After a crazy opening weekend full of upsets, including 3 of the top 8 seeds dropping, you would think that there would be a huge shift in the odds, but overall #1 Gonzaga is still alive and looking strong, so the other top teams are just jockeying for the second-best spot. I've updated each remaining team's odds of reaching the Final Four and winning the championship after including all data from games over the past couple weeks, with change from pre-tournament odds in parentheses:
Odds of Reaching Final Four
(1) Gonzaga - 54.7% (+17.9)
(2) Houston - 47.6% (+23.0)
(1) Baylor - 41.1% (+13.3)
(1) Michigan - 36.5% (+7.1)
(3) Arkansas - 34.0% (+24.7)
(2) Alabama - 30.6% (+12.4)
(8) Loyola Chicago - 27.6% (+21.1)
(6) USC - 23.7% (+9.6)
(5) Villanova - 22.5% (+10.9)
(4) Florida State - 17.1% (+9.4)
(11) UCLA - 15.7% (+12.0)
(11) Syracuse - 12.8% (+10.1)
(12) Oregon State - 12.0% (+9.9)
(7) Oregon - 11.9% (+6.6)
(5) Creighton - 9.8% (+5.0)
(15) Oral Roberts - 2.3% (+2.1)
Of course each team saw their odds rise, because 42 teams went home last week, but you can tell something from the teams who didn't see as big a rise as others, like Michigan, who still has to get through Alabama to get to the Final Four, and Oregon, USC, and Creighton, who still have Gonzaga in their way. Arkansas got past a tough Colgate team, and now has Oral Roberts up next, so their odds took the biggest jump of anyone.
Odds of Winning the Championship
(1) Gonzaga - 27.4% (+1.3)
(1) Baylor - 12.6% (+4.4)
(2) Houston - 11.7% (+5.0)
(1) Michigan - 9.4% (+0.7)
(6) USC - 6.9% (+4.6)
(2) Alabama - 6.7% (+2.5)
(3) Arkansas - 6.3% (+4.6)
(5) Villanova - 4.5% (+2.2)
(8) Loyola Chicago - 3.9% (+2.9)
(4) Florida State - 2.5% (+1.3)
(7) Oregon - 2.3% (+1.2)
(11) UCLA - 2.1% (+1.6)
(5) Creighton - 1.8% (+0.8)
(11) Syracuse - 1.0% (+0.7)
(12) Oregon State - 0.8% (+0.6)
(15) Oral Roberts - 0.04% (+0.03)
Houston saw the biggest jump in their odds, owing to them now being the top seed left in their region, while USC, who was a surprise inclusion on my original list of possible champs, saw the second-largest jump.
My Picks
Elite Eight
(1) Gonzaga
(6) USC
(1) Michigan
(2) Alabama
(1) Baylor
(3) Arkansas
(8) Loyola Chicago
(2) Houston
I put Alabama in here to replace BYU, Arkansas to replace Colgate, and Loyola to replace Illinois, who were my original picks, and all of which I picked to lose in the Sweet 16.
Final Four
(1) Gonzaga
(1) Michigan
(1) Baylor
(2) Houston
Championship
(1) Gonzaga
(2) Houston
Champion
(1) Gonzaga
No changes were necessary for the final 3 rounds, as every team I picked to reach those spots is still alive.
