Tuesday, September 8, 2015

College Football Rankings - 8 Sep

Week one is over, and 46 different FBS teams decided to play lower-division foes, making the weekend a little less exciting in terms of upset potential. There were some notable exceptions, including #1 Ohio State, which played it's toughest game of the year in week one, and won pretty easily. Here are this week's full rankings:



Rec
ProjRec

TW
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
SOS
MOV
1
1
Ohio State
-39.123
1
0
12
0
8

2
32
USC
-29.444
1
0
11
1
69

3
12
Ole Miss
-27.232
1
0
10
2
82

4
3
Oklahoma
-25.284
1
0
11
1
61

5
6
LSU
-24.463
0
0
9
2
37

6
30
Florida State
-22.799
1
0
11
1
70

7
9
California
-21.454
1
0
11
1
83

8
18
Texas A&M
-20.483
1
0
10
2
41

9
60
West Virginia
-20.467
1
0
10
2
75

10
2
TCU
-19.659
1
0
11
1
16

11
4
Arkansas
-18.821
1
0
8
4
66

12
11
Mississippi State
-18.615
1
0
9
3
34

13
16
Tennessee
-16.895
1
0
9
3
60

14
19
Virginia Tech
-15.915
0
1
10
2
2

15
21
Memphis
-15.677
1
0
10
2
84

16
44
Georgia Tech
-15.636
1
0
9
3
85

17
28
Florida
-15.007
1
0
8
4
81

18
41
Notre Dame
-14.226
1
0
9
3
71

19
92
Illinois
-13.397
1
0
10
2
128

20
23
Michigan State
-13.01
1
0
10
2
36

21
14
Baylor
-12.78
1
0
9
3
73

22
8
Georgia
-12.685
1
0
9
3
77

23
7
Clemson
-12.637
1
0
9
3
86

24
17
Louisiana Tech
-12.451
1
0
10
2
87

25
38
Alabama
-12.44
1
0
7
5
49

26
68
Duke
-11.361
1
0
10
2
67

27
91
New Mexico
-10.851
1
0
11
1
88

28
33
Appalachian State
-10.365
1
0
11
1
89

29
62
Middle Tennessee
-9.378
1
0
9
3
90

30
67
Northwestern
-9.1074
1
0
9
3
43

31
47
Brigham Young
-9.023
1
0
10
2
27

32
74
Minnesota
-8.4504
0
1
8
4
14

33
20
UCLA
-7.6318
1
0
8
4
55

34
34
Cincinnati
-6.8143
1
0
9
3
91

35
55
Temple
-6.6278
1
0
9
3
56

36
77
Colorado State
-5.851
1
0
10
2
92

37
70
Rutgers
-5.7261
1
0
9
3
93

38
5
Oregon
-5.4119
1
0
7
5
94

39
35
Toledo
-5.2956
0
0
9
2
38

40
65
Auburn
-4.3815
1
0
6
6
44

41
10
Stanford
-4.3156
0
1
7
5
15

42
15
Utah
-4.2634
1
0
8
4
45

43
59
Miami (FL)
-4.244
1
0
6
6
95

44
39
North Carolina State
-2.9771
1
0
8
4
78

45
105
Air Force
-2.9653
1
0
8
4
96

46
51
Rice
-2.5788
1
0
9
3
97

47
73
Michigan
-2.4716
0
1
6
6
21

48
50
Navy
-1.7825
1
0
9
3
98

49
31
Western Kentucky
-1.227
1
0
8
4
42

50
108
South Florida
-1.1965
1
0
7
5
99

51
88
South Carolina
-0.978
1
0
6
6
46

52
26
Arizona State
0.51737
0
1
5
7
9

53
52
San Diego State
0.54526
1
0
8
4
100

54
99
Syracuse
0.58636
1
0
6
6
101

55
27
Nebraska
1.18525
0
1
5
7
28

56
76
Buffalo
1.51036
1
0
10
2
102

57
49
Missouri
1.62481
1
0
5
7
103

58
56
Washington
2.03928
0
1
6
6
32

59
36
Louisville
2.61853
0
1
6
6
26

60
29
North Carolina
3.02197
0
1
5
7
31

61
24
Marshall
3.04914
1
0
8
4
62

62
61
Florida International
3.05824
1
0
8
4
48

63
66
Massachusetts
3.65463
0
0
7
5
39

64
83
Kansas State
3.73697
1
0
5
7
104

65
82
Oklahoma State
3.9316
1
0
6
6
64

66
87
Hawaii
4.08283
1
0
8
5
59

67
69
Boise State
4.24749
1
0
7
5
51

68
40
Kentucky
4.59102
1
0
5
7
