Monday, February 28, 2011

NBA Rankings - 28 Feb

Another week, another change at the top. Miami looked like they were going to become the first team in months to hold on to the top spot until they blew a big lead at home against New York last night, opening the door for San Antonio to reclaim the top, which they did by beating the Grizzlies, although barely. Nobody is separating themselves from the pack, which means that a lot of teams will have a chance in the playoffs, which could make for a very exciting postseason. Here are this week's updated rankings, with team name followed by weekly record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

The Contenders

1. San Antonio (3-0) (49-10) -6.96 (2)
2. Miami (2-2) (43-17) -6.80 (1)
3. Boston (2-1) (42-15) -6.06 (3)
4. LA Lakers (4-0) (42-19) -5.94 (6)
5. Orlando (2-1) (38-22) -5.60 (4)
6. Chicago (2-1) (40-17) -5.43 (5)

Could Go Either Way

7. Dallas (3-0) (43-16) -4.15 (7)

Average Teams

8. Denver (2-1) (34-26) -2.84 (9)
9. Oklahoma City (1-3) (36-22) -2.45 (8)
10. New Orleans (2-1) (35-26) -2.34 (10)
11. Memphis (2-2) (33-28) -1.97 (11)
12. Philadelphia (3-0) (30-29) -1.66 (12)
13. Houston (4-0) (30-31) -1.19 (15)
14. Atlanta (2-2) (36-23) -1.04 (14)
15. New York (2-1) (30-27) -0.61 (16)
16. Portland (1-2) (33-26) -0.49 (13)
17. Phoenix (3-0) (30-27) -0.30 (17)
18. Indiana (2-2) (26-32) 0.45 (18)
19. Utah (1-2) (32-28) 0.47 (19)
20. Milwaukee (1-2) (22-36) 1.18 (20)

Occasional Competitors

21. Charlotte (2-1) (26-33) 2.52 (23)
22. Golden State (0-3) (26-32) 2.91 (21)
23. LA Clippers (0-4) (21-39) 3.03 (22)
24. Detroit (1-3) (22-39) 3.70 (24)

Crappy Teams

25. Minnesota (1-3) (14-46) 5.57 (27)
26. Sacramento (1-3) (14-43) 5.80 (26)
27. New Jersey (0-2) (17-42) 5.81 (28)
28. Toronto (1-3) (16-44) 5.83 (25)
29. Washington (0-4) (15-43) 6.04 (29)

Cleveland

30. Cleveland (1-2) (11-48) 9.17 (30)

In Like a Lion

The Lakers are entering March on fire, winning four straight games this week, including home blowouts of the Hawks and Clippers and tough road wins against both Portland and Oklahoma City. This week's test comes Sunday, when they travel to San Antonio to face the league's best team and try to beat them for the first time this season.

The Phoenix Suns are also roaring into March after beating three Eastern Conference teams this week, two of which have playoff aspirations. Channing Frye's buzzer-beater last night in Indiana was the first for Phoenix since 2004, and it gives the Suns some much-needed momentum heading into a week of 4 straight road games, highlighted by trips to Boston and Oklahoma City.

Houston remains right on the heels of Phoenix as the two teams try to insert themselves into the Western Conference Playoff picture, and a 4-0 week sure helped. The first three wins could have been attributed to the level of competition they faced, but last night's win in New Orleans showed that these Rockets are not ready to give up yet. This week's big game is in Portland, who is currently #7 in the West.

Out Like a Lamb

Golden State entered the All-Star break on fire, but the flame has gone out. They were blown out at home by both Boston and Atlanta before going to Minnesota and surrendering to the Timberwolves. Their next six games are on the road against the East, and unless they can beat either Indiana or Philadelphia to go along with the 3 they should win, they may be dead before they get back home.

Miami's week consisted of two wins against horrible opponents and two losses to potential playoff foes. If they decide to follow that same blueprint this week, they will lose all three, because they are facing three of the top 6 teams in the league in the next 7 days.

Beating the Chicago Bulls should have moved Toronto up the rankings this week, but they followed up that amazing performance with two duds against Phoenix and Dallas. All three games were at home, but for some reason the Western Conference teams were each able to beat the lowly Raptors by 18 points. Looks like that Chicago game was a fluke.

NBA Player of the Day

Kevin Love - MIN - 37 pts, 23 reb, 2 stl, 8-13 FG, 3-4 3P, 18-23 FT
Love set new franchise records for free throws made and attempted in a game and the Wolves held on the upset the Golden State Warriors last night, 126-123. It was the 4th time this season that Love has had a 30-20 game, and the only other players to do it at least 4 times in a season since 1985 are Shaq and Charles Barkley.

Predictions - 28 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Suns at Nets - Suns by 3
Bulls at Wizards - Bulls by 9
Hawks at Nuggets - Nuggets by 5
Celtics at Jazz - Celtics by 4
Clippers at Kings - Kings by 1

College Basketball

Kansas State at (5) Texas - Texas by 12
(14) Villanova at (9) Notre Dame - Notre Dame by 8

Prediction Results - 27 Feb

NBA: 6-4 (.600) 500-204 overall (.710)
College Basketball: 5-2 (.714) 504-122 overall (.805)
Upsets: 2-3 (.400) 132-83 overall (.614)

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Predictions - 27 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Suns at Pacers - Pacers by 2
Lakers at Thunder - Lakers by 1
76ers at Cavaliers - 76ers by 8
Warriors at Timberwolves - Timberwolves by 1
Bobcats at Magic - Magic by 11
Mavericks at Raptors - Mavs by 7
Rockets at Hornets - Hornets by 4
Grizzlies at Spurs - Spurs by 7
Knicks at Heat - Heat by 10
Hawks at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 3

College Basketball

Indiana at (3) Ohio State - Ohio State by 20
(6) Pittsburgh at (16) Louisville - Louisville by 2
(8) Purdue at Michigan State - Purdue by 2
Northwestern at (12) Wisconsin - Wisconsin by 15
(15) Connecticut at Cincinnati - Cincinnati by 7
Maryland at (19) North Carolina - North Carolina by 7
Washington State at Washington - Washington by 15

NBA Player of the Day

Kevin Martin - HOU - 30 pts, 6 reb, 4 ast, 2 stl, 9-15 FG, 4-6 3P, 8-9 FT
In Houston's first game since trading away two of their best players, Kevin Martin took over, scoring 30 points for the second straight game and helping the Rockets win their 3rd straight game by beating New Jersey by 15 points. Martin contributed in every area of the game, and he shot at least 60% from every area of the floor.

Prediction Results - 26 Feb

NBA: 5-1 (.833) 494-200 overall (.712)
College Basketball: 12-6 (.667) 499-120 overall (.806)
Upsets: 3-0 (1.000) 130-80 overall (.619)

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Predictions - 26 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Jazz at Pistons - Jazz by 1
Mavericks at Wizards - Mavs by 7
Kings at Grizzlies - Grizz by 10
Nets at Rockets - Rockets by 9
Bulls at Bucks - Bulls by 4
Celtics at Clippers - Celts by 6

College Basketball

(1) Duke at Virginia Tech - Duke by 5
(2) Kansas at Oklahoma - Kansas by 16
(7) BYU at (4) San Diego State - San Diego State by 4
(5) Texas at Colorado - Texas by 5
Seton Hall at (9) Notre Dame - Notre Dame by 12
(10) Arizona at UCLA - Arizona by 1
(20) Syracuse at (11) Georgetown - Georgetown by 5
(13) Florida at (22) Kentucky - Kentucky by 11
(25) Saint John's at (14) Villanova - Nova by 8
(17) Texas A&M at Baylor - Baylor by 3
(18) Vanderbilt at LSU - Vandy by 10
(21) Missouri at Kansas State - Kansas State by 4
Idaho at (23) Utah State - Utah State by 16
(24) Temple at George Washington - Temple by 3
Belmont at Kennesaw State - Belmont by 21
Iowa at Illinois - Illinois by 14
George Mason at Georgia State - George Mason by 11
Wyoming at UNLV - UNLV by 22

NBA Player of the Day

Dwight Howard - ORL - 40 pts, 15 reb, 2 stl, 6 blk, 16-20 FG, 8-12 FT
Howard scored at least 30 points for the 4th straight game as Orlando bounced back from their embarrassing loss to Sacramento in impressive fashion, beating a hot Oklahoma City team by 23 points. The Magic center also blocked 6 shots and shot 80% from the field and helped hold the Thunder to their lowest scoring total since January 1.

Prediction Results - 25 Feb

NBA: 10-2 (.833) 489-199 overall (.711)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 127-80 overall (.614)

Friday, February 25, 2011

NBA MVP Rankings - 25 Feb

There were fewer games to take into account this week because of the All-Star break, but there was a little movement in both the MVP and Rookie of the Year races. The media is starting to declare the MVP award a two-man race, which is probably right, because Wade probably won't win it if he's not his team's best player, but there are some dark horses lurking who could enter the discussion if their teams can make a run in the next two months, including a pair of former MVP's and last year's runner-up. Here are this week's rankings, with last week ranking in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James - MIA - 26.2 pts, 7.5 reb, 7.2 ast (1)
LeBron averaged 30 points on 55% shooting this week for the Heat, but they still failed to beat another of the top teams in the East last night, going down to Chicago and fellow MVP candidate Derrick Rose. You can't blame James for the loss, however, because there were very few negatives in his performance.

2. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 25.5 pts, 6.9 reb, 4.4 ast (2)
Wade was also not the one to blame for Miami's loss last night, as he put up 34 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in the game, but unless he can outplay James for the remainder of the season, he doesn't stand any real chance of passing the King and taking home his first MVP.

3. Derrick Rose - CHI - 25.0 pts, 4.4 reb, 8.2 ast (3)
You would think that beating Miami last night would have helped Rose's ranking, but you can't forget that Chicago lost their previous game to Toronto, which is much worse than Miami's loss to Chicago. Rose has shot below 37% since the All-Star game, definitely not an MVP-caliber number.

4. Kevin Durant - OKC - 28.8 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.8 ast (4)
After two blowout games where he didn't get much playing time, Durant finally got some serious minutes against the Spurs this week, and he responded with another 30-point game, but the Thunder weren't quite able to pull off the upset of top-ranked San Antonio.

5. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 25.2 pts, 5.4 reb, 4.8 ast (6)
Kobe and the Lakers are returning to form since the All-Star break, starting with Kobe scoring 20 in just 26 minutes of their blowout over Atlanta, and continuing with Kobe's 37 in their overtime victory over surging Portland, which was good enough to make him the Player of the Day.

6. Pau Gasol - LAL - 18.7 pts, 10.5 reb, 3.6 ast (7)
Pau has now put up a double-double in 4 straight games, and the Lakers have won the last two. It's too bad his 30-20 game against Cleveland was wasted last week, because that could have been a signature game for him and possibly pushed him farther ahead in this race.

7. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 22.1 pts, 4.9 reb, 8.5 ast (5)
Westbrook has only averaged 19 points and 7 assists in the first two games since the All-Star game, and he only scored 10 in the game right before the break, and when you couple that with another loss, it means that he has to drop a couple spots.

8. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 22.7 pts, 6.6 reb, 2.5 ast (8)
Dirk had a very average game in Dallas first game since the break, nearly matching all of his averages perfectly in the Mavericks' 19-point win over Utah. If Dallas can get back to where they were before his injury, look for him to climb back into the top 5 before the season's over.

9. Dwight Howard - ORL - 23.0 pts, 13.9 reb, 2.1 blk (9)
Howard has now scored 30 points in 3 straight games and 4 of Orlando's past 5, and he also grabbed 17 rebounds in 3 of those games. If Orlando could just win a little more consistently, the big man would have moved up a couple spots.

10. Amare Stoudemire - NYK - 26.0 pts, 8.2 reb, 2.2 blk (10)
Amare only had 19 points in his first game alongside Carmelo Anthony, and he may continue to take a statistical hit for the rest of the season, which will probably knock him out of this race, especially with LaMarcus Aldridge coming on strong right now.

Closing in:
LaMarcus Aldridge, Carlos Boozer

Rookie of the Year

1. Blake Griffin - LAC - 22.8 pts, 12.6 reb, 3.6 ast (1)
Griffin has still been his usual awesome self after winning the Slam Dunk contest this year even after coming in as the favorite, but the Clippers are still struggling to win many games. Their long road trip will mercifully end this week.

2. John Wall - WAS - 15.2 pts, 4.3 reb, 9.0 ast (2)
Wall's huge performance in the Rookie-Sophomore game over All-Star weekend seems to have given him some extra confidence, and on Wednesday he had one of the best games of his young career, finishing with 21 points, 12 assists, and 5 rebounds against the 76ers.

3. DeMarcus Cousins - SAC - 13.8 pts, 8.2 reb, 1.9 ast (3)
Cousins has not played very well this week, failing to reach double figures in either of Sacramento's games, the first time that has happened since the end of December. Another week like this and Cousins will be going back down this list.

4. Landry Fields - NYK - 10.0 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.0 ast (4)
Fields avoided being traded this week, although his name did come up in the Carmelo rumors, but still only scored 7 points in 43 minutes as New York beat Milwaukee this week. While he's never been a big scorer, his role may continue to diminish with another star in town.

5. Greg Monroe - DET - 7.9 pts, 6.6 reb, 0.9 ast (NR)
Monroe led off the second part of the season with two double-doubles, and the latest one was a very impressive 27-point, 12-rebound performance against Indiana in a game that the Pistons nearly won. There's still a bit of a gap between him and Fields, but if he keeps playing this well, he could get as high as #3 before the season is over.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Jason Terry - DAL - 15.8 pts, 1.9 reb, 4.4 ast (1)
Terry has not reached the 20-point mark in over 2 weeks, and with a couple of solid challengers for this award, he needs to turn it around to hold on to his lead. With Dallas getting back to normal, he should be able to settle back into his role soon.

2. Ramon Sessions - CLE - 12.4 pts, 2.9 reb, 5.4 ast (2)
Sessions started again in Cleveland game against Houston this week, putting up 20 points with 12 assists in another close loss, but he is expected to give the starting point guard spot up to Baron Davis once he gets comfortable in Cleveland, which should allow Sessions to remain eligible for this award.

3. Jamal Crawford - ATL - 15.1 pts, 1.8 reb, 3.4 ast (3)
Crawford has increased his scoring totals now for 5 straight games, reaching 19 against Phoenix on Wednesday, and if he continues his upward trend, it's just a matter of time before he regains the top spot.

4. Shawn Marion - DAL - 11.7 pts, 6.6 reb, 1.2 ast (4)
Marion has put together a very solid stretch of 5 games, scoring between 12 and 19 in each of those games, which means that his scoring average has been increasing in each of those games also. He has now scored in double-figures in 12 of Dallas' last 14 games.

5. Thaddeus Young - PHI - 12.2 pts, 5.1 reb, 1.1 ast (5)
Young has scored at least 18 in each of Philadelphia's last 4 games, all while shooting 64% from the field and helping the 76ers win 3 of those games to help them solidify their playoff positioning.

Most Improved Player

1. Dorell Wright - GSW - +9.4 pts, +2.4 reb, +1.9 ast (1)
Wright scored 19 points in Golden State's loss to Boston this week, which is above his season average, but it wasn't enough to pull off the upset, just like his first round in the 3-point shootout during All-Star weekend.

2. Kevin Love - MIN - +6.9 pts, +4.4 reb, +0.2 ast (2)
The double-double machine is still on the tracks, single-handedly keeping Minnesota competitive in most of their games. His scoring has dipped a little recently, but he's probably feeling the pressure of trying to carry a team for an entire season.

3. D.J. Augustin - CHA - +7.9 pts, +1.6 reb, +3.7 ast (3)
The All-Star break looks like it did wonders for Augustin, who scored in double figures for the first time in about 2 weeks in Charlotte's win over Toronto on Tuesday. He finished with 23 points on 53% shooting, and had 8 assists in addition.

4. Nick Young - WAS - +8.9 pts, +1.4 reb, +0.6 ast (4)
Young is currently struggling with a sore knee, but he still managed to score 16 and 15 in Washington's two latest losses. He'll be back to his high-scoring ways as soon as his knee is back to full health.

5. Eric Gordon - LAC - +7.2 pts, +0.6 reb, +1.5 ast (5)
Gordon still has not returned from his wrist injury, but the latest reports are that he is aiming for a return on Monday against Sacramento, and the Clippers could sure use his help on the offensive side of the ball.

NBA Player of the Day

Dwyane Wade - MIA - 34 pts, 8 reb, 2 ast, 2 stl, 12-24 FG, 10-12 FT
The Heat may have lost last night, but it was not because James and Wade didn't play well, because they were the two best players on the court last night, just like most nights. The problem was with Chris Bosh, who shot a horrible 1 for 18 from the field, one of the worst shooting nights in history.

Predictions - 25 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Suns at Raptors - Suns by 2
Jazz at Pacers - Pacers by 3
Pistons at 76ers - 76ers by 8
Kings at Bobcats - Bobcats by 5
Knicks at Cavaliers - Knicks by 7
Wizards at Heat - Heat by 17
Hornets at Timberwolves - Hornets by 5
Thunder at Magic - Magic by 5
Nets at Spurs - Spurs by 16
Hawks at Warriors - Hawks by 1
Clippers vs. Lakers - Lakers by 9
Nuggets at Trail Blazers - Trail Blazers by 1

Prediction Results - 24 Feb

NBA: 1-1 (.500) 479-197 overall (.709)
College Basketball: 4-2 (.667) 487-114 overall (.810)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 125-79 overall (.613)

Thursday, February 24, 2011

NBA MVP Rankings - 2007-2008

In the 2007-08 NBA season, Kobe finally won his first MVP award, but the Lakers lost in the Finals to the Boston Celtics, led by their own MVP candidate, Kevin Garnett. Kevin Durant ran away with the Rookie of the Year award after averaging over 20 points per game, and has only gotten better since. Based on statistical data, I have re-ranked the award candidates from that season and posted my results here. Actual finish is in parentheses after the player's season statistics.

Most Valuable Player

1. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 28.3 pts, 6.3 reb, 5.4 ast (1)
This was the season that Kobe gave up both his scoring title and best player title to LeBron James, but because the Lakers were far better than the Cavaliers, Kobe was the Most Valuable Player in the league, although it was a very close race. The Lakers were the top seed in the West and represented the conference in the NBA Finals, and Kobe was #2 in scoring after leading the league during the two previous seasons.

2. Kevin Garnett - BOS - 18.8 pts, 9.2 reb, 3.4 ast (3)
Garnett failed to lead the league in rebounding after 4 seasons as the leader, but he posted a career-high in field goal percentage and led the new-look Boston Celtics to the league's best regular season record and their first championship since the days of Larry Bird.

3. Chris Paul - NOH - 21.1 pts, 4.0 reb, 11.6 ast (2)
In the Hornets' first full season back in New Orleans, Chris Paul led the league in both assists and steals while leading the Hornets to the second-best record in the West. For Paul it was only the beginning, as he became a perennial All-Star and league leader after his breakout season.

4. Amare Stoudemire - PHX - 25.2 pts, 9.1 reb, 2.1 blk (6)
Amare proved that he was fully recovered from the knee problems that caused him to miss most of the 2005-06 season with what may be his best season to date. Even though the Suns were only the #6 seed in the West, they were only 2 games behind the #1 Lakers, and Amare's 59% field goal percentage and 25.2 points (both 5th in the league) were a huge part of their success.

5. LeBron James - CLE - 30.0 pts, 7.9 reb, 7.2 ast (4)
There was no denying that LeBron had become the best player in the league, leading the league in scoring for the first time and averaging career highs in rebounds and assists to go with it. The Cavaliers still finished 21 games behind Boston in the East, but LeBron's big year was a sign of things to come.

6. Tim Duncan - SAS - 19.3 pts, 11.3 reb, 2.8 ast (7)
Although he averaged less than 20 points per game for just the second time in his career, Duncan was still 4th in the league in rebounding and had the Spurs in 2nd in the West heading into the playoffs, where they lost to the Lakers in 7 games in the Conference Finals. Even though he was already on the down side of his career, he was still one of the best around.

7. Carlos Boozer - UTA - 21.1 pts, 10.4 reb, 2.9 ast (14)
Boozer set a career high in scoring while leading Utah to a division title and the 4th seed in the Western Conference. He was also named Western Conference Player of the Month in November and made the All-NBA Third Team for the first and only time in his career.

8. Allen Iverson - DEN - 26.4 pts, 3.0 reb, 7.1 ast (NR)
Iverson led the league in minutes played for the 7th time in his career and finished third in the league in scoring, yet somehow failed to receive even a single MVP vote in the final season he was good enough to even be considered. It was his 12th straight season of at least 20 points per game, and it was also his last.

9. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 23.6 pts, 8.6 reb, 3.5 ast (11)
His stats were only slightly down from his MVP season, but Dallas dropped clear to #7 in the West and lost 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs just one season after having the league's best record. Dirk, however, was not done, and has continued to play at a high level and keep his name in the MVP race every year.

10. Dwight Howard - ORL - 20.7 pts, 14.2 reb, 2.1 blk (5)
Howard finally led the league in rebounds per game after having led the league in total rebounds for the previous two seasons, and his average was a full rebound higher than the nearest competitor. Orlando was the 3rd best team in the East, but the same record would have only earned them the 7th seed in the West.

Rookie of the Year

1. Kevin Durant - SEA - 20.3 pts, 4.4 reb, 2.4 ast (1)
Durant was the obvious runaway choice for Rookie of the Year, especially after #1 pick Greg Oden sat out the season due to injury. His rookie season wasn't as dominant as Blake Griffin's is this year, but Durant has become one of the top players in the league just a few seasons later.

2. Al Horford - ATL - 10.1 pts, 9.7 reb, 1.5 ast (2)
Horford became a starter very early in his rookie season for Atlanta and helped them earn the final playoff spot in the East, then gave the Celtics a big scare in the first round, taking the eventual champs to 7 games. Horford's growth was a little slower than Durant's, but he also started out a little behind, and has now become an All-Star and MVP candidate.

