Sunday, October 23, 2011

College Football Rankings - 23 Oct

Of the 10 teams that were unbeaten entering week 8 of the college football season, 7 of them dominated their opponent this weekend, while one struggled and two went down in close battles. All 8 are among my top 25 teams, but not all are as highly rated as the national polls have them. In fact, this week's new #1 team is not one of the 8 currently undefeated teams. They are a team who is well-acquainted with my top spot, though, as they held it for the majority of last season. Here are the latest rankings, with current ranking followed by previous ranking, team name, overall record, rating, AP rank, and BCS rank.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (AP) (BCS)
1. (7) Oregon (6-1) -34.43 (7) (7)
2. (1) Stanford (7-0) -33.91 (4) (6)

3. (3) LSU (8-0) -30.65 (1) (1)
4. (5) Alabama (8-0) -30.64 (2) (2)

5. (8) Oklahoma State (7-0) -25.77 (3) (3)
6. (2) Boise State (7-0) -25.30 (5) (4)
7. (6) Wisconsin (6-1) -25.03 (12) (15)

8. (4) Oklahoma (6-1) -22.47 (11) (9)

9. (10) Arizona State (5-2) -19.62 (23) (21)

10. (16) Kansas State (7-0) -17.06 (10) (8)
11. (12) Michigan State (6-1) -16.57 (9) (11)
12. (9) Texas A&M (5-2) -15.69 (16) (16)
13. (15) Michigan (6-1) -14.78 (17) (18)
14. (19) TCU (5-2) -14.00 (34) (NR)
15. (11) Houston (7-0) -13.23 (18) (17)

16. (NR) USC (6-1) -11.78 (20) (NR)
17. (NR) Texas Tech (5-2) -11.50 (19) (20)
18. (14) Florida State (4-3) -11.099 (NR) (NR)
19. (NR) Arizona (2-5) -11.098 (NR) (NR)
20. (NR) Georgia (5-2) -10.87 (22) (22)
21. (22) Clemson (8-0) -10.60 (6) (5)
22. (13) Notre Dame (4-3) -10.05 (NR) (NR)
23. (NR) South Carolina (6-1) -9.44 (14) (13)
24. (NR) California (4-3) -9.40 (NR) (NR)
25. (NR) Miami (4-3) -9.35 (33) (NR)

Dropped Out

(17) Missouri (3-4) -8.89 (NR) (NR)
(24) Southern Miss (6-1) -8.39 (27) (NR)
(21) Arkansas (6-1) -7.18 (8) (10)
(20) Temple (5-3) -7.15 (NR) (NR)
(25) Washington (5-2) -6.02 (29) (NR)
(23) Utah (3-4) -5.12 (NR) (NR)
(18) West Virginia (5-2) -2.68 (25) (25)

Ranked Teams by Conference

Pac 12 - 6
Big 12 - 5
SEC - 4
Big 10 - 3
ACC - 3
MWC - 2
CUSA - 1
Ind - 1

Oregon took over the top spot from conference rival Stanford this week, which seems a little strange, since they had similar margins of victory while playing teams of very different calibers. The thing that boosted Oregon was their strength of schedule, which got a huge boost this week from Cal, Arizona, and LSU all winning by 20 or more points, all of which makes Oregon beating them even more impressive. Stanford, meanwhile, saw its previous opponents - Duke, Washington State, and Colorado - get beaten this weekend, a couple of them unexpectedly.

The only remaining game on the calendar for this season that may hold as much intrigue as the Oregon-Stanford on November 12 is the LSU-Alabama game the week before. The two teams are ranked in the top spots in every poll but mine, are blowing out every opponent they face except for Oregon, and they represent the conference with 5 straight BCS championships. Add to that the fact that they are each taking a bye week right before the showdown and you have the recipe for one of the greatest games ever seen.

Boise State tumbled a few spots in the rankings this week despite holding on to their perfect season, because they were the lone remaining unbeaten team that did not win decisively this weekend. They should have had an easy time with Air Force, but instead the game was still within one possession entering the final minutes. They'll need a strong showing against TCU in three weeks to have any chance of entering the title picture this season.

The biggest surprise in my rankings is Arizona, who has already lost 5 games, but when you look at who has beaten them, you see 3 of the top 5 teams among them, along with USC, who only has one loss all season. The combined record of those 4 opponents is 26-2, so it's no surprise that Arizona's record is not very good, but they are still a decent team who can still have a shot at making a bowl game.

Clemson is the lowest-rated of the undefeated teams, falling even below Houston, mostly because the ACC is not as strong as many people assume it is. All three ranked teams it upset last month have proven to be severely overrated, and Georgia Tech has shown for the past two weeks that they are no different, which means Clemson won't be the one exposing them like they did the others.

Prediction Results

Ranked Teams: 18-7 (.720) 147-53 overall (.735)
Unranked Teams: 12-13 (.480)
Upsets: 2-4 (.333) 22-42 overall (.344)

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