57

69
54
Southern Miss
4.59319
0
1
7
5
17

70
63
Houston
4.66258
1
0
8
4
105

71
13
Arizona
4.69957
1
0
6
6
63

72
100
Wake Forest
5.12634
1
0
5
7
106

73
84
Virginia
5.15996
0
1
4
8
18

74
42
Penn State
5.16396
0
1
4
8
20

75
53
Western Michigan
5.19826
0
1
7
5
23

76
80
San Jose State
5.32094
1
0
6
6
107

77
75
Maryland
5.49303
1
0
6
6
108

78
43
Wisconsin
5.55994
0
1
5
7
19

79
94
Vanderbilt
5.9812
0
1
3
9
47

80
101
Louisiana-Lafayette
6.38281
0
1
7
5
33

81
86
Ohio
6.42437
1
0
8
4
74

82
58
Colorado
6.87462
0
1
5
8
30

83
57
Bowling Green
6.8972
0
1
5
7
7

84
95
Akron
7.50732
0
1
7
5
3

85
111
Purdue
7.84092
0
1
4
8
29

86
22
Pittsburgh
8.35739
1
0
4
8
109

87
89
UCF
9.26645
0
1
5
7
53

88
124
UTSA
9.49135
0
1
4
8
35

89
79
Boston College
9.82007
1
0
4
8
110

90
48
Texas Tech
10.0494
1
0
5
7
111

91
106
Florida Atlantic
10.65
0
1
4
8
52

92
46
Northern Illinois
10.7801
1
0
7
5
68

93
114
UTEP
10.9713
0
1
5
7
6

94
81
Tulsa
12.8582
1
0
5
7
65

95
104
Iowa State
12.954
1
0
4
8
112

96
93
Oregon State
13.1993
1
0
3
9
113

97
97
North Texas
13.2133
0
0
4
8
40

98
117
UNLV
13.5719
0
1
5
7
50

99
25
Arkansas State
14.3481
0
1
6
6
1

100
71
South Alabama
14.4838
1
0
5
7
114

101
45
Texas State
14.9928
0
1
6
6
4

102
96
Iowa
15.0501
1
0
4
8
115

103
72
Texas
15.5655
0
1
3
9
11

104
37
Georgia Southern
18.3245
0
1
5
7
5

105
103
Ball State
18.7079
1
0
4
8
116

106
110
Charlotte
18.8205
1
0
4
8
72

107
109
Nevada
18.8709
1
0
4
8
117

108
118
Louisiana-Monroe
19.1066
0
1
4
9
13

109
115
Troy
19.8147
0
1
5
7
22

110
107
Central Michigan
20.1398
0
1
3
9
54

111
122
Fresno State
20.355
1
0
3
9
118

112
90
Utah State
20.4195
1
0
4
8
119

113
102
East Carolina
20.5378
1
0
3
9
120

114
64
Washington State
22.2327
0
1
2
10
121

115
98
Indiana
23.4777
1
0
2
10
122

116
85
Tulane
23.847
0
1
3
9
25

117
127
Miami (OH)
26.1038
1
0
3
9
123

118
119
Georgia State
27.0287
0
1
2
10
76

119
113
Old Dominion
27.0342
1
0
3
9
79

120
121
Southern Methodist
27.4281
0
1
2
10
24

121
112
New Mexico State
27.785
0
1
3
9
10

122
120
Idaho
28.6326
0
1
2
10
58

123
125
Connecticut
29.9727
1
0
2
10
124

124
78
Kent State
30.3946
0
1
2
10
12

125
123
Kansas
32.53
0
1
0
12
125

126
116
Wyoming
34.7913
0
1
1
11
126

127
126
Army
35.411
0
1
1
11
127

128
128
Eastern Michigan
36.2424
0
1
1
11
80


USC made a big move this week after destroying Arkansas State 55-6 to open the season. The Red Wolves had been ranked in my preseason top 25, but after the Trojans finished with them, we now know that either Arkansas State isn't that good or USC is awesome. It could be a little of both, but it may take a few weeks to know for sure.

Florida State looked great this weekend, maybe even better than they did last year, with a 59-16 manhandling of Texas State to open the season. Everett Golson looked like a perfect fit to replace Jameis Winston for the Seminoles, who weren't expected to have a close game, but also weren't expected to win by more than 40 points.

