College Basketball Conference Predictions - ACC, Big 12, SEC

I thought it would be fun to predict the final standings of each of the major college basketball conferences starting from today's standings, so today you're going to get the first 3. I calculated this by calculating their probability of winning each of their remaining games, then adding the probabilities together. For example, if one team is given a 75% chance of winning a game, they would get .75 of a win added to their total and the opponent would get .25. After going through each game I rounded off to the nearest whole number. Each team's name if followed by its projected conference and overall records, as well as its current standing in the conference. Current standings can be seen here.

ACC

1. Duke (13-3) (28-3) (1)

2. Florida State (11-5) (21-9) (2)

3. Maryland (10-6) (21-10) (8)

4. North Carolina (10-6) (20-10) (4)

5. Virginia Tech (9-7) (19-10) (6)

6. Boston College (9-7) (19-11) (2)

7. Clemson (8-8) (19-11) (5)

8. Miami (7-9) (19-12) (9)

9. North Carolina State (6-10) (16-14) (10)

10. Georgia Tech (6-10) (14-16) (7)

11. Virginia (5-11) (14-16) (11)

12. Wake Forest (2-14) (9-22) (12)

The two things that seem most sure in the ACC are that Duke will end up at the top and Wake Forest will end up in last place. Florida State looks like they'll end up in 2nd despite being the fifth best team in the conference, thanks to their upset win over Duke. Maryland is ranked low today because they had to play at Duke already, but their only difficult road games the rest of the way are against Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Boston College has the most difficult road schedule remaining of anyone in the conference, visiting Florida State, Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech. Wake Forest is lucky to be facing NC State, Georgia Tech, and Virginia at home, because otherwise they probably would not win a conference game. The biggest threats to Duke are road games at North Carolina and Maryland.

Big 12

1. Kansas (14-2) (29-2) (1)

2. Texas (12-4) (24-7) (2)

3. Texas A&M (10-6) (23-7) (3)

4. Missouri (9-7) (23-8) (5)

5. Nebraska (8-8) (20-10) (6)

5. Oklahoma State (8-8) (20-10) (6)

7. Baylor (8-8) (18-11) (8)

8. Colorado (8-8) (19-12) (4)

9. Iowa State (7-9) (20-11) (9)

10. Kansas State (6-10) (18-13) (10)

11. Oklahoma (4-12) (12-18) (11)

12. Texas Tech (2-14) (10-21) (12)

Kansas appears to be a pretty clear favorite to win the Big 12, with only a few potential bumps in the road when they visit Missouri, Kansas State, and Colorado. Texas also appears to have a clear hold on second place after their defeat of Texas A&M, probably only losing at Kansas, Texas A&M, and maybe Colorado. Nebraska and Oklahoma State are tied today and look like they'll end up that way at the end of the season too. Colorado has benefited from playing Missouri at home and no other top Big 12 teams so far, but they have to play at Kansas, Baylor, and Missouri, and they have a visit from the undefeated Jayhawks coming up also. Kansas State has already lost a couple of games they shouldn't have, and it looks like they probably won't be able to recover. Texas Tech should beat Oklahoma at home late in the year, and they'll probably pick up one more upset somewhere else before the season mercifully ends for them.

SEC

1. Kentucky (11-5) (23-7) (6)

2. Alabama (11-5) (19-11) (2)

3. Vanderbilt (10-6) (22-8) (8)

4. Georgia (9-7) (21-9) (7)

5. Florida (9-7) (20-10) (3)

6. Tennessee (9-7) (19-12) (10)

7. Arkansas (8-8) (19-11) (9)

8. South Carolina (8-8) (17-12) (1)

9. Mississippi (7-9) (19-12) (12)

10. Mississippi State (6-10) (14-16) (4)

11. LSU (6-10) (14-17) (5)

12. Auburn (2-14) (9-21) (11)

Kentucky has already lost road games to two of the best teams in the conference, which is why they are currently #6, and they will probably lose a few more, but they are the best team in the conference and will pull themselves back into first before it's all over. Alabama's upset over Kentucky established them as one of the best teams in the conference, and they also have the benefit of two games against in-state rival Auburn, the clear-cut conference loser. Vanderbilt should not have lost at Tennessee, but most of their remaining tough games will be at home, so they should be moving up. Georgia has also beaten Kentucky once this year, and the only games that look like definite losses for them the rest of the way are at Kentucky and Alabama. South Carolina is the ultimate pretender, playing all of their tough games at home so far. That is going to change soon, and the Gamecocks will fall over and over now that the schedule isn't going to be favoring them so much.

NBA Player of the Day

Monta Ellis - GSW - 36 pts, 5 reb, 6 ast, 2 stl, 16-28 FG, 2-3 3P, 2-3 FT

Ellis threw in 36 points for the Golden State Warriors last night, including the game-winner with less than a second left, as the Warriors upset Indiana and kept alive my streak of correctly picked upsets at 18. Although it's not likely, I think Monta should be chosen as an All-Star reserve, especially now that he's having his best year.

