The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament has come and gone, and it was as good as expected, with tons of upsets and plenty of close games. Last week I posted my predictions and rankings for the tourney, so now I'm going to see how I did, as well as update the remaining teams' odds to account for this week's results. The original post can be read here.
Best Teams Left Out
Of the 6 teams I felt should have been put in the NCAA Tournament field but weren't, 3 are still currently alive in the NIT, which is down to the final 8 teams. There's a pretty good chance that one of them will come out as the winner still.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Only 2 of the 6 teams that I felt should have been left out won a game in this year's tourney, but one (Dayton) is still alive after upsetting both Ohio State and Syracuse. 5 out of 6 gone after week 1 is still pretty good.
Most Underseeded Teams
7 of the 10 teams that I felt were seeded too low won their first tournament game, and 2 of them lost to other teams on the list, so only Ohio State disappointed on this list. Also, 4 of the teams are still alive in the Sweet 16, including 11-seed Tennessee and 8-seed Kentucky.
Most Overseeded Teams
7 of the 10 teams on this list have already made their exit, with 3 bowing out in the first round, all in upsets, and 4 more dropping in the 2nd round, also in upsets in every case. The 3 remaining were ranked 7, 9, and 10 on the list, so they were not overseeded as much as those that have said goodbye already.
Number of First-Round Upsets
There were 8 upsets in the first round, which was at the lower end of the range I gave, which was between 8 and 11.
Most Likely First-Round Upsets
5 of those 8 upsets appeared on my list, with 3 (Dayton, Mercer, Stephen F Austin) coming from below the list just like last season.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull an Upset
I predicted there wouldn't be one this year, and there wasn't.
Most Likely Cinderellas
Only Stanford, the least-likely team on this list, ended up in the Sweet 16.
Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
There are 3 (Dayton, Stanford, and Tennessee), which is right where I predicted it would be.
#1 Seeds in the Final Four
1.1, up from 0.9 at the beginning of the tourney.
Odds of #1 Seed Winning the Championship
33.8%, up from 26.3% a week ago.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
11 of the Sweet 16 teams were on this list, with Villanova being the biggest disappointment.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
(4) Louisville - 50.5%
(1) Arizona - 46.0%
(1) Florida - 40.6%
(4) UCLA - 30.4%
(4) Michigan State - 29.4%
(3) Iowa State - 26.5%
(1) Virginia - 26.3%
(2) Wisconsin - 26.1%
(2) Michigan - 21.4%
(10) Stanford - 18.3%
(7) Connecticut - 17.8%
(4) San Diego State - 16.8%
(11) Tennessee - 15.7%
(8) Kentucky - 12.3%
(6) Baylor - 11.1%
(11) Dayton - 10.8%
UCLA made one of the biggest jumps, probably because Kansas, Syracuse, and Ohio State have all been taken out already, meaning the Bruins only need to get past Florida to have a great shot at a Final 4 berth.
Most Likely Champions
(4) Louisville - 21.5%
(1) Arizona - 17.0%
(1) Florida - 10.9%
(4) Michigan State - 7.2%
(4) UCLA - 6.6%
(1) Virginia - 5.9%
(2) Wisconsin - 5.7%
(3) Iowa State - 5.5%
(2) Michigan - 5.0%
(4) San Diego State - 3.2%
(11) Tennessee - 3.0%
(7) Connecticut - 2.8%
(8) Kentucky - 2.2%
Overall Bracket
These are my picks to win each of the remaining games.
Elite Eight
(4) UCLA
(11) Dayton
(1) Virginia
(7) Connecticut
(1) Arizona
(2) Wisconsin
(4) Louisville
(11) Tennessee
Final Four
(4) UCLA
(7) Connecticut
(1) Arizona
(4) Louisville
Championship
(7) Connecticut
(1) Arizona
Champs
(1) Arizona
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
NBA
Toronto at Cleveland - Raptors by 4
Portland at Orlando - Trail Blazers by 3
Oklahoma City at Dallas - Mavericks by 3
New York at LA Lakers - Knicks by 2
NIT
(5) Belmont at (3) Clemson - Tigers by 9
(3) Southern Miss at (1) Minnesota - Golden Gophers by 6
Prediction Results
NBA: 8-2 (.800) 699-355 overall (.663)
Upsets: 2-2 (.500) 100-101 overall (.498)
NIT: 3-0 (1.000) 19-5 overall (.792)
CBI: 3-1 (.750) 9-3 overall (.750)
Upsets: 3-0 (1.000) 8-1 overall (.889)
CIT: 1-0 (1.000) 14-10 overall (.583)
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