Logan's Sports Ratings

Sunday, December 4, 2022

NCAA Football Rankings - 4 Dec

Two teams left no doubt that they are the top 2 teams in the country yesterday, with Georgia and Michigan dominating their conference title games and finishing undefeated. The other 2 playoff spots are up for grabs after USC and TCU both lost, and it looks like Ohio State should grab one of them thanks to having only 1 loss, that coming against Michigan one week ago. The final spot will probably go to either TCU or Alabama. TCU had only one loss this season, yesterday in overtime to Kansas State, who is a very good team. Alabama lost twice, both on last-second plays, to LSU and Tennessee, also both very good teams. My feeling is that the committee will probably pick Alabama, citing their perceived tougher strength of schedule, but the actual facts show that TCU played a tougher schedule and performed better in those games, so I am leaving TCU as my final playoff team. Here are my full current rankings, with conference champs in bold, runners-up underlined, and playoff teams in red:

						Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L
1	1	Georgia	-24.01	13	0	13	0
2	3	Michigan	-20.04	13	0	13	0
3	2	Ohio State	-19.74	11	1	11	1
4	5	Texas	-19.13	8	4	8	4
5	4	TCU	-19.05	12	1	12	1
6	6	Kansas State	-18.84	10	3	10	3
7	7	Alabama	-18.3	10	2	10	2
8	8	Tennessee	-17.64	10	2	10	2
9	9	Penn State	-16.18	10	2	10	2
10	10	Utah	-15.9	10	3	10	3
11	11	Florida State	-14.19	8	3	8	3
12	14	Clemson	-13.76	11	2	11	2
13	13	Oregon	-12.75	9	3	9	3
14	12	USC	-12.37	11	2	11	2
15	17	Tulane	-11.8	11	2	11	2
16	15	LSU	-11.2	9	4	9	4
17	16	Oklahoma	-11.03	6	6	6	6
18	18	Baylor	-10.62	6	6	6	6
19	19	Oregon State	-10.5	9	3	9	3
20	21	Louisville	-10.26	7	5	7	5
21	20	Mississippi St	-10.24	8	4	8	4
22	23	Illinois	-10.15	7	4	7	4
23	22	Notre Dame	-10.03	8	4	8	4
24	24	Washington	-9.658	10	2	10	2
25	25	Texas Tech	-9.272	7	5	7	5
26	26	Ole Miss	-9.101	8	4	8	4
27	28	UCLA	-8.476	9	3	9	3
28	29	Kansas	-8.406	6	6	6	6
29	30	Wake Forest	-8.342	7	5	7	5
30	27	UCF	-8.157	9	4	9	4
31	31	Minnesota	-8.124	8	4	8	4
32	32	Iowa State	-7.856	4	8	4	8
33	33	Oklahoma State	-7.835	7	5	7	5
34	34	Florida	-7.383	6	6	6	6
35	35	Cincinnati	-7.07	9	3	9	3
36	36	James Madison	-6.962	8	3	8	3
37	38	South Carolina	-6.961	8	4	8	4
38	37	Duke	-6.574	8	4	8	4
39	39	Kentucky	-6.532	7	5	7	5
40	49	UT San Antonio	-6.274	11	2	11	2
41	47	Troy	-6.223	11	2	11	2
42	41	South Alabama	-6.218	10	2	10	2
43	40	Pittsburgh	-6.187	8	4	8	4
44	42	Arkansas	-5.952	6	6	6	6
45	43	SMU	-5.734	7	5	7	5
46	46	NC State	-5.681	8	4	8	4
47	45	Maryland	-5.658	7	5	7	5
48	48	Syracuse	-5.569	7	5	7	5
49	50	Iowa	-5.402	7	5	7	5
50	51	Memphis	-5.148	6	6	6	6
