Wednesday, January 8, 2014

College Football Rankings - Final

Florida State won the national championship, making a very easy choice for #1 this year, as they held the top spot for the final 6 weeks of the season. Most of my top 10 teams lost bowl games, but most will have enough talent returning to be competitive again next season. Here are my full final rankings, along with my preseason predictions for each team, how far it was off, and how far into the season I finally got their projection correct. I correctly predicted 17 teams' final records in the preseason, and was within one game of another 42, which means that I was within 1 game for nearly half of these teams.

Rank
LW
Team
Rec
Rating
Pred
Diff
Week
1
1
Florida State
14-0
-41.4015
10-3
+3
8
2
2
Oregon
11-2
-32.5982
13-0
-3
13
3
3
Baylor
11-2
-30.522
10-2
+1
2
4
4
Alabama
11-2
-28.5724
12-1
-1
5
5
6
Stanford
11-3
-26.469
3-9
+8
11
6
5
Arizona State
10-4
-25.5174
10-3

0
7
8
Washington
9-4
-24.8712
9-3
-1
8
8
9
Missouri
12-2
-24.7566
6-6
+5
6
9
11
Auburn
12-2
-24.5331
3-9
+9
15
10
7
Ohio State
12-2
-24.1756
10-3
+2
5
11
14
UCLA
10-3
-23.8026
6-6
+3
1
12
12
Clemson
11-2
-23.1459
9-3
+1
5
13
13
Oklahoma State
10-3
-23.0637
11-1
-1
5
14
10
Wisconsin
9-4
-22.3011
10-2
-1
2
15
15
South Carolina
11-2
-22.0189
9-3
+1
1
16
18
LSU
10-3
-18.9284
9-3

0
17
19
USC
10-4
-18.3779
8-5
+1
10
18
17
Georgia
8-5
-17.8342
12-1
-4
5
19
21
Arizona
8-5
-17.7932
6-6
+1
2
20
16
Georgia Tech
7-6
-17.6317
6-6
+1
7
21
27
Oklahoma
11-2
-17.1824
7-5
+3
1
22
22
Texas A&M
9-4
-17.1242
10-2
-2
6
23
23
Michigan State
13-1
-16.5178
7-5
+5
15
24
28
Louisville
12-1
-16.2683
9-3
+2
2
25
20
Brigham Young
8-5
-16.0649
9-3
-1
2
26
25
Utah
5-7
-14.8011
8-4
-3
13
27
26
Utah State
9-5
-14.3625
9-3
-1
7
28
30
Ole Miss
8-5
-13.7728
9-3
-2
2
29
39
Mississippi State
7-6
-13.1472
6-6

0
30
24
Miami (FL)
9-4
-12.4704
10-3
-1
11
31
41
Kansas State
8-5
-12.3334
7-5

0
32
37
Oregon State
7-6
-12.1462
10-2
-4
3
33
32
North Carolina
7-6
-12.1116
9-3
-3
9
34
45
UCF
12-1
-11.5734
10-2
+1
3
35
38
Texas
8-5
-11.4174
9-3
-1
1
36
31
Notre Dame
9-4
-11.234
10-2
-2
4
37
33
Duke
10-4
-11.1684
5-7
+5
14
38
29
Virginia Tech
8-5
-11.0135
6-6
+2
1
39
35
Boise State
8-5
-10.4858
9-4
-1
1
40
36
Washington State
6-7
-10.1863
5-7
+1
6
41
34
Houston
8-5
-10.0375
3-9
+5
3
42
40
Bowling Green
10-4
-9.9399
6-6
+4
4
43
43
Iowa
8-5
-9.63387
3-9
+5
5
44
49
Texas Tech
8-5
-9.59721
8-4
-1
11
45
42
Marshall
10-4
-9.29671
6-6
+3
1
46
44
Michigan
7-6
-8.43182
7-5

0
47
48
Florida
4-8
-7.54151
7-5
-3
 13
48
52
Vanderbilt
9-4
-7.42911
7-5
+1
13
49
47
East Carolina
10-3
-7.33002
6-6
+3
5
50
46
Fresno State
11-2
-7.2546
9-3
+2
11
51
50
Navy
9-4
-6.67467
5-7
+3
7
52
51
Pittsburgh
7-6
-5.73658
4-8
+2
5
53
60
Nebraska
9-4
-5.7084
10-2
-2
1
54
53
Tennessee
5-7
-5.63905
3-9
+2
2
55
57
TCU
4-8
-5.43333
6-6
-2
10
56
56
Northern Illinois
12-2
-4.63655
11-2
+1
1
57
58
Indiana
5-7
-4.38482
8-4
-3
10
58
55
North Texas
9-4
-4.27882
5-7
+3
3
59
54
Cincinnati
9-4
-4.11713
9-3