3. Luis Scola - HOU - 10.3 pts, 6.4 reb, 1.3 ast (3)
After being drafted near the end of the second round in 2002, Scola turned out to be better than expected when he finally made his NBA debut 5 years later. He has yet to miss a game in his NBA career and has continued to improve each season since his surprising rookie season.

4. Al Thornton - LAC - 12.7 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.2 ast (4)
Thornton showed a lot of promise toward the end of his rookie season, hitting the 20-point mark 16 times in the final two months of the season, but after a very good sophomore season, he took a step backwards, and is now producing at levels well below those of his rookie season.

5. Jamario Moon - TOR - 8.5 pts, 6.2 reb, 1.4 blk (5)
Moon was an undrafted free agent who played for 4 years in the D-League before finally getting a chance in the NBA, where he made an immediate impact with Toronto, but he has yet to duplicate the success of his first season.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Manu Ginobili - SAS - 19.5 pts, 4.8 reb, 4.5 ast (1)
Leading one of the best teams in the league in scoring while coming off the bench makes you an obvious choice for this award, especially when that includes career-highs in scoring, rebounds, assists, 3-pointers, free throws, and minutes played.

2. Josh Childress - ATL - 11.8 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.5 ast (6)
Childress' play off the bench was a huge factor in Atlanta making the playoffs and nearly upsetting Boston in the first round, but when he didn't get the contract offer he thought he deserved after the season, he left to play in Europe, and he hasn't been nearly as good since his return this season.

3. Ben Gordon - CHI - 18.6 pts, 3.1 reb, 3.0 ast (5)
After winning the Sixth Man Award as a rookie, Gordon was moved back to the bench in his 4th season, and it didn't have a huge impact on his overall production, but it did keep the Bulls from making the playoffs, making it a failed experiment. The next year Gordon was back to his customary spot in the starting lineup.

4. Jason Terry - DAL - 15.5 pts, 2.5 reb, 3.2 ast (3)
You can't have a sixth man discussion without involving Terry anymore, but this was his first season coming primarily off the bench since he was a rookie, and his scoring average only dropped by one point per game, so Dallas has kept him there with great results for the past 4 years.

5. Leandro Barbosa - PHX - 15.6 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.6 ast (2)
One season after winning the award, Barbosa found himself right back in the running with another solid season for the Suns, boasting the 3rd highest scoring average of all bench players and playing in every game for the first time in his career.

Most Improved Player

1. LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - +8.8 pts, +2.6 reb, +1.2 ast (3)
With Greg Oden out for the season, Portland turned to Aldridge for an inside presence, and the second-year man responded well, nearly doubling his scoring average from his rookie season. He is a candidate again this year, after raising his level of play to All-Star levels after three years of being a very good starter.

2. Ronnie Brewer - UTA - +7.4 pts, +1.6 reb, +1.4 ast (11)
Brewer was moved into the starting lineup in just his second season for Utah, and was immediately a very solid player, averaging 2.2 steals per game to go along with his huge jumps in every other category. His production has slowed somewhat in the past two seasons, but Jazz fans remember what he's capable of.

3. Rudy Gay - MEM - +9.3 pts, +1.7 reb, +0.7 ast (2)
Gay exploded in his second season out of UConn, scoring over 20 points per game for the Grizzlies, who still managed to finish dead last in their division again. Gay has remained a star for the Grizzlies since, but has not reached that 20-point plateau again.

4. Chris Kaman - LAC - +5.6 pts, +4.9 reb, +0.8 ast (13)
Despite missing 26 games due to injury, Kaman was extremely impressive in his 5th year in the league, finally rewarding the Clippers for making him the #6 pick in the draft back in 2003. He still has not come within 3 rebounds per game of the 12.7 he averaged that year, as injuries have become a theme for him in recent years.

5. Hedo Turkoglu - ORL - +6.2 pts, +1.7 reb, +1.8 ast (1)
Hedo had been a solid starter for years before he had his career season in 2008. The Magic's record obviously helped Turkoglu win this award, since his jump wasn't as impressive as the others on this list, but he left no doubt that he was good enough to be a star player after this season.

NBA Player of the Day

Kobe Bryant - LAL - 37 pts, 9 reb, 6 ast, 3 stl, 14-31 FG, 3-6 3P, 6-7 FT
Back to today's NBA, we see a very familiar face in the Player of the Day spot after Kobe's huge game against Portland last night. Not only did they stop Portland's 6-game winning streak, but Kobe hit the shot that clinched the win in overtime in the Rose Garden.

Predictions - 24 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Heat at Bulls - Bulls by 1
Celtics at Nuggets - Celtics by 1

College Basketball

West Virginia at (6) Pittsburgh - Pitt by 10
(10) Arizona at USC - Arizona by 1
Georgia at (13) Florida - Florida by 9
Marquette at (15) Connecticut - UConn by 7
Northeastern at George Mason - George Mason by 22
Belmont at Mercer - Belmont by 13

Prediction Results - 23 Feb

NBA: 10-2 (.833) 478-196 overall (.709)
College Basketball: 10-3 (.769) 483-112 overall (.812)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 124-79 overall (.611)

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

College Basketball Rankings - 23 Feb

1. Duke (2-0) (25-2) -23.21 (1)
2. Kansas (2-0) (26-2) -23.08 (3)
3. Ohio State (1-1) (26-2) -22.76 (2)
4. BYU (1-0) (25-2) -20.38 (6)
5. Texas (2-1) (24-4) -19.86 (4)
6. Washington (2-1) (19-8) -19.45 (7)
7. Purdue (2-0) (22-5) -19.20 (8)
8. Kentucky (1-0) (19-7) -18.82 (11)
9. Pittsburgh (1-1) (24-3) -18.61 (5)
10. San Diego State (2-0) (27-1) -17.63 (9)
11. Wisconsin (1-1) (20-6) -17.40 (10)
12. Georgetown (1-1) (21-6) -16.29 (12)
13. Arizona (2-0) (23-4) -15.92 (13)
14. North Carolina (1-0) (20-6) -15.71 (14)
15. Louisville (2-1) (21-7) -15.62 (24)
16. Syracuse (2-0) (23-6) -15.59 (17)
17. Belmont (2-0) (25-4) -15.33 (15)
18. Notre Dame (0-1) (21-5) -14.45 (16)
19. Maryland (1-0) (17-10) -14.42 (20)
20. Illinois (1-2) (17-11) -14.40 (19)
21. Missouri (1-0) (21-6) -14.03 (NR)
22. West Virginia (1-0) (17-9) -13.96 (NR)
23. George Mason (1-0) (23-5) -13.84 (21)
24. UNLV (1-0) (20-7) -13.643 (NR)
25. Villanova (1-1) (21-7) -13.641 (22)

Dropping out:
Vanderbilt (2-1) (20-7) -13.56 (23)
Connecticut (1-1) (20-6) -13.51 (25)
Saint Mary's (0-2) (22-6) -12.62 (18)

Ranked teams by conference:
Big East: 7
Big 12: 4
ACC: 3
Big 12: 3
MWC: 3
Pac 10: 2
SEC: 1
Atl Sun: 1
Col: 1

Bouncing In

There are some new Gaels in town. Iona is making a very strong late-season push, winning its two games this week by a combined 57 points, with both wins coming on the road. Neither opponent was very good, but the way they beat them is what's important, and they showed that they may deserve a spot in the tournament, especially if they can play as well as they did in December, when they nearly beat Syracuse on the road. Keep your eye on this team.

Utah State finally won a game over a good opponent for the first time this season, beating Saint Mary's on the road in BracketBusters last weekend. The 10-point victory helps their case for an at-large bid just in case they don't win the WAC, especially since they only have one bad loss this season, two weeks ago at Idaho.

Cincinnati has not lost a bad game all year, with all 6 of its losses coming to probable tournament teams from the Big East, and this week they strengthened their case with a big win over Louisville and a road win at Providence. They could clinch it this week with an upset of UConn.

Louisville may have lost that game to Cincinnati to start this week, but they followed up that disappointment with a huge upset of UConn and a blowout of Rutgers on the road. Look for them to continue their winning ways this week against Pitt.

Kentucky showed this week that they are not done with a huge road blowout of the South Carolina Gamecocks. They are still 3 games out of first with 4 to go, and their game with Florida this week should go a long way toward determining the SEC East champ.

Bubble Bursting

Saint Mary's was looking like they had put it all together again before they went to San Diego and lost to the San Diego Toreros, one of the worst teams in the entire country. It would have been a different story if they had been facing the top-10 ranked Aztecs from San Diego State, and maybe that's who they thought they were playing. They followed that up with a big home loss to Utah State in a game they needed in order to prove that they're March material.

Notre Dame's loss to West Virginia probably won't keep them out of March Madness, but their first loss in over a month was not even close. I've been saying for a while that the Irish are not a top 10 team, but if they get a good seed they may be setting themselves up for a second-round upset.

Kansas State may have followed up their big upset of #1 Kansas with another victory, but explain to me how the same team that beat Kansas by 16 last week only beat Oklahoma by 15 this week. Looks like that win over the Jayhawks may have been a fluke.

Minnesota spent a great deal of time on top of my overrated rankings earlier this season, and over the past month they have shown everyone exactly why. They have now lost 6 of their past 7 games, and are not looking like they have enough left to get back into the tournament picture.

Vanderbilt had been looking so good lately, pulling off huge wins over Alabama and Kentucky in their 5-game winning streak, but they again fell victim to their in-state rival Tennessee last night, the one SEC team they can't seem to play with. The Commodores fell back out of my top 25 this week, but they do have two chances left to impress the panel, closing the season against Kentucky and Florida.

NBA Player of the Day

Kevin Garnett - BOS - 24 pts, 12 reb, 6 ast, 2 blk, 11-16 FG, 2-2 FT
The Boston Celtics showed no ill effects from the long All-Star Weekend, with all of their stars playing well, with Garnett in particular having his best game in quite a while. The Celtics pulled away from Golden State in the second half, not allowing the Warriors to continue their hot streak or sneak back into the game.

Predictions - 23 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Rockets at Cavaliers - Rockets by 8
Pistons at Pacers - Pacers by 7
Kings at Magic - Magic by 14
Wizards at 76ers - 76ers by 11
Thunder at Spurs - Spurs by 7
Bulls at Raptors - Bulls by 8
Bucks at Knicks - Knicks by 4
Grizzlies at Timberwolves - Grizzlies by 4
Jazz at Mavericks - Mavs by 7
Hawks at Suns - Suns by 2
Clippers at Hornets - Hornets by 8
Lakers at Trail Blazers - Lakers by 2

College Basketball

(24) Temple at (1) Duke - Duke by 18
Colorado State at (7) BYU - BYU by 18
(8) Purdue at Indiana - Purdue by 6
(9) Notre Dame at Providence - Notre Dame by 4
Cincinnati at (11) Georgetown - Georgetown by 9
(12) Wisconsin at Michigan - Wisconsin by 2
Oklahoma at (17) Texas A&M - Texas A&M by 15
(19) North Carolina at North Carolina State - North Carolina by 3
Baylor at (21) Missouri - Missouri by 12
(22) Kentucky at Arkansas - Kentucky by 8
DePaul at (25) Saint John's - Saint John's by 19
UNLV at New Mexico - New Mexico by 2
Florida State at Maryland - Maryland by 9

Prediction Results - 22 Feb

NBA: 9-0 (1.000) 468-194 overall (.707)
College Basketball: 4-1 (.800) 473-109 overall (.813)

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

College Basketball Overrated and Underrated - 22 Feb

Only one team left my overrated rankings this week, and that was Utah State, which was very impressive in beating Saint Mary's on the road in its BracketBusters matchup. This week will hopefully be a different story, with all 5 overrated teams projected to lose a game. Here are this week's rankings, with previous ranking in parentheses.

