Four of the top 7 teams lost this weekend, and a couple of other top 10 teams struggled before hanging on for the victory, leaving the title race as wide open as it has been in years. There are only two undefeated teams left, and only one from an AQ conference, but they (LSU) still have a difficult road ahead, even with only two weeks of football remaining. Here are this week's updated top 25 teams, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (AP) (BCS)
1. (4) LSU (11-0) -29.82 (1) (1)
2. (2) Oklahoma State (10-1) -28.14 (5) (4)
3. (3) Oregon (9-2) -27.79 (9) (10)
4. (5) Alabama (10-1) -27.76 (2) (2)
5. (1) Oklahoma (8-2) -26.29 (12) (9)
6. (6) Stanford (10-1) -23.39 (4) (6)
7. (7) Wisconsin (9-2) -23.18 (15) (16)
8. (9) Boise State (9-1) -20.07 (7) (7)
9. (8) Houston (11-0) -19.85 (8) (8)
10. (17) Michigan (9-2) -18.60 (17) (15)
11. (10) Texas A&M (6-5) -17.95 (NR) (NR)
12. (15) Arkansas (10-1) -16.35 (3) (3)
13. (19) USC (9-2) -15.34 (10) (NR)
14. (23) Michigan State (9-2) -14.55 (11) (14)
15. (12) Kansas State (9-2) -14.13 (16) (11)
16. (21) Utah (7-4) -12.18 (NR) (NR)
17. (11) Missouri (6-5) -11.63 (NR) (NR)
18. (18) Notre Dame (8-3) -11.38 (22) (22)
19. (22) TCU (9-2) -10.93 (19) (20)
20. (13) Texas (6-4) -10.90 (NR) (25)
21. (NR) California (6-5) -10.54 (NR) (NR)
22. (14) Georgia (9-2) -10.43 (13) (13)
23. (20) Arizona State (6-5) -10.12 (NR) (NR)
24. (25) Tulsa (8-3) -9.82 (27) (NR)
25. (16) Florida State (7-4) -9.63 (NR) (NR)
Dropped Out
(24) Miami (6-5) -7.98 (NR) (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 12: 6
Pac 12: 6
SEC: 4
Big 10: 3
MWC: 2
CUSA: 2
Ind: 1
ACC: 1
Of the 8 teams with one loss or fewer remaining, the one most likely to pick up another loss and lose their chance at the title is Arkansas, who has to face LSU on the road this weekend, with only a 14% chance of pulling off the upset. If, by chance, they do happen to win the game, they will most likely take over the #1 spot in the BCS, although they will almost definitely not play in the SEC Championship Game. A victory over LSU, combined with an Alabama win, which is quite likely, would create a 3-way tie in the SEC West, with LSU being eliminated first because they will probably be the lowest-ranked of the three, which would send Alabama to face Georgia for the conference title while Arkansas sits at home waiting to see who they'll face in the BCS title game, where they would almost definitely end up without even playing for their conference title. It could happen, but the odds aren't very good.
The next-most likely loser among the top 8 is Virginia State, who is the second-most overrated team in the country. They face in-state rival Virginia on the road this weekend, with the winner heading to the ACC title game to face Clemson. The odds of Tech surviving that game are 54%, and if that happens I would give them a 58% of beating Clemson. The overall odds that the Hokies lose again are 69%, which means their title dreams are more likely just wishes.
Houston's odds of losing are the third-highest, due to the fact that the two toughest teams on their schedule are still to come if they wish to remain undefeated. Their toughest test comes in Tulsa this week, where they have a 40% chance of losing in the game that will decide who goes to the Conference USA title game against Southern Miss. They would probably beat the Golden Eagles, but only if they can first take care of the Golden Hurricane. If they survive and only Boise and LSU remain with fewer than two losses, I would endorse the Cougars for a spot in the title game, but not otherwise.
Oklahoma State, who was undefeated just four days ago, could end the season with two losses, since they still have to welcome their toughest opponent and in-state rival Oklahoma to town in two weeks. Home field advantage will make the Cowboys favorites to win this game, but as of today I would only make the 7-point favorites, which is within the one-possession buffer zone, meaning the game could easily go either way.
LSU could also find themselves with a loss before the regular season ends, with two somewhat tough games remaining, if they can beat Arkansas. Winning that game would give them a berth in the SEC Championship, where they would face Georgia, in what would be a virtual home game for the Bulldogs in Atlanta. Neither game is a likely loss for the Tigers, but both teams have a chance of pulling off the upset, meaning LSU is still not assured of playing for the championship.
Stanford has one game remaining, with Notre Dame coming to town on Saturday, and while the Irish could pull off an upset, the Cardinal are still going to be big favorites at home, and because they lost to Oregon, they will probably not play in the Pac 12 title game, because the Ducks are unlikely to lose to the Oregon State Beavers in their final game. That loss could end up going in Stanford's favor, because it gives them one less chance at a loss this season, and many of the teams ahead of them could be in danger of falling.
It's not very likely that Alabama will lose again this year, but because their game against Auburn is a big rivalry game, you can't rule out the possibility of an upset completely. If they win that game and Arkansas upsets LSU, Alabama would be the most likely team to play in the SEC title game, where they would have to play Georgia in Atlanta, which would also be a slightly dangerous matchup, but not very likely to happen.
Among the top 8, the least likely loser is Boise State, who has two home games remaining, one against Wyoming, who is an average Mountain West team, and the other against New Mexico, who would lose to most FCS schools. The odds of losing either game are so slim that I will guarantee two victories to end the season, which means that the loss to TCU did not completely knock them from the BCS title conversation. One interesting scenario would have Boise State and Arkansas playing for the national championship without either having won their conference title. This would only require Arkansas to run away from LSU, Alabama to lose the SEC title to Georgia, OK State losing to Oklahoma, Virginia Tech losing as expected, and Stanford choking against Notre Dame. It's not too likely, but after last weekend, who knows where this season will end up.
Prediction Results
Ranked Teams: 19-10 (.655) 216-87 overall (.713)
Unranked Teams: 22-9 (.710) 96-46 overall (.676)
Upsets: 3-5 (.375) 39-60 overall (.394)
Monday, November 21, 2011
Thursday, November 17, 2011
NFL Rankings and Football Predictions
So far, there are only three NFL teams that have been consistent at all this year: Green Bay, San Francisco, and Indianapolis. Incidentally, those are the teams residing at the very top and very bottom of my rankings this week. The unsettled condition of the remaining teams has caused a lot of movement in the middle of the ranks, with a lot of teams that looked strong early in the season falling on hard times, such as Buffalo, Detroit, and Oakland. Here are this week's updated rankings, with spaces between groups of teams representing gaps in level of performance.
TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. Green Bay (9-0) -15.82 (2)
2. San Francisco (8-1) -11.92 (3)
3. Houston (7-3) -11.90 (9)
4. Chicago (6-3) -11.89 (4)
5. Detroit (6-3) -11.14 (1)
6. Baltimore (6-3) -10.29 (5)
7. New England (6-3) -10.16 (14)
8. Dallas (5-4) -10.12 (16)
9. New Orleans (7-3) -9.24 (8)
10. Pittsburgh (7-3) -7.79 (13)
11. Cincinnati (6-3) -5.37 (11)
12. Atlanta (5-4) -5.36 (6)
13. NY Jets (5-4) -4.48 (10)
14. NY Giants (6-3) -4.44 (15)
15. Philadelphia (3-6) -3.79 (7)
16. Tennessee (5-4) -3.33 (25)
17. Miami (2-7) -0.98 (20)
18. Seattle (3-6) -0.69 (26)
19. Buffalo (5-4) 1.04 (12)
20. Jacksonville (3-6) 1.17 (21)
21. Arizona (3-6) 1.20 (23)
22. Denver (4-5) 1.86 (28)
23. San Diego (4-5) 2.42 (22)
24. Washington (3-6) 2.64 (24)
25. Oakland (5-4) 3.52 (30)
26. Tampa Bay (4-5) 4.62 (19)
27. Minnesota (2-7) 4.93 (18)
28. Carolina (2-7) 5.12 (17)
29. Cleveland (3-6) 5.50 (29)
30. Saint Louis (2-7) 6.44 (27)
31. Kansas City (4-5) 12.84 (31)
32. Indianapolis (0-10) 15.83 (32)
Green Bay left no doubt as to their spot at the top of the rankings with a dominant victory over the Vikings on Monday Night Football. Green Bay has won 15 straight games, and they haven't lost a game by more than a possession in over 2 years. They've had a few close calls on the road this year, and they still have a couple of tough games left, but they are definitely the current Super Bowl favorites.
The Houston Texans are on fire lately, and it's not just because of their offense. In the past month, they have only been giving up an average of 10.5 points per game, and after a bye this week, their schedule looks like a smooth ride to a first-round bye and the first playoff appearance in franchise history.
One of the toughest teams to figure out this year has been Baltimore, which has impressive victories over the Jets, Houston, and Pittsburgh intertwined with losses to Jacksonville and Seattle and a lucky comeback victory over Arizona. You never know which Ravens will show up from week to week, and they better figure it out soon, because their next two games are against Cincinnati and San Francisco.
The Eagles, who looked so dominant against Dallas at the end of October, have done a complete 180 in only two weeks, putting up their worst performance of an already disappointing season in losing at home to the Arizona Cardinals, who were playing without their starting quarterback, who was Philly's backup one year ago.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Thursday
(20) Southern Miss at UAB - Golden Eagles by 28
North Carolina at (8) Virginia Tech - Hokies by 11
Marshall at Memphis - Thundering Herd by 21
NY Jets at Denver - Jets by 4
Friday
(2) Oklahoma State at Iowa State - Cowboys by 27
Toledo at Central Michigan - Rockets by 15
Saturday
Indiana at (15) Michigan State - Spartans by 31
(16) Nebraska at (18) Michigan - Wolverines by 11
(17) Wisconsin at Illinois - Badgers by 21
Kentucky at (14) Georgia - Bulldogs by 34
Mississippi State at (6) Arkansas - Razorbacks by 15
(7) Clemson at North Carolina State - Tigers by 5
(21) Penn State at Ohio State - Buckeyes by 5
SMU at (11) Houston - Cougars by 29
Colorado State at (19) TCU - Horned Frogs by 36
Kansas at Texas A&M - Aggies by 31
Texas Tech at Missouri - Tigers by 26
Miami at South Florida - Bulls by 3
Boston College at Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 31
Utah at Washington State - Utes by 6
(1) LSU at Mississippi - Tigers by 37
Virginia at (25) Florida State by 22
(5) Oklahoma at (22) Baylor - Sooners by 22
(13) Kansas State at (23) Texas - Longhorns by 4
(10) Boise State at San Diego State - Broncos by 19
USC at (4) Oregon - Ducks by 23
Tulsa at UTEP - Golden Hurricane by 12
Arizona at Arizona State - Sun Devils by 19
California at (9) Stanford - Cardinal by 23
Louisville at Connecticut - Huskies by 2
Minnesota at Northwestern - Wildcats by 17
Cincinnati at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 2
Akron at Buffalo - Bulls by 18
Iowa at Purdue - Hawkeyes by 4
Georgia Tech at Duke - Yellowjackets by 9
Army at Temple - Owls by 17
Eastern Michigan at Kent State - Golden Flashes by 9
New Mexico at Wyoming - Cowboys by 33
Maryland at Wake Forest - Demon Deacons by 17
Arkansas State at Middle Tennessee State - Red Wolves by 14
Washington at Oregon State - Huskies by 2
Tulane at Rice - Owls by 22
Florida Atlantic at Troy - Trojans by 13
Navy at San Jose State - Midshipmen by 4
Western Kentucky at North Texas - Mean Green by 1
Louisiana Tech at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 1
Utah State at Idaho - Aggies by 9
Florida International at Louisiana-Monroe - Warhawks by 4
UNLV at Air Force - Falcons by 21
UCF at East Carolina - Knights by 5
Vanderbilt at Tennessee - Commodores by 2
Colorado at UCLA - Bruins by 14
New Mexico State at BYU - Cougars by 24
Fresno State at Hawaii - Warriors by 10
Sunday
Jacksonville at Cleveland - Jaguars by 2
Carolina at Detroit - Lions by 19
Tampa Bay at Green Bay - Packers by 23
Buffalo at Miami - Dolphins by 5
Oakland at Minnesota - Vikings by 1
Dallas at Washington - Cowboys by 10
Cincinnati at Baltimore - Ravens by 7
Arizona at San Francisco - 49ers by 16
Seattle at Saint Louis - Seahawks by 5
Tennessee at Atlanta - Falcons by 5
San Diego at Chicago - Bears by 17
Philadelphia at NY Giants - Giants by 3
Monday
Kansas City at New England - Patriots by 26
Prediction Results
NFL: 6-10 (.375) 90-56 overall (.616)
Upsets: 2-2 (.500) 36-55 overall (.396)
TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. Green Bay (9-0) -15.82 (2)
2. San Francisco (8-1) -11.92 (3)
3. Houston (7-3) -11.90 (9)
4. Chicago (6-3) -11.89 (4)
5. Detroit (6-3) -11.14 (1)
6. Baltimore (6-3) -10.29 (5)
7. New England (6-3) -10.16 (14)
8. Dallas (5-4) -10.12 (16)
9. New Orleans (7-3) -9.24 (8)
10. Pittsburgh (7-3) -7.79 (13)
11. Cincinnati (6-3) -5.37 (11)
12. Atlanta (5-4) -5.36 (6)
13. NY Jets (5-4) -4.48 (10)
14. NY Giants (6-3) -4.44 (15)
15. Philadelphia (3-6) -3.79 (7)
16. Tennessee (5-4) -3.33 (25)
17. Miami (2-7) -0.98 (20)
18. Seattle (3-6) -0.69 (26)
19. Buffalo (5-4) 1.04 (12)
20. Jacksonville (3-6) 1.17 (21)
21. Arizona (3-6) 1.20 (23)
22. Denver (4-5) 1.86 (28)
23. San Diego (4-5) 2.42 (22)
24. Washington (3-6) 2.64 (24)
25. Oakland (5-4) 3.52 (30)
26. Tampa Bay (4-5) 4.62 (19)
27. Minnesota (2-7) 4.93 (18)
28. Carolina (2-7) 5.12 (17)
29. Cleveland (3-6) 5.50 (29)
30. Saint Louis (2-7) 6.44 (27)
31. Kansas City (4-5) 12.84 (31)
32. Indianapolis (0-10) 15.83 (32)
Green Bay left no doubt as to their spot at the top of the rankings with a dominant victory over the Vikings on Monday Night Football. Green Bay has won 15 straight games, and they haven't lost a game by more than a possession in over 2 years. They've had a few close calls on the road this year, and they still have a couple of tough games left, but they are definitely the current Super Bowl favorites.
