NCAA Football Preseason Rankings

A whole new season of college football is starting next week, and though there have been a lot of changes throughout the country, a couple of things never seem to change, those being the two teams at the top, Clemson and Alabama. I have analyzed every team's roster, depth chart, and schedule and used them to adjust their final ranking from last season to determine their preseason rank and projected final regular season record.

The defending champs start out at #1, and they should finish there as well, as they are projected as the only team to finish undefeated, with a 91.6% chance of that happening, which is the highest I have ever seen in my years of ranking teams. Their only real chance at a loss is in the final week of the season, when they face South Carolina in their rivalry game.

Alabama has a 27.6% chance of finishing undefeated, but their path is much tougher, with several tough SEC road games, and they are one of 5 SEC teams in the top 10. (By contrast, there is no other ACC team in the top 25.) The Tide will be favored in all of their games, but there are plenty of chances to slip up.

In addition to the two perennials, I am projecting Oklahoma, led by former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts, and Utah, as Pac 12 champs, to snag the final 2 spots in this year's playoff. UCF will again be in the running, but they will need to win every game, especially their trip to Cincinnati at the start of October, and hope all of the other major conference champs lose at least 2 games.

Below are my full preseason rankings, with last year's final ranking included, and projected conference champs in bold:

							Proj
Rank	LW	Team		Rating	W	L	W	L	SOS	MOV
1	1		Clemson	-32.87	0	0	12	0
2	2		Alabama	-27.98	0	0	11	1
3	15		UCF	-24.75	0	0	11	1
4	12		Florida	-22.77	0	0	9	3
5	20		Appalachian St	-20.76	0	0	11	1
6	10		LSU	-19.69	0	0	9	3
7	3		Georgia	-19.35	0	0	9	3
8	11		Missouri	-18.54	0	0	9	3
9	28		Utah	-17.47	0	0	10	2
10	6		Oklahoma	-17.4	0	0	10	2
11	46		Michigan St	-17.24	0	0	10	2
12	4		Notre Dame	-16.77	0	0	10	2
13	8		Michigan	-15.86	0	0	9	3
14	18		Iowa	-15.58	0	0	9	3
15	29		Cincinnati	-15.39	0	0	10	2
16	9		Texas A&M	-14.99	0	0	7	5
17	23		Kentucky	-14.64	0	0	8	4
18	5		Mississippi St	-14.3	0	0	8	4
19	16		Auburn	-13.8	0	0	7	5
20	27		Texas	-13.69	0	0	9	3
21	34		South Carolina	-11.61	0	0	5	7
22	14		Utah State	-11.25	0	0	9	3
23	7		Ohio State	-11.14	0	0	8	4
24	58		Nebraska	-11	0	0	8	4
25	36		Wisconsin	-10.96	0	0	8	4
26	31		Miami	-10.55	0	0	9	3
27	24		Washington	-10.46	0	0	9	3
28	59		TCU	-10.27	0	0	8	4
29	98		Arkansas	-9.799	0	0	7	5
30	42		Boston College	-9.772	0	0	8	4
31	72		Indiana	-9.483	0	0	8	4
32	48		Minnesota	-9.185	0	0	8	4
33	45		Oregon	-9.047	0	0	8	4
34	74		Tennessee	-8.575	0	0	6	6
35	70		North Texas	-8.509	0	0	9	3
36	25		Washington St	-8.362	0	0	8	4
37	13		Fresno State	-8.318	0	0	9	3
38	82		Northern Illinois	-7.799	0	0	7	4
39	33		Virginia	-7.798	0	0	9	3