Overrated

1. Xavier (1)
2. Texas A&M (2)
3. Florida (3)
4. Temple (4)
5. Connecticut

Xavier is sitting just inside the top 25 this week after taking over the lead in the Atlantic 10 conference. Their lead and their ranking could both be in trouble this week, because they have to make a trip upstate to visit Dayton, and I predict that they will come out with their second conference loss in that one.

Texas A&M saved their spot on this list by escaping with a 1-point win against Oklahoma State this week, a game I thought they would lose. Still, it wasn't impressive enough to convince me that they are not overrated, and this week I'm even more confident that they'll lose, this time when they visit Baylor.

Florida somehow moved up two spots in the polls this week despite playing only one game, which was a narrow victory over LSU, one of the very worst major-conference teams in the entire country. In my eyes, they should have been moved down, even with the win. This week they will start heading down after they are blown out by Kentucky.

Temple looks poised to overtake current Atlantic 10 leader Xavier this week, but they won't finish the week unblemished. They have a huge game with Duke tomorrow, and there's a good chance they'll drop from these rankings no matter the outcome. Either they'll beat Duke and shed the tag, or they'll get blown out and drop from the top 25.

UConn moved back into the overrated rankings this week after a 13-point loss to Louisville didn't drop them as far as it should have in the polls. This week it will be the Cincinnati Bearcats that beat the Huskies, and the next week it will be West Virginia taking them down.

Underrated

1. Washington (1)
2. Belmont (2)
3. Illinois (3)
4. Maryland (4)
5. Kentucky (5)

The Washington Huskies blew a golden opportunity for a quality win with a 1-point road loss at Arizona this week, and their remaining schedule is not that difficult. They are not leaving Seattle again until the Pac-10 Tournament, which is where they are hoping for a rematch with the Wildcats.

Belmont beat their closest conference competition, East Tennessee State, by 10 points this week before blowing out bottom-dwelling USC-Upstate on Saturday. They have already clinched the regular-season conference title, but they may still need to win the conference tournament to guarantee a spot in March Madness. It's too bad they haven't been able to gain the respect they deserve.

Illinois still has to face the two best teams in the Big Ten on the road before the regular season ends, and even though Illinois is better than people think, they aren't good enough to beat those teams away from home. If they happen to pull one of them off, they could conceivably move into the polls, but I doubt it either way.

Maryland is in the same boat as Illinois, a good team from a good conference that hasn't been able to pick up a good, quality win in a while. The Terrapins play North Carolina this week, but don't expect too much from Maryland, because the Tar Heels are one of the hottest teams in the country right now.

With their blowout win over South Carolina, it appears that the Kentucky Wildcats are back. They can make an even bigger statement this week when the Florida Gators come to town, and I see a very big win in Kentucky's future.

Predictions - 22 Feb

NBA

Pacers at Wizards - Pacers by 3
Raptors at Bobcats - Bobcats by 5
Rockets at Pistons - Rockets by 1
Kings at Heat - Heat by 16
Timberwolves at Bucks - Bucks by 7
Clippers at Thunder - Thunder by 8
Grizzlies at Nuggets - Nuggets by 3
Celtics at Warriors - Celtics by 5
Hawks at Lakers - Lakers by 7

College Basketball

Illinois at (3) Ohio State - Ohio State by 13
Iowa State at (5) Texas - Texas by 18
(16) Louisville at Rutgers - Louisville by 2
Tennessee at (18 Vanderbilt - Vandy by 12
Washington at Seattle - Washington by 21

Prediction Results - 21 Feb

College Basketball: 1-1 (.500) 469-108 overall (.813)

Monday, February 21, 2011

NBA Rankings - 21 Feb

With the All-Star weekend eating up half of the week, no team played more than two games this week, and as a result Cleveland was able to complete its first undefeated week of the season, winning a very improbable game against the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers, the same team that beat them by 55 points last month. San Antonio gave the top spot back to Miami with their loss to Chicago, which kept the two month long game of hot potato for the top spot intact. Here are this week's rankings, with team name followed by weekly record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Miami (2-0) (41-15) -7.91 (2)
2. San Antonio (1-1) (46-10) -7.46 (1)
3. Boston (1-0) (40-14) -6.56 (3)
4. Orlando (1-0) (36-21) -6.32 (5)
5. Chicago (2-0) (38-16) -6.19 (6)
6. LA Lakers (0-2) (38-19) -5.67 (4)
7. Dallas (2-0) (40-16) -4.22 (7)
8. Oklahoma City (1-0) (35-19) -3.35 (10)
9. Denver (1-1) (32-25) -3.07 (9)
10. New Orleans (0-2) (33-25) -2.82 (8)
11. Memphis (1-0) (31-26) -2.34 (12)
12. Philadelphia (1-1) (27-29) -2.16 (11)
13. Portland (2-0) (32-24) -1.49 (15)
14. Atlanta (1-1) (34-21) -1.26 (13)
15. Houston (1-1) (26-31) -1.20 (14)
16. New York (1-0) (28-26) -1.06 (16)
17. Phoenix (1-1) (27-27) -0.26 (18)
18. Indiana (0-2) (24-30) -0.22 (17)
19. Utah (0-2) (31-26) -0.01 (19)
20. Milwaukee (1-1) (21-34) 0.53 (20)
21. Golden State (2-0) (26-29) 1.54 (22)
22. LA Clippers (1-1) (21-35) 1.96 (21)
23. Charlotte (1-1) (24-32) 2.09 (23)
24. Detroit (1-1) (21-36) 3.02 (24)
25. Toronto (0-1) (15-41) 4.73 (26)
26. Sacramento (0-2) (13-40) 4.91 (25)
27. Minnesota (0-2) (13-43) 5.02 (28)
28. New Jersey (0-2) (17-40) 5.19 (29)
29. Washington (0-1) (15-39) 5.43 (27)
30. Cleveland (1-0) (10-46) 8.76 (30)

In Hot

When Sacramento arrived in Oklahoma City, they were one of the hottest teams, having challenged three straight playoff contenders, including the Thunder, before beating the Suns in their next game. So when the Thunder dominated the Kings by 30 points, it showed that the Thunder could learn from their mistakes, and they jumped two spots in the rankings as a result, landing in the #8 slot, a season best.

At this point, any time the Cavaliers win it's impressive, but no one expected them to take down the Lakers just one month after they were completely embarrassed by the defending champs. Cleveland has now won two of their past three games, and their next three opponents are all average teams. I'm not going to say that they're starting a winning streak, but I wouldn't be surprised if they won again before the month is over.

Golden State won three straight games heading into the break, all over potential playoff teams, including a road win against the Jazz. Overall, they have won 7 of their last 9 and look like they could possibly make a run at the playoffs, with a record just 3 games under .500 as of today. Monta Ellis seems to be using his All-Star snub to score more points, hitting at least 30 4 times this month.

Out Cold

The Lakers ended their East Coast road trip horribly, getting blown out in Orlando and Charlotte before turning in their worst performance of the season in Cleveland, losing by 5 to a team that shouldn't be beating anybody. There are good signs, though. Kobe was named MVP of the All-Star Game this weekend, and Pau Gasol had 30 points and 20 rebounds against Cleveland. Now if they can just put it all together.

The Kings were looking so good just one week ago. They were coming off 4 straight good games against teams with playoff potential, then everything fell apart against Oklahoma City and Dallas, both of which handled Sacramento easily. It's bad timing for them to go cold, with a visit to both Florida teams coming up this week.

Washington may have won their first road game in Cleveland last week, but they didn't even come close to getting their second one this week. The Wizards were totally manhandled by Orlando in their final game before the All-Star weekend, which killed the momentum of two wins in three games for Washington.

Predictions - 21 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

College Basketball

Oklahoma State at (2) Kansas - Kansas by 23
(20) Syracuse at (14) Villanova - Nova by 5

Prediction Results - 20 Feb

College Basketball: 6-0 (1.000) 468-107 overall (.814)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 122-78 overall (.610)

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Predictions - 20 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

College Basketball

(3) Ohio State at (11) Purdue - Purdue by 2
Georgia Tech at (5) Duke - Duke by 25
Penn State at (10) Wisconsin - Wisconsin by 16
(15) Florida at LSU - Florida by 10
Saint Joseph at (25) Temple - Temple by 21
North Carolina State at Maryland - Maryland by 14

Prediction Results - 19 Feb

College Basketball: 15-5 (.750) 462-107 overall (.812)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 121-78 overall (.608)

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Predictions - 19 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

College Basketball

Colorado at (1) Kansas - Kansas by 18
(2) Texas at Nebraska - Texas by 5
(4) Pittsburgh at Saint John's - Pitt by 1
(6) San Diego State at Air Force - San Diego State by 8
(7) Notre Dame at West Virginia - West Virginia by 3
(8) BYU at TCU - BYU by 14
(9) Georgetown at South Florida - Georgetown by 9
Washington at (13) Arizona - Arizona by 2
(14) Villanova at DePaul - Nova by 11
(17) Texas A&M at Oklahoma State - Oklahoma State by 2
(18) Vanderbilt at Auburn - Vandy by 16
Boston College at (19) North Carolina - North Carolina by 14
Rutgers at (20) Syracuse - Syracuse by 15
(21) Missouri at Iowa State - Missouri by 1
South Carolina at (22) Kentucky - Kentucky by 21
(24) Utah State at (23) Saint Mary's - Saint Mary's by 7
USC-Upstate at Belmont - Belmont by 30
Illinois at Michigan State - Michigan State by 2
George Mason at Northern Iowa - George Mason by 6
Virginia Tech at Virginia - VTech by 6

Prediction Results - 18 Feb

College Basketball: 1-0 (1.000) 447-102 overall (.814)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 119-77 overall (.607)

Friday, February 18, 2011

NBA MVP Rankings - 18 Feb

With the Lakers struggling this week, both of LA's MVP candidates took a hit in the rankings this week. There was also some movement in each of the other award rankings, but the overall leaders remain unchanged yet again. Here are the rankings going into All-Star Weekend, with last week's ranking in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James - MIA - 26.1 pts, 7.4 reb, 7.3 ast (1)
Do you know who the last player to average at least those numbers for a full season was? Michael Jordan in 1989, when he averaged 32.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 8.0 assists. It has only been done by 3 other players in history: Larry Bird, John Havlicek (twice), and Oscar Robertson (6 times).

2. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 25.4 pts, 6.9 reb, 4.3 ast (2)
Only two guards in the last 45 years have ever had the kind of season that Wade is having, Michael Jordan and Clyde Drexler, both in 1989. While LeBron may be the better and more famous player of the pair, Wade is nearly his equal in both categories.

3. Derrick Rose - CHI - 24.9 pts, 4.4 reb, 8.2 ast (3)
Only two guards in history can match Rose's contributions this year, Jerry West and Oscar Robertson, and none has done it in the past 40 years. Even the great Michael Jordan never reached the assist totals that Rose has attained so far, and now Rose is joining the two above him on this list as starters for the Eastern Conference this weekend.

4. Kevin Durant - OKC - 28.9 pts, 7.0 reb, 2.8 ast (4)
Kevin Durant, much like D-Rose, had his breakout MVP-candidate season in his third year in the league. Unfortunately, the only category in which Durant has shown an increase this year is minutes played, but even with him just a notch below last year, Durant is one of the best in the game.

5. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 22.2 pts, 5.0 reb, 8.6 ast (7)
Only one other player in history has had this kind of productions in one of his first three seasons, and his name was Oscar Robertson, who did it in each of his first three seasons. The only players to ever do it later in their career were Magic Johnson, Gary Payton, and Chris Paul. And to think he wasn't named an All-Star starter.

6. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 25.1 pts, 5.4 reb, 4.8 ast (5)
No player Kobe's age (32) has ever put up the numbers he is putting up this year, which is pretty good considering that he never seems to be completely healthy. The closest was Larry Bird, who put up similar numbers at age 31.

7. Pau Gasol - LAL - 18.8 pts, 10.4 reb, 1.8 blk (6)
Of foreign-born NBA players, only Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, and Yao Ming have even had the scoring, rebounding, and shot blocking numbers Gasol has turned in this year. He's dropped off a lot since the beginning of the year, but it's still a career year for him.

8. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 22.7 pts, 6.6 reb, 2.6 ast (8)
Dirk's numbers may be average for him, but he is the best player on the team by far, and the Mavericks are having their best season since 2007, when they had the best record and Dirk was named the MVP.

9. Dwight Howard - ORL - 22.8 pts, 13.8 reb, 2.1 blk (9)
The last player to record the same scoring, rebounding, and shot blocking numbers that Howard has put up so far this year was Kevin Garnett in his MVP season (2004). If Howard can get the Magic closer to the top of the East, he would have a real argument for the award.

10. Amare Stoudemire - NYK - 26.1 pts, 8.6 reb, 2.2 blk (NR)
Only two players in history have had a season like Amare's in their first season with a new team: Shaq and Kareem, both in their first seasons in Los Angeles. Amare's career year has kept him in the MVP race despite New York's .500 record.

Dropping out:
Al Horford

Just outside:
Carlos Boozer, Al Horford, LaMarcus Aldridge

Rookie of the Year

1. Blake Griffin - LAC - 22.8 pts, 12.6 reb, 3.5 ast (1)
Griffin isn't the runaway Rookie of the Year just because it's a weak class this year. Only two other rookies in history have been this good, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Elgin Baylor, both first-ballot Hall-of-Famers. He is very deserving of his spot on the All-Star team.

2. John Wall - WAS - 15.0 pts, 4.2 reb, 8.9 ast (2)
Wall's rookie season has been overshadowed by Griffin's, but the only other rookie ever to put up the numbers Wall has was Oscar Robertson, one of the greatest players of all time. Not bad company to be keeping, even if he's not Rookie of the Year.

3. DeMarcus Cousins - SAC - 14.0 pts, 8.3 reb, 1.8 ast (3)
In his last 10 games, Cousins is averaging 19.3 points and 11.6 rebounds, not too far off from what Griffin is averaging for the season. The problem is that he keeps getting in trouble, getting fined and suspended by the team for starting a fight with a teammate after he didn't get to take the last shot against Oklahoma City this week.

4. Landry Fields - NYK - 10.1 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.0 ast (4)
Fields is one of only two players in all of my rankings that finished college before jumping to the NBA (Jason Terry is the other). The maturity he gained in four years at Stanford are probably a big part of the reason that he's been able to contribute so quickly on a playoff team, which no other rookie can say.

5. Evan Turner - PHI - 7.2 pts, 4.4 reb, 2.1 ast (NR)
This year's rookie class is so bad overall that Turner has re-entered the rookie rankings after a bad week. He scored 10 points in Philly's win over Houston on Wednesday, the first time he reached that milestone in February.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Jason Terry - DAL - 15.9 pts, 1.9 reb, 4.3 ast (1)
Terry is still scoring at the same pace he has for most of his career, but his assist totals this season are the highest he's had in 4 years. He recorded 7 assists in each of Dallas' road wins this week.

2. Ramon Sessions - CLE - 12.3 pts, 2.9 reb, 5.3 ast (2)
Sessions scored a season-high 32 points in his return to the bench on Wednesday, and the result was a huge upset over the defending-champion Lakers. His stay on the bench may be short-lived, though, because rumor is that Mo Williams is injured again.

3. Jamal Crawford - ATL - 15.0 pts, 1.7 reb, 3.4 ast (3)
The people who still think Crawford should win this award just need to look at his stats compared to Terry's. Terry is averaging higher numbers across the board, and happens to be playing for a better team. Advantage Terry.

4. Shawn Marion - DAL - 11.6 pts, 6.6 reb, 1.2 ast (5)
Four straight double-digit scoring games from Marion off the bench results in 3 wins and a one-point road loss. Looks like Terry isn't the only important player coming off the bench in Dallas.

5. Thaddeus Young - PHI - 12.1 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.1 ast (4)
Young averaged 20 points over the 76ers' last 3 games, but only put up 4 points on 2-9 shooting against the Spurs last Friday. Maybe he's just more comfortable playing on the road.

Most Improved Player

1. Dorell Wright - GSW - +9.4 pts, +2.4 reb, +1.9 ast (1)
Wright bounced back from the absolute shutdown the Suns put on him last week by improving his scoring in each game this week, finishing up with 22 points in the Warriors' win at Utah on Wednesday.

2. Kevin Love - MIN - +7.1 pts, +4.5 reb, +0.1 ast (3)
Love has 51 double-doubles in 56 games this season, breaking the record for double-doubles before the All-Star break that was set by George Mikan in 1950. Love definitely deserves his spot on the All-Star team, and if the Timberwolves weren't so horrible, he'd be in the running for MVP.

3. D.J. Augustin - CHA - +7.8 pts, +1.6 reb, +3.7 ast (2)
Augustin is playing with an injured wrist, and it's obviously having an impact on his production. This week he averaged only 5 points on 26% shooting from the field. The All-Star break is coming at a good time for the Bobcats' point guard, because he'll be able to rest it for a few days.

4. Nick Young - WAS - +9.0 pts, +1.3 reb, +0.6 ast (4)
Young was great in Washington's first road win of the season, scoring 31 points as the Wizards beat the Cavaliers, but he scored only 4 points the night before against San Antonio, resulting in an ugly loss. He missed Wednesday's game against Orlando with a knee injury, but he probably wouldn't have played well anyway.

5. Eric Gordon - LAC - +7.2 pts, +0.6 reb, +1.5 ast (NR)
Gordon has missed the last 13 games with a wrist injury, but could rejoin the team after the All-Star break, which would be great news for the Clippers, who have struggled in his absence. He made his way back into the top 5 this week after Jrue Holiday had a very bad week, and no one else stepped up enough to take his spot.

NBA Player of the Day

Derrick Rose - CHI - 42 pts, 5 reb, 8 ast, 18-28 FG, 6-6 FT
Rose set a new career high in points last night and hit a ton of huge shots down the stretch as the Bulls pulled away to beat the league-leading San Antonio Spurs heading into the All-Star break. Rose has proven that he deserves his starting spot on the All-Star team and consideration for the league MVP.

Predictions - 18 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

College Basketball

(12) Connecticut at (16) Louisville - Louisville by 6

Prediction Results - 17 Feb

NBA: 2-0 (1.000) 459-194 overall (.703)
College Basketball: 4-0 (1.000) 446-102 overall (.814)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 118-77 overall (.605)

Thursday, February 17, 2011

College Basketball Tournament Predictions - 17 Feb

Joe Lunardi of ESPN has a regular feature he calls Bracketology, in which he predicts which teams will be chosen to participate in the NCAA Tournament and where they will be seeded, and he has a very high success rate. Based on his predictions for teams and seeding, I have applied my formula to determine which teams are most likely to win each game, and I'm sharing the results with you. The number in parentheses is the team's seed, and any team in italics represents an upset.

Round of 32

(1) Ohio State
(8) Xavier
(5) Arizona
(4) Louisville
(6) Missouri
(3) Florida
(7) Illinois
(2) Duke

(1) Kansas
(8) Florida State
(5) Vanderbilt
(4) Connecticut
(11) Michigan State
(3) Georgetown
(7) Washington
(2) BYU

(1) Pittsburgh
(8) George Mason
(5) Syracuse
(4) North Carolina
(11) Kansas State
(3) Purdue
(7) Saint John's
(2) San Diego State

(1) Texas
(8) Saint Mary's
(5) Kentucky
(4) Villanova
(6) West Virginia
(3) Wisconsin
(10) Virginia Tech
(2) Notre Dame

Sweet 16

(1) Ohio State
(5) Arizona
(6) Missouri
(2) Duke

(1) Kansas
(5) Vanderbilt
(3) Georgetown
(2) BYU

(1) Pittsburgh
(4) North Carolina
(3) Purdue
(2) San Diego State

(1) Texas
(5) Kentucky
(3) Wisconsin
(2) Notre Dame

Elite Eight

(1) Ohio State
(2) Duke
(1) Kansas
(2) BYU
(1) Pittsburgh
(3) Purdue
(1) Texas
(3) Wisconsin

Final Four

(2) Duke
(1) Kansas
(3) Purdue
(1) Texas

Championship

(2) Duke
(1) Texas

Champion

(1) Texas

I have predicted 12 upsets over the course of this tournament, but that does not mean that there will only be 12. These are just the most likely ones, but history has shown that there will be other unexpected ones, and many of the winners I picked were very close to losing. When the actual bracket is announced, I plan to do a full rundown of each team's chance of winning it all.

NBA Player of the Day

LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - 34 pts, 7 reb, 4 ast, 13-18 FG, 8-9 FT
Aldridge has the Trail Blazers on fire heading into the All-Star break, with 6 straight wins (the league's longest streak) and 5th place in the West currently. Aldridge should come back from the break well-rested and ready to continue his march to the playoffs, although had he made the All-Star team like he deserved, he wouldn't be getting this important weekend of rest.

