NBA Playoff Odds

Now that the play in tournament is over, and the 16 teams are set, I have gone through every possible playoff matchup to determine how each team would fare against any other, how likely they are to meet and when that would be, also factoring in which team would have home court advantage, to determine each team's odds of advancing through this season's playoffs and winning the title. Here is my breakdown, followed by my own picks at the bottom:

Odds of Winning First Round

(1) Jazz - 93.4%

(1) 76ers - 91.1%

(3) Bucks - 82.5%

(4) Clippers - 79.6%

(2) Suns - 72.3%

(3) Nuggets - 71.8%

(2) Nets - 70.7%

(5) Hawks - 51.4%

(4) Knicks - 48.6%

(7) Celtics - 29.3%

(6) Trail Blazers - 28.2%

(7) Lakers - 27.7%

(5) Mavericks - 20.4%

(6) Heat - 17.5%

(8) Wizards - 8.9%

(8) Grizzlies - 6.6%

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(1) Jazz - 68.4%

(1) 76ers - 65.4%

(3) Bucks - 51.0%

(2) Suns - 46.1%

(2) Nets - 35.4%

(3) Nuggets - 34.7%

(4) Clippers - 27.6%

(5) Hawks - 17.3%

(4) Knicks - 15.3%

(7) Lakers - 11.1%

(7) Celtics - 8.6%

(6) Trail Blazers - 8.1%

(6) Heat - 5.0%

(5) Mavericks - 2.6%

(8) Wizards - 1.9%

(8) Grizzlies - 1.4%

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(1) Jazz - 53.3%

(1) 76ers - 38.7%

(3) Bucks - 28.2%

(2) Nets - 17.2%

(4) Clippers - 16.7%

(2) Suns - 16.0%

(3) Nuggets - 9.9%

(5) Hawks - 6.5%

(4) Knicks - 5.4%

(7) Celtics - 2.5%

(7) Lakers - 1.9%

(6) Heat - 1.13%

(6) Trail Blazers - 1.08%

(5) Mavericks - 0.8%

(8) Grizzlies - 0.33%

(8) Wizards - 0.27%

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

(1) Jazz - 42.3%

(1) 76ers - 14.0%

(4) Clippers - 10.5%

(3) Bucks - 9.574%

(2) Suns - 9.567%

(3) Nuggets - 5.1%

(2) Nets - 4.9%

(5) Hawks - 1.3%

(4) Knicks - 1.0%

(7) Lakers - 0.7%

(7) Celtics - 0.4%

(6) Trail Blazers - 0.33%

(5) Mavericks - 0.26%

(6) Heat - 0.11%

(8) Grizzlies - 0.08%

(8) Wizards - 0.01%

My Picks

First Round

(1) 76ers over (8) Wizards in 4

(2) Nets over (7) Celtics in 4

(3) Bucks over (6) Heat in 5

(5) Hawks over (4) Knicks in 7

(1) Jazz over (8) Grizzlies in 4

(2) Suns over (7) Lakers in 5

(3) Nuggets over (6) Trail Blazers in 5

(4) Clippers over (5) Mavericks in 6

Second Round

(1) 76ers over (5) Hawks in 5

(3) Bucks over (2) Nets in 5

(1) Jazz over (4) Clippers in 5

(2) Suns over (3) Nuggets in 7

Conference Finals

(3) Bucks over (1) 76ers in 6

(1) Jazz over (2) Suns in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Jazz over (3) Bucks in 5

NBA Play In Odds

The NBA Play In Tournament starts tomorrow, with 8 teams competing for the bottom 4 playoff spots, including the defending champions in LA. Here is my breakdown of each team's odds of getting each seed and continuing on into the real postseason:

Odds of earning 7 Seed

A team will earn the 7 seed by winning the 7-8 games that will take place on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Celtics - 63.3%

Lakers - 58.0 %

Warriors - 42.0%

Wizards - 36.7%

Odds of earning 8 Seed

The loser of the 7-8 games will host the winner of the 9-10 games, with the winner of that game earning each 8 seed.

