Two more undefeated teams went down, leaving us with only six remaining, and there is a guaranteed loser next week among them, because of the most anticipated game in years, LSU-Alabama. The upsets were not limited to the undefeated teams, and as a result there was a big shakeup in the rankings, even with three of the top 5 taking the week off. Here are the updated rankings, with this week's ranking followed by last week's ranking, team name, overall record, rating, AP rank, and BCS rank.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (AP) (BCS)
1. (2) Stanford (8-0) -32.94 (4) (4)
2. (4) Alabama (8-0) -28.41 (2) (2)
3. (5) Oklahoma State (8-0) -28.18 (3) (3)
4. (3) LSU (8-0) -28.13 (1) (1)
5. (1) Oregon (7-1) -25.16 (6) (8)
6. (8) Oklahoma (7-1) -24.47 (7) (6)
7. (6) Boise State (7-0) -22.97 (5) (5)
8. (7) Wisconsin (6-2) -20.97 (19) (20)
9. (9) Arizona State (6-2) -17.66 (20) (19)
10. (NR) Missouri (4-4) -14.364 (NR) (NR)
11. (15) Houston (8-0) -14.362 (14) (13)
12. (NR) Nebraska (7-1) -13.43 (9) (10)
13. (12) Texas A&M (5-3) -12.42 (31) (NR)
14. (16) USC (6-2) -12.27 (21) (NR)
15. (22) Notre Dame (5-3) -11.97 (33) (NR)
16. (13) Michigan (7-1) -11.74 (13) (15)
17. (NR) Texas (5-2) -10.47 (26) (21)
18. (18) Florida State (5-3) -10.34 (32) (NR)
19. (11) Michigan State (6-2) -9.26 (15) (17)
20. (23) South Carolina (7-1) -9.134 (10) (9)
21. (20) Georgia (6-2) -9.128 (18) (18)
22. (NR) Utah (4-4) -8.46 (NR) (NR)
23. (NR) Ohio State (5-3) -8.45 (29) (NR)
24. (NR) Southern Miss (7-1) -8.39 (27) (25)
25. (NR) Washington (6-2) -8.27 (28) (NR)
Dropped Out
(21) Clemson (8-1) -6.79 (11) (11)
(14) TCU (6-2) -6.17 (30) (NR)
(19) Arizona (2-6) -6.01 (NR) (NR)
(10) Kansas State (7-1) -2.55 (17) (14)
(24) California (4-4) -1.35 (NR) (NR)
(25) Miami (4-4) 1.54 (NR) (NR)
(17) Texas Tech (5-3) 7.35 (NR) (NR)
Ranked Teams By Conference
Pac 12 - 6
Big 12 - 5
Big 10 - 5
SEC - 4
CUSA - 2
MWC - 1
Ind - 1
ACC - 1
The team of the week was the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who looked much better in their second big game as a member of the Big Ten than they did in their first, when they went to Wisconsin and lost 48-17. This week they welcomed Michigan State to town, fresh off a big win over Wisconsin, which means each of the three has beaten one of the others. The win over the Spartans was dominant from start to finish, with the visitors only scoring 3 points in the entire game.
The Oklahoma State-Baylor game was supposed to be a high-scoring shootout, but it turned out to be high-scoring for only one team. The game was over before halftime, and by the end of the third quarter the Cowboys led 49-3 before allowing Baylor to get into the end zone a few times in the final period. They still have Kansas State and Oklahoma on their schedule, and if they win out they will definitely be in the national championship game.
The Cowboys weren't the only hot team in Oklahoma this weekend. The Sooners, who were knocked from the unbeatens just a week ago, returned the favor this week in dominant fashion, embarrassing the Kansas State Wildcats 58-17, including a perfect 35-0 in the second half as a close game became a blowout. They could still reach the title game with a big win over the Cowboys to close the season.
Notre Dame lost a tough game to a very good USC team a week ago, and they took out their frustration on Navy this week, netting their second blowout of the season over one of the service academies. They've got a few easy games coming up before their season-ending matchup with Stanford, who may be playing for a spot in the national championship game by that point.
There is a forgotten team among the six unbeatens, the one that is ranked far outside the top 5, where all of the others reside, and that team is Houston, led by Case Keenum. Their strength of schedule may be weak, but their stars are fantasy dream players. In their most recent game, Keenum threw for 534 yards and 9 touchdowns, and receiver Patrick Edwards pulled in 7 passes for 318 yards and 5 touchdowns. I'm sure glad I had Keenum on my fantasy team this week.
Prediction Results
Ranked Teams: 16-10 (.615) 163-63 overall (.721)
Unranked Teams: 19-8 (.704) 31-21 overall (.596)
Upsets: 5-5 (.500) 27-47 overall (.365)
Sunday, October 30, 2011
Thursday, October 27, 2011
NFL Rankings - 27 Oct
Last week I asked a poll question regarding which of the Harbaugh brothers is more likely to lead his team to the Super Bowl, and the overwhelming winner of the poll was Jim, head coach of the 49ers, and after the events of this weekend, it appears that my readers are correct, as Baltimore could not handle lowly Jacksonville while San Francisco saw its division lead climb to 3 games only 6 games into the season. Here are this week's fresh rankings, with team name followed by overall record, rating, and previous ranking.
TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. New Orleans (5-2) -15.67 (10)
2. San Francisco (5-1) -14.15 (1)
3. Green Bay (7-0) -13.19 (4)
4. Detroit (5-2) -9.28 (3)
5. Houston (4-3) -7.93 (12)
6. Chicago (4-3) -7.38 (9)
7. New England (5-1) -7.03 (5)
8. Baltimore (4-2) -7.01 (2)
9. Dallas (3-3) -5.98 (6)
10. Atlanta (4-3) -5.72 (16)
11. Buffalo (4-2) -4.98 (7)
12. Philadelphia (2-4) -2.63 (11)
13. NY Jets (4-3) -1.65 (8)
14. Carolina (2-5) -1.34 (23)
15. Pittsburgh (5-2) -1.27 (15)
16. Cincinnati (4-2) 1.08 (14)
17. Tampa Bay (4-3) 1.41 (22)
18. San Diego (4-2) 1.58 (21)
19. Minnesota (1-6) 2.00 (27)
20. NY Giants (4-2) 2.04 (17)
21. Washington (3-3) 3.49 (19)
22. Kansas City (3-3) 3.94 (32)
23. Jacksonville (2-5) 4.14 (25)
24. Seattle (2-4) 5.35 (18)
25. Oakland (4-3) 7.44 (13)
26. Denver (2-4) 7.46 (24)
27. Tennessee (3-3) 8.65 (20)
28. Arizona (1-5) 8.81 (29)
29. Miami (0-6) 10.71 (28)
30. Cleveland (3-3) 12.44 (26)
31. Saint Louis (0-6) 15.57 (31)
32. Indianapolis (0-7) 17.48 (30)
New Orleans was the big winner of the weekend, totally taking apart the Indianapolis Colts and taking over the #1 spot in the overall rankings this week, while the Colts dropped into last place. Their two losses were both in single-possession road games to teams with winning records, one of which is Green Bay, the undefeated defending champs. New Orleans may be poised to retake the Super Bowl title from the Packers, but they will have to go through Green Bay to get there.
Houston shook off two losses that had dropped them to .500 by beating the former Houston team, Tennessee, at their home in Nashville. It was only the second time they've beaten a team who has at least won a game this season, but this one was especially impressive, with a final score of 41-7 after a game that was pretty much decided by halftime.
Atlanta is also getting back into the playoff hunt after 3 wins in 4 games, and their latest win was a great one, getting a win over the Lions, who had only lost once previously this season. The Falcons have two straight bye weeks (if you include the game against Indy) before facing off against the top-rated Saints in an important division game.
Carolina finally pulled out a win over a good team after a series of close calls against Atlanta, Green Bay, Chicago, and New Orleans, and the road is starting to get a little easier for Rookie of the Year favorite Cam Newton and the Panthers, with struggling Detroit as their only opponent with a winning record in the coming month.
Prediction Results
NFL: 8-5 (.615) 66-37 overall (.641)
Upsets: 4-2 (.667) 26-44 overall (.371)
TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. New Orleans (5-2) -15.67 (10)
2. San Francisco (5-1) -14.15 (1)
3. Green Bay (7-0) -13.19 (4)
4. Detroit (5-2) -9.28 (3)
5. Houston (4-3) -7.93 (12)
6. Chicago (4-3) -7.38 (9)
7. New England (5-1) -7.03 (5)
8. Baltimore (4-2) -7.01 (2)
9. Dallas (3-3) -5.98 (6)
10. Atlanta (4-3) -5.72 (16)
11. Buffalo (4-2) -4.98 (7)
12. Philadelphia (2-4) -2.63 (11)
13. NY Jets (4-3) -1.65 (8)
14. Carolina (2-5) -1.34 (23)
15. Pittsburgh (5-2) -1.27 (15)
16. Cincinnati (4-2) 1.08 (14)
17. Tampa Bay (4-3) 1.41 (22)
18. San Diego (4-2) 1.58 (21)
19. Minnesota (1-6) 2.00 (27)
20. NY Giants (4-2) 2.04 (17)
21. Washington (3-3) 3.49 (19)
22. Kansas City (3-3) 3.94 (32)
23. Jacksonville (2-5) 4.14 (25)
24. Seattle (2-4) 5.35 (18)
25. Oakland (4-3) 7.44 (13)
26. Denver (2-4) 7.46 (24)
27. Tennessee (3-3) 8.65 (20)
28. Arizona (1-5) 8.81 (29)
29. Miami (0-6) 10.71 (28)
30. Cleveland (3-3) 12.44 (26)
31. Saint Louis (0-6) 15.57 (31)
32. Indianapolis (0-7) 17.48 (30)
New Orleans was the big winner of the weekend, totally taking apart the Indianapolis Colts and taking over the #1 spot in the overall rankings this week, while the Colts dropped into last place. Their two losses were both in single-possession road games to teams with winning records, one of which is Green Bay, the undefeated defending champs. New Orleans may be poised to retake the Super Bowl title from the Packers, but they will have to go through Green Bay to get there.
Houston shook off two losses that had dropped them to .500 by beating the former Houston team, Tennessee, at their home in Nashville. It was only the second time they've beaten a team who has at least won a game this season, but this one was especially impressive, with a final score of 41-7 after a game that was pretty much decided by halftime.
Atlanta is also getting back into the playoff hunt after 3 wins in 4 games, and their latest win was a great one, getting a win over the Lions, who had only lost once previously this season. The Falcons have two straight bye weeks (if you include the game against Indy) before facing off against the top-rated Saints in an important division game.
Carolina finally pulled out a win over a good team after a series of close calls against Atlanta, Green Bay, Chicago, and New Orleans, and the road is starting to get a little easier for Rookie of the Year favorite Cam Newton and the Panthers, with struggling Detroit as their only opponent with a winning record in the coming month.
Prediction Results
NFL: 8-5 (.615) 66-37 overall (.641)
Upsets: 4-2 (.667) 26-44 overall (.371)
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Football Predictions - 25-31 Oct
While we're waiting for the huge showdown between #1 and #2 next weekend, there are quite a few interesting games being played this weekend, although only two match up two ranked teams against each other. The game of the week is Oklahoma, coming off its first home loss in years, heading to Manhattan, Kansas to face the surprising Wildcats, who have cracked the top 10 despite not even receiving a single vote in the preseason polls. Here are my picks for all of this weekend's games, with upset picks in italics.
