The initial BCS rankings have been released, and they contain very few surprises, with every undefeated team but Houston sitting among the top 11, and the SEC occupying the top 2 spots, but my version of the rankings has just a few important differences. Two-thirds of the BCS formula is made up of poll data, which is pure opinion, and the other third is made up of the average of several computer ranking systems, which weigh the facts. Unfortunately, in order to be a part of the BCS formula, these computers are not allowed to take scoring into account, so the overall result of the ranking is flawed. For example, earlier this season, Nebraska beat Fresno State by 13 points at home. One month later, that same Fresno State team lost at home to Boise State by 50 points. By any logical measure, Boise State is superior to Nebraska when you are only considering these two game results, but according to BCS rules, they are exactly equal, because both beat the same team, and it doesn't matter by how much. This allows teams from power conferences to move up in the rankings by playing weak nonconference opponents, which increases the average number of wins in the conference, which is basically the measuring stick used by the BCS, whether they know it or not. My rankings eliminate any personal bias by including only facts, letting the numbers weigh for themselves which opponents are truly tougher. The resulting rating measures how many points the average team would be expected to lose to them by on a neutral field. Here are my latest rankings, with current ranking followed by previous ranking, team name, overall record, rating, AP rank, and BCS rank.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (AP) (BCS)
1. (4) Stanford (6-0) -32.80 (7) (8)
2. (1) Boise State (6-0) -32.75 (5) (5)
3. (6) LSU (7-0) -32.65 (1) (1)
4. (3) Oklahoma (6-0) -31.81 (3) (3)
5. (7) Alabama (7-0) -30.71 (2) (2)
6. (5) Wisconsin (6-0) -29.92 (4) (6)
7. (2) Oregon (5-1) -29.09 (9) (10)
8. (8) Oklahoma State (6-0) -24.23 (6) (4)
9. (14) Texas A&M (4-2) -20.79 (17) (17)
10. (11) Arizona State (5-2) -18.53 (24) (NR)
11. (17) Houston (6-0) -17.52 (21) (19)
12. (16) Michigan State (5-1) -16.54 (15) (16)
13. (18) Notre Dame (4-2) -16.20 (27) (NR)
14. (NR) Florida State (3-3) -15.95 (NR) (NR)
15. (9) Michigan (6-1) -15.82 (18) (18)
16. (24) Kansas State (6-0) -15.55 (12) (11)
17. (25) Missouri (3-3) -15.29 (NR) (NR)
18. (21) West Virginia (5-1) -14.96 (11) (15)
19. (NR) TCU (4-2) -14.62 (NR) (NR)
20. (10) Temple (5-2) -14.21 (NR) (NR)
21. (22) Arkansas (5-1) -14.13 (10) (9)
22. (NR) Clemson (7-0) -13.77 (8) (7)
23. (NR) Utah (3-3) -13.40 (NR) (NR)
24. (NR) Southern Miss (5-1) -12.77 (32) (NR)
25. (12) Washington (5-1) -12.55 (22) (25)
Dropped Out
(13) Toledo (4-3) -11.13 (NR) (NR)
(15) Georgia (5-2) -10.94 (24) (NR)
(20) Nevada (3-3) -5.05 (NR) (NR)
(23) Rutgers (5-1) -4.33 (35) (NR)
(19) California (3-3) -0.02 (NR) (NR)
Ranked Teams By Conference
Pac 12 - 5
Big 12 - 5
SEC - 3
Big 10 - 3
MWC - 2
CUSA - 2
ACC - 2
Ind - 1
Big East - 1
MAC - 1
The top four teams are all within one point of each other, meaning that any bowl matchup between two of them would be considered a toss-up. The top 7 have all set themselves apart from the rest of the field as the true title contenders, but the top 11 all have reasonable chances to move up with the right set of upsets helping them out.
There are a number of teams ranked in the BCS standings that do not appear in my top 25, but they are within the top 35 in my rankings. The three highest-ranked of those teams are Virginia Tech, Nebraska, and South Carolina, each of which has some fatal flaws. Virginia Tech has a terrible strength of schedule, with their only decent opponent being Clemson, who beat them 23-3. Nebraska has been winning close games over average teams, but was blown out by Wisconsin, while South Carolina blew the momentum they had earned by killing Kentucky in a close win over Mississippi State. The best teams are consistent every week, regardless of the opponent.
Texas A&M was one of the hottest teams this past weekend, with a tough game against Baylor, who was ranked ahead of them in the polls, but they nearly doubled the Bears' output on Saturday and partially atoned for the large leads they blew against Oklahoma State and Arkansas. With two undefeated teams on the schedule next month, they have a great chance to create some sway with the voters and the computers that control the BCS.
The most unimpressive of the high-ranked teams this weekend was Oregon, who needed a little help from the referees' whistles to shift the momentum away from the visiting Sun Devils on Saturday night before winning a game that was much closer than expected. The Ducks are still in the hunt for the title, however, when you consider that their only loss is to LSU, which is #1 in the AP and BCS rankings this week.
Prediction Results
College Football: 18-7 (.720) 129-46 overall (.737)
Upsets: 3-5 (.375) 19-38 overall (.333)
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