West Virginia also joined the top 10 this week, but still isn't in the AP top 25. Maybe people didn't notice their big win because nobody really knows who Georgia Southern is, but the Eagles were powerhouses of the FCS level until 2 years ago, when they moved up to FBS, and last year they finished 9-3 while going undefeated in the Sun Belt. The Mountaineers' 44-0 victory means a lot more than you think.
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Monday, September 7, 2015

NFL Preseason Rankings - 2015

The NFL season is starting up in 3 days, so I'm bringing you my annual preview today. Last season, I correctly predicted 7 of 12 playoff teams, 2 of 4 conference finalists, and 1 Super Bowl team. Neither of last season's Super Bowl teams is showing any sign of dropping off, so a repeat matchup would not be much of a surprise. Here are my preseason rankings:



Rec
ProjRec
SOS

TW
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
Curr
Over
Seed
1
1
New England Patriots
-12.613


12
4

11
A1
2
2
Seattle Seahawks
-11.482


12
4

7
N1
3
4
Denver Broncos
-7.1175


10
6

10
A3
4
7
Buffalo Bills
-6.208


10
6

8
A5
5
3
Green Bay Packers
-5.9485


10
6

17
N2
6
8
Kansas City Chiefs
-5.0371


9
7

14
A6
7
9
Indianapolis Colts
-4.9143


11
5

25
A2
8
17
Cincinnati Bengals
-4.7521


9
7

21
A4
9
19
Minnesota Vikings
-4.7054


9
7

19
N6
10
10
Philadelphia Eagles
-3.6747


10
6

15
N3
11
5
Dallas Cowboys
-3.5416


10
6

29
N5
12
6
Baltimore Ravens
-3.0404


9
7

31

13
12
Detroit Lions
-2.8462


9
7

16

14
18
St. Louis Rams
-1.6671


8
8

9

15
11
Miami Dolphins
-0.808


8
8

3

16
14
Houston Texans
-0.5927


9
7

32

17
16
Arizona Cardinals
0.8351


7
9

26

18
26
New York Jets
1.0248


7
9

4

19
21
San Francisco 49ers
1.5503


7
9

12

20
22
New York Giants
2.5115


8
8

20

21
15
San Diego Chargers
2.7544


6
10

2

22
13
Pittsburgh Steelers
2.9793


6
10

30

23
28
Oakland Raiders
3.5317


6
10

1

24
27
Chicago Bears
4.3218


6
10

5

25
20
Carolina Panthers
4.712


8
8

22
N4
26
25
Cleveland Browns
4.8005


6
10

28

27
24
Atlanta Falcons
6.6418


7
9

6

28
31
Jacksonville Jaguars
7.4357


6
10

24

29
29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10.227


6
10

27

30
23
New Orleans Saints
10.841


5
11

23

31
30
Washington Redskins
11.623


4
12

13

32
32
Tennessee Titans
12.443


4
12

18


The Buffalo Bills should make their move this year, from just missing the playoffs last year to sneaking in this year with a 10-6 record. They may have lost Kyle Orton to retirement, leaving them with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, but they have one of the league's best defenses, and they improved at the running back position with the addition of LeSean McCoy, so they should have just enough firepower to grab a wild card spot.

Another AFC team looking to make the leap into the playoffs is the Kansas City Chiefs, who kept their core together while improving at wide receiver, snagging Jeremy Maclin from Philadelphia. The Chiefs were just one game away from making it last year, and that addition should be enough to get them over the hump.

The Minnesota Vikings were 4 games away from making the playoffs last year, but they were playing with a rookie quarterback and lost Adrian Peterson for 15 games due to a suspension, but Peterson is back and well-rested, and Bridgewater showed a lot of improvement toward the end of the season, so I see them improving enough to make the playoffs this year.

The Philadelphia Eagles came very close to the playoffs last season, but decided on an overhaul during the offseason, switching Nick Foles for Sam Bradford at quarterback and Demarco Murray for LeSean McCoy at running back. Bradford has been very good when he's been healthy, but that has not happened often in his career. If he can stay on the field and Murray can avoid the curse that comes after a heavy workload season for a running back, the Eagles should be able to win their division.