40	30		Army	-7.6	0	0	11	2
41	65		Baylor	-7.074	0	0	8	4
42	68		USC	-7.047	0	0	6	6
43	73		Houston	-6.975	0	0	7	5
44	60		Maryland	-6.846	0	0	6	6
45	19		Syracuse	-6.652	0	0	7	5
46	49		BYU	-6.611	0	0	7	5
47	35		Stanford	-6.528	0	0	7	5
48	51		Texas Tech	-6.486	0	0	7	5
49	17		Penn State	-6.19	0	0	6	6
50	21		West Virginia	-5.786	0	0	6	6
51	84		Tulane	-5.585	0	0	7	5
52	38		Pittsburgh	-5.538	0	0	7	5
53	41		Vanderbilt	-5.516	0	0	5	7
54	37		Oklahoma State	-5.381	0	0	7	5
55	22		NC State	-5.295	0	0	7	5
56	61		Wake Forest	-5.249	0	0	7	5
57	52		Memphis	-4.942	0	0	8	4
58	88		Florida State	-4.478	0	0	6	6
59	55		Georgia Southern	-4.356	0	0	8	4
60	32		Ohio	-3.944	0	0	9	3
61	67		Marshall	-3.451	0	0	8	4
62	76		Florida Intl	-3.058	0	0	8	4
63	54		Troy	-3.01	0	0	8	4
64	40		Iowa State	-2.962	0	0	6	6
65	62		Toledo	-2.882	0	0	8	4
66	95		SMU	-2.851	0	0	7	5
67	26		Boise State	-2.849	0	0	8	4
68	56		Temple	-2.224	0	0	7	5
69	44		Northwestern	-2.199	0	0	6	6
70	79		Virginia Tech	-2.015	0	0	7	5
71	87		Southern Miss	-1.689	0	0	7	5
72	47		UAB	-1.612	0	0	8	4
73	85		Louisiana	-1.365	0	0	7	5
74	39		Duke	-1.283	0	0	5	7
75	92		Louisiana Tech	-1.02	0	0	8	4
76	75		Air Force	-0.344	0	0	7	5
77	53		Arizona State	-0.078	0	0	6	6
78	101		South Florida	0.052	0	0	7	5
79	83		Arizona	0.423	0	0	5	7
80	63		Mid Tennessee	0.569	0	0	6	6
81	71		Kansas State	0.691	0	0	5	7
82	78		Eastern Michigan	0.829	0	0	7	5
83	93		San Diego State	0.96	0	0	7	5
84	90		UCLA	0.989	0	0	4	8
85	89		Colorado	1.121	0	0	5	7
86	125		Central Michigan	2.308	0	0	6	6
87	43		Purdue	2.518	0	0	4	8
88	66		Arkansas State	2.715	0	0	7	5
89	100		Charlotte	2.865	0	0	6	6
90	91		North Carolina	3.027	0	0	3	9
91	111		West Kentucky	3.105	0	0	6	6
92	80		Nevada	3.787	0	0	7	5
93	57		Buffalo	3.836	0	0	6	6
94	102		Hawaii	3.94	0	0	5	8
95	77		California	4.087	0	0	4	8
96	86		Wyoming	4.141	0	0	6	6
97	94		West Michigan	4.275	0	0	6	6
98	50		Georgia Tech	4.941	0	0	4	8
99	105		Liberty	5.418	0	0	6	6
100	81		Florida Atlantic	5.652	0	0	5	7
101	97		Louisiana Monroe	5.786	0	0	6	6
102	103		Tulsa	6.086	0	0	4	8
103	69		Miami (OH)	6.22	0	0	5	7
104	64		Ole Miss	6.345	0	0	3	9
105	119		Oregon State	7.655	0	0	3	9
106	121		Louisville	8.245	0	0	2	10
107	109		Akron	9.31	0	0	5	7
108	113		Rutgers	9.444	0	0	2	10
109	106		Illinois	9.47	0	0	4	8
110	117		Kent State	9.497	0	0	4	8
111	99		Navy	9.623	0	0	4	8
112	110		New Mexico	9.668	0	0	5	7
113	107		UNLV	10.11	0	0	5	7
114	96		Kansas	10.57	0	0	2	10
115	108		Ball State	11.42	0	0	3	9
116	126		New Mexico St	12.33	0	0	3	9
117	116		San Jose State	12.51	0	0	3	9
118	104		Coastal Carolina	12.63	0	0	4	8
119	112		Old Dominion	17.04	0	0	3	9
120	122		South Alabama	17.29	0	0	2	10
121	115		Texas State	18.19	0	0	3	9
122	127		UT San Antonio	18.21	0	0	3	9
123	124		Bowling Green	18.22	0	0	2	10
124	123		East Carolina	18.55	0	0	2	9
125	120		Georgia State	18.86	0	0	2	10
126	114		UMass	19.32	0	0	3	9
127	118		Colorado State	19.74	0	0	1	11
128	128		Rice	25.41	0	0	1	11
129	130		Connecticut	30.58	0	0	1	11
130	129		UTEP	31.6	0	0	1	11