NBA Playoff Odds Update - Conference Finals Midway Point

Phoenix is just one win away from their 3rd Finals appearance in franchise history, while the Bucks took back home court advantage last night in Atlanta, making them a solid favorite to make it there as well. Here are the updated odds for each of the remaining 4 teams:

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(2) Suns - 87.4% (+23.9)

(3) Bucks - 83.1% (+12.9)

(5) Hawks - 16.9% (-12.9)

(4) Clippers - 12.6% (-23.9)

Fun Fact: Milwaukee and Phoenix are expansion twins, both being added to the league in 1968. The Bucks won their only title exactly 50 years ago, while the Suns are still looking for their first.

Odds of Winning NBA Championship

(2) Suns - 52.8% (+11.9)

(3) Bucks - 35.4% (+7.4)

(4) Clippers - 8.1% (-16.3)

(5) Hawks - 3.6% (-3.1)

Fun Fact: The longest playoff drought right before an NBA Championship is 6 years, set in 1977 by Portland when they won their only title with Bill Walton, and tied last season by the Lakers. Phoenix's 11-year drought heading into this season would obliterate the old mark.

NBA Playoff Odds Update - Conference Finals

The final four teams are set, and they include one each of seeds 2 through 5, with both 1 seeds falling in the past few days. Here are the updated odds for each of the 4 remaining teams, with the change since Thursday in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(3) Bucks - 70.2% (+54.5)

(2) Suns - 63.5% (+18.3)

(4) Clippers - 36.5% (+0.4)

(5) Hawks - 29.8% (+8.7)

The Clippers' odds barely moved after beating Utah but then losing Game 1 to Phoenix. Milwaukee won 2 straight against Brooklyn and got lucky with a matchup against Atlanta, giving them unexpected home court advantage as well.

Odds of Winning Championship

(2) Suns - 40.9% (+11.7)

(3) Bucks - 28.0% (+22.3)

(4) Clippers - 24.4% (+0.9)

(5) Hawks - 6.7% (+2.3)

Phoenix has moved into a tier of their own as the highest remaining seed holding home court the rest of the way, and Atlanta continues their slow and steady climb.

NBA Playoff Odds Update Once Again

For the first time in months, Utah does not have the best odds of winning the title after falling behind 3-2 in their series against the Clippers. The next 2 (and up to 4) days will be nothing but elimination games, which will shift the odds around a bit once a few more teams go on vacation. Here are the current odds, with change since Tuesday in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(2) Nets - 74.0% (+24.3)

(4) Clippers - 70.5% (+30.5)

(5) Hawks - 64.4% (+31.7)

(1) 76ers - 35.6% (-31.7)

(1) Jazz - 29.5% (-30.5)

(3) Bucks - 26.0% (-24.3)

All three teams that won over the past 2 days were underdogs in the odds before those games, but are now favorites to move on.

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(2) Suns - 45.2% (+3.8)

(2) Nets - 43.2% (+18.3)

(4) Clippers - 36.1% (+16.0)

(5) Hawks - 21.1% (+10.8)

(1) 76ers - 20.1% (-17.8)

(1) Jazz - 18.7% (-19.8)

(3) Bucks - 15.7% (-11.1)

The #1 seeds have made it very hard on themselves, with both needing to win 2 in a row just to reach the Conference Finals, then a full series against a very good team just to reach the Finals.

Odds of Winning Championship

(2) Suns - 29.2% (+3.7)

(4) Clippers - 23.5% (+11.2)

(2) Nets - 15.1% (+7.1)

(1) Jazz - 14.0% (-14.3)

(1) 76ers - 8.1% (-6.5)

(3) Bucks - 5.7% (-3.6)

(5) Hawks - 4.4% (+2.4)

The Clippers saw a huge jump in their odds after they moved within a game of their first-ever Conference Finals appearance, but they still sit behind Phoenix in the overall odds thanks to home court advantage.

Yet Another NBA Playoff Odds Update

There are now 3 second round series tied at 2, with one that has already been completed, so the conference Finals won't be starting until sometime next week. With three underdogs winning in the last couple days to even up series, it's moved the odds in each round even closer together, leaving the playoffs even more wide open than they had already been. Here are the updated odds:

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(1) 76ers - 67.3% (-15.8)

(1) Jazz - 60.0% (-18.0)

(3) Bucks - 50.3% (+18.0)

(2) Nets - 49.7% (-18.0)

(4) Clippers - 40.0% (-18.0)

(5) Hawks - 32.7% (+15.8)

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(2) Suns - 41.4% (+4.8)

