Tuesday, December 24, 2013

NFL Rankings - 24 Dec

Seattle had a huge lead last week at #1, so a close loss to Arizona did not cost them the top spot, although Denver did close the gap a bit. Those two teams, who have been at the top nearly all year, were also my preseason Super Bowl picks, and it's still looking good at this point. Here are my full rankings:

Rank
LW
Team
Rec
Rating
Pred
Ch
Seed
1
1
Seattle
12-3
-12.9396
13-3
-1
N1
2
2
Denver
12-3
-11.5184
13-3

A1
3
3
San Francisco
11-4
-10.0998
12-4
+1
N5
4
4
Carolina
11-4
-9.90631
12-4
+1
N2
5
5
New Orleans
10-5
-8.30694
11-5

N6
6
6
Kansas City
11-4
-6.97391
12-4

A5
7
7
Arizona
10-5
-6.79944
10-6


8
9
New England
11-4
-5.92152
12-4
+1
A2
9
8
Cincinnati
10-5
-5.20012
11-5
+1
A3
10
10
Indianapolis
10-5
-4.21595
11-5
+1
A4
11
12
San Diego
8-7
-2.77073
8-8


12
11
Saint Louis
7-8
-2.76981
7-9


13
17
Philadelphia
9-6
-2.08013
9-7


14
13
Miami
8-7
-0.64603
9-7

A6
15
15
Dallas
8-7
0.296788
9-7
+1
N4
16
19
Tennessee
6-9
0.382361
7-9
+1

17
14
Detroit
7-8
1.13486
8-8


18
21
Tampa Bay
4-11
1.767167
4-12
-1

19
22
Pittsburgh
7-8
2.168655
8-8
+1

20
24
Buffalo
6-9
2.795239
6-10


21
18
Baltimore
8-7
2.979823
8-8
-1

22
23
Atlanta
4-11
3.089585
4-12


23
20
Green Bay
7-7-1
3.308968
7-8-1
-1

24
16
Chicago
8-7
3.49701
9-7

N3
25
27
NY Giants
6-9
5.567282
7-9
+1

26
25
Minnesota
4-10-1
6.434807
4-11-1
-1

27
26
Cleveland
4-11
7.107739
4-12
-1

28
30
NY Jets
7-8
7.157685
7-9


29
28
Houston
2-13
7.485909
2-14


30
29
Oakland
4-11
7.565565
4-12


31
31
Washington
3-12
8.552312
3-13
-1

32
32
Jacksonville
4-11
10.48477
4-12



San Francisco clinched a playoff berth last night by beating Atlanta, but they still have no idea who or where they'll play in the playoffs. They can still get the #1 seed if they win and both Carolina and Seattle lose, but they could also end up as the #6 seed. Their game against the Cardinals this week will be one of many games with major playoff implications.

Carolina has made the playoffs as well, but they, like the 49ers, still have a lot to play for. A win clinches the division and a first-round bye and keeps the #1 seed within reach, but a loss could mean a wild card berth and a road playoff game.

New England has clinched their division, so they will get a playoff game at home, but they still could end up playing on Wild Card weekend if they lose this weekend. They also could take the #1 seed if they win and Denver loses, which would force Denver to travel to Foxboro for the AFC championship game, which could swing things in the Patriots' favor.

Odds

#1 Seed

Denver - 90.2%
New England - 9.8%
Seattle - 89.3%
Carolina - 8.0%
San Francisco - 2.7%

First-Round Bye

Denver - 100.0%
New England - 77.1%
Cincinnati - 17.8%
Indianapolis - 5.2%
Seattle - 89.3%
Carolina - 80.2%
New Orleans - 19.8%
San Francisco - 10.7%

Playoff Berth

Denver - 100.0%
New England - 100.0%
Cincinnati - 100.0%
Indianapolis - 100.0%
Kansas City - 100.0%
Miami - 64.4%
Baltimore - 19.7%
San Diego - 8.8%
Pittsburgh - 7.1%
Seattle - 100.0%
Carolina - 100.0%
San Francisco - 100.0%
New Orleans - 90.1%
Chicago - 55.6%
Dallas - 50.2%
Philadelphia - 49.8%
Green Bay - 44.4%
Arizona - 9.9%

18 of the 32 teams are still alive going into the final week of the season, but 6 will be eliminated on Sunday as the final 4 playoff spots are filled.

Predictions

College Football

Boise State vs. Oregon State - Broncos by 1

Prediction Results

Bowl Games: 1-0 (1.000) 3-2 overall (.600)
NFL: 1-0 (1.000) 148-90 overall (.622)
NBA: 7-4 (.636) 264-152 overall (.635)
Upsets: 0-2 (.000) 35-42 overall (.455)
College Basketball: 25-2 (.926) 1746-453 overall (.794)
Upsets: 4-1 (.800) 204-125 overall (.620)

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