Basketball Predictions - 6 Dec

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

New York at Miami - Heat by 1
Dallas at Phoenix - Suns by 1

College Basketball

Long Beach State at (4) Syracuse - Orange by 30
Arkansas-Little Rock at (11) Cincinnati - Bearcats by 21
(16) Creighton at Nebraska - Bluejays by 8
UC-Santa Barbara at San Diego State - Aztecs by 15

Prediction Results

NBA: 10-1 (.909) 182-85 overall (.682)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 39-24 overall (.619)
College Basketball: 6-1 (.857) 221-51 overall (.813)

NFL Rankings - 5 Dec

There is only one month remaining in the regular season, and three teams have already clinched their divisions, and another has been guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. That leaves only 8 more spots for the remaining 28 teams to fight over, and very few teams have been mathematically eliminated. Here are my current rankings, with teams grouped by similar level of performance and ESPN's Power Rankings in parentheses.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (ESPN)
1. (1) New England (9-3) W (3)

2. (2) San Francisco (8-3-1) L (4)

3. (5) Houston (11-1) W (1)
4. (4) Denver (9-3) W (5)

5. (6) NY Giants (7-5) L (10)
6. (7) Seattle (7-5) W (12)

7. (3) Chicago (8-4) L (8)

8. (9) Atlanta (11-1) W (2)

9. (12) Cincinnati (7-5) W (11)
10. (8) Baltimore (9-3) L (6)
11. (10) Green Bay (8-4) W (7)
12. (11) Tampa Bay (6-6) L (15)
13. (13) Washington (6-6) W (14)

14. (18) Pittsburgh (7-5) W (13)

15. (20) Saint Louis (5-6-1) W (19)
16. (14) New Orleans (5-7) L (18)
17. (15) Minnesota (6-6) L (17)
18. (23) Miami (5-7) L (20)
19. (19) San Diego (4-8) L (25)
20. (16) Dallas (6-6) W (16)
21. (17) Detroit (4-8) L (21)
22. (22) NY Jets (5-7) W (22)
23. (25) Arizona (4-8) L (27)
24. (26) Buffalo (5-7) W (23)

25. (24) Cleveland (4-8) W (24)
26. (21) Carolina (3-9) L (28)
27. (28) Indianapolis (8-4) W (9)

28. (27) Tennessee (4-8) L (26)

29. (30) Philadelphia (3-9) L (30)

30. (29) Jacksonville (2-10) L (32)

31. (31) Kansas City (2-10) W (31)

32. (32) Oakland (3-9) L (29)

Cincinnati has now won 4 straight games after losing 4 straight before that, but the last three wins have all come against the AFC West, and none of those wins came against Denver, the team that has run away with the division. The Bengals' only wins against possible playoff teams have been against the Giants and Redskins, and 4 of their five losses came against potential playoff foes. They play two more winnable games before facing the two top teams in their division again.

Saint Louis has the number of every team in its division, but unfortunately cannot seem to beat anybody else. The Rams are 4-0-1 against the other NFC West teams, but are only 1-6 against all other opponents. Even stranger is that they have not lost to Seattle or San Francisco, both of which have been top 10 teams for almost the entire season.

Miami followed up an upset victory over Seattle with a near win over New England, the best team in the league, and suddenly the Dolphins are feeling pretty good. The bad news is that they will almost definitely go 2-2 over the final 4 games, since they have home games against Buffalo and Jacksonville sandwiched between visits to the two best teams in my rankings.

