College Football Preseason Rankings

For the first time in history, I've decided to release my own version of the preseason rankings. These rankings are still based on my usual formula, which takes margin of victory, strength of schedule, momentum, and home field advantage into account to determine which teams are better than others, but because no games have been played yet this season, I've used last season's final standing as a base, then moved teams around based on how many of their players will be returning for this season. I based these on the player statistics for each player, rather than just a total returning, because you could return most of your players and still lose the three guys who did most of the work. So, here they are, the preseason college football rankings, with team name followed by last year's record and final ranking, along with this season's predicted record and their preseason AP ranking.

Rank - Team - 2010 Record/Rank - 2011 Predicted Record - AP Rank (Preseason)
1. Stanford 12-1 (4) 12-0 (7)
2. Oregon 12-1 (3) 11-1 (3)
3. Boise State 12-1 (9) 12-0 (5)
4. Arizona State 6-6 (NR) 11-1 (28)
5. Alabama 10-3 (10) 10-2 (2)
6. Florida State 10-4 (17) 11-1 (6)
7. Oklahoma 12-2 (6) 10-2 (1)
8. South Carolina 9-5 (22) 10-2 (12)
9. Arkansas 10-3 (12) 10-2 (15)
10. Oklahoma State 11-2 (13) 11-1 (9)
11. Louisiana State 11-2 (8) 9-3 (4)
12. North Carolina State 9-4 (25) 11-1 (34)
13. Florida 8-5 (31) 9-3 (22)
14. Wisconsin 11-2 (7) 11-1 (11)
15. Arizona 7-6 (NR) 7-5 (44)
16. Mississippi State 9-4 (15) 8-4 (20)
17. Southern California 8-5 (NR) 8-4 (25)
18. Virginia Tech 11-3 (16) 12-0 (13)
19. Nebraska 10-4 (20) 11-1 (10)
20. Auburn 14-0 (1) 7-5 (23)
21. Texas A&M 9-4 (19) 10-2 (8)
22. Ohio State 12-1 (5) 11-1 (18)
23. Notre Dame 8-5 (33) 11-1 (16)
24. Northern Illinois 11-3 (29) 11-1 (41)
25. Missouri 10-3 (18) 8-4 (21)

Ranked Teams by Conference

SEC - 7
Pac 12 - 5
Big 12 - 4
ACC - 3
Big 10 - 3
MWC - 1
MAC - 1
Ind - 1

My top three teams each finished last season with just one loss, each to a ranked opponent, and all 3 have their quarterbacks returning this season. I give Stanford the slight edge over Oregon this year, but it should be a tight game, and it will likely determine the Pac-12 title and a spot in the BCS title game.

Arizona State is one of the big surprises on this list, but if you watched my rankings last year, you saw that I had them ranked throughout the season. That's because four of their six losses were by 4 points or less to teams that were or should have been ranked. Five of their six wins were by at least 10 points, with the only exception in the season-ending double overtime victory over rival Arizona. Almost every single player returned this year, and they should surprise a lot of people.

Oklahoma was ranked #1 by many of the preseason polls, but the Big 12 is considerably weaker now with the loss of Nebraska, so they won't have many chances to gain strength of schedule numbers. They play Oklahoma State and Florida State on the road, both of which are very dangerous opponents. I see this as a mistake on the part of the voters.

Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Ohio State are all representing the Big 10 in the preseason rankings, but thanks to the lack of other good teams in the conference, it's quite likely that we will end up with a 3-way tie for the top again this year after they each take turns beating each other. There's no standout team here, but the conference's supposed reputation will keep these three in the conversation for the BCS title game long after they shouldn't be mentioned.

Virginia Tech is ranked #18 in my preseason rankings, yet I have them projected to finish the regular season undefeated. This is not a misprint. They do not have a single ranked team on their schedule, but they will likely face either Florida State or NC State in the ACC Championship game and get totally destroyed, which will leave us with two teams with unblemished records: Stanford and Boise State. We'll see what excuse the BCS uses this year to put someone else up against Stanford.

So there you go, the preseason college football top 25 is complete. Check back soon to see my predictions for the winner's of this weekend's contests, and we'll see if I can improve upon my record from last season.