Predictions - 20 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

76ers at Bobcats - 76ers by 1

Mavericks at Bulls - Bulls by 4

Clippers at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 6

College Basketball

Indiana at (17) Wisconsin - Wisconsin by 12

(25) Arizona at (20) Washington - Washington by 12

Virginia Tech at Maryland - Maryland by 9

Prediction Results - 19 Jan

NBA: 11/13 (.846) 317/441 overall (.719)

College Basketball: 9/11 (.818) 302/358 overall (.844)

Upsets: 4/4 (1.000) 77/121 overall (.636)

College Basketball Rankings - 19 Jan

Duke finally lost a game this week, which left only 3 undefeated teams in the entire country. Losing did create an opening at #1, and there were many teams that made a case for the top ranking this week. Here are this week's rankings, with team name followed by this week's record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Kansas (3-0) (18-0) -23.37 (3)
2. Duke (1-1) (16-1) -22.72 (1)
3. Washington (1-1) (13-4) -21.81 (4)
4. Ohio State (2-0) (18-0) -21.27 (2)
5. Purdue (0-2) (15-3) -19.57 (5)
6. Kentucky (1-1) (14-4) -18.93 (7)
7. Pittsburgh (3-0) (18-1) -18.74 (10)
8. Saint Mary's (2-0) (16-2) -18.43 (8)
9. BYU (1-0) (18-1) -18.42 (6)
10. Belmont (2-0) (16-3) -18.06 (11)
11. San Diego State (2-0) (19-0) -17.88 (12)
12. Syracuse (2-1) (18-1) -16.40 (20)
13. Texas (1-0) (14-3) -16.33 (9)
14. Wisconsin (1-0) (13-4) -16.08 (18)
15. UNLV (1-1) (14-4) -16.06 (14)
16. Illinois (1-1) (14-5) -15.84 (19)
17. Vanderbilt (1-1) (12-4) -15.84 (16)
18. Maryland (1-1) (11-6) -15.57 (15)
19. West Virginia (2-0) (12-4) -15.35 (23)
20. Georgetown (2-1) (14-5) -15.23 (21)
21. Arizona (1-0) (15-3) -15.18 (17)
22. Louisville (1-1) (14-3) -14.96 (13)
23. Villanova (2-1) (16-2) -14.34 (24)
24. Marquette (1-1) (13-6) -13.99 (25)
25. Missouri (2-1) (16-3) -13.62 (NR)

Dropping Out:
North Carolina (2-1) (13-5) -13.53 (22)

Ranked teams by conference:
Big East: 7
Big 10: 4
Big 12: 3
MWC: 3
ACC: 2
Pac 10: 2
SEC: 2
WCC: 1
Atl Sun: 1

Kansas took the top spot this week after beating three strong conference rivals in a row, with two of those on the road. They continue to face tough competition this week with Texas and Colorado on deck, but they should be able to beat both of them, which should keep them in the top spot.

Duke only dropped one spot following their loss to Florida State, and a large part of the reason is that the Seminoles were already a top 50 team before the upset, and they were playing at home, so a close game was already expected. Their next big test comes at the end of the month when they go on the road to face Saint John's and Maryland, either of which could knock them off.

Ohio State dropped two spots this week despite remaining undefeated and having 3 of the top 5 lose. They beat their two opponents this week by a combined 7 points, and neither Penn State nor Michigan is looking like a tournament-quality team at this point in the season.

Purdue didn't drop at all after losing both of its games this week, but neither was a blowout, and both were to quality opponents. While I don't feel that Minnesota is as good as advertised, they are not a bad team, and West Virginia was expected to beat them at home, at least in my opinion.

Pittsburgh beat a very good Georgetown team on the road by 15 points last Wednesday, then beat Syracuse, who had been undefeated up to that point, to take the lead in the race for the Big East title. A close neutral-site loss to Tennessee probably won't hurt them at all in the long run.

Belmont entered the top 10 for the first time this week after finally receiving a vote in one of the national polls. As dominant as they were before this week, they stepped it up another notch this week, beating two more conference opponents by a combined 71 points. It's time for more voters to start noticing the "other" Bruins.

Syracuse's wins over Saint John's and Cincinnati were both better than expected, then they lost a very tough road game at Big East leader Pittsburgh. Their play this week clearly separated them from the rest of the Big East pack and put them solidly in 2nd place in the nation's best conference.

Texas played only once this week, against Big 12 doormat Oklahoma, but a 20-point win over the Sooners wasn't enough to keep the Longhorns in the top 10, especially since Texas A&M and Baylor just beat the Sooners by similar margins.

