NCAA Tournament Odds 2014

It's time for my favorite 3 weeks of the year, March Madness. I've gone through every possible matchup and calculated the odds of each team advancing to any point in the tourney, and I'm sharing my results here. I'm also picking the most likely upsets, Cinderellas, and champs, so keep reading if you'd like some good tips for your bracket.

Best Teams Left Out

Teams are listed by final ranking using my formula

25. Louisiana Tech
27. Utah
35. Arkansas
36. Southern Methodist
39. Florida State
42. St. John's

Last season I had a list of 8 teams that I felt should have been in, so the committee did a better job this year, although LaTech and Utah are ranked much higher than any team left out last year.

Teams that Should Have Been Left Out

51. Texas (7)
56. Kansas State (9)
59. Colorado (8)
64. Dayton (11)
65. Nebraska (11)
84. North Carolina State (12)

Of the 8 teams I said shouldn't have made it last year, 4 lost in the first round, including 6-seed UCLA, and another 3 lost in the second round, with only LaSalle making it past the first week, and they were the best of the 8. Colorado is making a repeat appearance here, which is rare, but the only team I have a real problem with including is NC State, who did not earn this spot at all.

Most Underseeded Teams

These are the teams that should have been seeded higher according to their performance this season and makes them good teams to look to when you're trying to pick upsets.

1. Iowa
2. Oklahoma State
3. Tennessee
4. Pittsburgh
5. Harvard
6. Louisville
7. Kentucky
8. Michigan State
9. Ohio State
10. Gonzaga

Last season, only 2 of my 11 underseeded teams pulled off upsets, but 3 of them lost to other teams on the list, and 2 fell only 2 points short of the upset. This year, Iowa and Tennessee will be playing a play-in game, so only one of them will have a shot at pulling the upset against UMass. Many of the others should be scary in the first weekend.

Most Overseeded Teams

These teams may be ripe for an early exit from the tournament this year.

1. Wichita State
2. Syracuse
3. Saint Louis
4. Massachusetts
5. Texas
6. Oklahoma
7. Baylor
8. Colorado
9. Virginia
10. Wisconsin

Last season, 4 of the ten teams I put here lost in the first round, including 4-seed Kansas State, 5-seed UNLV, and 6-seed UCLA. In addition, Miami, a 2-seed, failed to reach the Elite 8, which would be their expected finish. Over vs. Under-rated matchups that could happen this week include Wichita State vs. Kentucky, Syracuse vs. Ohio State, UMass vs. Iowa/Tennessee, and Colorado vs. Pittsburgh.

Number of First-Round Upsets

9.6

Last season I picked 10.4, and there were exactly 10, so I was right on. Look for anywhere from 8 to 11, but don't pick too many or too few.

Most Likely First-Round Upsets

(9) Pittsburgh over (8) Colorado - 66.9%
(11) Iowa/Tennessee over (6) Massachusetts - 65.6%
(9) Oklahoma State over (8) Gonzaga - 58.1%
(10) Arizona State over (7) Texas - 55.8%
(9) George Washington over (8) Memphis - 49.5%
(12) Harvard over (5) Cincinnati - 48.3%
(10) BYU over (7) Oregon - 46.6%
(10) Stanford over (7) New Mexico - 46.1%
(12) North Dakota State over (5) Oklahoma - 44.9%
(12) NC State/Xavier over (5) Saint Louis - 44.0%
(11) Nebraska over (6) Baylor - 41.8%
(11) Providence over (6) North Carolina - 41.6%

7 of the 10 upsets that happened last year were on my list, just like the year before. If you love upsets, this is the place to look first, then maybe pick 2 or 3 from the rest.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull an Upset

(15) American over (2) Wisconsin - 17.1%
(15) Eastern Kentucky over (2) Kansas - 11.4%

There are only 2 low seeds with any chance at an upset this year, so it's best not to even pick one. Last season I predicted there would be 1, and Florida Gulf Coast pulled through for me. I don't see it happening this year.

Most Likely Cinderellas

These are the teams most likely to pull off 2 upsets to make the Sweet 16.

(9) Pittsburgh - 27.2%
(11) Iowa - 22.2%
(9) Oklahoma State - 21.8%
(10) Arizona State - 20.9%
(12) Harvard - 20.1%
(10) BYU - 19.4%
(12) North Dakota State - 18.2%
(11) Providence - 16.2%
(9) George Washington - 15.9%
(10) Stanford - 15.6%

Last season there were 4 Cinderellas, and 2 were on my list. Wichita State and Florida Gulf Coast were the bigger surprises.

Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16

2.7

Last season I picked 3.5, and there were 3, just like the year before, so this season should be no different, with 2 or three of the Cinderellas above making it through this week.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

0.9

Last season I picked 1.3, and there was just one, Louisville, that made the Final Four. Picking more than 2 to make it would probably not be very smart.