I've been saying all year that Carolina is better than their record shows, due to the huge number of close games they've lost to good teams, but losing to Kansas City, even on the road and with an inspired opponent, is inexcusable. They are already guaranteed a losing record, and there's only one game left on their schedule that they should win, which is against Oakland just before Christmas.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Denver at Oakland - Broncos by 17

Sunday

Saint Louis at Buffalo - Bills by 1
Dallas at Cincinnati - Bengals by 9
Kansas City at Cleveland - Browns by 11
Tennessee at Indianapolis - Colts by 5
Chicago at Minnesota - Bears by 3
San Diego at Pittsburgh - Steelers by 6
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay - Buccaneers by 16
Baltimore at Washington - Redskins by 3
Atlanta at Carolina - Falcons by 5
NY Jets at Jacksonville - Jets by 5
Miami at San Francisco - 49ers by 16
New Orleans at NY Giants - Giants by 11
Arizona at Seattle - Seahawks by 13
Detroit at Green Bay - Packers by 8

Monday

Houston at New England - Patriots by 12

NBA

New York at Charlotte - Knicks by 13
Portland at Indiana - Pacers by 7
Minnesota at Boston - Celtics by 3
Golden State at Detroit - Pistons by 4
Denver at Atlanta - Hawks by 4
Chicago at Cleveland - Bulls by 1
LA Lakers at New Orleans - Lakers by 1
Milwaukee at San Antonio - Spurs by 17
Orlando at Utah - Jazz by 6
Toronto at Sacramento - Kings by 1
Dallas at LA Clippers - Clippers by 15

College Basketball

(6) Florida at Florida State - Gators by 20
(10) Gonzaga at Washington State - Bulldogs by 16
USC at (18) New Mexico - Lobos by 19
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at (19) Michigan State - Spartans by 33
South Florida at (23) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 20
UAB at Middle Tennessee - Blue Raiders by 25
Boise State at Utah - Broncos by 9

Prediction Results

NFL: 9-7 (.563) 120-71 overall (.628)
Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 17-16 overall (.515)
NBA: 3-3 (.500) 172-84 overall (.672)
College Basketball: 10-4 (.714) 215-50 overall (.811)
Upsets: 0-3 (.000) 15-20 overall (.429)

Basketball Predictions - 4 Nov

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Minnesota at Philadelphia - 76ers by 2
Miami at Washington - Heat by 14
Oklahoma City at Brooklyn - Thunder by 3
Indiana at Chicago - Bulls by 6
LA Lakers at Houston - Rockets by 4
Phoenix at Memphis - Grizzlies by 17

College Basketball

Western Michigan at (3) Michigan - Wolverines by 25
(5) Louisville at Charleston - Cardinals by 3
Southern Miss at (8) Arizona - Wildcats by 23
Southeast Missouri State at (12) Missouri - Tigers by 9
West Carolina at (13) Illinois - Fighting Illini by 22
South Dakota State at (14) Minnesota - Golden Gophers by 28
Texas vs. (15) Georgetown - Longhorns by 2
(21) UNLV at Portland - Rebels by 15
(25) North Carolina State vs. Connecticut - Wolfpack by 4
Florida Gulf Coast at Iowa State - Cyclones by 16
Wyoming at Illinois State - Redbirds by 7
Northwestern at Baylor - Bears by 20
Nebraska-Omaha at Wisconsin - Badgers by 37
Louisiana Tech at Northwestern State - Bulldogs by 1

Prediction Results

NBA: 5-1 (.833) 169-81 overall (.676)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 39-23 overall (.629)
College Basketball: 2-0 (1.000) 205-46 overall (.817)

College Basketball Rankings - 3 Dec

Undefeated teams dropped like flies this week, with only 20 of the 33 surviving the week unscathed. The Gonzaga Bulldogs gave up the top spot this week, but not due to a loss. Other teams with more impressive schedules and wins passed the Zags, but they are still among the best teams in the country. 8 teams that made my rankings dropped out of the top 25, so nearly a third of the teams listed below are new. Here are my latest rankings, with teams grouped by similar levels of performance and current AP rankings in parentheses.

TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (AP)
1. (3) Florida (1-0) 6-0 (6)

2. (8) Indiana (2-0) 8-0 (1)
3. (1) Gonzaga (2-0) 8-0 (10)

4. (5) Syracuse (1-0) 5-0 (4)

5. (16) Duke (2-0) 8-0 (2)

6. (NR) Arizona (2-0) 5-0 (8)
7. (2) Ole Miss (1-0) 6-0 (NR)
8. (9) Ohio State (1-1) 5-1 (7)
9. (11) Middle Tennessee (1-1) 5-2 (NR)
10. (4) Michigan (2-0) 7-0 (3)

11. (NR) VCU (2-0) 5-3 (NR)
12. (23) Iowa State (1-0) 5-2 (NR)
13. (6) Pittsburgh (2-0) 7-1 (NR)
14. (7) Cincinnati (1-0) 7-0 (11)
15. (NR) Baylor (1-0) 5-2 (NR)
16. (NR) Minnesota (2-0) 8-1 (14)

17. (NR) Illinois (1-0) 8-0 (13)
18. (19) Illinois State (0-1) 5-2 (NR)
19. (12) Creighton (1-1) 7-1 (16)
20. (NR) Wichita State (2-0) 8-0 (24)
21. (NR) Boise State (2-0) 6-1 (NR)
22. (18) Wisconsin (1-1) 5-3 (NR)
23. (10) Oklahoma State (0-1) 5-1 (23)
24. (NR) North Carolina (1-1) 6-2 (20)
25. (13) UNLV (2-0) 5-1 (21)

Dropped Out

(15) Kansas (2-0) 6-1 (9)
(24) West Virginia (1-0) 2-3 (NR)
(17) Akron (1-0) 4-2 (NR)
(14) Stephen F Austin (1-0) 5-0 (NR)
(20) Colorado State (2-0) 6-0 (NR)
(22) Ohio (1-1) 6-1 (NR)
(21) Saint Joseph's (1-1) 4-2 (NR)
(25) Northwestern (0-2) 6-2 (NR)

Ranked Teams by Conference

Big 10 - 6
Big East - 3
Big 12 - 3
MVC - 3
SEC - 2
ACC - 2
MWC - 2
WCC - 1
Pac 12 - 1
Sun Belt - 1
Atl 10 - 1

Florida moved into the top spot this week by wiping out the usually strong Marquette Golden Eagles 82-49 on Thursday. They've had large victories over two teams currently in my top 25 (Wisconsin and Middle Tennessee), and another over a team that used to be ranked here (Savannah State). Their next two games should test them, as they are traveling to face Florida State and Arizona, but the Gators should come out on top in both games and state their case for being at the top of the official rankings as well.

Duke is another team that many feel should be ranked #1, and they have the strength of schedule needed, beating 3 top 4 teams so far, but one of those (Kentucky) was severely overrated. They have, however, beaten 4 teams from my top 25, although 3 of them were single-digit victories, and none came on the road. It is tough to argue with wins over Louisville and Ohio State, but for now the Blue Devils are still just a top 5 team.

Arizona is beating their opponents in more impressive fashion each time they take the court, and they have a couple of good opponents coming up this week as they prepare for a huge showdown with Florida in 2 weeks. The Wildcats are the only Pac-12 team in my top 25 right now, but there are several other good teams in the conference, including Oregon, Oregon State, and Colorado.

VCU is one of only two teams in my rankings that has lost 3 times already, but none of the losses came against a team they should have beaten. They have beaten Belmont and Memphis, both regular tournament teams, by double digits, which has earned them a spot near the top of the rankings, but they'll have to avoid losing too many more this season since they have no ranked opponents remaining on their schedule.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Portland at Charlotte - Trail Blazers by 2
Cleveland at Detroit - Pistons by 6
Milwaukee at New Orleans - Hornets by 1
Toronto at Denver - Nuggets by 10
LA Clippers at Utah - Clippers by 2
Orlando at Golden State - Warriors by 8