Wisconsin moved up after upsetting Illinois, who followed up that upset by taking one of their own against Michigan State. The combination of the two pushed the Badgers up 4 spots and the Illini up 3, giving the Big 10 a couple of possible challengers to Ohio State, who hasn't been playing quite as well lately.

West Virginia started the week with a 30-point blowout of Providence, then capped it off with an upset of Purdue, one of the best teams in the country. The Mountaineers have managed to move up to #21 in the AP poll while still sitting outside the top 25 according to the coaches. It may be easy to overlook them with all the quality teams in the Big East, but they have proven they belong up with the rest.

Louisville didn't play as well as they should have in a loss at Villanova, then needed a miraculous comeback to beat Marquette at home later in the week. I thought that the Cardinals were the #2 team in the Big East, but Syracuse took that honor from them this week, and Louisville rejoined the pack fighting for third.

Every time I write Missouri off, they go and post another impressive victory, this time beating up the Kansas State Wildcats by 16 points on Monday night. I expected the upset, I just didn't expect the blowout. It will be interesting to see how they play in Austin this week.

North Carolina punched their ticket out of the top 25 when they lost by 20 points to Georgia Tech, a team they would have beaten when playing their best basketball. The Tar Heels have been far too inconsistent lately to have a realistic chance of beating Duke next month.

NBA Player of the Day

LeBron James - MIA - 34 pts, 10 reb, 7 ast, 2 stl, 11-30 FG, 10-11 FT
Even though the Heat lost again in James' return and his overall performance wasn't anything out of the ordinary, the fact that there were only two games last night and that the two best players were both on losing teams gave LeBron yet another Player of the Day award. Whether he keeps his lead in the MVP rankings on Friday is another matter, especially with Miami on a 4-game slide.

Predictions - 19 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Suns at Cavaliers - Suns by 7
Jazz at Nets - Jazz by 5
76ers at Magic - Magic by 8
Pistons at Celtics - Celtics by 13
Grizzlies at Hornets - Hornets by 5
Wizards at Bucks - Bucks by 8
Knicks at Rockets - Rockets by 4
Raptors at Spurs - Spurs by 14
Lakers at Mavericks - Lakers by 1
Thunder at Nuggets - Nuggets by 4
Trail Blazers at Kings - Blazers by 5
Pacers at Warriors - Warriors by 1
Timberwolves at Clippers - Clippers by 6

College Basketball

Iowa at (1) Ohio State - Ohio State by 22
(5) Duke at North Carolina State - Duke by 12
Air Force at (6) San Diego State - San Diego State by 21
(10) Texas A&M at (11) Texas - Texas by 9
Penn State at (13) Purdue - Purdue by 18
Saint John's at (15) Louisville - Louisville by 10
Cincinnati at (16) Notre Dame - Notre Dame by 6
San Diego at (21) Saint Mary's - Saint Mary's by 36
Marshall at West Virginia - West Virginia by 15
Mississippi at Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt by 18
Colorado State at UNLV - UNLV by 16

Prediction Results - 18 Jan

NBA: 0/2 (.000) 306/428 overall (.715)
College Basketball: 3/4 (.750) 293/347 overall (.844)
Upsets: 1/1 (1.000) 73/117 overall (.624)

The upset streak is alive and well at 14.

College Basketball Overrated and Underrated - 18 Jan

I've decided to move my overrated and underrated feature to Tuesdays now that the NFL regular season is over to make it match up better with the release of the AP poll on Mondays. All five of my overrated teams lost in the past week, and three of them exited the national rankings as a result. The other two remain nationally ranked, so they also remain on my overrated list. 3 of my underrated teams are also leaving the rankings this week. Saint Mary's made the top 25 in both polls finally, Arizona is ranked by the coaches, and Marquette has finally earned a few votes. All 3 remain among the top 8 underrated schools, but have been replaced among the top 5. Here are the newly updated rankings, with previous ranking in parentheses.

Overrated

1. Minnesota

2. Texas A&M

3. Notre Dame (3)

4. Villanova (4)

5. Connecticut

Minnesota has somehow rocketed back up the rankings despite losing 3 of its last 6 games, all thanks to one big win against Purdue. That won't be enough to keep them afloat after they lose at Michigan in their only game this week and people realize that the Purdue game was a fluke.

Texas A&M is ranked at #11 by the AP after they upset Missouri at home this week, but the Tigers are also somewhat overrated, and the win was predicted in advance by my formula. They should take a little bit of a hit when they lose to Texas tomorrow, especially if they lose by double-digits, which is quite likely.

Notre Dame is a good team, but they should have fallen much farther after losing to two unranked teams in a row last week. Their two big wins were over a slumping Georgetown team and an overrated UConn team, so neither one holds much sway with me. They should win both of their games this week, but both Cincinnati and Marquette have some upset potential.