0
60
59
Minnesota
8-5
-3.9449
4-8
+4
10
61
61
Boston College
7-6
-3.18396
6-6
+1
10
62
64
Arkansas State
8-5
-2.85905
8-4
-1
2
63
62
Penn State
7-5
-2.83953
7-5

0
64
65
Syracuse
7-6
-2.28327
7-5
-1
1
65
63
Ball State
10-3
-2.25786
10-2

0
66
67
Colorado State
7-7
-2.25029
6-7
+1
9
67
68
Northwestern
5-7
-1.17177
11-2
-6
12
68
72
Western Kentucky
8-4
-0.49652
10-2
-2
2
69
69
Maryland
7-6
-0.32712
6-6
+1
6
70
71
Toledo
7-5
-0.20597
9-3
-2
2
71
66
Rice
10-4
-0.08541
9-3
+1
15
72
73
Louisiana-Lafayette
9-4
-0.04917
9-3
-1
4
73
74
Wake Forest
4-8
1.251515
4-8

0
74
76
South Alabama
6-6
1.396135
4-8
+2
9
75
75
Florida Atlantic
6-6
1.622086
9-4
-3
3
76
70
Buffalo
8-5
2.067473
7-5
+1
1
77
78
San Jose State
6-6
2.351318
10-3
-4
2
78
77
Tulane
7-6
2.511639
5-7
+2
5
79
81
Colorado
4-8
3.095565
3-9
+1
2
80
80
UTSA
7-5
3.244671
6-6
+1
4
81
79
Middle Tennessee
8-5
3.449542
5-7
+3
4
82
82
Arkansas
3-9
3.473643
2-10
+1
2
83
86
Kentucky
2-10
4.154599
4-8
-2
12
84
83
Illinois
4-8
4.221975
3-9
+1
9
85
85
Nevada
4-8
4.378127
6-6
-2
9
86
84
Virginia
2-10
4.836548
3-9
-1
10
87
88
Troy
6-6
4.891686
4-8
+2
1
88
90
West Virginia
4-8
4.94739
3-9
+1
2
89
89
UNLV
7-6
5.263924
6-6
+1
9
90
87
North Carolina State
3-9
5.320166
8-4
-5
14
91
91
Iowa State
3-9
5.389819
4-8
-1
7
92
96
San Diego State
8-5
6.063081
6-6
+1
13
93
92
Memphis
3-9
6.840367
7-5
-4
15
94
93
Rutgers
6-7
6.926738
7-5
-1
13
95
95
Southern Methodist
5-7
7.580417
5-7

0
96
94
Ohio
7-6
8.227711
11-2
-4
1
97
98
Temple
2-10
8.414893
5-7
-3
4
98
97
Louisiana-Monroe
6-6
8.434893
8-4
-2
10
99
100
California
1-11
9.759105
1-11

0
100
101
Hawaii
1-11
9.81796
1-11

0
101
99
Kent State
4-8
10.35838
7-5
-3
2
102
102
Wyoming
5-7
11.05187
8-4
-3
8
103
103
Tulsa
3-9
11.98476
12-1
-9
7
104
105
Kansas
3-9
12.37641
2-10
+1
2
105
104
Connecticut
3-9
12.67503
7-5
-4
4
106
108
Texas State
6-6
12.80442
3-9
+3
2
107
106
Army
3-9
13.10749
8-4
-5
11
108
107
Akron
5-7
13.25831
2-10
+3
14
109
109
South Florida
2-10
14.43453
1-11
+1
6
110
110
New Mexico
3-9
14.89711
3-9

0
111
111
Central Michigan
6-6
15.71907
4-8
+2
12
112
112
Purdue
1-11
17.18609
4-8
-3
5
113
113
Louisiana Tech
4-8
19.26522
4-8

0
114
114
Air Force
2-10
19.70401
1-11
+1
2
115
115
UAB
2-10
21.08495
7-5
-5
14
116
116
Western Michigan
1-11
23.38952
4-8
-3
5
117
118
Georgia State
0-12
23.91032
2-10
-2
1
118
117
UTEP
2-10
24.11941
4-8
-2
2
119
119
Massachusetts
1-11
26.04828
3-9
-2
3
120
120
Idaho
1-11
27.51768
1-11