College Basketball

Eastern Michigan at (4) Syracuse - Orange by 36
Texas Southern at (17) San Diego State - Aztecs by 20

Prediction Results

NBA: 1-1 (.500) 164-80 overall (.672)
College Basketball: 2-1 (.667) 203-46 overall (.815)

College Football Rankings - 2 Dec

The regular season is over, and the final BCS rankings have been released. The title game is between the two teams that everyone expected, and it's tough to argue with the choices, since one is the only true undefeated team in the country and the other is the champion of the best conference. While I don't feel that the two best teams will be playing in the championship, it's only because Oregon blew their chance against Stanford, and I don't feel that a team that didn't win their conference should be allowed to be in a 2-team playoff. Here are my final regular season rankings, with teams grouped by similar level of performance and BCS rankings in parentheses.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (BCS)
1. (2) Oregon (11-1) BYE (4)
2. (1) Alabama (12-1) W (2)

3. (3) Texas A&M (10-2) BYE (9)

4. (5) Georgia (11-2) L (7)
5. (4) Kansas State (11-1) W (5)

6. (8) Florida (11-1) BYE (3)
7. (7) Oklahoma (10-2) W (11)
8. (10) Notre Dame (12-0) BYE (1)
9. (9) Stanford (11-2) W (6)

10. (15) Oregon State (9-3) W (13)
11. (6) Oklahoma State (7-5) L (NR)
12. (12) South Carolina (10-2) BYE (10)
13. (11) LSU (10-2) BYE (8)

14. (17) USC (7-5) BYE (NR)

15. (18) Fresno State (9-3) BYE (NR)
16. (13) Florida State (11-2) W (12)

17. (19) Arizona State (7-5) BYE (NR)

18. (NR) Wisconsin (8-5) W (NR)
19. (24) UCLA (9-4) L (17)
20. (14) Baylor (7-5) W (NR)
21. (16) Texas (8-4) L (23)

22. (21) Clemson (10-2) BYE (14)
23. (25) BYU (7-5) BYE (NR)
24. (22) Michigan (8-4) BYE (18)
25. (NR) Utah State (10-2) BYE (22)

Dropped Out

(23) Vanderbilt (8-4) BYE (NR)
(20) TCU (7-5) L (NR)

Ranked Teams by Conference

Pac 12 - 6
SEC - 6
Big 12 - 5
Ind - 2
ACC - 2
Big 10 - 2
MWC - 1
WAC - 1

Look for more analysis on the upcoming bowl games next week, as well as some playoff scenarios that would have been preferable to the current BCS system.

Prediction Results

College Football: 15-4 (.789) 599-204 overall (.746)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 68-82 overall (.453)

Basketball Predictions - 2 Dec

NBA

Phoenix at New York - Knicks by 17
Orlando at LA Lakers - Lakers by 15

College Basketball

Middle Tennessee at Akron - Blue Raiders by 5
Wichita State at Air Force - Shockers by 7
Boise State at Seattle - Broncos by 19

Prediction Results

NBA: 8-2 (.800) 163-79 overall (.674)
Upsets: 4-2 (.667) 37-23 overall (.617)
College Basketball: 22-2 (.917) 201-45 overall (.817)
Upsets: 3-0 (1.000) 15-17 overall (.469)

NBA MVP Rankings - 1 Dec

One month into a new NBA season, and the top of the MVP rankings don't look too much different from last season's. The ascension of the Memphis Grizzlies into the top tier of teams has added a few new faces to the ranks, but most of the other top players have been here before. Here are my current rankings for the early-season MVP leaders, grouped by similar level of performance.