Predictions - 17 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Spurs at Bulls - Bulls by 1
Mavericks at Suns - Mavs by 1

College Basketball

Washington State at (13) Arizona - Arizona by 12
Richmond at (25) Temple - Temple by 10
East Tennessee State at Belmont - Belmont by 17
Washington At Arizona State - Washington by 11

Prediction Results - 16 Feb

NBA: 6-6 (.500) 457-194 overall (.702)
College Basketball: 10-1 (.909) 442-102 overall (.813)
Upsets: 5-3 (.625) 117-77 overall (.603)

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

College Basketball Rankings - 16 Feb

The final undefeated team finally lost this week, and as a result there is a new #1 for the 4th straight week. A couple of mid-major teams are finally making their move, with two entering the top 25 this week and 5 in the next 15 spots. Any one of the top 10 teams still has a real possibility at winning the championship this year, which pretty much makes this a wide-open field. Here are this week's rankings, with team name followed by weekly record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Duke (2-0) (23-2) -23.00 (3)
2. Ohio State (1-1) (25-1) -22.04 (1)
3. Kansas (1-1) (24-2) -21.47 (2)
4. Texas (2-0) (22-3) -19.02 (5)
5. Pittsburgh (1-0) (23-2) -18.92 (4)
6. BYU (2-0) (24-2) -18.77 (6)
7. Washington (2-0) (17-7) -18.55 (9)
8. Purdue (1-0) (20-5) -18.45 (10)
9. San Diego State (1-0) (25-1) -17.67 (11)
10. Wisconsin (2-0) (19-5) -17.52 (8)
11. Kentucky (1-1) (18-7) -17.12 (7)
12. Georgetown (2-0) (20-5) -16.18 (15)
13. Arizona (1-0) (21-4) -15.97 (16)
14. North Carolina (2-1) (19-6) -15.70 (12)
15. Belmont (1-0) (23-4) -15.69 (18)
16. Notre Dame (2-0) (21-4) -15.17 (23)
17. Syracuse (1-2) (21-6) -14.84 (13)
18. Saint Mary's (2-0) (22-4) -14.79 (NR)
19. Illinois (1-1) (16-9) -14.54 (14)
20. Maryland (1-2) (16-10) -14.53 (21)
21. George Mason (2-0) (22-5) -14.19 (NR)
22. Villanova (1-2) (20-6) -14.16 (17)
23. Vanderbilt (2-0) (18-6) -14.09 (20)
24. Louisville (1-1) (19-6) -13.88 (22)
25. Connecticut (1-1) (19-5) -13.53 (19)

Dropping out:
Missouri (2-0) (20-6) -13.10 (24)
Marquette (1-2) (15-11) -11.69 (25)

Making a Push

Saint John's is on fire lately. They have now won 5 of their last six games, including a big win over Duke 2 weeks ago, and the last three wins have all come over Big East teams that are likely to be playing games that matter in March. The last two wins, over Cincinnati and Marquette, were especially impressive, because they came on the road, and Saint John's now has 7 wins over teams that are likely to participate in March Madness, with only 2 bad losses against them.

Kansas State's win over Kansas this week after their in-state rivals had been named #1 earlier in the day was a huge boost to a team still hoping for a tournament berth. Their previous game, a two-point loss at Colorado, was also somewhat impressive, because the Buffaloes have been one of the toughest teams to beat this year in the Big 12. If they win the games they're expected to the rest of the way, they're in.

Saint Mary's took care of business on the road this week, winning at both Santa Clara and San Francisco, and their biggest win this season, over Saint John's in November, is starting to look even better after the week the Red Storm had. It also helps that three of the 4 teams that have beaten them (BYU, San Diego State, and Vanderbilt) have also been playing very well lately.

Notre Dame had two very impressive victories over Louisville and South Florida this week, and have also been helped out by their 8 wins over likely tournament teams, including an early-season victory over Wisconsin, the latest team to upset a #1. They still have a tough road ahead, but they have established themselves as one of the best in the very tough Big East.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs may have only one quality win this year, over Marquette back in November, but three of their losses were to the other teams on this hot list, Saint Mary's, Notre Dame, and Kansas State. They appeared to be out of the running last week after they lost to Memphis, but what is March Madness without the Zags?

Stepping Back

Marquette barely beat South Florida this week before losing consecutive games to Georgetown and Saint John's, but even with those two losses contributing to their total of 11, the Golden Eagles should not be counted out. All 11 of those losses have come to teams currently ranked above 36 in my rankings, and they have managed to get three wins against teams in that same range.

Kansas celebrated their move back to #1 by losing to Kansas State the very same day, and it didn't help that the game wasn't even close. The Jayhawks are probably still a #1 seed in the tournament, but they chose a bad time to have their second letdown of the season. The toughest challenge they have left is the last game of the season against Missouri.

Kentucky's loss to Vanderbilt was not unexpected, but their win over Mississippi State last night was much closer than it should have been. I have had the Wildcats ranked in the top 10 all season, but that narrow escape knocked them to #11 for the first time all season.

Two weeks ago, Duquesne was on an 11-game winning streak and had spent a couple days in the top 25, but they followed that up with two surprising losses at Saint Bonaventure and against Xavier at home. The Dukes must beat Richmond to end the regular season to strengthen their case for making it to March.

After one week as one of the hottest teams in the country, Syracuse returned to the cold list this week, where it had spent the previous two weeks. Their win over West Virginia on Valentine's Day saved them from being named the coldest team of the week, but losing to Georgetown and Louisville didn't help them, especially now that they've lost 6 of their last 9.

NBA Player of the Day

Dwyane Wade - MIA - 41 pts, 12 reb, 3 ast, 2 stl, 16-29 FG, 1-4 3P, 8-10 FT
Channing Frye may have scored a career-high 31 points for Phoenix last night, but Wade matched that total in the first half alone as Miami beat the Indiana Pacers on the road last night. Not only was he the best player yesterday, but he had the play of the day also, with a court-length alley-oop pass to LeBron James that has been running on SportsCenter all morning.

Predictions - 16 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Wizards at Magic - Magic by 14
Heat at Raptors - Heat by 10
Nets at Celtics - Celtics by 15
Lakers at Cavaliers - Lakers by 13
Pacers at Pistons - Pacers by 1
Hawks at Knicks - Knicks by 2
Clippers at Timberwolves - Wolves by 1
Kings at Mavericks - Mavs by 12
76ers at Rockets - Rockets by 3
Nuggets at Bucks - Bucks by 1
Warriors at Jazz - Jazz by 5
Hornets at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 2

College Basketball

Oklahoma State at (2) Texas - Texas by 19
South Florida at (4) Pittsburgh - Pitt by 25
(5) Duke at Virginia - Duke by 16
New Mexico at (6) San Diego State - San Diego State by 13
(9) Georgetown at (12) Connecticut - UConn by 3
(10) Wisconsin at (11) Purdue - Purdue by 7
(16) Louisville at Cincinnati - Cincinnati by 3
Iowa State at (17) Texas A&M - Texas A&M by 10
(18) Vanderbilt at Georgia - Vandy by 1
(23) Saint Mary's at San Diego - Saint Mary's by 18
Michigan at Illinois - Illinois by 12

Prediction Results - 15 Feb

NBA: 5-1 (.833) 451-188 overall (.706)
College Basketball: 6-0 (1.000) 432-101 overall (.811)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 112-74 overall (.602)

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

College Basketball Overrated and Underrated - 15 Feb

It was a strange week for the teams in these rankings. Only one team from the overrated rankings lost, and it wasn't the one I predicted. The overrated teams did themselves no favors, with 3 of them losing this week, two of them to teams they shouldn't have lost to. Only one team exited the rankings this week, Notre Dame, who responded to the label of overrated by beating Louisville and then dumping South Florida on the road, earning their way off the list the hard way. Here are the updated rankings, with previous ranking in parentheses.

Overrated

1. Xavier
2. Texas A&M (1)
3. Florida (2)
4. Temple (5)
5. Utah State (4)

Xavier moved into the AP poll this week after two impressive victories over Georgia and Duquesne, both top 65 teams. The problem I have with them being ranked is that they lost just one week before that to Charlotte, currently ranked 175th in my rankings. The only victories they have earned over top 50 schools so far were that win over Duquesne and their earlier win over Temple, but neither is a top 30 team, which makes two losses to teams ranked below 170 (they also lost to Miami-Ohio) more important, and basically cancels out the good those wins have done. They probably won't lose again this season, with the toughest game coming February 27 at Dayton.

This week, Texas A&M moves down a spot after pulling off a tough overtime victory at Colorado, a game I predicted they would lose, but it's not enough to prove they're not overrated. They beat Texas Tech 3 nights later by the same margin, 3 points, which shows me that they still have some work to do. They still have 3 losses left this season, one for each week, and this week's loss will come Saturday at Oklahoma State.

Florida stayed in the overrated ranks this week after a single-point home victory over Tennessee, which negated the effect of the huge road win at South Carolina earlier in the week. They still have to face Kentucky and Vanderbilt on the road, and a win in either of those games would convince me to take them off this list, but I don't see that happening.

Temple had the misfortune of having to play Duquesne and Xavier, the other two power teams in the Atlantic 10, on the road, losing both of the very important games. They still have to face off with Duke on the road, but the rest of the schedule is relatively smooth sailing. This week's test is against Richmond, but they'll have the home court advantage, which should be enough for them to win.

The Idaho Vandals shocked the world this week when they took down the mighty Utah State Aggies up in Moscow. I, for one, did not see it coming, but it did not knock Utah State from the national rankings, which seems mighty strange considering that they play in the WAC, a conference that is criticized for being weak. I thought that any loss would knock them out, but I expected that loss to come this weekend at Saint Mary's, which is still looking like a good possibility.

Underrated

1. Washington (2)
2. Belmont (4)
3. Illinois (3)
4. Maryland (1)
5. Kentucky (5)

Washington bounced back nicely after their surprising 3-game losing streak, beating Cal and Stanford soundly to take back the momentum they had lost, and just in time. This weekend they head to Tucson to face the Arizona Wildcats in a game that will be very important in deciding the regular season conference champion. Although I'm picking them to lose that game, a win is not out of the question, and would help them make their way back toward the top 25.

Belmont is still flying under the radar, and that is unlikely to change before the tournament. The Bruins have made only 3 tournament appearances in their history, losing in the first round each time, but I predict that they will win at least one game this year, most likely an upset of a much higher seed, since they are currently projected as a 12th seed.

Illinois upset Minnesota this week, just as I predicted, then blew a golden opportunity to gain some momentum by losing to Purdue in their next game. Two upsets in a row would have thrust them back into the national spotlight, but all that people are seeing right now is 6 losses in 9 games, which is not as bad as it sounds when you consider that 4 of those losses came on the road to teams they should have lost to. Expect more of the same this week when they visit Michigan State.

Maryland is another team that is not helping its own cause by losing games they should be winning. This week Boston College was the team taking advantage of the Terps, and tonight it will be Virginia Tech's turn. If Maryland somehow survives, they would certainly be deserving of at least a few votes in the polls.

Kentucky has lost 3 of their last 4 games, but all three of those losses were on the road to good teams in the SEC. I still believe that Kentucky is the best team in the conference, but that the gap is much closer than most people thought earlier this season. Their tough road tests are pretty much a thing of the past, so now it's time to finish strong.

NBA Player of the Day

Courtney Lee - HOU - 22 pts, 6 reb, 4 ast, 2 stl, 8-14 FG, 5-7 3P, 1-1 FT
Lee took control of Houston's upset win over Denver off the bench yesterday, scoring 22 points in just 25 minutes of action, including 5 for 7 from 3-point range. Lee probably won't be a fixture in this spot like some other players, but he should definitely enjoy the night that he was the league's best player.

