College Football Preseason Rankings

It's just 3 weeks until football finally returns, and it's time to predict how each team will fare during the upcoming season. Unlike the national polls, which are based solely on the opinions of coaches and media, my preseason rankings are based on last season's performance combined with a formula determining how intact last season's team is coming into this season. The result has several teams that are expected to be here, along with several teams that will surprise everyone, myself included. These are the 25 teams which should perform best this season, with last season's final ESPN ranking in parentheses, and this season's best predicted finish also included.

Rank. (Last) Team (2011 Rec) 2012 Best (ESPN)
1. (16) Kansas State (10-3) 12-0 (21)
2. (NR) USC (10-2) 11-1 (3)
3. (1) Alabama (12-1) 12-0 (2)
4. (18) West Virginia (10-3) 11-1 (11)
5. (15) Oklahoma (10-3) 10-2 (4)
6. (9) Michigan (11-2) 10-2 (8)
7. (28) Texas (8-5) 10-2 (15)
8. (NR) Utah (8-5) 12-0 (32)
9. (24) Nebraska (9-4) 12-0 (16)
10. (23) Florida State (9-4) 12-0 (7)
11. (13) TCU (11-2) 9-3 (17)
12. (NR) Air Force (7-6) 11-1 (NR)
13. (NR) California (7-6) 9-3 (NR)
14. (NR) Vanderbilt (6-7) 10-2 (NR)
15. (27) Missouri (8-5) 10-2 (43)
16. (2) LSU (13-1) 11-1 (1)
17. (22) Clemson (10-4) 11-1 (14)
18. (NR) Pittsburgh (6-7) 10-2 (NR)
19. (8) South Carolina (11-2) 9-3 (9)
20. (36) Notre Dame (8-5) 9-3 (24)
21. (NR) Oregon State (3-9) 11-1 (NR)
22. (3) Oklahoma State (12-1) 7-5 (19)
23. (NR) Purdue (7-6) 10-2 (NR)
24. (NR) SMU (8-5) 11-1 (NR)
25. (30) Rutgers (9-4) 9-3 (41)

Teams Falling from Last Season's Final Rankings

(4) Oregon
(5) Arkansas
(6) Boise State
(7) Stanford
(10) Michigan State
(11) Wisconsin
(12) Baylor
(14) Houston
(17) Virginia Tech
(19) Southern Miss
(20) Georgia
(21) Cincinnati
(25) Brigham Young

ESPN Preseason Ranked Teams Not Ranked Above

Oregon (5)
Georgia (6)
Arkansas (10)
Wisconsin (12)
Michigan State (13)
Stanford (18)
Virginia Tech (20)
Boise State (22)
Florida (23)
Auburn (25)

Ranked Teams by Conference

Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
Pac 12 - 4
Big 10 - 3
ACC - 2
Big East - 2
MWC - 1
Ind - 1
CUSA - 1

Kansas State is the biggest surprise on this list, jumping clear to the #1 spot without even reaching the top 20 of the Coaches Poll, but the pick makes sense. They play in the deepest conference in the nation, and finished last season with just three losses, all to teams that finished in my top 10 last season. Add to that the fact that they are returning every important starting player from last season's team, and you have the makings of a powerful team. Will they finish #1? That depends on how they play on the road, where they face Oklahoma, West Virginia, and TCU this season. If they can make it through those games unscathed, we may be looking at the first non-SEC national champion in 7 years.

USC is back after several years of ineligibility due to NCAA sanctions, and they look like they are ready to resume their spot as one of the top teams in the country. They lost only twice last season, but with Matt Barkley returning for his senior season, they look poised to win the Pac 12 title yet again. Their only loss in the final 2 months of last season was a triple overtime thriller against Stanford, and they closed their season with a 50-0 thrashing of rival UCLA.

The defending national champs may have lost Trent Richardson to the NFL, but if history is any indicator, Alabama will find another great running back to take his place, just as Richardson filled the void left by Mark Ingram a few seasons ago. The SEC has won the last 6 national titles, and Alabama seems like the favorite to take the conference title this season, which puts them in the driver's seat for a possible repeat, which would be the first of the BCS era.

West Virginia moves to the Big 12 after another mediocre season in the Big East, but with a roster that is mostly intact and most of their toughest games scheduled at home, the Mountaineers could actually win the conference in their first year. The Big 12 became much stronger in the offseason, adding the conference champions from the Big East and Mountain West while getting rid of two of its middle-of-the-road teams to the SEC. Whichever team comes out of this loaded conference has a great argument for being included in the title game.

Check back over the next couple weeks as a get my opening weekend predictions posted and give you my preseason NFL rankings as well.