Sunday, December 7, 2014

College Football Rankings - 7 Dec

The big news this week is not which team is at #1, but which teams are in the top 4 and in the first college football playoff. The official rankings were released a few minutes ago, but they don't quite match mine. Here are my full rankings for the conclusion of the regular season:





Rec
ProjRec
SOS
TW
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
Curr
1
1
Alabama
-27.955
12
1
12
1
5
2
2
TCU
-27.639
11
1
11
1
92
3
11
Ohio State
-26.711
12
1
12
1
68
4
4
Oregon
-26.086
12
1
12
1
70
5
3
Georgia
-22.41
9
3
9
3
16
6
5
Ole Miss
-21.598
9
3
9
3
2
7
8
Michigan State
-20.755
10
2
10
2
100
8
7
Mississippi State
-20.457
10
2
10
2
13
9
13
Baylor
-20.017
11
1
11
1
89
10
6
Boise State
-19.69
11
2
11
2
50
11
10
Louisiana Tech
-19.527
8
5
8
5
33
12
12
Arkansas
-19.471
6
6
6
6
3
13
9
Marshall
-19.148
12
1
12
1
103
14
14
Georgia Tech
-17.496
10
3
10
3
17
15
18
Auburn
-16.471
8
4
8
4
1
16
17
Memphis
-16.307
9
3
9
3
107
17
19
Kansas State
-15.224
9
3
9
3
39
18
15
Oklahoma
-15.222
8
4
8
4
29
19
20
Florida
-14.072
6
5
6
5
24
20
21
Brigham Young
-13.959
8
4
8
4
64
21
23
Clemson
-13.003
9
3
9
3
55
22
22
LSU
-12.773
8
4
8
4
7
23
25
Cincinnati
-12.369
9
3
9
3
84
24
24
USC
-11.883
8
4
8
4
77
25
27
Tennessee
-11.615
6
6
6
6
4
26
31
Florida State
-11.582
13
0
13
0
45
27
29
UCLA
-10.756
9
3
9
3
8
28
30
Colorado State
-10.596
10
2
10
2
106
29
32
Louisville
-10.332
9
3
9
3
67
30
33
Stanford
-10.236
7
5
7
5
51
31
36
UCF
-9.6425
9
3
9
3
122
32
35
West Virginia
-9.612
7
5
7
5
25
33
34
Western Michigan
-9.2254
8
4
8
4
119
34
26
Missouri
-9.2208
10
3
10
3
9
35
37
Georgia Southern
-8.7847
9
3
9
3
112
36
16
Wisconsin
-8.6441
10
3
10
3
99
37
57
Northern Illinois
-8.2319
11
2
11
2
110
38
40
Texas A&M
-8.2074
7
5
7
5
6
39
38
Arizona State
-8.0271
9
3
9
3
76
40
39
Utah State
-7.9926
9
4
9
4
73
41
42
Miami (FL)
-7.6913
6
6
6
6
12
42
28
Arizona
-7.4611
10
3
10
3
36
43
41
South Carolina
-7.3945
6
6
6
6
14
44
43
Arkansas State
-7.3356
8
4
8
4
105
45
45
Western Kentucky
-6.8894
8
4
8
4
72
46
46
Appalachian State
-6.5921
7
5
7
5
125
47
44
East Carolina
-6.4094
8
4
8
4
120
48
47
Louisiana-Lafayette
-6.3572
8
4
8
4
69
49
49
Washington
-5.708
8
5
8
5
95
50
54
Houston
-5.669
7
5
7
5
118
51
50
Boston College
-5.6594
7
5
7
5
52
52
48
Nebraska
-5.5886
9
3
9
3
90
53
52
Minnesota
-5.3922
8
4
8
4
57
54
53
UAB
-5.2946
5
7
5
7
32
55
56
Navy
-5.2921
6
5
7
5
80
56
55
Virginia Tech
-5.0463
6
6
6
6
22
57
51
Toledo
-4.7117
8
4
8
4
113
58
60
Virginia
-4.3488
6
6
6
6
23
59
58
Duke
-4.2887
9
3
9
3
111
60
59
Pittsburgh
-4.1962
6
6
6
6
48
61
62
North Carolina State
-4.0092
7
5
7
5
61
62
63
Air Force
-3.9926
9
3
9
3
98
63
61
Nevada
-3.908
7
5
7
5
65
64
64
San Diego State
-3.811
7
5
7
5
116
65
66
Texas
-1.6567
6
6
6
6
27
66
65
Utah
-1.6265
8
4
8
4
35
67
67
Texas State
-1.3824
6
6
6
6
127
68
70
Temple
-1.027
6
6
6
6
87
69
68
Middle Tennessee
-0.594
6
6
6
6
38
70
72
Fresno State
-0.0563
6
7
6
7
63
71
71
North Carolina
0.09621
5
7
5
7
19
72
73
Ball State
0.63674
5
7
5
7
121
73
69
Iowa
0.74917
7
5
7
5
115
74
74
UTEP
1.039
7
5
7
5
104
75
75
Maryland
1.65163
7
5
7
5
56
76
82
Penn State
