
4. Rockets - 10.9% (+5.4)
5. Trail Blazers - 4.9% (+2.0)
6. Celtics - 1.6% (+0.3)
7. Nuggets - 0.9% (-0.3)
8. Thunder - 0.7% (-1.6)
9. Jazz - 0.6% (-1.9)
10. 76ers - 0.5% (-0.1)
11. Spurs - 0.4% (+0.1)
12. Pacers - 0.05% (-0.15)
13. Clippers - 0.034% (+0.011)
14. Magic - 0.031% (+0.006)
15. Nets - 0.013% (+0.002)
16. Pistons - 0.0002% (-0.0128)

3 of the teams that are up 2-0 saw their odds rise quite a bit, while the Celtics are still stuck with the Bucks in the next round, so even winning this round doesn't help them that much.

Saturday, April 13, 2019

NBA Playoff Odds - 2019

The NBA playoffs start in a few hours, so I've broken down all of the possible scenarios to determine which teams have the best chance of winning it all this year. Because playoff experience is a big factor in playoff success, I adjusted each team's rating based on past playoff minutes played by its roster and how much those players contributed to the team's overall production. Here are my odds of each team progressing through each round, as well as my picks for the full playoffs:

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Warriors - 94.7 %
2. Bucks - 94.3%
3. Raptors - 92.6%
4. 76ers - 75.4%
5. Celtics - 65.2%
6. Nuggets - 59.7%
7. Rockets - 59.0%
8. Trail Blazers - 53.3%
9. Thunder - 46.7%
10. Jazz - 41.0%
11. Spurs - 40.3%
12. Pacers - 34.8%
13. Nets - 24.6%
14. Magic - 7.4%
15. Pistons - 5.7%
16. Clippers - 5.3%

The Eastern Conference First Round is not nearly as good as that of the West. Other than the Warriors-Clippers series, anything could happen.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

1. Raptors - 80.1%
2. Bucks - 76.8%
3. Warriors - 68.9%
4. Trail Blazers - 33.1%
5. Thunder - 28.7%
6. Nuggets - 25.6%
7. Rockets - 19.2%
8. Celtics - 16.2%
9. 76ers - 15.2%
10. Spurs - 12.6%
11. Jazz - 11.2%
12. Pacers - 5.7%
13. Magic - 2.7%
14. Nets - 2.0%
15. Pistons - 1.4%
16. Clippers - 0.8%

The Warriors odds are a little lower here because the next two best teams in the West (the Rockets and Jazz) are lined up to face them in the second round.

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 57.4%
2. Bucks - 47.9%
3. Raptors - 41.8%
4. Rockets - 12.6%
5. Trail Blazers - 9.0%
6. Thunder - 7.2%
7. Jazz - 6.7%
8. Celtics - 5.2%
9. Nuggets - 5.1%
10. 76ers - 3.3%
11. Spurs - 1.8%
12. Pacers - 1.3%
13. Magic - 0.3%
14. Clippers - 0.19%
15. Nets - 0.17%
16. Pistons - 0.16%

If the Warriors make it through the second round, they are almost definitely going to make the Finals again, while the Eastern Conference is pretty much a toss-up between the top 2 seeds.

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 35.4%
2. Bucks - 26.1%
3. Raptors - 21.5%
4. Rockets - 5.5%
5. Trail Blazers - 2.9%
6. Jazz - 2.5%
7. Thunder - 2.3%
8. Celtics - 1.3%
9. Nuggets - 1.2%
10. 76ers - 0.6%
11. Spurs - 0.3%
12. Pacers - 0.2%
13. Magic - 0.025%
14. Clippers - 0.023%
15. Pistons - 0.013%
16. Nets - 0.011%

This is really a 3-team race, with the defending champs as the favorite. There are several other teams that should not be counted out, but the bottom 6 or 7 have virtually no chance.

My Picks

First Round

(1) Bucks over (8) Pistons in 4
(2) Raptors over (7) Magic in 4
(3) 76ers over (6) Nets in 7
(4) Celtics over (5) Pacers in 7
(1) Warriors over (8) Clippers in 4
(7) Spurs over (2) Nuggets in 7
(6) Thunder over (3) Trail Blazers in 7
(5) Jazz over (4) Rockets in 7

Second Round

(1) Bucks over (4) Celtics in 6
(2) Raptors over (3) 76ers in 6
(1) Warriors over (5) Jazz in 7
(6) Thunder over (7) Spurs in 7

Conference Finals

(2) Raptors over (1) Bucks in 7
(1) Warriors over (6) Thunder in 6

NBA Finals

(1) Warriors over (2) Raptors in 5

The Raptors will have home court advantage over the Warriors, but they will be no match for the defending champs, who will take home their 4th title in 5 years.

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

NBA Predictions - 10 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

Indiana at Atlanta - Pacers by 5
Miami at Brooklyn - Nets by 1.5
Orlando at Charlotte - Hornets by 0.5
Detroit at New York - Pistons by 6
Chicago at Philadelphia - 76ers by 12
Golden State at Memphis - Warriors by 6.5
Oklahoma City at Milwaukee - Bucks by 6.5
Dallas at San Antonio - Spurs by 5.5
Minnesota at Denver - Nuggets by 7.5
Utah at LA Clippers - Jazz by 2.5
Sacramento at Portland - Trail Blazers by 7.5

Results

NBA: 9-2 (.818) 794-425 overall (.651)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 72-86 overall (.456)

Tuesday, April 9, 2019

NBA Predictions - 9 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Charlotte at Cleveland - Hornets by 5
Memphis at Detroit - Pistons by 4.5
Boston at Washington - Celtics by 4
Philadelphia at Miami - 76ers by 0.5
New York at Chicago - Bulls by 3.5
Toronto at Minnesota - Raptors by 4
Golden State at New Orleans - Warriors by 5.5
Phoenix at Dallas - Mavericks by 9
Denver at Utah - Jazz by 4
Houston at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 0.5
Portland at LA Lakers - Trail Blazers by 4