Tuesday
Troy at Florida International - Golden Panthers by 18
Wednesday
Connecticut at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 8
Thursday
Virginia at Miami - Hurricanes by 28
Rice at (17) Houston - Cougars by 33
Friday
Brigham Young at Texas Christian - Horned Frogs by 21
Saturday
North Carolina State at Florida State - Seminoles by 21
Purdue at (18) Michigan - Wolverines by 26
(11) Michigan State at (14) Nebraska - Spartans by 2
Missouri at (16) Texas A&M - Aggies by 12
(10) Arkansas at Vanderbilt - Razorbacks by 1
(12) Virginia Tech at Duke - Hokies by 7
Washington State at (7) Oregon - Ducks by 45
(22) Georgia at Florida - Gators by 1
(25) West Virginia at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 5
Baylor at (3) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 26
Illinois at (19) Penn State - Nittany Lions by 11
(9) Oklahoma at (8) Kansas State - Sooners by 1
Navy at Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 20
Colorado at (21) Arizona State - Sun Devils by 35
California at UCLA - Golden Bears by 8
Mississippi at (23) Auburn - Tigers by 14
Kansas at (24) Texas - Longhorns by 29
Iowa State at (20) Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 26
(13) South Carolina at Tennessee - Volunteers by 1
(5) Clemson at Georgia Tech - Tigers by 2
(15) Wisconsin at Ohio State - Badgers by 12
(6) Stanford at USC - Cardinal by 17
Arizona at Washington - Huskies by 1
Northwestern at Indiana - Wildcats by 4
Syracuse at Louisville - Orange by 5
Alabama-Birmingham at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 15
Central Michigan at Akron - Chippewas by 5
Bowling Green at Kent State - Falcons by 6
Air Force at New Mexico - Falcons by 35
Ball State at Western Michigan - Broncos by 15
Boston College at Maryland - Terrapins by 14
Iowa at Minnesota - Hawkeyes by 12
Tulane at East Carolina - Pirates by 24
Wake Forest at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 6
Buffalo at Miami-Ohio - Redhawks by 7
Southern Methodist at Tulsa - Golden Hurricane by 3
Western Kentucky at Louisiana-Monroe - Warhawks by 2
Memphis at Central Florida - Knights by 24
San Jose State at Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 16
Hawaii at Idaho - Warriors by 9
Colorado State at Nevada-Las Vegas - Rams by 1
Mississippi State at Kentucky - Bulldogs by 19
North Texas at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 17
Louisiana-Lafayette at Middle Tennessee State - Blue Raiders by 4
Nevada at New Mexico State - Wolf Pack by 12
Oregon State at Utah - Utes by 6
Southern Mississippi at Texas-El Paso - Golden Eagles by 8
Wyoming at San Diego State - Aztecs by 26
Sunday
Indianapolis at Tennessee - Titans by 13
New Orleans at Saint Louis - Saints by 28
Miami at NY Giants - Giants by 12
Minnesota at Carolina - Panthers by 7
Arizona at Baltimore - Ravens by 20
Jacksonville at Houston - Texans by 16
Washington at Buffalo - Bills by 12
Detroit at Denver - Lions by 13
Cincinnati at Seattle - Bengals by 1
Cleveland at San Francisco - 49ers by 30
New England at Pittsburgh - Patriots by 2
Dallas at Philadelphia - Eagles by 1
Monday
San Diego at Kansas City - Chiefs by 1
Tuesday
Troy at Florida International - Golden Panthers by 18
Wednesday
Connecticut at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 8
Thursday
Virginia at Miami - Hurricanes by 28
Rice at (17) Houston - Cougars by 33
Friday
Brigham Young at Texas Christian - Horned Frogs by 21
Saturday
North Carolina State at Florida State - Seminoles by 21
Purdue at (18) Michigan - Wolverines by 26
(11) Michigan State at (14) Nebraska - Spartans by 2
Missouri at (16) Texas A&M - Aggies by 12
(10) Arkansas at Vanderbilt - Razorbacks by 1
(12) Virginia Tech at Duke - Hokies by 7
Washington State at (7) Oregon - Ducks by 45
(22) Georgia at Florida - Gators by 1
(25) West Virginia at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 5
Baylor at (3) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 26
Illinois at (19) Penn State - Nittany Lions by 11
(9) Oklahoma at (8) Kansas State - Sooners by 1
Navy at Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 20
Colorado at (21) Arizona State - Sun Devils by 35
California at UCLA - Golden Bears by 8
Mississippi at (23) Auburn - Tigers by 14
Kansas at (24) Texas - Longhorns by 29
Iowa State at (20) Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 26
(13) South Carolina at Tennessee - Volunteers by 1
(5) Clemson at Georgia Tech - Tigers by 2
(15) Wisconsin at Ohio State - Badgers by 12
(6) Stanford at USC - Cardinal by 17
Arizona at Washington - Huskies by 1
Northwestern at Indiana - Wildcats by 4
Syracuse at Louisville - Orange by 5
Alabama-Birmingham at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 15
Central Michigan at Akron - Chippewas by 5
Bowling Green at Kent State - Falcons by 6
Air Force at New Mexico - Falcons by 35
Ball State at Western Michigan - Broncos by 15
Boston College at Maryland - Terrapins by 14
Iowa at Minnesota - Hawkeyes by 12
Tulane at East Carolina - Pirates by 24
Wake Forest at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 6
Buffalo at Miami-Ohio - Redhawks by 7
Southern Methodist at Tulsa - Golden Hurricane by 3
Western Kentucky at Louisiana-Monroe - Warhawks by 2
Memphis at Central Florida - Knights by 24
San Jose State at Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 16
Hawaii at Idaho - Warriors by 9
Colorado State at Nevada-Las Vegas - Rams by 1
Mississippi State at Kentucky - Bulldogs by 19
North Texas at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 17
Louisiana-Lafayette at Middle Tennessee State - Blue Raiders by 4
Nevada at New Mexico State - Wolf Pack by 12
Oregon State at Utah - Utes by 6
Southern Mississippi at Texas-El Paso - Golden Eagles by 8
Wyoming at San Diego State - Aztecs by 26
Sunday
Indianapolis at Tennessee - Titans by 13
New Orleans at Saint Louis - Saints by 28
Miami at NY Giants - Giants by 12
Minnesota at Carolina - Panthers by 7
Arizona at Baltimore - Ravens by 20
Jacksonville at Houston - Texans by 16
Washington at Buffalo - Bills by 12
Detroit at Denver - Lions by 13
Cincinnati at Seattle - Bengals by 1
Cleveland at San Francisco - 49ers by 30
New England at Pittsburgh - Patriots by 2
Dallas at Philadelphia - Eagles by 1
Monday
San Diego at Kansas City - Chiefs by 1
Sunday, October 23, 2011
College Football Rankings - 23 Oct
Of the 10 teams that were unbeaten entering week 8 of the college football season, 7 of them dominated their opponent this weekend, while one struggled and two went down in close battles. All 8 are among my top 25 teams, but not all are as highly rated as the national polls have them. In fact, this week's new #1 team is not one of the 8 currently undefeated teams. They are a team who is well-acquainted with my top spot, though, as they held it for the majority of last season. Here are the latest rankings, with current ranking followed by previous ranking, team name, overall record, rating, AP rank, and BCS rank.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (AP) (BCS)
1. (7) Oregon (6-1) -34.43 (7) (7)
2. (1) Stanford (7-0) -33.91 (4) (6)
3. (3) LSU (8-0) -30.65 (1) (1)
4. (5) Alabama (8-0) -30.64 (2) (2)
5. (8) Oklahoma State (7-0) -25.77 (3) (3)
6. (2) Boise State (7-0) -25.30 (5) (4)
7. (6) Wisconsin (6-1) -25.03 (12) (15)
8. (4) Oklahoma (6-1) -22.47 (11) (9)
9. (10) Arizona State (5-2) -19.62 (23) (21)
10. (16) Kansas State (7-0) -17.06 (10) (8)
11. (12) Michigan State (6-1) -16.57 (9) (11)
12. (9) Texas A&M (5-2) -15.69 (16) (16)
13. (15) Michigan (6-1) -14.78 (17) (18)
14. (19) TCU (5-2) -14.00 (34) (NR)
15. (11) Houston (7-0) -13.23 (18) (17)
16. (NR) USC (6-1) -11.78 (20) (NR)
17. (NR) Texas Tech (5-2) -11.50 (19) (20)
18. (14) Florida State (4-3) -11.099 (NR) (NR)
19. (NR) Arizona (2-5) -11.098 (NR) (NR)
20. (NR) Georgia (5-2) -10.87 (22) (22)
21. (22) Clemson (8-0) -10.60 (6) (5)
22. (13) Notre Dame (4-3) -10.05 (NR) (NR)
23. (NR) South Carolina (6-1) -9.44 (14) (13)
24. (NR) California (4-3) -9.40 (NR) (NR)
25. (NR) Miami (4-3) -9.35 (33) (NR)
Dropped Out
(17) Missouri (3-4) -8.89 (NR) (NR)
(24) Southern Miss (6-1) -8.39 (27) (NR)
(21) Arkansas (6-1) -7.18 (8) (10)
(20) Temple (5-3) -7.15 (NR) (NR)
(25) Washington (5-2) -6.02 (29) (NR)
(23) Utah (3-4) -5.12 (NR) (NR)
(18) West Virginia (5-2) -2.68 (25) (25)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Pac 12 - 6
Big 12 - 5
SEC - 4
Big 10 - 3
ACC - 3
MWC - 2
CUSA - 1
Ind - 1
Oregon took over the top spot from conference rival Stanford this week, which seems a little strange, since they had similar margins of victory while playing teams of very different calibers. The thing that boosted Oregon was their strength of schedule, which got a huge boost this week from Cal, Arizona, and LSU all winning by 20 or more points, all of which makes Oregon beating them even more impressive. Stanford, meanwhile, saw its previous opponents - Duke, Washington State, and Colorado - get beaten this weekend, a couple of them unexpectedly.
The only remaining game on the calendar for this season that may hold as much intrigue as the Oregon-Stanford on November 12 is the LSU-Alabama game the week before. The two teams are ranked in the top spots in every poll but mine, are blowing out every opponent they face except for Oregon, and they represent the conference with 5 straight BCS championships. Add to that the fact that they are each taking a bye week right before the showdown and you have the recipe for one of the greatest games ever seen.
Boise State tumbled a few spots in the rankings this week despite holding on to their perfect season, because they were the lone remaining unbeaten team that did not win decisively this weekend. They should have had an easy time with Air Force, but instead the game was still within one possession entering the final minutes. They'll need a strong showing against TCU in three weeks to have any chance of entering the title picture this season.
The biggest surprise in my rankings is Arizona, who has already lost 5 games, but when you look at who has beaten them, you see 3 of the top 5 teams among them, along with USC, who only has one loss all season. The combined record of those 4 opponents is 26-2, so it's no surprise that Arizona's record is not very good, but they are still a decent team who can still have a shot at making a bowl game.
Clemson is the lowest-rated of the undefeated teams, falling even below Houston, mostly because the ACC is not as strong as many people assume it is. All three ranked teams it upset last month have proven to be severely overrated, and Georgia Tech has shown for the past two weeks that they are no different, which means Clemson won't be the one exposing them like they did the others.