(1) Jazz - 38.5% (-13.3)

(1) 76ers - 37.9% (-9.5)

(3) Bucks - 26.8% (+11.2)

(2) Nets - 24.9% (-6.8)

(4) Clippers - 20.1% (+9.1)

(5) Hawks - 10.3% (+5.0)

Odds of Winning Championship

(1) Jazz - 28.3% (-9.7)

(2) Suns - 25.5% (+3.6)

(1) 76ers - 14.6% (-3.0)

(4) Clippers - 12.3% (+5.9)

(3) Bucks - 9.3% (+4.3)

(2) Nets - 8.0% (-1.9)

(5) Hawks - 2.0% (+1.1)

Utah is still the overall favorite to win the title, but Phoenix has nearly pulled even with the #1 overall seed, while the Clippers have also pulled almost even with the top seed from the East.

Rest vs. Rust in the NBA Playoffs

With the Phoenix Suns finishing off their sweep of Denver last night, and at least 2 games remaining in every other series, the Suns are going to be getting a little time off, which led to the question of whether there is a limit to how much rest is good for a team in the playoffs, and which team the Suns should be rooting for during the remainder of the other Western Conference semifinal series between the Jazz and the Clippers. I went back through the entire playoff history of the NBA to find every instance where a team had at least 3 days more rest than their opponent to try to figure out what the historical odds say.

First of all, there have been 207 cases in NBA history where one team has at least 3 days more rest than their opponent. In those series, the team with more rest has won that series 68.6% of the time, which is a good sign for Phoenix. But, when you break it down by whether the team with more rest had home court advantage, you see that home court makes a huge difference.

Among all series in NBA playoff history, the higher seed has won 73.6% of the time, which goes to show that home court advantage is important, although a good chunk of that win percentage can also be attributed to the better team being awarded the home court advantage. When the higher seed also has at least 3 days more rest, their win percentage jumps up to 80.8%, while the win percentage for lower seeds with more rest increases from 26.4% to 35.7%. This means that overall, having significantly more rest than your opponent increases your overall odds of winning a series by about 8%.

There is also the question of how those odds change based on the length of the difference in rest. For cases where the higher seed has more rest, the odds peak at around 5 days more rest, then decline slightly as the rest difference reaches 7, then climbs sharply once the difference exceeds a week (although most cases where this has happened were during seasons where top seeds were awarded a first-round bye, which hasn't been the case since 1983). For lower seeds, the odds continue to increase with every extra day of rest.

So, what does that mean when applied to Phoenix's current situation? It means that the optimal situation for Phoenix would be for the LA Clippers to win their series in 6 games, which would require them to win the next 3 games in a row, in the process achieving something never done in franchise history, a berth in the conference finals. The remaining scenarios, in order from best to worst for Phoenix, would be Clippers in 7, Jazz in 7, Jazz in 6, and Jazz in 5, meaning that the more wins for the Clippers, the better for Phoenix.

Another NBA Playoff Odds Update

There have been 5 more NBA playoff games in the last 3 days, and all 4 series are now 3 games in, with 3 series standing at 2-1 and the Suns up 3-0 on the Nuggets. In parentheses you will see each team's change in odds since Thursday morning.

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(2) Suns - 97.1% (+8.6)

(1) 76ers - 83.1% (+17.0)

(1) Jazz - 78.0% (-1.8)

(2) Nets - 67.7% (-11.9)

(3) Bucks - 32.3% (+11.9)

(4) Clippers - 22.0% (+1.8)

(5) Hawks - 16.9% (-17.0)

(3) Nuggets - 2.9% (-8.6)

No team has ever come back from down 3-0 in the NBA, but that doesn't mean it's impossible. It is, however, highly unlikely, and the Suns could finish off that series this afternoon.

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(1) Jazz - 51.8% (-4.4)

(1) 76ers - 47.4% (+10.5)

(2) Suns - 36.6% (+5.5)

(2) Nets - 31.7% (-9.4)

(3) Bucks - 15.6% (+4.8)

(4) Clippers - 11.0% (+0.8)

(5) Hawks - 5.3% (-5.8)

(3) Nuggets - 0.6% (-1.9)

Philly's odds have improved the most here after taking back home court advantage from Atlanta, coupled with Brooklyn losing a game to bring both series to the same 2-1 lead.

Odds of Winning Championship

(1) Jazz - 38.0% (-5.1)

(2) Suns - 21.9% (+3.1)

(1) 76ers - 17.6% (+4.6)

(2) Nets - 9.9% (-2.8)

(4) Clippers - 6.4% (+0.4)

(3) Bucks - 5.0% (+1.6)

(5) Hawks - 0.9% (-1.1)

(3) Nuggets - 0.3% (-0.8)

Phoenix and Philadelphia made good moves upward here, and took some of that from the Jazz, who are under 40% odds to win it all for the first time this postseason. 