Villanova lost at fellow overrated team UConn yesterday and should lose at Syracuse on Saturday. The combination of those two losses should be enough to give them a significant drop in the rankings, although the Big East tends to gain more forgiveness for losses than other conferences. (see Notre Dame above)

Connecticut may seem like an odd choice for this list after beating two ranked teams in the past two weeks, but it will all become more clear when the Huskies are upset by Marquette one week from today.

Underrated

1. Belmont (1)

2. Maryland (2)

3. Washington

4. UNLV

5. Vanderbilt

Do mine eyes deceive me? There must be a coach out there somewhere who has been reading my blog, because Belmont received one vote this week in the Coaches' Poll, although they are still voteless in the AP. They will remain in these rankings until one of two things happens: either they will lose a game, or the voters will recognize them and put them in the top 25. At this point neither one seems very likely, but one of them is bound to happen eventually, isn't it?

It seems that losing close games to top 10 teams doesn't earn you respect among poll voters. Just 6 days after losing by 7 points at #1 Duke, the Maryland Terrapins lost by 8 points at #7 Villanova. If they had won those games, you'd be seeing them ranked up around #15, but I guess good performance on the road doesn't mean much to the experts.

Washington lost a close game to Stanford this week on a last-second tip-in, which was enough to cause a drop in the rankings and a climb in the underrated rankings. After they take care of Arizona this week, they should earn a little of that back, but it's unlikely they will ever get to the top 10, which is where they really belong.

3 of UNLV's 4 losses have come to ranked teams, BYU, San Diego State, and Louisville, but because they don't play in one of the power conferences, the result is a drop from the top 25. A smart basketball fan would notice that they have beaten Virginia Tech, Kansas State, and Wisconsin this year and realize that they are the real deal.

Vanderbilt dropped again after they lost at in-state rival Tennessee this week, but they face off with West Coast powerhouse Saint Mary's this week in a game that will be very important for both teams, since neither one is ranked nearly as high as they should be. As of today, I would pick Vandy to win, but that could change by Saturday.

NBA Player of the Day

Blake Griffin - LAC - 47 pts, 14 reb, 3 ast, 19-24 FG, 9-11 FT

On a day where two players scored over 40 and two others had triple-doubles, Griffin's performance in LA's upset win over the Pacers is still the clear winner of this award. He missed only 5 field goals and 2 free throws in the game, for an incredible 80% true shooting percentage, and he also made a case for the coaches to pick him as an All-Star reserve.

Predictions - 18 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Hawks at Heat - Heat by 8

Bobcats at Bulls - Bulls by 13

College Basketball

TCU at (9) BYU - BYU by 26

(12) Kentucky at Alabama - Kentucky by 6

(18) Michigan State at (22) Illinois - Illinois by 8

(23) Georgetown at Seton Hall - Georgetown by 4

Prediction Results - 17 Jan

NBA: 10/13 (.769) 306/426 overall (.718)

College Basketball: 4/4 (1.000) 290/343 overall (.845)

Upsets: 3/3 (1.000) 72/116 overall (.621)

My upset streak is now up to 13 in a row correct, and it may extend to 14 today.

NBA Rankings - 17 Jan

Last week's number one team has now lost three straight, which cost them the top spot (obviously). There have been a lot of really hot teams lately, but not as much movement as you would expect in the overall rankings. Here are the top teams of the season so far, with team name followed by this week's record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. San Antonio (4-0) (35-6) -7.13 (2)

2. Miami (0-3) (30-12) -6.76 (1)

3. Boston (2-1) (30-9) -5.64 (3)

4. LA Lakers (3-1) (30-12) -4.98 (4)

5. Orlando (1-2) (26-14) -4.26 (5)

6. Chicago (3-1) (27-13) -4.10 (6)

7. Denver (3-1) (23-17) -2.39 (13)

8. Dallas (0-3) (26-13) -2.25 (7)

9. New Orleans (3-0) (25-16) -1.99 (9)

10. Utah (2-0) (27-13) -1.85 (10)

11. Oklahoma City (2-0) (27-13) -1.54 (11)

12. Atlanta (1-1) (26-15) -1.18 (8)

13. Memphis (2-1) (19-21) -0.76 (14)

14. Portland (1-2) (21-20) -0.24 (12)

15. Houston (2-2) (18-23) -0.20 (17)

16. New York (1-2) (22-17) 0.34 (15)

17. Milwaukee (0-2) (14-23) 0.91 (16)

18. Philadelphia (1-1) (16-23) 1.36 (18)

19. Indiana (2-1) (16-21) 1.67 (19)

20. Phoenix (2-1) (17-21) 2.45 (20)

21. LA Clippers (2-1) (14-25) 2.65 (21)

22. Golden State (1-1) (16-23) 3.17 (22)

23. Charlotte (2-2) (15-23) 4.85 (25)

24. Toronto (0-3) (13-27) 5.08 (23)

25. Detroit (2-2) (14-26) 5.09 (24)

26. Minnesota (1-2) (10-31) 5.53 (26)

27. Washington (2-1) (11-27) 6.57 (27)

28. New Jersey (0-3) (10-30) 6.58 (28)

29. Sacramento (1-3) (9-29) 7.20 (29)

30. Cleveland (0-3) (8-32) 11.32 (30)

On Fire:

The Denver Nuggets beat last week's first place and last place teams by identical 28-point margins during the week, then lost to the new #1 team, the San Antonio Spurs, last night. The biggest reason for their sudden rise in the rankings was the win over Miami, along with the blowout of Phoenix that came right before it. Maybe the trade rumors aren't really having any impact after all.

The Houston Rockets played four very difficult games this week and all four ended up with five or six-point margins. Strangely, they won the road games against Boston and Atlanta, but lost at home to Oklahoma City and New Orleans. All four of those opponents were in the top 11 last week, so the fact that Houston played well against all four gave them a little nudge upward in the rankings.

Charlotte's story this week is very similar to that of Houston. They beat two very good teams, Chicago and Memphis, then lost close games to Boston and New Orleans. The Bobcats have won 6 of their past 10, and seem to be enjoying playing under a new coach. It may not be too late for a playoff push.

Ice Cold:

After winning 21 of 22 games, the Miami Heat have now dropped 3 straight. First came the loss to the Clippers, who have been hot of late but still shouldn't have been in the same class as Miami, especially since they were at full strength. They lost to Denver after that, a game in which LeBron sat out, but they still had two All-Stars on the court to Denver's one, so the loss was unacceptable, especially by 28 points. The loss to Chicago for forgivable, because Derrick Rose has had Chicago playing its best basketball since Michael Jordan retired the second time.

Atlanta tumbled back out of the top 10 this week after barely pulling off a win against Toronto and then losing to the Houston Rockets 3 nights later. We'll see a little better who they really are when they face the Miami Heat this week.

After losing a close game against Miami to finish up last week, the Portland Trail Blazers followed it up with much less impressive losses to the New York Knicks and Phoenix Suns. A close win over New Jersey, who's only won once since Christmas, didn't help their cause either.

NBA Player of the Day

Tony Parker - SAS - 30 pts, 7 reb, 4 ast, 2 stl, 11-15 FG, 2-2 3P, 6-6 FT

Parker was completely unstoppable and nearly perfect in the Spurs big win over the streaking Denver Nuggets in San Antonio last night. The Spurs have the 3rd-best record in league history at the midway point of the season and largest division lead they've had in 30 years, and Parker is one of the biggest reasons for it.

Predictions - 17 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Suns at Knicks - Knicks by 5

Jazz at Wizards - Jazz by 6

Bulls at Grizzlies - Bulls by 1

Bobcats at 76ers - 76ers by 6

Raptors at Hornets - Hornets by 10

Bucks at Rockets - Rockets by 4

Mavericks at Pistons - Mavs by 5

Pacers at Clippers - Clippers by 2

Kings at Hawks - Hawks by 11

Nets at Warriors - Warriors by 6

Magic at Celtics - Celtics by 4

Timberwolves at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 8

Thunder at Lakers - Lakers by 6

College Basketball

(3) Kansas at Baylor - Kansas by 7

(4) Syracuse at (5) Pittsburgh - Pitt by 8

(7) Villanova at (9) Connecticut - UConn by 6

(20) Kansas State at (12) Missouri - Missouri by 6

Prediction Results - 16 Jan

NFL: 1/2 (.500) 75/120 overall (.625)

NBA: 1/2 (.500) 296/413 overall (.717)

College Basketball: 4/5 (.800) 286/339 overall (.844)

Upsets: 2/2 (1.000) 69/113 overall (.611)

Predictions - 16 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Lakers vs. Clippers - Lakers by 9
Nuggets at Spurs - Spurs by 7

NFL

Seahawks at Bears - Bears by 15
Jets at Patriots - Patriots by 12

College Basketball

(8) Purdue at West Virginia - West Virginia by 2
(11) Notre Dame at Saint John's - Saint John's by 1
(18) Washington at California - Washington by 7
Iowa at (25) Minnesota - Minnesota by 12
North Carolina at Georgia Tech - North Carolina by 7

Prediction Results - 15 Jan

NFL: 2/2 (1.000) 74/118 overall (.627)
NBA: 7/9 (.778) 295/411 overall (.718)
College Basketball: 22/23 (.957) 282/334 overall (.844)
Upsets: 7/7 (1.000) 67/111 overall (.604)

NBA Player of the Day

Derrick Rose - CHI - 34 pts, 4 reb, 8 ast, 3 blk, 12-27 FG, 2-6 3P, 8-8 FT
Rose seems to be taking it personally that I dropped him in the MVP rankings this week, winning the Player of the Day award for the second straight day as the Bulls knocked off the Miami Heat one day after beating the Pacers. If the Bulls don't lose this week, look for Rose to make a big move toward the top of the MVP standings.

