The Wild Card round is over, and all 4 home teams won convincingly, setting up a few very good matchups for this coming weekend. I've adjusted each team's rating based on last week's action, and then adjusted each remaining team's odds of continuing on through each round and winning the Super Bowl. Change in odds since last week is in parentheses.
Odds of Reaching Conference Championship
1. Patriots - 80.5% (+3.9)
2. Falcons - 69.9% (-1.5)
3. Cowboys - 62.5% (-7.5)
4. Chiefs - 58.8% (-3.2)
5. Steelers - 41.2% (+11.6)
6. Packers - 37.5% (+18.3)
7. Seahawks - 30.1% (+11.9)
8. Texans - 19.5% (+11.7)
All of last weekend's winners saw a big jump in their odds, since the teams they beat are down to no chance. Three of the teams on bye saw their odds drop due to the tougher teams winning the wild card games, though New England saw its odds rise since they get to face Houston, the worst team entering the playoffs, who beat Oakland and their third-string quarterback.
Odds of Reaching Super Bowl
1. Patriots - 51.9% (+1.7)
2. Falcons - 38.4% (-1.0)
3. Cowboys - 35.1% (-5.2)
4. Chiefs - 25.8% (-1.3)
5. Steelers - 17.1% (+4.4)
6. Packers - 14.0% (+6.9)
7. Seahawks - 12.5% (+5.3)
8. Texans - 5.2% (+3.3)
The Packers had the biggest jump this week thanks to their blowout of the Giants, and the Cowboys had the biggest drop for the same reason, because they now have to face the Packers.
Odds of Winning Super Bowl
1. Patriots - 29.0% (+0.7)
2. Falcons - 20.6% (-0.7)
3. Cowboys - 17.3% (-2.9)
4. Chiefs - 12.6% (-0.8)
5. Steelers - 8.0% (+2.1)
6. Packers - 6.0% (+3.1)
7. Seahawks - 5.0% (+2.2)
8. Texans - 1.6% (+1.1)
New England is still the favorite to win it all, and even increased their chances a bit, though plenty of other teams have a good chance.
My Picks
Divisional
(1) Patriots over (4) Texans
(3) Steelers over (2) Chiefs
(1) Cowboys over (4) Packers
(2) Falcons over (3) Seahawks
Conference Championships
(1) Patriots over (3) Steelers
(2) Falcons over (1) Cowboys
Super Bowl
(1) Patriots over (2) Falcons
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