Prediction Results
Ranked Teams: 18-7 (.720) 147-53 overall (.735)
Unranked Teams: 12-13 (.480)
Upsets: 2-4 (.333) 22-42 overall (.344)
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (AP) (BCS)
1. (7) Oregon (6-1) -34.43 (7) (7)
2. (1) Stanford (7-0) -33.91 (4) (6)
3. (3) LSU (8-0) -30.65 (1) (1)
4. (5) Alabama (8-0) -30.64 (2) (2)
5. (8) Oklahoma State (7-0) -25.77 (3) (3)
6. (2) Boise State (7-0) -25.30 (5) (4)
7. (6) Wisconsin (6-1) -25.03 (12) (15)
8. (4) Oklahoma (6-1) -22.47 (11) (9)
9. (10) Arizona State (5-2) -19.62 (23) (21)
10. (16) Kansas State (7-0) -17.06 (10) (8)
11. (12) Michigan State (6-1) -16.57 (9) (11)
12. (9) Texas A&M (5-2) -15.69 (16) (16)
13. (15) Michigan (6-1) -14.78 (17) (18)
14. (19) TCU (5-2) -14.00 (34) (NR)
15. (11) Houston (7-0) -13.23 (18) (17)
16. (NR) USC (6-1) -11.78 (20) (NR)
17. (NR) Texas Tech (5-2) -11.50 (19) (20)
18. (14) Florida State (4-3) -11.099 (NR) (NR)
19. (NR) Arizona (2-5) -11.098 (NR) (NR)
20. (NR) Georgia (5-2) -10.87 (22) (22)
21. (22) Clemson (8-0) -10.60 (6) (5)
22. (13) Notre Dame (4-3) -10.05 (NR) (NR)
23. (NR) South Carolina (6-1) -9.44 (14) (13)
24. (NR) California (4-3) -9.40 (NR) (NR)
25. (NR) Miami (4-3) -9.35 (33) (NR)
Dropped Out
(17) Missouri (3-4) -8.89 (NR) (NR)
(24) Southern Miss (6-1) -8.39 (27) (NR)
(21) Arkansas (6-1) -7.18 (8) (10)
(20) Temple (5-3) -7.15 (NR) (NR)
(25) Washington (5-2) -6.02 (29) (NR)
(23) Utah (3-4) -5.12 (NR) (NR)
(18) West Virginia (5-2) -2.68 (25) (25)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Pac 12 - 6
Big 12 - 5
SEC - 4
Big 10 - 3
ACC - 3
MWC - 2
CUSA - 1
Ind - 1
Oregon took over the top spot from conference rival Stanford this week, which seems a little strange, since they had similar margins of victory while playing teams of very different calibers. The thing that boosted Oregon was their strength of schedule, which got a huge boost this week from Cal, Arizona, and LSU all winning by 20 or more points, all of which makes Oregon beating them even more impressive. Stanford, meanwhile, saw its previous opponents - Duke, Washington State, and Colorado - get beaten this weekend, a couple of them unexpectedly.
The only remaining game on the calendar for this season that may hold as much intrigue as the Oregon-Stanford on November 12 is the LSU-Alabama game the week before. The two teams are ranked in the top spots in every poll but mine, are blowing out every opponent they face except for Oregon, and they represent the conference with 5 straight BCS championships. Add to that the fact that they are each taking a bye week right before the showdown and you have the recipe for one of the greatest games ever seen.
Boise State tumbled a few spots in the rankings this week despite holding on to their perfect season, because they were the lone remaining unbeaten team that did not win decisively this weekend. They should have had an easy time with Air Force, but instead the game was still within one possession entering the final minutes. They'll need a strong showing against TCU in three weeks to have any chance of entering the title picture this season.
The biggest surprise in my rankings is Arizona, who has already lost 5 games, but when you look at who has beaten them, you see 3 of the top 5 teams among them, along with USC, who only has one loss all season. The combined record of those 4 opponents is 26-2, so it's no surprise that Arizona's record is not very good, but they are still a decent team who can still have a shot at making a bowl game.
Clemson is the lowest-rated of the undefeated teams, falling even below Houston, mostly because the ACC is not as strong as many people assume it is. All three ranked teams it upset last month have proven to be severely overrated, and Georgia Tech has shown for the past two weeks that they are no different, which means Clemson won't be the one exposing them like they did the others.
Prediction Results
Ranked Teams: 18-7 (.720) 147-53 overall (.735)
Unranked Teams: 12-13 (.480)
Upsets: 2-4 (.333) 22-42 overall (.344)
Saturday, October 22, 2011
Top 100 NBA Players - #25
Julius Erving
(Kalb: #15, Simmons: #16, BBR: #12)
When Julius Erving finally made his NBA debut in 1976, he was already an established superstar, having spent five seasons in the ABA and winning the final 3 MVP awards that league gave out. If I was doing a ranking of the top professional basketball players of all time, and not just NBA players, Erving would definitely jump up much closer to the top 10, but when you consider only the NBA portion of his career, it's still quite impressive.
Erving started out his time in the NBA as the second-best player in the entire league, with only Kareem playing at a higher level than the 76ers' new star. Each led his team to the top seed in his conference entering the playoffs, but Erving went a step beyond Kareem there, advancing to the NBA Finals in his "rookie" season, where they lost to Bill Walton and the Trail Blazers in Walton's only healthy season.
The next season Philadelphia once again took the top seed in the East, but they lost in the Eastern Conference Finals to the eventual champion Washington Bullets. Two years later, it was Philadelphia pulling off the conference final upset, taking down Larry Bird and the Celtics 4 games to 1, setting up a huge Finals showdown with the Los Angeles Lakers, who were led by another young star named Magic Johnson, who eventually led them to the championship and left Erving ringless still.
In 1981, Erving won his first and only NBA MVP award, although I feel that it should have gone to Moses Malone, an opinion I outlined in my previous player profile. Malone ended up taking the Rockets all the way to the Finals, where they lost to Boston, while Erving lost to those same Celtics one round earlier. Even at age 30, there was no denying that Dr. J was still one of the league's premier players.
In 1982, Erving led the 76ers to the Finals for the third time in his NBA career, but they once again were no match for Magic Johnson and the Lakers. One of the reasons that Erving is not rated higher is that he was never quite good enough to lead a team all the way to the championship without more help, and that help came the next season in the form of Moses Malone.
With Malone as a teammate rather than an opponent, Erving and the 76ers returned to the NBA Finals, this time sweeping the Lakers and posting a total record of 12-1 during their dominant playoff run. Erving was finally an NBA Champion, but he wasn't the star of the show anymore. That was Moses, who won both the regular season and Finals MVP awards in the only championship season for either player.
Erving hung on for a few more seasons, but he was obviously on the downside of his career, and he was never one of the top 10 players again. In 11 NBA seasons, Erving never missed the playoffs, and he led his team to the NBA Finals 3 times and the conference finals twice before he was replaced by Malone. With Malone leading the way, he won a championship, and saw the conference finals one more time, but at that point he had also been surpassed by a young Charles Barkley. Overall, he was one of the league's most dynamic and exciting stars, and he saw quite a bit of success despite the fact that he never led a title run himself.
Erving and Malone's careers followed very similar trajectories, except for the fact that Malone hung on a lot longer than Erving, as he was more willing to accept a reserve role. Both started their careers in the ABA, then came over to the NBA when that league folded, although Erving came over as a superstar, and Malone as a bit of an unknown. They both had failed trips to the Finals before teaming up in 1983 to win their only championship, but Erving gets the edge because he led Philly to 3 NBA Finals before Malone arrived, while Malone had only made it there once with the Rockets.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Football Predictions - 20-24 Oct
This week I have decided to make predictions for every college game, not just the ones involving good teams, so I am picking all 50 games involving two FBS teams, along with all 13 NFL games, for the first time. I started off with Tuesday's game, which I picked correctly, and we'll see whether picking more games from lower-ranked teams has any impact on my win percentage.
Tuesday
FIU at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 9
Thursday
UCF at UAB - Knights by 16
UCLA at Arizona - Wildcats by 2
Friday
Rutgers at Louisville - Scarlet Knights by 6
(15) West Virginia at Syracuse - Mountaineers by 16
Saturday
Cincinnati at South Florida - Bulls by 8
(4) Oklahoma State at Missouri - Cowboys by 4
North Carolina at (7) Clemson - Tigers by 19
Northern Illinois at Buffalo - Huskies by 10
Indiana at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 23
(11) Kansas State at Kansas - Wildcats by 20
(23) Illinois at Purdue - Fighting Illini by 2
(9) Arkansas at Mississippi - Razorbacks by 20
Wake Forest at Duke - Blue Devils by 4
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan - Broncos by 6
Central Michigan at Ball State - Cardinals by 17
New Mexico at TCU - Horned Frogs by 53
Boston College at (12) Virginia Tech - Hokies by 28
Louisiana Tech at Utah State - Aggies by 1
Maryland at Florida State - Seminoles by 22
(17) Texas A&M at Iowa State - Aggies by 24
Air Force at (5) Boise State - Broncos by 44
(20) Auburn at (1) LSU - LSU Tigers by 34
(13) Nebraska at Minnesota - Cornhuskers by 26
Temple at Bowling Green - Owls by 17
North Carolina State at Virginia - Cavaliers by 13
Ohio at Akron - Bobcats by 16
(22) Georgia Tech at Miami - Hurricanes by 10
East Carolina at Navy - Midshipmen by 23
Memphis at Tulane - Green Wave by 16
(10) Oregon at Colorado - Ducks by 31
Louisiana-Lafayette at Western Kentucky - Ragin Cajuns by 3
Fresno State at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 17
Marshall at (19) Houston - Cougars by 31
Louisiana-Monroe at North Texas - Warhawks by 8
Utah at California - Utes by 8
(21) Penn State at Northwestern - Nittany Lions by 5
Army at Vanderbilt - Commodores by 17
Tulsa at Rice - Golden Hurricane by 4
Miami-Ohio at Toledo - Rockets by 30
Tennessee at (2) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 32
USC at Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 13
(25) Washington at (8) Stanford - Cardinal by 26
(6) Wisconsin at (16) Michigan State - Badgers by 8
Texas Tech at (3) Oklahoma - Sooners by 30
Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic - Owls by 3
SMU at Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 7
Colorado State at UTEP - Miners by 28
Oregon State at Washington State - Cougars by 14
Sunday
New Mexico State at Hawaii - Warriors by 19
Atlanta at Detroit - Lions by 14
Chicago at Tampa Bay - Bears by 4
Seattle at Cleveland - Seahawks by 4
Denver at Miami - Dolphins by 2
Houston at Tennessee - Texans by 1
San Diego at NY Jets - Jets by 12
Washington at Carolina - Panthers by 1
Kansas City at Oakland - Raiders by 19
Pittsburgh at Arizona - Steelers by 8
Saint Louis at Dallas - Cowboys by 24
Green Bay at Minnesota - Packers by 15
Indianapolis at New Orleans - Saints by 21
Monday
Baltimore at Jacksonville - Ravens by 18
Tuesday
FIU at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 9
Thursday
UCF at UAB - Knights by 16
UCLA at Arizona - Wildcats by 2
Friday
Rutgers at Louisville - Scarlet Knights by 6
(15) West Virginia at Syracuse - Mountaineers by 16
Saturday
Cincinnati at South Florida - Bulls by 8
(4) Oklahoma State at Missouri - Cowboys by 4
North Carolina at (7) Clemson - Tigers by 19
Northern Illinois at Buffalo - Huskies by 10
Indiana at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 23
(11) Kansas State at Kansas - Wildcats by 20
(23) Illinois at Purdue - Fighting Illini by 2
(9) Arkansas at Mississippi - Razorbacks by 20
Wake Forest at Duke - Blue Devils by 4
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan - Broncos by 6
Central Michigan at Ball State - Cardinals by 17
New Mexico at TCU - Horned Frogs by 53
Boston College at (12) Virginia Tech - Hokies by 28
Louisiana Tech at Utah State - Aggies by 1
Maryland at Florida State - Seminoles by 22
(17) Texas A&M at Iowa State - Aggies by 24
Air Force at (5) Boise State - Broncos by 44
(20) Auburn at (1) LSU - LSU Tigers by 34
(13) Nebraska at Minnesota - Cornhuskers by 26
Temple at Bowling Green - Owls by 17
North Carolina State at Virginia - Cavaliers by 13
Ohio at Akron - Bobcats by 16
(22) Georgia Tech at Miami - Hurricanes by 10
East Carolina at Navy - Midshipmen by 23
Memphis at Tulane - Green Wave by 16
(10) Oregon at Colorado - Ducks by 31
Louisiana-Lafayette at Western Kentucky - Ragin Cajuns by 3
Fresno State at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 17
Marshall at (19) Houston - Cougars by 31
Louisiana-Monroe at North Texas - Warhawks by 8
Utah at California - Utes by 8
(21) Penn State at Northwestern - Nittany Lions by 5
Army at Vanderbilt - Commodores by 17
Tulsa at Rice - Golden Hurricane by 4
Miami-Ohio at Toledo - Rockets by 30
Tennessee at (2) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 32
USC at Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 13
(25) Washington at (8) Stanford - Cardinal by 26
(6) Wisconsin at (16) Michigan State - Badgers by 8
Texas Tech at (3) Oklahoma - Sooners by 30
Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic - Owls by 3
SMU at Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 7
Colorado State at UTEP - Miners by 28
Oregon State at Washington State - Cougars by 14
Sunday
New Mexico State at Hawaii - Warriors by 19
Atlanta at Detroit - Lions by 14
Chicago at Tampa Bay - Bears by 4
Seattle at Cleveland - Seahawks by 4
Denver at Miami - Dolphins by 2
Houston at Tennessee - Texans by 1
San Diego at NY Jets - Jets by 12
Washington at Carolina - Panthers by 1
Kansas City at Oakland - Raiders by 19
Pittsburgh at Arizona - Steelers by 8
Saint Louis at Dallas - Cowboys by 24
Green Bay at Minnesota - Packers by 15
Indianapolis at New Orleans - Saints by 21
Monday
Baltimore at Jacksonville - Ravens by 18
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
NFL Rankings - 18 Oct
The Harbaugh boys are riding high this week after both guided their teams to impressive victories on Sunday, helping them maintain the top two spots in the NFL rankings for a second straight week. The Ravens had a great second half as they beat a very competitive Texan team, while the 49ers took down one of the final two unbeaten teams, leaving the Green Bay Packers as the lone unblemished team in the league, though they are still not the best. That honor goes to one of the Harbaughs' teams, which is revealed below. Each team's current rankings is followed by its name, record, rating, and previous ranking.
TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. San Francisco (5-1) -14.70 (2)
2. Baltimore (4-1) -12.62 (1)
3. Detroit (5-1) -9.52 (5)
4. Green Bay (6-0) -9.47 (4)
5. New England (5-1) -8.71 (3)
6. Dallas (2-3) -6.89 (10)
7. Buffalo (4-2) -5.36 (6)
8. NY Jets (3-3) -4.20 (9)
9. Chicago (3-3) -3.97 (14)
10. New Orleans (4-2) -3.37 (8)
11. Philadelphia (2-4) -2.69 (16)
12. Houston (3-3) -1.80 (12)
13. Oakland (4-2) -0.93 (7)
14. Cincinnati (4-2) 0.02 (13)
15. Pittsburgh (4-2) 0.52 (11)
16. Atlanta (3-3) 0.63 (23)
17. NY Giants (4-2) 1.38 (24)
18. Seattle (2-3) 1.67 (21)
19. Washington (3-2) 2.65 (19)
20. Tennessee (3-2) 2.77 (17)
21. San Diego (4-1) 4.06 (15)
22. Tampa Bay (4-2) 4.26 (28)
23. Carolina (1-5) 6.44 (20)
24. Denver (1-4) 8.04 (22)
25. Jacksonville (1-5) 8.92 (26)
26. Cleveland (2-3) 9.39 (30)
27. Minnesota (1-5) 9.41 (18)
28. Miami (0-5) 9.56 (25)
29. Arizona (1-4) 11.96 (27)
30. Indianapolis (0-6) 13.06 (32)
31. Saint Louis (0-5) 13.09 (31)
32. Kansas City (2-3) 14.25 (29)
The biggest surprise of the weekend was Tampa Bay, who was coming off an embarrassing loss to the 49ers in week 5. They were the underdog against visiting New Orleans, but they took over the game in the second quarter and never looked back, even taking out Saints coach Sean Payton in the process. I'm still not convinced that the Bucs are an elite team, or even a playoff-caliber team, but the loss to San Francisco isn't looking quite as bad now that the Niners are the top-ranked team in the league.
The New York Giants also pulled off a big surprise as well on Sunday, winning the battle of New York by beating the Bills, who came into the game with only one loss and a lot of momentum, along with a top-10 ranking. The game was close throughout, with the Giants pulling through in the final minutes with a field goal to avoid overtime and put them at the top of their division for now.
The Cleveland Browns moved up a few spots this week despite losing again, but this time they looked a lot better in failing. They fell behind early in Oakland, then made a furious fourth quarter comeback that nearly went all the way after they recovered an onside kick with one minute left. They have a winnable game next week against Seattle before travelling to San Francisco the week after to face the top-ranked Niners.
Prediction Results
NFL: 10-3 (.769) 58-32 overall (.644)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 20-38 overall (.345)
TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. San Francisco (5-1) -14.70 (2)
2. Baltimore (4-1) -12.62 (1)
3. Detroit (5-1) -9.52 (5)
4. Green Bay (6-0) -9.47 (4)
5. New England (5-1) -8.71 (3)
6. Dallas (2-3) -6.89 (10)
7. Buffalo (4-2) -5.36 (6)
8. NY Jets (3-3) -4.20 (9)
9. Chicago (3-3) -3.97 (14)
10. New Orleans (4-2) -3.37 (8)
11. Philadelphia (2-4) -2.69 (16)
12. Houston (3-3) -1.80 (12)
13. Oakland (4-2) -0.93 (7)
14. Cincinnati (4-2) 0.02 (13)
15. Pittsburgh (4-2) 0.52 (11)
16. Atlanta (3-3) 0.63 (23)
17. NY Giants (4-2) 1.38 (24)
18. Seattle (2-3) 1.67 (21)
19. Washington (3-2) 2.65 (19)
20. Tennessee (3-2) 2.77 (17)
21. San Diego (4-1) 4.06 (15)
22. Tampa Bay (4-2) 4.26 (28)
23. Carolina (1-5) 6.44 (20)
24. Denver (1-4) 8.04 (22)
25. Jacksonville (1-5) 8.92 (26)
26. Cleveland (2-3) 9.39 (30)
27. Minnesota (1-5) 9.41 (18)
28. Miami (0-5) 9.56 (25)
29. Arizona (1-4) 11.96 (27)
30. Indianapolis (0-6) 13.06 (32)
31. Saint Louis (0-5) 13.09 (31)
32. Kansas City (2-3) 14.25 (29)
The biggest surprise of the weekend was Tampa Bay, who was coming off an embarrassing loss to the 49ers in week 5. They were the underdog against visiting New Orleans, but they took over the game in the second quarter and never looked back, even taking out Saints coach Sean Payton in the process. I'm still not convinced that the Bucs are an elite team, or even a playoff-caliber team, but the loss to San Francisco isn't looking quite as bad now that the Niners are the top-ranked team in the league.
The New York Giants also pulled off a big surprise as well on Sunday, winning the battle of New York by beating the Bills, who came into the game with only one loss and a lot of momentum, along with a top-10 ranking. The game was close throughout, with the Giants pulling through in the final minutes with a field goal to avoid overtime and put them at the top of their division for now.
The Cleveland Browns moved up a few spots this week despite losing again, but this time they looked a lot better in failing. They fell behind early in Oakland, then made a furious fourth quarter comeback that nearly went all the way after they recovered an onside kick with one minute left. They have a winnable game next week against Seattle before travelling to San Francisco the week after to face the top-ranked Niners.
Prediction Results
NFL: 10-3 (.769) 58-32 overall (.644)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 20-38 overall (.345)
Sunday, October 16, 2011
College Football Rankings - 16 Oct
The initial BCS rankings have been released, and they contain very few surprises, with every undefeated team but Houston sitting among the top 11, and the SEC occupying the top 2 spots, but my version of the rankings has just a few important differences. Two-thirds of the BCS formula is made up of poll data, which is pure opinion, and the other third is made up of the average of several computer ranking systems, which weigh the facts. Unfortunately, in order to be a part of the BCS formula, these computers are not allowed to take scoring into account, so the overall result of the ranking is flawed. For example, earlier this season, Nebraska beat Fresno State by 13 points at home. One month later, that same Fresno State team lost at home to Boise State by 50 points. By any logical measure, Boise State is superior to Nebraska when you are only considering these two game results, but according to BCS rules, they are exactly equal, because both beat the same team, and it doesn't matter by how much. This allows teams from power conferences to move up in the rankings by playing weak nonconference opponents, which increases the average number of wins in the conference, which is basically the measuring stick used by the BCS, whether they know it or not. My rankings eliminate any personal bias by including only facts, letting the numbers weigh for themselves which opponents are truly tougher. The resulting rating measures how many points the average team would be expected to lose to them by on a neutral field. Here are my latest rankings, with current ranking followed by previous ranking, team name, overall record, rating, AP rank, and BCS rank.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (AP) (BCS)
1. (4) Stanford (6-0) -32.80 (7) (8)
2. (1) Boise State (6-0) -32.75 (5) (5)
3. (6) LSU (7-0) -32.65 (1) (1)
4. (3) Oklahoma (6-0) -31.81 (3) (3)
5. (7) Alabama (7-0) -30.71 (2) (2)
6. (5) Wisconsin (6-0) -29.92 (4) (6)
7. (2) Oregon (5-1) -29.09 (9) (10)
8. (8) Oklahoma State (6-0) -24.23 (6) (4)
9. (14) Texas A&M (4-2) -20.79 (17) (17)
10. (11) Arizona State (5-2) -18.53 (24) (NR)
11. (17) Houston (6-0) -17.52 (21) (19)
12. (16) Michigan State (5-1) -16.54 (15) (16)
13. (18) Notre Dame (4-2) -16.20 (27) (NR)
14. (NR) Florida State (3-3) -15.95 (NR) (NR)
15. (9) Michigan (6-1) -15.82 (18) (18)
16. (24) Kansas State (6-0) -15.55 (12) (11)
17. (25) Missouri (3-3) -15.29 (NR) (NR)
18. (21) West Virginia (5-1) -14.96 (11) (15)
19. (NR) TCU (4-2) -14.62 (NR) (NR)
20. (10) Temple (5-2) -14.21 (NR) (NR)
21. (22) Arkansas (5-1) -14.13 (10) (9)
22. (NR) Clemson (7-0) -13.77 (8) (7)
23. (NR) Utah (3-3) -13.40 (NR) (NR)
24. (NR) Southern Miss (5-1) -12.77 (32) (NR)
25. (12) Washington (5-1) -12.55 (22) (25)
Dropped Out
(13) Toledo (4-3) -11.13 (NR) (NR)
(15) Georgia (5-2) -10.94 (24) (NR)
(20) Nevada (3-3) -5.05 (NR) (NR)
(23) Rutgers (5-1) -4.33 (35) (NR)
(19) California (3-3) -0.02 (NR) (NR)
Ranked Teams By Conference
Pac 12 - 5
Big 12 - 5
SEC - 3
Big 10 - 3
MWC - 2
CUSA - 2
ACC - 2
Ind - 1
Big East - 1
MAC - 1
The top four teams are all within one point of each other, meaning that any bowl matchup between two of them would be considered a toss-up. The top 7 have all set themselves apart from the rest of the field as the true title contenders, but the top 11 all have reasonable chances to move up with the right set of upsets helping them out.
There are a number of teams ranked in the BCS standings that do not appear in my top 25, but they are within the top 35 in my rankings. The three highest-ranked of those teams are Virginia Tech, Nebraska, and South Carolina, each of which has some fatal flaws. Virginia Tech has a terrible strength of schedule, with their only decent opponent being Clemson, who beat them 23-3. Nebraska has been winning close games over average teams, but was blown out by Wisconsin, while South Carolina blew the momentum they had earned by killing Kentucky in a close win over Mississippi State. The best teams are consistent every week, regardless of the opponent.
Texas A&M was one of the hottest teams this past weekend, with a tough game against Baylor, who was ranked ahead of them in the polls, but they nearly doubled the Bears' output on Saturday and partially atoned for the large leads they blew against Oklahoma State and Arkansas. With two undefeated teams on the schedule next month, they have a great chance to create some sway with the voters and the computers that control the BCS.
