Sunday, October 9, 2011

College Football Rankings - 9 Oct

Of the 15 teams that started the week without a loss, only two (Texas and Texas Tech) had their perfect runs end prematurely this weekend, both with losses to teams that are currently ranked. Of the other 13, 12 came out as winners, while one (Wisconsin) took the weekend off. Even with very few upsets, there was a lot of movement in my rankings, owing to the big shifts in strength of schedule some teams experienced. This week, I have added a new section to my rankings, which tells you how a team's previous opponents fared this week, in record as well as in average point differential. Each team's current ranking is followed by its previous ranking, team name, overall record, previous opponents' weekend record and point differential, and current AP ranking. Gaps between teams represent teams in different tiers of performance.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) OppRec/OppPtDif (AP)
1. (8) Boise State (5-0) 3-0/+27.7 (5)
2. (3) Oregon (4-1) 2-1/+19.0 (9)
3. (6) Oklahoma (5-0) 0-3/-18.0 (3)
4. (1) Stanford (5-0) 1-2/-6.7 (7)
5. (2) Wisconsin (5-0) 3-1/+2.5 (4)
6. (4) LSU (6-0) 3-1/+5.5 (1)
7. (5) Alabama (6-0) 3-2/-2.4 (2)

8. (7) Oklahoma State (5-0) 2-1/+3.0 (6)

9. (9) Michigan (6-0) 2-3/-5.8 (11)
10. (NR) Temple (4-2) 2-2/+8.3 (NR)
11. (NR) Arizona State (5-1) 2-1/+8.0 (18)
12. (21) Washington (4-1) 1-2/-14.0 (27)
13. (NR) Toledo (3-3) 3-1/+22.0 (NR)

14. (NR) Texas A&M (3-2) 2-1/+17.7 (21)
15. (NR) Georgia (4-2) 3-0/+39.7 (29)
16. (15) Michigan State (4-1) 1-3/-2.3 (23)
17. (NR) Houston (6-0) 3-0/+10.0 (25)
18. (11) Notre Dame (4-2) 2-1/+7.3 (28)

19. (17) California (3-2) 0-2/-45.5 (NR)
20. (NR) Nevada (2-3) 2-2/+15.0 (NR)
21. (NR) West Virginia (5-1) 1-3/-2.3 (13)
22. (NR) Arkansas (5-1) 2-1/+8.3 (10)
23. (NR) Rutgers (4-1) 2-1/+3.0 (NR)
24. (22) Kansas State (5-0) 1-2/-3.3 (17)
25. (NR) Missouri (2-3) 3-0/+22.0 (NR)

Dropped Out

(10) Washington State (3-2) 0-3/-30.3 (NR)
(12) Tennessee (3-2) 1-1/-14.5 (NR)
(13) Pittsburgh (3-3) 2-1/+5.7 (NR)
(14) Utah (2-3) 1-0/+13.0 (NR)
(16) Texas (4-1) 3-1/+3.8 (22)
(18) Florida (4-2) 1-4/-11.4 (26)
(19) San Diego State (3-2) 1-2/+2.7 (NR)
(20) Nebraska (5-1) 0-2/-47.0 (14)
(23) Georgia Tech (6-0) 2-2/-6.0 (12)
(24) Florida State (2-3) 2-1/+18.3 (NR)
(25) South Florida (4-1) 1-2/-13.3 (33)

Ranked Teams By Conference

Pac 12 - 5
Big 12 - 5
SEC - 4
Big 10 - 3
MAC - 2
Big East - 2
MWC - 1
CUSA - 1
Ind - 1
WAC - 1
ACC - 0
Sun Belt - 0

Boise State took a huge leap to the top spot this week behind the strength of a 50-point road win, which was coupled with the results of their previous opponents' games, with Georgia, Toledo, and Nevada all winning big over the weekend. The Broncos' strength of schedule will most likely take a hit over the next three weeks, with Colorado State, Air Force, and UNLV coming up, none of which should present any difficulty for the nation's best team. To maintain their ranking, they'll need Georgia and Toledo to keep winning.

Even with a loss, Oregon has jumped to the #2 slot, and they're riding the success of LSU and Nevada over the weekend, who combined to win their games by a combined total of 78-11. Oregon's win over Cal was more impressive than people think, and I believe the Golden Bears were the best opponent any top ten team faced this weekend.

Oklahoma also made a move this week with a huge statement victory over Texas, who was also undefeated coming into the game, but the Longhorns were no match for the high-octane Sooners. Oklahoma was prevented from reaching the top spot by the weakness of their early-season schedule, which featured Ball State, Missouri, and Florida State, each of which currently has a losing record and was overrated entering the season.

Stanford fell three spots despite a 48-7 win over Colorado, but the Buffaloes have not won a road game in 4 years, so a visit to one of the best teams in the country was not likely to end that streak. None of their previous opponents has done anything to prove that the Cardinal's impressive overall margin of victory so far is not just a product of their schedule, but games against the Washington schools should show what happens when they finally face a real team.

LSU and Alabama both slipped a couple of spots after South Carolina manhandled Kentucky by more than LSU did, and LSU beat Florida by more than Alabama did. The domino effect knocked them behind Wisconsin, whose early-season opponents held their own this week, although they were certainly not dominant.

Nebraska dropped from my rankings despite an amazing come-from-behind victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes, but Nebraska had won somewhat close games over Fresno State and Wyoming earlier in the season, and both of those teams were beaten by more than 40 points this weekend, with Boise State and Utah State inflicting the damage.

Prediction Results

College Football: 18-8 (.692) 111-39 overall (.740)
Upsets: 1-4 (.200) 16-31 overall (.340)

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