1. LeBron James - MIA - 25.0 pts, 8.9 reb, 6.5 ast, 1.1 stl, .533 FG%, .435 3P%

2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 26.5 pts, 8.8 reb, 4.4 ast, 1.6 blk, 1.6 stl, .510 FG%

3. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 20.8 pts, 5.1 reb, 8.6 ast, 2.0 stl, .772 FT%

4. Chris Bosh - MIA - 20.1 pts, 8.4 reb, 1.4 ast, 1.3 blk, .560 FG%, .862 FT%

5. Marc Gasol - MEM - 15.6 pts, 7.1 reb, 4.5 ast, 1.4 blk, .897 FT%
6. Carmelo Anthony - NYK - 26.1 pts, 7.0 reb, 2.1 ast, .440 3P%, .789 FT%
7. Zach Randolph - MEM - 16.3 pts, 12.6 reb, 1.5 ast
8. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 26.9 pts, 5.1 reb, 5.1 ast, 1.6 stl, .405 3P%, .875 FT%

9. Rudy Gay - MEM - 19.1 pts, 5.6 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.4 stl, .409 3P%, .787 FT%
10. Tim Duncan - SAS - 18.4 pts, 9.8 reb, 2.6 ast, 2.5 blk, .529 FG%, .760 FT%

Honorable Mention - David Lee - GSW

What can you say about LeBron James? He is one of the 10 greatest players ever to play the game, and he is only 27 years old. Somehow, he keeps getting better every year. This is the 6th straight season in which he has improved his shooting percentage, and he is also averaging career highs in 3-point percentage and rebounding so far this year. And his team? Sitting at 1st place in the Eastern Conference, which is where LeBron has spent the majority of his career. It will take something big to prevent James from winning another MVP, and it may come down to the voters getting tired of giving him the award, a la Michael Jordan.

Sitting in second place just like he did all through last season and right through the Finals is Kevin Durant, who is undoubtedly a great player, but is not on the same level as LeBron. Durant is three years younger, so he has time to get there, and he once again has the Thunder near the top of the Western Conference, but he is not leading the league in scoring, instead allowing the ancient Kobe Bryant to nudge him out of the top spot for the first time in years. He will need the scoring title for a real shot at dethroning LeBron as the MVP.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Brooklyn at Miami - Heat by 3
Portland at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 4
Philadelphia at Chicago - Bulls by 7
Oklahoma City at New Orleans - Thunder by 12
Utah at Houston - Rockets by 6
Boston at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1
Memphis at San Antonio - Spurs by 3
Detroit at Dallas - Pistons by 1
Sacramento at LA Clippers - Clippers by 11
Indiana at Golden State - Warriors by 4

College Basketball

Coppin State at (1) Indiana - Hoosiers by 45
Delaware at (2) Duke - Blue Devils by 20
(3) Michigan at Bradford - Wolverines by 10
North Kentucky at (4) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 38
Illinois State at (5) Louisville - Cardinals by 4
Baylor at (8) Kentucky - Wildcats by 12
(9) Arizona at Texas Tech - Wildcats by 20
Saint Joseph's at (11) Creighton - Bluejays by 3
Pacific at (12) Gonzaga - Bulldogs by 30
Nicholls State at (13) Michigan State - Spartans by 19
UAB at (14) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 14
(15) Oklahoma State at Virginia Tech - Cowboys by 6
Appalachian State at (16) Missouri - Tigers by 30
Alabama at (17) Cincinnati - Bearcats by 19
(19) Colorado at Wyoming - Cowboys by 14
North Florida at (21) Minnesota - Golden Gophers by 19
(23) San Diego State vs. UCLA - Aztecs by 3
Hawaii at (24) UNLV - Rebels by 28
(25) New Mexico at Indiana State - Lobos by 3
Rutgers at Ole Miss - Rebels by 29
Detroit at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 26
San Diego at Stephen F Austin - Lumberjacks by 31
BYU at Iowa State - Cyclones by 15
Belmont at VCU - Rams by 13

Prediction Results

NBA: 10-1 (.909) 155-77 overall (.668)
Upsets: 3-0 (1.000) 33-21 overall (.611)
College Basketball: 3-0 (1.000) 179-43 overall (.806)