The most unimpressive of the high-ranked teams this weekend was Oregon, who needed a little help from the referees' whistles to shift the momentum away from the visiting Sun Devils on Saturday night before winning a game that was much closer than expected. The Ducks are still in the hunt for the title, however, when you consider that their only loss is to LSU, which is #1 in the AP and BCS rankings this week.
Prediction Results
College Football: 18-7 (.720) 129-46 overall (.737)
Upsets: 3-5 (.375) 19-38 overall (.333)
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (AP) (BCS)
1. (4) Stanford (6-0) -32.80 (7) (8)
2. (1) Boise State (6-0) -32.75 (5) (5)
3. (6) LSU (7-0) -32.65 (1) (1)
4. (3) Oklahoma (6-0) -31.81 (3) (3)
5. (7) Alabama (7-0) -30.71 (2) (2)
6. (5) Wisconsin (6-0) -29.92 (4) (6)
7. (2) Oregon (5-1) -29.09 (9) (10)
8. (8) Oklahoma State (6-0) -24.23 (6) (4)
9. (14) Texas A&M (4-2) -20.79 (17) (17)
10. (11) Arizona State (5-2) -18.53 (24) (NR)
11. (17) Houston (6-0) -17.52 (21) (19)
12. (16) Michigan State (5-1) -16.54 (15) (16)
13. (18) Notre Dame (4-2) -16.20 (27) (NR)
14. (NR) Florida State (3-3) -15.95 (NR) (NR)
15. (9) Michigan (6-1) -15.82 (18) (18)
16. (24) Kansas State (6-0) -15.55 (12) (11)
17. (25) Missouri (3-3) -15.29 (NR) (NR)
18. (21) West Virginia (5-1) -14.96 (11) (15)
19. (NR) TCU (4-2) -14.62 (NR) (NR)
20. (10) Temple (5-2) -14.21 (NR) (NR)
21. (22) Arkansas (5-1) -14.13 (10) (9)
22. (NR) Clemson (7-0) -13.77 (8) (7)
23. (NR) Utah (3-3) -13.40 (NR) (NR)
24. (NR) Southern Miss (5-1) -12.77 (32) (NR)
25. (12) Washington (5-1) -12.55 (22) (25)
Dropped Out
(13) Toledo (4-3) -11.13 (NR) (NR)
(15) Georgia (5-2) -10.94 (24) (NR)
(20) Nevada (3-3) -5.05 (NR) (NR)
(23) Rutgers (5-1) -4.33 (35) (NR)
(19) California (3-3) -0.02 (NR) (NR)
Ranked Teams By Conference
Pac 12 - 5
Big 12 - 5
SEC - 3
Big 10 - 3
MWC - 2
CUSA - 2
ACC - 2
Ind - 1
Big East - 1
MAC - 1
The top four teams are all within one point of each other, meaning that any bowl matchup between two of them would be considered a toss-up. The top 7 have all set themselves apart from the rest of the field as the true title contenders, but the top 11 all have reasonable chances to move up with the right set of upsets helping them out.
There are a number of teams ranked in the BCS standings that do not appear in my top 25, but they are within the top 35 in my rankings. The three highest-ranked of those teams are Virginia Tech, Nebraska, and South Carolina, each of which has some fatal flaws. Virginia Tech has a terrible strength of schedule, with their only decent opponent being Clemson, who beat them 23-3. Nebraska has been winning close games over average teams, but was blown out by Wisconsin, while South Carolina blew the momentum they had earned by killing Kentucky in a close win over Mississippi State. The best teams are consistent every week, regardless of the opponent.
Texas A&M was one of the hottest teams this past weekend, with a tough game against Baylor, who was ranked ahead of them in the polls, but they nearly doubled the Bears' output on Saturday and partially atoned for the large leads they blew against Oklahoma State and Arkansas. With two undefeated teams on the schedule next month, they have a great chance to create some sway with the voters and the computers that control the BCS.
The most unimpressive of the high-ranked teams this weekend was Oregon, who needed a little help from the referees' whistles to shift the momentum away from the visiting Sun Devils on Saturday night before winning a game that was much closer than expected. The Ducks are still in the hunt for the title, however, when you consider that their only loss is to LSU, which is #1 in the AP and BCS rankings this week.
Prediction Results
College Football: 18-7 (.720) 129-46 overall (.737)
Upsets: 3-5 (.375) 19-38 overall (.333)
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Football Predictions - 13-17 Oct
The majority of nationally ranked teams are hitting the road this weekend, which leaves quite a few of them open to upsets. Only a few of them are very likely to be upset, but many games should be close and very entertaining. Here are my predictions for each of this weekend's important college football games and all of the NFL games.
Thursday
USC at California - Golden Bears by 22
Saturday
Toledo at Bowling Green - Rockets by 23
(11) Michigan at (23) Michigan State - Spartans by 3
(20) Baylor at (21) Texas A&M - Aggies by 13
Indiana at (4) Wisconsin - Badgers by 58
(15) South Carolina at Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 4
Buffalo at Temple - Owls by 36
Navy at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 29
Iowa State at Missouri - Tigers by 24
Colorado at Washington - Huskies by 24
(6) Oklahoma State at (22) Texas - Cowboys by 11
(12) Georgia Tech at Virginia - Yellowjackets by 15
Ohio State at (16) Illinois - Illini by 3
(1) LSU at Tennessee - Tigers by 15
New Mexico at Nevada - Wolfpack by 53
(5) Boise State at Colorado State - Broncos by 44
(2) Alabama at Mississippi - Crimson Tide by 26
(19) Virginia Tech at Wake Forest - Demon Deacons by 9
Florida at (24) Auburn - Gators by 2
(8) Clemson at Maryland - Tigers by 2
(17) Kansas State at Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 2
Georgia at Vanderbilt - Bulldogs by 8
(7) Stanford at Washington State - Cardinal by 17
(3) Oklahoma at Kansas - Sooners by 43
(18) Arizona State at (9) Oregon - Ducks by 24
Sunday
Carolina at Atlanta - Falcons by 2
Buffalo at NY Giants - Bills by 13
Indianapolis at Cincinnati - Bengals by 23
San Francisco at Detroit - 49ers by 1
Saint Louis at Green Bay - Packers by 31
Philadelphia at Washington - Redskins by 1
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh - Steelers by 18
Cleveland at Oakland - Raiders by 25
Houston at Baltimore - Ravens by 15
Dallas at New England - Patriots by 10
New Orleans at Tampa Bay - Saints by 15
Minnesota at Chicago - Bears by 6
Monday
Miami at NY Jets - Jets by 18
Thursday
USC at California - Golden Bears by 22
Saturday
Toledo at Bowling Green - Rockets by 23
(11) Michigan at (23) Michigan State - Spartans by 3
(20) Baylor at (21) Texas A&M - Aggies by 13
Indiana at (4) Wisconsin - Badgers by 58
(15) South Carolina at Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 4
Buffalo at Temple - Owls by 36
Navy at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 29
Iowa State at Missouri - Tigers by 24
Colorado at Washington - Huskies by 24
(6) Oklahoma State at (22) Texas - Cowboys by 11
(12) Georgia Tech at Virginia - Yellowjackets by 15
Ohio State at (16) Illinois - Illini by 3
(1) LSU at Tennessee - Tigers by 15
New Mexico at Nevada - Wolfpack by 53
(5) Boise State at Colorado State - Broncos by 44
(2) Alabama at Mississippi - Crimson Tide by 26
(19) Virginia Tech at Wake Forest - Demon Deacons by 9
Florida at (24) Auburn - Gators by 2
(8) Clemson at Maryland - Tigers by 2
(17) Kansas State at Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 2
Georgia at Vanderbilt - Bulldogs by 8
(7) Stanford at Washington State - Cardinal by 17
(3) Oklahoma at Kansas - Sooners by 43
(18) Arizona State at (9) Oregon - Ducks by 24
Sunday
Carolina at Atlanta - Falcons by 2
Buffalo at NY Giants - Bills by 13
Indianapolis at Cincinnati - Bengals by 23
San Francisco at Detroit - 49ers by 1
Saint Louis at Green Bay - Packers by 31
Philadelphia at Washington - Redskins by 1
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh - Steelers by 18
Cleveland at Oakland - Raiders by 25
Houston at Baltimore - Ravens by 15
Dallas at New England - Patriots by 10
New Orleans at Tampa Bay - Saints by 15
Minnesota at Chicago - Bears by 6
Monday
Miami at NY Jets - Jets by 18
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
NFL Rankings - 11 Oct
The season is heating up, and already one team has taken a two-game lead in its division, while several other divisions feature ties atop the standings. Green Bay has now won 11 straight contests, and their division rivals over in Detroit have won 9 in a row, which is more than they had won in the previous three seasons combined. The Eagles, Jets, Bears, Falcons, and Colts all finished the week with losing records, even though all five entered the season with playoff aspirations. Here are the current team rankings, with this week's ranking followed by team name, overall record, this week's result, previous opponents' weekly record, and previous ranking.
TW. Team (Record) Result (PrevOppRec) (LW)
1. Baltimore (3-1) Bye(1-2) (2)
2. San Francisco (4-1) W (2-1) (14)
3. New England (4-1) W (3-0) (4)
4. Green Bay (5-0) W (1-3) (1)
5. Detroit (5-0) W (1-2) (6)
6. Buffalo (4-1) W (4-0) (7)
7. Oakland (3-2) W (2-2) (10)
8. New Orleans (4-1) W (1-3) (3)
9. NY Jets (2-3) L (1-1) (9)
10. Dallas (2-2) Bye (2-1) (12)
11. Pittsburgh (3-2) W (1-2) (19)
12. Houston (3-2) L (3-0) (8)
13. Cincinnati (3-2) W (2-1) (13)
14. Chicago (2-3) L (2-2) (11)
15. San Diego (4-1) W (3-0) (23)
16. Philadelphia (1-4) L (1-2) (21)
17. Tennessee (3-2) L (0-2) (5)
18. Minnesota (1-4) W (3-1) (28)
19. Washington (3-1) Bye (0-2) (16)
20. Carolina (1-4) L (1-3) (17)
21. Seattle (2-3) W (2-2) (29)
22. Denver (1-4) L (3-1) (18)
23. Atlanta (2-3) L (1-3) (25)
24. NY Giants (3-2) L (0-2) (15)
25. Miami (0-4) Bye (2-1) (26)
26. Jacksonville (1-4) L (1-3) (22)
27. Arizona (1-4) L (1-2) (20)
28. Tampa Bay (3-2) L (2-2) (24)
29. Kansas City (2-3) W (4-0) (32)
30. Cleveland (2-2) Bye (1-2) (27)
31. Saint Louis (0-4) Bye (0-2) (31)
32. Indianapolis (0-5) L (1-2) (30)
The hottest team of the fifth weekend was the San Francisco 49ers, which welcomed Tampa Bay into town pretty rudely by beating up on them 48-3, which makes it seem quite obvious that they will be the team representing the NFC West in the playoffs this season. They face their toughest test of the season so far this week when they go to Detroit to face the undefeated Lions in the best game of the week.
The Minnesota Vikings also turned up the heat this week, scoring 28 points in the first quarter against Arizona, which included 3 touchdowns by Adrian Peterson. They ended up holding the Cardinals to only 10 points in the entire game, and the winning may not be over, with a visit to struggling Chicago this weekend.
Before I award the NFC West to San Francisco prematurely, the Seattle Seahawks may have something to say about it also. They have won two of three games and they have two straight games against the Ohio teams coming up, which gives them a good chance to keep pace with the Niners and keep the playoff race going.