0
121
122
New Mexico State
2-10
28.754
2-10

0
122
121
Southern Miss
1-11
28.88842
4-8
-3
3
123
123
Miami (OH)
0-12
30.0054
1-11
-1
7
124
124
Eastern Michigan
2-10
31.34326
2-10

0
125
125
Florida International
1-11
33.43258
4-8
-3
3

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Dallas at San Antonio - Spurs by 9
Detroit at Toronto - Raptors by 9
Indiana at Atlanta - Pacers by 1
Golden State at Brooklyn - Warriors by 6
Washington at New Orleans - Pelicans by 5
LA Lakers at Houston - Rockets by 13
Phoenix at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 8
Orlando at Portland - Trail Blazers by 12
Boston at LA Clippers - Clippers by 13

College Basketball

(8) Villanova at Seton Hall - Wildcats by 10
South Carolina at (10) Florida - Gators by 16
(18) Kansas at Oklahoma - Jayhawks by 3
Saint Joseph's at (19) Massachusetts - Minutemen by 15
Harvard at Connecticut - Huskies by 3
High Point at Campbell - Camels by 4
UNC Asheville at Gardner-Webb - Running Bulldogs by 9
Liberty at Radford - Highlanders by 6
Longwood at VMI - Keydets by 20
Winthrop at Presbyterian - Eagles by 6
Army at Lehigh - Mountain Hawks by 11
Bucknell at Lafayette - Bison by 2
Colgate at Holy Cross - Crusaders by 5
St. Peter's at Fairfield - Stags by 7
Wake Forest at Virginia - Cavaliers by 12
Murray State at Eastern Kentucky - Colonels by 15
Hofstra at Delaware - Fightin Blue Hens by 23
UNC Wilmington at Northeastern - Huskies by 10
Drexel at William & Mary - Dragons by 1
Georgetown at Providence - Friars by 1
Stony Brook at Columbia - Lions by 12
Vermont at Yale - Bulldogs by 5
UMBC at Albany - Great Danes by 18
Fordham at Duquesne - Dukes by 9
Richmond at St. Bonaventure - Bonnies by 7
Detroit at Cleveland State - Vikings by 11
Milwaukee at Oakland - Golden Grizzlies by 5
Akron at Ball State - Zips by 3
Eastern Michigan at Bowling Green - Falcons by 2
Miami (OH) at Central Michigan - Chippewas by 12
Ohio at Kent State - Golden Flashes by 1
Toledo at Western Michigan - Rockets by 1
Minnesota at Penn State - Nittany Lions by 2
Coastal Carolina at Charleston Southern - Buccaneers by 21
Maryland-Eastern Shore at South Carolina State - Bulldogs by 8
Loyola (MD) at American - Eagles by 21
Illinois State at (6) Wichita State - Shockers by 22
Mississippi State at (14) Kentucky - Wildcats by 27
Georgia at (21) Missouri - Tigers by 16
Southern Illinois at Loyola (IL) - Ramblers by 6
Missouri State at Bradley - Braves by 3
Indiana State at Drake - Bulldogs by 10
Northern Iowa at Evansville - Panthers by 4
(23) Illinois at (4) Wisconsin - Badgers by 14
Texas at (11) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 20
(15) Colorado vs. Washington State - Buffaloes by 10
Miami (FL) at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 14
New Mexico at Wyoming - Lobos by 1
Arkansas at Texas A&M - Razorbacks by 10
Northern Illinois at Buffalo - Bulls by 6
Nevada at UNLV - Rebels by 13
Colorado State at San Jose State - Rams by 3
Air Force at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 15
Utah at Washington - Utes by 8
Boise State at (13) San Diego State - Aztecs by 13

Pick of the Day #60

Kentucky

The Wildcats host Mississippi State this evening, and the Bulldogs are possibly the worst team in the conference, so Kentucky better not lose this one.

Prediction Results

NBA: 8-4 (.667) 331-187 overall (.639)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 46-52 overall (.469)
College Basketball: 16-3 (.842) 2142-563 overall (.792)
Upsets: 3-0 (1.000) 264-153 overall (.633)

I now have 16 straight college basketball upsets picked correctly.

