Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Top 50 NFL Quarterbacks: #45


George Blanda

George Blanda is one of the most famous names of the early NFL, but the majority of his notoriety comes from what he did as a placekicker, not at the quarterback position, although he was pretty good there as well.

Blanda began his career with the Chicago Bears in 1949, finally earning the starting quarterback job in his fifth season, but it only lasted two years, when an injury ended his season early and caused the Bears to look elsewhere for a QB. He spent the next 4 years as a kicker only, and he became so fed up with Coach Halas' insistence that he would not put him back at quarterback that he retired in 1958.

After one year out of football, the 33-year-old Blanda had the stroke of luck he wanted when the AFL was formed and teams started gobbling up castoff players. He landed with the Houston Oilers, which he led to a 10-4 record and a berth in the first AFL championship game, which they won behind a great game from Blanda, who went 16 for 31, racked up 301 yards, and threw 3 touchdowns without a pick.

The following season he took them back the the championship game, which they again won despite a mediocre game from Blanda, who was only 18 for 40 for 160 yards and the game's only touchdown. The team was able to overcome his 5 interceptions, partly due to the opposing quarterback throwing 4 of his own. He took them to one more title game in 1962, but they failed to threepeat, going down to the Dallas Texans 20-17.

Blanda played 7 seasons with the Oilers, who finally decided that the 39-year-old QB was washed up, but rather than retire, he signed on with the Oakland Raiders to play kicker and backup quarterback, which he did for another 9 years, finally retiring at age 48 as the league's all-time leading scorer.

Among the many record he still holds are oldest player to participate in a game (age 48), most interceptions in a season (42), most extra points made (943 out of 959), and most touchdown passes in a game (7). Despite playing for 26 seasons, he was only a starting quarterback for 9 and only a good one for 3, but his play in the first AFL title game was the reason the Oilers won, and he was good enough in the next two years guiding them to more title games that he qualifies as one of the all-time greatest QB's.


Monday, July 6, 2015

Top 50 NFL Quarterbacks: #46


Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson is the first active quarterback to appear in my top 50, but just how can a guy who has only played 3 seasons be included among the greatest of all time?

First of all, consider that there are only 14 quarterbacks in NFL history that have thrown for at least 20 touchdowns and 10 or fewer interceptions in a season during the first three years of their career while leading their team to a winning record. Of those 14, 11 were first-round draft picks (Wilson was not). And even more impressively, among those 14, only 1 has ever done it more than once - Wilson, who has done it in all 3 of his professional seasons.

It is pretty rare for a quarterback to be named the starter before his first NFL game, especially if he was not a first-round pick. It is even rarer for him to keep that job for more than a season. And it is basically unheard of for that quarterback to not only lead his team to three straight winning seasons to open his career, but to win 75% of his regular season games, and average record of 12-4 per season. Wilson has done all of that.

Aside from his accurate passing numbers, it is also important to note that Wilson is one of the best running quarterbacks currently in the NFL. In 2014 he led all quarterbacks with 849 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground, and in 2013 he was #2 in rushing with 539 yards, while in his rookie season he was #3 with 489 yards. With those numbers, he is truly a dual-threat quarterback.

Finally, he is a winner. He has not only won 75% of his regular season games, he has matched that number in the postseason, with 6 wins and only 2 losses, including a Super Bowl win in just his second season and a near-win in season #3. If he had completed his final pass in this year's Super Bowl to a teammate rather than an opponent, he would have become the youngest ever to win two titles, and probably would have jumped between four and six spots higher on this list. At this point, he's got a lot of seasons still ahead, so who knows how high he will climb.

Sunday, July 5, 2015

Top 50 NFL Quarterbacks: #47


Y.A. Tittle

Yelberton Abraham Tittle is the full name of a quarterback who is often named as one of the early greats, but Y.A. barely made it into my top 50. He retired over 50 years ago, so it's actually somewhat impressive that his career still stands up to many of today's offensive-minded quarterbacks.

He began his career with the Baltimore Colts of the AAFC, a short-lived league that was absorbed into the NFL after Tittle's second year. One year later, then team folded, and Tittle and his teammates were thrown back into the draft to be dispersed among the remaining teams, and Tittle ended up being picked up by San Francisco.

He spend the entire decade of the 1950's in San Francisco, starting most of the games for a team that was almost always in the middle of the pack in the Western Division, back in the days before playoffs existed and you had to win your division to play in the championship game. During his 10 years leading the 49ers, they tied for the division lead once, which put them in a one-game playoff with Detroit, who beat them to advance to the title game.

