There are 7 weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, so I've gone through each conference and determined the chances of each team making it into the tournament field as an at-large selection this March. I am currently breaking teams down into 4 levels: Probably In, Solid Chance, Good Chance, and Still a Chance. As we get closer to March, I will add a Definitely In level, but no team is quite there yet. Any conference not shown here is likely to have only one representative in March. Here they are, broken down by conference, along with their odds of winning each game this week:
American
Solid Chance
Cincinnati - vs. Xavier (73.7%), vs. South Florida (99.9%)
SMU - @ UCF (53.3%)
Good Chance
Houston - vs. Tulane (99.9%), vs. Temple (78.8%)
Still a Chance
UCF - vs. SMU (46.7%), @ Tulsa (45.8%)
Memphis - @ Temple (42.4%), vs. East Carolina (88.5%)
Atlantic 10
Good Chance
Dayton - @ VCU (36.4%)
Rhode Island - @ Richmond (54.3%), vs. St. Bonaventure (76.5%)
VCU - vs. Dayton (63.6%)
ACC
Probably In
North Carolina - vs. Virginia Tech (90.5%), @ Miami (FL) (60.2%)
Louisville - @ Pittsburgh (62.2%), vs. NC State (92.4%)
Virginia - @ Notre Dame (42.4%), @ Villanova (29.5%)
Solid Chance
Florida State - @ Georgia Tech (69.4%), @ Syracuse (58.6%)
Notre Dame - vs. Virginia (57.6%), @ Georgia Tech (65.5%), vs. Duke (62.4%)
Duke - @ Wake Forest (46.1%), @ Notre Dame (37.6%)
Good Chance
Wake Forest - @ Syracuse (45.9%), vs. Duke (53.9%)
Miami (FL) - vs. Boston College (91.7%), vs. North Carolina (39.8%)
Clemson - @ Pittsburgh (43.4%)
Still a Chance
Virginia Tech - @ North Carolina (9.5%), vs. Boston College (89.4%)
Syracuse - vs. Wake Forest (54.1%), vs. Florida State (41.4%)
Pittsburgh - vs. Louisville (37.8%), vs. Clemson (56.6%)
NC State - @ Louisville (7.6%)
Big 12
Probably In
Kansas - @ West Virginia (26.0%), @ Kentucky (22.0%)
Baylor - vs. Texas Tech (87.2%), @ Ole Miss (70.0%)
West Virginia - vs. Kansas (74.0%), vs. Texas A&M (98.5%)
Solid Chance
Iowa State - vs. Kansas State (69.1%), @ Vanderbilt (52.2%)
Good Chance
Kansas State - @ Iowa State (30.9%), @ Tennessee (47.5%)
TCU - vs. Auburn (76.9%)
Oklahoma State - vs. Arkansas (70.9%), @ Oklahoma (49.0%)
Still a Chance
Texas Tech - @ Baylor (12.8%), vs. LSU (88.1%)
Oklahoma - vs. Florida (39.7%), vs. Oklahoma (51.0%)
Texas - @ Georgia (26.5%)
Big East
Probably In
Villanova - @ Marquette (56.4%), vs. Virginia (70.5%)
Solid Chance
Butler - @ Seton Hall (52.7%), vs. Georgetown (87.3%)
Creighton - @ Georgetown (57.5%), vs. DePaul (99.9%)
Good Chance
Marquette - vs. Villanova (43.6%), vs. Providence (75.7%)
Xavier - @ Cincinnati (26.3%), @ St. John's (60.1%)
Still a Chance
Seton Hall - vs. Butler (47.3%)
Providence - vs. St. John's (77.5%), @ Marquette (24.3%)
Georgetown - vs. Creighton (42.5%), @ Butler (12.7%)
Big Ten
Probably In
Purdue - @ Michigan State (56.9%), @ Nebraska (68.1%)
Solid Chance
Wisconsin - vs. Penn State (91.9%), @ Rutgers (90.1%)
Good Chance
Maryland - vs. Rutgers (88.2%), @ Minnesota (30.7%)
Northwestern - vs. Nebraska (84.9%), vs. Indiana (65.0%)
Minnesota - @ Ohio State (44.5%), vs. Maryland (69.3%)
Indiana - @ Michigan (43.3%), @ Northwestern (35.0%)
Still a Chance
Michigan State - vs. Purdue (43.1%), vs. Michigan (63.5%)
Illinois - vs. Iowa (76.3%), @ Penn State (44.9%)
Michigan - vs. Indiana (56.7%), @ Michigan State (36.5%)
Ohio State - vs. Minnesota (55.5%), @ Iowa (43.1%)
Colonial
Still a Chance
UNC Wilmington - @ James Madison (72.2%), @ William & Mary (61.5%)
Conference USA
Still a Chance
Middle Tennessee - vs. Southern Miss (99.9%), vs. Louisiana Tech (76.2%)
Missouri Valley
Good Chance
Illinois State - vs. Indiana State (95.7%), @ Evansville (63.8%)
Wichita State - vs. Southern Illinois (95.6%), @ Bradley (82.6%)
Pac 12
Solid Chance
Arizona - vs. Washington State (99.9%), vs. Washington (99.7%)
Oregon - @ Utah (43.9%), @ Colorado (61.7%)
UCLA - @ USC (58.0%)
Good Chance
Utah - vs. Oregon (56.1%), vs. Oregon State (99.9%)
Still a Chance
California - vs. Stanford (77.6%)
USC - vs. UCLA (42.0%)
SEC
Probably In
Kentucky - @ Tennessee (73.2%), vs. Kansas (78.0%)
Solid Chance
Florida - @ LSU (79.4%), @ Oklahoma (60.3%)
Good Chance
South Carolina - vs. Auburn (81.0%), @ Missouri (73.3%)
Arkansas - @ Vanderbilt (40.4%), @ Oklahoma State (29.1%)
Georgia - vs. Alabama (79.5%), vs. Texas (73.5%)
Still a Chance
Tennessee - vs. Kentucky (26.8%), vs. Kansas State (52.5%)
Vanderbilt - vs. Arkansas (59.6%), vs. Iowa State (47.8%)
Texas A&M - @ Ole Miss (38.7%), @ West Virginia (1.5%)
Southern
Still a Chance
Chattanooga - vs. VMI (99.9%), @ East Tennessee State (39.2%)
East Tennessee State - @ Samford (47.5%), vs. Chattanooga (60.8%)
West Coast
Probably In
Gonzaga - vs. San Diego (99.9%), @ Pepperdine (99.9%)
Good Chance
Saint Mary's - vs. San Francisco (86.1%), @ Santa Clara (72.2%)
Still a Chance
BYU - @ Santa Clara (58.0%), vs. Loyola Marymount (90.0%)
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