NBA All-Stars

With the All-Star game just weeks away and the voting set to end next week, I've decided to put in my opinion on which players should be included on the All-Star teams. I've used the same formula that I use to determine my MVP rankings, but I've removed the use of team record as a measurement, since All-Stars should be the best players, and should not be limited to players on winning teams.

East

Starters

F LeBron James

F Amare Stoudemire

C Dwight Howard

G Dwyane Wade

G Derrick Rose

Bench

F Carlos Boozer

F Paul Pierce

C Al Horford

G Raymond Felton

G Joe Johnson

F Chris Bosh

F Joakim Noah

F Josh Smith (injury replacement, if necessary)

It looks like the voters have actually got the starting lineup right for the first time for as long as I can remember. The coaches have a few tough decisions, and I assume they will probably choose Rondo over one of the guards I've selected, but I believe this is the best team the East can put on the floor, and a downright scary starting five.

West

Starters

F Kevin Love

F Kevin Durant

C Pau Gasol

G Russell Westbrook

G Kobe Bryant

Bench

F Blake Griffin

F Dirk Nowitzki

C Zach Randolph

G Monta Ellis

G Deron Williams

F LaMarcus Aldridge

F Carmelo Anthony

F Rudy Gay (injury replacement, if necessary)

You may have noticed that both centers I listed on the West roster are actually power forwards, but with the lack of quality centers in the West right now and the injured Yao Ming leading the voting, I looked to a couple of big forwards who play more like centers to fill those slots. Leaving Chris Paul off my ballot may be a little controversial, but Westbrook and Williams are both playing better at the point this year, and Monta Ellis is one of the most exciting players that noone gets to watch. I would start Love over Anthony, which the voters wouldn't, but there is no more dominant inside player in the NBA right now than the Timberwolves' big man, Amare and Dwight Howard included.

NBA Player of the Day

Derrick Rose - CHI - 29 pts, 10 reb, 5 ast, 2 blk, 11-21 FG, 3-6 3P, 4-5 FT

Rose continued his stellar play with a double-double big man style last night. You don't expect 10 rebounds and 2 blocks from your point guard, but Rose does everything well, and he has the Bulls winning, which is what has made him an MVP candidate so early in his career.

Predictions - 15 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

College Basketball

Virginia at (1) Duke - Duke by 30

Penn State at (2) Ohio State - Ohio State by 25

Nebraska at (3) Kansas - Kansas by 19

Cincinnati at (4) Syracuse - Syracuse by 11

Seton Hall at (5) Pittsburgh - Pitt by 19

(6) San Diego State at New Mexico - San Diego State by 2

Maryland at (7) Villanova - Villanova by 3

(9) Connecticut at DePaul - UConn by 11

(12) Missouri at (13) Texas A&M - Texas A&M by 7

Oklahoma at (14) Texas - Texas by 24

LSU at (15) Kentucky - Kentucky by 26

(16) Illinois at (21) Wisconsin - Wisconsin by 6

Marquette at (17) Louisville - Louisville by 7

(19) Georgetown at Rutgers - Georgetown by 5

Texas Tech at (20) Kansas State - Kansas State by 18

(22) UCF at Southern Miss - Southern Miss by 2

(23) Temple at Duquesne - Duquesne by 5

Northwestern at (24) Michigan State - Michigan State by 7

Vanderbilt at Tennessee - Vanderbilt by 1

UNLV at Air Force - UNLV by 7

Campbell at Belmont - Belmont by 25

Santa Clara at Saint Mary's - Saint Mary's by 24

Arizona State at Arizona - Arizona by 21

NFL

Ravens at Steelers - Steelers by 5

Packers at Falcons - Packers by 2

Seahawks at Bears - Bears by 14

Jets at Patriots - Patriots by 12

NBA

Rockets at Hawks - Hawks by 5

Raptors at Wizards - Wizards by 1

Hornets at Bobcats - Hornets by 4

Kings at Pistons - Pistons by 5

Heat at Bulls - Bulls by 1

Magic at Timberwolves - Magic by 7

Mavericks at Grizzlies - Mavericks by 1

Cavaliers at Nuggets - Nuggets by 17

Nets at Trail Blazers - Trail Blazers by 10

Prediction Results - 14 Jan

NBA: 8/11 (.727) 288/402 overall (.716)

Upsets: 1/2 (.500) 60/104 overall (.577)

NBA MVP Rankings - 14 Jan

Losses and injuries have caused quite a bit of shifting among the leading MVP candidates, but the players on that list remain the same and the very top also remains unchanged. Here are the top candidates for each of the major awards as of today. Previous ranking is in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James - MIA - 25.4 pts, 7.0 reb, 7.2 ast (1)

LeBron sat out last night's loss to the Denver Nuggets, but his previous 3 games were magnificent. The highlight of the week was his 44-point, 13-rebound domination in Portland on Sunday. The missed game was James' first of the season, and unless the injury is more serious than it sounds, it should have no impact on his place in this race.

2. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 24.9 pts, 6.5 reb, 4.3 ast (2)

Wade had a pair of 30-point games this week, but he looked lost without his running mate last night against Denver. He shot only 37% from the field and made only 2 of 7 free throws, which would be considered low even for Shaq. You can't prove anything in just one game, but James appears to be the Heat's MVP.

3. Pau Gasol - LAL - 18.5 pts, 10.9 reb, 1.9 blk (5)

Pau returned to form this week with 4 straight double-doubles as the Lakers went 4-0. Is it just a coincidence that the Lakers play their best basketball when Gasol is playing at his best? I don't think so.

4. Kevin Durant - OKC - 28.5 pts, 6.2 reb, 3.0 ast (6)

Durant padded his lead in the scoring race this week with 3 straight games of at least 30 points, including a 40-point gem against the Grizzlies. The Thunder won all 3 games, and Durant had averages of 62% from the field, 50% from long range, and 87% from the line.

5. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 25.2 pts, 5.1 reb, 4.6 ast (7)

Kobe was having just another average week until Wednesday night, when he exploded for 39 points against the Golden State Warriors, his first 30-point outing since the calendar changed. Kobe also managed to shoot a perfect 17 for 17 from the free throw line in the last 3 Laker games this week.

6. Derrick Rose - CHI - 24.1 pts, 4.4 reb, 8.1 ast (3)

Rose's overall performance was not bad this week, with averages of 27 points and 6 assists, but his Chicago Bulls lost games to Philadelphia and Charlotte, two members of the East's lower echelon. Had the Bulls won both games, he would have held on to his #3 position.

7. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 22.2 pts, 5.1 reb, 8.3 ast (9)

Westbrook highlighted a stellar week with his second triple-double of the season last night, which was enough to earn him the Player of the Day award again. (Oops, did I spoil the surprise?) Westbrook earned at least a double-double in each game this week as the Thunder went undefeated against some tough competition.

8. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 24.1 pts, 7.4 reb, 2.4 ast (4)

Dirk has now missed 8 straight games, 6 of which were losses for the Mavericks. This injury proves Nowitzki's worth to Dallas, which makes it even more important for him to make sure he's fully healed before returning, because they can't survive without him for any extended period of time.

9. Amare Stoudemire - NYK - 26.1 pts, 8.9 reb, 2.3 blk (8)

Amare was very consistent this week, scoring 22 or 23 points in every game, but he dropped a spot because the Knicks lost two of those games. The losses came on the road in Utah and LA, so they weren't unexpected, but a couple of wins could have shot Amare up the rankings.

10. Dwight Howard - ORL - 21.9 pts, 13.4 reb, 2.3 blk (10)

Howard averaged over 15 rebounds per game this week while increasing his scoring output in each game, from 13 last Friday to 39 last night. He even converted 17 of 20 free throw attempts last night, but after the Magic lost their last two games, Howard wasn't able to move up in the rankings.

Close Calls:

Deron Williams, Al Horford, Carmelo Anthony, Carlos Boozer

Rookie of the Year

1. Blake Griffin - LAC - 21.8 pts, 12.7 reb, 3.4 ast (1)

In the only award race where a unanimous vote is likely, Griffin is starting to make a case for entering the MVP race. The last time he didn't record a double-double was Nov. 18 against Indiana, and the Clippers have won 8 of their past 11, including the last 3 in a row, including a huge win that ended Miami's road winning streak on Wednesday.

2. John Wall - WAS - 15.6 pts, 3.6 reb, 8.9 ast (2)

Following a subpar performance against the Nets last Friday, Wall turned up the heat with 3 straight games at or near a double-double. The Wizards have yet to win a road game this year, but Wall sure has them playing well at home lately.

3. Landry Fields - NYK - 10.1 pts, 7.3 reb, 1.9 ast (3)

Fields had 14 points and 10 rebounds in an impressive road win over the Phoenix Suns, then had three more fairly solid games as one of the main members of the Knicks' rotation. If #1 picks were not allowed to win this award, he would run away with it.

4. DeMarcus Cousins - SAC - 12.7 pts, 7.7 reb, 1.7 ast (4)

After having the best week of any rookie not named Blake Griffin last week, Cousins began to drop off a bit this week. He averaged only 12 points and 8 rebounds as the Kings lost 3 straight road games.