NBA Playoffs Odds Update Again

 After 7 second round games, there has been a bit of a shift in the odds due to some surprising outcomes, so I'm updating my odds again here in the middle of the round. Change in odds since Saturday morning in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(2) Suns - 88.5% (+27.9)

(1) Jazz - 79.8% (+3.3)

(2) Nets - 79.6% (+36.5)

(1) 76ers - 66.1% (-4.3)

(5) Hawks - 33.9% (+4.3)

(3) Bucks - 20.4% (-36.5)

(4) Clippers - 20.2% (-0.2)

(3) Nuggets - 11.5% (-27.9)

The Suns and Nets have started out with 2 blowouts each, giving each a huge boost in their odds to win this round. The Hawks' odds have improved, but they are still more likely to lose than not.

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(1) Jazz - 56.2% (-1.0)

(2) Nets - 41.1% (+20.5)

(1) 76ers - 36.9% (-1.4)

(2) Suns - 31.1% (+10.5)

(5) Hawks - 11.1% (+1.5)

(3) Bucks - 10.8% (-20.8)

(4) Clippers - 10.2% (-1.0)

(3) Nuggets - 2.5% (-7.7)

Only 3 teams have increased their odds of reaching the Finals in the past few days, with Milwaukee and Denver plummeting due to 0-2 deficits.

Odds of Winning Championship

(1) Jazz - 43.1% (-0.4)

(2) Suns - 18.8% (+7.2)

(1) 76ers - 13.0% (-1.0)

(2) Nets - 12.7% (+6.5)

(4) Clippers - 6.0% (-0.4)

(3) Bucks - 3.4% (-8.1)

(5) Hawks - 2.0% (+0.1)

(3) Nuggets - 1.1% (-3.6)

Phoenix got the biggest bump here, moving ahead of Philly for the second-best odds of winning it all, while Brooklyn jumped ahead of a couple teams themselves.

NBA Playoff Odds Update

 The first round of the playoffs is almost over, with just one game remaining tomorrow, but the second round is starting today, so I'm going to post my updated odds for each of the 9 remaining teams today. In the first round so far, I picked all 7 winners correctly, though I was off on the number of games in every series, almost always by one game. 

Odds of Winning First Round

Clippers - 67.4% (-12.2)

Mavericks - 32.6% (+12.2)

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(1) Jazz - 76.5% (+8.1)

(1) 76ers - 70.4% (+5.0)

(2) Suns - 60.6% (+14.5)

(3) Bucks - 56.9% (+5.9)

(2) Nets - 43.1% (+7.7)

(3) Nuggets - 39.4% (+4.7)

(5) Hawks - 29.6% (+12.3)

(4) Clippers - 20.4% (-7.2)

(5) Mavericks - 3.1% (+0.5)

Only the Clippers' odds have dropped here, because their chance of reaching the second round is lower than before, while the other teams have already made it. Phoenix saw the greatest jump in odds after knocking off the defending champs.

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(1) Jazz - 57.2% (+3.9)

(1) 76ers - 38.3% (-0.4)

(3) Bucks - 31.6% (+3.4)

(2) Suns - 20.57% (+4.6)

(2) Nets - 20.56% (+3.4)

(4) Clippers - 11.2% (-5.5)

(3) Nuggets - 10.2% (+0.3)

(5) Hawks - 9.6% (+3.1)

(5) Mavericks - 0.8% (no change)

Philly's odds dropped slightly after Milwaukee dominated their first round series completely, while the 76ers may have lost Joel Embiid. Phoenix once again has the biggest increase here.

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

(1) Jazz - 43.5% (+1.2)

(1) 76ers - 14.0% (no change)

(2) Suns - 11.6% (+2.0)

(3) Bucks - 11.5% (+1.9)

(5) Clippers - 6.4% (-4.1)

(2) Nets - 6.2% (+1.3)

(3) Nuggets - 4.7% (-0.4)

(5) Hawks - 1.9% (+0.6)

(5) Mavericks - 0.2% (-0.1)

Phoenix and Milwaukee had the best performances of the first round, and it gave them each a good boost on their overall title odds, but Utah is still the runaway favorite to win it all.

I'm not changing any of my picks from before the playoffs, so I still have Jazz over Bucks in the NBA Finals, after they defeat the Suns and Sixers respectively in the Conference Finals.