The Houston Texans are on fire lately, and it's not just because of their offense. In the past month, they have only been giving up an average of 10.5 points per game, and after a bye this week, their schedule looks like a smooth ride to a first-round bye and the first playoff appearance in franchise history.
One of the toughest teams to figure out this year has been Baltimore, which has impressive victories over the Jets, Houston, and Pittsburgh intertwined with losses to Jacksonville and Seattle and a lucky comeback victory over Arizona. You never know which Ravens will show up from week to week, and they better figure it out soon, because their next two games are against Cincinnati and San Francisco.
The Eagles, who looked so dominant against Dallas at the end of October, have done a complete 180 in only two weeks, putting up their worst performance of an already disappointing season in losing at home to the Arizona Cardinals, who were playing without their starting quarterback, who was Philly's backup one year ago.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Thursday
(20) Southern Miss at UAB - Golden Eagles by 28
North Carolina at (8) Virginia Tech - Hokies by 11
Marshall at Memphis - Thundering Herd by 21
NY Jets at Denver - Jets by 4
Friday
(2) Oklahoma State at Iowa State - Cowboys by 27
Toledo at Central Michigan - Rockets by 15
Saturday
Indiana at (15) Michigan State - Spartans by 31
(16) Nebraska at (18) Michigan - Wolverines by 11
(17) Wisconsin at Illinois - Badgers by 21
Kentucky at (14) Georgia - Bulldogs by 34
Mississippi State at (6) Arkansas - Razorbacks by 15
(7) Clemson at North Carolina State - Tigers by 5
(21) Penn State at Ohio State - Buckeyes by 5
SMU at (11) Houston - Cougars by 29
Colorado State at (19) TCU - Horned Frogs by 36
Kansas at Texas A&M - Aggies by 31
Texas Tech at Missouri - Tigers by 26
Miami at South Florida - Bulls by 3
Boston College at Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 31
Utah at Washington State - Utes by 6
(1) LSU at Mississippi - Tigers by 37
Virginia at (25) Florida State by 22
(5) Oklahoma at (22) Baylor - Sooners by 22
(13) Kansas State at (23) Texas - Longhorns by 4
(10) Boise State at San Diego State - Broncos by 19
USC at (4) Oregon - Ducks by 23
Tulsa at UTEP - Golden Hurricane by 12
Arizona at Arizona State - Sun Devils by 19
California at (9) Stanford - Cardinal by 23
Louisville at Connecticut - Huskies by 2
Minnesota at Northwestern - Wildcats by 17
Cincinnati at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 2
Akron at Buffalo - Bulls by 18
Iowa at Purdue - Hawkeyes by 4
Georgia Tech at Duke - Yellowjackets by 9
Army at Temple - Owls by 17
Eastern Michigan at Kent State - Golden Flashes by 9
New Mexico at Wyoming - Cowboys by 33
Maryland at Wake Forest - Demon Deacons by 17
Arkansas State at Middle Tennessee State - Red Wolves by 14
Washington at Oregon State - Huskies by 2
Tulane at Rice - Owls by 22
Florida Atlantic at Troy - Trojans by 13
Navy at San Jose State - Midshipmen by 4
Western Kentucky at North Texas - Mean Green by 1
Louisiana Tech at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 1
Utah State at Idaho - Aggies by 9
Florida International at Louisiana-Monroe - Warhawks by 4
UNLV at Air Force - Falcons by 21
UCF at East Carolina - Knights by 5
Vanderbilt at Tennessee - Commodores by 2
Colorado at UCLA - Bruins by 14
New Mexico State at BYU - Cougars by 24
Fresno State at Hawaii - Warriors by 10
Sunday
Jacksonville at Cleveland - Jaguars by 2
Carolina at Detroit - Lions by 19
Tampa Bay at Green Bay - Packers by 23
Buffalo at Miami - Dolphins by 5
Oakland at Minnesota - Vikings by 1
Dallas at Washington - Cowboys by 10
Cincinnati at Baltimore - Ravens by 7
Arizona at San Francisco - 49ers by 16
Seattle at Saint Louis - Seahawks by 5
Tennessee at Atlanta - Falcons by 5
San Diego at Chicago - Bears by 17
Philadelphia at NY Giants - Giants by 3
Monday
Kansas City at New England - Patriots by 26
Prediction Results
NFL: 6-10 (.375) 90-56 overall (.616)
Upsets: 2-2 (.500) 36-55 overall (.396)
Monday, November 14, 2011
College Football Rankings - 14 Nov
There are now only two undefeated teams from AQ conferences, which means that those two teams control their own destiny, while a handful of one-loss teams and Houston sit waiting in the wings hoping that at least one of the slips up, allowing them to atone for their losses or weak schedule. Here are my current rankings, based completely on strength of schedule and quality of performance, for the top 25 teams in college football.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (AP) (BCS)
1. (1) Oklahoma (8-1) -36.52 (5) (5)
2. (5) Oklahoma State (10-0) -34.80 (2) (2)
3. (6) Oregon (9-1) -34.14 (4) (4)
4. (2) LSU (10-0) -30.06 (1) (1)
5. (4) Alabama (9-1) -29.17 (3) (3)
6. (3) Stanford (9-1) -28.28 (8) (9)
7. (7) Wisconsin (8-2) -27.28 (15) (17)
8. (9) Houston (10-0) -21.41 (11) (11)
9. (8) Boise State (8-1) -21.28 (10) (10)
10. (14) Texas A&M (5-5) -19.29 (NR) (NR)
11. (13) Missouri (5-5) -18.65 (NR) (NR)
12. (21) Kansas State (8-2) -18.55 (16) (13)
13. (12) Texas (6-3) -17.34 (31) (23)
14. (17) Georgia (8-2) -17.11 (13) (14)
15. (23) Arkansas (9-1) -16.42 (6) (6)
16. (10) Florida State (7-3) -16.31 (23) (25)
17. (19) Michigan (8-2) -16.10 (20) (18)
18. (15) Notre Dame (7-3) -16.08 (24) (NR)
19. (16) USC (8-2) -15.92 (18) (NR)
20. (11) Arizona State (6-4) -14.71 (33) (NR)
21. (18) Utah (6-4) -14.00 (NR) (NR)
22. (NR) TCU (8-2) -13.95 (19) (19)
23. (NR) Michigan State (8-2) -11.97 (12) (15)
24. (NR) Miami (5-5) -10.92 (NR) (NR)
25. (NR) Tulsa (7-3) -10.86 (30) (NR)
Dropped Out
(25) South Carolina (8-2) -10.27 (14) (12)
(20) Southern Miss (9-1) -8.95 (22) (20)
(22) Cincinnati (7-2) -7.85 (29) (NR)
(24) Clemson (9-1) -7.18 (7) (7)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 12 - 6
Pac 12 - 5
SEC - 4
Big 10 - 3
CUSA - 2
MWC - 2
ACC - 2
Ind - 1
It's hard to pick a team of the week, but it not difficult to pick out the two best choices - Oklahoma State and Oregon. Oklahoma State went to Texas Tech, the team that upset Oklahoma last week, and destroyed the Red Raiders 66-6, setting them up for a huge showdown with Oklahoma in two weeks that will have national championship implications, possibly for both teams. Oregon went to Stanford and blew out the team with the nation's longest winning streak, maintaining their status as the only team to beat the Cardinal in the past two seasons, and made a case that they may be the best one-loss team in the country, as they hope to earn a rematch with LSU in the national title game in January.