1.68203
6
6
6
6
88
77
78
Central Michigan
1.74758
7
5
7
5
124
78
77
Rice
1.86925
7
5
7
5
82
79
84
Michigan
2.08645
5
7
5
7
59
80
79
Notre Dame
2.10759
7
5
7
5
58
81
76
Kentucky
2.25644
5
7
5
7
11
82
80
California
2.34153
5
7
5
7
37
83
83
Buffalo
3.21231
5
6
5
6
128
84
97
Oklahoma State
3.79104
6
6
6
6
30
85
85
Louisiana-Monroe
3.87757
4
8
4
8
74
86
87
Ohio
4.19482
6
6
6
6
102
87
86
Northwestern
4.48091
5
7
5
7
94
88
89
Old Dominion
4.67722
6
6
6
6
85
89
90
Florida Atlantic
4.85981
3
9
3
9
43
90
88
Illinois
4.86246
6
6
6
6
47
91
91
South Alabama
4.95745
6
6
6
6
71
92
92
Florida International
5.17093
4
8
4
8
101
93
94
North Texas
5.43529
4
8
4
8
117
94
93
Texas Tech
5.47612
4
8
4
8
15
95
96
Rutgers
6.28799
7
5
7
5
44
96
95
Akron
6.3041
5
7
5
7
123
97
81
Bowling Green
7.01777
7
6
7
6
93
98
98
Miami (OH)
7.52482
2
10
2
10
78
99
99
New Mexico
7.94992
4
8
4
8
81
100
100
Washington State
8.17927
3
9
3
9
34
101
104
Wyoming
8.32773
4
8
4
8
28
102
101
Indiana
8.37288
4
8
4
8
62
103
102
Syracuse
8.43947
3
9
3
9
49
104
103
Colorado
8.67245
2
10
2
10
31
105
105
Hawaii
8.77614
4
9
4
9
109
106
107
Southern Miss
9.02118
3
9
3
9
10
107
111
UTSA
9.9102
4
8
4
8
83
108
109
Vanderbilt
9.95481
3
9
3
9
18
109
110
Army
10.0167
4
7
4
8
114
110
106
Purdue
10.0417
3
9
3
9
75
111
112
Wake Forest
10.1703
3
9
3
9
41
112
116
Kent State
10.1708
2
9
2
9
96
113
113
Oregon State
10.1999
5
7
5
7
54
114
108
Tulane
10.7636
3
9
3
9
42
115
117
San Jose State
10.7723
3
9
3
9
46
116
114
Massachusetts
10.9119
3
9
3
9
126
117
115
South Florida
11.2452
4
8
4
8
91
118
118
Troy
11.3098
3
9
3
9
97
119
120
Idaho
12.2108
1
10
1
10
86
120
121
Tulsa
12.2237
2
10
2
10
60
121
122
UNLV
12.7897
2
11
2
11
53
122
123
Kansas
13.0331
3
9
3
9
20
123
119
Iowa State
15.4229
2
10
2
10
26
124
124
Connecticut
17.0243
2
10
2
10
79
125
125
New Mexico State
18.7193
2
10
2
10
108
126
126
Georgia State
21.7903
1
11
1
11
66
127
128
Southern Methodist
21.8498
1
11
1
11
21
128
127
Eastern Michigan
21.9175
2
10
2
10
40

Here is a breakdown of each of the top 6 playoff contenders and some pertinent stats, including their rank among the six in each category:

PD=Point Differential, SOS=Strength of Schedule Conf=Conference Strength

Alabama - PD +20.5 (5th), SOS #5 (1st), Conf (1st)
TCU - PD +26.5 (1st), SOS #92 (6th), Conf (3rd)
Ohio State - PD +24.0 (3rd), SOS #68 (3rd), Conf (5th)
Oregon - PD +23.8 (4th), SOS #70 (4th), Conf (2nd)
Baylor - PD +24.6 (2nd), SOS #89 (5th), Conf (3rd)
Florida State - PD +11.8 (6th), SOS #45 (2nd), Conf (4th)

By adding up those rankings, you end up with the 6 teams in this order:

Alabama - 7
TCU - 10
Oregon - 10
Baylor - 10
Ohio State - 11
Florida State - 12

The Seminoles are the worst of these 6 teams according to this method and my regular formula, but due to their undefeated record they are being allowed to participate in the playoff, which caused both Big 12 champs to be excluded. While a 4-team model is much better than the 2-team model of previous seasons, it still needs to be expanded to either 8 or 16 teams, which would make conference championships actually matter.

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