Playoff Predictions

Wild Card

(6) Chiefs over (3) Broncos
(5) Bills over (4) Bengals
(6) Vikings over (3) Eagles
(5) Cowboys over (4) Panthers

Divisional Round

(1) Patriots over (6) Chiefs
(5) Bills over (2) Colts
(1) Seahawks over (6) Vikings
(2) Packers over (5) Cowboys

Conference Championships

(1) Patriots over (5) Bills
(1) Seahawks over (2) Packers

Super Bowl

(1) Seahawks over (1) Patriots
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Wednesday, September 2, 2015

College Football Predictions - 3 Sep to 7 Sep

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

North Carolina vs. South Carolina - Tar Heels by 17
FIU at UCF - Golden Panthers by 1
Oklahoma State at Central Michigan - Cowboys by 4
Elon at Wake Forest - Demon Deacons by 20
VMI at Ball State - Cardinals by 19
Stony Brook at Toledo - Rockets by 39
Alcorn State at (16) Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 36
Villanova at Connecticut - Huskies by 3
Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt - Hilltoppers by 13
Michigan at Utah - Utes by 23
(2) TCU at Minnesota - Horned Frogs by 34
Ohio at Idaho - Bobcats by 13
Southern Utah at Utah State - Aggies by 24
Duke at Tulane - Green Wave by 1
UTSA at (22) Arizona - Wildcats by 48
UC Davis at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 16
New Hampshire at San Jose State - Spartans by 27
Abilene Christian at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 6
Colorado at Hawaii - Buffaloes by 1

Friday

Charlotte at Georgia State - 49ers by 2
(5) Michigan State at Western Michigan - Spartans by 5
(4) Baylor at SMU - Bears by 35
Rhode Island at Syracuse - Orange by 20
Fordham at Army - Rams by 1
Weber State at Oregon State - Beavers by 23
Kent State at Illinois - Illini by 1
Washington at (23) Boise State - Broncos by 3

Saturday

Louisiana-Monroe at (9) Georgia - Bulldogs by 50
Tennessee-Martin at (17) Ole Miss - Rebels by 50
(21) Stanford at Northwestern - Cardinal by 16
Colgate at Navy - Midshipmen by 34
Norfolk State at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 30
Illinois State at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 21
Richmond at Maryland - Terrapins by 28
South Dakota State at Kansas - Jayhawks by 6
Wofford at (12) Clemson - Tigers by 54
Youngstown State at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 43
Maine at Boston College - Golden Eagles by 27
Portland State at Washington State - Cougars by 31
UTEP at (18) Arkansas - Razorbacks by 54
Louisville vs. (6) Auburn - Cardinals by 9
Virginia at (13) UCLA - Bruins by 24
Sam Houston State at Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 34
BYU at Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 13
Old Dominion at Eastern Michigan - Monarchs by 17
Penn State at Temple - Nittany Lions by 1
Wagner at Rice - Owls by 33
FAU at Tulsa - Golden Hurricane by 15
Morgan State at Air Force - Falcons by 18
Albany at Buffalo - Bulls by 28
Presbyterian at Miami (OH) - Blue Hose by 3
Howard at Appalachian State - Mountaineers by 40
Savannah State at Colorado State - Rams by 28
North Dakota at Wyoming - Cowboys by 9
Bowling Green at (25) Tennessee - Volunteers by 19
Southern Illinois at Indiana - Hoosiers by 20
SE Missouri State at (24) Missouri - Tigers by 34
Grambling State at California - Golden Bears by 52
Bethune-Cookman at Miami (FL) - Hurricanes by 32
Troy at NC State - Wolfpack by 30
Towson at East Carolina - Pirates by 19
Gardner-Webb at South Alabama - Jaguars by 29
(15) Arizona State vs. Texas A&M - Aggies by 4
Mississippi Valley State at New Mexico - Lobos by 24
Florida A&M at South Florida - Bulls by 17
Missouri State at Memphis - Tigers by 43
Alabama A&M at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 40
Southern at Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 46
Jackson State at Middle Tennessee - Blue Raiders by 31
Akron at (19) Oklahoma - Sooners by 46
Louisiana Lafayette at Kentucky - Wildcats by 24
South Dakota at Kansas State - Wildcats by 27
Texas at (11) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 14
Georgia Southern at West Virginia - Eagles by 2
McNeese State at (14) LSU - Tigers by 58
New Mexico State at Florida - Gators by 34
UNLV at Northern Illinois - Huskies by 30
San Diego at San Diego State - Aztecs by 33
(20) Wisconsin vs. (3) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 1
Texas State at (10) Florida State - Seminoles by 12
Eastern Washington at (7) Oregon - Ducks by 60
Northern Iowa at Iowa State - Cyclones by 18
Tennessee Tech at Houston - Cougars by 31
Mississippi State at Southern Mississippi - Bulldogs by 12
Arkansas State at (8) USC - Trojans by 3

Sunday

Purdue at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 35

Monday

(1) Ohio State at Virginia Tech - Buckeyes by 27
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