Now that the play in tournament is over, and the 16 teams are set, I have gone through every possible playoff matchup to determine how each team would fare against any other, how likely they are to meet and when that would be, also factoring in which team would have home court advantage, to determine each team's odds of advancing through this season's playoffs and winning the title. Here is my breakdown, followed by my own picks at the bottom:
Odds of Winning First Round
(1) Jazz - 93.4%
(1) 76ers - 91.1%
(3) Bucks - 82.5%
(4) Clippers - 79.6%
(2) Suns - 72.3%
(3) Nuggets - 71.8%
(2) Nets - 70.7%
(5) Hawks - 51.4%
(4) Knicks - 48.6%
(7) Celtics - 29.3%
(6) Trail Blazers - 28.2%
(7) Lakers - 27.7%
(5) Mavericks - 20.4%
(6) Heat - 17.5%
(8) Wizards - 8.9%
(8) Grizzlies - 6.6%
Odds of Reaching Conference Finals
(1) Jazz - 68.4%
(1) 76ers - 65.4%
(3) Bucks - 51.0%
(2) Suns - 46.1%
(2) Nets - 35.4%
(3) Nuggets - 34.7%
(4) Clippers - 27.6%
(5) Hawks - 17.3%
(4) Knicks - 15.3%
(7) Lakers - 11.1%
(7) Celtics - 8.6%
(6) Trail Blazers - 8.1%
(6) Heat - 5.0%
(5) Mavericks - 2.6%
(8) Wizards - 1.9%
(8) Grizzlies - 1.4%
Odds of Reaching NBA Finals
(1) Jazz - 53.3%
(1) 76ers - 38.7%
(3) Bucks - 28.2%
(2) Nets - 17.2%
(4) Clippers - 16.7%
(2) Suns - 16.0%
(3) Nuggets - 9.9%
(5) Hawks - 6.5%
(4) Knicks - 5.4%
(7) Celtics - 2.5%
(7) Lakers - 1.9%
(6) Heat - 1.13%
(6) Trail Blazers - 1.08%
(5) Mavericks - 0.8%
(8) Grizzlies - 0.33%
(8) Wizards - 0.27%
Odds of Winning NBA Finals
(1) Jazz - 42.3%
(1) 76ers - 14.0%
(4) Clippers - 10.5%
(3) Bucks - 9.574%
(2) Suns - 9.567%
(3) Nuggets - 5.1%
(2) Nets - 4.9%
(5) Hawks - 1.3%
(4) Knicks - 1.0%
(7) Lakers - 0.7%
(7) Celtics - 0.4%
(6) Trail Blazers - 0.33%
(5) Mavericks - 0.26%
(6) Heat - 0.11%
(8) Grizzlies - 0.08%
(8) Wizards - 0.01%
My Picks
First Round
(1) 76ers over (8) Wizards in 4
(2) Nets over (7) Celtics in 4
(3) Bucks over (6) Heat in 5
(5) Hawks over (4) Knicks in 7
(1) Jazz over (8) Grizzlies in 4
(2) Suns over (7) Lakers in 5
(3) Nuggets over (6) Trail Blazers in 5
(4) Clippers over (5) Mavericks in 6
Second Round
(1) 76ers over (5) Hawks in 5
(3) Bucks over (2) Nets in 5
(1) Jazz over (4) Clippers in 5
(2) Suns over (3) Nuggets in 7
Conference Finals
(3) Bucks over (1) 76ers in 6
(1) Jazz over (2) Suns in 7
NBA Finals
(1) Jazz over (3) Bucks in 5
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