Thursday, November 13, 2014

College Basketball Preseason Rankings

The college basketball season kicks off tomorrow with 157 games across the country, with exactly 4 months between opening day and Selection Sunday. Last year's champions, the Connecticut Huskies, have lost a lot of players and may have a tough time repeating, but stranger things have happened. I have not yet finished calculating each team's projected final record or strength of schedule, but look for that to be included in the rankings within the next 2 weeks. Here are my full preseason rankings of all 351 teams:





Record
ProjRec
SOS
TW
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
Curr
All
1
8
Wisconsin
-20






2
31
Harvard
-19.13






3
57
Illinois
-18.99






4
2
Arizona
-18.87






5
9
Virginia
-18.73






6
95
Ole Miss
-18.52






7
6
Villanova
-18.32






8
55
Kansas State
-17.16






9
30
Utah
-16.52






10
129
Texas A&M
-16.17






11
27
North Carolina
-15.98






12
86
Butler
-15.82






13
87
Alabama
-15.21






14
12
Iowa
-15.09






15
35
SMU
-15.04






16
69
Nebraska
-14.78






17
23
Gonzaga
-14.58






18
17
San Diego State
-14.46






19
125
Colorado State
-14.34






20
37
BYU
-14.33






21
99
Northern Iowa
-14.07






22
1
Louisville
-13.98






23
24
Virginia Commonwealth
-13.8






24
14
Iowa State
-13.65






25
18
Ohio State
-13.61






26
15
Wichita State
-13.02






27
48
Maryland
-13






28
68
Colorado
-12.51






29
49
Texas
-12.45






30
3
Florida
-12.39






31
20
Kentucky
-12.27






32
88
Miami (FL)
-11.72






33
195
Old Dominion
-11.63






34
21
Pittsburgh
-11.35






35
4
Kansas
-11.29






36
36
Oklahoma
-11.08






37
40
Florida State
-11.06






38
120
Columbia
-11






39
34
Arkansas
-10.87






40
85
Tulsa
-10.6






41
104
UC Santa Barbara
-10.45






42
45
West Virginia
-10.45






43
5
Duke
-10.06






44
141
Rhode Island
-9.91






45
51
St. John's
-9.838






46
98
Richmond
-9.68






47
10
Michigan
-9.635






48
58
Georgetown
-9.421






49
11
Oklahoma State
-9.341






50
7
Michigan State
-9.27






51
222
TCU
-9.252






52
43
George Washington
-9.162






53
144
Quinnipiac
-9.12






54
97
UC Irvine
-9.026






55
63
North Carolina Central
-8.937






56
89
Georgia
-8.749






57
78
North Carolina State
-8.598






58
142
Murray State
-8.437






59
134
Auburn
-8.394






60
52
Xavier
-8.378






61
155
Boston College
-8.36






62
39
Stanford
-8.104






63
130
Northwestern
-8.096






64
128
Wyoming
-8.087






65
183
Wofford
-7.867






66
53
Clemson
-7.754






67
71
Stephen F Austin
-7.75






68
25
Syracuse
-7.706






69
91
Penn State
-7.583






70
56
Minnesota
-7.405






71
149
Yale
-7.23






72
96
Toledo
-7.21






73
109
Portland
-6.844






74
61
LSU
-6.824






75
135
San Diego
-6.76






76
140
Denver
-6.754






77
126
American
-6.726






78
119
Western Michigan
-6.6






79
62
California
-6.46






80
211
Dartmouth
-6.393






81
67
Saint Mary's
-6.197






82
203
Northeastern
-6.155






83
59
Marquette
-6.154






84
107
Washington
-6.106






85
187
Washington State
-6.012






86
60
Boise State
-5.962






87
190
Kent State
-5.73






88
154
Holy Cross
-5.712






89
26
Louisiana Tech
-5.695






90
54
Indiana
-5.621






91
146
Brown
-5.528






92
117
Vanderbilt
-5.497






93
114
South Carolina
-5.352






94
94
Notre Dame
-5.317






95
188
Siena
-5.301






96
102
San Francisco
-5.27






97
175
Long Beach State
-5.097






98
80
Cleveland State
-5.057






99
16
Creighton
-5






100
210
Northern Illinois
-4.86






101
64
Green Bay
-4.842






102
50
Dayton
-4.704






103
116
Georgia Tech
-4.618






104
252
Lafayette
-4.487






105
29
Cincinnati
-4.465






106
108
Fresno State
-4.419






107
299
Northern Kentucky
-4.371






108
200
Bowling Green
-4.318






109
103
UL Lafayette
-4.235






110
204
Hampton
-4.127






111
178
Colgate
-4.107






112
127
UTEP
-4.022






113
81
St. Bonaventure
-3.999






114
240
Evansville
-3.897






115
19
Tennessee
-3.878






116
176
Cal Poly
-3.867






117
47
Providence
-3.862






118
139
Akron
-3.861






119
239
Army
-3.774






120
157
Temple
-3.735






121
220
Radford
-3.613






122
131
Wake Forest
-3.554






123
278
UNC Wilmington
-3.548






124
274
Monmouth
-3.459






125
261
Hofstra
-3.457






126
152
Morehead State
-3.429