5. Eric Bledsoe - LAC - 7.1 pts, 3.1 reb, 4.2 ast (5)

Bledsoe continued his roller-coaster rookie season this week with another low week, finishing with only 5 points and 6 assists in the Clippers' two wins. It's looking like Bledsoe may be saying goodbye to his spot in the rankings next week, with Evan Turner and Wesley Johnson hot on his heels.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Jamal Crawford - ATL - 16.6 pts, 1.9 reb, 3.6 ast (2)

Crawford regained the top spot in the sixth man rankings this week, but not because so many good bench players are being made starters. Crawford scored 36 points against Toronto on Wednesday, his second 30-point effort in as many weeks, and the Hawks have won 5 in a row.

2. Jason Terry - DAL - 15.6 pts, 1.9 reb, 4.5 ast (3)

Terry seems to have finally adjusted to his role without Dirk Nowitzki around, scoring between 16 and 19 points in 5 straight games. His consistency has translated into wins for Dallas, but he's still one of the best bench players in the game.

3. J.R. Smith - DEN - 11.9 pts, 4.2 reb, 2.0 ast (NR)

Smith made 8 three-pointers in last night upset win over Miami, despite having hit only 1 in the previous five games combined. It was his second straight game scoring in double figures, and the second straight game that the Nuggets hit 130.

4. Shawn Marion - DAL - 11.7 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.1 ast (NR)

Marion has really picked up his game since Christmas, but it may have something to do with Nowitzki being out. He has scored in double figures in 7 of his past 8 games, including 25 in a loss to the Thunder last week.

5. Glen Davis - BOS - 12.5 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.3 ast (NR)

Davis has been doing a lot of scoring for the Celtics lately, a product of Kevin Garnett sitting out, but Davis' production should drop off now that KG has returned to the lineup. Davis failed to hit 50% of his shots in any of the past 3 games, which is unacceptable for a big man.

Most Improved Player

Stats shown are difference compared to last season.

1. Dorell Wright - GSW - +9.7 pts, +2.6 reb, +1.6 ast (1)

Wright scored at least 20 points in each of the Warriors' games this week, the first time he's done that this season. He's also hit at least 3 3-pointers in each of the past 4 games, and somehow is still being overlooked by most "experts" for this award.

2. D. J. Augustin - CHA - +7.9 pts, +1.8 reb, +3.9 ast (2)

Augustin averaged 20 points this week while shooting over 50 % and leading the Bobcats to 3 wins, which has extended their season-long streak to 4. He's also currently 5th in the league in free throw percentage, shooting just a hair under 91% for the season.

3. Kevin Love - MIN - +7.5 pts, +4.7 reb, +0.1 ast (3)

As he continues his amazing streak of double-doubles, let's hope the coaches show Kevin a little Love and vote him in as a reserve on the All-Star team, an honor that he undoubtedly deserves, whether his team is good or not.

4. Jrue Holiday - PHI - +6.8 pts, +1.2 reb, +2.9 ast (5)

Jrue has now scored in double figures in 10 straight games for the 76ers, and has passed out at least 10 assists in 3 of those games. Holiday appears to have a great career ahead of him, and the 76ers seem to have finally found a point guard.

5. Nick Young - WAS - +7.3 pts, +1.0 reb, +0.4 ast (NR)

Young has definitely taken advantage of Gilbert Arenas' departure, as evidenced by his 43-point showcase game against the Sacramento Kings. While Young doesn't do much besides score, his jump in points alone is worth noticing.

NBA Player of the Day

Russell Westbrook - OKC - 32 pts, 10 reb, 13 ast, 2 blk, 11-22 FG, 10-13 FT

While I may have spoiled the surprise by announcing his victory earlier, the Thunder sure didn't spoil Westbrook's second triple-double of the season, knocking off the extremely hot Orlando Magic by one point. This triple-double was also less controversial, as Westbrook grabbed his last rebound with 3:14 left and didn't have to push at the end to get it.

Predictions - 14 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Bulls at Pacers - Bulls by 1

Bucks at 76ers - 76ers by 2

Pistons at Raptors - Raptors by 4

Bobcats at Celtics - Celtics by 14

Kings at Knicks - Knicks by 11

Mavericks at Spurs - Spurs by 7

Hornets at Rockets - Rockets by 1

Cavaliers at Jazz - Jazz by 16

Clippers at Warriors - Warriors by 2

Nets at Lakers - Lakers by 15

Trail Blazers at Suns - Suns by 1

Prediction Results - 13 Jan

NBA: 2/3 (.667) 280/391 overall (.716)

College Basketball: 4/6 (.667) 260/311 overall (.836)

Upsets: 1/1 (1.000) 59/102 overall (.578)