Predictions - 15 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Heat at Pacers - Heat by 4
Bobcats at Bulls - Bulls by 10
Kings at Thunder - Thunder by 10
76ers at Grizzlies - Grizzlies by 3
Jazz at Suns - Suns by 3
Hornets at Warriors - Hornets by 3

College Basketball

Michigan State at (3) Ohio State - Ohio State by 17
(14) Villanova at Seton Hall - Nova by 1
Wake Forest at (19) North Carolina - UNC by 30
Texas Tech at (21) Missouri - Mizzou by 20
Mississippi State at (22) Kentucky - Kentucky by 25
Maryland at Virginia Tech - VTech by 5

Prediction Results - 14 Feb

NBA: 5-1 (.833) 446-187 overall (.705)
College Basketball: 1-1 (.500) 426-101 overall (.808)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 111-74 overall (.600)

Monday, February 14, 2011

NBA Rankings - 14 Feb

The most unpredictable week of the NBA season so far left us with only one team (Portland) that did not lose this week and one team (Atlanta) that failed to win a game. The result is that very few teams did enough to improve their standing much, because everybody's records this week were pretty similar. Even Cleveland won a game this week, but by losing to Washington at home by 15, they kept themselves locked into that bottom spot for the eighth straight week. Also, there is a new #1 for the eighth straight week, with San Antonio and Miami switching every week for the past two months, like a game of hot potato between the two teams most likely to win the title. If one of them can't establish themselves as the best, they just might let someone else slip in, but no one seemed to want it enough this week. Here are the new rankings, with team name followed by weekly record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. San Antonio (3-1) (45-9) -7.53 (2)
2. Miami (2-1) (39-15) -7.48 (1)
3. Boston (1-2) (39-14) -6.21 (3)
4. LA Lakers (3-1) (38-17) -6.18 (4)
5. Orlando (3-1) (35-21) -5.66 (5)
6. Chicago (2-1) (36-16) -5.61 (6)
7. Dallas (3-1) (38-16) -3.62 (7)
8. New Orleans (1-3) (33-23) -2.76 (8)
9. Denver (1-3) (31-24) -2.69 (9)
10. Oklahoma City (1-2) (34-19) -2.15 (10)
11. Philadelphia (3-1) (26-28) -1.81 (16)
12. Memphis (3-1) (30-26) -1.79 (12)
13. Atlanta (0-2) (33-20) -0.82 (11)
14. Houston (1-2) (25-20) -0.801 (13)
15. Portland (3-0) (30-24) -0.796 (15)
16. New York (1-2) (27-26) -0.49 (14)
17. Indiana (3-1) (24-28) -0.23 (17)
18. Phoenix (3-1) (26-26) 0.11 (19)
19. Utah (1-2) (31-24) 0.31 (18)
20. Milwaukee (1-3) (20-33) 1.18 (20)
21. LA Clippers (1-3) (20-34) 2.35 (22)
22. Golden State (2-2) (24-29) 2.44 (21)
23. Charlotte (2-2) (23-31) 2.73 (24)
24. Detroit (1-3) (20-35) 3.48 (23)
25. Sacramento (1-3) (13-38) 4.50 (26)
26. Toronto (1-3) (15-40) 5.06 (25)
27. Washington (2-1) (15-38) 5.17 (28)
28. Minnesota (2-2) (13-41) 5.23 (27)
29. New Jersey (2-1) (17-38) 5.61 (29)
30. Cleveland (1-3) (9-46) 9.95 (30)

Burning With Love

No one was hotter than the Philadelphia 76ers this week. They blew out Atlanta and Minnesota, and in between those two they sandwiched a huge upset win over San Antonio and a narrow loss to Orlando, both of which are top 5 teams. The great week showed in the rankings as well, with Philly moving up 5 spots to set up camp just outside the top 10. With a lot of struggling teams sitting just ahead of them, they may be moving in next week.

Washington was blown out by the Spurs this week, but I think it would have been a bigger surprise if they hadn't. The reason they are on the hot list is the pair of 15-point wins that came before and after the loss to San Antonio. One was against the Milwaukee Bucks, who are still in contention for a playoff berth, and the other was a road win (their first of the season) over the Cleveland Cavaliers, who were coming off their first victory in nearly two months.

Before last night's embarrassing loss to the Sacramento Kings, the Phoenix Suns were the hottest team in the league, beating Golden State by 12 on the road and by 24 at home while holding them to 92 and 88 points in those games, then beat Utah in Salt Lake City by 12 in the Jazz's first game without Jerry Sloan in over 22 years.

The Flame is Out

The Atlanta Hawks played only two games this week, both at home, and both were upset losses. The first, a 34-point blowout at the hand of the 76ers, can be partially attributed to the absence of Al Horford, the Hawks' best player. The loss to Charlotte hurt just as much, because Horford was back on the court and they still managed to lose to a team that may not make the playoffs.

Oklahoma City played three teams this week that would not make the playoffs if they started today, and came away with only one victory in those three games. The lone victory came as a result of a missed shot by last season's Rookie of the Year, Tyreke Evans, which came after MVP candidate Kevin Durant missed two very important free throws. Not the type of week any playoff contender should have.

New Orleans has been stone cold since their 10-game winning streak ended, but not every night. They lost by 12 at home to Minnesota this week, then lost to New Jersey in overtime two night later. After those two demoralizing losses, they went to Orlando, where they beat the Magic by 6. And just when you thought they had it figured out again, they went back home and lost by 9 to Chicago. They have been a team of extremes for the past few weeks.

NBA Player of the Day

LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - 36 pts, 4 reb, 3 ast, 2 stl, 12-17 FG, 12-13 FT
Aldridge has been one of the best players in the entire league for the past month, and he has especially turned it on since he was snubbed by the coaches in their All-Star reserve voting. If Tim Duncan hadn't been given the lifetime achievement vote, Aldridge would have made the team easily, and he should have anyway.

Predictions - 14 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Spurs at Nets - Spurs by 10
Lakers at Bobcats - Lakers by 6
Hawks at Pistons - Hawks by 2
Clippers at Bucks - Bucks by 4
Trail Blazers at Timberwolves - Blazers by 3
Nuggets at Rockets - Rockets by 1

College Basketball

(2) Kansas at Kansas State - Kansas by 6
West Virginia at (13) Syracuse - Cuse by 8

Prediction Results - 13 Feb

NBA: 5/8 (.625) 441/627 overall (.703)
College Basketball: 4/6 (.667) 425/525 overall (.810)
Upsets: 3/5 (.600) 110/184 overall (.598)

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Predictions - 13 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Heat at Celtics - Celtics by 1
Lakers at Magic - Magic by 1
Wizards at Cavaliers - Wizards by 1
Trail Blazers at Pistons - Blazers by 2
Clippers at Raptors - Clippers by 1
Nuggets at Grizzlies - Grizzlies by 2
Thunder at Warriors - Thunder by 3
Kings at Suns - Suns by 8

College Basketball

(5) Duke at Miami - Duke by 10
Providence at (9) Connecticut - UConn by 11
Marquette at (11) Georgetown - Georgetown by 10
(12) Purdue at Illinois - Illinois by 4
(16) Arizona at Arizona State - Arizona by 7
(15) Minnesota at Iowa - Iowa by 4

Prediction Results - 12 Feb

NBA: 4/8 (.500) 436/619 overall (.704)
College Basketball: 14/18 (.778) 421/519 overall (.811)
Upsets: 2/7 (.286) 107/179 overall (.598)

NBA Player of the Day

Kevin Durant - OKC - 35 pts, 6 reb, 2 ast, 2 blk, 13-22 FG, 1-3 3P, 8-13 FT
Even though he missed two free throws in the final seconds that would have put the game away, Durant did enough before that to give the Thunder a road victory against Sacramento. Durant's league-leading scoring average is now up to 29.1 per game, and he's nearly a lock to win his second straight scoring title.

Saturday, February 12, 2011

NBA Regular Season and Playoff Predictions - 12 Feb

Last week I introduced my long-term NBA predictions, and today I am updating those predictions to reflect the results of recent games. Each team's projected record is followed by its current standing in the conference and its change in projected wins in parentheses. Teams that performed better than expected this week saw an increase in wins and sometimes seeding.

Eastern Conference

1. Miami (61-21) (1) (+1)
2. Boston (59-23) (2) (-2)
3. Chicago (56-26) (3) (-2)
4. Orlando (53-29) (5) (0)
5. Atlanta (47-35) (4) (-2)
6. Philadelphia (42-40) (7) (+2)
7. New York (41-41) (6) (-1)
8. Indiana (39-43) (8) (+3)

9. Milwaukee (35-47) (10) (-2)
10. Charlotte (33-49) (9) (-1)

Indiana's strong week and Milwaukee's collapse have allowed Indiana to grab a firm hold on the final playoff berth for now. Philadelphia has also jumped a spot this week thanks to a combination of their success and New York's struggles. The other change happened at the top, where Miami passed Boston after the Celtics lost multiple games this week. Those are still the only two teams with a real chance at the top seed in the East, with Chicago still barely in the hunt.

Western Conference

1. San Antonio (65-17) (1) (+1)
2. LA Lakers (58-24) (2) (+2)
3. Dallas (55-27) (3) (+1)
4. Oklahoma City (51-31) (4) (0)
5. New Orleans (49-33) (5) (-2)
6. Denver (47-35) (6) (-2)
7. Memphis (43-39) (9) (-1)
8. Portland (43-39) (8) (+1)

9. Utah (43-39) (7) (-1)
10. Phoenix (41-41) (10) (+2)
11. Houston (40-42) (11) (0)

The Spurs will be #1, the Lakers and Mavericks will have home court in the first round, but nothing else in the West is set. Denver looks somewhat safe at this point, but their are still 5 teams with a very good chance at the final two spots, which means every game is very important. Phoenix and Portland played themselves into good positions this week, with Portland knocking struggling Utah out of the current playoff picture, but only by the skin of their teeth. This should be a very interesting race to watch play out.

Playoffs

First Round

Heat over Pacers in 5
Celtics over Knicks in 5
Bulls over 76ers in 6
Magic over Hawks in 6
Spurs over Blazers in 5
Lakers over Grizzlies in 6
Mavericks over Nuggets in 7
Hornets over Thunder in 7

Second Round

Heat over Magic in 6
Celtics over Bulls in 7
Spurs over Hornets in 6
Lakers over Mavericks in 6

Conference Finals

Heat over Celtics in 7
Spurs over Lakers in 7

Finals

Heat over Spurs in 7

NBA Player of the Day

Kobe Bryant - LAL - 33 pts, 10 reb, 2 ast, 12-17 FG, 4-7 3P, 5-8 FT
As nice as it would be to put Antawn Jamison here for his great effort in ending Cleveland's record losing streak, Kobe's performance alone trumped his last night. Kobe scored 19 points in the first quarter, then sat out the entire 4th as the Lakers ran away from the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Just imagine what his stats would look like if the game was close enough that he had to play more than 29 minutes.

