NBA Playoff Odds - 2026

The playoff field is finally set, and games will begin later today on the journey to crown this season's NBA champion, with the defending champions as the clear favorite to repeat. Using the results of every game from this season, and after calculating the odds of any possible playoff scenario, I've come up with each team's odds of advancing through this season's playoffs and ending up with the title, and have included my own picks as well.

Odds of Winning First Round

(1) Thunder - 95.25%

(2) Spurs - 94.2%

(1) Pistons - 90.3%

(2) Celtics - 90.2%

(3) Knicks - 73.6%

(5) Rockets - 68.1%

(3) Nuggets - 66.8%

(4) Cavaliers - 62.3%

(5) Raptors - 37.7%

(6) Timberwolves - 33.2%

(4) Lakers - 31.9%

(6) Hawks - 26.4%

(7) 76ers - 9.8%

(8) Magic - 9.7%

(7) Trail Blazers - 5.8%

(8) Suns - 4.75%

The only lower seed that is favored in the first round is Houston, who is facing a Lakers team with multiple injuries and is far worse than its record would suggest, even when healthy.

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(1) Thunder - 84.9%

(2) Spurs - 73.8%

(1) Pistons - 71.0%

(2) Celtics - 62.9%

(3) Knicks - 29.3%

(3) Nuggets - 19.1%

(4) Cavaliers - 18.1%

(5) Rockets - 11.2%

(5) Raptors - 8.0%

(6) Timberwolves - 5.9%

(6) Hawks - 5.6%

(8) Magic - 2.9%

(4) Lakers - 2.4%

(7) 76ers - 2.2%

(8) Suns - 1.6%

(7) Trail Blazers - 1.3%

The top seeds in each conference are heavy favorites to reach the Conference Finals, but several other teams have at least a chance.

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(1) Thunder - 62.2%

(1) Pistons - 41.5%

(2) Celtics - 35.8%

(2) Spurs - 28.9%

(3) Knicks - 13.1%

(4) Cavaliers - 5.6%

(3) Nuggets - 3.9%

(5) Rockets - 3.6%

(5) Raptors - 1.8%

(6) Hawks - 1.4%

(6) Timberwolves - 0.7%

(4) Lakers - 0.415%

(8) Magic - 0.411%

(7) 76ers - 0.34%

(8) Suns - 0.26%

(7) Trail Blazers - 0.07%

Only the Spurs really threaten the Thunder in the West, while there are 3 or possibly 4 teams in the East with a realistic shot.

Odds of Winning NBA Championship

(1) Thunder - 48.2%

(2) Spurs - 18.3%

(1) Pistons - 14.1%

(2) Celtics - 12.1%

(3) Knicks - 3.0%

(3) Nuggets - 1.4%

(5) Rockets - 1.3%

(4) Cavaliers - 0.9%

(5) Raptors - 0.18%

(6) Timberwolves - 0.16%

(6) Hawks - 0.13%

(4) Lakers - 0.08%

(8) Suns - 0.05%

(8) Magic - 0.023%

(7) 76ers - 0.019%

(7) Trail Blazers - 0.008%

Oklahoma City is the favorite again by a wide margin, but it's much smaller than last year, when they had a 65.8% chance of winning it all. If the Spurs can defeat the Thunder, their odds of winning the Finals are 63.5%, as they would have home court over any team in the East.

My Picks

First Round

(1) Pistons over (8) Magic in 5

(2) Celtics over (7) 76ers in 4

(3) Knicks over (6) Hawks in 6

(5) Raptors over (4) Cavaliers in 6

(1) Thunder over (8) Suns in 6

(2) Spurs over (7) Trail Blazers in 5

(3) Nuggets over (6) Timberwolves in 4

(5) Rockets over (4) Lakers in 6

Second Round

(1) Pistons over (5) Raptors in 5

(2) Celtics over (3) Knicks in 5

(1) Thunder over (5) Rockets in 5

(2) Spurs over (3) Nuggets in 5

Conference Finals

(2) Celtics over (1) Pistons in 6

(1) Thunder over (2) Spurs in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Thunder over (2) Celtics in 7

In a matchup of the 2 most recent champions, the Thunder become the first team to repeat since the 2018 Warriors, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wins his second straight Finals MVP.

NBA Rankings - 21 Mar

The hottest team in the NBA over the past month has been the LA Lakers, who have won 8 in a row and 11 of their past 12, and have gone from a projected spot in the play-in to a #3 finish in the West. Charlotte also continues to rise, moving into my top 10 for the first time ever, while the Golden State Warriors are headed in the opposite direction, losing 9 of 11 since my last update, and 18 of their past 26 overall, though their play-in spot is safe, since no other team below them in the West is trying to win. Here are my full current rankings and playoff picks:

				Record		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	1	Oklahoma City	-9.475	55	15	64	18	W1
2	3	San Antonio	-6.751	52	18	61	21	W2
3	2	Detroit	-6.023	51	19	59	23	E1
4	4	Boston	-5.963	47	23	55	27	E2
5	6	New York	-4.973	46	25	53	29	E3
6	5	Houston	-3.719	42	27	51	31	W4
7	7	Cleveland	-3.702	43	27	51	31	E4
8	8	Denver	-3.617	43	28	50	32	W5
9	9	Minnesota	-2.741	43	28	49	33	W6
10	13	Charlotte	-2.552	36	34	43	39	E10
11	10	Miami	-2.373	38	32	45	37	E7
12	12	Toronto	-1.725	39	30	46	36	E5
13	14	Phoenix	-1.555	39	31	46	36	W7
14	17	LA Lakers	-1.548	45	25	52	30	W3
15	19	Atlanta	-0.836	38	32	44	38	E9
16	16	Orlando	-0.716	38	31	45	37	E6
17	11	Golden State	-0.706	33	37	40	42	W10
18	18	LA Clippers	-0.457	34	36	41	41	W9
19	15	Philadelphia	-0.052	38	32	44	38	E8
20	20	Portland	0.7428	35	36	41	41	W8
21	21	Memphis	3.0687	24	45	28	54
22	25	New Orleans	3.4013	25	46	29	53
23	24	Chicago	3.7197	28	42	33	49
24	22	Milwaukee	4.4309	28	41	32	50
25	23	Dallas	4.7682	23	47	27	55
26	26	Utah	6.2764	21	49	24	58
27	27	Brooklyn	7.0977	17	53	21	61
28	29	Sacramento	8.2465	18	53	21	61
29	28	Indiana	8.2896	15	55	17	65
30	30	Washington	9.7521	16	53	18	64

Playoff Picks

Play-In

(7) Heat over (8) 76ers

(10) Hornets over (9) Hawks

(10) Hornets over (8) 76ers

(7) Suns over (8) Trail Blazers

(9) Clippers over (10) Warriors

(8) Trail Blazers over (9) Clippers

First Round

(1) Pistons over (10) Hornets in 6

(2) Celtics over (7) Heat in 6

(3) Knicks over (6) Magic in 6

(4) Cavaliers over (5) Raptors in 6

(1) Thunder over (8) Trail Blazers in 4

(2) Spurs over (7) Suns in 6

(3) Lakers over (6) Timberwolves in 7

(4) Rockets over (5) Nuggets in 7

Second Round

(1) Pistons over (4) Cavaliers in 6

(2) Celtics over (3) Knicks in 6

(1) Thunder over (4) Rockets in 5

(2) Spurs over (3) Lakers in 6

Conference Finals

(1) Pistons over (2) Celtics in 7

(1) Thunder over (2) Spurs in 6

NBA Finals

(1) Thunder over (1) Pistons in 6

NBA Rankings - 28 Feb

The hottest team of the past month has been the Cleveland Cavaliers, who won 8 in a row to start February, before losing 3 of 4 in the past week, with all 3 losses coming by single digits on the road. The coldest team of February has been Phoenix, who lost 7 of 11, and earned two of those wins on buzzer-beaters against inferior teams, though injuries to their two best players have had an impact. Here are my full current rankings and playoff picks:

				Record		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	1	Oklahoma City	-9.525	46	15	63	19	W1
2	3	Detroit	-6.13	44	14	61	21	E1
3	4	San Antonio	-6.108	43	16	59	23	W2
4	5	Boston	-5.744	39	20	54	28	E2
5	2	Houston	-4.817	37	21	53	29	W3
6	6	New York	-4.413	38	22	52	30	E3
7	11	Cleveland	-3.893	37	24	51	31	E4
8	9	Denver	-3.568	37	23	50	32	W4
9	7	Minnesota	-3.149	37	23	50	32	W5
10	12	Miami	-2.039	31	29	44	38	E7
11	10	Golden State	-1.98	31	28	44	38	W8
12	13	Toronto	-1.65	34	25	47	35	E5
13	15	Charlotte	-1.519	29	31	41	41	E9
14	8	Phoenix	-1.389	34	26	46	36	W6
15	14	Philadelphia	-1.071	33	26	45	37	E6
16	17	Orlando	-0.289	31	27	43	39	E8
17	16	LA Lakers	0.295	34	24	46	36	W7
18	19	LA Clippers	0.3034	27	31	40	42	W10
19	18	Atlanta	0.3937	30	31	40	42	E10
20	20	Portland	0.8552	29	31	41	41	W9
21	21	Memphis	2.5486	22	36	31	51
22	24	Milwaukee	2.6673	26	32	36	46
23	23	Dallas	3.8414	21	38	28	54
24	22	Chicago	4.022	24	36	32	50
25	25	New Orleans	4.6003	18	42	26	56
26	27	Utah	6.3265	18	41	25	57
27	26	Brooklyn	6.9164	15	44	21	61
28	28	Indiana	7.2123	15	45	20	62
29	29	Sacramento	8.2522	14	47	20	62
30	30	Washington	9.4463	16	42	20	62

Playoff Picks

Play In

(7) Heat over (8) Magic

(9) Hornets over (10) Hawks

(9) Hornets over (8) Magic

(8) Warriors over (7) Lakers

(9) Trail Blazers over (10) Clippers

(7) Lakers over (9) Trail Blazers

First Round

(1) Pistons over (9) Hornets in 6

(2) Celtics over (7) Heat in 6

(3) Knicks over (6) 76ers in 6

(4) Cavaliers over (5) Raptors in 6

(1) Thunder over (7) Lakers in 4

(2) Spurs over (8) Warriors in 6

(3) Rockets over (6) Suns in 6

(4) Nuggets over (5) Timberwolves in 7

Second Round

(1) Pistons over (4) Cavaliers in 6

(2) Celtics over (3) Knicks in 7

(1) Thunder over (4) Nuggets in 5

(2) Spurs over (3) Rockets in 7

Conference Finals

(1) Pistons over (2) Celtics in 7

(1) Thunder over (2) Spurs in 6

NBA Finals

(1) Thunder over (1) Pistons in 6