Auburn has become the most overrated team in the nation lately, somehow keeping a spot in the BCS top 25 despite having 4 losses, more than any other team in the rankings. Each of their 4 losses were by double digits, and even though all four were to current top 15 teams, their best win of the season is over South Carolina, another severely overrated SEC school.
Clemson is also very overrated, and you'll notice that they dropped from my top 25 this week. When you look at the teams they've beaten, the three best victories were over overrated Auburn and Virginia Tech teams, and over a Florida State team that was deflated after a loss that killed their national title hopes. Next week they play at South Carolina, which should prove just how weak the ACC leaders actually are.
Texas A&M is on the opposite side of the spectrum, although they still don't have a true signature win. They have lost 5 games, including overtime losses against very good Missouri and Kansas State teams, a 4-point loss to Arkansas, a single-point loss to Oklahoma State, and a loss to Oklahoma, currently the best overall team in the nation. The fact that they are currently in the strongest overall conference also helps them sneak into the top 10 despite three straight losses.
LSU slipped this week because of strength of schedule issues, specifically, playing Western Kentucky, who is currently ranked #88 out of 120 teams in the FBS. Houston has played several teams at that same level this season, but they make sure to blow them out of the water, while LSU allowed the Hilltoppers to hang around until late in the third quarter before putting them away.
Prediction Results
Ranked Teams: 18-7 (.720) 197-77 overall (.719)
Unranked Teams: 22-10 (.688) 74-37 overall (.667)
Upsets: 4-4 (.500) 34-53 overall (.391)
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (AP) (BCS)
1. (1) Oklahoma (8-1) -36.52 (5) (5)
2. (5) Oklahoma State (10-0) -34.80 (2) (2)
3. (6) Oregon (9-1) -34.14 (4) (4)
4. (2) LSU (10-0) -30.06 (1) (1)
5. (4) Alabama (9-1) -29.17 (3) (3)
6. (3) Stanford (9-1) -28.28 (8) (9)
7. (7) Wisconsin (8-2) -27.28 (15) (17)
8. (9) Houston (10-0) -21.41 (11) (11)
9. (8) Boise State (8-1) -21.28 (10) (10)
10. (14) Texas A&M (5-5) -19.29 (NR) (NR)
11. (13) Missouri (5-5) -18.65 (NR) (NR)
12. (21) Kansas State (8-2) -18.55 (16) (13)
13. (12) Texas (6-3) -17.34 (31) (23)
14. (17) Georgia (8-2) -17.11 (13) (14)
15. (23) Arkansas (9-1) -16.42 (6) (6)
16. (10) Florida State (7-3) -16.31 (23) (25)
17. (19) Michigan (8-2) -16.10 (20) (18)
18. (15) Notre Dame (7-3) -16.08 (24) (NR)
19. (16) USC (8-2) -15.92 (18) (NR)
20. (11) Arizona State (6-4) -14.71 (33) (NR)
21. (18) Utah (6-4) -14.00 (NR) (NR)
22. (NR) TCU (8-2) -13.95 (19) (19)
23. (NR) Michigan State (8-2) -11.97 (12) (15)
24. (NR) Miami (5-5) -10.92 (NR) (NR)
25. (NR) Tulsa (7-3) -10.86 (30) (NR)
Dropped Out
(25) South Carolina (8-2) -10.27 (14) (12)
(20) Southern Miss (9-1) -8.95 (22) (20)
(22) Cincinnati (7-2) -7.85 (29) (NR)
(24) Clemson (9-1) -7.18 (7) (7)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 12 - 6
Pac 12 - 5
SEC - 4
Big 10 - 3
CUSA - 2
MWC - 2
ACC - 2
Ind - 1
It's hard to pick a team of the week, but it not difficult to pick out the two best choices - Oklahoma State and Oregon. Oklahoma State went to Texas Tech, the team that upset Oklahoma last week, and destroyed the Red Raiders 66-6, setting them up for a huge showdown with Oklahoma in two weeks that will have national championship implications, possibly for both teams. Oregon went to Stanford and blew out the team with the nation's longest winning streak, maintaining their status as the only team to beat the Cardinal in the past two seasons, and made a case that they may be the best one-loss team in the country, as they hope to earn a rematch with LSU in the national title game in January.
Auburn has become the most overrated team in the nation lately, somehow keeping a spot in the BCS top 25 despite having 4 losses, more than any other team in the rankings. Each of their 4 losses were by double digits, and even though all four were to current top 15 teams, their best win of the season is over South Carolina, another severely overrated SEC school.
Clemson is also very overrated, and you'll notice that they dropped from my top 25 this week. When you look at the teams they've beaten, the three best victories were over overrated Auburn and Virginia Tech teams, and over a Florida State team that was deflated after a loss that killed their national title hopes. Next week they play at South Carolina, which should prove just how weak the ACC leaders actually are.
Texas A&M is on the opposite side of the spectrum, although they still don't have a true signature win. They have lost 5 games, including overtime losses against very good Missouri and Kansas State teams, a 4-point loss to Arkansas, a single-point loss to Oklahoma State, and a loss to Oklahoma, currently the best overall team in the nation. The fact that they are currently in the strongest overall conference also helps them sneak into the top 10 despite three straight losses.