Prediction Results
NFL: 7-6 (.538) 48-29 overall (.623)
Upsets: 0-2 (.000) 16-33 overall (.327)
TW. Team (Record) Result (PrevOppRec) (LW)
1. Baltimore (3-1) Bye(1-2) (2)
2. San Francisco (4-1) W (2-1) (14)
3. New England (4-1) W (3-0) (4)
4. Green Bay (5-0) W (1-3) (1)
5. Detroit (5-0) W (1-2) (6)
6. Buffalo (4-1) W (4-0) (7)
7. Oakland (3-2) W (2-2) (10)
8. New Orleans (4-1) W (1-3) (3)
9. NY Jets (2-3) L (1-1) (9)
10. Dallas (2-2) Bye (2-1) (12)
11. Pittsburgh (3-2) W (1-2) (19)
12. Houston (3-2) L (3-0) (8)
13. Cincinnati (3-2) W (2-1) (13)
14. Chicago (2-3) L (2-2) (11)
15. San Diego (4-1) W (3-0) (23)
16. Philadelphia (1-4) L (1-2) (21)
17. Tennessee (3-2) L (0-2) (5)
18. Minnesota (1-4) W (3-1) (28)
19. Washington (3-1) Bye (0-2) (16)
20. Carolina (1-4) L (1-3) (17)
21. Seattle (2-3) W (2-2) (29)
22. Denver (1-4) L (3-1) (18)
23. Atlanta (2-3) L (1-3) (25)
24. NY Giants (3-2) L (0-2) (15)
25. Miami (0-4) Bye (2-1) (26)
26. Jacksonville (1-4) L (1-3) (22)
27. Arizona (1-4) L (1-2) (20)
28. Tampa Bay (3-2) L (2-2) (24)
29. Kansas City (2-3) W (4-0) (32)
30. Cleveland (2-2) Bye (1-2) (27)
31. Saint Louis (0-4) Bye (0-2) (31)
32. Indianapolis (0-5) L (1-2) (30)
The hottest team of the fifth weekend was the San Francisco 49ers, which welcomed Tampa Bay into town pretty rudely by beating up on them 48-3, which makes it seem quite obvious that they will be the team representing the NFC West in the playoffs this season. They face their toughest test of the season so far this week when they go to Detroit to face the undefeated Lions in the best game of the week.
The Minnesota Vikings also turned up the heat this week, scoring 28 points in the first quarter against Arizona, which included 3 touchdowns by Adrian Peterson. They ended up holding the Cardinals to only 10 points in the entire game, and the winning may not be over, with a visit to struggling Chicago this weekend.
Before I award the NFC West to San Francisco prematurely, the Seattle Seahawks may have something to say about it also. They have won two of three games and they have two straight games against the Ohio teams coming up, which gives them a good chance to keep pace with the Niners and keep the playoff race going.
Prediction Results
NFL: 7-6 (.538) 48-29 overall (.623)
Upsets: 0-2 (.000) 16-33 overall (.327)
Sunday, October 9, 2011
College Football Rankings - 9 Oct
Of the 15 teams that started the week without a loss, only two (Texas and Texas Tech) had their perfect runs end prematurely this weekend, both with losses to teams that are currently ranked. Of the other 13, 12 came out as winners, while one (Wisconsin) took the weekend off. Even with very few upsets, there was a lot of movement in my rankings, owing to the big shifts in strength of schedule some teams experienced. This week, I have added a new section to my rankings, which tells you how a team's previous opponents fared this week, in record as well as in average point differential. Each team's current ranking is followed by its previous ranking, team name, overall record, previous opponents' weekend record and point differential, and current AP ranking. Gaps between teams represent teams in different tiers of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) OppRec/OppPtDif (AP)
1. (8) Boise State (5-0) 3-0/+27.7 (5)
2. (3) Oregon (4-1) 2-1/+19.0 (9)
3. (6) Oklahoma (5-0) 0-3/-18.0 (3)
4. (1) Stanford (5-0) 1-2/-6.7 (7)
5. (2) Wisconsin (5-0) 3-1/+2.5 (4)
6. (4) LSU (6-0) 3-1/+5.5 (1)
7. (5) Alabama (6-0) 3-2/-2.4 (2)
8. (7) Oklahoma State (5-0) 2-1/+3.0 (6)
9. (9) Michigan (6-0) 2-3/-5.8 (11)
10. (NR) Temple (4-2) 2-2/+8.3 (NR)
11. (NR) Arizona State (5-1) 2-1/+8.0 (18)
12. (21) Washington (4-1) 1-2/-14.0 (27)
13. (NR) Toledo (3-3) 3-1/+22.0 (NR)
14. (NR) Texas A&M (3-2) 2-1/+17.7 (21)
15. (NR) Georgia (4-2) 3-0/+39.7 (29)
16. (15) Michigan State (4-1) 1-3/-2.3 (23)
17. (NR) Houston (6-0) 3-0/+10.0 (25)
18. (11) Notre Dame (4-2) 2-1/+7.3 (28)
19. (17) California (3-2) 0-2/-45.5 (NR)
20. (NR) Nevada (2-3) 2-2/+15.0 (NR)
21. (NR) West Virginia (5-1) 1-3/-2.3 (13)
22. (NR) Arkansas (5-1) 2-1/+8.3 (10)
23. (NR) Rutgers (4-1) 2-1/+3.0 (NR)
24. (22) Kansas State (5-0) 1-2/-3.3 (17)
25. (NR) Missouri (2-3) 3-0/+22.0 (NR)
Dropped Out
(10) Washington State (3-2) 0-3/-30.3 (NR)
(12) Tennessee (3-2) 1-1/-14.5 (NR)
(13) Pittsburgh (3-3) 2-1/+5.7 (NR)
(14) Utah (2-3) 1-0/+13.0 (NR)
(16) Texas (4-1) 3-1/+3.8 (22)
(18) Florida (4-2) 1-4/-11.4 (26)
(19) San Diego State (3-2) 1-2/+2.7 (NR)
(20) Nebraska (5-1) 0-2/-47.0 (14)
(23) Georgia Tech (6-0) 2-2/-6.0 (12)
(24) Florida State (2-3) 2-1/+18.3 (NR)
(25) South Florida (4-1) 1-2/-13.3 (33)
Ranked Teams By Conference
Pac 12 - 5
Big 12 - 5
SEC - 4
Big 10 - 3
MAC - 2
Big East - 2
MWC - 1
CUSA - 1
Ind - 1
WAC - 1
ACC - 0
Sun Belt - 0
Boise State took a huge leap to the top spot this week behind the strength of a 50-point road win, which was coupled with the results of their previous opponents' games, with Georgia, Toledo, and Nevada all winning big over the weekend. The Broncos' strength of schedule will most likely take a hit over the next three weeks, with Colorado State, Air Force, and UNLV coming up, none of which should present any difficulty for the nation's best team. To maintain their ranking, they'll need Georgia and Toledo to keep winning.
Even with a loss, Oregon has jumped to the #2 slot, and they're riding the success of LSU and Nevada over the weekend, who combined to win their games by a combined total of 78-11. Oregon's win over Cal was more impressive than people think, and I believe the Golden Bears were the best opponent any top ten team faced this weekend.
Oklahoma also made a move this week with a huge statement victory over Texas, who was also undefeated coming into the game, but the Longhorns were no match for the high-octane Sooners. Oklahoma was prevented from reaching the top spot by the weakness of their early-season schedule, which featured Ball State, Missouri, and Florida State, each of which currently has a losing record and was overrated entering the season.
Stanford fell three spots despite a 48-7 win over Colorado, but the Buffaloes have not won a road game in 4 years, so a visit to one of the best teams in the country was not likely to end that streak. None of their previous opponents has done anything to prove that the Cardinal's impressive overall margin of victory so far is not just a product of their schedule, but games against the Washington schools should show what happens when they finally face a real team.
LSU and Alabama both slipped a couple of spots after South Carolina manhandled Kentucky by more than LSU did, and LSU beat Florida by more than Alabama did. The domino effect knocked them behind Wisconsin, whose early-season opponents held their own this week, although they were certainly not dominant.
Nebraska dropped from my rankings despite an amazing come-from-behind victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes, but Nebraska had won somewhat close games over Fresno State and Wyoming earlier in the season, and both of those teams were beaten by more than 40 points this weekend, with Boise State and Utah State inflicting the damage.
Prediction Results
College Football: 18-8 (.692) 111-39 overall (.740)
Upsets: 1-4 (.200) 16-31 overall (.340)
TW. (LW) Team (Record) OppRec/OppPtDif (AP)
1. (8) Boise State (5-0) 3-0/+27.7 (5)
2. (3) Oregon (4-1) 2-1/+19.0 (9)
3. (6) Oklahoma (5-0) 0-3/-18.0 (3)
4. (1) Stanford (5-0) 1-2/-6.7 (7)
5. (2) Wisconsin (5-0) 3-1/+2.5 (4)
6. (4) LSU (6-0) 3-1/+5.5 (1)
7. (5) Alabama (6-0) 3-2/-2.4 (2)
8. (7) Oklahoma State (5-0) 2-1/+3.0 (6)
9. (9) Michigan (6-0) 2-3/-5.8 (11)
10. (NR) Temple (4-2) 2-2/+8.3 (NR)
11. (NR) Arizona State (5-1) 2-1/+8.0 (18)
12. (21) Washington (4-1) 1-2/-14.0 (27)
13. (NR) Toledo (3-3) 3-1/+22.0 (NR)
14. (NR) Texas A&M (3-2) 2-1/+17.7 (21)
15. (NR) Georgia (4-2) 3-0/+39.7 (29)
16. (15) Michigan State (4-1) 1-3/-2.3 (23)
17. (NR) Houston (6-0) 3-0/+10.0 (25)
18. (11) Notre Dame (4-2) 2-1/+7.3 (28)
19. (17) California (3-2) 0-2/-45.5 (NR)
20. (NR) Nevada (2-3) 2-2/+15.0 (NR)
21. (NR) West Virginia (5-1) 1-3/-2.3 (13)
22. (NR) Arkansas (5-1) 2-1/+8.3 (10)
23. (NR) Rutgers (4-1) 2-1/+3.0 (NR)
24. (22) Kansas State (5-0) 1-2/-3.3 (17)
25. (NR) Missouri (2-3) 3-0/+22.0 (NR)
Dropped Out
(10) Washington State (3-2) 0-3/-30.3 (NR)
(12) Tennessee (3-2) 1-1/-14.5 (NR)
(13) Pittsburgh (3-3) 2-1/+5.7 (NR)
(14) Utah (2-3) 1-0/+13.0 (NR)
(16) Texas (4-1) 3-1/+3.8 (22)
(18) Florida (4-2) 1-4/-11.4 (26)
(19) San Diego State (3-2) 1-2/+2.7 (NR)
(20) Nebraska (5-1) 0-2/-47.0 (14)
(23) Georgia Tech (6-0) 2-2/-6.0 (12)
(24) Florida State (2-3) 2-1/+18.3 (NR)
(25) South Florida (4-1) 1-2/-13.3 (33)
Ranked Teams By Conference
Pac 12 - 5
Big 12 - 5
SEC - 4
Big 10 - 3
MAC - 2
Big East - 2
MWC - 1
CUSA - 1
Ind - 1
WAC - 1
ACC - 0
Sun Belt - 0
Boise State took a huge leap to the top spot this week behind the strength of a 50-point road win, which was coupled with the results of their previous opponents' games, with Georgia, Toledo, and Nevada all winning big over the weekend. The Broncos' strength of schedule will most likely take a hit over the next three weeks, with Colorado State, Air Force, and UNLV coming up, none of which should present any difficulty for the nation's best team. To maintain their ranking, they'll need Georgia and Toledo to keep winning.
Even with a loss, Oregon has jumped to the #2 slot, and they're riding the success of LSU and Nevada over the weekend, who combined to win their games by a combined total of 78-11. Oregon's win over Cal was more impressive than people think, and I believe the Golden Bears were the best opponent any top ten team faced this weekend.