Warriors - 33.5%

Wizards - 32.3%

Pacers - 28.1%

Lakers - 26.2%

Grizzlies - 26.2%

Celtics - 22.4%

Hornets - 17.2%

Spurs - 14.2%

My Picks

Celtics over Wizards - Celtics earn 7 seed

Warriors over Lakers - Warriors earn 7 seed

Hornets over Pacers

Grizzlies over Spurs

Wizards over Hornets - Wizards earn 8 seed

Lakers over Grizzlies - Lakers earn 8 seed

NBA Predictions - 16 May

Upset picks are in italics.

Boston at New York - Knicks by 2

Indiana at Toronto - Raptors by 1

Charlotte at Washington - Wizards by 1

Phoenix at San Antonio - Suns by 5.5

Memphis at Golden State - Warriors by 1

Houston at Atlanta - Hawks by 10

Cleveland at Brooklyn - Nets by 12

Orlando at Philadelphia - 76ers by 13.5

Miami at Detroit - Heat by 3

Milwaukee at Chicago - Bucks by 5

Dallas at Minnesota - Mavericks by 6.5

LA Lakers at New Orleans - Lakers by 2

LA Clippers at Oklahoma City - Clippers by 14

Denver at Portland - Nuggets by 2.5

Utah at Sacramento - Jazz by 10

Results

NBA: 6-0 (1.000) 650-412 overall (.612)

Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 78-118 overall (.398)

NBA Predictions - 15 May

Upset picks are in italics.

Chicago at Brooklyn - Nets by 5.5

LA Lakers at Indiana - Lakers by 2

Charlotte at New York - Knicks by 4.5

Phoenix at San Antonio - Suns by 5

Boston at Minnesota - Celtics by 5

Miami at Milwaukee - Bucks by 5.5

Results

NBA: 7-1 (.875) 644-412 overall (.610)

Upsets: 76-118 overall (.392)

NBA Predictions - 14 May

Upset picks are in italics.

Cleveland at Washington - Wizards by 6

Denver at Detroit - Nuggets by 7.5

Orlando at Philadelphia - 76ers by 13.5

Utah at Oklahoma City - Jazz by 15.5

Toronto at Dallas - Mavericks by 4

LA Clippers at Houston - Clippers by 12.5

Sacramento at Memphis - Grizzlies by 5

New Orleans at Golden State - Warriors by 2.5

Results

NBA: 8-1 (.889) 637-411 overall (.608)

Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 76-118 overall (.392)

NBA Predictions - 13 May

Upset picks are in italics.

LA Clippers at Charlotte - Clippers by 7

Milwaukee at Indiana - Bucks by 4

Orlando at Atlanta - Hawks by 10.5

Philadelphia at Miami - 76ers by 4

San Antonio at New York - Knicks by 3.5

Toronto at Chicago - Bulls by 0.5

Sacramento at Memphis - Grizzlies by 5

Denver at Minnesota - Nuggets by 8.5

Portland at Phoenix - Suns by 4.5

Results

NBA: 4-2 (.667) 629-410 overall (.605)

Upsets: 76-117 overall (.394)

NBA Predictions - 12 May

Upset picks are in italics.

Washington at Atlanta - Hawks by 4.5

San Antonio at Brooklyn - Nets by 5

Boston at Cleveland - Celtics by 7.5

New Orleans at Dallas - Mavericks by 3

Portland at Utah - Jazz by 8

Houston at LA Lakers - Lakers by 10.5

Results

NBA: 6-5 (.545) 625-408 overall (.605)

Upsets: 0-2 (.000) 76-117 overall (.394)

NBA Predictions - 11 May

Upset picks are in italics.

Denver at Charlotte - Nuggets by 5

Minnesota at Detroit - Pistons by 2.5

Miami at Boston - Celtics by 2.5

LA Clippers at Toronto - Clippers by 5.5

Philadelphia at Indiana - 76ers by 5

Brooklyn at Chicago - Nets by 3.5

Dallas at Memphis - Mavericks by 1

Orlando at Milwaukee - Bucks by 13

Phoenix at Golden State - Suns by 3.5

Oklahoma City at Sacramento - Kings by 6.5

New York at LA Lakers - Lakers by 1.5

Results

NBA: 4-2 (.667) 619-403 overall (.606)

Upsets: 76-115 overall (.398)

NBA Predictions - 10 May

Upset picks are in italics.