He was traded to the New York Giants prior to the 1961 season, and he most likely wouldn't be on this list if that hadn't happened. Despite playing only four seasons in New York before retiring, Tittle amassed some amazing numbers that made him one of the greats. He was named MVP in 1961, 1962, and 1963, leading the Giants to the Eastern Division title each time, but losing in the championship game all three times, twice to Green Bay and once to Chicago.

Even though he did not win a championship during his career, or even a playoff game, his passing prowess was amazing. In 1962 he threw for 3224 yards and 33 touchdowns, 4 more than any other quarterback that season. The following season was even better, with 3145 yards and an NFL-record 36 touchdowns with only 14 interceptions.

He is the second quarterback in a row to make this list without earning any credit for playoff performance, but his great play in those two season in particular were enough to get him included on the list of the greatest of all time.

Saturday, July 4, 2015

Top 50 NFL Quarterbacks: #48


John Hadl

John is one of the most obscure quarterbacks on my list, and for good reason. First of all, his best seasons came in the 1960's AFL, and through his entire career as a starter he only guided his team to the playoffs two times, and did not pick up a win in either playoff appearance. John is here completely due to his performance during the regular season.

He took over as starter for the San Diego Chargers in the middle of the 1964 season, while they were still the defending champions of the AFL. Over the course of the next 8 seasons, he was in the top 5 (NFL and AFL combined) in terms of passing yards and touchdowns 6 times, but was always kept from greatness by his penchant for throwing interceptions, throwing over 20 in a season 7 times.

John was traded to the Los Angeles Rams before the 1973 season, and for the first time in 9 years made the playoffs, leading them to a 12-2 record, tops in the league. Even with the high expectations, they were upset in the first round by the Dallas Cowboys, and he was again traded the following season, this time to Green Bay.

The trade to Green Bay has gone down as one of the most lopsided in history, with Hadl way past his prime and unable to guide a team that hadn't made the playoffs in 7 years going one way, and 5 early-round draft picks going the other. It would be 20 years before the Packers would make the playoffs again.

It is hard to determine which one his season was statistically best, but the season that did the most to get him into the top 50 was 1967, when he near the top in every passing category, finishing with 3365 yards and 24 touchdowns while guiding San Diego to an 8-5-1 record. He may not meet the criteria of being a winner, but he was a very good offensive player who maintained his high level of play for a full decade, which has earned him a spot in the lower reaches of my countdown.

Friday, July 3, 2015

Top 50 NFL Quarterbacks: #49


Danny White

In the early days of the NFL, it was not uncommon for a team's quarterback to pull double duty as a punter or kicker, but this practice was almost completely phased out by the late 1960's, when player specialization really took hold. The only notable exception in the past 50 years was Danny White, Dallas' quarterback for much of the 1980's, who also handled the team's punting for 8 seasons.

White set 7 NCAA passing records during his career at Arizona State, but was disappointed to be drafted by the Dallas Cowboys, who had a star quarterback in the prime of his career by the name of Roger Staubach. Dallas wanted to bring him in as a punter, but he felt he belonged at QB, so he joined the USFL for a couple years before the league folded and he decided to take Dallas' offer to play punter and backup quarterback. In that role he was a member of the Super Bowl XII champions, and even got the chance to play quarterback for a series in the fourth quarter. He spent 4 years backing up the legend in Dallas before finally getting his chance at the helm in 1980.

None of the above helped White make this list, because punting statistics were not counted toward greatness at the QB position, and he wasn't a major contributor to the championship, but when he stepped in to replace Staubach, he was almost immediately one of the top quarterbacks in the league. During each of his first three season as the starter, Dallas advanced to the NFC championship game, but fell short each time in its bid to reach the Super Bowl. For this reason, plus the fact that he was being compared to his predecessor, White has never been fully appreciated by football fans.

His best overall season came in 1982, which was shortened to 9 games due to a strike, when he finished with 2079 yards and 16 touchdowns, both #4 in the league during the short season. He again finished among the top 5 in both categories the following season, with 3980 yards and 29 touchdowns for a full season, but his team lost in the wild card round and White lost his starting job to open the next season.

When Gary Hogeboom, his former backup, began struggling midway through the 1984 season, White was reinstated as the starter and nearly got his team back to the playoffs, missing out due to a tiebreaker. The following season he led them back to the playoffs, but the season ended in disappointment again with another first round playoff loss.

In 1986, the Cowboys were in first place midway through the season and White was the top-rated passer in the league when he suffered the only major injury of his career, a broken throwing wrist, which ended his season and, eventually, his playing career, as he was never able to return to his previous form.

