It was an interesting week in college basketball, with nearly every top team going down at some point, which is why there are still no teams that I am moving up to Definitely In status this week. Kentucky came very close this week, and would have been in with a win over Kansas, but they'll probably need to wait just one more week. The same goes for Gonzaga, which hasn't lost and quite possibly won't, but plays in a pretty weak conference. Here is my current breakdown of tournament probability by conference, with odds of winning upcoming games in parentheses, and teams that moved up or down in italics:
American
Solid Chance
Cincinnati - South Florida (99.9%), @ Tulsa (68.3%), Connecticut (94.5%)
SMU - East Carolina (99.6%), @ Tulsa (63.1%)
Still a Chance
Houston - UCF (73.3%)
Memphis - @ South Florida (73.8%), @ UCF (35.4%)
Out
UCF
Atlantic 10
Good Chance
Dayton - @ Fordham (72.3%), Duquesne (97.5%)
VCU - Richmond (81.7%), @ St. Bonaventure (48.3%)
Rhode Island - George Washington (87.5%), @ Davidson (44.6%)
ACC
Probably In
Louisville - NC State (96.0%), @ Boston College (84.2%)
North Carolina - Pittsburgh (97.4%), Notre Dame (79.4%)
Virginia - @ Villanova (34.0%), Virginia Tech (88.6%), @ Syracuse (63.4%)
Duke - @ Notre Dame (42.4%), Pittsburgh (92.3%)
Solid Chance
Florida State - @ Miami (FL) (44.8%)
Notre Dame - Duke (57.6%), @ North Carolina (20.6%)
Good Chance
Virginia Tech - Boston College (87.4%), @ Virginia (11.4%)
Miami (FL) - Florida State (55.2%), @ NC State (48.0%)
Wake Forest - @ Boston College (65.2%), Georgia Tech (80.5%)
Clemson - Georgia Tech (79.8%)
Still a Chance
Syracuse - @ NC State (41.5%), Virginia (36.6%)
Out
NC State, Pittsburgh
Big 12
Probably In
Kansas - Baylor (68.0%), Iowa State (75.8%)
Baylor - @ Kansas (32.0%), Kansas State (76.2%)
West Virginia - @ Iowa State (52.7%), Oklahoma State (83.2%)
Solid Chance
Iowa State - West Virginia (47.3%), @ Kansas (24.2%)
Oklahoma State - @ Oklahoma (54.9%), @ West Virginia (16.8%)
Good Chance
Kansas State - TCU (74.6%), @ Baylor (23.8%)
Still a Chance
Texas Tech - @ Texas (41.1%), Oklahoma (74.0%)
TCU - @ Kansas State (25.4%), Texas (70.8%)
Texas - Texas Tech (58.9%), @ TCU (29.2%)
Out
Oklahoma
Big East
Probably In
Villanova - Virginia (66.0%), @ Providence (66.6%), St. John's (99.9%)
Solid Chance
Butler - Creighton (68.9%)
Creighton - @ Butler (31.1%), Xavier (67.0%)
Xavier - @ St. John's (58.5%), Seton Hall (76.5%), @ Creighton (33.0%)
Good Chance
Marquette - @ St. John's (54.9%), @ DePaul (69.3%)
Still a Chance
Providence - Villanova (33.4%)
Seton Hall - @ Xavier (23.5%), @ Georgetown (34.1%)
Georgetown - @ DePaul (61.9%), Seton Hall (65.9%)
Big Ten
Probably In
Wisconsin - @ Illinois (55.5%)
Purdue - @ Nebraska (69.0%), Northwestern (78.5%), @ Maryland (53.9%)
Good Chance
Maryland - @ Ohio State (42.8%), Purdue (46.1%)
Northwestern - Indiana (67.4%), @ Purdue (21.5%)
Michigan - @ Michigan State (42.2%), Ohio State (73.9%)
Indiana - @ Northwestern (32.6%), Penn State (82.0%)
Minnesota - @ Illinois (37.9%)
Still a Chance
Michigan State - Michigan (57.8%), @ Nebraska (43.4%)
Illinois - Wisconsin (44.5%), Minnesota (62.1%)
Ohio State - Maryland (57.2%), @ Michigan (26.1%)
Colonial
Still a Chance
UNC Wilmington - Charleston (77.4%), Delaware (99.9%)
Missouri Valley
Solid Chance
Wichita State - @ Bradley (85.3%), @ Drake (84.0%), Illinois State (75.5%)
Good Chance
Illinois State - @ Evansville (62.1%), Northern Iowa (88.1%), @ Wichita State (24.5%)
Pac 12
Solid Chance
Arizona - Washington (99.1%), @ Oregon State (91.6%), @ Oregon (37.2%)
Oregon - Arizona State (95.3%), Arizona (62.8%)
UCLA - @ Washington (88.7%), @ Washington (74.9%)
Good Chance
Utah - @ California (41.6%), @ Stanford (54.1%)
Still a Chance
USC - @ Washington (54.8%), @ Washington (70.6%)
California - Stanford (77.0%), Utah (58.4%)
SEC
Probably In
Kentucky - Georgia (95.7%), @ Florida (41.8%)
Florida - Missouri (99.9%), Kentucky (58.2%)
Solid Chance
South Carolina - @ LSU (71.5%), Georgia (76.9%)
Good Chance
Arkansas - Alabama (73.7%), @ Missouri (67.7%)
Tennessee - @ Auburn (44.5%), @ Mississippi State (45.7%)
Still a Chance
Georgia - @ Kentucky (4.3%), @ South Carolina (23.1%)
Texas A&M - Vanderbilt (63.7%), @ LSU (58.0%)
Vanderbilt - @ Texas A&M (36.3%), Ole Miss (74.9%)
Southern
Still a Chance
East Tennessee State - @ VMI (75.7%)
Furman - @ Mercer (47.2%), @ The Citadel (68.0%)
Chattanooga - UNC Greensboro (77.3%), Western Carolina (99.9%)
West Coast
Probably In
Gonzaga - @ BYU (74.2%), Santa Clara (99.9%)
Solid Chance
Saint Mary's - @ Pacific (84.7%), @ San Diego (78.6%)
Still a Chance
BYU - Gonzaga (25.8%), Portland (94.7%)
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