NBA Playoff Odds - 2019

The NBA playoffs start in a few hours, so I've broken down all of the possible scenarios to determine which teams have the best chance of winning it all this year. Because playoff experience is a big factor in playoff success, I adjusted each team's rating based on past playoff minutes played by its roster and how much those players contributed to the team's overall production. Here are my odds of each team progressing through each round, as well as my picks for the full playoffs:

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Warriors - 94.7 %
2. Bucks - 94.3%
3. Raptors - 92.6%
4. 76ers - 75.4%
5. Celtics - 65.2%
6. Nuggets - 59.7%
7. Rockets - 59.0%
8. Trail Blazers - 53.3%
9. Thunder - 46.7%
10. Jazz - 41.0%
11. Spurs - 40.3%
12. Pacers - 34.8%
13. Nets - 24.6%
14. Magic - 7.4%
15. Pistons - 5.7%
16. Clippers - 5.3%

The Eastern Conference First Round is not nearly as good as that of the West. Other than the Warriors-Clippers series, anything could happen.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

1. Raptors - 80.1%
2. Bucks - 76.8%
3. Warriors - 68.9%
4. Trail Blazers - 33.1%
5. Thunder - 28.7%
6. Nuggets - 25.6%
7. Rockets - 19.2%
8. Celtics - 16.2%
9. 76ers - 15.2%
10. Spurs - 12.6%
11. Jazz - 11.2%
12. Pacers - 5.7%
13. Magic - 2.7%
14. Nets - 2.0%
15. Pistons - 1.4%
16. Clippers - 0.8%

The Warriors odds are a little lower here because the next two best teams in the West (the Rockets and Jazz) are lined up to face them in the second round.

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 57.4%
2. Bucks - 47.9%
3. Raptors - 41.8%
4. Rockets - 12.6%
5. Trail Blazers - 9.0%
6. Thunder - 7.2%
7. Jazz - 6.7%
8. Celtics - 5.2%
9. Nuggets - 5.1%
10. 76ers - 3.3%
11. Spurs - 1.8%
12. Pacers - 1.3%
13. Magic - 0.3%
14. Clippers - 0.19%
15. Nets - 0.17%
16. Pistons - 0.16%

If the Warriors make it through the second round, they are almost definitely going to make the Finals again, while the Eastern Conference is pretty much a toss-up between the top 2 seeds.

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 35.4%
2. Bucks - 26.1%
3. Raptors - 21.5%
4. Rockets - 5.5%
5. Trail Blazers - 2.9%
6. Jazz - 2.5%
7. Thunder - 2.3%
8. Celtics - 1.3%
9. Nuggets - 1.2%
10. 76ers - 0.6%
11. Spurs - 0.3%
12. Pacers - 0.2%
13. Magic - 0.025%
14. Clippers - 0.023%
15. Pistons - 0.013%
16. Nets - 0.011%

This is really a 3-team race, with the defending champs as the favorite. There are several other teams that should not be counted out, but the bottom 6 or 7 have virtually no chance.

My Picks

First Round

(1) Bucks over (8) Pistons in 4
(2) Raptors over (7) Magic in 4
(3) 76ers over (6) Nets in 7
(4) Celtics over (5) Pacers in 7
(1) Warriors over (8) Clippers in 4
(7) Spurs over (2) Nuggets in 7
(6) Thunder over (3) Trail Blazers in 7
(5) Jazz over (4) Rockets in 7

Second Round

(1) Bucks over (4) Celtics in 6
(2) Raptors over (3) 76ers in 6
(1) Warriors over (5) Jazz in 7
(6) Thunder over (7) Spurs in 7

Conference Finals

(2) Raptors over (1) Bucks in 7
(1) Warriors over (6) Thunder in 6

NBA Finals

(1) Warriors over (2) Raptors in 5

The Raptors will have home court advantage over the Warriors, but they will be no match for the defending champs, who will take home their 4th title in 5 years.