51	52	Washington St	-4.978	7	5	7	5
52	54	Missouri	-4.926	6	6	6	6
53	44	North Carolina	-4.453	8	4	8	4
54	53	Purdue	-4.438	8	5	8	5
55	55	Houston	-4.378	7	5	7	5
56	56	West Virginia	-4.032	5	7	5	7
57	57	Wisconsin	-3.814	6	6	6	6
58	59	Marshall	-3.348	8	4	8	4
59	64	Fresno State	-3.184	9	4	9	4
60	61	Texas A&M	-3.103	5	7	5	7
61	60	East Carolina	-3.097	7	5	7	5
62	58	Boise State	-2.56	9	4	9	4
63	63	Air Force	-2.097	9	3	9	3
64	62	Appalachian St	-2.093	6	6	6	6
65	65	Auburn	-1.725	5	7	5	7
66	66	Louisiana	-1.444	6	6	6	6
67	67	BYU	-1.044	7	5	7	5
68	69	West Kentucky	-0.982	7	5	7	5
69	68	UAB	-0.891	6	6	6	6
70	71	Michigan St	-0.071	5	7	5	7
71	75	Toledo	0.2354	8	5	8	5
72	72	Army	0.2373	5	6	6	6
73	70	Ohio	0.5715	9	4	9	4
74	74	Navy	1.1527	4	7	4	8
75	73	North Texas	1.2903	6	6	6	6
76	77	Liberty	1.4337	8	4	8	4
77	79	Vanderbilt	1.9618	4	7	4	7
78	78	Georgia Southern	2.1004	6	6	6	6
79	80	California	2.2546	4	8	4	8
80	76	Coastal Carolina	2.3494	9	3	9	3
81	81	Georgia State	2.5182	4	8	4	8
82	82	Nebraska	2.6545	4	7	4	7
83	83	Southern Miss	2.9289	6	6	6	6
84	84	Arizona	3.0058	6	6	6	6
85	85	San Jose State	3.153	7	4	7	4
86	86	Miami	3.5962	5	7	5	7
87	88	Tulsa	3.5964	5	7	5	7
88	87	Florida Atlantic	3.7794	4	7	4	7
89	89	Arizona State	3.9535	3	9	3	9
90	90	Kent State	4.0485	5	7	5	7
91	94	San Diego State	4.2233	7	5	7	5
92	91	Stanford	4.234	3	9	3	9
93	92	Georgia Tech	4.4035	5	7	5	7
94	95	Indiana	4.6338	4	8	4	8
95	93	Buffalo	5.3258	6	6	6	6
96	96	Mid Tennessee	5.3484	7	5	7	5
97	97	Virginia Tech	5.7341	3	8	3	8
98	98	Virginia	5.9613	3	7	3	7
99	99	Connecticut	6.6597	6	5	6	5
100	100	Rutgers	6.8075	4	8	4	8
101	101	Boston College	7.0094	3	9	3	9
102	102	Wyoming	7.0566	7	4	7	4
103	103	Old Dominion	7.3177	3	9	3	9
104	106	Eastern Michigan	7.3191	8	4	8	4
105	107	Ball State	7.3934	4	8	4	8
106	105	Louisiana Monroe	7.4135	4	8	4	8
107	104	Temple	7.4765	3	9	3	9
108	108	UNLV	7.5752	4	7	4	7
109	109	Texas State	7.7758	4	8	4	8
110	110	Miami (OH)	7.9868	6	6	6	6
111	111	Rice	8.3647	5	7	5	7
112	113	Arkansas State	8.4383	3	9	3	9
113	118	New Mexico St	8.4768	6	5	6	5
114	112	Northwestern	8.4961	0	11	0	11
115	114	UTEP	8.5029	5	6	5	6
116	115	South Florida	8.8449	1	11	1	11
117	116	Central Michigan	8.8631	4	8	4	8
118	117	Utah State	10.267	5	6	5	6
119	119	Louisiana Tech	10.512	3	9	3	9
120	120	Bowling Green	11.047	6	6	6	6
121	121	West Michigan	11.097	5	7	5	7
122	122	Northern Illinois	11.292	3	9	3	9
123	123	Akron	12.194	2	10	2	10
124	124	Colorado	14.034	1	11	1	11
125	126	Hawaii	15.505	3	9	3	9
126	125	Colorado State	15.577	3	9	3	9
127	127	Nevada	15.904	1	10	1	10
128	128	Charlotte	16.695	3	8	3	8
129	129	New Mexico	16.817	2	10	2	10
130	130	Florida Intl	18.121	4	8	4	8
131	131	UMass	18.56	1	11	1	11