Predictions - 12 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Bobcats at Hawks - Hawks by 6
Knicks at Nets - Knicks by 2
Bulls at Hornets - Hornets by 1
76ers at Timberwolves - 76ers by 3
Spurs at Wizards - Spurs by 9
Mavericks at Rockets - Rockets by 1
Pacers at Bucks - Bucks by 2
Thunder at Kings - Thunder by 5

College Basketball

(1) Ohio State at (14) Wisconsin - Ohio State by 1
Iowa State at (2) Kansas - Kansas by 22
Baylor at (3) Texas - Texas by 17
(4) Pittsburgh at (10) Villanova - Nova by 1
(6) San Diego State at UNLV - UNLV by 2
(7) Notre Dame at South Florida - Notre Dame by 6
Utah at (8) BYU - BYU by 25
(13) Syracuse at (15) Louisville - Louisville by 6
Fresno State at (17) Utah State - Utah State by 17
(18) Kentucky at (24) Vanderbilt - Vandy by 1
Tennessee at (19) Florida - Florida by 8
Oklahoma at (20) Missouri - Missouri by 18
(21) North Carolina at Clemson - North Carolina by 1
(22) Texas A&M at Texas Tech - Texas A&M by 5
(23) Saint Mary's at San Francisco - Saint Mary's by 5
Belmont at Campbell - Belmont by 13
Maryland at Boston College - Maryland by 3
Stanford at Washington - Washington by 19

Prediction Results - 11 Feb

NBA: 5/10 (.500) 432/611 overall (.707)

Friday, February 11, 2011

NBA MVP Rankings - 11 Feb

In this week's Awards Watch on ESPN, Maurice Brooks finally agreed with me and moved LeBron James up to the top spot in the MVP rankings. He also moved Dorell Wright into his Most Improved Player rankings (finally) after I had had both players at #1 for over a month. While you may not see quite as much movement in my rankings as Brooks likes to use, I believe my rankings are a very accurate reflection of the actual state of the players in the NBA. Here are this week's rankings, with previous ranking in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James - MIA - 26.4 pts, 7.3 reb, 7.3 ast (1)
James' case to win his 3rd straight MVP is getting stronger each day. He scored 41 points against Indiana this week, his second straight week with a 40-point game. He is still the best player in the league, which he keeps proving. His stats are not that far below last year's numbers. He plays for the best team in the NBA (not the team with the best record, the best team). And his former team has now set a new record for consecutive losses, even more proof that LeBron is the Most Valuable Player in the NBA.

2. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 25.2 pts, 6.8 reb, 4.4 ast (2)
Wade continued to play second fiddle to LeBron James this week, putting up just one impressive performance, his triple double against the Charlotte Bobcats. They both seem to fit well into their roles, and Miami has now won 7 straight again, and they have their eye on the best record in the East, which is getting more likely with every Boston loss.

3. Derrick Rose - CHI - 24.7 pts, 4.4 reb, 8.2 ast (3)
Rose scored 36 points in 38 minutes of action against Portland this week, his highest output in nearly a month, but the end result was not the same. Last time he scored 36, Chicago upset Boston, but this time they lost by 6 to the Trail Blazers. Unless the Heat hit a big slump or one of their stars goes down, Rose will not climb any higher in the rankings.

4. Kevin Durant - OKC - 29.0 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.8 ast (4)
By his recent standards, this was a down week for the scoring leader, but the Thunder have maintained their spot at the top of the division, and Durant has now grabbed double-figure rebounds in 5 straight games, something he hadn't done in consecutive games yet this season.

5. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 25.4 pts, 5.2 reb, 5.0 ast (5)
Kobe has been playing very good all-around basketball so far this month, averaging 24.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 7.2 assists as the Lakers have started the month 4-1, with the only loss coming by one point to the San Antonio Spurs.

6. Pau Gasol - LAL - 18.7 pts, 10.5 reb, 1.8 blk (7)
When Pau reaches a double-double, the Lakers are 23-6 this season, but they are only 14-10 when he doesn't. This week, the big man's big games helped LA beat New Orleans and Boston on the road.

7. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 22.5 pts, 5.1 reb, 8.6 ast (6)
Westbrook posted 3 straight double-doubles this week, but the Thunder last at home to the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday, which was enough to drop Oklahoma City's point guard down a notch in the rankings this week.

8. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 22.7 pts, 6.8 reb, 2.5 ast (8)
The Mavericks' 10-game winning streak came to an end last night in Denver, but the only reason it didn't end a couple games earlier was that the previous two wins were against Cleveland and Sacramento, teams they could beat in their sleep. The loss to Denver was the third straight game that Dirk failed to score 20 points.

9. Dwight Howard - ORL - 22.5 pts, 13.8 reb, 2.1 blk (9)
Howard was a beast this week, averaging 25 points and 16 rebounds over 4 games for the Magic, but their week was marred by yet another loss, this one by 11 points at Boston, one of their chief rivals for the Eastern Conference title.

10. Al Horford - ATL - 16.2 pts, 9.9 reb, 3.6 ast (NR)
Al Horford makes his debut on the MVP rankings this week after missing two games due to injury, and it's easy to see how valuable he is to the Hawks when you notice that he was injured during their two worst losses of the season, the 34-point loss to Philadelphia this week and their 41-point loss to New Orleans last month.

Outside looking in:
Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Carmelo Anthony

Rookie of the Year

1. Blake Griffin - LAC - 22.6 pts, 12.6 reb, 3.5 ast (1)
You know you're good when it's news that you didn't record a double-double, which was the case for Griffin against New York two nights ago, just the second time since Thanksgiving he had failed to put up double figures in both points and rebounds.

2. John Wall - WAS - 14.8 pts, 4.2 reb, 9.0 ast (2)
After struggling mightily in a loss to New Orleans last week, Wall got his touch back, scoring at least 14 in each of Washington's last 3 games, but his assist numbers suffered as a result. The teeter-totter effect is still showing up heavily in Wall's stats.

3. DeMarcus Cousin - SAC - 13.9 pts, 8.0 reb, 1.8 ast (4)
Cousins was great in the Kings' close losses to Utah and Dallas, this week, putting up 25 and 14 against the Jazz and 19 and 15 against the Mavericks. He seems to be hitting his stride, which could be very good for Sacramento, which is already building a strong young foundation with reigning ROY Tyreke Evans.

4. Landry Fields - NYK - 10.0 pts, 7.2 reb, 1.9 ast (3)
In New York's 3 losses so far this month, he scored a total of 13 points. In their lone win, he had 25 points and 10 rebounds, the best game of his career so far. He may be the second weapon that the Knicks need to go along with Amare, but he needs to do it every night.

5. Greg Monroe - DET - 7.4 pts, 6.6 reb, 1.0 stl (NR)
Monroe registered two double-doubles this week, increasing his total for the season to 8, and all 8 have come since the beginning of January. The extra playing time he's been receiving lately has helped Detroit uncover a very good player in hiding.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Jason Terry - DAL - 16.1 pts, 2.0 reb, 4.3 ast (1)
Terry averaged over 21 points per game this week, shot very close to 50%, and only missed one free throw in 25 attempts. The result was four more wins for Dallas, and if he had made that free throw, maybe they would have had one more.

2. Ramon Sessions - CLE - 11.8 pts, 2.9 reb, 5.2 ast (5)
The spike in Sessions' productivity is probably a direct result of him being inserted into the starting lineup as an injury replacement, but it's no fluke. He is averaging 19.8 points, 10.4 assists, 4.6 rebounds, and 2 steals per game in February while shooting nearly 60% from the field, not bad for a backup point guard on the league's worst team.

3. Jamal Crawford - ATL - 15.7 pts, 1.8 reb, 3.4 ast (2)
Crawford came off the bench to score 34 points against the Clippers last Friday, including 5 3-pointers, but in their two games since, he scored only 15 points on 6 for 20 shooting, with no 3-pointers.

4. Thaddeus Young - PHI - 11.8 pts, 5.1 reb, 1.1 ast (4)
Young scored in double-figures in 3 straight games this week, 2 of which were victories for the 76ers, who are still in the hunt for a playoff berth, but only put up 7 when they faced some real playoff competition on Tuesday.

5. Shawn Marion - DAL - 11.5 pts, 6.5 reb, 1.1 ast (NR)
Marion reentered the list of the top 5 bench players this week after scoring in double figures 4 times, one of which was a double-double effort against Cleveland. He still doesn't seem completely comfortable as a reserve, but he is 32 years old, which is past the prime of most athletic players.

Most Improved Player

1. Dorell Wright - GSW - +9.4 pts, +2.4 reb, +1.9 ast (1)
Wright made a strong case for the MIP award with the near triple-double against Denver that won him Player of the Day honors, but he was completely shut down by Phoenix last night, scoring just 3 points on 1-9 shooting.

2. D.J. Augustin - CHA - +8.5 pts, +1.7 reb, +3.8 ast (2)
Wright's struggles last night opened a window for Augustin to slip through, but the Bobcats' point guard struggled this week as well, posting two single-digit scoring games in the same week for the first time under coach Paul Silas.

3. Kevin Love - MIN - +7.4 pts, +4.6 reb, +0.2 ast (3)
Love's double-double streak now stands at 38 games, the third longest in the NBA since the merger in the late 1970's. The only person in that time to post a longer streak was Hall of Famer Moses Malone, just the kind of company to be keeping if you're a big man.

4. Nick Young - WAS - +9.0 pts, +1.3 reb, +0.7 ast (4)
Young keeps scoring, and the Wizards keep losing. Washington plays at Cleveland on Sunday, which is the best chance they will have of winning a road game this season. Young better bring his touch with him.

5. Jrue Holiday - PHI - +5.5 pts, +1.3 reb, +2.6 ast (5)
The Pac-10 is will represented in this week's Most Improved rankings, which is something that we haven't been able to say about the current slate of players in the conference. Holiday contributed 15 points to the 76ers' blowout of Atlanta this week.

NBA Player of the Day

Carmelo Anthony - DEN - 42 pts, 7 reb, 3 ast, 17-25 FG, 5-7 3P, 3-3 FT
He may have fouled out in the final seconds, but it was Carmelo's big night that put Denver in position to beat the Mavericks and end their 10-game winning streak. It was the second time in three games that Anthony scored over 40, a trend the Nuggets will be happy to see as long as he's still in their uniform.

Predictions - 11 Feb

NBA

Timberwolves at Pacers - Pacers by 7
Hornets at Magic - Magic by 6
Spurs at 76ers - Spurs by 4
Trail Blazers at Raptors - Blazers by 3
Nets at Bobcats - Bobcats by 5
Clippers at Cavaliers - Clippers by 5
Heat at Pistons - Heat by 8
Lakers at Knicks - Lakers by 4
Bucks at Grizzlies - Grizzlies by 6
Suns at Jazz - Jazz by 2

Prediction Results - 10 Feb

NBA: 2/3 (.667) 427/601 overall (.710)
College Basketball: 5/5 (1.000) 407/501 overall (.812)
Upsets: 2/2 (1.000) 105/172 overall (.610)