Indiana at Cleveland - Pacers by 7.5

Washington at Atlanta - Hawks by 5

New Orleans at Memphis - Grizzlies by 1.5

Milwaukee at San Antonio - Bucks by 5.5

Utah at Golden State - Jazz by 6.5

Houston at Portland - Trail Blazers by 9.5

Results

NBA: 5-3 (.625) 615-401 overall (.605)

Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 76-115 overall (.398)

NBA Predictions - 9 May

Upset picks are in italics.

Miami at Boston - Celtics by 2.5

New York at LA Clippers - Clippers by 5

New Orleans at Charlotte - Pelicans by 0.5

Dallas at Cleveland - Mavericks by 8.5

Minnesota at Orlando - Timberwolves by 0.5

Chicago at Detroit - Bulls by 1.5

Phoenix at LA Lakers - Suns by 2.5

Oklahoma City at Sacramento - Kings by 6

Results

NBA: 4-3 (.571) 610-398 overall (.605)

Upsets: 0-3 (.000) 75-114 overall (.397)

NBA Rankings - 8 May

The hottest team over the past two weeks has been the Portland Trail Blazers, who have won 6 of 7 to move up into 6th place in the West, which would keep them out of the playin tournament, and gave them the tiebreaker over the Lakers, who are projected to end up tied with Portland. Those Lakers have been one of the coldest teams lately, winning only twice in their past 10 games, one of which was over Orlando, who gave up on the season long ago. Another cold team has been Utah, who were somehow swept by Minnesota in their season series, but are still the top team in the rankings because of the huge lead they had built up from their long hot streak earlier in the season. Here are my current rankings and playoff picks:

				Record		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	1	Utah	-8.248	49	18	53	19	W1
2	2	LA Clippers	-5.933	45	22	49	23	W3
3	3	Phoenix	-5.272	48	19	51	21	W2
4	5	Philadelphia	-5.007	46	21	50	22	E1
5	4	Milwaukee	-4.867	43	24	47	25	E2
6	6	Denver	-4.493	44	23	47	25	W4
7	7	Brooklyn	-3.263	43	24	46	26	E3
8	8	LA Lakers	-2.026	37	30	40	32	W7
9	12	Dallas	-1.973	39	28	42	30	W5
10	9	Atlanta	-1.937	37	31	40	32	E5
11	13	New York	-1.657	37	30	40	32	E4
12	10	Boston	-1.32	35	32	38	34	E6
13	19	Portland	-0.758	38	29	40	32	W6
14	14	Golden State	-0.439	34	33	37	35	W8
15	11	Memphis	-0.357	33	33	36	36	W9
16	18	New Orleans	0.217	30	37	32	40
17	15	Toronto	0.285	27	40	29	43	OUT
18	17	Miami	0.419	36	31	38	34	E7
19	16	Indiana	0.735	31	35	34	38	E9
20	20	San Antonio	1.023	32	34	34	38	W10
21	21	Chicago	1.267	28	39	30	42
22	22	Charlotte	1.667	33	34	35	37	E8
23	23	Washington	2.044	31	36	33	39	E10
24	25	Sacramento	3.39	29	38	31	41
25	24	Detroit	3.563	20	47	22	50
26	27	Minnesota	5.839	20	47	22	50
27	26	Cleveland	7.199	21	46	22	50
28	28	Orlando	7.203	21	46	22	50
29	29	Houston	7.508	16	51	17	55
30	30	Oklahoma City	8.149	21	46	22	50

Playoff Picks

Play In

(7) Lakers over (8) Warriors

(9) Grizzlies over (10) Spurs

(8) Warriors over (9) Grizzlies

(7) Heat over (8) Hornets

(10) Wizards over (9) Pacers

(8) Hornets over (10) Wizards

First Round

(1) Jazz over (8) Warriors in 5

(2) Suns over (7) Lakers in 5

(3) Clippers over (6) Trail Blazers in 5

(4) Nuggets over (5) Mavericks in 7

(1) 76ers over (8) Hornets in 4

(2) Bucks over (7) Heat in 6

(3) Nets over (6) Celtics in 6

(4) Knicks over (5) Hawks in 6

Second Round

(1) Jazz over (4) Nuggets in 6

(2) Suns over (3) Clippers in 7

(1) 76ers over (4) Knicks in 5

(2) Bucks over (3) Nets in 6

Conference Finals

(2) Suns over (1) Jazz in 7

(2) Bucks over (1) 76ers in 7

NBA Finals

(2) Suns over (2) Bucks in 7

NBA Predictions - 8 May

Upset picks are in italics.