LSU slipped this week because of strength of schedule issues, specifically, playing Western Kentucky, who is currently ranked #88 out of 120 teams in the FBS. Houston has played several teams at that same level this season, but they make sure to blow them out of the water, while LSU allowed the Hilltoppers to hang around until late in the third quarter before putting them away.
Prediction Results
Ranked Teams: 18-7 (.720) 197-77 overall (.719)
Unranked Teams: 22-10 (.688) 74-37 overall (.667)
Upsets: 4-4 (.500) 34-53 overall (.391)
Thursday, November 10, 2011
NFL Rankings and Football Predictions
A busy week has kept me from getting to this until the very last minute, but since there are both college and NFL games tonight, I'm doing a double post in preparation. Road teams had a field day on Sunday, winning 10 of the 14 total games. Green Bay remained undefeated, but weren't as dominant as they should have been against San Diego, so they lost their top spot in the rankings. Here are my new completely unbiased statistical rankings for each team.
TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. Detroit (6-2) -10.85 (2)
2. Green Bay (8-0) -10.53 (1)
3. San Francisco (7-1) -8.52 (3)
4. Chicago (5-3) -7.10 (9)
5. Baltimore (6-2) -6.88 (8)
6. Atlanta (5-3) -5.61 (10)
7. Philadelphia (3-5) -5.16 (6)
8. New Orleans (6-3) -5.13 (4)
9. Houston (6-3) -4.05 (7)
10. NY Jets (5-3) -3.97 (15)
11. Cincinnati (6-2) -3.83 (11)
12. Buffalo (5-3) -2.38 (5)
13. Pittsburgh (6-3) -1.57 (13)
14. New England (5-3) -1.23 (12)
15. NY Giants (6-2) 0.33 (18)
16. Dallas (4-4) 0.81 (14)
17. Carolina (2-6) 1.57 (16)
18. Minnesota (2-6) 2.07 (17)
19. Tampa Bay (4-4) 3.15 (19)
20. Miami (1-7) 3.75 (30)
21. Jacksonville (2-6) 4.00 (20)
22. San Diego (4-4) 4.61 (23)
23. Arizona (2-6) 5.04 (22)
24. Washington (3-5) 5.13 (21)
25. Tennessee (4-4) 5.32 (24)
26. Seattle (2-6) 8.19 (26)
27. Saint Louis (1-7) 9.00 (27)
28. Denver (3-5) 9.27 (31)
29. Cleveland (3-5) 9.36 (28)
30. Oakland (4-4) 13.87 (29)
31. Kansas City (4-4) 14.27 (25)
32. Indianapolis (0-9) 18.57 (32)
Team of the Week
The Miami Dolphins, winless entering the weekend, were starting a new quarterback and going on the road to face a Kansas City team that had won 4 games in a row, so what happened next was nothing short of miraculous. The Dolphins didn't just win the game, they dominated from beginning to end, winning by the largest margin of any team over the weekend, 31-3. With the struggling Redskins coming to Miami this weekend, they may start a winning streak of their own.
Predictions
Thursday
Oakland at San Diego - Chargers by 12
(10) Virginia Tech at (21) Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 9
(11) Houston at Tulane - Cougars by 39
Ohio at Central Michigan - Bobcats by 10
Friday
South Florida at Syracuse - Bulls by 3
Saturday
(16) Texas at Missouri - Tigers by 5
(19) Nebraska at (12) Penn State - Nittany Lions by 3
Wake Forest at (9) Clemson - Tigers by 19
West Virginia at (23) Cincinnati - Bearcats by 11
(17) Michigan State at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 4
Florida at (13) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 10
(2) Oklahoma State at Texas Tech - Cowboys by 26
(25) Baylor at Kansas - Bears by 16
TCU at (5) Boise State - Broncos by 19
Miami at Florida State - Seminoles by 17
Washington at USC - Trojans by 11
Texas A&M at (14) Kansas State - Wildcats by 2
(20) Auburn at (15) Georgia - Bulldogs by 17
(18) Wisconsin at Minnesota - Badgers by 29
(24) Michigan at Illinois - Wolverines by 5
Tennessee at (8) Arkansas - Razorbacks by 14
UCLA at Utah - Utes by 13
Western Kentucky at LSU - Tigers by 48
Notre Dame at Maryland - Fighting Irish by 22
(3) Alabama at Mississippi State - Crimson Tide by 18
(7) Oregon at (4) Stanford - Cardinal by 11
UCF at (22) Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 22
Arizona State at Washington State - Sun Devils by 13
Rice at Northwestern - Wildcats by 19
Pittsburgh at Louisville - Cardinals by 4
Marshall at Tulsa - Golden Hurricane by 17
Ohio State at Purdue - Buckeyes by 7
Kentucky at Vanderbilt - Commodores by 18
North Carolina State at Boston College - Wolfpack by 5
Buffalo at Eastern Michigan - Eagles by 7
North Texas at Troy - Trojans by 1
Wyoming at Air Force - Falcons by 12
Kent State at Akron - Golden Flashes by 9
Arizona at Colorado - Wildcats by 11
Duke at Virginia - Cavaliers by 17
San Jose State at Utah State - Aggies by 14
Louisiana-Lafayette at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 9
Rutgers vs. Army - Scarlet Knights by 13
Middle Tennessee at Louisiana-Monroe - Warhawks by 15
Navy at SMU - Mustangs by 7
UAB at Memphis - Tigers by 2
San Diego State at Colorado State - Aztecs by 9
FAU at FIU - Golden Panthers by 24
Oregon State at California - Golden Bears by 10
Louisiana Tech at Mississippi - Bulldogs by 10
Fresno State at New Mexico State - Bulldogs by 3
East Carolina at UTEP - Miners by 12
Idaho at BYU - Cougars by 20
UNLV at New Mexico - Rebels by 17
Hawaii at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 9
Sunday
Arizona at Philadelphia - Eagles by 13
New Orleans at Atlanta - Falcons by 3
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - Bengals by 5
Saint Louis at Cleveland - Browns by 2
Buffalo at Dallas - Bills by 1
Jacksonville at Indianapolis - Jaguars by 12
Denver at Kansas City - Broncos by 2
Washington at Miami - Dolphins by 4
Houston at Tampa Bay - Texans by 4
Tennessee at Carolina - Panthers by 7
Baltimore at Seattle - Ravens by 12
Detroit at Chicago - Lions by 1
NY Giants at San Francisco - 49ers by 12
New England at NY Jets - Jets by 6
Monday
Minnesota at Green Bay - Packers by 15
Prediction Results
NFL: 8-6 (.571) 84-46 overall (.646)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 30-49 overall (.380)
Monday, November 7, 2011
College Football Rankings - 7 Nov
This weekend's Alabama-LSU game certainly lived up to the hype, with neither team able to overcome the other's defense and the game being decided by a field goal in overtime. Among the other unbeaten teams, only Houston did not struggle with an inferior opponent, which made the top of the rankings a little interesting this week. Here are this week's rankings, with current ranking followed by previous ranking, team name, overall record, rating, AP Rank, and BCS rank.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (AP) (BCS)