127
231
UL Monroe
-3.401






128
184
Charlotte
-3.345






129
209
Coastal Carolina
-3.265






130
46
North Dakota State
-3.237






131
245
Saint Peter's
-3.087






132
215
Eastern Washington
-3.064






133
75
Missouri
-3.029






134
250
High Point
-3.025






135
41
Saint Louis
-2.987






136
72
Manhattan
-2.939






137
33
Baylor
-2.858






138
38
Arizona State
-2.79






139
79
Georgia State
-2.777






140
165
Illinois State
-2.692






141
185
Western Kentucky
-2.586






142
273
NJIT
-2.576






143
158
Santa Clara
-2.459






144
263
Sacramento State
-2.457






145
168
Sam Houston State
-2.376






146
148
Duquesne
-2.358






147
150
George Mason
-2.296






148
232
Hartford
-2.258






149
247
Northern Arizona
-2.153






150
111
La Salle
-2.1






151
115
Davidson
-2.098






152
93
Purdue
-2.088






153
287
San Jose State
-1.957






154
234
South Dakota
-1.949






155
28
Oregon
-1.946






156
288
Navy
-1.901






157
100
Princeton
-1.832






158
170
Drake
-1.809






159
321
UC Davis
-1.775






160
73
Iona
-1.63






161
192
Florida Gulf Coast
-1.467






162
171
Detroit
-1.464






163
162
William & Mary
-1.45






164
300
Alabama State
-1.386






165
213
Winthrop
-1.371






166
269
Lipscomb
-1.341






167
159
Bucknell
-1.234






168
218
UT Arlington
-1.169






169
124
Drexel
-0.948






170
242
Seattle
-0.911






171
110
Charleston Southern
-0.881






172
160
Milwaukee
-0.873






173
106
Buffalo
-0.83






174
44
Massachusetts
-0.779






175
174
Missouri State
-0.769






176
208
Southeast Missouri State
-0.76






177
65
Saint Joseph's
-0.709






178
66
New Mexico State
-0.681






179
243
Lehigh
-0.66






180
311
St. Francis (PA)
-0.645






181
253
North Florida
-0.622






182
258
Loyola (IL)
-0.492






183
83
Texas Tech
-0.249






184
217
Marshall
-0.215






185
201
St. Francis (NY)
-0.014






186
221
Rider
0.0504






187
296
Delaware State
0.114






188
256
CS Fullerton
0.1509






189
248
Miami (OH)
0.169






190
260
Air Force
0.1962






191
172
Pepperdine
0.2137






192
186
Southern Illinois
0.2143






193
289
Ball State
0.2205






194
167
UCF
0.242






195
82
Seton Hall
0.3137






196
22
Connecticut
0.3452






197
105
Eastern Kentucky
0.3651






198
13
UCLA
0.3859






199
238
Grand Canyon
0.3943






200
191
College of Charleston
0.5588






201
32
New Mexico
0.6009






202
249
Florida Atlantic
0.7979






203
335
Howard
0.8132






204
133
IPFW
0.8186






205
136
Hawaii
0.8461






206
227
Mississippi State
0.9519






207
223
East Carolina
1.001






208
316
Alabama A&M
1.0115






209
202
Northern Colorado
1.0409






210
74
Vermont
1.1073






211
254
Western Illinois
1.2065






212
219
Montana
1.2786






213
276
Fairfield
1.3013






214
180
Virginia Tech
1.4175






215
145
Omaha
1.5697






216
277
Incarnate Word
1.6315






217
122
Eastern Michigan
1.6373






218
132
Indiana State
1.7464






219
169
Stony Brook
1.8204






220
285
Georgia Southern
1.8851






221
297
Tulane
1.947






222
177
Albany
2.1149






223
42
Memphis
2.1199






224
235
Marist
2.1724






225
199
Bryant
2.3437






226
194
DePaul
2.357






227
251
James Madison
2.4914






228
137
Valparaiso
2.5481






229
118
Towson
2.6322






230
225
Idaho State
2.6776






231
193
Loyola Marymount
2.6953






232
228
Fordham
2.7417






233
113
Boston University
2.7975






234
292
Coppin State
2.9698






235
151
Southern
2.9833






236
257
Central Michigan
3.0816






237
123
Wright State
3.1209






238
197
Oral Roberts
3.1415






239
298
Loyola (MD)
3.186






240
233
Rutgers
3.4178






241
196
Oakland
3.419






242
303
Southeastern Louisiana
3.4399






243
280
UC Riverside
3.4431






244
198
Utah Valley
3.4574






245
138
Weber State
3.472






246
265
Portland State
3.4968






247
214
CSU Bakersfield
3.5226






248
244
Arkansas-Little Rock
3.5568






249
295
SIU-Edwardsville
3.6422






250
275
UIC
3.6875






251
216
South Florida
3.7535






252
230
Bradley
3.7762






253
345
Cornell
3.8218






254
279
Montana State
4.0417






255
163
Youngstown State
4.0717






256
205
Gardner-Webb
4.0781






257
259
Texas A&M-CC
4.1338






258
161
Houston
4.1919






259
337
Kennesaw State
4.194






260
143
Nevada
4.2521






261
304
Sacred Heart
4.3803






262
319
Central Connecticut State