Washington at Indiana - Pacers by 2.5

Detroit at Philadelphia - 76ers by 9.5

Memphis at Toronto - Raptors by 0.5

Brooklyn at Denver - Nuggets by 2

Houston at Utah - Jazz by 16.5

Oklahoma City at Golden State - Warriors by 9.5

San Antonio at Portland - Trail Blazers by 2.5

Results

NBA: 8-2 (.800) 606-395 overall (.605)

Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 75-111 overall (.403)

NBA Predictions - 7 May

Upset picks are in italics.

New Orleans at Philadelphia - 76ers by 6

Boston at Chicago - Celtics by 2.5

Orlando at Charlotte - Hornets by 6

Minnesota at Miami - Heat by 6

Houston at Milwaukee - Bucks by 13.5

Cleveland at Dallas - Mavericks by 9.5

Denver at Utah - Jazz by 4.5

New York at Phoenix - Suns by 4

LA Lakers at Portland - Lakers by 0.5

San Antonio at Sacramento - Spurs by 1.5

Results

NBA: 2-5 (.286) 598-393 overall (.603)

Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 75-110 overall (.405)

NBA Predictions - 6 May

Upset picks are in italics.

Chicago at Charlotte - Hornets by 1

Brooklyn at Dallas - Nets by 1

Washington at Toronto - Raptors by 2.5

Memphis at Detroit - Grizzlies by 3.5

Atlanta at Indiana - Hawks by 2

Oklahoma City at Golden State - Warriors by 9

LA Lakers at LA Clippers - Clippers by 4

Results

NBA: 7-2 (.778) 596-388 overall (.606)

Upsets: 75-109 overall (.408)

NBA Predictions - 5 May

Upset picks are in italics.

Boston at Orlando - Celtics by 7.5

Portland at Cleveland - Trail Blazers by 6.5

Phoenix at Atlanta - Suns by 3

Sacramento at Indiana - Pacers by 3.5

Philadelphia at Houston - 76ers by 11.5

Washington at Milwaukee - Bucks by 8

Memphis at Minnesota - Grizzlies by 5.5

New York at Denver - Nuggets by 4

San Antonio at Utah - Jazz by 9.5

Results

NBA: 7-0 (1.000) 589-386 overall (.604)

Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 75-109 overall (.408)

NBA Predictions - 4 May

Upset picks are in italics.

Phoenix at Cleveland - Suns by 11.5

Charlotte at Detroit - Hornets by 1.5

Brooklyn at Milwaukee - Bucks by 2.5

Dallas at Miami - Mavericks by 1

Golden State at New Orleans - Pelicans by 0.5

Sacramento at Oklahoma City - Kings by 3.5

Toronto at LA Clippers - Clippers by 6.5

Results

NBA: 4-4 (.500) 582-386 overall (.601)

Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 74-109 overall (.404)

NBA Predictions - 3 May

Upset picks are in italics.

Orlando at Detroit - Pistons by 4

Indiana at Washington - Pacers by 1

Golden State at New Orleans - Pelicans by 0.5

Portland at Atlanta - Falcons by 2

Philadelphia at Chicago - 76ers by 6

New York at Memphis - Knicks by 0.5

San Antonio at Utah - Jazz by 9.5

Denver at LA Lakers - Nuggets by 1.5

Results

NBA: 4-4 (.500) 578-382 overall (.602)

Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 73-108 overall (.403)

NBA Predictions - 2 May

Upset picks are in italics.