Saturday, December 3, 2022

NBA MVP Rankings - 3 Dec

As Boston continues to dominate the early season, their star player, Jayson Tatum, continues to sit atop the MVP leaderboard at the quarter-point of the season. There are 4 players who have joined the top 10 since two weeks ago, including one of Tatum's teammates and 2 former MVP winners. Here are my full current MVP rankings, with previous rank in parentheses:

Most Valuable Player

1 (1) Jayson Tatum - PF - BOS

30.8 Pts (#5), 8.0 Reb, 4.4 Ast, 1.1 Blk, .479 FG%, .354 3P%, .866 FT%

2 (2) Giannis Antetokounmpo - PF - MIL

31.8 Pts (#2), 11.2 Reb (#5), 5.5 Ast, 1.0 Blk, .542 FG% (#20), .220 3P%, .614 FT%

3 (8) Devin Booker - SG - PHX

29.5 Pts (#7), 5.2 Reb, 5.9 Ast, 1.1 Stl, .495 FG%, .390 3P%, .866 FT%

4 (10) Nikola Jokic - C - DEN

22.7 Pts (#20), 9.8 Reb (#13), 8.9 Ast (#3), 1.3 Stl (#19), .631 FG% (#4), .349 3P%, .826 FT%

5 (4) Trae Young - PG - ATL

27.8 Pts (#10), 2.9 Reb, 9.6 Ast (#2), .411 FG%, .303 3P%, .899 FT% (#11)

6 (NR) Jaylen Brown - SF - BOS

26.6 Pts (#12), 6.9 Reb, 3.5 Ast, 1.0 Stl, .510 FG%, .345 3P%, .836 FT%

7 (NR) Stephen Curry - PG - GSW

30.8 Pts (#4), 6.9 Reb, 7.0 Ast (#11), 1.0 Stl, .513 FG%, .439 3P% (#18), .909 FT% (#9)

8 (6) Ja Morant - PG - MEM

28.2 Pts (#9), 6.4 Reb, 7.3 Ast (#9), 1.1 Stl, .460 FG%, .366 3P%, .743 FT%

9 (NR) Kevin Durant - PF - BKN

29.8 Pts (#6), 6.6 Reb, 5.4 Ast, 1.8 Blk (#6), .554 FG% (#18), .345 3P%, .921 FT% (#3)

10 (NR) Tyrese Haliburton - PG - IND

19.1 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 10.9 Ast (#1), 1.8 Stl (#4), .461 FG%, .369 3P%, .839 FT%

Honorable Mention: Luka Doncic - PG - DAL, Donovan Mitchell - SG - CLE, Joel Embiid - C - PHI, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - SG - OKC, Anthony Davis - C - LAL

All-Time Player Rank Changes

Anthony Davis has passed Draymond Green to move up to #70

John Wall has passed Gus Williams, Dennis Rodman, and Tom Heinsohn to move up to #87

My rating system

When formulating any statistical rating system, the most important step is removing as much human bias as possible from the equation. I use Strength of Schedule, Home Advantage, and Margin of Victory data that is straight from the actual game results, along with an adjustment for momentum. I go 50 levels deep on the Strength of Schedule to ensure that all teams are connected, and what comes out is a highly accurate system for predicting future results based on past performance.

My college basketball pick of the day is done eliminator-style, meaning that each team can only be picked once in a season, and that team is being picked to win the game, not cover the spread.