Oklahoma also made a move this week with a huge statement victory over Texas, who was also undefeated coming into the game, but the Longhorns were no match for the high-octane Sooners. Oklahoma was prevented from reaching the top spot by the weakness of their early-season schedule, which featured Ball State, Missouri, and Florida State, each of which currently has a losing record and was overrated entering the season.
Stanford fell three spots despite a 48-7 win over Colorado, but the Buffaloes have not won a road game in 4 years, so a visit to one of the best teams in the country was not likely to end that streak. None of their previous opponents has done anything to prove that the Cardinal's impressive overall margin of victory so far is not just a product of their schedule, but games against the Washington schools should show what happens when they finally face a real team.
LSU and Alabama both slipped a couple of spots after South Carolina manhandled Kentucky by more than LSU did, and LSU beat Florida by more than Alabama did. The domino effect knocked them behind Wisconsin, whose early-season opponents held their own this week, although they were certainly not dominant.
Nebraska dropped from my rankings despite an amazing come-from-behind victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes, but Nebraska had won somewhat close games over Fresno State and Wyoming earlier in the season, and both of those teams were beaten by more than 40 points this weekend, with Boise State and Utah State inflicting the damage.
Prediction Results
College Football: 18-8 (.692) 111-39 overall (.740)
Upsets: 1-4 (.200) 16-31 overall (.340)
Friday, October 7, 2011
Top 100 NBA Players: #26
Moses Malone
(Kalb: #14, Simmons: #12, BBR: #15)
Moses Malone is the greatest offensive rebounder in the history of the NBA, and was a trailblazer for many of today's players, becoming the first player to successfully jump directly from high school to the pros. He also had an incredibly long career, playing 19 NBA seasons and 21 professional seasons overall.
As I stated above, Malone was easily the best offensive rebounder to ever set foot on a basketball court. He has the three highest single season totals of all time, and is also the owner of 6 of the top 10 offensive rebounding seasons. He led the league in offensive rebounds in each of his first 7 seasons, and in total rebounding six times in his career. In 1978-79, he averaged 7.2 offensive rebounds per game, and 17.6 overall. He was truly a monster on the boards.
Malone was among the top 5 players in the league for five straight seasons early in his career, from 1978-1983. During that stretch, he was awarded the MVP award three times, but he may not have been the best player during those seasons. I'm going to break down the best players from four of those seasons and show my pick for each season's MVP
Gervin (1979) - 29.6 pts, 5.0 reb, 2.7 ast, 1.7 stl, 1.1 blk, .541 FG%, .826 FT%, .585 Win%
Malone (1979) - 24.8 pts, 17.6 reb, 1.8 ast, 1.0 stl, 1.5 blk, .540 FG%, .739 FT%, .573 Win%
Gervin led the league in scoring, while Malone led the league in rebounding. Gervin was the better shooter, despite being the smaller player, and his team finished ahead of Malone's in the overall standings. They also advanced farther in the playoffs than the Rockets, all of which make a strong case for Gervin deserving that season's MVP.
Erving (1981) - 24.6 pts, 8.0 reb, 4.4 ast, 2.1 stl, 1.8 blk, .521 FG%, .787 FT%, .756 Win%
Malone (1981) - 27.8 pts, 14.8 reb, 1.8 ast, 1.0 stl, 1.9 blk, .522 FG%, .757 FT%, .488 Win%
Statistically, Malone was a much better player, but Erving had the advantage of playing for the team with the best record, which is probably why he won the MVP, but in retrospect, the 76ers fell in the Eastern Conference Finals, while Malone led the Rockets all the way to the NBA Finals, where they fell to Boston in 6 games. This one's not completely clear-cut, but I believe Malone was the better player that season.
Johnson (1982) - 18.6 pts, 9.6 reb, 9.5 ast, 2.7 stl, 0.4 blk, .537 FG%, .760 FT%, .695 Win%
Malone (1982) - 31.1 pts, 14.7 reb, 1.8 ast, 0.9 stl, 1.5 blk, .519 FG%, .762 FT%, .561 Win%
Malone had an amazing season, leading the league in rebounding again while averaging over 30 points for the only time in his career, but Magic came closer to a triple-double average than anybody since Oscar Robertson and led Los Angeles to the best record in the West and eventually an NBA Championship, while Houston lost in the first round. This should have been Johnson's first MVP.
Johnson (1983) - 16.8 pts, 8.6 reb, 10.5 ast, 2.2 stl, 0.6 blk, .548 FG%, .800 FT%, .707 Win%
Malone (1983) - 24.5 pts, 15.3 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.1 stl, 2.0 blk, .501 FG%, .761 FT%, .793 Win%
Johnson nearly matched everything he had done the year before, even upping the Lakers' winning percentage and shooting much better than big man Malone, while Moses saw a huge dip in his scoring numbers, which he made up for by winning more games with his new team, the 76ers. The two teams met in the Finals, with Malone's Rockets winning in 4 games, but I still think Magic was slightly better overall, because he could pass the ball and take it away from the other team.
It was during that championship run of 1983 when Moses famously predicted that Philly would sweep through the playoffs in "fo, fo, fo," which they came within one game of accomplishing, losing just once in the second round. Moses ran away with the Finals MVP award and took home his only championship during that season.
You may have noticed that most experts have Malone ranked a bit higher all-time, but there are several reasons to rank him a bit lower. The first is that he really didn't have that much playoff success. He had the one magical and dominant season in 1983, and he took his team to the Finals in 1981, but other than that, he only saw the Conference Finals two other times in 19 seasons. That equals 15 seasons of losing in the first round or missing the playoffs altogether.
Another problem with Malone is that he was traded often during the prime of his career. Usually when one of the best players in the league is traded, it's because there is some sort of problem with the player, and Malone was traded not just once, but 5 times during the best years of his career. In fact, more than half of my top 20 players played for only one team during their prime years. One mark of a truly great player is that he is untradeable.
Moses was also not a great shooter, especially for a big man. His career average was under 50%, which is unacceptable for a center, and he only shot over 50% five times in his 19 seasons. His longevity, durability, and dominance in one category for a long period of time certainly help him out here, but he is not one of history's top 25.
Malone and Wade each have one championship, one Finals MVP, and two Finals appearances in their careers. Malone had a lot fewer injury problems than Wade has had, but Wade was a better all-around player than Malone, who was more of an inside-only star. The thing that keeps Malone ahead was that he was a star player of 14 years, which is longer than Wade has been in the league so far. I'm not sure how much longer he can hold him off, though.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Football Predictions - 6-10 October
Once again there is a major college football game on Thursday night, so I'm posting my picks just in time for the opening kickoff of the Oregon/California game tonight. With 229 games already in the books, the database from which my formula pulls its predictions is getting stronger, and I expect my win percentage to start rising again in the next couple weeks. Here are my picks for all college football games involving a team ranked by myself or the national polls, as well as all of the NFL games, with upset picks in italics.
Thursday
California at (9) Oregon - Ducks by 17
Friday
(5) Boise State at Fresno State - Broncos by 24
Saturday
Maryland at (13) Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 25
(3) Oklahoma at (11) Texas - Sooners by 6
Connecticut at (16) West Virginia - Mountaineers by 13
Kentucky at (18) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 20
(23) Florida State at Wake Forest - Seminoles by 15
(19) Illinois at Indiana - Illini by 7
Boston College at (8) Clemson - Tigers by 38
(17) Florida at (1) LSU - Tigers by 16
Kansas at (6) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 42
Miami at (21) Virginia Tech - Hurricanes by 2
Missouri at (20) Kansas State - Wildcats by 15
(22) Arizona State at Utah - Utes by 14
Air Force at Notre Dame - Irish by 33
Pittsburgh at Rutgers - Panthers by 7
(15) Auburn at (10) Arkansas - Razorbacks by 9
(12) Michigan at Northwestern - Wolverines by 22
Iowa State at (25) Baylor - Bears by 9
Vanderbilt at (2) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 39
(24) Texas A&M at Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 2
Georgia at Tennessee - Volunteers by 17
Colorado at (7) Stanford - Cardinal by 31
Ohio State at (14) Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 11
Washington State at UCLA - Cougars by 13
TCU at San Diego State - Aztecs by 20
Sunday
Philadelphia at Buffalo - Bills by 15
Cincinnati at Jacksonville - Bengals by 5
Tennessee at Pittsburgh - Titans by 7
Kansas City at Indianapolis - Colts by 7
Oakland at Houston - Texans by 5
Arizona at Minnesota - Cardinals by 6
New Orleans at Carolina - Saints by 10
Seattle at NY Giants - Giants by 15
Tampa Bay at San Francisco - 49ers by 11
San Diego at Denver - Broncos by 8
NY Jets at New England - Patriots by 9
Green Bay at Atlanta - Packers by 23
Monday
Chicago at Detroit - Lions by 8
Thursday
California at (9) Oregon - Ducks by 17
Friday
(5) Boise State at Fresno State - Broncos by 24
Saturday
Maryland at (13) Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 25
(3) Oklahoma at (11) Texas - Sooners by 6
Connecticut at (16) West Virginia - Mountaineers by 13
Kentucky at (18) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 20
(23) Florida State at Wake Forest - Seminoles by 15
(19) Illinois at Indiana - Illini by 7
Boston College at (8) Clemson - Tigers by 38
(17) Florida at (1) LSU - Tigers by 16
Kansas at (6) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 42
Miami at (21) Virginia Tech - Hurricanes by 2
Missouri at (20) Kansas State - Wildcats by 15
(22) Arizona State at Utah - Utes by 14
Air Force at Notre Dame - Irish by 33
Pittsburgh at Rutgers - Panthers by 7
(15) Auburn at (10) Arkansas - Razorbacks by 9
(12) Michigan at Northwestern - Wolverines by 22
Iowa State at (25) Baylor - Bears by 9
Vanderbilt at (2) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 39
(24) Texas A&M at Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 2
Georgia at Tennessee - Volunteers by 17
Colorado at (7) Stanford - Cardinal by 31
Ohio State at (14) Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 11
Washington State at UCLA - Cougars by 13
TCU at San Diego State - Aztecs by 20
Sunday
Philadelphia at Buffalo - Bills by 15
Cincinnati at Jacksonville - Bengals by 5
Tennessee at Pittsburgh - Titans by 7
Kansas City at Indianapolis - Colts by 7
Oakland at Houston - Texans by 5
Arizona at Minnesota - Cardinals by 6
New Orleans at Carolina - Saints by 10
Seattle at NY Giants - Giants by 15
Tampa Bay at San Francisco - 49ers by 11
San Diego at Denver - Broncos by 8
NY Jets at New England - Patriots by 9
Green Bay at Atlanta - Packers by 23
Monday
Chicago at Detroit - Lions by 8
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
NFL Rankings - 5 Oct
Another undefeated has gone down, but it wasn't the one I expected. The Green Bay Packers remained unblemished, but their division rivals from Detroit have managed to keep pace with them through 4 games. The Philadelphia Eagles continued their disappointing start to the season, but there are plenty of surprising teams displacing them closer to the top. Here are the rankings through 4 games for every team:
TW - LW - Team - Record
1. (2) Green Bay (4-0)
2. (7) Baltimore (3-1)
3. (5) New Orleans (3-1)
4. (8) New England (3-1)
5. (10) Tennessee (3-1)
6. (9) Detroit (4-0)
7. (4) Buffalo (3-1)
8. (11) Houston (3-1)
9. (3) NY Jets (2-2)
10. (1) Oakland (2-2)
11. (16) Chicago (2-2)
12. (6) Dallas (2-2)
13. (15) Cincinnati (2-2)
14. (13) San Francisco (3-1)
15. (22) NY Giants (3-1)
16. (14) Washington (3-1)
17. (17) Carolina (1-3)
18. (12) Denver (1-3)
19. (21) Pittsburgh (2-2)
20. (18) Arizona (1-3)
21. (29) Philadelphia (1-3)
22. (19) Jacksonville (1-3)
23. (27) San Diego (3-1)
24. (20) Tampa Bay (3-1)
25. (26) Atlanta (2-2)
26. (23) Miami (0-4)
27. (25) Cleveland (2-2)
28. (24) Minnesota (0-4)
29. (28) Seattle (1-3)
30. (30) Indianapolis (0-4)
31. (32) Saint Louis (0-4)
32. (31) Kansas City (1-3)
Saint Louis had a big week despite losing, moving out of the cellar and passing their in-state rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs. The Rams nearly beat the NFC East-leading Washington Redskins on Sunday, and their previous two opponents, the Giants and Ravens, both had huge victories, making the Rams' losses to them look a little better. Don't expect them to end the losing streak this week, since they're visiting the Packers, but I wouldn't rule out a win over Dallas in week 6.