1. (6) Oklahoma (8-1) -33.07 (7) (6)
2. (4) LSU (9-0) -31.58 (1) (1)
3. (1) Stanford (9-0) -31.46 (3) (4)
4. (2) Alabama (8-1) -28.33 (4) (3)
5. (3) Oklahoma State (9-0) -27.21 (2) (2)
6. (5) Oregon (8-1) -26.16 (6) (7)
7. (8) Wisconsin (7-2) -24.02 (16) (18)
8. (7) Boise State (8-0) -21.00 (5) (5)
9. (11) Houston (9-0) -18.36 (11) (11)
10. (18) Florida State (6-3) -17.64 (29) (NR)
11. (9) Arizona State (6-3) -16.99 (28) (NR)
12. (17) Texas (6-2) -16.69 (21) (16)
13. (10) Missouri (4-5) -15.96 (NR) (NR)
14. (13) Texas A&M (5-4) -15.10 (NR) (NR)
15. (15) Notre Dame (6-3) -14.20 (32) (NR)
16. (14) USC (7-2) -13.07 (18) (NR)
17. (21) Georgia (7-2) -12.90 (14) (15)
18. (22) Utah (5-4) -12.32 (NR) (NR)
19. (16) Michigan (7-2) -12.13 (22) (24)
20. (24) Southern Miss (8-1) -11.89 (25) (22)
21. (NR) Kansas State (7-2) -11.75 (17) (14)
22. (NR) Cincinnati (7-1) -10.86 (23) (23)
23. (NR) Arkansas (8-1) -10.44 (8) (8)
24. (NR) Clemson (8-1) -9.98 (9) (9)
25. (20) South Carolina (7-2) -9.73 (15) (13)
Dropped Out
(12) Nebraska (7-2) -9.12 (19) (19)
(25) Washington (6-3) -7.21 (30) (NR)
(23) Ohio State (6-3) -6.04 (27) (NR)
(19) Michigan State (7-2) -5.70 (13) (17)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
Pac 12 - 5
Big 10 - 2
CUSA - 2
ACC - 2
MWC - 1
Ind - 1
Big East - 1
Other than LSU, Oklahoma played the toughest opponent this weekend, and they handled the visiting Aggies well, taking a 41-10 lead into the 4th quarter before allowing a couple of late touchdowns. Because of that and the overall strength of the Big 12, which was the best of any conference in nonconference play this season, the Sooners have taken over the top spot in my rankings for the first time this season.
Because of how close the game between Alabama and LSU was, many are lobbying for a rematch in the national championship game, but I believe that it would not be fair given the circumstances. Because there is no true playoff system, we are relying on opinion to determine the best two teams, and if both are from the same conference, how can we be sure that the title goes to the top team from the best conference? I believe that in order to play in the BCS title game the way it's set up now, a team must be a conference champion, thereby allowing two teams that have not yet played from different regions to duke it out for the title. If a playoff system were set up, then I believe it would be fair to allow 2 teams from a conference in, and if those two happen to both reach the title game for a rematch, it would be justified.
Florida State is back after 3 straight losses spoiled their season, winning 4 in a row by at least 25 points each. Two of the losses were to Oklahoma and Clemson, which are totally understandable, so there's just the one unexplainable loss to Wake Forest keeping them from being considered for a BCS spot.
Texas has only two losses this season, and both are to top 5 teams, but they are being held down in the rankings because they have yet to beat a team that is even close to being ranked. Luckily, they have four chances remaining this season to get some quality wins and make a move in the rankings.
Kansas State returned to my rankings this week after they came within one final play of upsetting Oklahoma State on the road. They have losses to the same two teams as Texas does, but they have also grabbed a couple of decent victories over Baylor and Missouri. It should be interesting to see which is really better when they play in 2 weeks.
Prediction Results
Ranked Teams: 16-7 (.696) 179-70 overall (.719)
Unranked Teams: 21-6 (.778) 52-27 overall (.658)
Upsets: 4-4 (.500) 30-48 overall (.385)
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (AP) (BCS)
1. (6) Oklahoma (8-1) -33.07 (7) (6)
2. (4) LSU (9-0) -31.58 (1) (1)
3. (1) Stanford (9-0) -31.46 (3) (4)
4. (2) Alabama (8-1) -28.33 (4) (3)
5. (3) Oklahoma State (9-0) -27.21 (2) (2)
6. (5) Oregon (8-1) -26.16 (6) (7)
7. (8) Wisconsin (7-2) -24.02 (16) (18)
8. (7) Boise State (8-0) -21.00 (5) (5)
9. (11) Houston (9-0) -18.36 (11) (11)
10. (18) Florida State (6-3) -17.64 (29) (NR)
11. (9) Arizona State (6-3) -16.99 (28) (NR)
12. (17) Texas (6-2) -16.69 (21) (16)
13. (10) Missouri (4-5) -15.96 (NR) (NR)
14. (13) Texas A&M (5-4) -15.10 (NR) (NR)
15. (15) Notre Dame (6-3) -14.20 (32) (NR)
16. (14) USC (7-2) -13.07 (18) (NR)
17. (21) Georgia (7-2) -12.90 (14) (15)
18. (22) Utah (5-4) -12.32 (NR) (NR)
19. (16) Michigan (7-2) -12.13 (22) (24)
20. (24) Southern Miss (8-1) -11.89 (25) (22)
21. (NR) Kansas State (7-2) -11.75 (17) (14)
22. (NR) Cincinnati (7-1) -10.86 (23) (23)
23. (NR) Arkansas (8-1) -10.44 (8) (8)
24. (NR) Clemson (8-1) -9.98 (9) (9)
25. (20) South Carolina (7-2) -9.73 (15) (13)
Dropped Out
(12) Nebraska (7-2) -9.12 (19) (19)
(25) Washington (6-3) -7.21 (30) (NR)
(23) Ohio State (6-3) -6.04 (27) (NR)
(19) Michigan State (7-2) -5.70 (13) (17)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
Pac 12 - 5
Big 10 - 2
CUSA - 2
ACC - 2
MWC - 1
Ind - 1
Big East - 1
Other than LSU, Oklahoma played the toughest opponent this weekend, and they handled the visiting Aggies well, taking a 41-10 lead into the 4th quarter before allowing a couple of late touchdowns. Because of that and the overall strength of the Big 12, which was the best of any conference in nonconference play this season, the Sooners have taken over the top spot in my rankings for the first time this season.
Because of how close the game between Alabama and LSU was, many are lobbying for a rematch in the national championship game, but I believe that it would not be fair given the circumstances. Because there is no true playoff system, we are relying on opinion to determine the best two teams, and if both are from the same conference, how can we be sure that the title goes to the top team from the best conference? I believe that in order to play in the BCS title game the way it's set up now, a team must be a conference champion, thereby allowing two teams that have not yet played from different regions to duke it out for the title. If a playoff system were set up, then I believe it would be fair to allow 2 teams from a conference in, and if those two happen to both reach the title game for a rematch, it would be justified.