Results

NBA: 7-7 (.500) 785-423 overall (.650)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 70-85 overall (.452)
NCAA: 1-0 (1.000) 48-19 overall (.716)

Sunday, April 7, 2019

Basketball Predictions - 7 & 8 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Miami at Toronto - Raptors by 7.5
San Antonio at Cleveland - Spurs by 7.5
Oklahoma City at Minnesota - Thunder by 2
Charlotte at Detroit - Pistons by 3.5
Brooklyn at Indiana - Pacers by 5.5
Dallas at Memphis - Grizzlies by 1
Phoenix at Houston - Rockets by 15
Atlanta at Milwaukee - Bucks by 15.5
Orlando at Boston - Celtics by 5
Washington at New York - Wizards by 3.5
LA Clippers at Golden State - Warriors by 7
Denver at Portland - Trail Blazers by 3
New Orleans at Sacramento - Kings by 3.5
Utah at LA Lakers - Jazz by 5

NCAA

(3) Texas Tech vs. (1) Virginia - Cavaliers by 2.5

Results

NBA: 1-1 (.500) 778-416 overall (.652)
Upsets: 69-85 overall (.448)
NCAA: 1-1 (.500) 47-19 overall (.712)

Saturday, April 6, 2019

Basketball Predictions - 6 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Brooklyn at Milwaukee - Bucks by 11
Philadelphia at Chicago - 76ers by 7

NCAA

(5) Auburn vs. (1) Virginia - Cavaliers by 5.5
(3) Texas Tech vs. (2) Michigan State - Spartans by 2

Results

NBA: 8-5 (.615) 777-415 overall (.652)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 69-85 overall (.448)
CBI: 0-1 (.000) 14-4 overall (.778)

Friday, April 5, 2019

Basketball Predictions - 5 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Toronto at Charlotte - Raptors by 4.5
Atlanta at Orlando - Magic by 7.5
San Antonio at Washington - Spurs by 2
Boston at Indiana - Pacers by 2
New York at Houston - Rockets by 15.5
Miami at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 1.5
Detroit at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 5.5
Memphis at Dallas - Mavericks by 4
Sacramento at Utah - Jazz by 8
New Orleans at Phoenix - Pelicans by 4
Portland at Denver - Nuggets by 1.5
Cleveland at Golden State - Warriors by 16.5
LA Lakers at LA Clippers - Clippers by 5.5

CBI

South Florida at DePaul - Blue Demons by 5.5

Results

NBA: 3-0 (1.000) 769-410 overall (.652)
NIT: 1-0 (1.000) 22-9 overall (.710)
CIT: 1-0 (1.000) 12-11 overall (.522)

Thursday, April 4, 2019

Basketball Predictions - 4 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Milwaukee at Philadelphia - Bucks by 3
Cleveland at Sacramento - Kings by 10
Golden State at LA Lakers - Warriors by 5.5

NIT

(5) Lipscomb vs. (2) Texas - Longhorns by 1

CIT

Green Bay at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 5

Results

NBA: 7-5 (.583) 766-410 overall (.651)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 68-85 overall (.444)
CBI: 1-0 (1.000) 14-3 overall (.824)

Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Basketball Predictions - 3 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Indiana at Detroit - Pistons by 0.5
New York at Orlando - Magic by 11
Chicago at Washington - Wizards by 7
Philadelphia at Atlanta - 76ers by 5.5
Toronto at Brooklyn - Raptors by 3.5
Boston at Miami - Celtics by 0.5
Charlotte at New Orleans - Pelicans by 2.5
Minnesota at Dallas - Mavericks by 2.5
San Antonio at Denver - Nuggets by 4
Utah at Phoenix - Jazz by 10.5
Memphis at Portland - Trail Blazers by 9
Houston at LA Clippers - Rockets by 0.5

CBI

South Florida at DePaul - Blue Demons by 5.5

Results

NBA: 4-0 (1.000) 759-405 overall (.652)
Upsets: 68-84 overall (.447)
NIT: 2-0 (1.000) 21-9 overall (.700)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000)
CIT: 2-0 (1.000) 11-11 overall (.500)

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Basketball Predictions - 2 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

LA Lakers at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 6.5
Atlanta at San Antonio - Spurs by 9.5
Houston at Sacramento - Rockets by 2
Denver at Golden State - Warriors by 4.5

NIT

(6) Wichita State vs. (5) Lipscomb - Bisons by 4
(2) Texas vs. (1) TCU - Longhorns by 1.5

CIT

Hampton at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 4.5
Texas Southern at Green Bay - Phoenix by 5.5

Results

NBA: 8-1 (.889) 755-405 overall (.651)
Upsets: 68-84 overall (.447)
CBI: 1-0 (1.000) 13-3 overall (.813)

Monday, April 1, 2019

Basketball Predictions - 1 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Detroit at Indiana - Pacers by 4.5
Miami at Boston - Celtics by 5.5
Milwaukee at Brooklyn - Bucks by 6.5
Chicago at New York - Knicks by 0.5
Orlando at Toronto - Raptors by 7
Portland at Minnesota - Trail Blazers by 3
Philadelphia at Dallas - 76ers by 2
Charlotte at Utah - Jazz by 9.5
Cleveland at Phoenix - Suns by 2.5

CBI

DePaul at South Florida - Bulls by 5.5

Results

NBA: 2-5 (.286) 747-404 overall (.649)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 68-84 overall (.447)
NCAA: 0-2 (.000) 46-18 overall (.719)