Baltimore beat up on the Jets this weekend, which looks very nice next to their season-opening blowout of the Steelers, and their only loss came on the road at Tennessee, another team with only one loss so far. This is not the purely defense-dominated Baltimore team that we've seen for a decade or more, because they seem to have grown an offense as well, scoring at least 34 points in all 3 of their victories this season.
After a close loss to a very good Buffalo team and a big win over the Jets, it looked like the Raiders were going to put up a fight against New England, especially playing on their home turf in Oakland, but the Patriots never let them really feel like they were in the game, and Oakland has now fallen to 2-2, and nearly left my top 10 after spending a week at #1.
The Jets were looking good after two early home victories, but then they went on the road and had to face some top 10 teams, and the result was back-to-back games where they gave up 34 points and lost by double digits, a pattern which will likely continue this week when they play New England, again on the road. If there was ever a team in need of a victory in the first half of the season, it's this team from New York.
Prediction Results
NFL: 9-7 (.563) 41-23 overall (.641)
Upsets: 0-5 (.000) 15-27 overall (.357)
TW - LW - Team - Record
1. (2) Green Bay (4-0)
2. (7) Baltimore (3-1)
3. (5) New Orleans (3-1)
4. (8) New England (3-1)
5. (10) Tennessee (3-1)
6. (9) Detroit (4-0)
7. (4) Buffalo (3-1)
8. (11) Houston (3-1)
9. (3) NY Jets (2-2)
10. (1) Oakland (2-2)
11. (16) Chicago (2-2)
12. (6) Dallas (2-2)
13. (15) Cincinnati (2-2)
14. (13) San Francisco (3-1)
15. (22) NY Giants (3-1)
16. (14) Washington (3-1)
17. (17) Carolina (1-3)
18. (12) Denver (1-3)
19. (21) Pittsburgh (2-2)
20. (18) Arizona (1-3)
21. (29) Philadelphia (1-3)
22. (19) Jacksonville (1-3)
23. (27) San Diego (3-1)
24. (20) Tampa Bay (3-1)
25. (26) Atlanta (2-2)
26. (23) Miami (0-4)
27. (25) Cleveland (2-2)
28. (24) Minnesota (0-4)
29. (28) Seattle (1-3)
30. (30) Indianapolis (0-4)
31. (32) Saint Louis (0-4)
32. (31) Kansas City (1-3)
Saint Louis had a big week despite losing, moving out of the cellar and passing their in-state rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs. The Rams nearly beat the NFC East-leading Washington Redskins on Sunday, and their previous two opponents, the Giants and Ravens, both had huge victories, making the Rams' losses to them look a little better. Don't expect them to end the losing streak this week, since they're visiting the Packers, but I wouldn't rule out a win over Dallas in week 6.
Baltimore beat up on the Jets this weekend, which looks very nice next to their season-opening blowout of the Steelers, and their only loss came on the road at Tennessee, another team with only one loss so far. This is not the purely defense-dominated Baltimore team that we've seen for a decade or more, because they seem to have grown an offense as well, scoring at least 34 points in all 3 of their victories this season.
After a close loss to a very good Buffalo team and a big win over the Jets, it looked like the Raiders were going to put up a fight against New England, especially playing on their home turf in Oakland, but the Patriots never let them really feel like they were in the game, and Oakland has now fallen to 2-2, and nearly left my top 10 after spending a week at #1.
The Jets were looking good after two early home victories, but then they went on the road and had to face some top 10 teams, and the result was back-to-back games where they gave up 34 points and lost by double digits, a pattern which will likely continue this week when they play New England, again on the road. If there was ever a team in need of a victory in the first half of the season, it's this team from New York.
Prediction Results
NFL: 9-7 (.563) 41-23 overall (.641)
Upsets: 0-5 (.000) 15-27 overall (.357)
Monday, October 3, 2011
College Football Rankings - 3 Oct
Six teams were upset in the wild opening weekend of October, causing some shakeups in the top 25, both nationally and in my personal rankings. The top teams were all able to maintain their direction, and after five weeks there are still 15 undefeated teams out of 120. Most of those teams appear in my rankings, along with several teams who have blemishes but have still proven their talent in their wins. Here are the freshly updated rankings with every game of the season so far taken into account.
TW - LW - Team - Record - AP
1. (1) Stanford (4-0) (7)
2. (5) Wisconsin (5-0) (4)
3. (3) Oregon (3-1) (9)
4. (2) LSU (5-0) (1)
5. (9) Alabama (5-0) (2)
6. (6) Oklahoma (4-0) (3)
7. (4) Oklahoma State (4-0) (6)
8. (8) Boise State (4-0) (5)
9. (16) Michigan (5-0) (12)
10. (11) Washington State (3-1) (NR)
11. (15) Notre Dame (3-2) (30)
12. (NR) Tennessee (3-1) (36)
13. (20) Pittsburgh (3-2) (36)
14. (14) Utah (2-2) (NR)
15. (NR) Michigan State (4-1) (26)
16. (NR) Texas (4-0) (11)
17. (NR) California (3-1) (NR)
18. (NR) Florida (4-1) (17)
19. (21) San Diego State (3-1) (NR)
20. (NR) Nebraska (4-1) (14)
21. (NR) Washington (4-1) (28)
22. (19) Kansas State (4-0) (20)
23. (12) Georgia Tech (5-0) (13)
24. (17) Florida State (2-2) (23)
25. (7) South Florida (4-1) (31)
Dropped Out
(10) Texas A&M (2-2) (24)
(13) Ohio (4-1) (NR)
(18) Iowa State (3-1) (NR)
(22) Iowa (3-1) (NR)
(23) South Carolina (4-1) (18)
(24) Rutgers (3-1) (NR)
(25) Clemson (5-0) (8)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Pac 12 - 6
Big 10 - 4
SEC - 4
Big 12 - 4
MWC - 2
Big East - 2
ACC - 2
Ind - 1
Every team that appears in my rankings this week is a member of one of the 6 AQ conferences or Notre Dame, except for two, Boise State and San Diego State, which belong to the MWC. I believe there is a good case for the BCS to add the Mountain West as the seventh AQ conference this year, especially since they have outperformed the ACC and Big East in recent years.
Washington joined the many Pac 12 teams in my rankings thanks to an unexpected road win over the Utah Utes, who looked like a team that could challenge for the Pac 12 South title, but couldn't stay with the visiting Huskies. Washington's ascension makes the Pac 12 North even tougher to call, although it should still come down to the winner of Oregon-Stanford.
For the second straight week, Alabama beat a ranked opponent by at least 24 points, and this week was even more impressive because they did it on the road. There is sure to be a lot of buzz surrounding their matchup with LSU at the beginning of November, especially if both are still undefeated.
It may seem strange that Clemson dropped from my rankings after winning their third straight upset over a ranked team, especially since they are still undefeated, but all three teams they beat were very overrated at the time. They'll really earn their stripes (pun intended) if they can beat Georgia Tech at the end of this month, since they are the only other ACC team that looks like they are for real.
Texas finally beat an opponent worth noticing this week when they took out the previously undefeated Iowa State Cyclones on the road in a game that wasn't even close. They may not be as good as the Texas teams from a few years ago, but with another McCoy playing quarterback, maybe they are.
After beating up on crappy teams for several weeks, Wisconsin finally played a team that looked like it could put up a challenge, but it turns out that Nebraska was not a match for the Badgers either. They still haven't let an opponent get within 30 points, but they also haven't played a true road game, so we'll see if they can be as good when they travel to face Michigan State and Ohio State later this month.
Prediction Results
College Football: 15-8 (.652) 93-31 overall (.750)
Upsets: 2-3 (.400) 15-22 overall (.405)
TW - LW - Team - Record - AP
1. (1) Stanford (4-0) (7)
2. (5) Wisconsin (5-0) (4)
3. (3) Oregon (3-1) (9)
4. (2) LSU (5-0) (1)
5. (9) Alabama (5-0) (2)
6. (6) Oklahoma (4-0) (3)
7. (4) Oklahoma State (4-0) (6)
8. (8) Boise State (4-0) (5)
9. (16) Michigan (5-0) (12)
10. (11) Washington State (3-1) (NR)
11. (15) Notre Dame (3-2) (30)
12. (NR) Tennessee (3-1) (36)
13. (20) Pittsburgh (3-2) (36)
14. (14) Utah (2-2) (NR)
15. (NR) Michigan State (4-1) (26)
16. (NR) Texas (4-0) (11)
17. (NR) California (3-1) (NR)
18. (NR) Florida (4-1) (17)
19. (21) San Diego State (3-1) (NR)
20. (NR) Nebraska (4-1) (14)
21. (NR) Washington (4-1) (28)
22. (19) Kansas State (4-0) (20)
23. (12) Georgia Tech (5-0) (13)
24. (17) Florida State (2-2) (23)
25. (7) South Florida (4-1) (31)
Dropped Out
(10) Texas A&M (2-2) (24)
(13) Ohio (4-1) (NR)
(18) Iowa State (3-1) (NR)
(22) Iowa (3-1) (NR)
(23) South Carolina (4-1) (18)
(24) Rutgers (3-1) (NR)
(25) Clemson (5-0) (8)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Pac 12 - 6
Big 10 - 4
SEC - 4
Big 12 - 4
MWC - 2
Big East - 2
ACC - 2
Ind - 1
Every team that appears in my rankings this week is a member of one of the 6 AQ conferences or Notre Dame, except for two, Boise State and San Diego State, which belong to the MWC. I believe there is a good case for the BCS to add the Mountain West as the seventh AQ conference this year, especially since they have outperformed the ACC and Big East in recent years.
Washington joined the many Pac 12 teams in my rankings thanks to an unexpected road win over the Utah Utes, who looked like a team that could challenge for the Pac 12 South title, but couldn't stay with the visiting Huskies. Washington's ascension makes the Pac 12 North even tougher to call, although it should still come down to the winner of Oregon-Stanford.
For the second straight week, Alabama beat a ranked opponent by at least 24 points, and this week was even more impressive because they did it on the road. There is sure to be a lot of buzz surrounding their matchup with LSU at the beginning of November, especially if both are still undefeated.
It may seem strange that Clemson dropped from my rankings after winning their third straight upset over a ranked team, especially since they are still undefeated, but all three teams they beat were very overrated at the time. They'll really earn their stripes (pun intended) if they can beat Georgia Tech at the end of this month, since they are the only other ACC team that looks like they are for real.
Texas finally beat an opponent worth noticing this week when they took out the previously undefeated Iowa State Cyclones on the road in a game that wasn't even close. They may not be as good as the Texas teams from a few years ago, but with another McCoy playing quarterback, maybe they are.
After beating up on crappy teams for several weeks, Wisconsin finally played a team that looked like it could put up a challenge, but it turns out that Nebraska was not a match for the Badgers either. They still haven't let an opponent get within 30 points, but they also haven't played a true road game, so we'll see if they can be as good when they travel to face Michigan State and Ohio State later this month.
Prediction Results
College Football: 15-8 (.652) 93-31 overall (.750)
Upsets: 2-3 (.400) 15-22 overall (.405)
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