In the five seasons in which he was the unquestioned starter, he led Dallas to the playoffs five times, three times advancing to the conference championship game. Although he never led his team to the Super Bowl, he led one of the NFL's best offenses for most of a decade, which is why he is included among the top 50 quarterbacks of all time.


Thursday, July 2, 2015

Top 50 NFL Quarterbacks: #50


Phil Simms

Phil Simms was the first quarterback selected in the 1979 NFL Draft, a draft that included Joe Montana, so he was often looked at as a disappointment, but he was actually a pretty good quarterback when he wasn't injured. He began his career as the Giants' starter, but saw very little success through his first three seasons, He suffered through season-ending injuries in 1981, 1982, and 1983, first a separated shoulder, then a torn knee ligament, and a broken thumb.

While recovering from his thumb injury, Simms committed himself to watching more game film, and the result was a breakout season in 1984, with over 4000 passing yards and his first Pro Bowl appearance, in which he was voted the MVP. It was also the first of three straight playoff appearances for the Giants under Simms.

The biggest reason he is on this list is his performance in Super Bowl XXI, in which the 14-2 Giants faced John Elway and the Denver Broncos, the third trip to the big game for Elway. It was the first time New York had ever played in the Super Bowl, but Simms played the game of his life, connecting on 22 out of 25 passes for 268 yards and 3 touchdowns as the Giants won 39-20. For his efforts, Simms was named Super Bowl MVP, and his 88% completion percentage is still the best ever in a Super Bowl.

A player strike shortened the following season, and Phil and the Giants struggled to get back to Super Bowl form, but in 1990 they were finally back on track, with Phil having a great season, when Simms broke his foot in game 14 and was replaced at QB by Jeff Hostetler, who took the Giants to 5 straight wins and another Super Bowl win.

After the Super Bowl win, the Giants replaced Simms as the starter with Hostetler, and he only played after Hostetler was injured near the end of the 1991 season. He won back his starting job at that point, only to lose it again due to an arm injury early in 1992. He won his starting job back before the 1993 season and had his best season since 1988, but the Giants decided to release him following the season after he required yet another surgery, and he decided to retire rather than looking for a new team at age 38.

Simms is a player who may never have lived up to his full potential due to five different season-ending injuries, each to a different body part, but the fact is that he still won a Super Bowl for the Giants, something fewer than 40 quarterbacks can say, and he set them up for another. Maybe he didn't quite measure up to Joe Montana, but I would not go so far as to call his career disappointing, not while he owns a Super Bowl ring and Super Bowl MVP award.

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Top 50 NFL Quarterbacks of All Time: Intro

4 years ago, I shared the results of a long-term project I had been working on here on my blog, the top 100 NBA Players of All Time, using statistics, playoff performance, and longevity to determine which basketball players were better than others. I unveiled the rankings one at a time from June 2011 to June 2012, and you can still take a look at them by checking the blog archive on the left side of this screen. (Click on "View web version" at the bottom first if you are viewing this on your phone.)

For the past few years I have been working on a formula for ranking the top NFL Quarterbacks of All Time, and I have spent a lot of time making sure that the players have similar credentials to those that made by Top 100 NBA list. I ran a multiple regression analysis to determine which statistics were most important in determining team success, and used the resulting formula to rank every quarterback in every season since 1932, when the league began tracking passing statistics.

Within each season, I ranked the players by average value per game, using total possible regular season games since a player is not helping his team when he is not playing. I also added in playoff statistics as extra credit, giving players who led their teams to the playoffs and those that won playoff games a little more of a boost. I then found the average value for a starter and awarded each player above that level points for how high they were above that average for the season. Players below the average were not rewarded or penalized. The players totals for each season were then totaled into a career value, which were ranked from 1 to 217. This method allows for players to be recognized for sustained productivity or short periods of excellence, with the players at the top showing sustained excellence.

One of the criteria most often used to determine excellence in quarterbacks is Super Bowl wins, with Super Bowl losses often being viewed as complete failure. While neither of these is completely true, neither is completely false either. Winning the Super Bowl, especially multiple times, is often a good sign of a great player, but some who have won the biggest game were no more than placeholders for teams that won mostly by running the ball or using suffocating defense. For this reason, there are several Super Bowl champs that did not make this list, including two-time winner Bob Griese, who was not a great passer, but ran a team with bruising running backs.

The evolution of the position has caused modern players to show up more often on this list than many of the early greats, with no player in the top ten playing before 1979, and 10 active quarterbacks ranked among the top 50 of all time. There are still several older QB's on the list, including a few who played their entire careers before the Super Bowl was even created.

I plan to begin unveiling my rankings tomorrow with #50, and will continue for the next several months. I hope you enjoy following through this process and learning a bit more about some of these players in the process.