Florida State is back after 3 straight losses spoiled their season, winning 4 in a row by at least 25 points each. Two of the losses were to Oklahoma and Clemson, which are totally understandable, so there's just the one unexplainable loss to Wake Forest keeping them from being considered for a BCS spot.
Texas has only two losses this season, and both are to top 5 teams, but they are being held down in the rankings because they have yet to beat a team that is even close to being ranked. Luckily, they have four chances remaining this season to get some quality wins and make a move in the rankings.
Kansas State returned to my rankings this week after they came within one final play of upsetting Oklahoma State on the road. They have losses to the same two teams as Texas does, but they have also grabbed a couple of decent victories over Baylor and Missouri. It should be interesting to see which is really better when they play in 2 weeks.
Prediction Results
Ranked Teams: 16-7 (.696) 179-70 overall (.719)
Unranked Teams: 21-6 (.778) 52-27 overall (.658)
Upsets: 4-4 (.500) 30-48 overall (.385)
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Football Predictions - 3-7 Nov
Thursday
Florida State at Boston College - Seminoles by 17
Akron at Miami-Ohio - Redhawks by 26
Tulsa at Central Florida - Golden Hurricane by 5
Friday
USC at Colorado - Trojans by 19
Central Michigan at Kent State - Golden Flashes by 11
Saturday
Indiana at Ohio State - Buckeyes by 36
Minnesota at (17) Michigan State - Spartans by 31
Texas Tech at (21) Texas - Longhorns by 23
Louisville at (24) West Virginia - Mountaineers by 16
(15) Michigan at Iowa - Wolverines by 9
New Mexico State at (18) Georgia - Bulldogs by 32
Northwestern at (10) Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 23
Texas A&M at (6) Oklahoma - Sooners by 18
(4) Stanford at Oregon State - Cardinal by 27
Purdue at (20) Wisconsin - Badgers by 34
(25) Southern Mississippi at East Carolina - Golden Eagles by 17
(13) Houston at UAB - Cougars by 36
Missouri at Baylor - Tigers by 6
Utah at Arizona - Wildcats by 3
(9) South Carolina at (7) Arkansas - Razorbacks by 3
(19) Arizona State at UCLA - Sun Devils by 13
Notre Dame at Wake Forest - Fighting Irish by 16
(14) Kansas State at (3) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 31
(1) LSU at (2) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 6
(5) Boise State at UNLV - Broncos by 40
(8) Oregon at Washington - Ducks by 11
Syracuse at Connecticut - Huskies by 3
Ball State at Eastern Michigan - Eagles by 7
Vanderbilt at Florida - Gators by 10
Kansas at Iowa State - Cyclones by 28
Virginia at Maryland - Cavaliers by 1
North Carolina at North Carolina State - Tar Heels by 4
TCU at Wyoming - Horned Frogs by 10
Duke at Miami - Hurricanes by 14
Tulane at SMU - Mustangs by 34
Mississippi at Kentucky - Rebels by 1
UTEP at Rice - Miners by 1
Louisiana-Monroe at Louisiana-Lafayette - Ragin Cajuns by 13
Army at Air Force - Falcons by 18
Troy at Navy - Midshipmen by 15
Idaho at San Jose State - Spartans by 15
Florida International at Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers by 4
Arkansas State at Florida Atlantic - Red Wolves by 20
Washington State at California - Golden Bears by 6
South Florida at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 3
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh - Bearcats by 2
Middle Tennessee at Tennessee - Volunteers by 29
New Mexico at San Diego State - Aztecs by 47
Louisiana Tech at Fresno State - LT Bulldogs by 2
Sunday
Utah State at Hawaii - Warriors by 5
Atlanta at Indianapolis - Falcons by 21
NY Jets at Buffalo - Bills by 12
Cleveland at Houston - Texans by 19
Seattle at Dallas - Cowboys by 12
Miami at Kansas City - Chiefs by 5
Tampa Bay at New Orleans - Saints by 16
San Francisco at Washington - 49ers by 10
Cincinnati at Tennessee - Bengals by 6
Denver at Oakland - Raiders by 7
Green Bay at San Diego - Packers by 13
Saint Louis at Arizona - Cardinals by 7
NY Giants at New England - Patriots by 11
Baltimore at Pittsburgh - Steelers by 1
Monday
Chicago at Philadelphia - Eagles by 6
Florida State at Boston College - Seminoles by 17
Akron at Miami-Ohio - Redhawks by 26
Tulsa at Central Florida - Golden Hurricane by 5
Friday
USC at Colorado - Trojans by 19
Central Michigan at Kent State - Golden Flashes by 11
Saturday
Indiana at Ohio State - Buckeyes by 36
Minnesota at (17) Michigan State - Spartans by 31
Texas Tech at (21) Texas - Longhorns by 23
Louisville at (24) West Virginia - Mountaineers by 16
(15) Michigan at Iowa - Wolverines by 9
New Mexico State at (18) Georgia - Bulldogs by 32
Northwestern at (10) Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 23
Texas A&M at (6) Oklahoma - Sooners by 18
(4) Stanford at Oregon State - Cardinal by 27
Purdue at (20) Wisconsin - Badgers by 34
(25) Southern Mississippi at East Carolina - Golden Eagles by 17
(13) Houston at UAB - Cougars by 36
Missouri at Baylor - Tigers by 6
Utah at Arizona - Wildcats by 3
(9) South Carolina at (7) Arkansas - Razorbacks by 3
(19) Arizona State at UCLA - Sun Devils by 13
Notre Dame at Wake Forest - Fighting Irish by 16
(14) Kansas State at (3) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 31
(1) LSU at (2) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 6
(5) Boise State at UNLV - Broncos by 40
(8) Oregon at Washington - Ducks by 11
Syracuse at Connecticut - Huskies by 3
Ball State at Eastern Michigan - Eagles by 7
Vanderbilt at Florida - Gators by 10
Kansas at Iowa State - Cyclones by 28
Virginia at Maryland - Cavaliers by 1
North Carolina at North Carolina State - Tar Heels by 4
TCU at Wyoming - Horned Frogs by 10
Duke at Miami - Hurricanes by 14
Tulane at SMU - Mustangs by 34
Mississippi at Kentucky - Rebels by 1
UTEP at Rice - Miners by 1
Louisiana-Monroe at Louisiana-Lafayette - Ragin Cajuns by 13
Army at Air Force - Falcons by 18
Troy at Navy - Midshipmen by 15
Idaho at San Jose State - Spartans by 15
Florida International at Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers by 4
Arkansas State at Florida Atlantic - Red Wolves by 20
Washington State at California - Golden Bears by 6
South Florida at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 3
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh - Bearcats by 2
Middle Tennessee at Tennessee - Volunteers by 29
New Mexico at San Diego State - Aztecs by 47
Louisiana Tech at Fresno State - LT Bulldogs by 2
Sunday
Utah State at Hawaii - Warriors by 5
Atlanta at Indianapolis - Falcons by 21
NY Jets at Buffalo - Bills by 12
Cleveland at Houston - Texans by 19
Seattle at Dallas - Cowboys by 12
Miami at Kansas City - Chiefs by 5
Tampa Bay at New Orleans - Saints by 16
San Francisco at Washington - 49ers by 10
Cincinnati at Tennessee - Bengals by 6
Denver at Oakland - Raiders by 7
Green Bay at San Diego - Packers by 13
Saint Louis at Arizona - Cardinals by 7
NY Giants at New England - Patriots by 11
Baltimore at Pittsburgh - Steelers by 1
Monday
Chicago at Philadelphia - Eagles by 6
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
NFL Rankings - 2 Nov
Last week's #1 team, the New Orleans Saints, didn't show up this week in a pushover game against Saint Louis and ended up going down hard. That loss left a hole at the top, but San Francisco didn't play well enough to regain the top spot with a 10-point win over Cleveland, which leaves undefeated Green Bay, as well as big winners Buffalo and Detroit, to fight over the top spot. Here are this week's rankings, with team name followed by overall record, rating, and previous ranking.
TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. Green Bay (7-0) -14.52 (3)
2. Detroit (6-2) -13.18 (4)
3. San Francisco (6-1) -11.87 (2)
4. New Orleans (5-3) -10.93 (1)
5. Buffalo (5-2) -10.84 (11)
6. Philadelphia (3-4) -10.16 (12)
7. Houston (5-3) -9.18 (5)
8. Baltimore (5-2) -9.08 (8)
9. Chicago (4-3) -8.10 (6)
10. Atlanta (4-3) -7.83 (10)
11. Cincinnati (5-2) -6.76 (16)
12. New England (5-2) -6.46 (7)
13. Pittsburgh (6-2) -5.70 (15)
14. Dallas (3-4) -2.56 (9)
15. NY Jets (4-3) -2.08 (13)
16. Carolina (2-6) -1.16 (14)
17. Minnesota (2-6) -1.10 (19)
18. NY Giants (5-2) 0.45 (20)
19. Tampa Bay (4-3) 0.92 (17)
20. Jacksonville (2-6) 1.05 (23)
21. Washington (3-4) 1.50 (21)
22. Arizona (1-6) 2.20 (28)
23. San Diego (4-3) 2.30 (18)
24. Tennessee (4-3) 2.95 (27)
25. Kansas City (4-3) 5.55 (22)
26. Seattle (2-5) 5.72 (24)
27. Saint Louis (1-6) 5.85 (31)
28. Cleveland (3-4) 6.49 (30)
29. Oakland (4-3) 6.66 (25)
30. Miami (0-7) 7.15 (29)
31. Denver (2-5) 10.19 (26)
32. Indianapolis (0-8) 16.41 (32)
This week's most surprising team was Saint Louis, who was given almost no chance to beat the top-rated Saints, but they led New Orleans 24-0 with 21 minutes left in the game. It was the first win of the season for the Rams, who were without starting quarterback Sam Bradford, so it looks like an obvious case of only one team showing up at the stadium.
The Cincinnati Bengals, minus Carson Palmer, have kept pace with the top teams in their division with 4 straight wins with rookies at starting quarterback and star receiver. November is not going to be nice to them, with games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but if they can pull through the month in decent fashion, they may be looking at a trip to the playoffs.
Philadelphia is finally starting to look like the dream team they were branded as before the season, beating the Dallas Cowboys in every facet of the game, taking a 34-0 lead in the 4th quarter before allowing their rivals one late score and losing their shutout. They've already pulled into a second-place tie in their division, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them win the division even after their early 4-game losing streak.
Buffalo retook the top spot in the AFC East with a dominant 23-0 victory over the Washington Redskins, a game which featured 9 sacks by the Bills defense. Both of the team's losses this season were by only three points and both came on the road, and they have beaten both New England and Philadelphia this season. What all this means is that the Bills are for real.
Prediction Results
NFL: 10-3 (.769) 76-40 overall (.655)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 29-47 overall (.382)
TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. Green Bay (7-0) -14.52 (3)
2. Detroit (6-2) -13.18 (4)
3. San Francisco (6-1) -11.87 (2)
4. New Orleans (5-3) -10.93 (1)
5. Buffalo (5-2) -10.84 (11)
6. Philadelphia (3-4) -10.16 (12)
7. Houston (5-3) -9.18 (5)
8. Baltimore (5-2) -9.08 (8)
9. Chicago (4-3) -8.10 (6)
10. Atlanta (4-3) -7.83 (10)
11. Cincinnati (5-2) -6.76 (16)
12. New England (5-2) -6.46 (7)
13. Pittsburgh (6-2) -5.70 (15)
14. Dallas (3-4) -2.56 (9)
15. NY Jets (4-3) -2.08 (13)
16. Carolina (2-6) -1.16 (14)
17. Minnesota (2-6) -1.10 (19)
18. NY Giants (5-2) 0.45 (20)
19. Tampa Bay (4-3) 0.92 (17)
20. Jacksonville (2-6) 1.05 (23)
21. Washington (3-4) 1.50 (21)
22. Arizona (1-6) 2.20 (28)
23. San Diego (4-3) 2.30 (18)
24. Tennessee (4-3) 2.95 (27)
25. Kansas City (4-3) 5.55 (22)
26. Seattle (2-5) 5.72 (24)
27. Saint Louis (1-6) 5.85 (31)
28. Cleveland (3-4) 6.49 (30)
29. Oakland (4-3) 6.66 (25)
30. Miami (0-7) 7.15 (29)
31. Denver (2-5) 10.19 (26)
32. Indianapolis (0-8) 16.41 (32)
This week's most surprising team was Saint Louis, who was given almost no chance to beat the top-rated Saints, but they led New Orleans 24-0 with 21 minutes left in the game. It was the first win of the season for the Rams, who were without starting quarterback Sam Bradford, so it looks like an obvious case of only one team showing up at the stadium.
The Cincinnati Bengals, minus Carson Palmer, have kept pace with the top teams in their division with 4 straight wins with rookies at starting quarterback and star receiver. November is not going to be nice to them, with games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but if they can pull through the month in decent fashion, they may be looking at a trip to the playoffs.
Philadelphia is finally starting to look like the dream team they were branded as before the season, beating the Dallas Cowboys in every facet of the game, taking a 34-0 lead in the 4th quarter before allowing their rivals one late score and losing their shutout. They've already pulled into a second-place tie in their division, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them win the division even after their early 4-game losing streak.
Buffalo retook the top spot in the AFC East with a dominant 23-0 victory over the Washington Redskins, a game which featured 9 sacks by the Bills defense. Both of the team's losses this season were by only three points and both came on the road, and they have beaten both New England and Philadelphia this season. What all this means is that the Bills are for real.
Prediction Results
NFL: 10-3 (.769) 76-40 overall (.655)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 29-47 overall (.382)
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