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

NFL Playoff Odds - 7 Jan

Wild Card weekend is over, and only one home team won last weekend, but it took an historic comeback by the Colts to beat the Chiefs and buck the trend. I've updated each team's odds of advancing through each remaining round, and I've included how much each team's odds have changed in parentheses.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

1. Denver - 74.1% (+1.2)
2. Seattle - 66.8% (-1.1)
3. New England - 59.6% (+2.2)
4. Carolina - 54.8% (-11.3)
5. San Francisco - 45.2% (+13.4)
6. Indianapolis - 40.4% (+24.6)
7. New Orleans - 33.2% (+12.8)
8. San Diego - 25.9% (+17.0)

Seattle and Carolina were hurt by the two better teams advancing on Wild Card weekend, giving each a bigger challenge than the other division winners would have given them. Denver and New England were helped out by the lower-rated teams winning both games this weekend, allowing them a slightly easier path through the next round.

Odds of Making Super Bowl

1. Denver - 53.3% (+2.3)
2. Seattle - 43.4% (-2.3)
3. Carolina - 23.1% (-4.5)
4. New England - 22.3% (+0.3)
5. San Francisco - 19.6% (+5.2)
6. New Orleans - 14.0% (+5.1)
7. Indianapolis - 13.7% (+7.8)
8. San Diego - 10.7% (+7.7)

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Denver - 27.9% (+1.6)
2. Seattle - 26.3% (-1.7)
3. Carolina - 11.8% (-2.5)
4. San Francisco - 10.3% (+2.5)
5. New England - 8.4% (+0.0)
6. New Orleans - 7.0% (+2.5)
7. Indianapolis - 4.7% (+2.7)
8. San Diego - 3.6% (+2.7)

The only team whose odds increased without winning last weekend was Denver, who must feel like they hit the lottery with Kansas City being eliminated and Indianapolis going to New England. While they may be excited to be facing the lowest seed in the AFC, they should be careful, because the Chargers were the only road team to win in Denver this season.

Updated Playoff Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Second Round

Broncos over Chargers
Patriots over Colts
Seahawks over Saints
49ers over Panthers

Conference Finals

Broncos over Patriots
Seahawks over 49ers

Super Bowl

Broncos 32, Seahawks 31

The only real change here is that I have moved the Patriots into the spot that Cincinnati had last week as the team Denver beats to make the Super Bowl.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Washington at Charlotte - Bobcats by 2
Philadelphia at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 7
Toronto at Indiana - Pacers by 9
New Orleans at Miami - Heat by 8
Detroit at New York - Knicks by 4
Phoenix at Chicago - Suns by 2
San Antonio at Memphis - Spurs by 4
Golden State at Milwaukee - Warriors by 12
LA Lakers at Dallas - Mavericks by 9
Boston at Denver - Nuggets by 7
Oklahoma City at Utah - Thunder by 12
Portland at Sacramento - Trail Blazers by 6

College Basketball

(7) Baylor at (9) Iowa State - Cyclones by 17
Georgia Tech at (16) Duke - Blue Devils by 21
Navy at Boston - Terriers by 14
James Madison at Charleston - Cougars by 7
New Hampshire at Brown - Bears by 18
Hartford at Dartmouth - Big Green by 14
Saint Louis at Rhode Island - Billikens by 7
Tennessee at LSU - Tigers by 4
Hampton at North Carolina Central - Eagles by 15
(25) Kansas State at TCU - Wildcats by 1
Middle Tennessee at Tennessee State - Blue Raiders by 7
Youngstown State at Illinois-Chicago - Penguins by 3
Green Bay at Chicago State - Phoenix by 11
(2) Syracuse at Virginia Tech - Orange by 5
(3) Ohio State at (5) Michigan State - Spartans by 5
Cincinnati at Houston - Bearcats by 9
North Carolina State at Notre Dame - Fightin Irish by 9
Creighton at DePaul - Bluejays by 11
Vanderbilt at Alabama - Crimson Tide by 10

Pick of the Day #59

Duke

It's finally the Blue Devils' turn as my pick of the day. They face Georgia Tech in the attempt to run my streak to 59 to open the season.

Prediction Results

Bowls: 1-0 (1.000) 18-17 overall (.514)
NBA: 2-1 (.667) 323-183 overall (.638)
College Basketball: 15-3 (.833) 2126-560 overall (.792)
Upsets: 5-0 (1.000) 261-153 overall (.630)

I have now picked 13 straight college basketball upsets correctly.