4.391






263
90
Middle Tennessee
4.5338






264
212
UNC Asheville
4.5401






265
206
Elon
4.7078






266
255
East Tennessee State
4.7346






267
84
Delaware
4.7643






268
77
UNLV
4.8946






269
173
USC
4.8955






270
293
Jackson State
4.93






271
166
South Carolina Upstate
4.9989






272
305
Jacksonville State
5.0356






273
324
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
5.3364






274
268
Idaho
5.5573






275
314
UMass Lowell
5.5879






276
121
Ohio
5.5958






277
315
IUPUI
5.6075






278
92
Belmont
5.6304






279
153
South Dakota State
5.679






280
241
South Alabama
5.7805






281
290
Austin Peay
5.8131






282
226
North Dakota
5.8642






283
322
New Hampshire
5.9108






284
344
South Carolina State
5.9416






285
237
Tennessee Tech
6.0043






286
333
Binghamton
6.0177






287
291
UMKC
6.232






288
189
Northwestern State
6.3526






289
270
Pennsylvania
6.4272






290
330
Alcorn State
6.6973






291
294
UT Pan American
6.7496






292
262
Troy
6.7666






293
182
UAB
6.7984






294
326
Appalachian State
6.8261






295
271
Chattanooga
7.1603






296
286
Tennessee State
7.2264






297
341
Lamar
7.2276






298
179
Robert Morris
7.2298






299
312
Rice
7.3717






300
70
Southern Miss
7.4098






301
348
Presbyterian
7.458






302
101
Oregon State
7.4594






303
328
Bethune-Cookman
7.4678






304
272
Liberty
7.6598






305
246
CS Northridge
7.665






306
229
Mount St. Mary's
7.876






307
309
New Orleans
7.9287






308
284
North Texas
8.0697






309
283
Texas State
8.0802






310
308
Eastern Illinois
8.1466






311
323
Abilene Christian
8.3511






312
346
Furman
8.5555






313
342
Maine
8.6543






314
317
UNC Greensboro
8.7207






315
313
McNeese State
8.7818






316
266
Florida International
8.9664






317
350
Southern Utah
8.993






318
318
LIU Brooklyn
9.1305






319
224
Morgan State
9.2278






320
281
Savannah State
9.2894






321
325
UMBC
9.2942






322
76
Mercer
9.6922






323
181
VMI
9.7606






324
112
Utah State
9.8435






325
282
Niagara
10.146






326
147
Canisius
10.2






327
339
Houston Baptist
10.247






328
320
Campbell
10.327






329
264
Texas Southern
10.501






330
329
UT San Antonio
10.624






331
338
Stetson
11.191






332
156
Pacific
11.303






333
306
Nicholls State
11.395






334
336
Prairie View
11.659






335
307
Chicago State
11.702






336
236
Western Carolina
12.045






337
340
Maryland-Eastern Shore
12.122






338
207
Wagner
12.226






339
332
North Carolina A&T
12.31






340
301
Fairleigh Dickinson
12.64






341
331
Tennessee-Martin
13.492






342
164
Arkansas State
15.011






343
343
The Citadel
15.575






344
267
Norfolk State
16.421






345
327
Central Arkansas
17.803






346
351
Grambling State
18.39






347
349
Mississippi Valley State
19.294






348
310
Jacksonville
20.36






349
302
Florida A&M
21.149






350
334
Samford
21.778






351
347
Longwood
22.431







Opening the season at #1 is Wisconsin, which qualified for the Final Four last season and nearly beat Kentucky for a trip to the title game, returns 4 starters from a year ago. The Badgers will face many challengers within a strong Big 10, notably the much-improved Illinois and Iowa teams, both of which finished closer to the middle of the conference last year.

The Harvard Crimson, which dominated the Ivy League last year and pulled off a first-round upset for the second straight year, returns its top 3 players and looks to have an easy path to the conference title once again, with no other Ivy League squad in the top 70. Will this be another Cinderella story in March, or will the Crimson gain a higher seed than in previous seasons?

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

College Football

East Carolina at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 9
Southern Miss at UTSA - Roadrunnesr by 6
California at USC - Trojans by 19

NFL

Buffalo at Miami - Dolphins by 11

NBA

Sacramento at Memphis - Grizzlies by 5
Chicago at Toronto - Raptors by 9
Philadelphia at Dallas - Mavericks by 18
Brooklyn at Golden State - Warriors by 11

Prediction Results

College Football: 2-0 (1.000) 477-171 overall (.736)
NBA: 6-3 (.667) 83-34 overall (.709)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 14-12 overall (.538)

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