Brooklyn at Milwaukee - Bucks by 2.5

Portland at Boston - Celtics by 2

Phoenix at Oklahoma City - Suns by 12.5

Miami at Charlotte - Hornets by 0.5

Sacramento at Dallas - Mavericks by 6.5

New York at Houston - Knicks by 8

Philadelphia at San Antonio - 76ers by 5

Toronto at LA Lakers - Lakers by 3.5

Results

NBA: 8-2 (.800) 574-378 overall (.603)

Upsets: 73-107 overall (.406)

NBA MVP Rankings - 1 May

So far, so good for Nikola Jokic, whose Denver Nuggets haven't fallen off at all since losing Jamal Murray for the season, thanks to continued phenomenal play from the big man. A few players who have missed a lot of time or whose teams have failed to move up into playoff contention have dropped this week, paving the way for several players who have their teams outplaying expectations. Here are my full current MVP rankings, with previous rank in parentheses:

Most Valuable Player

1 (1) Nikola Jokic - C - DEN

26.2 Pts (#11), 10.9 Reb (#9), 8.6 Ast (#6), 1.4 Stl (#16), 0.7 Blk

.568 FG% (#13), .414 3P%, .855 FT%

2 (2) Giannis Antetokounmpo - PF - MIL

28.0 Pts (#5), 11.2 Reb (#8), 5.9 Ast, 1.2 Stl, 1.2 Blk (#13)

.568 FG% (#14), .305 3P%, .684 FT%

3 (4) Luka Doncic - PG - DAL

28.6 Pts (#3), 7.9 Reb, 8.7 Ast (#3), 1.0 Stl, 0.6 Blk

.485 FG%, .359 3P%, .730 FT%

4 (6) Stephen Curry - PG - GSW

31.3 Pts (#1), 5.5 Reb, 5.8 Ast, 1.2 Stl, 0.1 Blk

.487 FG%, .426 3P% (#13), .920 FT% (#6)

5 (NR) Russell Westbrook - PG - WAS

21.6 Pts, 11.2 Reb (#7), 11.0 Ast (#1), 1.3 Stl, 0.3 Blk

.436 FG%, .309 3P%, .635 FT%

6 (8) Damian Lillard - PG - POR

28.3 Pts (#4), 4.2 Reb, 7.5 Ast (#7), 0.9 Stl, 0.3 Blk

.435 FG%, .378 3P%, .926 FT% (#4)

7 (NR) Trae Young - PG - ATL

25.4 Pts (#14), 3.9 Reb, 9.5 Ast (#2), 0.9 Stl, 0.2 Blk

.431 FG%, .356 3P%, .877 FT%

8 (NR) Chris Paul - PG - PHX

16.2 Pts, 4.6 Reb, 8.7 Ast (#4), 1.4 Stl (#14), 0.2 Blk

.494 FG%, .384 3P%, .932 FT% (#2)

9 (NR) Rudy Gobert - C - UTA

14.3 Pts, 13.4 Reb (#2), 1.3 Ast, 0.5 Stl, 2.8 Blk (#2)

.677 FG% (#1), .622 FT%

10 (NR) Kyrie Irving - PG - BKN

26.9 Pts (#7), 4.9 Reb, 6.3 Ast (#16), 1.3 Stl, 0.6 Blk

.502 FG%, .384 3P%, .924 FT% (#5)

Honorable Mention

Julius Randle - PF - NYK

Devin Booker - SG - PHX

Nikola Vucevic - C - CHI

Donovan Mitchell - PG - UTA

Zion Williamson - PF - NOP

NBA Predictions - 1 May

Upset picks are in italics.

Detroit at Charlotte - Hornets by 3

Golden State at Houston - Warriors by 6

Chicago at Atlanta - Hawks by 4

Miami at Cleveland - Heat by 5

Memphis at Orlando - Grizzlies by 7.5

New Orleans at Minnesota - Pelicans by 5

Indiana at Oklahoma City - Pacers by 6

Washington at Dallas - Mavericks by 5.5

Toronto at Utah - Jazz by 9.5

Denver at LA Clippers - Clippers by 2.5

Results

NBA: 5-3 (.625) 566-376 overall (.601)

Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 73-107 overall (.406)