Odds of #1 Seed Winning the Championship

26.3%

Last year it was 44.9%, and #1 Louisville ended up winning, but this year it's a lot less likely that one of the top seeds will win it all.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(4) Louisville - 77.8%
(1) Virginia - 67.4%
(1) Arizona - 65.6%
(1) Florida - 64.4%
(2) Villanova - 64.1%
(2) Michigan - 63.9%
(2) Kansas - 61.0%
(3) Creighton - 58.6%
(1) Wichita State - 55.6%
(2) Wisconsin - 51.7%
(4) Michigan State - 51.4%
(3) Duke - 48.7%
(4) UCLA - 48.2%
(4) San Diego State - 43.8%
(3) Iowa State - 43.8%
(6) Ohio State - 43.7%
(3) Syracuse - 38.1%
(5) VCU - 34.0%
(8) Kentucky - 31.4%

Last year, 10 of the 12 most likely teams by my formula ended up making the Sweet 16, so don't pick too many of the top teams here to lose early.

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(4) Louisville - 40.4%
(1) Arizona - 34.2%
(2) Villanova - 24.0%
(1) Florida - 23.3%
(2) Kansas - 22.4%
(1) Virginia - 20.1%
(4) Michigan - 16.8%
(3) Creighton - 16.1%
(2) Michigan - 14.7%
(2) Wisconsin - 13.8%
(3) Duke - 13.6%
(4) UCLA - 12.8%
(3) Iowa State - 11.4%
(6) Ohio State - 10.7%
(1) Wichita State - 10.4%

Last year two of my most likely Final Four teams made it, with Wichita State and Michigan surprising me.

Most Likely Champions

(4) Louisville - 18.1%
(1) Arizona - 13.1%
(1) Florida - 6.4%
(2) Villanova - 6.4%
(2) Kansas - 6.3%
(1) Virginia - 4.6%
(4) Michigan State - 4.2%
(3) Duke - 3.8%
(3) Creighton - 3.8%
(2) Michigan - 3.6%
(2) Wisconsin - 3.1%
(4) UCLA - 2.9%
(1) Wichita State - 2.3%
(3) Iowa State - 2.3%
(6) Ohio State - 2.2%

Last season, I had Louisville as the #2 team on this list, and the previous year I had Kentucky at #1, so I'm feeling pretty good about seeing either a Cardinal repeat or a Wildcat win.

Overall Bracket

This is what the bracket will look like if the better team wins each game. Don't forget, there will be plenty of upsets throughout, but this could be a good template to use as a starter bracket.

First Round

(1) Florida
(9) Pittsburgh
(5) VCU
(4) UCLA
(6) Ohio State
(3) Syracuse
(7) New Mexico
(2) Kansas

(1) Virginia
(8) Memphis
(5) Cincinnati
(4) Michigan State
(6) North Carolina
(3) Iowa State
(7) Connecticut
(2) Villanova

(1) Arizona
(9) Oklahoma State
(5) Oklahoma
(4) San Diego State
(6) Baylor
(3) Creighton
(7) Oregon
(2) Wisconsin

(1) Wichita State
(8) Kentucky
(5) Saint Louis
(4) Louisville
(11) Iowa
(3) Duke
(10) Arizona State
(2) Michigan

Sweet 16

(1) Florida
(4) UCLA
(6) Ohio State
(2) Kansas

(1) Virginia
(4) Michigan State
(3) Iowa State
(2) Villanova

(1) Arizona
(4) San Diego State
(3) Creighton
(2) Wisconsin

(1) Wichita State
(4) Louisville
(3) Duke
(2) Michigan

Elite Eight

(1) Florida
(2) Kansas

(4) Michigan State
(2) Villanova

(1) Arizona
(3) Creighton

(4) Louisville
(3) Duke

Final Four

(2) Kansas
(2) Villanova
(1) Arizona
(4) Louisville

Championship

(2) Kansas
(4) Louisville

Champs

(4) Louisville

I wouldn't recommend copying this bracket exactly, because there are not enough upsets, but it can serve as a helpful guide. Enjoy the Madness!

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics

NBA

Atlanta at Charlotte - Hawks by 1
Philadelphia at Indiana - Pacers by 20
Phoenix at Brooklyn - Nets by 4
Oklahoma City at Chicago - Bulls by 3
Utah at Houston - Rockets by 12
Boston at Dallas - Mavericks by 11
LA Clippers at Denver - Clippers by 6

CIT

Holy Cross at Brown - Bears by 6

Prediction Results

NBA: 6-3 (.667) 655-338 overall (.660)
College Basketball: 1-4 (.200) 4331-1463 overall (.747)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 700-479 overall (.594)
Pick of the Day: 118-8 overall (.937)