College Football Preseason Rankings

For the first time in history, I've decided to release my own version of the preseason rankings. These rankings are still based on my usual formula, which takes margin of victory, strength of schedule, momentum, and home field advantage into account to determine which teams are better than others, but because no games have been played yet this season, I've used last season's final standing as a base, then moved teams around based on how many of their players will be returning for this season. I based these on the player statistics for each player, rather than just a total returning, because you could return most of your players and still lose the three guys who did most of the work. So, here they are, the preseason college football rankings, with team name followed by last year's record and final ranking, along with this season's predicted record and their preseason AP ranking.

Rank - Team - 2010 Record/Rank - 2011 Predicted Record - AP Rank (Preseason)
1. Stanford 12-1 (4) 12-0 (7)
2. Oregon 12-1 (3) 11-1 (3)
3. Boise State 12-1 (9) 12-0 (5)
4. Arizona State 6-6 (NR) 11-1 (28)
5. Alabama 10-3 (10) 10-2 (2)
6. Florida State 10-4 (17) 11-1 (6)
7. Oklahoma 12-2 (6) 10-2 (1)
8. South Carolina 9-5 (22) 10-2 (12)
9. Arkansas 10-3 (12) 10-2 (15)
10. Oklahoma State 11-2 (13) 11-1 (9)
11. Louisiana State 11-2 (8) 9-3 (4)
12. North Carolina State 9-4 (25) 11-1 (34)
13. Florida 8-5 (31) 9-3 (22)
14. Wisconsin 11-2 (7) 11-1 (11)
15. Arizona 7-6 (NR) 7-5 (44)
16. Mississippi State 9-4 (15) 8-4 (20)
17. Southern California 8-5 (NR) 8-4 (25)
18. Virginia Tech 11-3 (16) 12-0 (13)
19. Nebraska 10-4 (20) 11-1 (10)
20. Auburn 14-0 (1) 7-5 (23)
21. Texas A&M 9-4 (19) 10-2 (8)
22. Ohio State 12-1 (5) 11-1 (18)
23. Notre Dame 8-5 (33) 11-1 (16)
24. Northern Illinois 11-3 (29) 11-1 (41)
25. Missouri 10-3 (18) 8-4 (21)

Ranked Teams by Conference

SEC - 7
Pac 12 - 5
Big 12 - 4
ACC - 3
Big 10 - 3
MWC - 1
MAC - 1
Ind - 1

My top three teams each finished last season with just one loss, each to a ranked opponent, and all 3 have their quarterbacks returning this season. I give Stanford the slight edge over Oregon this year, but it should be a tight game, and it will likely determine the Pac-12 title and a spot in the BCS title game.

Arizona State is one of the big surprises on this list, but if you watched my rankings last year, you saw that I had them ranked throughout the season. That's because four of their six losses were by 4 points or less to teams that were or should have been ranked. Five of their six wins were by at least 10 points, with the only exception in the season-ending double overtime victory over rival Arizona. Almost every single player returned this year, and they should surprise a lot of people.

Oklahoma was ranked #1 by many of the preseason polls, but the Big 12 is considerably weaker now with the loss of Nebraska, so they won't have many chances to gain strength of schedule numbers. They play Oklahoma State and Florida State on the road, both of which are very dangerous opponents. I see this as a mistake on the part of the voters.

Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Ohio State are all representing the Big 10 in the preseason rankings, but thanks to the lack of other good teams in the conference, it's quite likely that we will end up with a 3-way tie for the top again this year after they each take turns beating each other. There's no standout team here, but the conference's supposed reputation will keep these three in the conversation for the BCS title game long after they shouldn't be mentioned.

Virginia Tech is ranked #18 in my preseason rankings, yet I have them projected to finish the regular season undefeated. This is not a misprint. They do not have a single ranked team on their schedule, but they will likely face either Florida State or NC State in the ACC Championship game and get totally destroyed, which will leave us with two teams with unblemished records: Stanford and Boise State. We'll see what excuse the BCS uses this year to put someone else up against Stanford.

So there you go, the preseason college football top 25 is complete. Check back soon to see my predictions for the winner's of this weekend's contests, and we'll see if I can improve upon my record from last season.

The Not-so-Big 10

Last month, I wrote an article about the Pac 10's lack of bowl teams and the reasons it happened. In that article I talked about true strength of schedule and perceived strength of schedule, and how different they were. After quoting Ohio State President E. Gordon Gee about the perceived strength of schedule in the Big 10, I pointed out that none of the 3 Big 10 co-champions were in the top half of teams ranked by strength of schedule.

Yesterday, we saw proof of that fact, as two of those three went down in games they were expected to win. Wisconsin lost to TCU, from the non-automatic qualifying Mountain West Conference, a team many said didn't belong in the BCS, despite their perfect record. Michigan State lost to Alabama, who despite being the defending National Champion, lost 3 games this year and was thought by many to be down from last year. Michigan State, who was never in the top 25 of my rankings this season, did not score until there were less than 6 minutes remaining in the game and Alabama was already celebrating the most lopsided win in Capital One Citrus Bowl History.

If these two teams are your champions, how good can the rest of the conference be? Prior to their 3 matchups with the Big 10 yesterday, the SEC had failed to win a single bowl game this season. The Big 12, who has claimed another two victories over the Big 10 this bowl season, also has a losing record in the bowls overall. In fact, the only Automatic Qualifying conferences that currently have a winning bowl record are the Big East and the ACC, who have been the butt of BCS jokes all season long. Meanwhile, the Mountain West is 4-1, including TCU's Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin, and the Sun Belt is a perfect 2-0. It all just goes to show that the talent gap is not as wide in college football as some would have you believe.

NBA Player of the Day

LeBron James - MIA - 25 pts, 7 reb, 10 ast, 7-15 FG, 11-17 FT
On the same day that he said publicly that he didn't expect to win the MVP (see here), LeBron won the Player of the Day award again, marking the fourth straight game that a member of the Heat took that honor. While he may be right in thinking the voters won't select him after a "down" statistical year, he is still the best player on one of the best teams and fully deserves to be considered for MVP.

Predictions - 2 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Pacers at Knicks - Knicks by 4
Hawks at Clippers - Hawks by 2
Celtics at Raptors - Celtics by 8
Mavericks at Cavaliers - Mavericks by 10
Rockets at Trail Blazers - Trail Blazers by 3
Suns at Kings - Suns by 5
Grizzlies at Lakers - Lakers by 8

College Basketball

Miami at (1) Duke - Duke by 24
Miami-Ohio at (3) Kansas - Kansas by 31
Rutgers at (8) Villanova - Villanova by 18
Tennessee State at (22) Memphis - Memphis by 17
Texas Southern at (23) Baylor - Baylor by 21
(24) Wisconsin at (25) Illinois - Illinois by 6
Saint Francis-PA at North Carolina - North Carolina by 31
Davidson at Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt by 16
Arizona at Oregon State - Arizona by 13

Prediction Results - 1 Jan

College Football: 6/6 (1.000) 52/79 overall (.658)
NBA: 7/8 (.875) 224/308 overall (.727)
College Basketball: 3/3 (1.000) 187/219 overall (.854)

The only game I missed yesterday was the Mavericks loss to the Bucks, which happened in part because MVP Candidate Dirk Nowitzki missed the game. I got all 6 bowl games right, and even got pretty close on the margins on most of them.