Tuesday, January 24, 2017

College Basketball Tourney Watch - 24 Jan

There are 7 weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, so I've gone through each conference and determined the chances of each team making it into the tournament field as an at-large selection this March. I am currently breaking teams down into 4 levels: Probably In, Solid Chance, Good Chance, and Still a Chance. As we get closer to March, I will add a Definitely In level, but no team is quite there yet. Any conference not shown here is likely to have only one representative in March. Here they are, broken down by conference, along with their odds of winning each game this week:

American

Solid Chance

Cincinnati - vs. Xavier (73.7%), vs. South Florida (99.9%)
SMU - @ UCF (53.3%)

Good Chance

Houston - vs. Tulane (99.9%), vs. Temple (78.8%)

Still a Chance

UCF - vs. SMU (46.7%), @ Tulsa (45.8%)
Memphis - @ Temple (42.4%), vs. East Carolina (88.5%)

Atlantic 10

Good Chance

Dayton - @ VCU (36.4%)
Rhode Island - @ Richmond (54.3%), vs. St. Bonaventure (76.5%)
VCU - vs. Dayton (63.6%)

ACC

Probably In

North Carolina - vs. Virginia Tech (90.5%), @ Miami (FL) (60.2%)
Louisville - @ Pittsburgh (62.2%), vs. NC State (92.4%)
Virginia - @ Notre Dame (42.4%), @ Villanova (29.5%)

Solid Chance

Florida State - @ Georgia Tech (69.4%), @ Syracuse (58.6%)
Notre Dame - vs. Virginia (57.6%), @ Georgia Tech (65.5%), vs. Duke (62.4%)
Duke - @ Wake Forest (46.1%), @ Notre Dame (37.6%)

Good Chance

Wake Forest - @ Syracuse (45.9%), vs. Duke (53.9%)
Miami (FL) - vs. Boston College (91.7%), vs. North Carolina (39.8%)
Clemson - @ Pittsburgh (43.4%)

Still a Chance

Virginia Tech - @ North Carolina (9.5%), vs. Boston College (89.4%)
Syracuse - vs. Wake Forest (54.1%), vs. Florida State (41.4%)
Pittsburgh - vs. Louisville (37.8%), vs. Clemson (56.6%)
NC State - @ Louisville (7.6%)

Big 12

Probably In

Kansas - @ West Virginia (26.0%), @ Kentucky (22.0%)
Baylor - vs. Texas Tech (87.2%), @ Ole Miss (70.0%)
West Virginia - vs. Kansas (74.0%), vs. Texas A&M (98.5%)

Solid Chance

Iowa State - vs. Kansas State (69.1%), @ Vanderbilt (52.2%)

Good Chance

Kansas State - @ Iowa State (30.9%), @ Tennessee (47.5%)
TCU - vs. Auburn (76.9%)
Oklahoma State - vs. Arkansas (70.9%), @ Oklahoma (49.0%)

Still a Chance

Texas Tech - @ Baylor (12.8%), vs. LSU (88.1%)
Oklahoma - vs. Florida (39.7%), vs. Oklahoma (51.0%)
Texas - @ Georgia (26.5%)

Big East

Probably In

Villanova - @ Marquette (56.4%), vs. Virginia (70.5%)

Solid Chance

Butler - @ Seton Hall (52.7%), vs. Georgetown (87.3%)
Creighton - @ Georgetown (57.5%), vs. DePaul (99.9%)

Good Chance

Marquette - vs. Villanova (43.6%), vs. Providence (75.7%)
Xavier - @ Cincinnati (26.3%), @ St. John's (60.1%)

Still a Chance

Seton Hall - vs. Butler (47.3%)
Providence - vs. St. John's (77.5%), @ Marquette (24.3%)
Georgetown - vs. Creighton (42.5%), @ Butler (12.7%)

Big Ten

Probably In

Purdue - @ Michigan State (56.9%), @ Nebraska (68.1%)

Solid Chance

Wisconsin - vs. Penn State (91.9%), @ Rutgers (90.1%)

Good Chance

Maryland - vs. Rutgers (88.2%), @ Minnesota (30.7%)
Northwestern - vs. Nebraska (84.9%), vs. Indiana (65.0%)
Minnesota - @ Ohio State (44.5%), vs. Maryland (69.3%)
Indiana - @ Michigan (43.3%), @ Northwestern (35.0%)

Still a Chance

Michigan State - vs. Purdue (43.1%), vs. Michigan (63.5%)
Illinois - vs. Iowa (76.3%), @ Penn State (44.9%)
Michigan - vs. Indiana (56.7%), @ Michigan State (36.5%)
Ohio State - vs. Minnesota (55.5%), @ Iowa (43.1%)

Colonial

Still a Chance

UNC Wilmington - @ James Madison (72.2%), @ William & Mary (61.5%)

Conference USA

Still a Chance

Middle Tennessee - vs. Southern Miss (99.9%), vs. Louisiana Tech (76.2%)

Missouri Valley

Good Chance

Illinois State - vs. Indiana State (95.7%), @ Evansville (63.8%)
Wichita State - vs. Southern Illinois (95.6%), @ Bradley (82.6%)

Pac 12

Solid Chance

Arizona - vs. Washington State (99.9%), vs. Washington (99.7%)
Oregon - @ Utah (43.9%), @ Colorado (61.7%)
UCLA - @ USC (58.0%)

Good Chance

Utah - vs. Oregon (56.1%), vs. Oregon State (99.9%)

Still a Chance

California - vs. Stanford (77.6%)
USC - vs. UCLA (42.0%)

SEC

Probably In

Kentucky - @ Tennessee (73.2%), vs. Kansas (78.0%)

Solid Chance

Florida - @ LSU (79.4%), @ Oklahoma (60.3%)

Good Chance

South Carolina - vs. Auburn (81.0%), @ Missouri (73.3%)
Arkansas - @ Vanderbilt (40.4%), @ Oklahoma State (29.1%)
Georgia - vs. Alabama (79.5%), vs. Texas (73.5%)

Still a Chance

Tennessee - vs. Kentucky (26.8%), vs. Kansas State (52.5%)
Vanderbilt - vs. Arkansas (59.6%), vs. Iowa State (47.8%)
Texas A&M - @ Ole Miss (38.7%), @ West Virginia (1.5%)

Southern

Still a Chance

Chattanooga - vs. VMI (99.9%), @ East Tennessee State (39.2%)
East Tennessee State - @ Samford (47.5%), vs. Chattanooga (60.8%)

West Coast

Probably In

Gonzaga - vs. San Diego (99.9%), @ Pepperdine (99.9%)

Good Chance

Saint Mary's - vs. San Francisco (86.1%), @ Santa Clara (72.2%)

Still a Chance

BYU - @ Santa Clara (58.0%), vs. Loyola Marymount (90.0%)


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